Epidemiology and geographical variation of myasthenia gravis in the province of Pavia, Italy.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Previous studies have reported a prevalence estimate of myasthenia gravis (MG) from 7.7 to 11.1 per 100,000 inhabitants in Europe. Moreover, the study of the geographical distribution of MG should be useful to generate specific hypotheses. The aims are to estimate MG prevalence and to investigate its geographical variation in a delimited area in Northern Italy. METHODS: The primary source of data was the MG database of the Neurological Institute of Pavia and all other sources of case collection in and outside the province. We adopted a Bayesian approach to analyze MG geographical variation within the finest geographical grid. RESULTS: We identified 119 live MG prevalent cases resident in the province of Pavia on December 31, 2008. The overall crude prevalence was 24 per 100,000 inhabitants. The Bayesian analysis identified a small cluster of higher MG prevalence in the northern area of the province. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated MG prevalence sets the province of Pavia among the high-risk areas. The identification of high/low MG risk areas deserves further investigation of genetic and environmental factors possibly related to a major risk of the disease in that area.

Type or extension of intestinal metaplasia and immature/atypical "indefinite-for-dysplasia" lesions as predictors of gastric neoplasia.

At present, no information exists on the neoplastic potential of the immature hyperproliferative and atypical lesions of the gastric mucosa, which have been recently labeled "indefinite for dysplasia." In addition, uncertainties still exist concerning the risk contribution of intestinal metaplasia (IM) type and extension, as well as Helicobacter pylori infection. In this study, 471 dyspeptic patients showing IM 10% or higher (median, 40; 25th-75th percentile, 20-60) in antral, angulus, or corpus endoscopic biopsies were submitted to repeated examinations (median, 3; 2-5) over 52 (26-85) months of follow-up, during which 44 neoplastic cases were recorded. IM extension, incomplete, sulfomucin-positive, or CAR5 antigen-positive IM; H pylori infection; and indefinite-for-dysplasia lesions (IDLs), as found at first examination, all showed significant neoplastic potential. However, only IDL, ongoing H pylori infection, and patient's age retained independent predictive power in a multivariate model. On the other hand, IM extension 20% or higher proved to be more sensitive as first screening parameter for identification of subjects with increased neoplastic risk. We suggest that patients with IM, when infected, should undergo H pylori eradication to reduce their cancer risk; only those bearing IDL or very extensive IM (which strongly correlates with IDL) should be followed up with endoscopies and biopsies.

Disability and mortality in a cohort of multiple sclerosis patients: a reappraisal.

The aim of the study was to evaluate how the natural history of multiple sclerosis (MS) had changed over a 15-year period. We compared disability and mortality in a cohort of 83 MS patients hospitalised in the Neurological Institute of Pavia, northern Italy, from January 1, 1990, to December 31, 1991, with a similar cohort of 52 patients analysed in the past. After the follow-up, an unfavourable course (death or relevant disability) was observed in 41% of the patients in the new cohort, compared to 63.5% of the patients in the old one. The percentage of deceased patients was reduced from 25 to 6%. The analysis of the pooled data of the two cohorts indicates a recent tendency of firstly hospitalised patients having a shorter disease duration and a lower disability level, which could explain the relevant decrease both in mortality and disability. Finally, our findings confirmed that age at onset, early disability and a short interval between onset and secondary progression increase the risk of an unfavourable course.

Accuracy of death certificates for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis varies significantly from north to south of Italy: implications for mortality studies.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the accuracy of death certificates (DCs) for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) in different parts of Italy. Studies based on DC diagnosis for ALS have shown a reduced mortality comparing northern with southern Italy. These data are in contrast with results from other surveys on the incidence of ALS performed in Italy and other countries. METHODS: Archives of neurological clinics from northern (Milano, Monza, Pavia, and Bologna) and southern Italy including islands (Napoli, Sassari, Palermo, and Messina) were searched for patients discharged with a diagnosis of ALS in the period 1970-1995. Subjects affected by definite/probable ALS according to the Scottish Motor Neuron Disease Research Group diagnostic criteria were included. DCs were obtained from the vital statistic bureau. True positive rates (TPRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for proportions were calculated for northern and southern Italy separately. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed according to gender, age at onset, age and year of death, and interval between onset and death. RESULTS: We found 651 patients affected by definite/probable ALS; 573 of them had died by December 31, 1996. DCs were available for 566 subjects (411 from northern Italy and 155 from southern Italy). TPR was 66.7% (95% CI 61.9-71.2) for northern Italy and 51.6% (95% CI 43.5-59.7) for southern Italy (chi(2) = 10.9, p = 0.001). Logistic regression analysis showed an association between a lower accuracy of DCs and the interval between onset of symptoms and death. TPR calculations considering different death periods (1970-1982 and 1983-1996) showed comparable rates of accuracy over time. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality statistics based on official death records do not accurately reflect interregional mortality for ALS in Italy.