Bat pluripotent stem cells reveal unusual entanglement between host and viruses.

Bats are distinctive among mammals due to their ability to fly, use laryngeal echolocation, and tolerate viruses. However, there are currently no reliable cellular models for studying bat biology or their response to viral infections. Here, we created induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) from two species of bats: the wild greater horseshoe bat (Rhinolophus ferrumequinum) and the greater mouse-eared bat (Myotis myotis). The iPSCs from both bat species showed similar characteristics and had a gene expression profile resembling that of cells attacked by viruses. They also had a high number of endogenous viral sequences, particularly retroviruses. These results suggest that bats have evolved mechanisms to tolerate a large load of viral sequences and may have a more intertwined relationship with viruses than previously thought. Further study of bat iPSCs and their differentiated progeny will provide insights into bat biology, virus host relationships, and the molecular basis of bats' special traits.

Evaluation of respondent-driven sampling in seven studies of people who use drugs from rural populations: findings from the Rural Opioid Initiative.

BACKGROUND: Accurate prevalence estimates of drug use and its harms are important to characterize burden and develop interventions to reduce negative health outcomes and disparities. Lack of a sampling frame for marginalized/stigmatized populations, including persons who use drugs (PWUD) in rural settings, makes this challenging. Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is frequently used to recruit PWUD. However, the validity of RDS-generated population-level prevalence estimates relies on assumptions that should be evaluated. METHODS: RDS was used to recruit PWUD across seven Rural Opioid Initiative studies between 2018-2020. To evaluate RDS assumptions, we computed recruitment homophily and design effects, generated convergence and bottleneck plots, and tested for recruitment and degree differences. We compared sample proportions with three RDS-adjusted estimators (two variations of RDS-I and RDS-II) for five variables of interest (past 30-day use of heroin, fentanyl, and methamphetamine; past 6-month homelessness; and being positive for hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibody) using linear regression with robust confidence intervals. We compared regression estimates for the associations between HCV positive antibody status and (a) heroin use, (b) fentanyl use, and (c) age using RDS-1 and RDS-II probability weights and no weights using logistic and modified Poisson regression and random-effects meta-analyses. RESULTS: Among 2,842 PWUD, median age was 34 years and 43% were female. Most participants (54%) reported opioids as their drug of choice, however regional differences were present (e.g., methamphetamine range: 4-52%). Many recruitment chains were not long enough to achieve sample equilibrium. Recruitment homophily was present for some variables. Differences with respect to recruitment and degree varied across studies. Prevalence estimates varied only slightly with different RDS weighting approaches, most confidence intervals overlapped. Variations in measures of association varied little based on weighting approach. CONCLUSIONS: RDS was a useful recruitment tool for PWUD in rural settings. However, several violations of key RDS assumptions were observed which slightly impacts estimation of proportion although not associations.

Use of Next-Generation Sequencing in a State-Wide Strategy of HIV-1 Surveillance: Impact of the SARS-COV-2 Pandemic on HIV-1 Diagnosis and Transmission.

BACKGROUND: The ongoing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic posed an unpreceded threat to the management of other pandemics such as human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) in the United States. The full impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on the HIV-1 pandemic needs to be evaluated. METHODS: All individuals with newly reported HIV-1 diagnoses from NC State Laboratory of Public Health were enrolled in this prospective observational study, 2018-2021. We used a sequencing-based recency assay to identify recent HIV-1 infections and to determine the days postinfection (DPI) for each person at the time of diagnosis. RESULTS: Sequencing used diagnostic serum samples from 814 individuals with new HIV-1 diagnoses spanning this 4-year period. Characteristics of individuals diagnosed in 2020 differed from those in other years. People of color diagnosed in 2021 were on average 6 months delayed in their diagnosis compared to those diagnosed in 2020. There was a trend that genetic networks were more known for individuals diagnosed in 2021. We observed no major integrase resistance mutations over the course of the study. CONCLUSIONS: SARS-CoV-2 pandemic may contribute to the spread of HIV-1. Public health resources need to focus on restoring HIV-1 testing and interrupting active, ongoing, transmission.

Intersection of Syphilis and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Networks to Identify Opportunities to Enhance HIV Prevention.

BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and syphilis infection continue at disproportionate rates among minority men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States. The integration of HIV genetic clustering with partner services can provide important insight into local epidemic trends to guide interventions and control efforts. METHODS: We evaluated contact networks of index persons defined as minority men and transgender women diagnosed with early syphilis and/or HIV infection between 2018 and 2020 in 2 North Carolina regions. HIV clusters were constructed from pol sequences collected through statewide surveillance. A combined "HIV-risk" network, which included persons with any links (genetic or sexual contact) to HIV-positive persons, was evaluated by component size, demographic factors, and HIV viral suppression. RESULTS: In total, 1289 index persons were identified and 55% named 1153 contacts. Most index persons were Black (88%) and young (median age 30 years); 70% had early syphilis and 43% had prevalent HIV infection. Most people with HIV (65%) appeared in an HIV cluster. The combined HIV-risk network (1590 contact network and 1500 cluster members) included 287 distinct components; however, 1586 (51%) were in a single component. Fifty-five percent of network members with HIV had no evidence of viral suppression. Overall, fewer index persons needed to be interviewed to identify 1 HIV-positive member without viral suppression (1.3 vs 4.0 for contact tracing). CONCLUSIONS: Integration of HIV clusters and viral loads illuminate networks with high HIV prevalence, indicating recent and ongoing transmission. Interventions intensified toward these networks may efficiently reach persons for HIV prevention and care re-engagement.

Near Real-Time Identification of Recent Human Immunodeficiency Virus Transmissions, Transmitted Drug Resistance Mutations, and Transmission Networks by Multiplexed Primer ID-Next-Generation Sequencing in North Carolina.

BACKGROUND: The identification of recent human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) 1 infections among people with new HIV diagnoses is important to both tailoring and assessing the impact of HIV-1 prevention strategies. METHODS: We developed a multiplexed Primer ID-next-generation sequencing approach to identify recent infections by measuring the intrahost viral diversity over multiple regions of the HIV-1 genome, in addition to detecting drug resistance mutations (DRMs) and phylogenetically linked clusters. We summarize the field implementation of this all-in-one platform among persons with newly diagnosed HIV-1 by the North Carolina State Laboratory of Public Health in 2018. RESULTS: Overall, recent infection was identified in 94 (35%) of 268 patients with new HIV diagnoses. People <30 years old, and people who inject drugs were more likely to have diagnoses of recent infection. The reverse-transcriptase region K103N was the most commonly detected DRM (prevalence, approximately 15%). We found a total of 28 clusters, and persons with recent infection were more likely to be cluster members than were those with chronic infections (P = .03). CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate the rapid identification of recent infection and pretreatment DRMs coupled with cluster analysis that will allow prioritization of linkage to care, treatment, and prevention interventions to those at highest risk of onward transmission.

HyPhy 2.5-A Customizable Platform for Evolutionary Hypothesis Testing Using Phylogenies.

HYpothesis testing using PHYlogenies (HyPhy) is a scriptable, open-source package for fitting a broad range of evolutionary models to multiple sequence alignments, and for conducting subsequent parameter estimation and hypothesis testing, primarily in the maximum likelihood statistical framework. It has become a popular choice for characterizing various aspects of the evolutionary process: natural selection, evolutionary rates, recombination, and coevolution. The 2.5 release (available from www.hyphy.org) includes a completely re-engineered computational core and analysis library that introduces new classes of evolutionary models and statistical tests, delivers substantial performance and stability enhancements, improves usability, streamlines end-to-end analysis workflows, makes it easier to develop custom analyses, and is mostly backward compatible with previous HyPhy releases.

Identification of Hidden Population Structure in Time-Scaled Phylogenies.

Population structure influences genealogical patterns, however, data pertaining to how populations are structured are often unavailable or not directly observable. Inference of population structure is highly important in molecular epidemiology where pathogen phylogenetics is increasingly used to infer transmission patterns and detect outbreaks. Discrepancies between observed and idealized genealogies, such as those generated by the coalescent process, can be quantified, and where significant differences occur, may reveal the action of natural selection, host population structure, or other demographic and epidemiological heterogeneities. We have developed a fast non-parametric statistical test for detection of cryptic population structure in time-scaled phylogenetic trees. The test is based on contrasting estimated phylogenies with the theoretically expected phylodynamic ordering of common ancestors in two clades within a coalescent framework. These statistical tests have also motivated the development of algorithms which can be used to quickly screen a phylogenetic tree for clades which are likely to share a distinct demographic or epidemiological history. Epidemiological applications include identification of outbreaks in vulnerable host populations or rapid expansion of genotypes with a fitness advantage. To demonstrate the utility of these methods for outbreak detection, we applied the new methods to large phylogenies reconstructed from thousands of HIV-1 partial pol sequences. This revealed the presence of clades which had grown rapidly in the recent past and was significantly concentrated in young men, suggesting recent and rapid transmission in that group. Furthermore, to demonstrate the utility of these methods for the study of antimicrobial resistance, we applied the new methods to a large phylogeny reconstructed from whole genome Neisseria gonorrhoeae sequences. We find that population structure detected using these methods closely overlaps with the appearance and expansion of mutations conferring antimicrobial resistance. [Antimicrobial resistance; coalescent; HIV; population structure.].

Fast hierarchical Bayesian analysis of population structure.

We present fastbaps, a fast solution to the genetic clustering problem. Fastbaps rapidly identifies an approximate fit to a Dirichlet process mixture model (DPM) for clustering multilocus genotype data. Our efficient model-based clustering approach is able to cluster datasets 10-100 times larger than the existing model-based methods, which we demonstrate by analyzing an alignment of over 110 000 sequences of HIV-1 pol genes. We also provide a method for rapidly partitioning an existing hierarchy in order to maximize the DPM model marginal likelihood, allowing us to split phylogenetic trees into clades and subclades using a population genomic model. Extensive tests on simulated data as well as a diverse set of real bacterial and viral datasets show that fastbaps provides comparable or improved solutions to previous model-based methods, while being significantly faster. The method is made freely available under an open source MIT licence as an easy to use R package at https://github.com/gtonkinhill/fastbaps.

Assessment of a multiplex PCR and Nanopore-based method for dengue virus sequencing in Indonesia.

BACKGROUND: Dengue virus (DENV) infects hundreds of thousands of people annually in Indonesia. However, DENV sequence data from the country are limited, as samples from outbreaks must be shipped across long-distances to suitably equipped laboratories to be sequenced. This approach is time-consuming, expensive, and frequently results in failure due to low viral load or degradation of the RNA genome. METHODS: We evaluated a method designed to address this challenge, using the 'Primal Scheme' multiplex PCR tiling approach to rapidly generate short, overlapping amplicons covering the complete DENV coding-region, and sequencing the amplicons on the portable Nanopore MinION device. The resulting sequence data was assessed in terms of genome coverage, consensus sequence accuracy and by phylogenetic analysis. RESULTS: The multiplex approach proved capable of producing near complete coding-region coverage from all samples tested ([Formula: see text] = 99.96%, n = 18), 61% of which could not be fully amplified using the current, long-amplicon PCR, approach. Nanopore-generated consensus sequences were found to be between 99.17-99.92% identical to those produced by high-coverage Illumina sequencing. Consensus accuracy could be improved by masking regions below 20X coverage depth (99.69-99.92%). However, coding-region coverage was reduced at this depth ([Formula: see text] = 93.48%). Nanopore and Illumina consensus sequences generated from the same samples formed monophyletic clades on phylogenetic analysis, and Indonesian consensus sequences accurately clustered by geographical origin. CONCLUSION: The multiplex, short-amplicon approach proved superior for amplifying DENV genomes from clinical samples, particularly when the virus was present at low concentrations. The accuracy of Nanopore-generated consensus sequences from these amplicons was sufficient for identifying the geographic origin of the samples, demonstrating that the approach can be a useful tool for identifying and monitoring DENV clades circulating in low-resource settings across Indonesia. However, the inaccuracies in Nanopore-generated consensus sequences mean that the approach may not be appropriate for higher resolution transmission studies, particularly when more accurate sequencing technologies are available.

Neutral Theory and Rapidly Evolving Viral Pathogens.

The evolution of viral pathogens is shaped by strong selective forces that are exerted during jumps to new hosts, confrontations with host immune responses and antiviral drugs, and numerous other processes. However, while undeniably strong and frequent, adaptive evolution is largely confined to small parts of information-packed viral genomes, and the majority of observed variation is effectively neutral. The predictions and implications of the neutral theory have proven immensely useful in this context, with applications spanning understanding within-host population structure, tracing the origins and spread of viral pathogens, predicting evolutionary dynamics, and modeling the emergence of drug resistance. We highlight the multiple ways in which the neutral theory has had an impact, which has been accelerated in the age of high-throughput, high-resolution genomics.

HIV seroprevalence, self-reported STIs and associated risk factors among men who have sex with men: a cross-sectional study in Rwanda, 2015.

OBJECTIVES: In many populations, men who have sex with men (MSM) are at a high risk of HIV infection. This study aimed to estimate the burden of HIV, other STIs and risk behaviours among Rwandan MSM. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, we recruited through peer referral men aged between 18 and 60 years, who reported sex with men at least once in the 12 months prior to the survey. Representativeness was increased using 'seeds' from a variety of sources. Signed informed consent was obtained from all participants. Data on demographics, risk behaviours and self-reported STIs were collected through an interviewer-administered questionnaire. We screened all eligible participants for HIV using the Rwanda-approved protocol for rapid HIV detection. RESULTS: 504 MSM were recruited from five major cities in Rwanda. Participants were mostly young (median age 23 years, range 18-55 years) and unmarried (484/504, 96.0%). Thirteen per cent (65/504) of the participants reported past gonorrhoea and/or syphilis infection. Of 504 MSM, 53 (10.5%) reported they were diagnosed and treated for gonorrhoea in the past 12 months and 24 (4.8%) tested positive for HIV. A high proportion (232/504, 46%) reported receiving payment for sex by a man, with almost half of these reporting on more than three occasions (107/232, 46%). Many reported having had an HIV test within the past 12 months (385/504, 76.4%). In multivariate logistic regression models controlling for age, being paid for sex was associated with higher odds of past STI (OR 3.36 (1.82-6.43]; P<0.001) and testing HIV positive (OR 3.13, P<0.05). CONCLUSION: Further research is needed to understand the high rate of payment for sex in this population, which appears to be a major risk factor for STI including HIV.

Phylogenetic Tools for Generalized HIV-1 Epidemics: Findings from the PANGEA-HIV Methods Comparison.

Viral phylogenetic methods contribute to understanding how HIV spreads in populations, and thereby help guide the design of prevention interventions. So far, most analyses have been applied to well-sampled concentrated HIV-1 epidemics in wealthy countries. To direct the use of phylogenetic tools to where the impact of HIV-1 is greatest, the Phylogenetics And Networks for Generalized HIV Epidemics in Africa (PANGEA-HIV) consortium generates full-genome viral sequences from across sub-Saharan Africa. Analyzing these data presents new challenges, since epidemics are principally driven by heterosexual transmission and a smaller fraction of cases is sampled. Here, we show that viral phylogenetic tools can be adapted and used to estimate epidemiological quantities of central importance to HIV-1 prevention in sub-Saharan Africa. We used a community-wide methods comparison exercise on simulated data, where participants were blinded to the true dynamics they were inferring. Two distinct simulations captured generalized HIV-1 epidemics, before and after a large community-level intervention that reduced infection levels. Five research groups participated. Structured coalescent modeling approaches were most successful: phylogenetic estimates of HIV-1 incidence, incidence reductions, and the proportion of transmissions from individuals in their first 3 months of infection correlated with the true values (Pearson correlation > 90%), with small bias. However, on some simulations, true values were markedly outside reported confidence or credibility intervals. The blinded comparison revealed current limits and strengths in using HIV phylogenetics in challenging settings, provided benchmarks for future methods' development, and supports using the latest generation of phylogenetic tools to advance HIV surveillance and prevention.

Genotype-Specific Evolution of Hepatitis E Virus.

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is the most common cause of acute viral hepatitis globally. HEV comprises four genotypes with different geographic distributions and host ranges. We utilize this natural case-control study for investigating the evolution of zoonotic viruses compared to single-host viruses, using 244 near-full-length HEV genomes. Genome-wide estimates of the ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous evolutionary changes (dN/dS ratio) located a region of overlapping reading frames, which is subject to positive selection in genotypes 3 and 4. The open reading frames (ORFs) involved have functions related to host-pathogen interaction, so genotype-specific evolution of these regions may reflect their fitness. Bayesian inference of evolutionary rates shows that genotypes 3 and 4 have significantly higher rates than genotype 1 across all ORFs. Reconstruction of the phylogenies of zoonotic genotypes demonstrates significant intermingling of isolates between hosts. We speculate that the genotype-specific differences may result from cyclical adaptation to different hosts in genotypes 3 and 4.IMPORTANCE Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is increasingly recognized as a pathogen that affects both the developing and the developed world. While most often clinically mild, HEV can be severe or fatal in certain demographics, such as expectant mothers. Like many other viral pathogens, HEV has been classified into several distinct genotypes. We show that most of the HEV genome is evolutionarily constrained. One locus of positive selection is unusual in that it encodes two distinct protein products. We are the first to detect positive selection in this overlap region. Genotype 1, which infects humans only, appears to be evolving differently from genotypes 3 and 4, which infect multiple species, possibly because genotypes 3 and 4 are unable to achieve the same fitness due to repeated host jumps.

The role of venues in structuring HIV, sexually transmitted infections, and risk networks among men who have sex with men.

BACKGROUND: Venues form part of the sampling frame for time-location sampling, an approach often used for HIV surveillance. While sampling location is often regarded as a nuisance factor, venues may play a central role in structuring risk networks. We investigated individual reports of risk behaviors and infections among men who have sex with men (MSM) attending different venues to examine structuring of HIV risk behaviors. However, teasing apart 'risky people' from 'risky places' is difficult, as individuals cannot be randomized to attend different venues. However, we can emulate this statistically using marginal structural models, which inversely weight individuals according to their estimated probability of attending the venue. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 609 MSM patrons of 14 bars in San Diego, California, recruited using the Priorities for Local AIDS Control Efforts (PLACE) methodology, which consists of a multi-level identification and assessment of venues for HIV risk through population surveys. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Venues differed by many factors, including participants' reported age, ethnicity, number of lifetime male partners, past sexually transmitted infection (STI), and HIV status. In multivariable marginal structural models, venues demonstrated structuring of HIV+ status, past STI, and methamphetamine use, independently of individual-level characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: Studies using time-location sampling should consider venue as an important covariate, and the use of marginal structural models may help to identify risky venues. This may assist in widespread, economically feasible and sustainable targeted surveillance and prevention. A more mechanistic understanding of how 'risky venues' emerge and structure risk is needed.

Modeling and analyzing respondent-driven sampling as a counting process.

Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is an approach to sampling design and analysis which utilizes the networks of social relationships that connect members of the target population, using chain-referral. RDS sampling will typically oversample participants with many acquaintances. Naïve estimators, such as the sample average, will thus be biased towards the state of the most highly connected individuals. Current methodology cannot estimate population size from RDS, and promotes inverse probability weighted estimators for population parameters such as HIV prevalence. We propose to use the timing of recruitment, typically collected and discarded, in order to estimate the population size via a counting process model. Once population size and degree frequencies are made available, prevalence can be debiased in a post-stratified framework. We adapt methods developed for inference in epidemiology and software reliability to estimate the population size, degree counts and frequencies. A fundamental advantage of our approach is that it makes the assumptions of the sampling design explicit. This enables verification of the assumptions, maximum likelihood estimation, extension with covariates, and model selection. We develop large-sample theory, proving consistency and asymptotic normality. We further compare our estimators to other estimators in the RDS literature, through simulation and real-world data. In both cases, we find our estimators to outperform current methods. The likelihood problem in the model we present is separable, and thus efficiently solvable. We implement these estimators in an accompanying R package, chords, available on CRAN.

Measuring Asymmetry in Time-Stamped Phylogenies.

Previous work has shown that asymmetry in viral phylogenies may be indicative of heterogeneity in transmission, for example due to acute HIV infection or the presence of 'core groups' with higher contact rates. Hence, evidence of asymmetry may provide clues to underlying population structure, even when direct information on, for example, stage of infection or contact rates, are missing. However, current tests of phylogenetic asymmetry (a) suffer from false positives when the tips of the phylogeny are sampled at different times and (b) only test for global asymmetry, and hence suffer from false negatives when asymmetry is localised to part of a phylogeny. We present a simple permutation-based approach for testing for asymmetry in a phylogeny, where we compare the observed phylogeny with random phylogenies with the same sampling and coalescence times, to reduce the false positive rate. We also demonstrate how profiles of measures of asymmetry calculated over a range of evolutionary times in the phylogeny can be used to identify local asymmetry. In combination with different metrics of asymmetry, this combined approach offers detailed insights of how phylogenies reconstructed from real viral datasets may deviate from the simplistic assumptions of commonly used coalescent and birth-death process models.

Can non-lytic CD8+ T cells drive HIV-1 escape?

The CD8+ T cell effector mechanisms that mediate control of HIV-1 and SIV infections remain poorly understood. Recent work suggests that the mechanism may be primarily non-lytic. This is in apparent conflict with the observation that SIV and HIV-1 variants that escape CD8+ T cell surveillance are frequently selected. Whilst it is clear that a variant that has escaped a lytic response can have a fitness advantage compared to the wild-type, it is less obvious that this holds in the face of non-lytic control where both wild-type and variant infected cells would be affected by soluble factors. In particular, the high motility of T cells in lymphoid tissue would be expected to rapidly destroy local effects making selection of escape variants by non-lytic responses unlikely. The observation of frequent HIV-1 and SIV escape poses a number of questions. Most importantly, is the consistent observation of viral escape proof that HIV-1- and SIV-specific CD8+ T cells lyse infected cells or can this also be the result of non-lytic control? Additionally, the rate at which a variant strain escapes a lytic CD8+ T cell response is related to the strength of the response. Is the same relationship true for a non-lytic response? Finally, the potential anti-viral control mediated by non-lytic mechanisms compared to lytic mechanisms is unknown. These questions cannot be addressed with current experimental techniques nor with the standard mathematical models. Instead we have developed a 3D cellular automaton model of HIV-1 which captures spatial and temporal dynamics. The model reproduces in vivo HIV-1 dynamics at the cellular and population level. Using this model we demonstrate that non-lytic effector mechanisms can select for escape variants but that outgrowth of the variant is slower and less frequent than from a lytic response so that non-lytic responses can potentially offer more durable control.

Assessing the use of hospital staff influenza-like absence (ILA) for enhancing hospital preparedness and national surveillance.

BACKGROUND: Early warning and robust estimation of influenza burden are critical to inform hospital preparedness and operational, treatment, and vaccination policies. Methods to enhance influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance are regularly reviewed. We investigated the use of hospital staff 'influenza-like absences' (hospital staff-ILA), i.e. absence attributed to colds and influenza, to improve capture of influenza dynamics and provide resilience for hospitals. METHODS: Numbers and rates of hospital staff-ILA were compared to regional surveillance data on ILI primary-care presentations (15-64 years) and to counts of laboratory confirmed cases among hospitalised patients from April 2008 to April 2013 inclusive. Analyses were used to determine comparability of the ILI and hospital-ILA and how systems compared in early warning and estimating the burden of disease. RESULTS: Among 20,021 reported hospital-ILA and 4661 community ILI cases, correlations in counts were high and consistency in illness measurements was observed. In time series analyses, both hospital-ILA and ILI showed similar timing of the seasonal component. Hospital-ILA data often commenced and peaked earlier than ILI according to a Bayesian prospective alarm algorithm. Hospital-ILA rates were more comparable to model-based estimates of 'true' influenza burden than ILI. CONCLUSIONS: Hospital-ILA appears to have the potential to be a robust, yet simple syndromic surveillance method that could be used to enhance estimates of disease burden and early warning, and assist with local hospital preparedness.

Inferring the source of transmission with phylogenetic data.

Identifying the source of transmission using pathogen genetic data is complicated by numerous biological, immunological, and behavioral factors. A large source of error arises when there is incomplete or sparse sampling of cases. Unsampled cases may act as either a common source of infection or as an intermediary in a transmission chain for hosts infected with genetically similar pathogens. It is difficult to quantify the probability of common source or intermediate transmission events, which has made it difficult to develop statistical tests to either confirm or deny putative transmission pairs with genetic data. We present a method to incorporate additional information about an infectious disease epidemic, such as incidence and prevalence of infection over time, to inform estimates of the probability that one sampled host is the direct source of infection of another host in a pathogen gene genealogy. These methods enable forensic applications, such as source-case attribution, for infectious disease epidemics with incomplete sampling, which is usually the case for high-morbidity community-acquired pathogens like HIV, Influenza and Dengue virus. These methods also enable epidemiological applications such as the identification of factors that increase the risk of transmission. We demonstrate these methods in the context of the HIV epidemic in Detroit, Michigan, and we evaluate the suitability of current sequence databases for forensic and epidemiological investigations. We find that currently available sequences collected for drug resistance testing of HIV are unlikely to be useful in most forensic investigations, but are useful for identifying transmission risk factors.

HIV prevalence and demographic determinants of unprotected anal sex and HIV testing among men who have sex with men in Beirut, Lebanon.

The limited epidemiological data in Lebanon suggest that HIV incident cases are predominantly among men who have sex with men (MSM). We assessed the prevalence of HIV and demographic correlates of condom use and HIV testing among MSM in Beirut. Respondent-driven sampling was used to recruit 213 participants for completion of a behavioral survey and an optional free rapid HIV test. Multivariate regression analysis was used to examine demographic correlates of unprotected anal sex and any history of HIV testing. Nearly half (47 %) were under age 25 years and 67 % self-identified as gay. Nearly two-thirds (64 %) reported any unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) with men in the prior 3 months, including 23 % who had unprotected anal intercourse with men whose HIV status was positive or unknown (UAIPU) to the participant. Three men (1.5 % of 198 participants tested) were HIV-positive; 62 % had any history of HIV testing prior to the study and testing was less common among those engaging in UAIPU compared to others (33 % vs. 71 %). In regression analysis, men in a relationship had higher odds of having UAI but lower odds of UAIPU and any university education was associated with having UAI; those with any prior history of HIV testing were more likely to be in a relationship and have any university education. HIV prevention efforts for MSM need to account for the influence of relationship dynamics and promotion of testing needs to target high-risk MSM.