Phytoplankton and cyanobacteria abundances in mid-21st century lakes depend strongly on future land use and climate projections.

Land use and climate change are anticipated to affect phytoplankton of lakes worldwide. The effects will depend on the magnitude of projected land use and climate changes and lake sensitivity to these factors. We used random forests fit with long-term (1971-2016) phytoplankton and cyanobacteria abundance time series, climate observations (1971-2016), and upstream catchment land use (global Clumondo models for the year 2000) data from 14 European and 15 North American lakes basins. We projected future phytoplankton and cyanobacteria abundance in the 29 focal lake basins and 1567 lakes across focal regions based on three land use (sustainability, middle of the road, and regional rivalry) and two climate (RCP 2.6 and 8.5) scenarios to mid-21st century. On average, lakes are expected to have higher phytoplankton and cyanobacteria due to increases in both urban land use and temperature, and decreases in forest habitat. However, the relative importance of land use and climate effects varied substantially among regions and lakes. Accounting for land use and climate changes in a combined way based on extensive data allowed us to identify urbanization as the major driver of phytoplankton development in lakes located in urban areas, and climate as major driver in lakes located in remote areas where past and future land use changes were minimal. For approximately one-third of the studied lakes, both drivers were relatively important. The results of this large scale study suggest the best approaches for mitigating the effects of human activity on lake phytoplankton and cyanobacteria will depend strongly on lake sensitivity to long-term change and the magnitude of projected land use and climate changes at a given location. Our quantitative analyses suggest local management measures should focus on retaining nutrients in urban landscapes to prevent nutrient pollution from exacerbating ongoing changes to lake ecosystems from climate change.

Elucidation of Taste- and Odor-Producing Bacteria and Toxigenic Cyanobacteria in a Midwestern Drinking Water Supply Reservoir by Shotgun Metagenomic Analysis.

UNLABELLED: While commonplace in clinical settings, DNA-based assays for identification or enumeration of drinking water pathogens and other biological contaminants remain widely unadopted by the monitoring community. In this study, shotgun metagenomics was used to identify taste-and-odor producers and toxin-producing cyanobacteria over a 2-year period in a drinking water reservoir. The sequencing data implicated several cyanobacteria, including Anabaena spp., Microcystis spp., and an unresolved member of the order Oscillatoriales as the likely principal producers of geosmin, microcystin, and 2-methylisoborneol (MIB), respectively. To further demonstrate this, quantitative PCR (qPCR) assays targeting geosmin-producing Anabaena and microcystin-producing Microcystis were utilized, and these data were fitted using generalized linear models and compared with routine monitoring data, including microscopic cell counts, sonde-based physicochemical analyses, and assays of all inorganic and organic nitrogen and phosphorus forms and fractions. The qPCR assays explained the greatest variation in observed geosmin (adjusted R(2) = 0.71) and microcystin (adjusted R(2) = 0.84) concentrations over the study period, highlighting their potential for routine monitoring applications. The origin of the monoterpene cyclase required for MIB biosynthesis was putatively linked to a periphytic cyanobacterial mat attached to the concrete drinking water inflow structure. We conclude that shotgun metagenomics can be used to identify microbial agents involved in water quality deterioration and to guide PCR assay selection or design for routine monitoring purposes. Finally, we offer estimates of microbial diversity and metagenomic coverage of our data sets for reference to others wishing to apply shotgun metagenomics to other lacustrine systems. IMPORTANCE: Cyanobacterial toxins and microbial taste-and-odor compounds are a growing concern for drinking water utilities reliant upon surface water resources. Specific identification of the microorganism(s) responsible for water quality degradation is often complicated by the presence of co-occurring taxa capable of producing these undesirable metabolites. Here we present a framework for how shotgun metagenomics can be used to definitively identify problematic microorganisms and how these data can guide the development of rapid genetic assays for routine monitoring purposes.

Metagenomic mapping of cyanobacteria and potential cyanotoxin producing taxa in large rivers of the United States.

Cyanobacteria and cyanotoxin producing cyanobacterial blooms are a trending focus of current research. Many studies focus on bloom events in lentic environments such as lakes or ponds. Comparatively few studies have explored lotic environments and fewer still have examined the cyanobacterial communities and potential cyanotoxin producers during ambient, non-bloom conditions. Here we used a metagenomics-based approach to profile non-bloom microbial communities and cyanobacteria in 12 major U.S. rivers at multiple time points during the summer months of 2019. Our data show that U.S. rivers possess microbial communities that are taxonomically rich, yet largely consistent across geographic location and time. Within these communities, cyanobacteria often comprise significant portions and frequently include multiple species with known cyanotoxin producing strains. We further characterized these potential cyanotoxin producing taxa by deep sequencing amplicons of the microcystin E (mcyE) gene. We found that rivers containing the highest levels of potential cyanotoxin producing cyanobacteria consistently possess taxa with the genetic potential for cyanotoxin production and that, among these taxa, the predominant genus of origin for the mcyE gene is Microcystis. Combined, these data provide a unique perspective on cyanobacteria and potential cyanotoxin producing taxa that exist in large rivers across the U.S. and can be used to better understand the ambient conditions that may precede bloom events in lotic freshwater ecosystems.

Using cyanobacteria and other phytoplankton to assess trophic conditions: A qPCR-based, multi-year study in twelve large rivers across the United States.

Phytoplankton is the essential primary producer in fresh surface water ecosystems. However, excessive phytoplankton growth due to eutrophication significantly threatens ecologic, economic, and public health. Therefore, phytoplankton identification and quantification are essential to understanding the productivity and health of freshwater ecosystems as well as the impacts of phytoplankton overgrowth (such as Cyanobacterial blooms) on public health. Microscopy is the gold standard for phytoplankton assessment but is time-consuming, has low throughput, and requires rich experience in phytoplankton morphology. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) is accurate and straightforward with high throughput. In addition, qPCR does not require expertise in phytoplankton morphology. Therefore, qPCR can be a useful alternative for molecular identification and enumeration of phytoplankton. Nonetheless, a comprehensive study is missing which evaluates and compares the feasibility of using qPCR and microscopy to assess phytoplankton in fresh water. This study 1) compared the performance of qPCR and microscopy in identifying and quantifying phytoplankton and 2) evaluated qPCR as a molecular tool to assess phytoplankton and indicate eutrophication. We assessed phytoplankton using both qPCR and microscopy in twelve large freshwater rivers across the United States from early summer to late fall in 2017, 2018, and 2019. qPCR- and microscope-based phytoplankton abundance had a significant positive linear correlation (adjusted R2 = 0.836, p-value < 0.001). Phytoplankton abundance had limited temporal variation within each sampling season and over the three years studied. The sampling sites in the midcontinent rivers had higher phytoplankton abundance than those in the eastern and western rivers. For instance, the concentration (geometric mean) of Bacillariophyta, Cyanobacteria, Chlorophyta, and Dinoflagellates at the sampling sites in the midcontinent rivers was approximately three times that at the sampling sites in the western rivers and approximately 18 times that at the sampling sites in the eastern rivers. Welch's analysis of variance indicates that phytoplankton abundance at the sampling sites in the midcontinent rivers was significantly higher than that at the sampling sites in the eastern rivers (p-value = 0.013) but was comparable to that at the sampling sites in the western rivers (p-value = 0.095). The higher phytoplankton abundance at the sampling sites in the midcontinent rivers was presumably because these rivers were more eutrophic. Indeed, low phytoplankton abundance occurred in oligotrophic or low trophic sites, whereas eutrophic sites had greater phytoplankton abundance. This study demonstrates that qPCR-based phytoplankton abundance can be a useful numerical indicator of the trophic conditions and water quality in freshwater rivers.

Cyanotoxin mixtures and taste-and-odor compounds in cyanobacterial blooms from the Midwestern United States.

The mixtures of toxins and taste-and-odor compounds present during cyanobacterial blooms are not well characterized and of particular concern when evaluating potential human health risks. Cyanobacterial blooms were sampled in twenty-three Midwestern United States lakes and analyzed for community composition, thirteen cyanotoxins by liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry and immunoassay, and two taste-and-odor compounds by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. Aphanizomenon, Cylindrospermopsis and/or Microcystis were dominant in most (96%) blooms, but community composition was not strongly correlated with toxin and taste-and-odor occurrence. Microcystins occurred in all blooms. Total microcystin concentrations measured by liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry and immunoassay were linearly related (r(s) = 0.76, p < 0.01) and LC/MS/MS concentrations were lower than or similar to ELISA in most (85%) samples. Geosmin (87%), 2-methylisoborneol (39%), anatoxin-a (30%), saxitoxins (17%), cylindrospermopsins (9%), and nodularin-R (9%) also were present in these blooms. Multiple classes of cyanotoxins occurred in 48% of blooms and 95% had multiple microcystin variants. Toxins and taste-and-odor compounds frequently co-occurred (91% of blooms), indicating odor may serve as a warning that cyanotoxins likely are present. However, toxins occurred more frequently than taste-and-odor compounds, so odor alone does not provide sufficient warning to ensure human-health protection.

Estimating microcystin levels at recreational sites in western Lake Erie and Ohio.

Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (cyanoHABs) and associated toxins, such as microcystin, are a major global water-quality issue. Water-resource managers need tools to quickly predict when and where toxin-producing cyanoHABs will occur. This could be done by using site-specific models that estimate the potential for elevated toxin concentrations that cause public health concerns. With this study, samples were collected at three Ohio lakes to identify environmental and water-quality factors to develop linear-regression models to estimate microcystin levels. Measures of the algal community (phycocyanin, cyanobacterial biovolume, and cyanobacterial gene concentrations) and pH were most strongly correlated with microcystin concentrations. Cyanobacterial genes were quantified for general cyanobacteria, general Microcystis and Dolichospermum, and for microcystin synthetase (mcyE) for Microcystis, Dolichospermum, and Planktothrix. For phycocyanin, the relations were different between sites and were different between hand-held measurements on-site and nearby continuous monitor measurements for the same site. Continuous measurements of parameters such as phycocyanin, pH, and temperature over multiple days showed the highest correlations to microcystin concentrations. The development of models with high R2 values (0.81-0.90), sensitivities (92%), and specificities (100%) for estimating microcystin concentrations above or below the Ohio Recreational Public Health Advisory level of 6µgL-1 was demonstrated for one site; these statistics may change as more data are collected in subsequent years. This study showed that models could be developed for estimates of exceeding a microcystin threshold concentration at a recreational freshwater lake site, with potential to expand their use to provide relevant public health information to water resource managers and the public for both recreational and drinking waters.

Challenges for mapping cyanotoxin patterns from remote sensing of cyanobacteria.

Using satellite imagery to quantify the spatial patterns of cyanobacterial toxins has several challenges. These challenges include the need for surrogate pigments - since cyanotoxins cannot be directly detected by remote sensing, the variability in the relationship between the pigments and cyanotoxins - especially microcystins (MC), and the lack of standardization of the various measurement methods. A dual-model strategy can provide an approach to address these challenges. One model uses either chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) or phycocyanin (PC) collected in situ as a surrogate to estimate the MC concentration. The other uses a remote sensing algorithm to estimate the concentration of the surrogate pigment. Where blooms are mixtures of cyanobacteria and eukaryotic algae, PC should be the preferred surrogate to Chl-a. Where cyanobacteria dominate, Chl-a is a better surrogate than PC for remote sensing. Phycocyanin is less sensitive to detection by optical remote sensing, it is less frequently measured, PC laboratory methods are still not standardized, and PC has greater intracellular variability. Either pigment should not be presumed to have a fixed relationship with MC for any water body. The MC-pigment relationship can be valid over weeks, but have considerable intra- and inter-annual variability due to changes in the amount of MC produced relative to cyanobacterial biomass. To detect pigments by satellite, three classes of algorithms (analytic, semi-analytic, and derivative) have been used. Analytical and semi-analytical algorithms are more sensitive but less robust than derivatives because they depend on accurate atmospheric correction; as a result derivatives are more commonly used. Derivatives can estimate Chl-a concentration, and research suggests they can detect and possibly quantify PC. Derivative algorithms, however, need to be standardized in order to evaluate the reproducibility of parameterizations between lakes. A strategy for producing useful estimates of microcystins from cyanobacterial biomass is described, provided cyanotoxin variability is addressed.

Cyanotoxins in inland lakes of the United States: Occurrence and potential recreational health risks in the EPA National Lakes Assessment 2007.

A large nation-wide survey of cyanotoxins (1161 lakes) in the United States (U.S.) was conducted during the EPA National Lakes Assessment 2007. Cyanotoxin data were compared with cyanobacteria abundance- and chlorophyll-based World Health Organization (WHO) thresholds and mouse toxicity data to evaluate potential recreational risks. Cylindrospermopsins, microcystins, and saxitoxins were detected (ELISA) in 4.0, 32, and 7.7% of samples with mean concentrations of 0.56, 3.0, and 0.061µg/L, respectively (detections only). Co-occurrence of the three cyanotoxin classes was rare (0.32%) when at least one toxin was detected. Cyanobacteria were present and dominant in 98 and 76% of samples, respectively. Potential anatoxin-, cylindrospermopsin-, microcystin-, and saxitoxin-producing cyanobacteria occurred in 81, 67, 95, and 79% of samples, respectively. Anatoxin-a and nodularin-R were detected (LC/MS/MS) in 15 and 3.7% samples (n=27). The WHO moderate and high risk thresholds for microcystins, cyanobacteria abundance, and total chlorophyll were exceeded in 1.1, 27, and 44% of samples, respectively. Complete agreement by all three WHO microcystin metrics occurred in 27% of samples. This suggests that WHO microcystin metrics based on total chlorophyll and cyanobacterial abundance can overestimate microcystin risk when compared to WHO microcystin thresholds. The lack of parity among the WHO thresholds was expected since chlorophyll is common amongst all phytoplankton and not all cyanobacteria produce microcystins.

Elucidating drivers of oral epithelial dysplasia formation and malignant transformation to cancer using RNAseq.

Oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) is a prevalent cancer with poor prognosis. Most OSCC progresses via a non-malignant stage called dysplasia. Effective treatment of dysplasia prior to potential malignant transformation is an unmet clinical need. To identify markers of early disease, we performed RNA sequencing of 19 matched HPV negative patient trios: normal oral mucosa, dysplasia and associated OSCC. We performed differential gene expression, principal component and correlated gene network analysis using these data. We found differences in the immune cell signatures present at different disease stages and were able to distinguish early events in pathogenesis, such as upregulation of many HOX genes, from later events, such as down-regulation of adherens junctions. We herein highlight novel coding and non-coding candidates for involvement in oral dysplasia development and malignant transformation, and speculate on how our findings may guide further translational research into the treatment of oral dysplasia.

Environmental factors influencing microcystin distribution and concentration in the Midwestern United States.

During May-September 2000-2001, physicochemical data were collected from 241 lakes in Missouri, Iowa, northeastern Kansas, and southern Minnesota U.S.A., to determine the environmental variables associated with high concentrations of the cyanobacterial hepatotoxin microcystin (MC). The study region represents a south-north latitudinal gradient in increasing trophic status, with total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) values ranging between 2-995 and 90-15870 microg/L, respectively. Particulate MC values, measured by ELISA, ranged from undetectable to 4500 ng/L and increased with increasing latitude. Despite latitudinal trends, environmental variables explained < 50% of the variation in MC values. Inspection of MC-TN and MC-Secchi bivariate plots revealed distinctly nonlinear trends, suggesting optima for maximum MC values. Nonlinear interval maxima regression indicated that MC-TN maxima were characterized by a unimodal curve, with maximal (> 2000 ng/L) MC values occurring between 1500 and 4000 microg/L TN. Above 8000 microg/L TN all MC values were < 150 ng/L. MC-Secchi maxima were characterized by exponential decline, with maximal MC values occurring at Secchi depths < 2.5 m. The development of empirical relationships between environmental variables and MC values is critical to effective lake management and minimization of human health risks associated with the toxin. This study indicates MC values are linked to the physicochemical environment; however, the relationships are not traditional linear models.

A paired, double-blind, randomized comparison of a moisturizing durable barrier cream to 10% glycerine cream in the prophylactic management of postmastectomy irradiation skin care: trans Tasman Radiation Oncology Group (TROG) 04.01.

PURPOSE: A previous, unblinded study demonstrated that an alcohol-free barrier film containing an acrylate terpolymer (ATP) was effective in reducing skin reactions compared with a 10% glycerine cream (sorbolene). The different appearances of these products precluded a blinded comparison. To test the acrylate terpolymer principle in a double-blinded manner required the use of an alternative cream formulation, a moisturizing durable barrier cream (MDBC); the study was conducted by the Trans Tasman Radiation Oncology Group (TROG) as protocol 04.01. METHODS AND MATERIALS: A total of 333 patients were randomized; 1 patient was ineligible and 14 patients withdrew or had less than 7 weeks' observations, leaving 318 for analysis. The chest wall was divided into medial and lateral compartments, and patients were randomized to have MDBC applied daily to the medial or lateral compartment and sorbolene to the other compartment. Weekly observations, photographs, and symptom scores (pain and pruritus) were collected to week 12 or resolution of skin reactions if earlier. Skin dose was confirmed by centrally calibrated thermoluminescent dosimeters. RESULTS: Rates of medial and lateral compartment Common Toxicity Criteria (CTC), version 3, greater than or equal to grade 3 skin reactions were 23% and 41%, but rates by skin care product were identical at 32%. There was no significant difference between MDBC and sorbolene in the primary endpoint of peak skin reactions or secondary endpoints of area-under-the-curve skin reaction scores. CONCLUSIONS: The MDBC did not reduce the peak skin reaction compared to sorbolene. It is possible that this is related to the difference in the formulation of the cream compared with the film formulation. Skin dosimetry verification and double blinding are essential for radiation skin care comparative studies.