Ageing threatens sustainability of smallholder farming in China.

Rapid demographic ageing substantially affects socioeconomic development1-4 and presents considerable challenges for food security and agricultural sustainability5-8, which have so far not been well understood. Here, by using data from more than 15,000 rural households with crops but no livestock across China, we show that rural population ageing reduced farm size by 4% through transferring cropland ownership and land abandonment (approximately 4 million hectares) in 2019, taking the population age structure in 1990 as a benchmark. These changes led to a reduction of agricultural inputs, including chemical fertilizers, manure and machinery, which decreased agricultural output and labour productivity by 5% and 4%, respectively, further lowering farmers' income by 15%. Meanwhile, fertilizer loss increased by 3%, resulting in higher pollutant emissions to the environment. In new farming models, such as cooperative farming, farms tend to be larger and operated by younger farmers, who have a higher average education level, hence improving agricultural management. By encouraging the transition to new farming models, the negative consequences of ageing can be reversed. Agricultural input, farm size and farmer's income would grow by approximately 14%, 20% and 26%, respectively, and fertilizer loss would reduce by 4% in 2100 compared with that in 2020. This suggests that management of rural ageing will contribute to a comprehensive transformation of smallholder farming to sustainable agriculture in China.

Cost-effective mitigation of nitrogen pollution from global croplands.

Cropland is a main source of global nitrogen pollution1,2. Mitigating nitrogen pollution from global croplands is a grand challenge because of the nature of non-point-source pollution from millions of farms and the constraints to implementing pollution-reduction measures, such as lack of financial resources and limited nitrogen-management knowledge of farmers3. Here we synthesize 1,521 field observations worldwide and identify 11 key measures that can reduce nitrogen losses from croplands to air and water by 30-70%, while increasing crop yield and nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) by 10-30% and 10-80%, respectively. Overall, adoption of this package of measures on global croplands would allow the production of 17 ± 3 Tg (1012 g) more crop nitrogen (20% increase) with 22 ± 4 Tg less nitrogen fertilizer used (21% reduction) and 26 ± 5 Tg less nitrogen pollution (32% reduction) to the environment for the considered base year of 2015. These changes could gain a global societal benefit of 476 ± 123 billion US dollars (USD) for food supply, human health, ecosystems and climate, with net mitigation costs of only 19 ± 5 billion USD, of which 15 ± 4 billion USD fertilizer saving offsets 44% of the gross mitigation cost. To mitigate nitrogen pollution from croplands in the future, innovative policies such as a nitrogen credit system (NCS) could be implemented to select, incentivize and, where necessary, subsidize the adoption of these measures.

Unequal Health Burden from Air Pollution among Minors in Education.

Air pollution exposure has been linked to a variety of adverse health outcomes among minors; yet little is known about the associated health inequity across regions and schools. Here, we assessed the unequal health burden linked to particulate matter exposure among minors of 10,358 schools in China through 12,439,232 individual health records. Our findings highlight the persistent health risks with superlinear concentration-response patterns and following inverted U-shaped risk trends, that each 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 exposure resulted in 4.1% (3.9-4.2%) additional school absenteeism risk. Compared to urban well-built schools, minors in rural poor-built schools experienced significantly higher exposure and slower rate of risk reduction and had over 80.0% less medical resources while bearing 145.2% of the health burden. Disparities in pollution exposure, built environment, and resource allocation are intertwined to shape the health inequity pattern, especially between rural and urban schools. These findings underscore the urgency for persistent efforts aimed at disadvantaged schools to reduce pollution exposure and equitably distribute social resources, ultimately securing an impartial health-centered education for minors.

Atmospheric Nitrogen Pollution Control Benefits the Coastal Environment.

Nitrogen is an essential nutrient and a major limiting element for the ocean ecosystem. Since the preindustrial era, substantial amounts of nitrogen from terrestrial sources have entered the ocean via rivers, groundwater, and atmospheric deposition. China serves as a key hub in the global nitrogen cycle, but the pathways, sources, and potential mitigation strategies for land-ocean nitrogen transport are unclear. By combining the CHANS, WRF-Chem, and WNF models, we estimated that 8 million tonnes (Tg) of nitrogen was transferred into the ocean in 2017 in China, with atmospheric deposition contributing 1/3. About half variation of the offshore chlorophyll concentration was explained by atmospheric deposition. The Bohai Sea was the hot spot of nitrogen input, estimated at 214 kg N ha-1, while other areas were around 25-51 kg N ha-1. The largest contributors are agricultural systems (4 Tg, 55%), followed by domestic sewage (2 Tg, 21%). Abatement measures could reduce nitrogen export to the ocean by 43%, and mitigating ammonia and nitrogen oxide emissions accounts for 33% of this reduction, highlighting the importance of addressing air pollution in resolving ocean pollution. The cost-benefit analysis suggests the priority of nitrogen reduction in cropland and transport systems for the ocean environment.

Temporal Trends of Legacy and Emerging PFASs from 2011 to 2021 in Agricultural Soils of Eastern China: Impacts of the Stockholm Convention.

The spatial variation and temporal trends of legacy and emerging per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) from 2011 to 2021 in agricultural soils of Eastern China, which is one of the largest PFAS production and consumption regions in the world, were evaluated. We found that PFOS concentration decreased by 28.2% during this period. Given that agricultural soils are sinks for persistent organic pollutants (POPs), our results suggest that the implementation of the Stockholm Convention and its indirect effects, combined with a voluntary phaseout, are effective for controlling PFOS pollution in agricultural soils in China. In addition, our results show that 19 out of 28 PFASs were detected in >40% of the samples, with concentrations being 17.6-1950 pg/g with a median of 373 pg/g. Further, legacy PFASs were major components, accounting for 63.8% of total PFASs. Based on the source appointment of PFASs via the Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) model, the contribution ratio of consumer product industries has steadily increased from 6.10 to 26.2%, while both legacy and novel fluoropolymer industries have declined from 24.2 to 1.50 and 19.1 to 5.40%, further confirming the effectiveness of the Convention.

Ammonia Emissions from Croplands Decrease with Farm Size in China.

Farm size affects nitrogen fertilizer input and agricultural practices, which are key determinants of ammonia (NH3) emissions from croplands. However, the degree to which NH3 emissions are associated with changes in farm size is not well understood yet despite its crucial role in achieving agricultural sustainability in China, where agricultural production is still dominated by smallholder farms. Here we provide a first analysis of the relationship between farm size and NH3 emissions based on 863 000 surveys conducted in 2017 across China. Results show that NH3 emissions (kg ha-1) on average decrease by 0.07% for each 1% increase in average farm size. This change occurs mainly due to a reduction in nitrogen fertilizer use and the introduction of more efficient fertilization practices. The largest reduction in NH3 emissions is found in maize, with less pronounced changes in rice cultivation, and none for wheat production. Overall lower NH3 emissions factors can be observed in the north of China with increasing farm size, especially in the northeast, the opposite pattern was found in the south. National total NH3 emissions could be approximately halved (1.5 Tg) in a scenario favoring a conversion to large-scale farming systems. This substantial reduction potential highlights the potential of such a transition to reduce NH3 emissions, including benefits from a socioeconomic point of view as well as for improving air quality.

Dry Climate Aggravates Riverine Nitrogen Pollution in Australia by Water Volume Reduction.

Freshwater is a scarce resource, and maintaining water quality is of great importance in dryland Australia. How water quality is affected by the dry climate and socio-economic influences in Australia remains widely unknown. Here, we find that agriculture activity dominates reactive nitrogen (Nr) emissions to water bodies. Such emissions not only contribute to deteriorating water quality in Southeastern Australia but also harm marine ecosystems, including the Great Barrier Reef, a World Natural Heritage site. A dry and warm climate reduces the share of Nr emitted directly to water bodies; however, it increases the Nr concentration in surface water due to reduced water volume, leading to a 3-fold higher water Nr concentration compared to major rivers globally, e.g., in the US or China. Business-as-usual socioeconomic development would increase the total Nr emitted to surface water by at least 43% by 2050, while effective mitigation measures could reduce N runoff by about 27%. Advanced agricultural management strategies should be considered to reduce future environmental pressures due to N runoff in Australia.

Policy distortions, farm size, and the overuse of agricultural chemicals in China.

Understanding the reasons for overuse of agricultural chemicals is critical to the sustainable development of Chinese agriculture. Using a nationally representative rural household survey from China, we found that farm size is a strong factor that affects the use intensity of agricultural chemicals across farms in China. Statistically, a 1% increase in farm size is associated with a 0.3% and 0.5% decrease in fertilizer and pesticide use per hectare (P < 0.001), respectively, and an almost 1% increase in agricultural labor productivity, while it only leads to a statistically insignificant 0.02% decrease in crop yields. The same pattern was also found using other independently collected data sources from China and an international panel analysis of 74 countries from the 1960s to the 2000s. While economic growth has been associated with increasing farm size in many other countries, in China this relationship has been distorted by land and migration policies, leading to the persistence of small farm size in China. Removing these distortions would decrease agricultural chemical use by 30-50% and the environmental impact of those chemicals by 50% while doubling the total income of all farmers including those who move to urban areas. Removing policy distortions is also likely to complement other remedies to the overuse problem, such as easing farmer's access to modern technologies and knowledge, and improving environmental regulation and enforcement.

Fertilizer overuse in Chinese smallholders due to lack of fixed inputs.

Fertilizer overuse by smallholder farmers is widespread in China, leading to significant financial losses and threatening the environment. Understanding what mechanism behind this is critical for agricultural and environmental sustainability. By using a fixed effect panel model of over 20,000 rural households in China from 1995 to 2016, we found that the low ratio of fixed inputs such as machinery and knowledge to total inputs is the key factor leading to over-fertilization in smallholder farms. Low fixed input can result in or interact with nutrient-unbalanced fertilization, low agricultural income ratio and more cash crops that further aggravate fertilizer overuse. Smallholders lack fixed inputs, then compensate by over-applying fertilizer to attempt to achieve their yield goals. Thus, improving fixed input via increasing the average farm size to 3.8 ha or advanced service rental could save not only 45% fertilizers but also increase 16% agricultural net profit, benefiting agricultural and environmental sustainability.

Plastic pollution in croplands threatens long-term food security.

Plastic pollution is a global concern given its prevalence in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Studies have been conducted on the distribution and impact of plastic pollution in marine ecosystems, but little is known on terrestrial ecosystems. Plastic mulch has been widely used to increase crop yields worldwide, yet the impact of plastic residues in cropland soils to soil health and crop production in the long term remained unclear. In this paper, using a global meta-analysis, we found that the use of plastic mulch can indeed increase crop yields on average by 25%-42% in the immediate season due to the increase of soil temperature (+8%) and moisture (+17%). However, the unabated accumulation of film residues in the field negatively impacts its physicochemical properties linked to healthy soil and threatens food production in the long term. It has multiple negative impacts on plant growth including crop yield (at the mean rate of -3% for every additional 100 kg/ha of film residue), plant height (-2%) and root weight (-5%), and soil properties including soil water evaporation capacity (-2%), soil water infiltration rate (-8%), soil organic matter (-0.8%) and soil available phosphorus (-5%) based on meta-regression. Using a nationwide field survey of China, the largest user of plastic mulch worldwide, we found that plastic residue accumulation in cropland soils has reached 550,800 tonnes, with an estimated 6%-10% reduction in cotton yield in some polluted sites based on current level of plastic residue content. Immediate actions should be taken to ensure the recovery of plastic film mulch and limit further increase in film residue loading to maintain the sustainability of these croplands.

Concurrent and lagged effects of spring greening on seasonal carbon gain and water loss across the Northern Hemisphere.

Spring greening has been widely observed across the Northern Hemisphere (NH) using a remotely sensed vegetation index (e.g., the normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI). However, there is still a debate on the ecological effects of spring greening on seasonal carbon and water budgets. This study jointly investigated the concurrent and lagged effects of spring greening on carbon gain (gross primary productivity, GPP) and water loss (evapotranspiration, ET) in the summer-active ecosystems at mid and high latitudes of NH using remote sensing and multimodel ensemble data during 1982-2013. The results showed that the collective promotion of spring greening to concurrent GPP and ET is widespread despite variations in magnitude and significance. Both beneficial and adverse lagged effects of spring greening on summer GPP commonly appear with an obvious spatial heterogeneity and difference among climate-plant types. However, the expected significant suppression of spring greening to summer GPP was rarely observed even in the areas where spring ET was significantly promoted by spring greening. Nevertheless, when drought was taken into account, the response patterns of spring water use to spring greening varied to some extent, and the adverse lagged effect of spring greening to summer GPP appeared or strengthened in some regions, especially during the years with dry summer. Given the predicted warming of the climate and more frequent climatic extremes, the adverse effect of spring greening should be given more attention.

Plant diversity improves the effluent quality and stability of floating constructed wetlands under increased ammonium/nitrate ratio in influent.

The major targets of constructed wetlands (CWs) during wastewater treatment include achieving high-quality effluent and maintaining stable effluent quality. Plant species diversity can increase nitrogen (N) removal efficiency and improve effluent quality by decreasing the effluent N concentrations, including nitrate (NO3--N), ammonium (NH4+-N) and total inorganic nitrogen (TIN) concentrations in CWs. However, the effect of plant diversity on the stability of effluent quality in response to perturbation in the form of an increased NH4+/NO3- ratio in influent has not been studied. This study conducted a microcosm experiment and assembled four plant species richness levels (1, 2, 3 and 4) and 15 species compositions by using 90 simulated CW microcosms to investigate the effect of plant diversity on the effluent N concentrations and their stability with an increase in the influent NH4+/NO3- ratio from 0:100 to 33:67 in the later stage of the experiment. The results showed that (1) plant species richness maintained a positive effect on effluent quality under an increased influent NH4+/NO3- ratio; (2) high species richness enhanced the stability of effluent water quality; (3) the presence of Phragmites australis in the community decreased the effluent TIN concentration and improved its stability under perturbation; and (4) the presence of Typha latifolia had a positive effect on N removal efficiency under perturbation. The establishment of communities with high plant species richness and proper species (such as P. australis) could simultaneously improve the effluent quality and stability in CWs for treating wastewater with increased NH4+/NO3- ratio.

Toward a Generic Analytical Framework for Sustainable Nitrogen Management: Application for China.

Managing reactive nitrogen (Nr) to achieve a sustainable balance between production of food, feed and fiber, and environmental protection is a grand challenge in the context of an increasingly affluent society. Here, we propose a novel framework for national nitrogen (N) assessments enabling a more consistent comparison of the uses, losses and impacts of Nr between countries, and improvement of Nr management for sustainable development at national and regional scales. This framework includes four key components: national scale N budgets, validation of N fluxes, cost-benefit analysis and Nr management strategies. We identify four critical factors for Nr management to achieve the sustainable development goals: N use efficiency (NUE), Nr recycling ratio (e.g., ratio of livestock excretion applied to cropland), human dietary patterns and food waste ratio. This framework was partly adopted from the European Nitrogen Assessment and now is successfully applied to China, where it contributed to trigger policy interventions toward improvements for future sustainable use of Nr. We demonstrate how other countries can also benefit from the application our framework, in order to include sustainable Nr management under future challenges of growing population, hence contributing to the achievement of some key sustainable development goals (SDGs).

Chinese cropping systems are a net source of greenhouse gases despite soil carbon sequestration.

Soil carbon sequestration is being considered as a potential pathway to mitigate climate change. Cropland soils could provide a sink for carbon that can be modified by farming practices; however, they can also act as a source of greenhouse gases (GHG), including not only nitrous oxide (N2 O) and methane (CH4 ), but also the upstream carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emissions associated with agronomic management. These latter emissions are also sometimes termed "hidden" or "embedded" CO2 . In this paper, we estimated the net GHG balance for Chinese cropping systems by considering the balance of soil carbon sequestration, N2 O and CH4 emissions, and the upstream CO2 emissions of agronomic management from a life cycle perspective during 2000-2017. Results showed that although soil organic carbon (SOC) increased by 23.2 ± 8.6 Tg C per year, the soil N2 O and CH4 emissions plus upstream CO2 emissions arising from agronomic management added 269.5 ± 21.1 Tg C-eq per year to the atmosphere. These findings demonstrate that Chinese cropping systems are a net source of GHG emissions and that total GHG emissions are about 12 times larger than carbon uptake by soil sequestration. There were large variations between different cropping systems in the net GHG balance ranging from 328 to 7,567 kg C-eq ha-1  year-1 , but all systems act as a net GHG source to the atmosphere. The main sources of total GHG emissions are nitrogen fertilization (emissions during production and application), power use for irrigation, and soil N2 O and CH4 emissions. Optimizing agronomic management practices, especially fertilization, irrigation, plastic mulching, and crop residues to reduce total GHG emissions from the whole chain is urgently required in order to develop a low-carbon future for Chinese crop production.

Integrated reactive nitrogen budgets and future trends in China.

Reactive nitrogen (Nr) plays a central role in food production, and at the same time it can be an important pollutant with substantial effects on air and water quality, biological diversity, and human health. China now creates far more Nr than any other country. We developed a budget for Nr in China in 1980 and 2010, in which we evaluated the natural and anthropogenic creation of Nr, losses of Nr, and transfers among 14 subsystems within China. Our analyses demonstrated that a tripling of anthropogenic Nr creation was associated with an even more rapid increase in Nr fluxes to the atmosphere and hydrosphere, contributing to intense and increasing threats to human health, the sustainability of croplands, and the environment of China and its environs. Under a business as usual scenario, anthropogenic Nr creation in 2050 would more than double compared with 2010 levels, whereas a scenario that combined reasonable changes in diet, N use efficiency, and N recycling could reduce N losses and anthropogenic Nr creation in 2050 to 52% and 64% of 2010 levels, respectively. Achieving reductions in Nr creation (while simultaneously increasing food production and offsetting imports of animal feed) will require much more in addition to good science, but it is useful to know that there are pathways by which both food security and health/environmental protection could be enhanced simultaneously.

Ammonia Emissions May Be Substantially Underestimated in China.

China is a global hotspot of atmospheric ammonia (NH3) emissions and, as a consequence, very high nitrogen (N) deposition levels are documented. However, previous estimates of total NH3 emissions in China were much lower than inference from observed deposition values would suggest, highlighting the need for further investigation. Here, we reevaluated NH3 emissions based on a mass balance approach, validated by N deposition monitoring and satellite observations, for China for the period of 2000 to 2015. Total NH3 emissions in China increased from 12.1 ± 0.8 Tg N yr-1 in 2000 to 15.6 ± 0.9 Tg N yr-1 in 2015 at an annual rate of 1.9%, which is approximately 40% higher than existing studies suggested. This difference is mainly due to more emission sources now having been included and NH3 emission rates from mineral fertilizer application and livestock having been underestimated previously. Our estimated NH3 emission levels are consistent with the measured deposition of NHx (including NH4+ and NH3) on land (11-14 Tg N yr-1) and the substantial increases in NH3 concentrations observed by satellite measurements over China. These findings substantially improve our understanding on NH3 emissions, implying that future air pollution control strategies have to consider the potentials of reducing NH3 emission in China.

Role of management strategies and environmental factors in determining the emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds from urban greenspaces.

Biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions from urban greenspace have recently become a global concern. To identify key factors affecting the dynamics of urban BVOC emissions, we built an estimation model and utilized the city of Hangzhou in southeastern China as an example. A series of single-factor scenarios were first developed, and then nine multifactor scenarios using a combination of different single-factor scenarios were built to quantify the effects of environmental changes and urban management strategies on urban BVOC emissions. Results of our model simulations showed that (1) annual total BVOC emissions from the metropolitan area of Hangzhou were 4.7×10(8) g of C in 2010 and were predicted to be 1.2-3.2 Gg of C (1 Gg=10(9) g) in our various scenarios in 2050, (2) urban management played a more important role in determining future urban BVOC emissions than environmental changes, and (3) a high ecosystem service value (e.g., lowest BVOC/leaf mass ratio) could be achieved through positive coping in confronting environmental changes and adopting proactive urban management strategies on a local scale, that is, to moderately increase tree density while restricting excessive greenspace expansion and optimizing the species composition of existing and newly planted trees.

Mitigation potential of methane emissions in China's livestock sector can reach one-third by 2030 at low cost.

The mitigation of methane (CH4) emissions from livestock production is crucial to China's carbon neutrality. Here we established a high-spatiotemporal-resolution dataset of the country's livestock CH4 emissions from 1990 to 2020 using four large-scale national livestock greenhouse gas inventory surveys. We estimate CH4 emissions to be 14.1 ± 2.0 Mt in 2020 and to increase by 13% until 2030 despite CH4 intensity per kg animal protein having decreased by 55% in the past 30 years. Approximately half of the emissions come from 13% of all Chinese counties. The technical CH4 mitigation potential is projected to be 36 ± 8% (4.4-6.9 Mt CH4) in 2030, and reducing food loss and waste could mitigate an additional 1.6 Mt of CH4. Overall, most CH4 mitigation could be achieved by increasing animal productivity and coverage of lagoon storage at carbon prices below US$100 tCO2e-1, being more cost-effective than livestock nitrous oxide mitigation in China.