Spatial-temporal patterns of malaria incidence in Uganda using HMIS data from 2015 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: As global progress to reduce malaria transmission continues, it is increasingly important to track changes in malaria incidence rather than prevalence. Risk estimates for Africa have largely underutilized available health management information systems (HMIS) data to monitor trends. This study uses national HMIS data, together with environmental and geographical data, to assess spatial-temporal patterns of malaria incidence at facility catchment level in Uganda, over a recent 5-year period. METHODS: Data reported by 3446 health facilities in Uganda, between July 2015 and September 2019, was analysed. To assess the geographic accessibility of the health facilities network, AccessMod was employed to determine a three-hour cost-distance catchment around each facility. Using confirmed malaria cases and total catchment population by facility, an ecological Bayesian conditional autoregressive spatial-temporal Poisson model was fitted to generate monthly posterior incidence rate estimates, adjusted for caregiver education, rainfall, land surface temperature, night-time light (an indicator of urbanicity), and vegetation index. RESULTS: An estimated 38.8 million (95% Credible Interval [CI]: 37.9-40.9) confirmed cases of malaria occurred over the period, with a national mean monthly incidence rate of 20.4 (95% CI: 19.9-21.5) cases per 1000, ranging from 8.9 (95% CI: 8.7-9.4) to 36.6 (95% CI: 35.7-38.5) across the study period. Strong seasonality was observed, with June-July experiencing highest peaks and February-March the lowest peaks. There was also considerable geographic heterogeneity in incidence, with health facility catchment relative risk during peak transmission months ranging from 0 to 50.5 (95% CI: 49.0-50.8) times higher than national average. Both districts and health facility catchments showed significant positive spatial autocorrelation; health facility catchments had global Moran's I = 0.3 (p < 0.001) and districts Moran's I = 0.4 (p < 0.001). Notably, significant clusters of high-risk health facility catchments were concentrated in Acholi, West Nile, Karamoja, and East Central - Busoga regions. CONCLUSION: Findings showed clear countrywide spatial-temporal patterns with clustering of malaria risk across districts and health facility catchments within high risk regions, which can facilitate targeting of interventions to those areas at highest risk. Moreover, despite high and perennial transmission, seasonality for malaria incidence highlights the potential for optimal and timely implementation of targeted interventions.

The effect of facility-based antiretroviral therapy programs on outpatient services in Kenya and Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Considerable debate exists concerning the effects of antiretroviral therapy (ART) service scale-up on non-HIV services and overall health system performance in sub-Saharan Africa. In this study, we examined whether ART services affected trends in non-ART outpatient department (OPD) visits in Kenya and Uganda. METHODS: Using a nationally representative sample of health facilities in Kenya and Uganda, we estimated the effect of ART programs on OPD visits from 2007 to 2012. We modeled the annual percent change in non-ART OPD visits using hierarchical mixed-effects linear regressions, controlling for a range of facility characteristics. We used four different constructs of ART services to capture the different ways in which the presence, growth, overall, and relative size of ART programs may affect non-ART OPD services. RESULTS: Our final sample included 321 health facilities (140 in Kenya and 181 in Uganda). On average, OPD and ART visits increased steadily in Kenya and Uganda between 2007 and 2012. For facilities where ART services were not offered, the average annual increase in OPD visits was 4·2% in Kenya and 13·5% in Uganda. Among facilities that provided ART services, we found average annual OPD volume increases of 7·2% in Kenya and 5·6% in Uganda, with simultaneous annual increases of 13·7% and 12·5% in ART volumes. We did not find a statistically significant relationship between annual changes in OPD services and the presence, growth, overall, or relative size of ART services. However, in a subgroup analysis, we found that Ugandan hospitals that offered ART services had statistically significantly less growth in OPD visits than Ugandan hospitals that did not provide ART services. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that ART services in Kenya and Uganda did not have a statistically significant deleterious effects on OPD services between 2007 and 2012, although subgroup analyses indicate variation by facility type. Our findings are encouraging, particularly given recent recommendations for universal access to ART, demonstrating that expanding ART services is not inherently linked to declines in other health services in sub-Saharan Africa.

The potential to expand antiretroviral therapy by improving health facility efficiency: evidence from Kenya, Uganda, and Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Since 2000, international funding for HIV has supported scaling up antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa. However, such funding has stagnated for years, threatening the sustainability and reach of ART programs amid efforts to achieve universal treatment. Improving health system efficiencies, particularly at the facility level, is an increasingly critical avenue for extending limited resources for ART; nevertheless, the potential impact of increased facility efficiency on ART capacity remains largely unknown. Through the present study, we sought to quantify facility-level technical efficiency across countries, assess potential determinants of efficiency, and predict the potential for additional ART expansion. METHODS: Using nationally-representative facility datasets from Kenya, Uganda and Zambia, and measures adjusting for structural quality, we estimated facility-level technical efficiency using an ensemble approach that combined restricted versions of Data Envelopment Analysis and Stochastic Distance Function. We then conducted a series of bivariate and multivariate regression analyses to evaluate possible determinants of higher or lower technical efficiency. Finally, we predicted the potential for ART expansion across efficiency improvement scenarios, estimating how many additional ART visits could be accommodated if facilities with low efficiency thresholds reached those levels of efficiency. RESULTS: In each country, national averages of efficiency fell below 50 % and facility-level efficiency markedly varied. Among facilities providing ART, average efficiency scores spanned from 50 % (95 % uncertainty interval (UI), 48-62 %) in Uganda to 59 % (95 % UI, 53-67 %) in Zambia. Of the facility determinants analyzed, few were consistently associated with higher or lower technical efficiency scores, suggesting that other factors may be more strongly related to facility-level efficiency. Based on observed facility resources and an efficiency improvement scenario where all facilities providing ART reached 80 % efficiency, we predicted a 33 % potential increase in ART visits in Kenya, 62 % in Uganda, and 33 % in Zambia. Given observed resources in facilities offering ART, we estimated that 459,000 new ART patients could be seen if facilities in these countries reached 80 % efficiency, equating to a 40 % increase in new patients. CONCLUSIONS: Health facilities in Kenya, Uganda, and Zambia could notably expand ART services if the efficiency with which they operate increased. Improving how facility resources are used, and not simply increasing their quantity, has the potential to substantially elevate the impact of global health investments and reduce treatment gaps for people living with HIV.

Evaluating facility-based antiretroviral therapy programme effectiveness: a pilot study comparing viral load suppression and retention rates.

OBJECTIVES: Increased demand for antiretroviral therapy (ART) services combined with plateaued levels of development assistance for HIV/AIDS requires that national ART programmes monitor programme effectiveness. In this pilot study, we compared commonly utilised performance metrics of 12- and 24-month retention with rates of viral load (VL) suppression at 15 health facilities in Uganda. METHODS: Retrospective chart review from which 12- and 24-month retention rates were estimated, and parallel HIV RNA VL testing on consecutive adult patients who presented to clinics and had been on ART for a minimum of six months. Rates of VL suppression were then calculated at each facility and compared to retention rates to assess the correlation between performance metrics. Multilevel logistic regression models predicting VL suppression and 12- and 24-month retention were constructed to estimate facility effects. RESULTS: We collected VL samples from 2961 patients and found that 88% had a VL ≤1000 copies/ml. Facility rates of VL suppression varied between 77% and 96%. When controlling for patient mix, a significant variation in facility performance persisted. Retention rates at 12 and 24 months were 91% and 79%, respectively, with a comparable facility-level variation. However, neither 12-month (ρ = 0.16) nor 24-month (ρ = -0.19) retention rates were correlated with facility rates of VL suppression. CONCLUSIONS: Retaining patients in care and suppressing VL are both critical outcomes. Given the lack of correlation noted in this study, the utilisation of VL monitoring may be necessary to truly assess the effectiveness of health facilities delivering ART services.

Benchmarking health system performance across regions in Uganda: a systematic analysis of levels and trends in key maternal and child health interventions, 1990-2011.

BACKGROUND: Globally, countries are increasingly prioritizing the reduction of health inequalities and provision of universal health coverage. While national benchmarking has become more common, such work at subnational levels is rare. The timely and rigorous measurement of local levels and trends in key health interventions and outcomes is vital to identifying areas of progress and detecting early signs of stalled or declining health system performance. Previous studies have yet to provide a comprehensive assessment of Uganda's maternal and child health (MCH) landscape at the subnational level. METHODS: By triangulating a number of different data sources - population censuses, household surveys, and administrative data - we generated regional estimates of 27 key MCH outcomes, interventions, and socioeconomic indicators from 1990 to 2011. After calculating source-specific estimates of intervention coverage, we used a two-step statistical model involving a mixed-effects linear model as an input to Gaussian process regression to produce regional-level trends. We also generated national-level estimates and constructed an indicator of overall intervention coverage based on the average of 11 high-priority interventions. RESULTS: National estimates often veiled large differences in coverage levels and trends across Uganda's regions. Under-5 mortality declined dramatically, from 163 deaths per 1,000 live births in 1990 to 85 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2011, but a large gap between Kampala and the rest of the country persisted. Uganda rapidly scaled up a subset of interventions across regions, including household ownership of insecticide-treated nets, receipt of artemisinin-based combination therapies among children under 5, and pentavalent immunization. Conversely, most regions saw minimal increases, if not actual declines, in the coverage of indicators that required multiple contacts with the health system, such as four or more antenatal care visits, three doses of oral polio vaccine, and two doses of intermittent preventive therapy during pregnancy. Some of the regions with the lowest levels of overall intervention coverage in 1990, such as North and West Nile, saw marked progress by 2011; nonetheless, sizeable disparities remained between Kampala and the rest of the country. Countrywide, overall coverage increased from 40% in 1990 to 64% in 2011, but coverage in 2011 ranged from 57% to 70% across regions. CONCLUSIONS: The MCH landscape in Uganda has, for the most part, improved between 1990 and 2011. Subnational benchmarking quantified the persistence of geographic health inequalities and identified regions in need of additional health systems strengthening. The tracking and analysis of subnational health trends should be conducted regularly to better guide policy decisions and strengthen responsiveness to local health needs.

Health facility-based malaria surveillance: the effects of age, area of residence and diagnostics on test positivity rates.

BACKGROUND: The malaria test positivity rate (TPR) is increasingly used as an indicator of malaria morbidity because TPR is based on laboratory-confirmed cases and is simple to incorporate into existing surveillance systems. However, temporal trends in TPR may reflect changes in factors associated with malaria rather than true changes in malaria morbidity. This study examines the effects of age, area of residence and diagnostic test on TPR at two health facilities in regions of Uganda with differing malaria endemicity. METHODS: The analysis included data from diagnostic blood smears performed at health facilities in Walukuba and Aduku between January 2009 and December 2010. The associations between age and time and between age and TPR were evaluated independently to determine the potential for age to confound temporal trends in TPR. Subsequently, differences between observed TPR and TPR adjusted for age were compared to determine if confounding was present. A similar analysis was performed for area of residence. Temporal trends in observed TPR were compared to trends in TPR expected using rapid diagnostic tests, which were modelled based upon sensitivity and specificity in prior studies. RESULTS: Age was independently associated with both TPR and time at both sites. At Aduku, age-adjusted TPR increased relative to observed TPR due to the association between younger age and TPR and the gradual increase in age distribution. At Walukuba, there were no clear differences between observed and age-adjusted TPR. Area of residence was independently associated with both TPR and time at both sites, though there were no clear differences in temporal trends in area of residence-adjusted TPR and observed TPR at either site. Expected TPR with pLDH- and HRP-2-based rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) was higher than observed TPR at all time points at both sites. CONCLUSIONS: Adjusting for potential confounders such as age and area of residence can ensure that temporal trends in TPR due to confounding are not mistakenly ascribed to true changes in malaria morbidity. The potentially large effect of diagnostic test on TPR can be accounted for by calculating and adjusting for the sensitivity and specificity of the test used.

The association between malnutrition and the incidence of malaria among young HIV-infected and -uninfected Ugandan children: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND: In sub-Saharan Africa, malnutrition and malaria remain major causes of morbidity and mortality in young children. There are conflicting data as to whether malnutrition is associated with an increased or decreased risk of malaria. In addition, data are limited on the potential interaction between HIV infection and the association between malnutrition and the risk of malaria. METHODS: A cohort of 100 HIV-unexposed, 203 HIV-exposed (HIV negative children born to HIV-infected mothers) and 48 HIV-infected children aged 6 weeks to 1 year were recruited from an area of high malaria transmission intensity in rural Uganda and followed until the age of 2.5 years. All children were provided with insecticide-treated bed nets at enrolment and daily trimethoprim-sulphamethoxazole prophylaxis (TS) was prescribed for HIV-exposed breastfeeding and HIV-infected children. Monthly routine assessments, including measurement of height and weight, were conducted at the study clinic. Nutritional outcomes including stunting (low height-for-age) and underweight (low weight-for-age), classified as mild (mean z-scores between -1 and -2 during follow-up) and moderate-severe (mean z-scores < -2 during follow-up) were considered. Malaria was diagnosed when a child presented with fever and a positive blood smear. The incidence of malaria was compared using negative binomial regression controlling for potential confounders with measures of association expressed as an incidence rate ratio (IRR). RESULTS: The overall incidence of malaria was 3.64 cases per person year. Mild stunting (IRR = 1.24, 95% CI 1.06-1.46, p = 0.008) and moderate-severe stunting (IRR = 1.24, 95% CI 1.03-1.48, p = 0.02) were associated with a similarly increased incidence of malaria compared to non-stunted children. Being mildly underweight (IRR = 1.09, 95% CI 0.95-1.25, p = 0.24) and moderate-severe underweight (IRR = 1.12, 95% CI 0.86-1.46, p = 0.39) were not associated with a significant difference in the incidence of malaria compared to children who were not underweight. There were no significant interactions between HIV-infected, HIV-exposed children taking TS and the associations between malnutrition and the incidence of malaria. CONCLUSIONS: Stunting, indicative of chronic malnutrition, was associated with an increased incidence of malaria among a cohort of HIV-infected and -uninfected young children living in an area of high malaria transmission intensity. However, caution should be made when making causal inferences given the observational study design and inability to disentangle the temporal relationship between malnutrition and the incidence of malaria. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00527800.

Effect of trimethoprim-sulphamethoxazole on the risk of malaria in HIV-infected Ugandan children living in an area of widespread antifolate resistance.

BACKGROUND: Daily trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (TS) protects against malaria, but efficacy may be diminished as anti-folate resistance increases. This study assessed the incidence of falciparum malaria and the prevalence of resistance-conferring Plasmodium falciparum mutations in HIV-infected children receiving daily TS and HIV-uninfected children not taking TS. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Subjects were 292 HIV-infected and 517 uninfected children from two cohort studies in Kampala, Uganda observed from August 2006 to December 2008. Daily TS was given to HIV-infected, but not HIV-uninfected children and all participants were provided an insecticide-treated bed net. Standardized protocols were used to measure the incidence of malaria and identify markers of antifolate resistance. RESULTS: Sixty-five episodes of falciparum malaria occurred in HIV-infected and 491 episodes in uninfected children during the observation period. TS was associated with a protective efficacy of 80% (0.10 vs. 0.45 episodes per person year, p < 0.001), and efficacy did not vary over three consecutive 9.5 month periods (81%, 74%, 80% respectively, p = 0.506). The prevalences of dhfr 51I, 108N, and 59R and dhps 437G and 540E mutations were each over 90% among parasites infecting both HIV-infected and uninfected children. Prevalence of the dhfr 164L mutation, which is associated with high-level resistance, was significantly higher in parasites from HIV-infected compared to uninfected children (8% vs. 1%, p = 0.001). Sequencing of the dhfr and dhps genes identified only one additional polymorphism, dhps 581G, in 2 of 30 samples from HIV-infected and 0 of 54 samples from uninfected children. CONCLUSION: Despite high prevalence of known anti-folate resistance-mediating mutations, TS prophylaxis was highly effective against malaria, but was associated with presence of dhfr 164L mutation.

The Impact of Control Interventions on Malaria Burden in Young Children in a Historically High-Transmission District of Uganda: A Pooled Analysis of Cohort Studies from 2007 to 2018.

There is limited evidence on whether malaria elimination is feasible in high-transmission areas of Africa. Between 2007 and 2018, we measured the impact of malaria control interventions in young children enrolled in three clinical trials and two observational studies in Tororo, Uganda, a historically high-transmission area. Data were pooled from children aged 0.5-2 years. Interventions included individually assigned chemoprevention and repeated rounds of indoor residual spraying (IRS) of insecticide. All children received long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and treatment for symptomatic malaria with artemisinin-based combination therapy. Malaria incidence was measured using passive surveillance and parasite prevalence by microscopy and molecular methods at regular intervals. Poisson's generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to estimate the impact of various control interventions. In total, 939 children were followed over 1,221.7 person years. In the absence of chemoprevention and IRS (reference group), malaria incidence was 4.94 episodes per person year and parasite prevalence 47.3%. Compared with the reference group, implementation of IRS was associated with a 97.6% decrease (95% CI: 93.3-99.1%, P = 0.001) in the incidence of malaria and a 96.0% decrease (95% CI: 91.3-98.2%, P < 0.001) in parasite prevalence (both measured after the fifth and sixth rounds of IRS). The addition of chemoprevention with monthly dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine to IRS was associated with a 99.5% decrease (95% CI: 98.6-99.9%, P < 0.001) in the incidence of malaria. In a historically high-malaria burden area of Uganda, a combination of LLINs, effective case management, IRS, and chemoprevention was associated with almost complete elimination of malaria in young children.

Dynamics of T cell activation accompanying CD4 recovery in antiretroviral treated HIV-infected Ugandan children.

Africans have elevated T cell activation compared to residents of Europe or the USA. Levels of T cell activation also correlate with disease progression in HIV-infected individuals. We sought to determine if treatment with antiretroviral therapy (ART) would reduce levels of T cell activation (CD38 and HLADR co-expression) in HIV-infected Ugandan children. The median CD8+ T cell activation level among 199 ART-treated children (30%) was lower than in 57 ART-naïve children (45%, p<0.001), but remained higher than in 30 HIV-uninfected children (18%, p<0.001). Among ART-treated children, CD4% was inversely correlated with both CD8- (rho=-0.61, p<0.001) and CD8+ (rho=-0.38, p<0.001) T cell activation. Prospectively, CD4 recovery correlated with post-treatment CD8+ T cell activation level (p=0.008). Our data suggest that significant decreases in T cell activation accompany CD4 recovery in ART-treated HIV-infected African children, to levels that approach but do not reach those of uninfected children.

Safety and tolerability of artemether-lumefantrine versus dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine for malaria in young HIV-infected and uninfected children.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin combination therapy has become the standard of care for uncomplicated malaria in most of Africa. However, there is limited data on the safety and tolerability of these drugs, especially in young children and patients co-infected with HIV. METHODS: A longitudinal, randomized controlled trial was conducted in a cohort of HIV-infected and uninfected children aged 4-22 months in Tororo, Uganda. Participants were randomized to treatment with artemether-lumefantrine (AL) or dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) upon diagnosis of their first episode of uncomplicated malaria and received the same regimen for all subsequent episodes. Participants were actively monitored for adverse events for 28 days and then passively for up to 63 days after treatment. This study was registered in ClinicalTrials.gov (registration # NCT00527800). RESULTS: A total of 122 children were randomized to AL and 124 to DP, resulting in 412 and 425 treatments, respectively. Most adverse events were rare, with only cough, diarrhoea, vomiting, and anaemia occurring in more than 1% of treatments. There were no differences in the risk of these events between treatment groups. Younger age was associated with an increased risk of diarrhoea in both the AL and DP treatment arms. Retreatment for malaria within 17-28 days was associated with an increased risk of vomiting in the DP treatment arm (HR = 6.47, 95% CI 2.31-18.1, p < 0.001). There was no increase in the risk of diarrhoea or vomiting for children who were HIV-infected or on concomitant therapy with antiretrovirals or trimethoprim-sulphamethoxazole prophylaxis. CONCLUSION: Both AL and DP were safe and well tolerated for the treatment of uncomplicated malaria in young HIV-infected and uninfected children. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00527800; http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00527800.

High risk of neutropenia in HIV-infected children following treatment with artesunate plus amodiaquine for uncomplicated malaria in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin-based combination therapies are rapidly being adopted for the treatment of malaria in Africa; however, there are limited data on their safety and efficacy among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected populations. METHODS: We compared malaria treatment outcomes between cohorts of HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected children in Uganda who were observed for 18 and 29 months, respectively. Malaria was treated with artesunate plus amodiaquine, and outcomes were assessed using standardized guidelines. HIV-infected children received trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole prophylaxis and antiretroviral therapy in accordance with current guidelines. RESULTS: Twenty-six HIV-infected participants experiencing 35 episodes of malaria and 134 HIV-uninfected children experiencing 258 episodes of malaria were included in the study. Twelve HIV-infected children were receiving antiretroviral therapy, 11 of whom were receiving zidovudine. Malaria treatment was highly efficacious in both the HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected cohorts (28-day risk of recrudescence, 0% and 3.6%, respectively); however, there was a trend towards increased risk of recurrent malaria among the HIV-uninfected children (2.9% vs. 13.2%; p = .08). Importantly, the risk of neutropenia 14 days after initiation of treatment with artesunate plus amodiaquine was higher among HIV-infected children than among HIV-uninfected children (45% vs. 6%; p < .001). The severity of all episodes of neutropenia in HIV-uninfected children was mild to moderate, and 16% of episodes of neutropenia in the HIV-infected cohort were severe or life-threatening (neutrophil count, <750 cells/mm(3)). In the HIV-infected cohort, the risk of neutropenia was significantly higher among children who received antiretroviral therapy than among those who did not receive antiretroviral therapy (75% vs. 26%; p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Artesunate plus amodiaquine was highly efficacious for malaria treatment in HIV-infected children but was associated with a high risk of neutropenia, especially in the context of concurrent antiretroviral use. Our findings highlight an urgent need for evaluation of alternative antimalarial therapies for HIV-infected individuals.

Effects of trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole and insecticide-treated bednets on malaria among HIV-infected Ugandan children.

BACKGROUND: Trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (TMP/SMX) prophylaxis and insecticide-treated bednets reduce malaria risk among HIV-infected adults. The efficacy of TMP/SMX may be diminished where antifolate resistance to malaria is high. We evaluated the efficacy of these interventions for malaria prevention among Ugandan children. METHODS: We concurrently followed 300 HIV-infected children aged 1-10 years and a community-based cohort of 561 healthy children aged 1-11 years over 11 months in Kampala, Uganda. The HIV-infected children received TMP/SMX prophylaxis and insecticide treated bednets. In the community cohort, insecticide-treated bednets were introduced during the observation period. Children from both cohorts were followed using a standardized protocol to measure the incidence of malaria. RESULTS: Only nine episodes of malaria were diagnosed among HIV-infected children (incidence = 0.07/person-year) in comparison with 440 episodes among children from the community (incidence = 0.90/person-year; P < 0.0001). The use of insecticide-treated bednets was associated with a 43% reduction in malaria incidence (P < 0.001), and a combination of TMP/SMX and use of insecticide-treated bednets with a 97% reduction in malaria incidence (P < 0.001). The prevalence of five mutations associated with antifolate resistance was high among malaria cases detected in both the HIV (100%) and community cohorts (75%). Malaria accounted for only 4% of febrile episodes in the HIV cohort in comparison with 33% in the community-based cohort (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: In a malaria endemic area with a high level of molecular markers of antifolate resistance, the combined use of TMP/SMX prophylaxis and insecticide-treated bednets was associated with a dramatic reduction in malaria incidence among HIV-infected children.

The clock is ticking: the rate and timeliness of antiretroviral therapy initiation from the time of treatment eligibility in Kenya.

INTRODUCTION: Understanding the determinants of timely antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation is useful for HIV programmes intent on developing models of care that reduce delays in treatment initiation while maintaining a high quality of care. We analysed patient- and facility-level determinants of time to ART initiation among patients who initiated ART in Kenya. METHODS: We collected facility-level information and conducted a retrospective chart review of adults initiating ART between 2007 and 2012 at 51 health facilities in Kenya. We evaluated the association between patient- and facility-level covariates at the time of ART eligibility and time to ART initiation. We also explored the determinants associated with timeliness of ART initiation. RESULTS: The analysis included 11,942 patients. The median age at the time eligibility was first determined was 37 years (interquartile range [IQR] 31-45). Overall, 75% of patients initiated ART within two months of eligibility. The median CD4 cell count at the time eligibility was first determined rose from 132 (IQR 51-217) in 2007 to 195 (IQR 91-286) in 2011 to 2012 (p<0.001). The cumulative probability of ART initiation among treatment-eligible patients increased over time: 87.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 85.1-89.0%) in 2007; 96.8% (96.0-97.5%) in 2008; 97.1% (96.3-97.7%) in 2009; 98.5% (98.0 -98.9%) in 2010; and 99.7% (95% CI 99.4 -99.8%) in 2011 to 2012 (p<0.0001). In multivariate analyses, attending a health facility with high ART patient volumes within two months of eligibility was considered the key facility-level determinant of ART initiation (adjusted odds ratio 0.57, 95% CI 0.45-0.72, p<0.001). Patient-level determinants included being eligible for ART in the years subsequent to 2007, advanced World Health Organization clinical stage and low CD4 cell count at the time eligibility was first determined. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the time between treatment eligibility and ART initiation decreased substantially in Kenya between 2007 and 2012, with uniform gains across different types of health facilities. Our findings highlight the slow increase in CD4 cell counts at the time of ART eligibility over time, indicating that a large number of patients are still beginning ART with advanced HIV disease. Our findings also support the decentralisation of ART services at all health facilities that have the capacity to initiate treatment. Continued evaluation of programme- and country-level data is needed to monitor timeliness of ART initiation as countries continue to expand treatment access.

Uptake of WHO recommendations for first-line antiretroviral therapy in Kenya, Uganda, and Zambia.

INTRODUCTION: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) guidelines were significantly changed by the World Health Organization in 2010. It is largely unknown to what extent these guidelines were adopted into clinical practice. METHODS: This was a retrospective observational analysis of first-line ART regimens in a sample of health facilities providing ART in Kenya, Uganda, and Zambia between 2007-2008 and 2011-2012. Data were analyzed for changes in regimen over time and assessed for key patient- and facility-level determinants of tenofovir (TDF) utilization in Kenya and Uganda using a mixed effects model. RESULTS: Data were obtained from 29,507 patients from 146 facilities. The overall percentage of patients initiated on TDF-based therapy increased between 2007-2008 and 2011-2012 from 3% to 37% in Kenya, 2% to 34% in Uganda, and 64% to 87% in Zambia. A simultaneous decrease in stavudine (d4T) utilization was also noted, but its use was not eliminated, and there remained significant variation in facility prescribing patterns. For patients initiating ART in 2011-2012, we found increased odds of TDF use with more advanced disease at initiation in both Kenya (odds ratio [OR]: 2.78; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.73-4.48) and Uganda (OR: 2.15; 95% CI: 1.46-3.17). Having a CD4 test performed at initiation was also a significant predictor in Uganda (OR: 1.43; 95% CI: 1.16-1.76). No facility-level determinants of TDF utilization were seen in Kenya, but private facilities (OR: 2.86; 95% CI: 1.45-5.66) and those employing a doctor (OR: 2.86; 95% CI: 1.48-5.51) were more likely to initiate patients on TDF in Uganda. DISCUSSION: d4T-based ART has largely been phased out over the study period. However, significant in-country and cross-country variation exists. Among the most recently initiated patients, those with more advanced disease at initiation were most likely to start TDF-based treatment. No facility-level determinants were consistent across countries to explain the observed facility-level variation.

Trends and Determinants of Antiretroviral Therapy Patient Monitoring Practices in Kenya and Uganda.

INTRODUCTION: Patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) require routine monitoring to track response to treatment and assess for treatment failure. This study aims to identify gaps in monitoring practices in Kenya and Uganda. METHODS: We conducted a systematic retrospective chart review of adults who initiated ART between 2007 and 2012. We assessed the availability of baseline measurements (CD4 count, weight, and WHO stage) and ongoing CD4 and weight monitoring according to national guidelines in place at the time. Mixed-effects logistic regression models were used to analyze facility and patient factors associated with meeting monitoring guidelines. RESULTS: From 2007 to 2012, at least 88% of patients per year in Uganda had a recorded weight at initiation, while in Kenya there was a notable increase from 69% to 90%. Patients with a documented baseline CD4 count increased from 69% to about 80% in both countries. In 2012, 83% and 86% of established patients received the recommended quarterly weight monitoring in Kenya and Uganda, respectively, while semiannual CD4 monitoring was less common (49% in Kenya and 38% in Uganda). Initiating at a more advanced WHO stage was associated with a lower odds of baseline CD4 testing. On-site CD4 analysis capacity was associated with increased odds of CD4 testing at baseline and in the future. DISCUSSION: Substantial gaps were noted in ongoing CD4 monitoring of patients on ART. Although guidelines have since changed, limited laboratory capacity is likely to remain a significant issue in monitoring patients on ART, with important implications for ensuring quality care.

The impact of age, temperature, and parasite density on treatment outcomes from antimalarial clinical trials in Kampala, Uganda.

Antimalarial drug treatment policy in sub-Saharan Africa is generally guided by the results of clinical drug efficacy studies in patients with uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria. The selection criteria used to enroll these patients often vary and may have a significant impact on treatment outcomes. In Kampala, Uganda, we investigated the impact of age, baseline temperature, and pre-treatment parasite density on estimates of treatment efficacy using a statistical modeling approach in 2,138 patients enrolled in six clinical trials involving seven different treatment regimens. Decreasing age, increasing temperature, and increasing parasite density were all independent predictors of an increased risk of treatment failure across all treatment groups. Compared with an unrestrictive approach to subject selection, enrolling only patients fulfilling selection criteria recommended by the World Health Organization (age < 5 years old, documented fever, and parasite density < 200,000/microL) increased the risk of treatment failure by 25-60% for the different treatment regimens. Caution should be taken when comparing results from drug efficacy studies with different subject selection criteria.

Comparative efficacy of aminoquinoline-antifolate combinations for the treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria in Kampala, Uganda.

Resistance to chloroquine (CQ) requires its replacement as first-line therapy for uncomplicated malaria in much of Africa. Combination therapy may improve efficacy and delay the selection of resistant malaria parasites. Combinations of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) with 4-aminoquinolines offer affordable and available alternatives to CQ. We conducted a randomized, single-blinded trial to compare the efficacy of SP monotherapy with combinations of SP and either CQ or amodiaquine (AQ) for the treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria in patients over 6 months of age in Kampala, Uganda. Of the 448 patients enrolled, 428 (95%) completed follow-up. Clinical treatment failure after 14 days occurred in 21/140 (15.0%, 95% CI 9.5-22.0%) SP-treated, 11/152 (7.2%, 95% CI 3.7-12.6%) SP/CQ-treated, and 0/136 (0%, 95% CI 0-2.7%) SP/AQ-treated patients. Combination therapies were safe and offered superior efficacy to SP monotherapy. SP/AQ was the most efficacious. This low-cost combination regimen may provide an optimal alternative to CQ for the treatment of uncomplicated malaria in Uganda.

The implementation of Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response in Uganda: a review of progress and challenges between 2001 and 2007.

BACKGROUND: In 2000 Uganda adopted the Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) strategy, which aims to create a co-ordinated approach to the collection, analysis, interpretation, use and dissemination of surveillance data for guiding decision making on public health actions. METHODS: We used a monitoring framework recommended by World Health Organization (WHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)-Atlanta to evaluate performance of the IDSR core indicators at the national level from 2001 to 2007. To determine the performance of IDSR at district and health facility levels over a 5-year period, we compared the evaluation results of a 2004 surveillance survey with findings from a baseline assessment in 2000. We also examined national-level funding for IDSR implementation during 2000-07. RESULTS: Our findings show improvements in the performance of IDSR, including: (1) improved reporting at the district level (49% in 2001; 85% in 2007); (2) an increase and then decrease in timeliness of reporting from districts to central level; and (3) an increase in analysed data at the local level (from 10% to 47% analysing at least one target disease, P < 0.01). The case fatality rate (CFR) for two target priority diseases (cholera and meningococcal meningitis) decreased during IDSR implementation (cholera: from 7% to 2%; meningitis: from 16% to 4%), most likely due to improved outbreak response. A comparison before and after implementation showed increased funding for IDSR from government and development partners. However, funding support decreased ten-fold from the government budget of 2000/01 through to 2007/08. Per capita input for disease surveillance activities increased from US$0.0046 in 1996-99 to US$0.0215 in 2000-07. CONCLUSION: Implementation of IDSR was associated with improved surveillance and response efforts. However, decreased budgetary support from the government may be eroding these gains. Renewed efforts from government and other stakeholders are necessary to sustain and expand progress achieved through implementation of IDSR.

The effect of HIV on malaria in the context of the current standard of care for HIV-infected populations in Africa.

HIV infection affects the clinical pattern of malaria. There is emerging evidence to suggest that previously documented interactions may be modified by recently scaled-up HIV and malaria interventions. Prophylaxis with trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (TS) in combination with use of insecticide-treated nets can markedly decrease the incidence of malaria in HIV-infected pregnant and nonpregnant adults and children even in the setting of antifolate resistance-conferring mutations that are currently common in Africa. Nonetheless, additional interventions are needed to protect HIV-infected people that reside in high-malaria-transmission areas. Artemether-lumefantrine and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine are highly efficacious and safe for the treatment of uncomplicated malaria in HIV-infected persons. Coadministration of antiretroviral and antimalarial drugs creates the potential for pharmacokinetic drug interactions that may increase (causing enhancement of malaria treatment efficacy and post-treatment prophylaxis and/or unanticipated toxicity) or reduce (creating risk for treatment failure) antimalarial drug exposure. Further studies are needed to elucidate potentially important pharmacokinetic interactions between commonly used antimalarials, antiretrovirals and TS and their clinical implications. Data on the benefits of long-term TS prophylaxis among HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy who have achieved immune-reconstitution are limited. Studies to address these questions are ongoing or planned, and the results should provide the evidence base required to guide the prevention and treatment of malaria in HIV-infected patients.