Similar risk of hepatocellular carcinoma during long-term entecavir or tenofovir therapy in Caucasian patients with chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: A recent study in Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) reported that the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) was lower in patients treated with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) than entecavir (ETV), but this finding remains controversial. We aimed to identify any differences in HCC incidence, or other patient outcomes, between patients receiving TDF or ETV in the well monitored, multicenter European PAGE-B cohort. METHODS: We included 1,935 Caucasians with CHB, with or without compensated cirrhosis, treated with ETV (n = 772) or TDF (n = 1,163) monotherapy. Mean follow-up was 7.1 ± 3.0 years from ETV/TDF onset. RESULTS: The 5-year cumulative HCC incidence was 5.4% in ETV- and 6.0% in TDF-treated patients (log-rank, p = 0.321), with no significant difference in any patient subgroup (with or without cirrhosis, naïve or experienced to oral antiviral(s) [total, with or without cirrhosis]). In multivariable Cox regression analyses, the hazard of HCC was similar between ETV- and TDF-treated patients after adjustment for several HCC risk factors. ETV- and TDF-treated patients had similar rates of on-therapy biochemical and virological remission, HBsAg loss, liver transplantation and/or death. Elastographic reversion of cirrhosis at year 5 (liver stiffness <12 kPa) was observed in 245/347 (70.6%) patients with pretreatment cirrhosis, being more frequent in TDF- than ETV- treated patients (73.8% vs. 61.5%, p = 0.038). CONCLUSION: In Caucasian patients with CHB, with or without cirrhosis, long-term ETV or TDF monotherapy is associated with similar HCC risk, rates of biochemical/virological remission, HBsAg loss and liver transplantation or death, but elastographic reversion of cirrhosis at year 5 was more frequent with TDF. LAY SUMMARY: In a large cohort of Caucasians with chronic hepatitis B treated with entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) monotherapy, cumulative rates of hepatocellular carcinoma did not differ (up to 12 years). Nor did rates of biochemical/virological remission, HBsAg loss and liver transplantation or death. However, elastographic reversion of cirrhosis at year 5 was more frequent in TDF- than ETV-treated patients with pretreatment cirrhosis.

Hepatocellular carcinoma prediction beyond year 5 of oral therapy in a large cohort of Caucasian patients with chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may develop in patients with chronic hepatitis (CHB) even after 5 years of oral therapy and cannot be easily predicted. We assessed predictors of HCC development and the need for HCC surveillance in this setting. METHODS: Of 1,951 adult Caucasians with CHB included in the PAGE-B cohort, 1,427 (73%) had completed >5 years of follow-up under therapy without developing HCC by year 5. Median follow-up was 8.4 years from treatment onset. Points-based risk scores were developed to predict HCC risk after year 5. RESULTS: In years 5-12, HCC was diagnosed in 33/1,427 (2.3%) patients with cumulative incidences of 2.4%, 3.2% and 3.8% at 8, 10 and 12 years, respectively. Older age or age >50 years, baseline cirrhosis and liver stiffness (LSM) ≥12 kPa at year 5 were independently associated with increased HCC risk. The HCC incidence was lower in non-cirrhotics than cirrhotics at baseline with year-5 LSM <12; among cirrhotics at baseline, it was lower in those with year-5 LSM <12 than ≥12 kPa. CAGE-B score was based on age at year 5 and baseline cirrhosis in relation to LSM at year 5 and SAGE-B score was based only on age and LSM at year 5 (c-index = 0.809-0.814, 0.805-0.806 after bootstrap validation). Both scores offered 100% negative predictive values for HCC development in their low risk groups. CONCLUSIONS: In Caucasians with CHB, the HCC risk after the first 5 years of antiviral therapy depends on age, baseline cirrhosis status and LSM at year 5. CAGE-B and particularly SAGE-B represent simple and reliable risk scores for HCC prediction and surveillance beyond year 5 of therapy. LAY SUMMARY: In Caucasians with chronic hepatitis B, the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma after the first 5 years of entecavir or tenofovir therapy depends on age, baseline cirrhosis status and liver stiffness at year 5, which can provide simple and reliable risk scores for hepatocellular carcinoma prediction and surveillance beyond year 5. In patients with cirrhosis at baseline, liver stiffness <12 kPa at year 5 is associated with lower HCC risk, but surveillance may be still required.

Predictive performance of newer Asian hepatocellular carcinoma risk scores in treated Caucasians with chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Recently, several risk scores for prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) were developed in cohorts of treated Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), but they have not been assessed in non-Asian patients. We evaluated the predictability and comparative utility of our PAGE-B and recent Asian HCC risk scores in nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA)-treated adult Caucasian patients with CHB, with or without well-documented compensated cirrhosis but not previous diagnosis of HCC. METHODS: We included 1,951 patients treated with entecavir/tenofovir and followed up for a median of 7.6 years. The c-statistic was used to estimate the predictability of PAGE-B, HCC-Rescue, CAMD, mPAGE-B, and AASL score for HCC development within 5 or 10 years. The low- and high-risk group cut-offs were used for estimation of negative (NPV) and positive predictive values (PPV), respectively. RESULTS: HCC developed in 103/1,951 (5.3%) patients during the first 5 years and in another 39/1,428 (2.7%) patients between years 5 and 10. The 3-, 5-, and 10-year cumulative HCC rates were 3.3%, 5.9%, and 9.6%, respectively. All scores offered good 5- and 10-year HCC prediction (c-statistic: 0.78-0.82). NPVs were always >99% (99.3-100%), whereas PPV ranged between 13% and 24%. CONCLUSIONS: In NA-treated Caucasian patients with CHB including compensated cirrhosis, HCC risk scores developed in NA-treated Asian patients offer good 5- and 10-year HCC predictability, similar to that of PAGE-B. PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores are simpler in clinical practice, as they do not require an accurate diagnosis of cirrhosis, but the addition of albumin in mPAGE-B score does not seem to offer an advantage in patients with well compensated liver disease. LAY SUMMARY: Several risk scores for prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) were recently developed in cohorts of treated Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). In Caucasian patients with CHB treated with oral antivirals, newer Asian HCC risk scores offer good 5- and 10-year HCC predictability, similar to that of PAGE-B. For clinical practice, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores are simpler, as they do not require an accurate diagnosis of cirrhosis.