Towards advancing scientific knowledge of climate change impacts on short-duration rainfall extremes.

A large number of recent studies have aimed at understanding short-duration rainfall extremes, due to their impacts on flash floods, landslides and debris flows and potential for these to worsen with global warming. This has been led in a concerted international effort by the INTENSE Crosscutting Project of the GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Exchanges) Hydroclimatology Panel. Here, we summarize the main findings so far and suggest future directions for research, including: the benefits of convection-permitting climate modelling; towards understanding mechanisms of change; the usefulness of temperature-scaling relations; towards detecting and attributing extreme rainfall change; and the need for international coordination and collaboration. Evidence suggests that the intensity of long-duration (1 day+) heavy precipitation increases with climate warming close to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) rate (6-7% K-1), although large-scale circulation changes affect this response regionally. However, rare events can scale at higher rates, and localized heavy short-duration (hourly and sub-hourly) intensities can respond more strongly (e.g. 2 × CC instead of CC). Day-to-day scaling of short-duration intensities supports a higher scaling, with mechanisms proposed for this related to local-scale dynamics of convective storms, but its relevance to climate change is not clear. Uncertainty in changes to precipitation extremes remains and is influenced by many factors, including large-scale circulation, convective storm dynamics andstratification. Despite this, recent research has increased confidence in both the detectability and understanding of changes in various aspects of intense short-duration rainfall. To make further progress, the international coordination of datasets, model experiments and evaluations will be required, with consistent and standardized comparison methods and metrics, and recommendations are made for these frameworks. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks'.

Similar selective factors affect both between-gene and between-exon divergence in Drosophila.

As a consequence of alternative splicing, a gene's exons will have different frequencies of inclusion into mature mRNA and different patterns of expression. These differences affect their patterns of evolutionary divergence. Using the recently reannotated genome of Drosophila melanogaster and the genome sequences of four closely related species of the melanogaster subgroup, we investigated the effect of alternative splicing, inclusion level (defined as the number of transcripts an exon is found in), and expression pattern on exon evolution across divergence times ranging from 1 to 12.5 Ma. Genes undergoing alternative splicing have a broader pattern of expression associated with a lower divergence rate in comparison with genes with a single annotated protein isoform. Within genes undergoing alternative splicing, we report a significant effect of inclusion level on exon evolution, as alternatively spliced exons are less conserved than constitutively spliced exons. More generally, there are significant negative correlations between inclusion level and exon evolutionary rates that can be associated with relaxation of selection. A significant effect of expression pattern on evolution rates is also observed. Overall, we found that similar selective factors such as the expression level and the pattern of expression are affecting both gene and exon evolution.

Positive Selection of a Serine Residue in Bat IRF3 Confers Enhanced Antiviral Protection.

Compared with other mammals, bats harbor more zoonotic viruses per species and do not demonstrate signs of disease on infection with these viruses. To counteract infections with viruses, bats have evolved enhanced mechanisms to limit virus replication and immunopathology. However, molecular and cellular drivers of antiviral responses in bats largely remain an enigma. In this study, we demonstrate that a serine residue in IRF3 is positively selected for in multiple bat species. IRF3 is a central regulator of innate antiviral responses in mammals. Replacing the serine residue in bat IRF3 with the human leucine residue decreased antiviral protection in bat cells, whereas the addition of this serine residue in human IRF3 significantly enhanced antiviral protection in human cells. Our study provides genetic and functional evidence for enhanced IRF3-mediated antiviral responses in bats and adds support to speculations that bats have positively selected for multiple adaptations in their antiviral immune responses.

Integrated urban hydrometeorological, climate and environmental services: Concept, methodology and key messages.

Integrated Urban hydrometeorological, climate and environmental Services (IUS) is a World Meteorological Organization (WMO) initiative to aid development of science-based services to support safe, healthy, resilient and climate friendly cities. Guidance for Integrated Urban Hydrometeorological, Climate and Environmental Services (Volume I) has been developed with the intent to provide an overview of the concept, methods and good practices for producing and providing these services to respond to urban hazards across a range of time scales (weather to climate). This involves combining (dense) heterogeneous observation networks, high-resolution forecasts, multi-hazard early warning systems and climate services to assist cities in setting and implementing mitigation and adaptation strategies for the management and building of resilient and sustainable cities. IUS includes research, evaluation and delivery with a wide participation from city governments, national hydrometeorological services, international organizations, universities, research institutions and private sector stakeholders. An overview of the IUS concept with key messages, examples of good practice and recommendations are provided. The research community will play an important role to: identify critical research challenges; develop impact forecasts and warnings; promote and deliver IUS internationally, and; support national and local communities in the implementation of IUS thereby contributing to the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals at all scales.

Uncorrected nucleotide bias in mtDNA can mimic the effects of positive Darwinian selection.

The relative rates of nucleotide substitution at synonymous and nonsynonymous sites within protein-coding regions have been widely used to infer the action of natural selection from comparative sequence data. It is known, however, that mutational and repair biases can affect rates of evolution at both synonymous and nonsynonymous sites. More importantly, it is also known that synonymous sites are particularly prone to the effects of nucleotide bias. This means that nucleotide biases may affect the calculated ratio of substitution rates at synonymous and nonsynonymous sites. Using a large data set of animal mitochondrial sequences, we demonstrate that this is, in fact, the case. Highly biased nucleotide sequences are characterized by significantly elevated dN/dS ratios, but only when the nucleotide frequencies are not taken into account. When the analysis is repeated taking the nucleotide frequencies at each codon position into account, such elevated ratios disappear. These results suggest that the recently reported differences in dN/dS ratios between vertebrate and invertebrate mitochondrial sequences could be explained by variations in mitochondrial nucleotide frequencies rather than the effects of positive Darwinian selection.

Parallel evolution of site-specific changes in divergent caribou lineages.

The parallel evolution of phenotypes or traits within or between species provides important insight into the basic mechanisms of evolution. Genetic and genomic advances have allowed investigations into the genetic underpinnings of parallel evolution and the independent evolution of similar traits in sympatric species. Parallel evolution may best be exemplified among species where multiple genetic lineages, descended from a common ancestor, colonized analogous environmental niches, and converged on a genotypic or phenotypic trait. Modern North American caribou (Rangifer tarandus) originated from three ancestral sources separated during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM): the Beringian-Eurasian lineage (BEL), the North American lineage (NAL), and the High Arctic lineage (HAL). Historical introgression between the NAL and the BEL has been found throughout Ontario and eastern Manitoba. In this study, we first characterized the functional differentiation in the cytochrome-b (cytB) gene by identifying nonsynonymous changes. Second, the caribou lineages were used as a direct means to assess site-specific parallel changes among lineages. There was greater functional diversity within the NAL despite the BEL having greater neutral diversity. The patterns of amino acid substitutions occurring within different lineages supported the parallel evolution of cytB amino acid substitutions suggesting different selective pressures among lineages. This study highlights the independent evolution of identical amino acid substitutions within a wide-ranging mammal species that have diversified from different ancestral haplogroups and where ecological niches can invoke parallel evolution.

Development of a browser application to foster research on linking climate and health datasets: Challenges and opportunities.

BACKGROUND: Improved data linkages between diverse environment and health datasets have the potential to provide new insights into the health impacts of environmental exposures, including complex climate change processes. Initiatives that link and explore big data in the environment and health arenas are now being established. OBJECTIVES: To encourage advances in this nascent field, this article documents the development of a web browser application to facilitate such future research, the challenges encountered to date, and how they were addressed. METHODS: A 'storyboard approach' was used to aid the initial design and development of the application. The application followed a 3-tier architecture: a spatial database server for storing and querying data, server-side code for processing and running models, and client-side browser code for user interaction and for displaying data and results. The browser was validated by reproducing previously published results from a regression analysis of time-series datasets of daily mortality, air pollution and temperature in London. RESULTS: Data visualisation and analysis options of the application are presented. The main factors that shaped the development of the browser were: accessibility, open-source software, flexibility, efficiency, user-friendliness, licensing restrictions and data confidentiality, visualisation limitations, cost-effectiveness, and sustainability. CONCLUSIONS: Creating dedicated data and analysis resources, such as the one described here, will become an increasingly vital step in improving understanding of the complex interconnections between the environment and human health and wellbeing, whilst still ensuring appropriate confidentiality safeguards. The issues raised in this paper can inform the future development of similar tools by other researchers working in this field.

Investigation of intercellular salicylic acid accumulation during compatible and incompatible Arabidopsis-pseudomonas syringae interactions using a fast neutron-generated mutant allele of EDS5 identified by genetic mapping and whole-genome sequencing.

A whole-genome sequencing technique developed to identify fast neutron-induced deletion mutations revealed that iap1-1 is a new allele of EDS5 (eds5-5). RPS2-AvrRpt2-initiated effector-triggered immunity (ETI) was compromised in iap1-1/eds5-5 with respect to in planta bacterial levels and the hypersensitive response, while intra- and intercellular free salicylic acid (SA) accumulation was greatly reduced, suggesting that SA contributes as both an intracellular signaling molecule and an antimicrobial agent in the intercellular space during ETI. During the compatible interaction between wild-type Col-0 and virulent Pseudomonas syringae pv. tomato (Pst), little intercellular free SA accumulated, which led to the hypothesis that Pst suppresses intercellular SA accumulation. When Col-0 was inoculated with a coronatine-deficient strain of Pst, high levels of intercellular SA accumulation were observed, suggesting that Pst suppresses intercellular SA accumulation using its phytotoxin coronatine. This work suggests that accumulation of SA in the intercellular space is an important component of basal/PAMP-triggered immunity as well as ETI to pathogens that colonize the intercellular space.

Data mashups: potential contribution to decision support on climate change and health.

Linking environmental, socioeconomic and health datasets provides new insights into the potential associations between climate change and human health and wellbeing, and underpins the development of decision support tools that will promote resilience to climate change, and thus enable more effective adaptation. This paper outlines the challenges and opportunities presented by advances in data collection, storage, analysis, and access, particularly focusing on "data mashups". These data mashups are integrations of different types and sources of data, frequently using open application programming interfaces and data sources, to produce enriched results that were not necessarily the original reason for assembling the raw source data. As an illustration of this potential, this paper describes a recently funded initiative to create such a facility in the UK for use in decision support around climate change and health, and provides examples of suitable sources of data and the purposes to which they can be directed, particularly for policy makers and public health decision makers.

Yersinia pestis and the plague of Justinian 541-543 AD: a genomic analysis.

BACKGROUND: Yersinia pestis has caused at least three human plague pandemics. The second (Black Death, 14-17th centuries) and third (19-20th centuries) have been genetically characterised, but there is only a limited understanding of the first pandemic, the Plague of Justinian (6-8th centuries). To address this gap, we sequenced and analysed draft genomes of Y pestis obtained from two individuals who died in the first pandemic. METHODS: Teeth were removed from two individuals (known as A120 and A76) from the early medieval Aschheim-Bajuwarenring cemetery (Aschheim, Bavaria, Germany). We isolated DNA from the teeth using a modified phenol-chloroform method. We screened DNA extracts for the presence of the Y pestis-specific pla gene on the pPCP1 plasmid using primers and standards from an established assay, enriched the DNA, and then sequenced it. We reconstructed draft genomes of the infectious Y pestis strains, compared them with a database of genomes from 131 Y pestis strains from the second and third pandemics, and constructed a maximum likelihood phylogenetic tree. FINDINGS: Radiocarbon dating of both individuals (A120 to 533 AD [plus or minus 98 years]; A76 to 504 AD [plus or minus 61 years]) places them in the timeframe of the first pandemic. Our phylogeny contains a novel branch (100% bootstrap at all relevant nodes) leading to the two Justinian samples. This branch has no known contemporary representatives, and thus is either extinct or unsampled in wild rodent reservoirs. The Justinian branch is interleaved between two extant groups, 0.ANT1 and 0.ANT2, and is distant from strains associated with the second and third pandemics. INTERPRETATION: We conclude that the Y pestis lineages that caused the Plague of Justinian and the Black Death 800 years later were independent emergences from rodents into human beings. These results show that rodent species worldwide represent important reservoirs for the repeated emergence of diverse lineages of Y pestis into human populations. FUNDING: McMaster University, Northern Arizona University, Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, Canada Research Chairs Program, US Department of Homeland Security, US National Institutes of Health, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATES OF SELECTION COEFFICIENTS FROM DNA SEQUENCE DATA.

Selection can have a significant effect on sequence evolution and this will be reflected in the information contained within the phylogenetic relationships between species. Selection will reduce the frequency of any deleterious nucleotides, and this can be used to test for the presence of selection. The frequencies of different nucleotides can be predicted theoretically and compared to observed values. If a sample of sequences has an usually low frequency of a particular nucleotide then selection might be inferred to have acted upon these sequences. This conclusion can be true only if the sequences are not too closely related and if sufficient mutations have occurred during their evolution. Otherwise, the unusual pattern of nucleotides in the sequences may be caused by recent common ancestry. An algorithm is presented to obtain maximum-likelihood estimates of selection coefficients using the phylogenetic information contained within sequence data. A k-allele model is developed that uses the phylogeny to measure relative mutation rates and degrees of relatedness and to evaluate the likelihood in the presence of selection. The method is illustrated with examples from the NS2 genes of influenza viruses and the MHC genes of mice. It is shown that the maximum-likelihood estimate for mutation rates are very large for. influenza viruses and that statistically significant selection acts to maintain a specific coding sequence. Overall, the MHC genes also have significant selection to preserve the coding sequence, but at the antigen recognition site, this selection is reversed to promote genetic variation. Maximum-likelihood estimates of these selection coefficients are provided.