Alcohol intake and endogenous sex hormones in women: Meta-analysis of cohort studies and Mendelian randomization.

BACKGROUND: The mechanisms underlying alcohol-induced breast carcinogenesis are not fully understood but may involve hormonal changes. METHODS: Cross-sectional associations were investigated between self-reported alcohol intake and serum or plasma concentrations of estradiol, estrone, progesterone (in premenopausal women only), testosterone, androstenedione, dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate, and sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) in 45 431 premenopausal and 173 476 postmenopausal women. Multivariable linear regression was performed separately for UK Biobank, European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, and Endogenous Hormones and Breast Cancer Collaborative Group, and meta-analyzed the results. For testosterone and SHBG, we also conducted Mendelian randomization and colocalization using the ADH1B (alcohol dehydrogenase 1B) variant (rs1229984). RESULTS: Alcohol intake was positively, though weakly, associated with all hormones (except progesterone in premenopausal women), with increments in concentrations per 10 g/day increment in alcohol intake ranging from 1.7% for luteal estradiol to 6.6% for postmenopausal dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate. There was an inverse association of alcohol with SHBG in postmenopausal women but a small positive association in premenopausal women. Two-sample randomization identified positive associations of alcohol intake with total testosterone (difference per 10 g/day increment: 4.1%; 95% CI, 0.6-7.6) and free testosterone (7.8%; 4.1-11.5), and an inverse association with SHBG (-8.1%; -11.3% to -4.9%). Colocalization suggested a shared causal locus at ADH1B between alcohol intake and higher free testosterone and lower SHBG (posterior probability for H4, 0.81 and 0.97, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol intake was associated with small increases in sex hormone concentrations, including bioavailable fractions, which may contribute to its effect on breast cancer risk.

Diagnostic routes and time intervals for ovarian cancer in nine international jurisdictions; findings from the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP).

BACKGROUND: International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership Module 4 reports the first international comparison of ovarian cancer (OC) diagnosis routes and intervals (symptom onset to treatment start), which may inform previously reported variations in survival and stage. METHODS: Data were collated from 1110 newly diagnosed OC patients aged >40 surveyed between 2013 and 2015 across five countries (51-272 per jurisdiction), their primary-care physicians (PCPs) and cancer treatment specialists, supplement by treatment records or clinical databases. Diagnosis routes and time interval differences using quantile regression with reference to Denmark (largest survey response) were calculated. RESULTS: There were no significant jurisdictional differences in the proportion diagnosed with symptoms on the Goff Symptom Index (53%; P = 0.179) or National Institute for Health and Care Excellence NG12 guidelines (62%; P = 0.946). Though the main diagnosis route consistently involved primary-care presentation (63-86%; P = 0.068), onward urgent referral rates varied significantly (29-79%; P < 0.001). In most jurisdictions, diagnostic intervals were generally shorter and other intervals, in particular, treatment longer compared to Denmark. CONCLUSION: This study highlights key intervals in the diagnostic pathway where improvements could be made. It provides the opportunity to consider the systems and approaches across different jurisdictions that might allow for more timely ovarian cancer diagnosis and treatment.

Protein Z: A putative novel biomarker for early detection of ovarian cancer.

Ovarian cancer (OC) has the highest mortality of all gynaecological cancers. Early diagnosis offers an approach to achieving better outcomes. We conducted a blinded-evaluation of prospectively collected preclinical serum from participants in the multimodal group of the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening. Using isobaric tags (iTRAQ) we identified 90 proteins differentially expressed between OC cases and controls. A second targeted mass spectrometry analysis of twenty of these candidates identified Protein Z as a potential early detection biomarker for OC. This was further validated by ELISA analysis in 482 serial serum samples, from 80 individuals, 49 OC cases and 31 controls, spanning up to 7 years prior to diagnosis. Protein Z was significantly down-regulated up to 2 years pre-diagnosis (p = 0.000000411) in 8 of 19 Type I patients whilst in 5 Type II individuals, it was significantly up-regulated up to 4 years before diagnosis (p = 0.01). ROC curve analysis for CA-125 and CA-125 combined with Protein Z showed a statistically significant (p = 0.00033) increase in the AUC from 77 to 81% for Type I and a statistically significant (p= 0.00003) increase in the AUC from 76 to 82% for Type II. Protein Z is a novel independent early detection biomarker for Type I and Type II ovarian cancer; which can discriminate between both types. Protein Z also adds to CA-125 and potentially the Risk of Ovarian Cancer algorithm in the detection of both subtypes.

Socioeconomic indicators of health inequalities and female mortality: a nested cohort study within the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS).

BACKGROUND: Evidence is mounting that area-level socioeconomic indicators are important tools for predicting health outcomes. However, few studies have examined these alongside individual-level education. This nested cohort study within the control arm of the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) assesses the association of mutually adjusted individual (education) and area-level (Index of Multiple Deprivation-IMD 2007) socioeconomic status indicators and all-cause female mortality. METHODS: Participants resident in England who had completed both baseline (Wave 1) and follow up (Wave 2) questionnaires were included. Follow-up was through the Health and Social Care Information Centre with deaths censored on 31st December 2012. IMD, education and a range of covariates were explored. Cox regression models adjusted for all covariates were used. Sensitivity analysis using imputation was performed (1) including those with missing data and (2) on the entire cohort who had completed the baseline questionnaire. RESULTS: Of the 54,539 women resident in England who completed both Wave 1 and Wave 2 questionnaires, 4,510 had missing data. The remaining 50,029 women were included in the primary analysis. Area-level IMD was positively associated with all-cause mortality for the most deprived group compared to the least deprived (HR=1.42, CI=1.14-1.78) after adjusting for all potential confounders. Sensitivity analyses showed similar results with stronger associations in the entire cohort (HR=1.90, CI=1.68-2.16). The less educated an individual, the higher the mortality risk (test for trend p=<0.001). However, the crude effect on mortality of having no formal education compared to college/university education disappeared when adjusted for IMD rank (HR=1.08, CI=0.93-1.26). CONCLUSION: Women living in more deprived areas continue to have higher mortality even in this less deprived cohort and after adjustment for a range of potential confounders. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN22488978.

Cancer-associated autoantibodies to MUC1 and MUC4--a blinded case­control study of colorectal cancer in UK collaborative trial of ovarian cancer screening.

Recent reports suggest that autoantibodies directed to aberrantly glycosylated mucins, in particular MUC1 and MUC4, are found in patients with colorectal cancer. There is, however, limited information on the autoantibody levels before clinical diagnosis, and their utility in cancer screening in the general population. In our study, we have generated O-glycosylated synthetic MUC1 and MUC4 peptides in vitro, to mimic cancer-associated glycoforms, and displayed these on microarrays. The assay's performance was tested through an initial screening of serum samples taken from patients at the time of colorectal cancer diagnosis and healthy controls. Subsequently, the selected biomarkers were evaluated in a blinded nested case­control study using stored serum samples from among the 50,640 women randomized to the multimodal arm of the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS), where women gave annual blood samples for several years. Cases were 97 postmenopausal women who developed colorectal cancer after recruitment and were age-matched to 97 women without any history of cancer. MUC1-STn and MUC1-Core3 IgG autoantibodies identified cases with 8.2 and 13.4% sensitivity, respectively, at 95% specificity. IgA to MUC4 glycoforms were unable to discriminate between cases and controls in the UKCTOCS sera. Additional analysis was undertaken by combining the data of MUC1-STn and MUC1-Core3 with previously generated data on autoantibodies to p53 peptides, which increased the sensitivity to 32.0% at 95% specificity. These findings suggest that a combination of antibody signatures may have a role as part of a biomarker panel for the early detection of colorectal cancer.

The sex hormone system in carriers of BRCA1/2 mutations: a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Penetrance for breast cancer, ovarian cancer, or both in carriers of BRCA1/BRCA2 mutations is disproportionately high. Sex hormone dysregulation and altered end-organ hormone sensitivity might explain this organ-specific penetrance. We sought to identify differences in hormone regulation between carriers of BRCA1/2 and women who are negative for BRCA1/2 mutations. METHODS: We assessed endometrial thickness for each menstrual cycle day (as an index of hormone regulation) in 393 scans from 228 women in the UK Familial Ovarian Cancer Screening Study (UK FOCSS) known to carry either mutation and 1573 scans from 754 women known to be negative for the mutations. To quantify differences in endometrial thickness we focused on days 10-14 and days 21-26, and calculated the area under the curve. We then compared serum oestradiol and progesterone titres during these days of the menstrual cycle in the same groups. Follicular and luteal oestradiol and progesterone serum titres were grouped into quartiles and odds ratios were calculated with logistic regression. FINDINGS: Follicular phase endometrial thickness of carriers of the mutations adjusted for age and day of the menstrual cycle was higher (odds ratio [OR] 1·11, 95% CI 1·03-1·20; p=0·0063) and luteal phase endometrial thickness lower (0·90, 0·83-0·98; p=0·027) than for women negative for the mutations. Median luteal phase titres of progesterone were 121% higher (p=0·00037) in carriers than in women negative for the mutations, and for oestradiol were 33% higher (p=0·007)-ie, 59% of carriers had concentrations of serum progesterone that would have been in the top quartile of concentrations in the control group (OR 8·0, 95% CI 2·1-52·57; p=0·008). INTERPRETATION: Carriers of BRCA1/BRCA2 mutations are exposed to higher titres of oestradiol and progesterone-known risk-factors for breast cancer. Higher titres of oestradiol in carriers are compatible with this hormone having a role in ovarian carcinogenesis in such women. Our findings could not be explained by differential contraceptive pill use.

Alcohol intake and endogenous sex hormones in women: meta-analysis of cohort studies and Mendelian randomization.

Background: The mechanisms underlying alcohol-induced breast carcinogenesis are not fully understood but may involve hormonal changes. Methods: We investigated cross-sectional associations between self-reported alcohol intake and serum or plasma concentrations of oestradiol, oestrone, progesterone (in pre-menopausal women only), testosterone, androstenedione, DHEAS (dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate) and SHBG (sex hormone binding globulin) in 45 431 pre-menopausal and 173 476 post-menopausal women. We performed multivariable linear regression separately for UK Biobank, EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition) and EHBCCG (Endogenous Hormones and Breast Cancer Collaborative Group), and meta-analysed the results. For testosterone and SHBG, we also conducted two-sample Mendelian Randomization (MR) and colocalisation using the ADH1B (Alcohol Dehydrogenase 1B) variant (rs1229984). Results: Alcohol intake was positively, though weakly, associated with all hormones (except progesterone in pre-menopausal women), with increments in concentrations per 10 g/day increment in alcohol intake ranging from 1.7% for luteal oestradiol to 6.6% for post-menopausal DHEAS. There was an inverse association of alcohol with SHBG in post-menopausal women but a small positive association in pre-menopausal women. MR identified positive associations of alcohol intake with total testosterone (difference per 10 g/day increment: 4.1%; 95% CI: 0.6%, 7.6%) and free testosterone (7.8%; 4.1%, 11.5%), and an inverse association with SHBG (-8.1%; -11.3%, -4.9%). Colocalisation suggested a shared causal locus at ADH1B between alcohol intake and higher free testosterone and lower SHBG (PP4: 0.81 and 0.97 respectively). Conclusions: Alcohol intake was associated with small increases in sex hormone concentrations, including bioavailable fractions, which may contribute to its effect on breast cancer risk.

DNA methylation of polycomb group target genes in cores taken from breast cancer centre and periphery.

We previously demonstrated that methylation of neugogenic differentiation 1 (NEUROD1) gene, a polycomb group target (PCGT) gene is a predictor of response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in breast cancer. Here, we address the question whether NEUROD1 methylation provides clinical information independent from its expression level, and whether PCGT methylation is homogeneous in breast cancer. We examined: (1) NEUROD1 methylation and mRNA expression in 9 breast cancer cell lines and 63 tumour specimens, (2) DNA methylation in a training set of 55 PCGT genes taken from the centre (TUC) and periphery (TUP) of 15 breast cancer specimens, and compared this with 22 non neoplastic controls, and finally, (3) validated statistically significant genes in an independent set of 20 cases versus 18 controls. 8/9 cell lines demonstrated NEUROD1 methylation, whereas, there was only one cell-line that showed NEUROD1 expression. There was no association between methylation and expression in breast tumour specimens, with only 14% exhibiting NEUROD1 expression. Of the 55 PCGT genes analysed, 24% (13/55) were shown to be cancer specific (p < 0.05) with a receiver-operating-characteristic (ROC) area-under-the-curve (AUC) of >0.7 (range 0.71-0.95). DNA methylation accurately predicted the presence of cancer in both TUC and TUP. DNA methylation of PCGT genes predicts the presence of breast cancer and is not subject to tumour heterogeneity. Further work will reveal if methylation of PCGT genes will serve as a robust means for the clinical detection and assessment of breast cancer.

HOXA methylation in normal endometrium from premenopausal women is associated with the presence of ovarian cancer: a proof of principle study.

DNA methylation of polycomb group target (PCGT) genes is an early step in carcinogenesis and could potentially be assayed to determine cancer risk prediction. To assess whether methylation changes in PCGT genes in normal tissue is able to predict the presence of cancer, we studied HOXA gene methylation in normal endometrium from premenopausal ovarian cancer patients and age-matched healthy controls without ovarian cancer. DNA methylation of HOXA9 and HOXA11 genes in normal endometrium was associated with ovarian cancer in an initial test set and this was subsequently confirmed in independent validation sample sets. The overall risk of ovarian cancer was increased 12.3-fold by high HOXA9 methylation for all stages, and 14.8-fold for early stage ovarian cancers, independent of age, phase of the menstrual cycle and histology of the cancer. The results of this proof of principle study demonstrate the potential to detect ovarian cancer via analysis of normal endometrial cells and provide insight into the possible contribution of this novel approach in ovarian cancer risk prediction and prevention.

Complementary Longitudinal Serum Biomarkers to CA125 for Early Detection of Ovarian Cancer.

Early detection of ovarian cancer has the potential to impact mortality. A multimodal screening strategy where rising CA125 values over time, analyzed with the risk of ovarian cancer algorithm (ROCA), triggers transvaginal sonography and possible surgery has high sensitivity and specificity, but still fails to detect the 20% of early-stage cases that do not express CA125. Use of multiple biomarkers could detect cases missed by CA125. We have studied the sensitivity and lead time of a multi-marker panel (CA125, HE4, MMP-7, and CA 72-4) compared with CA125 alone. We used PRoBE design principles to select preclinical longitudinal specimens from 75 women (50 screen-positive, 25 screen-negative) who developed invasive epithelial ovarian cancer (3-5 serial specimens each) and 547 corresponding healthy controls (1-10 serial specimens each) from the ovarian cancer screening trial, UKCTOCS, in a blinded fashion. We measured the multi-marker concentrations in ultra-low serum volumes (16 µL) utilizing multiplexed bead-based immunoassays with low detection limits, high inter- and intra-assay precision, negligible cross-reactivity, and good correlation with standard immunoassays. While, at least one of the complementary biomarkers rose with CA125 in 44% (22/50) of screen-positive cases, there was no advantage in lead time over CA125. Therefore, we developed single-marker longitudinal algorithms (ROCA-like) to determine the presence of a change point to distinguish between the cases and controls. Using these algorithms, at 98% specificity, HE4 and CA72-4 identified 16% (4/25) of screen-negative cases, while MMP-7 identified none. Taken together, HE4 and CA72-4 show promise as complementary biomarkers to CA125 for longitudinal screening.

Colorectal cancer ascertainment through cancer registries, hospital episode statistics, and self-reporting compared to confirmation by clinician: A cohort study nested within the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS).

BACKGROUND: Electronic health records are frequently used for cancer epidemiology. We report on their quality for ascertaining colorectal cancer (CRC) in UK women. METHODS: Population-based, retrospective cohort study nested within the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). Postmenopausal women aged 50-74 who were diagnosed with CRC during 2001-11 following randomisation to the UKCTOCS were identified and their diagnosis confirmed with their treating clinician. The sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) of cancer and death registries, hospital episode statistics, and self-reporting were calculated by pairwise comparisons to the treating clinician's confirmation, while specificity and negative predictive value were estimated relative to expected cases. RESULTS: Notification of CRC events were received for 1,085 women as of 24 May 2011. Responses were received from 61% (660/1,085) of clinicians contacted. Nineteen women were excluded (18 no diagnosis date, one diagnosed after cut-off). Of the 641 eligible, 514 had CRC, 24 had a benign polyp, and 103 had neither diagnosis. The sensitivity of cancer registrations at one- and six-years post-diagnosis was 92 (95% CI 90-94) and 99% (97-100), respectively, with a PPV of 95% (95% CI 92/93-97). The sensitivity & PPV of cancer registrations (at one-year post-diagnosis) & hospital episode statistics combined were 98 (96-99) and 92% (89-94), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer and death registrations in the UK are a reliable resource for CRC ascertainment in women. Hospital episode statistics can supplement delays in cancer registration. Self-reporting seems less reliable.

Novel risk models for early detection and screening of ovarian cancer.

PURPOSE: Ovarian cancer (OC) is the most lethal gynaecological cancer. Early detection is required to improve patient survival. Risk estimation models were constructed for Type I (Model I) and Type II (Model II) OC from analysis of Protein Z, Fibronectin, C-reactive protein and CA125 levels in prospectively collected samples from the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). RESULTS: Model I identifies cancers earlier than CA125 alone, with a potential lead time of 3-4 years. Model II detects a number of high grade serous cancers at an earlier stage (Stage I/II) than CA125 alone, with a potential lead time of 2-3 years and assigns high risk to patients that the ROCA Algorithm classified as normal. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This nested case control study included 418 individual serum samples serially collected from 49 OC cases and 31 controls up to six years pre-diagnosis. Discriminatory logit models were built combining the ELISA results for candidate proteins with CA125 levels. CONCLUSIONS: These models have encouraging sensitivities for detecting pre-clinical ovarian cancer, demonstrating improved sensitivity compared to CA125 alone. In addition we demonstrate how the models improve on ROCA for some cases and outline their potential future use as clinical tools.

Elevation of TP53 Autoantibody Before CA125 in Preclinical Invasive Epithelial Ovarian Cancer.

Purpose: The TP53 tumor-suppressor gene is mutated in >95% of high-grade serous ovarian cancers. Detecting an autologous antibody response to TP53 that might improve early detection.Experimental Design: An immunoassay was developed to measure TP53 autoantibody in sera from 378 cases of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer and 944 age-matched healthy controls from the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom. Serial preclinical samples from cases and controls were also assayed from the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS).Results: Using a cutoff value of 78 U/mL to achieve a specificity of 97.4%, TP53 autoantibody was elevated in 30% of 50 cases from MD Anderson, 21.3% of 108 cases from the Australian Ovarian Cancer Study, and 21% of 220 cases from the UKCTOCS. Among 164 cases with rising CA125 detected with the UKCTOCS risk of ovarian cancer algorithm (ROCA), 20.7% had elevated TP53 autoantibody. In cases missed by the ROCA, 16% of cases had elevated TP53 autoantibody. Of the 34 ovarian cancer cases detected with the ROCA, TP53 autoantibody titers were elevated 11.0 months before CA125. In the 9 cases missed by the ROCA, TP53 autoantibody was elevated 22.9 months before cancer diagnosis. Similar sensitivity was obtained using assays with specific mutant and wild-type TP53.Conclusions: TP53 autoantibody levels provide a biomarker with clinically significant lead time over elevation of CA125 or an elevated ROCA value. Quantitative assessment of autoantibodies in combination with CA125 holds promise for earlier detection of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer. Clin Cancer Res; 23(19); 5912-22. ©2017 AACR.

Metabolic Profiling of Adiponectin Levels in Adults: Mendelian Randomization Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Adiponectin, a circulating adipocyte-derived protein, has insulin-sensitizing, anti-inflammatory, antiatherogenic, and cardiomyocyte-protective properties in animal models. However, the systemic effects of adiponectin in humans are unknown. Our aims were to define the metabolic profile associated with higher blood adiponectin concentration and investigate whether variation in adiponectin concentration affects the systemic metabolic profile. METHODS AND RESULTS: We applied multivariable regression in ≤5909 adults and Mendelian randomization (using cis-acting genetic variants in the vicinity of the adiponectin gene as instrumental variables) for analyzing the causal effect of adiponectin in the metabolic profile of ≤37 545 adults. Participants were largely European from 6 longitudinal studies and 1 genome-wide association consortium. In the multivariable regression analyses, higher circulating adiponectin was associated with higher high-density lipoprotein lipids and lower very-low-density lipoprotein lipids, glucose levels, branched-chain amino acids, and inflammatory markers. However, these findings were not supported by Mendelian randomization analyses for most metabolites. Findings were consistent between sexes and after excluding high-risk groups (defined by age and occurrence of previous cardiovascular event) and 1 study with admixed population. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that blood adiponectin concentration is more likely to be an epiphenomenon in the context of metabolic disease than a key determinant.

Aberrant regulation of RANKL/OPG in women at high risk of developing breast cancer.

Breast cancer is the most common female cancer, affecting approximately one in eight women during their lifetime in North America and Europe. Receptor Activator of NF-kB Ligand (RANKL), its receptor RANK and the natural antagonist osteoprotegerin (OPG) are essential regulators of bone resorption. We have initially shown that RANKL/RANK are essential for hormone-driven mammary epithelial proliferation in pregnancy and RANKL/RANK have been implicated in mammary stem cell biology. Using genetic mouse-models, we and others identified the RANKL/RANK system as a key regulator of sex hormone, BRCA1-mutation, and oncogene-driven breast cancer and we proposed that RANKL/RANK might be involved in the initiation of breast tumors. We now report that in postmenopausal women without known genetic predisposition, high RANKL and progesterone serum levels stratify a subpopulation of women at high risk of developing breast cancer 12-24 months before diagnosis (5.33-fold risk, 95%CI 1.5-25.4; P=0.02). In women with established breast cancer, we demonstrate that RANKL/OPG ratios change dependent on the presence of circulating tumor cells (CTCs). Finally, we show in a prospective human breast cancer cohort that alterations in RANKL/OPG ratios are significantly associated with breast cancer manifestation. These data indicate that the RANKL/RANK/OPG system is deregulated in post-menopausal women at high risk for breast cancer and in women with circulating tumor cells. Thus, serum levels of RANKL/OPG are potentially indicative of predisposition and progression of breast cancer in humans. Advancement of our findings towards clinical application awaits prior validation in independent patient cohorts.

Sex hormone measurements using mass spectrometry and sensitive extraction radioimmunoassay and risk of estrogen receptor negative and positive breast cancer: Case control study in UK Collaborative Cancer Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS).

INTRODUCTION: Associations of endogenous sex hormone levels and all as well as estrogen-receptor (ER)-positive breast cancers are well described. However, studies investigating their association with ER-negative tumours are limited and none use accurate assays such as mass spectrometry. METHODS: Within the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS), a nested case-control study was undertaken of postmenopausal-women who developed ER-negative (n=92) or ER-positive (n=205) breast cancer after sample donation and 297 (1:1) age-matched controls. Androgens (testosterone and androstenedione) were measured using mass spectrometry and estradiol by extraction radioimmunoassay (RIA). Bioavailable estradiol and testosterone were calculated using the total hormone level and the sex hormone-binding globulin concentration. Subjects were classified according to the quartile range among controls. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds-ratio (OR) and 95% confidence-intervals (CI) of the associations between two factors and breast cancer risk. A separate analysis was done by stratifying the women based on whether they provided their samples less than or more than 2years before diagnosis. RESULTS: Estradiol and free estradiol were significantly higher prior to diagnosis of ER-negative breast cancer compared with controls while androgens and SHBG did not show any difference. Estradiol, free estradiol, free testosterone and SHBG were significantly higher before ER-positive breast cancer diagnosis compared with controls. Women had a twofold increased ER-negative breast cancer risk if estradiol and free estradiol were in the top quartile but not androgens (testosterone and androstenedione) or SHBG. These associations remained significant only when samples closer (median 1.1y before) to diagnosis were analyzed rather than farther from diagnosis (median 2.9y before). Women had a 2.34 (95% CI: 1.21-4.61, p=0.001), 2.21 (95% CI: 1.14-4.38, p=0.001), 2 (95% CI: 1.05-3.89, p=0.005) fold increased ER-positive breast cancer risk if estradiol, free estradiol and free testosterone respectively were in the top quartile. These associations remained significant regardless of whether the samples were collected less than or more than 2years prior to diagnosis. CONCLUSION: In postmenopausal women increased estrogens but not androgens are associated with ER-negative breast cancer. Previously reported associations of estradiol and free testosterone with ER-positive breast cancer are confirmed. The use of mass spectrometry and sensitive RIA add validity to these findings.

An investigation of routes to cancer diagnosis in 10 international jurisdictions, as part of the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership: survey development and implementation.

OBJECTIVES: This paper describes the methods used in the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership Module 4 Survey (ICBPM4) which examines time intervals and routes to cancer diagnosis in 10 jurisdictions. We present the study design with defining and measuring time intervals, identifying patients with cancer, questionnaire development, data management and analyses. DESIGN AND SETTING: Recruitment of participants to the ICBPM4 survey is based on cancer registries in each jurisdiction. Questionnaires draw on previous instruments and have been through a process of cognitive testing and piloting in three jurisdictions followed by standardised translation and adaptation. Data analysis focuses on comparing differences in time intervals and routes to diagnosis in the jurisdictions. PARTICIPANTS: Our target is 200 patients with symptomatic breast, lung, colorectal and ovarian cancer in each jurisdiction. Patients are approached directly or via their primary care physician (PCP). Patients' PCPs and cancer treatment specialists (CTSs) are surveyed, and 'data rules' are applied to combine and reconcile conflicting information. Where CTS information is unavailable, audit information is sought from treatment records and databases. MAIN OUTCOMES: Reliability testing of the patient questionnaire showed that agreement was complete (κ=1) in four items and substantial (κ=0.8, 95% CI 0.333 to 1) in one item. The identification of eligible patients is sufficient to meet the targets for breast, lung and colorectal cancer. Initial patient and PCP survey response rates from the UK and Sweden are comparable with similar published surveys. Data collection was completed in early 2016 for all cancer types. CONCLUSION: An international questionnaire-based survey of patients with cancer, PCPs and CTSs has been developed and launched in 10 jurisdictions. ICBPM4 will help to further understand international differences in cancer survival by comparing time intervals and routes to cancer diagnosis.

Decreased Serum Thrombospondin-1 Levels in Pancreatic Cancer Patients Up to 24 Months Prior to Clinical Diagnosis: Association with Diabetes Mellitus.

PURPOSE: Identification of serum biomarkers enabling earlier diagnosis of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) could improve outcome. Serum protein profiles in patients with preclinical disease and at diagnosis were investigated. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Serum from cases up to 4 years prior to PDAC diagnosis and controls (UKCTOCS,n= 174) were studied, alongside samples from patients diagnosed with PDAC, chronic pancreatitis, benign biliary disease, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and healthy subjects (n= 298). Isobaric tags for relative and absolute quantification (iTRAQ) enabled comparisons of pooled serum from a test set (n= 150). Validation was undertaken using multiple reaction monitoring (MRM) and/or Western blotting in all 472 human samples and samples from a KPC mouse model. RESULTS: iTRAQ identified thrombospondin-1 (TSP-1) as reduced preclinically and in diagnosed samples. MRM confirmed significant reduction in levels of TSP-1 up to 24 months prior to diagnosis. A combination of TSP-1 and CA19-9 gave an AUC of 0.86, significantly outperforming both markers alone (0.69 and 0.77, respectively;P< 0.01). TSP-1 was also decreased in PDAC patients compared with healthy controls (P< 0.05) and patients with benign biliary obstruction (P< 0.01). Low levels of TSP-1 correlated with poorer survival, preclinically (P< 0.05) and at clinical diagnosis (P< 0.02). In PDAC patients, reduced TSP-1 levels were more frequently observed in those with confirmed diabetes mellitus (P< 0.01). Significantly lower levels were also observed in PDAC patients with diabetes compared with individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus (P= 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Circulating TSP-1 levels decrease up to 24 months prior to diagnosis of PDAC and significantly enhance the diagnostic performance of CA19-9. The influence of diabetes mellitus on biomarker behavior should be considered in future studies.

Serial Patterns of Ovarian Cancer Biomarkers in a Prediagnosis Longitudinal Dataset.

Early detection of ovarian cancer through screening may have impact on mortality from the disease. Approaches based on CA125 cut-off have not been effective. Longitudinal algorithms such as the Risk of Ovarian Cancer Algorithm (ROCA) to interpret CA125 have been shown to have higher sensitivity and specificity than a single cut-off. The aim of this study was to investigate whether other ovarian cancer-related biomarkers, Human Epididymis 4 (HE4), glycodelin, mesothelin, matrix metalloproteinase 7 (MMP7), and cytokeratin 19 fragment (CYFRA 21-1), could improve the performance of CA125 in detecting ovarian cancer earlier. Serum samples (single and serial) predating diagnosis from 47 women taking part in the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) who went on to develop primary invasive ovarian, fallopian tube, or peritoneal cancer (index cancer) (170 samples) and 179 matched controls (893 samples) were included in the study. A multiplex immunobased assay platform (Becton Dickinson) allowing simultaneous measurement of the six serum markers was used. The area under the ROC curve for the panel of three biomarkers (CA125, HE4, and glycodelin) was higher than for CA125 alone for all analysed time groups, indicating that these markers can improve on sensitivity of CA125 alone for ovarian cancer detection.

Serum CA19-9 is significantly upregulated up to 2 years before diagnosis with pancreatic cancer: implications for early disease detection.

PURPOSE: Biomarkers for the early detection of pancreatic cancer are urgently needed. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate whether increased levels of serum CA19-9, CA125, CEACAM1, and REG3A are present before clinical presentation of pancreatic cancer and to assess the performance of combined markers for early detection and prognosis. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: This nested case-control study within the UKCTOCS included 118 single and 143 serial serum samples from 154 postmenopausal women who were subsequently diagnosed with pancreatic cancer and 304 matched noncancer controls. Samples were split randomly into independent training and test sets. CA19-9, CA125, CEACAM1, and REG3A were measured using ELISA and/or CLIA. Performance of markers to detect cancers at different times before diagnosis and for prognosis was evaluated. RESULTS: At 95% specificity, CA19-9 (>37 U/mL) had a sensitivity of 68% up to 1 year, and 53% up to 2 years before diagnosis. Combining CA19-9 and CA125 improved sensitivity as CA125 was elevated (>30 U/mL) in approximately 20% of CA19-9-negative cases. CEACAM1 and REG3A were late markers adding little in combined models. Average lead times of 20 to 23 months were estimated for test-positive cases. Prediagnostic levels of CA19-9 and CA125 were associated with poor overall survival (HR, 2.69 and 3.15, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: CA19-9 and CA125 have encouraging sensitivity for detecting preclinical pancreatic cancer, and both markers can be used as prognostic tools. This work challenges the prevailing view that CA19-9 is upregulated late in the course of pancreatic cancer development.