Bayesian modeling to unmask and predict influenza A/H1N1pdm dynamics in London.

The tracking and projection of emerging epidemics is hindered by the disconnect between apparent epidemic dynamics, discernible from noisy and incomplete surveillance data, and the underlying, imperfectly observed, system. Behavior changes compound this, altering both true dynamics and reporting patterns, particularly for diseases with nonspecific symptoms, such as influenza. We disentangle these effects to unravel the hidden dynamics of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1pdm pandemic in London, where surveillance suggests an unusual dominant peak in the summer. We embed an age-structured model into a bayesian synthesis of multiple evidence sources to reveal substantial changes in contact patterns and health-seeking behavior throughout the epidemic, uncovering two similar infection waves, despite large differences in the reported levels of disease. We show how this approach, which allows for real-time learning about model parameters as the epidemic progresses, is also able to provide a sequence of nested projections that are capable of accurately reflecting the epidemic evolution.

Dynamic models of pneumococcal carriage and the impact of the Heptavalent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine on invasive pneumococcal disease.

BACKGROUND: The 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine has been introduced in national immunisation programmes of most industrialised countries and recently in two African GAVI eligible countries (Rwanda and The Gambia). However the long term effects of PCV are still unclear, as beneficial direct and herd immunity effects might be countered by serotype replacement. METHOD: A dynamic, age-structured, compartmental model of Streptococcus pneumoniae transmission was developed to predict the potential impact of PCV7 on the incidence of invasive disease accounting for both herd immunity and serotype replacement effects. The model was parameterised using epidemiological data from England and Wales and pre and post-vaccination surveillance data from the US. RESULTS: Model projections showed that serotype replacement plays a crucial role in determining the overall effect of a PCV7 vaccination programme and could reduce, negate or outweigh its beneficial impact. However, using the estimate of the competition parameter derived from the US post-vaccination experience, an infant vaccination programme would prevent 39,000 IPD cases in the 20 years after PCV7 introduction in the UK. Adding a catch-up campaign for under 2 or under 5 year olds would provide a further reduction of 1,200 or 3,300 IPD cases respectively, mostly in the first few years of the programme. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis suggests that a PCV vaccination programme would eradicate vaccine serotypes from circulation. However, the increase in carriage of non-vaccine serotypes, and the consequent increase in invasive disease, could reduce, negate or outweigh the benefit. These results are sensitive to changes in the protective effect of the vaccine, and, most importantly, to the level of competition between vaccine and non-vaccine types. The techniques developed here can be used to assess the introduction of vaccination programmes in developing countries and provide the basis for cost-effectiveness analyses.

Delaying the international spread of pandemic influenza.

BACKGROUND: The recent emergence of hypervirulent subtypes of avian influenza has underlined the potentially devastating effects of pandemic influenza. Were such a virus to acquire the ability to spread efficiently between humans, control would almost certainly be hampered by limited vaccine supplies unless global spread could be substantially delayed. Moreover, the large increases that have occurred in international air travel might be expected to lead to more rapid global dissemination than in previous pandemics. METHODS AND FINDINGS: To evaluate the potential of local control measures and travel restrictions to impede global dissemination, we developed stochastic models of the international spread of influenza based on extensions of coupled epidemic transmission models. These models have been shown to be capable of accurately forecasting local and global spread of epidemic and pandemic influenza. We show that under most scenarios restrictions on air travel are likely to be of surprisingly little value in delaying epidemics, unless almost all travel ceases very soon after epidemics are detected. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions to reduce local transmission of influenza are likely to be more effective at reducing the rate of global spread and less vulnerable to implementation delays than air travel restrictions. Nevertheless, under the most plausible scenarios, achievable delays are small compared with the time needed to accumulate substantial vaccine stocks.

Reconstructing a spatially heterogeneous epidemic: Characterising the geographic spread of 2009 A/H1N1pdm infection in England.

Understanding how the geographic distribution of and movements within a population influence the spatial spread of infections is crucial for the design of interventions to curb transmission. Existing knowledge is typically based on results from simulation studies whereas analyses of real data remain sparse. The main difficulty in quantifying the spatial pattern of disease spread is the paucity of available data together with the challenge of incorporating optimally the limited information into models of disease transmission. To address this challenge the role of routine migration on the spatial pattern of infection during the epidemic of 2009 pandemic influenza in England is investigated here through two modelling approaches: parallel-region models, where epidemics in different regions are assumed to occur in isolation with shared characteristics; and meta-region models where inter-region transmission is expressed as a function of the commuter flux between regions. Results highlight that the significantly less computationally demanding parallel-region approach is sufficiently flexible to capture the underlying dynamics. This suggests that inter-region movement is either inaccurately characterized by the available commuting data or insignificant once its initial impact on transmission has subsided.

Dynamic models of meningococcal carriage, disease, and the impact of serogroup C conjugate vaccination.

Much interest has surrounded the use of conjugate vaccines in recent years, with the development of vaccines against disease caused by Haemophilus influenzae type b, Neisseria meningitidis, and Streptococcus pneumoniae. These vaccines offer the potential for safe and effective disease control, but some questions remain, particularly regarding the duration and mechanisms of protection and the longer-term impact of vaccination on carriage. In this paper, the authors use data on immunization with serogroup C meningococcal conjugate vaccines in England and Wales to develop and apply a mathematical model to investigate the direct and indirect (herd immunity) effects of a conjugate vaccine program. A realistic, age-structured, dynamic model was developed and parameterized and was fitted to epidemiologic data from England and Wales. The effects of a range of vaccine strategies, including hypothetical scenarios, were investigated. The basic reproduction number was estimated to be 1.36. Catch-up vaccination targeting teenagers generated substantial herd immunity and was important in controlling disease rapidly. The results were sensitive to changes in the assumptions regarding the method of vaccine action, particularly duration of protection and efficacy of vaccination against carriage acquisition. This model can be used to help predict the potential impact of vaccine strategies both in the United Kingdom and elsewhere.

Reducing the global burden of congenital rubella syndrome: report of the World Health Organization Steering Committee On Research Related To Measles and Rubella Vaccines and Vaccination, June 2004.

Rubella and congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) continue to be important health problems in many countries. In June 2004, the World Health Organization Steering Committee on Research Related to Measles and Rubella Vaccines and Vaccination met to evaluate data from research and operational activities and to identify critical scientific issues and gaps in knowledge that need to be addressed to improve the global control of rubella and CRS. Information about surveillance for rubella, natural and vaccine-induced immunity to rubella, laboratory diagnosis, the molecular epidemiological profile of rubella virus, and mathematical modeling to assess the burden of CRS and the impact of rubella vaccination was reviewed. This report summarizes the presentations and recommendations for future research.

The theory of measles elimination: implications for the design of elimination strategies.

The theory of disease transmission provides a consistent framework within which to design, evaluate, and monitor measles elimination programs. Elimination of measles requires maintaining the effective reproduction number R at <1, by achieving and maintaining low levels of susceptibility. The essential features of different vaccination strategies (e.g., routine versus campaigns, number of doses) can be compared within this framework. Designing an elimination program for a particular population involves setting target levels of susceptibility, establishing the current susceptibility profile, selecting an approach to reduce susceptibility below the target, and selecting an approach to maintain susceptibility below the target. A key indicator of the sustainability of an elimination program is the residual level of susceptibility of a cohort after it has completed its scheduled vaccination opportunities. This can be estimated from vaccination coverage data. The high transmissibility of measles poses a significant challenge to any attempt to eliminate it.

Measles vaccine efficacy during an epidemic in 1998 in the highly vaccinated population of Poland.

A measles epidemic with 2255 reported cases occurred in Poland between November 1997 and July 1998, despite high vaccination coverage since the 1980s. Cases occurred at all ages less than 30 years but showed two distinct peaks: young, unvaccinated children born in 1996-1997 and once vaccinated young adults born 1976-1982. The 60% of cases were among persons aged 15 years or more. A cohort study was used to investigate measles vaccine efficacy. The efficacy of a single dose of vaccine exceeded 90% and the efficacy of two doses exceeded 99% in all age-groups. These results demonstrate both the high efficacy of the monovalent measles vaccines used in Poland and the benefit of a second dose of vaccine.

The potential cost-effectiveness of acellular pertussis booster vaccination in England and Wales.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of the introduction of acellular pertussis booster doses at either 4 or 15 years of age was performed. A transmission dynamic model was used to predict the level of indirect protection in those too young to be vaccinated. Multivariate sensitivity analyses were performed. In England and Wales there are an estimated 35,000 general practitioner (GP) consultations, 5500 inpatient days, and nine deaths annually attributable to pertussis, despite high levels of coverage for the primary course (approximately 95%). Around 80% of the bed-days and 90% of the deaths occur in those too young to be immunised (< 3 months of age). The introduction of acellular booster doses at 4 years is expected to reduce morbidity and mortality in the younger age groups by 40-100%, and at 15 years by 0-100%. From the perspective of the health care provider, roughly 50% of the simulations result in a cost per life-year gained of less than 10,000 pounds for vaccination at 4 years, the corresponding proportion for vaccination at 15 years being only 35%. Apart from the degree of indirect protection the model was most sensitive to the discount rate, the price of the vaccine, and the mortality rate. Significant uncertainty remains regarding the epidemiology of pertussis and the impact of booster doses. Nevertheless, the introduction of acellular boosters, particularly at 4 years, has the potential to be cost-effective in the UK.

Assessment of the status of measles elimination from reported outbreaks: United States, 1997-1999.

The status of measles elimination is best summarized by evaluation of the effective reproduction number R; maintaining R<1 is necessary and sufficient to achieve elimination. Previously described methods for estimating R from the sizes and durations of chains of measles transmission and the proportion of cases imported were applied to the measles data reported for the United States in 1997-1999. These comprised 338 cases, forming 165 chains of transmission, of which 43 had >1 case. One hundred seven cases were classified as importations. All 3 methods suggested that R was in the range 0.6-0.7. Results were not sensitive to the minimum size and duration of outbreak considered (so long as single-case chains were excluded) or to exclusion of chains without a known imported source. These results demonstrate that susceptibility to measles was beneath the epidemic threshold and that endemic transmission was eliminated.