Daily Oral HIV Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Among Young Men Who Have Sex With Men in the United States: Cost-saving at Generic Drug Price.

BACKGROUND: Adherence and retention concerns raise questions about the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of oral HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in young men who have sex with men (YMSM). METHODS: Using an adolescent-focused simulation model, we compared annual HIV screening alone with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine-based oral PrEP with every 3-month HIV screening in YMSM (aged 15-24) at increased risk of HIV. Data derived from published sources included: age-stratified HIV incidence/100 person-years (PY) on- or off-PrEP (0.6-10.1 or 0.4-6.4), PrEP retention at 6 years (28%), transmissions by HIV RNA level (0.0-78.4/100PY) and annual costs of antiretroviral therapy ($32 000-69 000), HIV care ($3100-34 600), and PrEP program/generic drug ($900/360). Outcomes included transmissions (percent of cohort infected), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs ($), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ($/QALY). We explored the sensitivity of findings to variation in HIV incidence and drug prices. RESULTS: Compared with annual screening alone, PrEP would increase QALYs (9.58 to 9.67), reduce new infections (37% to 30%), and decrease costs (by $5000) over 10 years. PrEP would remain cost-saving for HIV incidence off-PrEP ≥5.1/100PY or annual PrEP price ≤$1200. Over a lifetime horizon, PrEP would be cost-saving for HIV incidence off-PrEP ≥1.0/100PY, across all retention assumptions examined. PrEP would not be cost-effective at HIV incidence ≤0.1/100PY, regardless of drug price, due to programmatic costs. CONCLUSIONS: In US YMSM at increased risk of HIV, generic oral PrEP and every-3-month screening would be cost-saving compared with annual screening alone, even with high discontinuation and low adherence, over a range of HIV incidences.

Projecting the Potential Clinical and Economic Impact of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Prevention Resource Reallocation in Tennessee.

BACKGROUND: In 2023, Tennessee replaced $6.2 M in US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention funding with state funds to redirect support away from men who have sex with men (MSM), transgender women (TGW), and heterosexual Black women (HSBW) and to prioritize instead first responders (FR), pregnant people (PP), and survivors of sex trafficking (SST). METHODS: We used a simulation model of HIV disease to compare the clinical impact of Current, the present allocation of condoms, preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP), and HIV testing to CDC priority risk groups (MSM/TGW/HSBW); with Reallocation, funding instead increased HIV testing and linkage of Tennessee-determined priority populations (FR/PP/SST). Key model inputs included baseline condom use (45%-49%), PrEP provision (0.1%-8%), HIV testing frequency (every 2.5-4.8 years), and 30-day HIV care linkage (57%-65%). We assumed Reallocation would reduce condom use (-4%), PrEP provision (-26%), and HIV testing (-47%) in MSM/TGW/HSBW, whereas it would increase HIV testing among FR (+47%) and HIV care linkage (to 100%/90%) among PP/SST. RESULTS: Reallocation would lead to 166 additional HIV transmissions, 190 additional deaths, and 843 life-years lost over 10 years. HIV testing reductions were most influential in sensitivity analysis; even a 24% reduction would result in 287 more deaths compared to Current. With pessimistic assumptions, we projected 1359 additional HIV transmissions, 712 additional deaths, and 2778 life-years lost over 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: Redirecting HIV prevention funding in Tennessee would greatly harm CDC priority populations while conferring minimal benefits to new priority populations.

HIV-related stigma and psychological distress in a cohort of patients receiving antiretroviral therapy in Nigeria.

Psychological distress is increasingly recognized as a barrier to engagement in HIV care, resulting in poor HIV outcomes. HIV-related stigma is a potential driver of distress in people living with HIV (PLWH). We conducted a prospective cohort study in 288 PLWH who newly initiated ART in a Nigeria. We assessed overall stigma (range 40-160) and four stigma subtypes (personalized, disclosure, negative self-image, and public stigma) at enrollment, and assessed psychological distress at enrollment, 6, and 12-months after ART initiation. We used logistic regression to assess the relationship between stigma and 12-month psychological distress. Overall stigma was high (102.34 ± 5.65) and was higher in both unmarried patients (p < 0.01) and those who had not disclosed their HIV status to anyone at enrollment (p < 0.01). Higher overall stigma (OR: 1.05, 95% CI 1.00-1.09) and personalized stigma (OR:1.08, 95% CI 1.00-1.16) were associated with higher odds of psychological distress at 12-months. Conclusions: Overall stigma levels were high in a cohort of PLWH initiating care in Nigeria. Higher stigma was associated with psychological distress. These data support the need for integration of measures to reduce stigma and psychological distress in the care of PLWH.

Willingness to trade-off years of life for an HIV cure - an experimental exploration of affective forecasting.

BACKGROUND: In the US, 1.2 million people live with HIV (PWH). Despite having near-normal life expectancies due to antiretroviral therapy (ART), many PWH seek an HIV cure, even if it means risking their lives. This willingness to take risks for a cure raises questions about "affective forecasting biases," where people tend to overestimate the positive impact of future events on their well-being. We conducted a study to test two interventions to mitigate affective forecasting in the decisions of PWH about taking HIV cure medication. METHODS: We recruited PWH to complete a 30-minute survey about their current quality of life (QoL) and the QoL they anticipate after being cured of HIV, and assigned them to either no additional intervention, to one of two interventions intended to reduce affective forecasting bias, or to both interventions: (1) a defocusing intervention designed to broaden the number of life domains people consider when imagining life changes associated with new circumstances (e.g. HIV cure); and (2) an adaptation intervention to help them gauge fading of strong emotions over time. The study design included a 2 × 2 design: defocusing (yes/no) x adaptation (yes/no) intervention. We assessed PWH's willingness to take hypothetical HIV sterilizing cure medication using the Time Trade-Off (TTO) and their quality of life predictions with WHOQOL-HIV. RESULTS: 296 PWH participated. Counter to what we had hypothesized, neither intervention significantly reduced PWH's willingness to trade time for a cure. Instead, the defocusing intervention increased their willingness to trade time (IRR 1.77, p = 0.03). Exploratory analysis revealed that PWH with lower current quality of life who received the defocusing intervention were more willing to trade time for a cure. CONCLUSION: These negative findings suggest that either these biases are difficult to overcome in the settings of HIV curative medication or other factors beyond affective forecasting biases influence willingness to participate in HIV curative studies, such as respondents' current quality of life.

COVID-19-Related Outcomes Among Group Home Residents with Serious Mental Illness in Massachusetts in the First Year of the Pandemic.

This study examined COVID-19 infection and hospitalizations among people with serious mental illness who resided in residential care group homes in Massachusetts during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors analyzed data on 2261 group home residents and COVID-19 data from the Massachusetts Department of Public Health. Outcomes included positive COVID-19 tests and COVID-19 hospitalizations March 1, 2020-June 30, 2020 (wave 1) and July 1, 2020-March 31, 2021 (wave 2). Associations between hazard of outcomes and resident and group home characteristics were estimated using multi-level Cox frailty models including home- and city-level frailties. Between March 2020 and March 2021, 182 (8%) residents tested positive for COVID-19, and 51 (2%) had a COVID-19 hospitalization. Compared with the Massachusetts population, group home residents had age-adjusted rate ratios of 3.0 (4.86 vs. 1.60 per 100) for COVID infection and 13.5 (1.99 vs. 0.15 per 100) for COVID hospitalizations during wave 1; during wave 2, the rate ratios were 0.5 (4.55 vs. 8.48 per 100) and 1.7 (0.69 vs. 0.40 per 100). In Cox models, residents in homes with more beds, higher staff-to-resident ratios, recent infections among staff and other residents, and in cities with high community transmission risk had greater hazard of COVID-19 infection. Policies and interventions that target group home-specific risks are needed to mitigate adverse communicable disease outcomes in this population.Clinical Trial Registration Number This study provides baseline (i.e., pre-randomization) data from a clinical trial study NCT04726371.

A Growing Number of Men Who Have Sex With Men Aging With HIV (20212031): A Comparison of Two Microsimulation Models.

BACKGROUND: Men who have sex with men (MSM) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) are at risk for multimorbidity as life expectancy increases. Simulation models can project population sizes and age distributions to assist with health policy planning. METHODS: We populated the CEPAC-US model with CDC data to project the HIV epidemic among MSM in the United States. The PEARL model was predominantly informed by NA-ACCORD data (20092017). We compared projected population sizes and age distributions of MSM receiving ART (20212031) and investigated how parameters and assumptions affected results. RESULTS: We projected an aging and increasing population of MSM on ART: CEPAC-US, mean age 48.6 (SD 13.7) years in 2021 versus 53.9 (SD 15.0) years in 2031; PEARL, 46.7 (SD 13.2) years versus 49.2 (SD 14.6) years. We projected 548 800 MSM on ART (147 020 65 years) in 2031 (CEPAC-US) and 599 410 (113 400 65 years) (PEARL). Compared with PEARL, CEPAC-US projected a smaller population of MSM on ART by 2031 and a slower increase in population size, driven by higher estimates of disengagement in care and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from two structurally distinct microsimulation models suggest that the MSM population receiving ART in the United States will increase and age over the next decade. Subgroup-specific data regarding engagement in care and mortality can improve projections and inform health care policy planning.

Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Linkage to HIV Care Interventions in the United States, Canada, and Ukraine (2010-2021).

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of interventions targeting linkage to HIV care in the US, Canada, and Europe. We searched six databases (PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science and CINAHL). Inclusion criteria were English language studies in adults in the US, Canada, or Europe, published January 1, 2010 to January 1, 2021. We synthesized interventions by type and linkage to care outcome. The outcome was cumulative incidence of 3-month linkage. We estimated cumulative incidence ratios of linkage with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We screened 945 studies; 13 met selection criteria (n = 1 from Canada, n = 1 from Ukraine, n = 11 from the US) and were included after full text review (total 37,549 individuals). The cumulative incidence of 3-month linkage in the intervention group was 0.82 (95% CI 0.68-0.94) and control group 0.71 (95% CI 0.50-0.90); cIR of linkage for intervention versus control was 1.30 (95% CI 1.13, 1.49). Interventions to improve linkage to care after HIV diagnosis warrant further attention.

Impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis uptake among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men in urban centers in Brazil: a modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Men who have sex with men (MSM) in Brazil remain disproportionately affected by HIV. We estimated the potential incidence reduction by five years with increased uptake of publicly-funded, daily, oral tenofovir/emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among MSM using the Cost Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications microsimulation model. We used national data, local studies, and literature to inform model parameters for three cities: Rio de Janeiro, Salvador, and Manaus. RESULTS: In Rio de Janero, a PrEP intervention achieving 10% uptake within 60 months would decrease incidence by 2.3% whereas achieving 60% uptake within 24 months would decrease incidence by 29.7%; results were similar for Salvador and Manaus. In sensitivity analyses, decreasing mean age at PrEP initiation from 33 to 21 years increased incidence reduction by 34%; a discontinuation rate of 25% per year decreased it by 12%. CONCLUSION: Targeting PrEP to young MSM and minimizing discontinuation could substantially increase PrEP's impact.

Psychological Distress Increases 30-Fold Among People with HIV in the First Year on ART in Nigeria-a Call for Integrated Mental Health Services.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have longitudinally assessed psychological distress among people with HIV (PWH) initiating ART in resource-limited settings. METHOD: Baseline, 6-month, and 12-month psychological distress were measured in a Nigerian cohort newly initiating therapy; the relationship between baseline factors and psychological distress at 12 months was assessed; and the association between psychological distress at 12 months and care retention or immunologic failure was determined. RESULTS: Among 563 patients, median age was 38 years (IQR: 33-46 years), 62% were female, and 51% were married. Psychological distress increased from 3% at baseline to 34% at 12 months. Age (aOR 1.28, 95% CI 1.06-1.56), female sex (aOR 2.89, 95% CI 1.93-4.33), lack of disclosure (aOR 4.32, 95% CI 2.48-7.51), and time on ART (6 months [aOR 6.91, 95% CI 3.14-15.18] and 12 months [aOR 32.63, 95% CI 16.54-64.36]) were associated with psychological distress while being married (OR 0.42, 95% CI 0.30-0.61) was associated with reduced odds. Tweve-month psychological distress was associated with increased risk of immunologic failure (aOR 2.22, 95% CI 1.31-3.82). CONCLUSION: The risk of psychological distress increased 30-fold in the first year on therapy in PWH in Nigeria.

Cost-Effectiveness of Long-Acting Injectable HIV Preexposure Prophylaxis in the United States : A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 083 trial demonstrated the superiority of long-acting injectable cabotegravir (CAB-LA) compared with oral emtricitabine-tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (F/TDF) for HIV preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP). OBJECTIVE: To identify the maximum price premium (that is, greatest possible price differential) that society should be willing to accept for the additional benefits of CAB-LA over tenofovir-based PrEP among men who have sex with men and transgender women (MSM/TGW) in the United States. DESIGN: Simulation, cost-effectiveness analysis. DATA SOURCES: Trial and published data, including estimated HIV incidence (5.32, 1.33, and 0.26 per 100 person-years for off PrEP, generic F/TDF and branded emtricitabine-tenofovir alafenamide (F/TAF), and CAB-LA, respectively); 28% 6-year PrEP retention. Annual base-case drug costs: $360 and $16 800 for generic F/TDF and branded F/TAF. Fewer side effects with branded F/TAF versus generic F/TDF were assumed. TARGET POPULATION: 476 700 MSM/TGW at very high risk for HIV (VHR). TIME HORIZON: 10 years. PERSPECTIVE: Health care system. INTERVENTION: CAB-LA versus generic F/TDF or branded F/TAF for HIV PrEP. OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary transmissions, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs (2020 U.S. dollars), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs; U.S. dollars per QALY), maximum price premium for CAB-LA versus tenofovir-based PrEP. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: Compared with generic F/TDF (or branded F/TAF), CAB-LA increased life expectancy by 28 000 QALYs (26 000 QALYs) among those at VHR. Branded F/TAF cost more per QALY gained than generic F/TDF compared with no PrEP. At 10 years, CAB-LA could achieve an ICER of at most $100 000 per QALY compared with generic F/TDF at a maximum price premium of $3700 per year over generic F/TDF (CAB-LA price <$4100 per year). RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: In a PrEP-eligible population at high risk for HIV, rather than at VHR (n = 1 906 800; off PrEP incidence: 1.54 per 100 person-years), CAB-LA could achieve an ICER of at most $100 000 per QALY versus generic F/TDF at a maximum price premium of $1100 per year over generic F/TDF (CAB-LA price <$1500 per year). LIMITATION: Uncertain clinical and economic benefits of averting future transmissions. CONCLUSION: Effective oral PrEP limits the additional price society should be willing to pay for CAB-LA. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: FHI 360; Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development; National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; National Institute on Drug Abuse; the Reich HIV Scholar Award; and the Steve and Deborah Gorlin MGH Research Scholars Award.

Comparative Effectiveness of Interventions to Improve the HIV Continuum of Care and HIV Preexposure Prophylaxis in Kenya: A Model-Based Analysis.

BACKGROUND: In Western Kenya up to one-quarter of the adult population was human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected in 2012. The Ministry of Health, Médecins Sans Frontières, and partners implemented an HIV program that surpassed the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets. In this generalized epidemic, we compared the effectiveness of preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with improving continuum of care. METHODS: We developed a dynamic microsimulation model to project HIV incidence and infections averted to 2030. We modeled 3 strategies compared to a 90-90-90 continuum of care base case: (1) scaling up the continuum of care to 95-95-95, (2) PrEP targeting young adults with 10% coverage, and (3) scaling up to 95-95-95 and PrEP combined. RESULTS: In the base case, by 2030 HIV incidence was 0.37/100 person-years. Improving continuum levels to 95-95-95 averted 21.5% of infections, PrEP averted 8.0%, and combining 95-95-95 and PrEP averted 31.8%. Sensitivity analysis showed that PrEP coverage had to exceed 20% to avert as many infections as reaching 95-95-95. CONCLUSIONS: In a generalized HIV epidemic with continuum of care levels at 90-90-90, improving the continuum to 95-95-95 is more effective than providing PrEP. Continued improvement in the continuum of care will have the greatest impact on decreasing new HIV infections.

Clearance of Hepatitis B e Antigen in Untreated Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Infection: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: In people with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, persistence of hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) is associated with clinical progression and need for treatment. HBeAg loss represents partial immune control and is a critical event in the natural history of chronic HBV. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies that report HBeAg loss among people with untreated chronic HBV. We evaluated HBeAg loss using a random-effects model and conducted subanalysis on region. RESULTS: We screened 10 560 publications, performed 196 full-text analyses, and included 26 studies for meta-analysis. The pooled rate of HBeAg loss was 6.46/100 person-years (PYs) (95% confidence interval, 5.17-8.08). Meta-regression showed that older age of participants and studies in Europe were associated with higher rate of HBeAg loss. Rates per 100 PYs were 7.43 (95% confidence interval, 6.30-8.75; 1 study) in Africa, 3.24 (2.61--4.02; 1 study) in the Eastern Mediterranean, 13.67 (11.21-16.66; 4 studies) in Europe, 7.34 (4.61--11.70; 5 studies) in North America, and 5.53 (4.05--7.55; 15 studies) in the Western Pacific. CONCLUSIONS: Spontaneous HBeAg loss occurs at a rate of 6.46/100 PYs. Variations by region and age group may reflect epidemiological, immunological, or HBV genotype-related differences.

Cost-effectiveness of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccination in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

BACKGROUND: Despite the advent of safe and effective coronavirus disease 2019 vaccines, pervasive inequities in global vaccination persist. METHODS: We projected health benefits and donor costs of delivering vaccines for up to 60% of the population in 91 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We modeled a highly contagious (Re at model start, 1.7), low-virulence (infection fatality ratio [IFR], 0.32%) "Omicron-like" variant and a similarly contagious "severe" variant (IFR, 0.59%) over 360 days, accounting for country-specific age structure and healthcare capacity. Costs included vaccination startup (US$630 million) and per-person procurement and delivery (US$12.46/person vaccinated). RESULTS: In the Omicron-like scenario, increasing current vaccination coverage to achieve at least 15% in each of the 91 LMICs would prevent 11 million new infections and 120 000 deaths, at a cost of US$0.95 billion, for an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of US$670/year of life saved (YLS). Increases in vaccination coverage to 60% would additionally prevent up to 68 million infections and 160 000 deaths, with ICERs

College Campuses and COVID-19 Mitigation: Clinical and Economic Value.

BACKGROUND: Colleges in the United States are determining how to operate safely amid the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. OBJECTIVE: To examine the clinical outcomes, cost, and cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 mitigation strategies on college campuses. DESIGN: The Clinical and Economic Analysis of COVID-19 interventions (CEACOV) model, a dynamic microsimulation model, was used to examine alternative mitigation strategies. The CEACOV model tracks infections accrued by students and faculty, accounting for community transmissions. DATA SOURCES: Data from published literature were used to obtain parameters related to COVID-19 and contact-hours. TARGET POPULATION: Undergraduate students and faculty at U.S. colleges. TIME HORIZON: One semester (105 days). PERSPECTIVE: Modified societal. INTERVENTION: COVID-19 mitigation strategies, including social distancing, masks, and routine laboratory screening. OUTCOME MEASURES: Infections among students and faculty per 5000 students and per 1000 faculty, isolation days, tests, costs, cost per infection prevented, and cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: Among students, mitigation strategies reduced COVID-19 cases from 3746 with no mitigation to 493 with extensive social distancing and masks, and further to 151 when laboratory testing was added among asymptomatic persons every 3 days. Among faculty, these values were 164, 28, and 25 cases, respectively. Costs ranged from about $0.4 million for minimal social distancing to about $0.9 million to $2.1 million for strategies involving laboratory testing ($10 per test), depending on testing frequency. Extensive social distancing with masks cost $170 per infection prevented ($49 200 per QALY) compared with masks alone. Adding routine laboratory testing increased cost per infection prevented to between $2010 and $17 210 (cost per QALY gained, $811 400 to $2 804 600). RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: Results were most sensitive to test costs. LIMITATION: Data are from multiple sources. CONCLUSION: Extensive social distancing with a mandatory mask-wearing policy can prevent most COVID-19 cases on college campuses and is very cost-effective. Routine laboratory testing would prevent 96% of infections and require low-cost tests to be economically attractive. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institutes of Health.

Clinical Impact, Costs, and Cost-effectiveness of Expanded Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Testing in Massachusetts.

BACKGROUND: We projected the clinical and economic impact of alternative testing strategies on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) incidence and mortality in Massachusetts using a microsimulation model. METHODS: We compared 4 testing strategies: (1) hospitalized: polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing only for patients with severe/critical symptoms warranting hospitalization; (2) symptomatic: PCR for any COVID-19-consistent symptoms, with self-isolation if positive; (3) symptomatic + asymptomatic once: symptomatic and 1-time PCR for the entire population; and (4) symptomatic + asymptomatic monthly: symptomatic with monthly retesting for the entire population. We examined effective reproduction numbers (Re = 0.9-2.0) at which policy conclusions would change. We assumed homogeneous mixing among the Massachusetts population (excluding those residing in long-term care facilities). We used published data on disease progression and mortality, transmission, PCR sensitivity/specificity (70%/100%), and costs. Model-projected outcomes included infections, deaths, tests performed, hospital-days, and costs over 180 days, as well as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs, $/quality-adjusted life-year [QALY]). RESULTS: At Re = 0.9, symptomatic + asymptomatic monthly vs hospitalized resulted in a 64% reduction in infections and a 46% reduction in deaths, but required >66-fold more tests/day with 5-fold higher costs. Symptomatic + asymptomatic monthly had an ICER <$100 000/QALY only when Re ≥1.6; when test cost was ≤$3, every 14-day testing was cost-effective at all Re examined. CONCLUSIONS: Testing people with any COVID-19-consistent symptoms would be cost-saving compared to testing only those whose symptoms warrant hospital care. Expanding PCR testing to asymptomatic people would decrease infections, deaths, and hospitalizations. Despite modest sensitivity, low-cost, repeat screening of the entire population could be cost-effective in all epidemic settings.

Cost-effectiveness of Frequent HIV Screening Among High-risk Young Men Who Have Sex With Men in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Of new HIV infections in the US, 20% occur among young men who have sex with men (YMSM, ages 13-24), but >50% of YMSM with HIV are unaware of their status. Using Adolescent Medicine Trials Network for HIV/AIDS Interventions (ATN) data, we projected the clinical benefit and cost-effectiveness of frequent HIV screening among high-risk YMSM from age 15. METHODS: Using a mathematical simulation, we examined 3 screening strategies: Yearly, 6-monthly, and 3-monthly, each in addition to the Status quo (SQ, 0.7-10.3% screened/year, stratified by age). We used published data (YMSM-specific when available) including: HIV incidences (0.91-6.41/100PY); screen acceptance (80%), linkage-to-care/antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation (76%), HIV transmission (0.3-86.1/100PY, by HIV RNA), monthly ART costs ($2290-$3780), and HIV per-screen costs ($38). Projected outcomes included CD4 count at diagnosis, primary HIV transmissions from ages 15-30, quality-adjusted life expectancy, costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs, $/quality-adjusted life-year saved [QALY]; threshold ≤$100 000/QALY). RESULTS: Compared to SQ, all strategies increased projected CD4 at diagnosis (296 to 477-515 cells/µL) and quality-adjusted life expectancy from age 15 (44.4 to 48.3-48.7 years) among YMSM acquiring HIV. Compared to SQ, all strategies increased discounted lifetime cost for the entire population ($170 800 to $178 100-$185 000/person). Screening 3-monthly was cost-effective (ICER: $4500/QALY) compared to SQ and reduced primary transmissions through age 30 by 40%. Results were most sensitive to transmission rates; excluding the impact of transmissions, screening Yearly was ≤$100 000/QALY (ICER: $70 900/QALY). CONCLUSIONS: For high-risk YMSM in the US, HIV screening 3-monthly compared to less frequent screening will improve clinical outcomes and be cost-effective.

Cost-effectiveness of a Novel Lipoarabinomannan Test for Tuberculosis in Patients With Human Immunodeficiency Virus.

BACKGROUND: A novel urine lipoarabinomannan assay (FujiLAM) has higher sensitivity and higher cost than the first-generation AlereLAM assay. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of FujiLAM for tuberculosis testing among hospitalized people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), irrespective of symptoms. METHODS: We used a microsimulation model to project clinical and economic outcomes of 3 testing strategies: (1) sputum Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert), (2) sputum Xpert plus urine AlereLAM (Xpert+AlereLAM), (3) sputum Xpert plus urine FujiLAM (Xpert+FujiLAM). The modeled cohort matched that of a 2-country clinical trial. We applied diagnostic yields from a retrospective study (yields for Xpert/Xpert+AlereLAM/Xpert+FujiLAM among those with CD4 <200 cells/µL: 33%/62%/70%; among those with CD4 ≥200 cells/µL: 33%/35%/47%). Costs of Xpert/AlereLAM/FujiLAM were US$15/3/6 (South Africa) and $25/3/6 (Malawi). Xpert+FujiLAM was considered cost-effective if its incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (US$/year-of-life saved) was <$940 (South Africa) and <$750 (Malawi). We varied key parameters in sensitivity analysis and performed a budget impact analysis of implementing FujiLAM countrywide. RESULTS: Compared with Xpert+AlereLAM, Xpert+FujiLAM increased life expectancy by 0.2 years for those tested in South Africa and Malawi. Xpert+FujiLAM was cost-effective in both countries. Xpert+FujiLAM for all patients remained cost-effective compared with sequential testing and CD4-stratified testing strategies. FujiLAM use added 3.5% (South Africa) and 4.7% (Malawi) to 5-year healthcare costs of tested patients, primarily reflecting ongoing HIV treatment costs among survivors. CONCLUSIONS: FujiLAM with Xpert for tuberculosis testing in hospitalized people with HIV is likely to increase life expectancy and be cost-effective at the currently anticipated price in South Africa and Malawi. Additional studies should evaluate FujiLAM in clinical practice settings.

Modeling Adherence Interventions Among Youth with HIV in the United States: Clinical and Economic Projections.

The Adolescent Medicine Trials Network for HIV/AIDS Interventions is evaluating treatment adherence interventions (AI) to improve virologic suppression (VS) among youth with HIV (YWH). Using a microsimulation model, we compared two strategies: standard-of-care (SOC) and a hypothetical 12-month AI that increased cohort-level VS in YWH in care by an absolute ten percentage points and cost $100/month/person. Projected outcomes included primary HIV transmissions, deaths and life-expectancy, lifetime HIV-related costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs, $/quality-adjusted life-year [QALY]). Compared to SOC, AI would reduce HIV transmissions by 15% and deaths by 12% at 12 months. AI would improve discounted life expectancy/person by 8 months at an added lifetime cost/person of $5,300, resulting in an ICER of $7,900/QALY. AI would be cost-effective at $2,000/month/person or with efficacies as low as a 1 percentage point increase in VS. YWH-targeted adherence interventions with even modest efficacy could improve life expectancy, prevent onward HIV transmissions, and be cost-effective.

RESUMEN: La Red de Ensayos Médicos sobre Adolescentes para Realizar Intervenciones sobre el VIH/SIDA está evaluando intervenciones de adherencia (IAs) al tratamiento para mejorar la supresión virológica (SV) entre los jóvenes con VIH (JCV). Usando un modelo de microsimulación, comparamos dos estrategias: cuidado convencional (CC) y una intervención de adherencia hipotética durando 12 meses que aumentaría la SV a nivel de cohorte entre JCV en tratamiento por 10 puntos de porcentuales y que costaría US$ 100/mes/persona. Resultados proyectados incluyeron transmisiones de VIH primarias, muertes y esperanza de vida, costos de por vida asociados con el VIH, y razones incrementales de costo-efectividad (RICEs, $/año de vida ajustado por la calidad [AVAC]). Comparado al CC, la IA reduciría transmisiones de VIH por 15% y muertes por 12% a los 12 meses. La IA mejoraría esperanza de vida descontada/persona por 8 meses a un costo de por vida adicional/persona de US$ 5.300, resultando en una RICE de US$ 7.900/AVAC. La IA sería costo-efectiva a un costo de US$ 2.000/mes/persona o si mejorara SV por al menos un punto porcentual. Intervenciones de adherencia dirigidas a jóvenes con una eficacia incluso modesta podrían mejorar esperanza de vida, prevenir transmisiones de VIH, y ser costo-efectivas.

Comparative Pricing of Branded Tenofovir Alafenamide-Emtricitabine Relative to Generic Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate-Emtricitabine for HIV Preexposure Prophylaxis: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

Background: Tenofovir alafenamide-emtricitabine (F/TAF) was recently approved as a noninferior and potentially safer option than tenofovir disoproxil fumarate-emtricitabine (F/TDF) for HIV preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in the United States. Objective: To estimate the greatest possible clinical benefits and economic savings attributable to the improved safety profile of F/TAF and the maximum price payers should be willing to pay for F/TAF over generic F/TDF. Design: Cost-effectiveness analysis. Data Sources: Published literature on F/TDF safety (in persons with and those without HIV) and the cost and quality-of-life effects of fractures and end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Target Population: Age-stratified U.S. men who have sex with men (MSM) using PrEP. Time Horizon: Five years. Perspective: Health care sector. Intervention: Preexposure prophylaxis with F/TAF versus F/TDF. Outcome Measures: Fractures averted, cases of ESRD averted, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) saved, costs, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), and maximum justifiable price for F/TAF compared with generic F/TDF. Results of Base-Case Analysis: Over a 5-year horizon, compared with F/TDF, F/TAF averted 2101 fractures and 25 cases of ESRD for the 123 610 MSM receiving PrEP, with an ICER of more than $7 million per QALY. At a 50% discount for generic F/TDF ($8300 per year) and a societal willingness to pay up to $100 000 per QALY, the maximum fair price for F/TAF was $8670 per year. Results of Sensitivity Analysis: Among persons older than 55 years, the ICER for F/TAF remained more than $3 million per QALY and the maximum permissible fair price for F/TAF was $8970 per year. Results were robust to alternative time horizons and PrEP-using population sizes. Limitation: Intermittent use and on-demand PrEP were not considered. Conclusion: In the presence of a generic F/TDF alternative, the improved safety of F/TAF is worth no more than an additional $370 per person per year. Primary Funding Source: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institute on Drug Abuse, National Institute of Mental Health, and Massachusetts General Hospital Executive Committee on Research.

The Cost-effectiveness of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Preexposure Prophylaxis and HIV Testing Strategies in High-risk Groups in India.

BACKGROUND: The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic in India is concentrated among 3.1 million men who have sex with men (MSM) and 1.1 million people who inject drugs (PWID), with a mean incidence of 0.9-1.4 per 100 person-years. We examined the cost-effectiveness of both preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and HIV testing strategies for MSM and PWID in India. METHODS: We populated an HIV microsimulation model with India-specific data and projected clinical and economic outcomes of 7 strategies for MSM/PWID, including status quo; a 1-time HIV test; routine HIV testing every 3, 6, or 12 months; and PrEP with HIV testing every 3 or 6 months. We used a willingness-to-pay threshold of US$1950, the 2017 Indian per capita gross domestic product, to define cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: HIV testing alone increased life expectancy by 0.07-0.30 years in MSM; PrEP added approximately 0.90 life-years to status quo. Results were similar in PWID. PrEP with 6-month testing was cost-effective for both MSM (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER], $1000/year of life saved [YLS]) and PWID (ICER, $500/YLS). Results were most sensitive to HIV incidence. PrEP with 6-month testing would increase HIV-related expenditures by US$708 million (MSM) and US$218 million (PWID) over 5 years compared to status quo. CONCLUSIONS: While the World Health Organization recommends PrEP with quarterly HIV testing, our analysis identifies PrEP with semiannual testing as the cost-effective HIV prevention strategy for Indian MSM and PWID. Since nationwide scale-up would require a substantial fiscal investment, areas of highest HIV incidence may be the appropriate initial targets for PrEP scale-up.