RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Estimating the prognosis of patients with pneumatosis intestinalis (PI) and porto-mesenteric venous gas (PMVG) can be challenging. The purpose of this study was to refine prognostication to improve decision making in daily clinical routine. METHODS: A total of 290 patients with confirmed PI were included in the final analysis. The presence of PMVG and mortality (90d follow-up) were evaluated with regard to the influence of possible risk factors. Furthermore, a linear estimation model was devised combining significant parameters to calculate accuracies for predicting death in patients undergoing surgery by means of a defined operation point (ROC-analysis). RESULTS: Overall, 90d mortality was 55.2% (160/290). In patients with PI only, mortality was 46.5% (78/168) and increased significantly to 67.2% (82/122) in combination with PMVG (median survival: PI: 58d vs. PI and PMVG: 41d; p < 0.001). In the entire patient group, 53.5% (155/290) were treated surgically with a 90d mortality of 58.8% (91/155) in this latter group, while 90d mortality was 51.1% (69/135) in patients treated conservatively. In the patients who survived > 90d treated conservatively (24.9% of the entire collective; 72/290) PMVG/PI was defined as "benign"/reversible. PMVG, COPD, sepsis and a low platelet count were found to correlate with a worse prognosis helping to identify patients who might not profit from surgery, in this context our calculation model reaches accuracies of 97% specificity, 20% sensitivity, 90% PPV and 45% NPV. CONCLUSION: Although PI is associated with high morbidity and mortality, "benign causes" are common. However, in concomitant PMVG, mortality rates increase significantly. Our mathematical model could serve as a decision support tool to identify patients who are least likely to benefit from surgery, and to potentially reduce overtreatment in this subset of patients.