The distribution of manta rays in the western North Atlantic Ocean off the eastern United States.

In 2018, the giant manta ray was listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. We integrated decades of sightings and survey effort data from multiple sources in a comprehensive species distribution modeling (SDM) framework to evaluate the distribution of giant manta rays off the eastern United States, including the Gulf of Mexico. Manta rays were most commonly detected at productive nearshore and shelf-edge upwelling zones at surface thermal frontal boundaries within a temperature range of approximately 20-30 °C. SDMs predicted highest nearshore occurrence off northeastern Florida during April, with the distribution extending northward along the shelf-edge as temperatures warm, leading to higher occurrences north of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina from June to October, and then south of Savannah, Georgia from November to March as temperatures cool. In the Gulf of Mexico, the highest nearshore occurrence was predicted around the Mississippi River delta from April to June and again from October to November. SDM predictions will allow resource managers to more effectively protect manta rays from fisheries bycatch, boat strikes, oil and gas activities, contaminants and pollutants, and other threats.

An open spatial capture-recapture model for estimating density, movement, and population dynamics from line-transect surveys.

The purpose of many wildlife population studies is to estimate density, movement, or demographic parameters. Linking these parameters to covariates, such as habitat features, provides additional ecological insight and can be used to make predictions for management purposes. Line-transect surveys, combined with distance sampling methods, are often used to estimate density at discrete points in time, whereas capture-recapture methods are used to estimate movement and other demographic parameters. Recently, open population spatial capture-recapture models have been developed, which simultaneously estimate density and demographic parameters, but have been made available only for data collected from a fixed array of detectors and have not incorporated the effects of habitat covariates. We developed a spatial capture-recapture model that can be applied to line-transect survey data by modeling detection probability in a manner analogous to distance sampling. We extend this model to a) estimate demographic parameters using an open population framework and b) model variation in density and space use as a function of habitat covariates. The model is illustrated using simulated data and aerial line-transect survey data for North Atlantic right whales in the southeastern United States, which also demonstrates the ability to integrate data from multiple survey platforms and accommodate differences between strata or demographic groups. When individuals detected from line-transect surveys can be uniquely identified, our model can be used to simultaneously make inference on factors that influence spatial and temporal variation in density, movement, and population dynamics.

Abundance estimation for line transect sampling: A comparison of distance sampling and spatial capture-recapture models.

Accurate and precise abundance estimation is vital for informed wildlife conservation and management decision-making. Line transect surveys are a common sampling approach for abundance estimation. Distance sampling is often used to estimate abundance from line transect survey data; however, search encounter spatial capture-recapture can also be used when individuals in the population of interest are identifiable. The search encounter spatial capture-recapture model has rarely been applied, and its performance has not been compared to that of distance sampling. We analyzed simulated datasets to compare the performance of distance sampling and spatial capture-recapture abundance estimators. Additionally, we estimated the abundance of North Atlantic right whales in the southeastern United States with two formulations of each model and compared the estimates. Spatial capture-recapture abundance estimates had lower root mean squared error than distance sampling estimates. Spatial capture-recapture 95% credible intervals for abundance had nominal coverage, i.e., contained the simulating value for abundance in 95% of simulations, whereas distance sampling credible intervals had below nominal coverage. Moreover, North Atlantic right whale abundance estimates from distance sampling models were more sensitive to model specification compared to spatial capture-recapture estimates. When estimating abundance from line transect data, researchers should consider using search encounter spatial capture-recapture when individuals in the population of interest are identifiable, when line transects are surveyed over multiple occasions, when there is imperfect detection of individuals located on the line transect, and when it is safe to assume the population of interest is closed demographically. When line transects are surveyed over multiple occasions, researchers should be aware that individual space use may induce spatial autocorrelation in counts across transects. This is not accounted for in common distance sampling estimators and leads to overly precise abundance estimates.

A hidden Markov model for estimating age-specific survival when age and size are uncertain.

Estimates of age-specific survival probabilities are needed for age-structured population models and to inform conservation decisions. However, determining the age of individuals in wildlife populations is often problematic. We present a hidden Markov model for estimating age-specific survival from capture-recapture or capture-recapture-recovery data when age is unknown and indicators of age, such as size and growth layer counts, are imprecise. The model is evaluated through simulations, and its implementation is illustrated with maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches in commonly used software. The model is then applied to genetic capture-recapture data of Florida manatees to estimate age- and time-variant survival probabilities. The approach is broadly applicable to studies aiming to quantify age-specific effects of environmental change and management actions on population dynamics, including studies that rely on minimally invasive methods such as genetic and photo identification.

Temporal and demographic variation in partial migration of the North Atlantic right whale.

Animal movement plays a fundamental role in the ecology of migratory species, and understanding migration patterns is required for effective management. To evaluate intrinsic and environmental factors associated with probabilities of endangered North Atlantic right whales Eubalaena glacialis migrating to a wintering ground off the southeastern United States (SEUS), we applied a multistate temporary emigration capture-recapture model to 22 years of photo-identification data. Migration probabilities for juveniles were generally higher yet more variable than those for adults, and non-calving adult females were the least likely group to migrate. The highest migration probabilities for juveniles and adult males coincided with years of relatively high calving rates, following years of higher prey availability in a fall feeding ground. Right whale migration to the SEUS can be classified as condition-dependent partial migration, which includes skipped breeding partial migration for reproductive females, and is likely influenced by tradeoffs among ecological factors such as reproductive costs and foraging opportunities that vary across individuals and time. The high variability in migration reported in this study provides insight into the ecological drivers of migration but presents challenges to right whale monitoring and conservation strategies.

Mycoplasma agassizii in Morafka's desert tortoise (Gopherus morafkai) in Mexico.

We conducted health evaluations of 69 wild and 22 captive Morafka's desert tortoises (Gopherus morafkai) in Mexico between 2005 and 2008. The wild tortoises were from 11 sites in the states of Sonora and Sinaloa, and the captive tortoises were from the state-managed Centro Ecológico de Sonora Zoo in Hermosillo and a private residence in the town of Alamos. We tested 88 tortoises for mycoplasmal upper respiratory tract disease (URTD) using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays for specific antibody and by culture and PCR for detection of Mycoplasma agassizii and Mycoplasma testudineum. Fifteen of 22 captive tortoises had one or more positive diagnostic test results for M. agassizii whereas no wild tortoises had positive tests. Tortoises with positive tests also had significantly more moderate and severe clinical signs of mycoplasmosis on beaks and nares compared to tortoises with negative tests. Captive tortoises also exhibited significantly more clinical signs of illness than did wild tortoises, including lethargy and moderate to severe ocular signs. The severity of trauma and diseases of the shell and integument did not differ significantly among tortoises by site; however, clinical signs of moderate to severe trauma and disease were more prevalent in older tortoises. Similar to research findings for other species in the genus Gopherus in the US, we found that URTD is an important disease in captive tortoises. If they escape or are released by intention or accident to the wild, captive tortoises are likely to pose risks to healthy, naïve wild populations.

Wintering habitat model for the North Atlantic Right Whale (Eubalaena glacialis) in the southeastern United States.

The coastal waters off the southeastern United States (SEUS) are a primary wintering ground for the endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis), used by calving females along with other adult and juvenile whales. Management actions implemented in this area for the recovery of the right whale population rely on accurate habitat characterization and the ability to predict whale distribution over time. We developed a temporally dynamic habitat model to predict wintering right whale distribution in the SEUS using a generalized additive model framework and aerial survey data from 2003/2004 through 2012/2013. We built upon previous habitat models for right whales in the SEUS and include data from new aerial surveys that extend the spatial coverage of the analysis, particularly in the northern portion of this wintering ground. We summarized whale sightings, survey effort corrected for probability of whale detection, and environmental data at a semimonthly resolution. Consistent with previous studies, sea surface temperature (SST), water depth, and survey year were significant predictors of right whale relative abundance. Additionally, distance to shore, distance to the 22°C SST isotherm, and an interaction between time of year and latitude (to account for the latitudinal migration of whales) were also selected in the analysis presented here. Predictions from the model revealed that the location of preferred habitat differs within and between years in correspondence with variation in environmental conditions. Although cow-calf pairs were rarely sighted in the company of other whales, there was minimal evidence that the preferred habitat of cow-calf pairs was different than that of whale groups without calves at the scale of this study. The results of this updated habitat model can be used to inform management decisions for a migratory species in a dynamic oceanic environment.

Seasonal variation in testosterone and performance in males of a non-territorial lizard species.

The ability to perform key behaviors, particularly those associated with reproduction, has been linked to reproductive success. However, it remains unclear as to which underlying mechanisms govern variation in the performance capacities of these behaviors. Due to its ability to mediate physiological and morphological changes, the steroid hormone testosterone has been hypothesized to influence performance. This hypothesis, however, has not been tested in a broad range of taxa or mating systems. In this study, seasonal patterns of bite force and locomotor performance were quantified concurrently with circulating testosterone levels in males of a non-territorial polygynous lizard species (Aspidoscelis sexlineata). Bite force and one measure of locomotor performance were significantly greater in the breeding season than in the post-breeding season, and this seasonal variation in performance was correlated with seasonal changes in testosterone levels. These results suggest that the performance capacities of behaviors important for acquiring mating opportunities in this species are maximized during the breeding season by elevated testosterone levels.