Using neural networks to support high-quality evidence mapping.

BACKGROUND: The Living Evidence Map Project at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NIPH) gives an updated overview of research results and publications. As part of NIPH's mandate to inform evidence-based infection prevention, control and treatment, a large group of experts are continously monitoring, assessing, coding and summarising new COVID-19 publications. Screening tools, coding practice and workflow are incrementally improved, but remain largely manual. RESULTS: This paper describes how deep learning methods have been employed to learn classification and coding from the steadily growing NIPH COVID-19 dashboard data, so as to aid manual classification, screening and preprocessing of the rapidly growing influx of new papers on the subject. Our main objective is to make manual screening scalable through semi-automation, while ensuring high-quality Evidence Map content. CONCLUSIONS: We report early results on classifying publication topic and type from titles and abstracts, showing that even simple neural network architectures and text representations can yield acceptable performance.

Femoral nerve blocks for the treatment of acute pre-hospital pain: A systematic review with meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Pain management is one of the most important interventions in the emergency medical services. The femoral nerve block (FNB) is, among other things, indicated for pre- and post-operative pain management for patients with femoral fractures but its role in the pre-hospital setting has not been determined. The aim of this review was to assess the effect and safety of the FNB in comparison to other forms of analgesia (or no treatment) for managing acute lower extremity pain in adult patients in the pre-hospital setting. METHODS: A systematic review (PROSPERO registration (CRD42018114399)) was conducted. The Cochrane and GRADE methods were used to assess outcomes. Two authors independently reviewed each study for eligibility, extracted the data and performed risk of bias assessments. RESULTS: Four studies with a total of 252 patients were included. Two RCTs (114 patients) showed that FNB may reduce pain more effectively than metamizole (mean difference 32 mm on a 100 mm VAS (95% CI 24 to 40)). One RCT (48 patients) compared the FNB with lidocaine and magnesium sulphate to FNB with lidocaine alone and was only included here for information regarding adverse effects. One case series included 90 patients. Few adverse events were reported in the included studies. The certainty of evidence was very low. We found no studies comparing FNB to inhaled analgesics, opioids or ketamine. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence regarding the effectiveness and adverse effects of pre-hospital FNB is limited. Studies comparing pre-hospital FNB to inhaled analgesics, opioids or ketamine are lacking.

Targeted mass media interventions promoting healthy behaviours to reduce risk of non-communicable diseases in adult, ethnic minorities.

BACKGROUND: Physical activity, a balanced diet, avoidance of tobacco exposure, and limited alcohol consumption may reduce morbidity and mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Mass media interventions are commonly used to encourage healthier behaviours in population groups. It is unclear whether targeted mass media interventions for ethnic minority groups are more or less effective in changing behaviours than those developed for the general population. OBJECTIVES: To determine the effects of mass media interventions targeting adult ethnic minorities with messages about physical activity, dietary patterns, tobacco use or alcohol consumption to reduce the risk of NCDs. SEARCH METHODS: We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL, ERIC, SweMed+, and ISI Web of Science until August 2016. We also searched for grey literature in OpenGrey, Grey Literature Report, Eldis, and two relevant websites until October 2016. The searches were not restricted by language. SELECTION CRITERIA: We searched for individual and cluster-randomised controlled trials, controlled before-and-after studies (CBA) and interrupted time series studies (ITS). Relevant interventions promoted healthier behaviours related to physical activity, dietary patterns, tobacco use or alcohol consumption; were disseminated via mass media channels; and targeted ethnic minority groups. The population of interest comprised adults (≥ 18 years) from ethnic minority groups in the focal countries. Primary outcomes included indicators of behavioural change, self-reported behavioural change and knowledge and attitudes towards change. Secondary outcomes were the use of health promotion services and costs related to the project. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two authors independently reviewed the references to identify studies for inclusion. We extracted data and assessed the risk of bias in all included studies. We did not pool the results due to heterogeneity in comparisons made, outcomes, and study designs. We describe the results narratively and present them in 'Summary of findings' tables. We judged the quality of the evidence using the GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation) methodology. MAIN RESULTS: Six studies met the inclusion criteria, including three RCTs, two cluster-RCTs and one ITS. All were conducted in the USA and comprised targeted mass media interventions for people of African descent (four studies), Spanish-language dominant Latino immigrants (one study), and Chinese immigrants (one study). The two latter studies offered the intervention in the participants' first language (Spanish, Cantonese, or Mandarin). Three interventions targeted towards women only, one pregnant women specifically. We judged all studies as being at unclear risk of bias in at least one domain and three studies as being at high risk of bias in at least one domain.We categorised the findings into three comparisons. The first comparison examined mass media interventions targeted at ethnic minorities versus an equivalent mass media intervention intended for the general population. The one study in this category (255 participants of African decent) found little or no difference in effect on self-reported behavioural change for smoking and only small differences in attitudes to change between participants who were given a culturally specific smoking cessation booklet versus a booklet intended for the general population. We are uncertain about the effect estimates, as assessed by the GRADE methodology (very low quality evidence of effect). No study provided data for indicators of behavioural change or adverse effects.The second comparison assessed targeted mass media interventions versus no intervention. One study (154 participants of African decent) reported effects for our primary outcomes. Participants in the intervention group had access to 12 one-hour live programmes on cable TV and received print material over three months regarding nutrition and physical activity to improve health and weight control. Change in body mass index (BMI) was comparable between groups 12 months after the baseline (low quality evidence). Scores on a food habits (fat behaviours) and total leisure activity scores changed favourably for the intervention group (very low quality evidence). Two other studies exposed entire populations in geographical areas to radio advertisements targeted towards African American communities. Authors presented effects on two of our secondary outcomes, use of health promotion services and project costs. The campaign message was to call smoking quit lines. The outcome was the number of calls received. After one year, one study reported 18 calls per estimated 10,000 targeted smokers from the intervention communities (estimated target population 310,500 persons), compared to 0.2 calls per estimated 10,000 targeted smokers from the control communities (estimated target population 331,400 persons) (moderate quality evidence). The ITS study also reported an increase in the number of calls from the target population during campaigns (low quality evidence). The proportion of African American callers increased in both studies (low to very low quality evidence). No study provided data on knowledge and attitudes for change and adverse effects. Information on costs were sparse.The third comparison assessed targeted mass media interventions versus a mass media intervention plus personalised content. Findings are based on three studies (1361 participants). Participants in these comparison groups received personal feedback. Two of the studies recorded weight changes over time. Neither found significant differences between the groups (low quality evidence). Evidence on behavioural changes, and knowledge and attitudes typically found some effects in favour of receiving personalised content or no significant differences between groups (very low quality evidence). No study provided data on adverse effects. Information on costs were sparse. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The available evidence is inadequate for understanding whether mass media interventions targeted toward ethnic minority populations are more effective in changing health behaviours than mass media interventions intended for the population at large. When compared to no intervention, a targeted mass media intervention may increase the number of calls to smoking quit line, but the effect on health behaviours is unclear. These studies could not distinguish the impact of different components, for instance the effect of hearing a message regarding behavioural change, the cultural adaptation to the ethnic minority group, or increase reach to the target group through more appropriate mass media channels. New studies should explore targeted interventions for ethnic minorities with a first language other than the dominant language in their resident country, as well as directly compare targeted versus general population mass media interventions.

Effectiveness of a multidisciplinary team approach to the prevention of readmission for acute glycaemic events.

AIMS: To describe the effect of a combined diabetes specialist/mental health team approach to prevent readmissions for acute glycaemic events among patients with diabetes. METHODS: Consecutive patients with diabetes, readmitted to a single hospital for an acute glycaemic condition, were offered one or more diabetes (including assessment, education, medication, technology use and intensive support) and mental health (including assessment, training and therapies) interventions. The pilot service took place over 11 months, with the preceding 24 months and subsequent 8 months serving as control periods. RESULTS: Of the 58 patients admitted, 50 had Type 1 diabetes and were from within the hospital catchment area, and were discharged home. Of these, 32 (64%) had a pre-existing mental health issue and 14 (28%) had a complex social situation. In all, 96% of patients were met as an inpatient by a team member, and 94% accepted at least one intervention. The mean ±sd number of admissions per patient/month dropped from 0.12 ± 0.10 to 0.05 ± 0.10 (P < 0.001) during the intervention, increasing, once the intervention ended, to 0.16 ± 0.36 (P = 0.002). The mean ± sd length of stay similarly decreased and increased (0.6 ± 0.9 to 0.2 ± 0.7 days; P < 0.001 to 0.006) to 0.6 ± 1.4 days (P = 0.003) per patient/month) across the three periods, as did the mean ±sd tariff paid per patient/month (£258.0 ± 374.0 vs £92.1 ± 245.0 vs £287.3 ± 563.8; P < 0.001 and P = 0.018, respectively). The mean ± sd HbA1c level dropped from 99 ± 22 to 92 ± 24 mmol/mol (11.2 ± 4.2% vs 10.6 ± 4.3%; P = 0.014) but did not increase after the intervention [89 ± 26 mmol/mol (10.4 ± 4.5%)]. CONCLUSIONS: The cost and long-term risks of hospitalization among patients with Type 1 diabetes and recurrent admissions can be reduced by a combined specialist diabetes/mental health team approach.

A systematic review of hospital accreditation: the challenges of measuring complex intervention effects.

BACKGROUND: The increased international focus on improving patient outcomes, safety and quality of care has led stakeholders, policy makers and healthcare provider organizations to adopt standardized processes for evaluating healthcare organizations. Accreditation and certification have been proposed as interventions to support patient safety and high quality healthcare. Guidelines recommend accreditation but are cautious about the evidence, judged as inconclusive. The push for accreditation continues despite sparse evidence to support its efficiency or effectiveness. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and The Cochrane Library using Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) indexes and keyword searches in any language. Studies were assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool and AMSTAR framework. 915 abstracts were screened and 20 papers were reviewed in full in January 2013. Inclusion criteria included studies addressing the effect of hospital accreditation and certification using systematic reviews, randomized controlled trials, observational studies with a control group, or interrupted time series. Outcomes included both clinical outcomes and process measures. An updated literature search in July 2014 identified no new studies. RESULTS: The literature review uncovered three systematic reviews and one randomized controlled trial. The lone study assessed the effects of accreditation on hospital outcomes and reported inconsistent results. Excluded studies were reviewed and their findings summarized. CONCLUSION: Accreditation continues to grow internationally but due to scant evidence, no conclusions could be reached to support its effectiveness. Our review did not find evidence to support accreditation and certification of hospitals being linked to measurable changes in quality of care as measured by quality metrics and standards. Most studies did not report intervention context, implementation, or cost. This might reflect the challenges in assessing complex, heterogeneous interventions such as accreditation and certification. It is also may be magnified by the impact of how accreditation is managed and executed, and the varied financial and organizational healthcare constraints. The strategies hospitals should impelment to improve patient safety and organizational outcomes related to accreditation and certification components remains unclear.

A case study of the organisation of research knowledge by systematic reviews within the mental health care field.

BACKGROUND: Our aim was to explore how systematic reviews of the effects of complex interventions within the field of organisation of mental health care organised research knowledge. METHODS: We looked up references included in 14 mental health care reviews in the database Epistemonikos to examine overlap between reviews. We classified topic concordance between study reports and reviews as similar, narrower, broader or other topic to indicate how well the research knowledge was organised. FINDINGS: We examined 182 comparisons between the theme of study reports and reviews. In 100 (55%) of the 182 comparisons, the review had a broader theme, 18 (10%) narrower, 34 (19%) similar and in 30 (16%), the review's theme was classified as 'other'. The content analysis indicated that there existed (inconsistent) overlapping of study reports between different topics. CONCLUSIONS: Within the field organisation of mental health care, there exists some unclear and inconsistent organisation of current knowledge. This may diminish the validity and reliability of systematic reviews. It is important that review authors take care in defining the review question precisely, conduct thorough literature searches, consider each study's hypothesis, disciplinary tradition and context, and if necessary, examine which other reviews have included a study in question.

Interventions aimed at increasing the level of physical activity by including organised follow-up: a systematic review of effect.

BACKGROUND: Organised follow-up is a common feature of several strategies at the primary health care level to promote health behaviour change, e.g. to increase physical activity. In Norway, municipal 'healthy living' centres run by health care personnel are established to offer counselling and organised follow-up of health behaviour change during a 12-week programme. We report the results of a systematic review commissioned by the Norwegian Directorate of Health concerning organised follow-up to improve physical activity. METHODS: We searched ten electronic databases up to June 2012, reference lists of included publications, and relevant journals. Study selection and quality risk of bias assessment were carried out independently. Data were synthesised narratively due to heterogeneity of measurements of physical activity. The GRADE approach was used to assess our confidence in the effect estimate for each outcome in each comparison. RESULTS: Fourteen randomised controlled trials from seven countries and with a total of 5,002 participants were included in the systematic review. All studies were carried out in primary care or community settings. The interventions comprised referral to supervised group physical activity (2 studies), referral to local resources with follow-up (6 studies), and self-organised physical activity with follow-up (6 studies). The narrative synthesis, comprising a total of 39 comparisons, indicated effects of self-organised physical activity with follow-up (compared to both advice and no treatment) and referral to local resources with follow-up (compared to advice) in some of the comparisons where we rated our confidence in the effect estimates as moderate. However, the results indicated no difference between intervention and control groups for the majority of comparisons. Follow-up in the studies was mainly short-term with the longest follow-up 9 months post-treatment. We rated our confidence in the effect estimates as low or very low in most comparisons, both for positive and neutral results. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this systematic review indicate considerable uncertainty concerning effects of organised follow-up during 10-14 weeks on physical activity. Major methodological problems concerning the measurement of physical activity are discussed. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Systematic review registration: PROSPERO CRD42011001598.

Accessible methods and tools to estimate chemical exposure in humans to support risk assessment: A systematic scoping review.

Exposure assessment is a crucial component of environmental health research, providing essential information on the potential risks associated with various chemicals. A systematic scoping review was conducted to acquire an overview of accessible human exposure assessment methods and computational tools to support and ultimately improve risk assessment. The systematic scoping review was performed in Sysrev, a web platform that introduces machine learning techniques into the review process aiming for increased accuracy and efficiency. Included publications were restricted to a publication date after the year 2000, where exposure methods were properly described. Exposure assessments methods were found to be used for a broad range of environmental chemicals including pesticides, metals, persistent chemicals, volatile organic compounds, and other chemical classes. Our results show that after the year 2000, for all the types of exposure routes, probabilistic analysis, and computational methods to calculate human exposure have increased. Sixty-three mathematical models and toolboxes were identified that have been developed in Europe, North America, and globally. However, only twelve occur frequently and their usefulness were associated with exposure route, chemical classes and input parameters used to estimate exposure. The outcome of the combined associations can function as a basis and/or guide for decision making for the selection of most appropriate method and tool to be used for environmental chemical human exposure assessments in Ontology-driven and artificial intelligence-based repeated dose toxicity testing of chemicals for next generation risk assessment (ONTOX) project and elsewhere. Finally, the choice of input parameters used in each mathematical model and toolbox shown by our analysis can contribute to the harmonization process of the exposure models and tools increasing the prospect for comparison between studies and consistency in the regulatory process in the future.

Recommendations for managing missing data, attrition and response shift in palliative and end-of-life care research: part of the MORECare research method guidance on statistical issues.

BACKGROUND: Statistical analysis in palliative and end-of-life care research can be problematic due to high levels of missing data, attrition and response shift as disease progresses. AIM: To develop recommendations about managing missing data, attrition and response shift in palliative and end-of-life care research data. DESIGN: We used the MORECare Transparent Expert Consultation approach to conduct a consultation workshop with experts in statistical methods in palliative and end-of-life care research. Following presentations and discussion, nominal group techniques were used to produce recommendations about attrition, missing data and response shift. These were rated online by experts and analysed using descriptive statistics for consensus and importance. RESULTS: In total, 20 participants attended the workshop and 19 recommendations were subsequently ranked. There was broad agreement across recommendations. The top five recommendations were as follows: A taxonomy should be devised to define types of attrition. Types and amount of missing data should be reported with details of imputation methods. The pattern of missing data should be investigated to inform the imputation approach. A statistical analysis plan should be pre-specified in the protocol. High rates of attrition should be assumed when planning studies and specifying analyses. The leading recommendation for response shift was for more research. CONCLUSIONS: When designing studies in palliative and end-of-life care, it is recommended that high rates of attrition should not be seen as indicative of poor design and that a clear statistical analysis plan is in place to account for missing data and attrition.

MORECare research methods guidance development: recommendations for ethical issues in palliative and end-of-life care research.

BACKGROUND: There is little guidance on the particular ethical concerns that research raises with a palliative care population. AIM: To present the process and outcomes of a workshop and consensus exercise on agreed best practice to accommodate ethical issues in research on palliative care. DESIGN: Consultation workshop using the MORECare Transparent Expert Consultation approach. Prior to workshops, participants were sent overviews of ethical issues in palliative care. Following the workshop, nominal group techniques were used to produce candidate recommendations. These were rated online by participating experts. Descriptive statistics were used to analyse agreement and consensus. Narrative comments were collated. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: Experts in ethical issues and palliative care research were invited to the Cicely Saunders Institute in London. They included senior researchers, service providers, commissioners, researchers, members of ethics committees and policy makers. RESULTS: The workshop comprised 28 participants. A total of 16 recommendations were developed. There was high agreement on the issue of research participation and high to moderate agreement on applications to research ethics committees. The recommendations on obtaining and maintaining consent from patients and families were the most contentious. Nine recommendations were refined on the basis of the comments from the online consultation. CONCLUSIONS: The culture surrounding palliative care research needs to change by fostering collaborative approaches between all those involved in the research process. Changes to the legal framework governing the research process are required to enhance the ethical conduct of research in palliative care. The recommendations are relevant to all areas of research involving vulnerable adults.

Use of Swedish smokeless tobacco during pregnancy: A systematic review of pregnancy and early life health risk.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Smokeless tobacco is a heterogeneous product group with diverse composition and prevalence globally. Tobacco use during pregnancy is concerning due to the risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes and effects on child health. Nicotine may mediate several of these effects. This systematic review measured health outcomes from Swedish smokeless tobacco (snus) use during pregnancy. METHOD: Literature search was conducted by an information specialist in May 2022. We included human studies of snus use during pregnancy compared with no tobacco use, assessed risk of bias, conducted a meta-analysis and assessed confidence in effect-estimates using Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE). RESULTS: We included 18 cohort studies (42 to 1 006 398 participants). Snus use during pregnancy probably (moderate confidence in risk estimates) increase the risk of neonatal apnea, adjusted odds ratio 95% confidence interval [aOR (95% CI)] 1.96 (1.30 to 2.96). Snus use during pregnancy possibly (low confidence in risk estimates) increase the risk of stillbirths aOR 1.43 (1.02 to 1.99), extremely premature births aOR 1.69 (1.17 to 2.45), moderately premature birth aOR 1.26 (1.15 to 1.38), SGA aOR 1.26 (1.09 to 1.46), reduced birth weight mean difference of 72.47 g (110.58 g to 34.35 g reduction) and oral cleft malformations aOR 1.48 (1.00 to 2.21). It is uncertain (low confidence in risk estimates, CI crossing 1) whether snus use during pregnancy affects risk of preeclampsia aOR 1.11 (0.97 to 1.28), antenatal bleeding aOR 1.15 (0.92 to 1.44) and very premature birth aOR 1.26 (0.95 to 1.66). Risk of early neonatal mortality and altered heart rate variability is uncertain, very low confidence. Snus using mothers had increased prevalence of caesarean sections, low confidence. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review reveals that use of smokeless tobacco (snus) during pregnancy may adversely impact the developing child.

Protocol for designing INVITES-IN, a tool for assessing the internal validity of in vitro studies.

This protocol describes the design and development of a tool for evaluation of the internal validity of in vitro studies, which is needed to include the data as evidence in systematic reviews and chemical risk assessments. The tool will be designed specifically to be applied to cell culture studies, including, but not restricted to, studies meeting the new approach methodology (NAM) definition. The tool is called INVITES-IN (IN VITro Experimental Studies INternal validity). In this protocol, three of the four studies that will be performed to create the release version of INVITES-IN are described. In the first study, evaluation of existing assessment tools will be combined with focus group discussions to identify how characteristics of the design or conduct of an in vitro study can affect its internal validity. Bias domains and items considered to be of relevance for in vitro studies will be identified. In the second study, group agreement on internal validity domains and items of importance for in vitro studies will be identified via a modified Delphi methodology. In the third study, the draft version of the tool will be created, based on the data on relevance and importance of bias domains and items collected in Studies 1 and 2. A separate protocol will be prepared for the fourth study, which includes the user testing and validation of the tool, and collection of users' experience.

Guidance for evidence-informed policies about health systems: assessing how much confidence to place in the research evidence.

In the third paper in a three-part series on health systems guidance, Simon Lewin and colleagues explore the challenge of assessing how much confidence to place in evidence on health systems interventions.

Hospital at home for acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

BACKGROUND: Hospital at home schemes are a recently adopted method of service delivery for the management of acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) aimed at reducing demand for acute hospital inpatient beds and promoting a patient-centred approach through admission avoidance. However, evidence in support of such a service is contradictory. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the efficacy of hospital at home compared to hospital inpatient care in acute exacerbations of COPD. SEARCH METHODS: Trials were identified from searches of electronic databases, including CENTRAL, MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Airways Group Register (CAGR). The review authors checked the reference lists of included trials. The CAGR was searched up to February 2012. The additional databases were searched up to October 2010. SELECTION CRITERIA: We considered randomised controlled trials where patients presented to the emergency department with an exacerbation of their COPD. Studies must not have recruited patients for whom treatment at home is usually not viewed as an responsible option (e.g. patients with an impaired level of consciousness, acute confusion, acute changes on the radiograph or electrocardiogram, arterial pH less than 7.35, concomitant medical conditions). DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently selected articles for inclusion, assessed the risk of bias and extracted data for each of the included trials. MAIN RESULTS: Eight trials with 870 patients were included in the review and showed a significant reduction in readmission rates for hospital at home compared with hospital inpatient care of acute exacerbations of COPD (risk ratio (RR)0.76; 95% confidence interval (CI) from 0.59 to 0.99; P=0.04). Moreover, we observed a trend towards lower mortality in the hospital at home group, but the pooled effect estimate did not reach statistical significance (RR 0.65, 95% CI 0.40 to 1.04, P = 0.07). For health-related quality of life, lung function (FEV1) and direct costs, the quality of the available evidence is in general too weak to make firm conclusions. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Selected patients presenting to hospital emergency departments with acute exacerbations of COPD can be safely and successfully treated at home with support from respiratory nurses. We found evidence of moderate quality that hospital at home may be advantageous with respect to readmission rates in these patients. Treatment of acute exacerbation of COPD in hospital at home also show a trend towards reduced mortality rate when compared with conventional inpatient treatment, but these results did not reach statistical significance (moderate quality evidence). For other outcomes than readmission and mortality rate, we assessed the evidence to be of low or very low quality.

New treatments compared to established treatments in randomized trials.

BACKGROUND: The proportion of proposed new treatments that are 'successful' is of ethical, scientific, and public importance. We investigated how often new, experimental treatments evaluated in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are superior to established treatments. OBJECTIVES: Our main question was: "On average how often are new treatments more effective, equally effective or less effective than established treatments?" Additionally, we wanted to explain the observed results, i.e. whether the observed distribution of outcomes is consistent with the 'uncertainty requirement' for enrollment in RCTs. We also investigated the effect of choice of comparator (active versus no treatment/placebo) on the observed results. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Methodology Register (CMR) 2010, Issue 1 in The Cochrane Library (searched 31 March 2010); MEDLINE Ovid 1950 to March Week 2 2010 (searched 24 March 2010); and EMBASE Ovid 1980 to 2010 Week 11 (searched 24 March 2010). SELECTION CRITERIA: Cohorts of studies were eligible for the analysis if they met all of the following criteria: (i) consecutive series of RCTs, (ii) registered at or before study onset, and (iii) compared new against established treatments in humans. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: RCTs from four cohorts of RCTs met all inclusion criteria and provided data from 743 RCTs involving 297,744 patients. All four cohorts consisted of publicly funded trials. Two cohorts involved evaluations of new treatments in cancer, one in neurological disorders, and one for mixed types of diseases. We employed kernel density estimation, meta-analysis and meta-regression to assess the probability of new treatments being superior to established treatments in their effect on primary outcomes and overall survival. MAIN RESULTS: The distribution of effects seen was generally symmetrical in the size of difference between new versus established treatments. Meta-analytic pooling indicated that, on average, new treatments were slightly more favorable both in terms of their effect on reducing the primary outcomes (hazard ratio (HR)/odds ratio (OR) 0.91, 99% confidence interval (CI) 0.88 to 0.95) and improving overall survival (HR 0.95, 99% CI 0.92 to 0.98). No heterogeneity was observed in the analysis based on primary outcomes or overall survival (I(2) = 0%). Kernel density analysis was consistent with the meta-analysis, but showed a fairly symmetrical distribution of new versus established treatments indicating unpredictability in the results. This was consistent with the interpretation that new treatments are only slightly superior to established treatments when tested in RCTs. Additionally, meta-regression demonstrated that results have remained stable over time and that the success rate of new treatments has not changed over the last half century of clinical trials. The results were not significantly affected by the choice of comparator (active versus placebo/no therapy). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Society can expect that slightly more than half of new experimental treatments will prove to be better than established treatments when tested in RCTs, but few will be substantially better. This is an important finding for patients (as they contemplate participation in RCTs), researchers (as they plan design of the new trials), and funders (as they assess the 'return on investment'). Although we provide the current best evidence on the question of expected 'success rate' of new versus established treatments consistent with a priori theoretical predictions reflective of 'uncertainty or equipoise hypothesis', it should be noted that our sample represents less than 1% of all available randomized trials; therefore, one should exercise the appropriate caution in interpretation of our findings. In addition, our conclusion applies to publicly funded trials only, as we did not include studies funded by commercial sponsors in our analysis.

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) may explain the paradoxical effects of cigarette use on preeclampsia (PE).

Tobacco smoking and use of snus (smokeless tobacco) are associated with adverse effects on pregnancy and neonatal outcomes. Nicotine is considered a key toxicant involved in effects caused by both smoking and snus, while pyrolysis products including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in cigarette smoke represents the constituents most unequally divided between these two groups of tobacco products. The aim of this review was: i) to compare the impact, in terms of relative effect estimates, of cigarette smoking and use of Swedish snus on pregnancy outcomes using similar non-tobacco user controls, and ii) to examine whether exposure to PAHs from smoking could explain possible differences in impact on pregnancy outcomes. We systematically searched MEDLINE, Embase, PsycInfo, Web of Science and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews up to October 2021 and identified studies reporting risks for adverse pregnancy and neonatal outcomes associated with snus use and with smoking relative to pregnant women with no use of tobacco. Both snus use and smoking were associated with increased risk of stillbirth, preterm birth, and oral cleft malformation, with comparable point estimates. These effects were likely due to comparable nicotine exposure. We also found striking differences. While both smoking and snus increased the risk of having small for gestational age (SGA) infants, risk from maternal smoking was markedly higher as was the reduction in birthweight. In contrast, the risk of preeclampsia (PE) was markedly lower in smokers than in controls, while snus use was associated with a slightly increased risk. We suggest that PAHs acting via AhR may explain the stronger effects of tobacco smoking on SGA and also to the apparent protective effect of cigarette smoking on PE. Possible mechanisms involved include: i) disrupted endocrine control of fetal development as well as placental development and function, and ii) stress adaption and immune suppression in placenta and mother.

Using alternative statistical formats for presenting risks and risk reductions.

BACKGROUND: The success of evidence-based practice depends on the clear and effective communication of statistical information. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effects of using alternative statistical presentations of the same risks and risk reductions on understanding, perception, persuasiveness and behaviour of health professionals, policy makers, and consumers. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched Ovid MEDLINE (1966 to October 2007), EMBASE (1980 to October 2007), PsycLIT (1887 to October 2007), and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (The Cochrane Library, 2007, Issue 3). We reviewed the reference lists of relevant articles, and contacted experts in the field. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomized and non-randomized controlled parallel and cross-over studies. We focused on four comparisons: a comparison of statistical presentations of a risk (eg frequencies versus probabilities) and three comparisons of statistical presentation of risk reduction: relative risk reduction (RRR) versus absolute risk reduction (ARR), RRR versus number needed to treat (NNT), and ARR versus NNT. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two authors independently selected studies for inclusion, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias. We contacted investigators to obtain missing information. We graded the quality of evidence for each outcome using the GRADE approach. We standardized the outcome effects using adjusted standardized mean difference (SMD). MAIN RESULTS: We included 35 studies reporting 83 comparisons. None of the studies involved policy makers. Participants (health professionals and consumers) understood natural frequencies better than probabilities (SMD 0.69 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.45 to 0.93)). Compared with ARR, RRR had little or no difference in understanding (SMD 0.02 (95% CI -0.39 to 0.43)) but was perceived to be larger (SMD 0.41 (95% CI 0.03 to 0.79)) and more persuasive (SMD 0.66 (95% CI 0.51 to 0.81)). Compared with NNT, RRR was better understood (SMD 0.73 (95% CI 0.43 to 1.04)), was perceived to be larger (SMD 1.15 (95% CI 0.80 to 1.50)) and was more persuasive (SMD 0.65 (95% CI 0.51 to 0.80)). Compared with NNT, ARR was better understood (SMD 0.42 (95% CI 0.12 to 0.71)), was perceived to be larger (SMD 0.79 (95% CI 0.43 to 1.15)).There was little or no difference for persuasiveness (SMD 0.05 (95% CI -0.04 to 0.15)). The sensitivity analyses including only high quality comparisons showed consistent results for persuasiveness for all three comparisons. Overall there were no differences between health professionals and consumers. The overall quality of evidence was rated down to moderate because of the use of surrogate outcomes and/or heterogeneity. None of the comparisons assessed behaviourbehaviour. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Natural frequencies are probably better understood than probabilities. Relative risk reduction (RRR), compared with absolute risk reduction (ARR) and number needed to treat (NNT), may be perceived to be larger and is more likely to be persuasive. However, it is uncertain whether presenting RRR is likely to help people make decisions most consistent with their own values and, in fact, it could lead to misinterpretation. More research is needed to further explore this question.

Home fortification of foods with multiple micronutrient powders for health and nutrition in children under two years of age.

BACKGROUND: Vitamin and mineral deficiencies, particularly those of iron, vitamin A and zinc, affect more than two billion people worldwide. Young children are highly vulnerable because of rapid growth and inadequate dietary practices. Micronutrient powders (MNP) are single-dose packets containing multiple vitamins and minerals in powder form that can be sprinkled onto any semi-solid food.The use of MNP for home or point-of-use fortification of complementary foods has been proposed as an intervention for improving micronutrient intake in children under two years of age. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects and safety of home (point-of-use) fortification of foods with multiple micronutrient powders on nutritional, health and developmental outcomes in children under two years of age. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched the following databases in February 2011: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library), MEDLINE (1948 to week 2 February 2011), EMBASE (1980 to Week 6 2011), CINAHL (1937 to current), CPCI-S (1990 to 19 February 2011), Science Citation Index (1970 to 19 February 2011), African Index Medicus (searched 23 February 2011), POPLINE (searched 21 February 2011), ClinicalTrials.gov (searched 23 February 2011), mRCT (searched 23 February 2011), and World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) (searched 23 February 2011). We also contacted relevant organisations (25 January 2011) for the identification of ongoing and unpublished studies. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised and quasi-randomised trials with either individual or cluster randomisation. Participants were children under the age of two years at the time of intervention, with no specific health problems. The intervention was consumption of food fortified at the point of use with multiple micronutrient powders formulated with at least iron, zinc and vitamin A compared with placebo, no intervention or the use of iron containing supplements, which is the standard practice. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently assessed the eligibility of studies against the inclusion criteria, extracted data from included studies and assessed the risk of bias of the included studies. MAIN RESULTS: We included eight trials (3748 participants) conducted in low income countries in Asia, Africa and the Caribbean, where anaemia is a public health problem. The interventions lasted between two and 12 months and the powder formulations contained between five and 15 nutrients. Six trials compared the use of MNP versus no intervention or a placebo and the other two compared the use of MNP versus daily iron drops. Most of the included trials were assessed as at low risk of bias.Home fortification with MNP reduced anaemia by 31% (six trials, RR 0.69; 95% CI 0.60 to 0.78) and iron deficiency by 51% (four trials, RR 0.49; 95% CI 0.35 to 0.67) in infants and young children when compared with no intervention or placebo, but we did not find an effect on growth.In comparison with daily iron supplementation, the use of MNP produced similar results on anaemia (one trial, RR 0.89; 95% CI 0.58 to 1.39) and haemoglobin concentrations (two trials, MD -2.36 g/L; 95% CI -10.30 to 5.58); however, given the limited amount of data these results should be interpreted cautiously.No deaths were reported in the trials and information on side effects and morbidity, including malaria, was scarce.It seems that the use of MNP is efficacious among infants and young children six to 23 months of age living in settings with different prevalences of anaemia and malaria endemicity, regardless of whether the intervention lasts two, six or 12 months or whether recipients are male or female. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Home fortification of foods with multiple micronutrient powders is an effective intervention to reduce anaemia and iron deficiency in children six months to 23 months of age. The provision of MNP is better than no intervention or placebo and possibly comparable to commonly used daily iron supplementation. The benefits of this intervention as a child survival strategy or on developmental outcomes are unclear. Data on effects on malaria outcomes are lacking and further investigation of morbidity outcomes is needed. The micronutrient powders containing multiple nutrients are well accepted but adherence is variable and in some cases comparable to that achieved in infants and young children receiving standard iron supplements as drops or syrups.

Framing of health information messages.

BACKGROUND: The same information about the evidence on health effects can be framed either in positive words or in negative words. Some research suggests that positive versus negative framing can lead to different decisions, a phenomenon described as the framing effect. Attribute framing is the positive versus negative description of a specific attribute of a single item or a state, for example, "the chance of survival with cancer is 2/3" versus "the chance of mortality with cancer is 1/3". Goal framing is the description of the consequences of performing or not performing an act as a gain versus a loss, for example, "if you undergo a screening test for cancer, your survival will be prolonged" versus "if you don't undergo screening test for cancer, your survival will be shortened". OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effects of attribute (positive versus negative) framing and of goal (gain versus loss) framing of the same health information, on understanding, perception of effectiveness, persuasiveness, and behavior of health professionals, policy makers, and consumers. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL, The Cochrane Library, issue 3 2007), MEDLINE (Ovid) (1966 to October 2007), EMBASE (Ovid) (1980 to October 2007), PsycINFO (Ovid) (1887 to October 2007). There were no language restrictions. We reviewed the reference lists of related systematic reviews, included studies and of excluded but closely related studies. We also contacted experts in the field. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomized controlled trials, quasi-randomised controlled trials, and cross-over studies with health professionals, policy makers, and consumers evaluating one of the two types of framing. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors extracted data in duplicate and independently. We graded the quality of evidence for each outcome using the GRADE approach. We standardized the outcome effects using standardized mean difference (SMD). We stratified the analysis by the type of framing (attribute, goal) and conducted pre-planned subgroup analyses based on the type of message (screening, prevention, and treatment). The primary outcome was behaviour. We did not assess any adverse outcomes. MAIN RESULTS: We included 35 studies involving 16,342 participants (all health consumers) and reporting 51 comparisons.In the context of attribute framing, participants in one included study understood the message better when it was framed negatively than when it was framed positively (1 study; SMD -0.58 (95% confidence interval (CI) -0.94 to -0.22); moderate effect size; low quality evidence). Although positively-framed messages may have led to more positive perception of effectiveness than negatively-framed messages (2 studies; SMD 0.36 (95% CI -0.13 to 0.85); small effect size; low quality evidence), there was little or no difference in persuasiveness (11 studies; SMD 0.07 (95% CI -0.23 to 0.37); low quality evidence) and behavior (1 study; SMD 0.09 (95% CI -0.14 to 0.31); moderate quality evidence).In the context of goal framing, loss messages led to a more positive perception of effectiveness compared to gain messages for screening messages (5 studies; SMD -0.30 (95% CI -0.49 to -0.10); small effect size; moderate quality evidence) and may have been more persuasive for treatment messages (3 studies; SMD -0.50 (95% CI -1.04 to 0.04); moderate effect size; very low quality evidence). There was little or no difference in behavior (16 studies; SMD -0.06 (95% CI -0.15 to 0.03); low quality evidence). No study assessed the effect on understanding. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to commonly held beliefs, the available low to moderate quality evidence suggests that both attribute and goal framing may have little if any consistent effect on health consumers' behaviour. The unexplained heterogeneity between studies suggests the possibility of a framing effect under specific conditions. Future research needs to investigate these conditions.