Determinants of health-related quality of life in healthy children and adolescents during the COVID-19 pandemic: Results from a prospective longitudinal cohort study.

Understanding health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in children and adolescents, during a pandemic and afterwards, aids in understanding how circumstances in their lives impact their well-being. We aimed to identify determinants of HRQOL from a broad range of biological, psychological, and social factors in a large longitudinal population-based sample. Data was taken from a longitudinal sample (n = 1843) of children and adolescents enrolled in the prospective school-based cohort study Ciao Corona in Switzerland. The primary outcome was HRQOL, assessed using the KINDL total score and its subscales (each from 0, worst, to 100, best). Potential determinants, including biological (physical activity, screen time, sleep, etc.), psychological (sadness, anxiousness, stress), and social (nationality, parents' education, etc.) factors, were assessed in 2020 and 2021 and HRQOL in 2022. Determinants were identified in a data-driven manner using recursive partitioning to define homogeneous subgroups, stratified by school level. Median KINDL total score in the empirically identified subgroups ranged from 68 to 83 in primary school children and from 69 to 82 in adolescents in secondary school. The psychological factors sadness, anxiousness, and stress in 2021 were identified as the most important determinants of HRQOL in both primary and secondary school children. Other factors, such as physical activity, screen time, chronic health conditions, or nationality, were determinants only in individual subscales. CONCLUSION: Recent mental health, more than biological, physical, or social factors, played a key role in determining HRQOL in children and adolescents during pandemic times. Public health strategies to improve mental health may therefore be effective in improving HRQOL in this age group. WHAT IS KNOWN: • Assessing health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in children and adolescents aids in understanding how life circumstances impact their well-being. • HRQOL is a complex construct, involving biological, psychological, and social factors. Factors driving HRQOL in children and adolescents are not often studied in longitudinal population-based samples. WHAT IS NEW: • Mental health (stress, anxiousness, sadness) played a key role in determining HRQOL during the coronavirus pandemic, more than biological or social factors. • Public health strategies to improve mental health may be effective in improving HRQOL in children.

A combined cross-sectional analysis and case-control study evaluating tick-borne encephalitis vaccination coverage, disease and vaccine effectiveness in children and adolescents, Switzerland, 2005 to 2022.

BackgroundTick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a severe, vaccine-preventable viral infection of the central nervous system. Symptoms are generally milder in children and adolescents than in adults, though severe disease does occur. A better understanding of the disease burden and duration of vaccine-mediated protection is important for vaccination recommendations.AimTo estimate TBE vaccination coverage, disease severity and vaccine effectiveness (VE) among individuals aged 0-17 years in Switzerland.MethodsVaccination coverage between 2005 and 2022 was estimated using the Swiss National Vaccination Coverage Survey (SNVCS), a nationwide, repeated cross-sectional study assessing vaccine uptake. Incidence and severity of TBE between 2005 and 2022 were determined using data from the Swiss disease surveillance system and VE was calculated using a case-control analysis, matching TBE cases with SNVCS controls.ResultsOver the study period, vaccination coverage increased substantially, from 4.8% (95% confidence interval (CI): 4.1-5.5%) to 50.1% (95% CI: 48.3-52.0%). Reported clinical symptoms in TBE cases were similar irrespective of age. Neurological involvement was less likely in incompletely (1-2 doses) and completely (≥ 3 doses) vaccinated cases compared with unvaccinated ones. For incomplete vaccination, VE was 66.2% (95% CI: 42.3-80.2), whereas VE for complete vaccination was 90.8% (95% CI: 87.7-96.4). Vaccine effectiveness remained high, 83.9% (95% CI: 69.0-91.7) up to 10 years since last vaccination.ConclusionsEven children younger than 5 years can experience severe TBE. Incomplete and complete vaccination protect against neurological manifestations of the disease. Complete vaccination offers durable protection up to 10 years against TBE.

Experts vs. machine - comparison of machine learning to expert-informed prediction of outcome after major liver surgery.

BACKGROUND: Machine learning (ML) has been successfully implemented for classification tasks (e.g., cancer diagnosis). ML performance for more challenging predictions is largely unexplored. This study's objective was to compare machine learning vs. expert-informed predictions for surgical outcome in patients undergoing major liver surgery. METHODS: Single tertiary center data on preoperative parameters and postoperative complications for elective hepatic surgery patients were included (2008-2021). Expert-informed prediction models were established on 14 parameters identified by two expert liver surgeons to impact on postoperative outcome. ML models used all available preoperative patient variables (n = 62). Model performance was compared for predicting 3-month postoperative overall morbidity. Temporal validation and additional analysis in major liver resection patients were conducted. RESULTS: 889 patients included. Expert-informed models showed low average bias (2-5 CCI points) with high over/underprediction. ML models performed similarly: average prediction 5-10 points higher than observed CCI values with high variability (95% CI -30 to 50). No performance improvement for major liver surgery patients. CONCLUSION: No clinical relevance in the application of ML for predicting postoperative overall morbidity was found. Despite being a novel hype, ML has the potential for application in clinical practice. However, at this stage it does not replace established approaches of prediction modelling.

Respiratory morbidity in preschool and school-age children born very preterm and its association with parents' health-related quality of life and family functioning.

The purpose of this study is to describe the prevalence and severity of respiratory symptoms in children born very preterm and to assess their association with parents' health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and family functioning. We conducted a cross-sectional study and recruited children born less than 32 weeks' gestation between January 2006 and December 2019, in the greater Zurich area, Switzerland. Between May and December 2021, parents were invited to complete an online survey for their preterm child and for a control term born (≥ 37 weeks' gestation) sibling aged 1 to 18 years. We used a validated questionnaire to assess respiratory symptoms and the Pediatrics Quality of Life Family Impact Module (PedsQL FIM) to assess parents' HRQoL and family functioning. The survey was completed for 616 very preterm children (99 with bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD)) and 180 controls. Girls made up 45% (46% in controls) of the sample, and 63% (60% in controls) of participants were aged 6 to 18 years (school-age). Very preterm children reported a higher risk of respiratory symptoms than controls, especially preschoolers and those with moderate-to-severe BPD. Parents of children with "mild" and "moderate-severe" respiratory symptoms had on average -3.9 (95%CI: -6.6 to -1.1) and -8.2 (-11.2 to -5.2) lower PedsQL FIM total score, respectively, than parents of children with no symptoms. The same pattern was observed after stratifying by age categories.  Conclusions: Our study suggests that respiratory morbidity in very preterm children has a negative impact on parents' HRQoL and family functioning, even beyond the first years of life. What is Known: • The burden of respiratory morbidity associated with very premature birth is high and last far beyond the neonatal period. • Respiratory morbidity contributes to lower health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in parents of very preterm children in early infancy. What is New: • Respiratory morbidity in very preterm children has a negative impact on parents' HRQoL and family functioning beyond the first years of life. • Parents of very preterm children with moderate and severe respiratory symptoms are the ones who report lower scores, both for preschool and school-age children.

Surgical outcome improvement by shared decision-making: value of a preoperative multidisciplinary target clinic for the elderly in colorectal surgery.

PURPOSE: Frailty and comorbidities increase the risk of postoperative complications and raise treatment costs. Perioperative optimisation is shown to improve surgical outcomes for the elderly. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of introducing a multidisciplinary preoperative clinic for older patients (Colchester Older Persons' Evaluation for Surgery (COPES) clinic) undergoing major colorectal surgery. METHODS: This 5-year single centre study included patients >65 years with ≥3 comorbidities undergoing major colorectal surgery. From October 2018, patients with these characteristics were evaluated and optimised in the COPES clinic by a geriatrician and an anaesthetist. Outcomes were compared to high-risk patients operated on prior to COPES (pre-COPES group). The primary outcomes were postoperative morbidity at discharge and 6 months measured by the Comprehensive Complication Index. Patients were matched on age and number of comorbidities. RESULTS: A total of 54 patients were enrolled in the pre-COPES and 18 in the COPES group. After matching, the results were comparable for both groups. The length of stay was shorter in the COPES group and the recurrence rate was higher; however, it did not reach statistical significance in both findings. CONCLUSION: This clinic intends to improve treatment quality, placing emphasis on shared decision-making. More focus should be put on patient-reported outcomes and experiences. Especially for elderly patients, quality of life and maintaining independence are often their priority. To determine the true value of a preoperative multidisciplinary clinic targeting elderly comorbid patients, a prospective study with larger cohort is needed, focusing not only on objective outcomes but also on patient-reported outcomes.

There is no evidence that carbon dioxide-enriched oxygen before apnea affects the time to arterial desaturation, but it might improve cerebral oxygenation in anesthetized obese patients: a single-blinded randomized crossover trial.

PURPOSE: Carbon dioxide (CO2) increases cerebral perfusion. The effect of CO2 on apnea tolerance, such as after anesthesia induction, is unknown. This study aimed to assess if cerebral apnea tolerance can be improved in obese patients under general anesthesia when comparing O2/Air (95%O2) to O2/CO2 (95%O2/5%CO2). METHODS: In this single-center, single-blinded, randomized crossover trial, 30 patients 18-65 years, with body mass index > 35 kg/m2, requiring general anesthesia for bariatric surgery, underwent two apneas that were preceded by ventilation with either O2/Air or O2/CO2 in random order. After anesthesia induction, intubation, and ventilation with O2/Air or O2/CO2 for 10 min, apnea was performed until the cerebral tissue oxygenation index (TOI) dropped by a relative 20% from baseline (primary endpoint) or oxygen saturation (SpO2) reached 80% (safety abortion criterion). The intervention was then repeated with the second substance. RESULTS: The safety criterion was reached in all patients before cerebral TOI decreased by 20%. The time until SpO2 dropped to 80% was similar in the two groups (+ 6 s with O2/CO2, 95%CI -7 to 19 s, p = 0.37). Cerebral TOI and PaO2 were higher after O2/CO2 (+ 1.5%; 95%CI: from 0.3 to 2.6; p = 0.02 and + 0.6 kPa; 95%CI: 0.1 to 1.1; p = 0.02). CONCLUSION: O2/CO2 improves cerebral TOI and PaO2 in anesthetized bariatric patients. Better apnea tolerance could not be confirmed.

Neoadjuvant Therapy for Resectable Pancreatic Cancer: A New Standard of Care. Pooled Data From 3 Randomized Controlled Trials.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to pool data from randomized controlled trials (RCT) limited to resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) to determine whether a neoadjuvant therapy impacts on disease-free survival (DFS) and surgical outcome. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Few underpowered studies have suggested benefits from neoadjuvant chemo (± radiation) for strictly resectable PDAC without offering conclusive recommendations. METHODS: Three RCTs were identified comparing neoadjuvant chemo (± radio) therapy vs. upfront surgery followed by adjuvant therapy in all cases. Data were pooled targeting DFS as primary endpoint, whereas overall survival (OS), postoperative morbidity, and mortality were investigated as secondary endpoints. Survival endpoints DFS and OS were compared using Cox proportional hazards regression with study-specific baseline hazards. RESULTS: A total of 130 patients were randomized (56 in the neoadjuvant and 74 in the control group). DFS was significantly longer in the neoadjuvant treatment group compared to surgery only [hazard ratio (HR) 0.6, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.4-0.9] (P = 0.01). Furthermore, DFS for the subgroup of R0 resections was similarly longer in the neoadjuvant treated group (HR 0.6, 95% CI 0.35-0.9, P = 0.045). Although postoperative complications (Comprehensive Complication Index, CCI®) occurred less frequently (P = 0.008), patients after neoadjuvant therapy experienced a higher toxicity, but without negative impact on oncological or surgical outcome parameters. CONCLUSION: Neoadjuvant therapy can be offered as an acceptable standard of care for patients with purely resectable PDAC. Future research with the advances of precision oncology should now focus on the definition of the optimal regimen.

Effects of suboptimal adherence of CPAP therapy on symptoms of obstructive sleep apnoea: a randomised, double-blind, controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: Continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) is currently the treatment of choice for sleepiness in patients with obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA); however, adherence is often thought to be suboptimal. We investigated the effects of suboptimal CPAP usage on objective and subjective sleepiness parameters in patients with OSA. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In this 2-week, parallel, double-blind, randomised controlled trial we enrolled moderate-to-severe OSA patients with excessive pre-treatment daytime sleepiness (Epworth sleepiness scale (ESS) score >10 points) who had suboptimal CPAP adherence over ≥12 months (mean nightly usage time 3-4 h). Patients were allocated through minimisation to either subtherapeutic CPAP ("sham CPAP") or continuation of CPAP ("therapeutic CPAP"). A Bayesian analysis with historical priors calculated the posterior probability of superiority. RESULTS: Between May, 2016 and November, 2018, 57 patients (aged 60±8 years, 79% male, 93% Caucasian) were allocated in total, and 52 who completed the study (50% in each arm) were included in the final analysis. The unadjusted ESS score increase was 2.4 points (95% CI 0.6-4.2, p=0.01) in the sham-CPAP group when compared to continuing therapeutic CPAP. The probability of superiority of therapeutic CPAP over sham CPAP was 90.4% for ESS, 90.1% for systolic blood pressure and 80.3% for diastolic blood pressure. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with moderate-to-severe OSA and daytime sleepiness are still getting a substantial benefit from suboptimal CPAP adherence, albeit not as much as they might get if they adhered more. Whether a similar statement can be made for even lower adherence levels remains to be established in future trials.

Bronchoalveolar lavage cytokines are of minor value to diagnose complications following lung transplantation.

Early diagnosis and treatment of acute cellular rejection (ACR) may improve long-term outcome for lung transplant recipients (LTRs). Cytokines have become valuable diagnostic tools in many medical fields. The role of bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) cytokines is of unknown value to diagnose ACR and distinguish rejection from infection. We hypothesized that distinct cytokine patterns obtained by surveillance bronchoscopies during the first year after transplantation are associated with ACR and microbiologic findings. We retrospectively analyzed data from 319 patients undergoing lung transplantation at University Hospital Zurich from 1998 to 2016. We compared levels of IL-6, IL-8, IFN-γ and TNF-α in 747 BAL samples with transbronchial biopsies (TBB) and microbiologic results from surveillance bronchoscopies. We aimed to define reference values that would allow distinction between four specific groups "ACR", "infection", "combined ACR and infection" and "no pathologic process". No definitive pattern was identified. Given the overlap between groups, these four cytokines are not suitable diagnostic markers for ACR or infection after lung transplantation.

Global variation of risk thresholds for initiating statins for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: a benefit-harm balance modelling study.

BACKGROUND: We previously showed that the 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk threshold to initiate statins for primary prevention depends on the baseline CVD risk, age, sex, and the incidence of statin-related harm outcome and competing risk for non-CVD death. As these factors appear to vary across countries, we aimed in this study to determine country-specific thresholds and provide guidelines a quantitative benefit-harm assessment method for local adaptation. METHODS: For each of the 186 countries included, we replicated the benefit-harm balance analysis using an exponential model to determine the thresholds to initiate statin use for populations aged 40 to 75 years, with no history of CVD. The analyses took data inputs from a priori studies, including statin effect estimates (network meta-analysis), patient preferences (survey), and baseline incidence of harm outcomes and competing risk for non-CVD (global burden of disease study). We estimated the risk thresholds above which the benefits of statins were more likely to outweigh the harms using a stochastic approach to account for statistical uncertainty of the input parameters. RESULTS: The 5th and 95th percentiles of the 10-year risk thresholds above which the benefits of statins outweigh the harms across 186 countries ranged between 14 and 20% in men and 19-24% in women, depending on age (i.e., 90% of the country-specific thresholds were in the ranges stated). The median risk thresholds varied from 14 to 18.5% in men and 19 to 22% in women. The between-country variability of the thresholds was slightly attenuated when further adjusted for age resulting, for example, in a 5th and 95th percentiles of 14-16% for ages 40-44 years and 17-21% for ages 70-74 years in men. Some countries, especially the islands of the Western Pacific Region, had higher thresholds to achieve net benefit of statins at 25-36% 10-year CVD risks. CONCLUSIONS: This extensive benefit-harm analysis modeling shows that a single CVD risk threshold, irrespective of age, sex and country, is not appropriate to initiate statin use globally. Instead, countries need to carefully determine thresholds, considering the national or subnational contexts, to optimize benefits of statins while minimizing related harms and economic burden.

Endocrine responses during CPAP withdrawal in obstructive sleep apnoea: data from two randomised controlled trials.

The aim of this investigation was to elucidate the effect of CPAP withdrawal on neurometabolic and cardiometabolic markers in patients with obstructive sleep apnoea. We evaluated 70 patients (mean age 61±10 years, 82% men) treated with CPAP in two 2-week, parallel, randomised controlled trials. CPAP withdrawal resulted in elevated 3,4-dihydroxyphenylglycol, norepinephrine and cortisol after 2 weeks of CPAP withdrawal; however, no statistically significant changes of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) determinants were documented. In summary, CPAP withdrawal may be more prominently linked to short-term increases in sympathetic activation than hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis or RAAS activation. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02493673 and NCT02050425.

Effects of short-term continuous positive airway pressure withdrawal on cerebral vascular reactivity measured by blood oxygen level-dependent magnetic resonance imaging in obstructive sleep apnoea: a randomised controlled trial.

Impaired cerebral vascular reactivity (CVR) increases long-term stroke risk. Obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) is associated with peripheral vascular dysfunction and vascular events. The aim of this trial was to evaluate the effect of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) withdrawal on CVR.41 OSA patients (88% male, mean age 57±10 years) were randomised to either subtherapeutic or continuation of therapeutic CPAP. At baseline and after 2 weeks, patients underwent a sleep study and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). CVR was estimated by quantifying the blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) MRI response to breathing stimuli.OSA did recur in the subtherapeutic CPAP group (mean treatment effect apnoea-hypopnoea index +38.0 events·h-1, 95% CI 24.2-52.0; p<0.001) but remained controlled in the therapeutic group. Although there was a significant increase in blood pressure upon CPAP withdrawal (mean treatment effect +9.37 mmHg, 95% CI 1.36-17.39; p=0.023), there was no significant effect of CPAP withdrawal on CVR assessed via BOLD MRI under either hyperoxic or hypercapnic conditions.Short-term CPAP withdrawal did not result in statistically significant changes in CVR as assessed by functional MRI, despite the recurrence of OSA. We thus conclude that, unlike peripheral endothelial function, CVR is not affected by short-term CPAP withdrawal.

Large-scale external validation and comparison of prognostic models: an application to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

BACKGROUND: External validations and comparisons of prognostic models or scores are a prerequisite for their use in routine clinical care but are lacking in most medical fields including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Our aim was to externally validate and concurrently compare prognostic scores for 3-year all-cause mortality in mostly multimorbid patients with COPD. METHODS: We relied on 24 cohort studies of the COPD Cohorts Collaborative International Assessment consortium, corresponding to primary, secondary, and tertiary care in Europe, the Americas, and Japan. These studies include globally 15,762 patients with COPD (1871 deaths and 42,203 person years of follow-up). We used network meta-analysis adapted to multiple score comparison (MSC), following a frequentist two-stage approach; thus, we were able to compare all scores in a single analytical framework accounting for correlations among scores within cohorts. We assessed transitivity, heterogeneity, and inconsistency and provided a performance ranking of the prognostic scores. RESULTS: Depending on data availability, between two and nine prognostic scores could be calculated for each cohort. The BODE score (body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnea, and exercise capacity) had a median area under the curve (AUC) of 0.679 [1st quartile-3rd quartile = 0.655-0.733] across cohorts. The ADO score (age, dyspnea, and airflow obstruction) showed the best performance for predicting mortality (difference AUCADO - AUCBODE = 0.015 [95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.002 to 0.032]; p = 0.08) followed by the updated BODE (AUCBODE updated - AUCBODE = 0.008 [95% CI = -0.005 to +0.022]; p = 0.23). The assumption of transitivity was not violated. Heterogeneity across direct comparisons was small, and we did not identify any local or global inconsistency. CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses showed best discriminatory performance for the ADO and updated BODE scores in patients with COPD. A limitation to be addressed in future studies is the extension of MSC network meta-analysis to measures of calibration. MSC network meta-analysis can be applied to prognostic scores in any medical field to identify the best scores, possibly paving the way for stratified medicine, public health, and research.

Physical activity and sedentary behavior in preschoolers: a longitudinal assessment of trajectories and determinants.

BACKGROUND: Despite physical activity (PA) being recognized as a critically important factor for good physical and mental health already early in life and throughout the life course, prospective data on activity behavior during the preschool years remains scarce. This study examined trajectories and determinants of levels and change in total PA (TPA), moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) and sedentary behavior (SB) in a representative sample of Swiss preschoolers. METHODS: Data were drawn from the Swiss Preschoolers' Health Study (SPLASHY), a multi-site prospective cohort study including 555 children (53% boys) aged 2-to-6 years at baseline. A follow-up was conducted after 12 months. Activity behavior was measured using accelerometers. Information on 35 potential determinants from different socio-ecological domains was either directly measured or parent-reported. Trajectories of TPA, MVPA and SB over time were described for boys and girls. Linear mixed models were used to investigate factors that predicted levels and change in TPA, MVPA and SB. RESULTS: All children were sufficiently physically active according to published recommendations for preschoolers. Trajectory profiles revealed a marked increase in TPA and MVPA in boys and girls whereas SB remained fairly stable over time. Mixed modeling demonstrated that variables most relevant to determining PA levels were sex, age and activity temperament (all positively associated). Together with gross motor skills, birth weight, family structure (only for TPA) and season (only for MVPA), these factors accounted for 26 and 32% of total variance explained in TPA and MVPA, respectively. Activity temperament emerged as the strongest determinant of SB (negative association) and explained with sex, season and family structure 20% of total variance in SB. The presence of older siblings was the only factor that predicted change in PA over time. CONCLUSIONS: In this healthy physically active cohort of preschoolers, non-modifiable individual-level factors had the greatest influence on PA. The limited success of this and previous studies to identify modifiable determinants and the finding that most preschoolers were sufficiently active suggest that future attempts should provide insights into how preschoolers' activity levels can be maintained and fostered to prevent subsequent harmful declines attributable, amongst others, to educational transitions. Thus, good-quality longitudinal studies are needed. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN41045021 (date of registration: 21.03.14).

Correction to: Multiple Score Comparison: a network meta-analysis approach to comparison and external validation of prognostic scores.

CORRECTION: Following publication of the original article [1], a member of the writing group reported that his name is misspelt. The paper should appear in Pubmed under "Ter Riet G", bot as "Riet GT".

Prognostic value of MIB-1 proliferation index in solitary fibrous tumors of the pleura implemented in a new score - a multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: Although the majority of solitary fibrous tumors of the pleura (SFTP) follow a benign course, 10-25% of patients suffer from recurrence or metastatic disease. Several scoring models have been proposed to predict the outcome. However, none of these included immunohistochemical (IHC) markers as possible prognosticators. METHODS: In this multicenter study, we collected clinical data and formalin-fixed and paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissue blocks of patients with histologically proven SFTP which had been surgically resected between 2000 und 2015. After systematic and extensive IHC staining on tissue microarrays, the results were analyzed and compared to histomorphological and clinical data for their possible prognostic value. RESULTS: In total, 78 patients (mean age 61 ± 11 years) were included. Of these, 9 patients (11%) had an adverse outcome including SFTP recurrence (n = 6) or SFTP-related death (n = 3). Mean overall survival was 172 ± 13 months. 1 and 10-year event-free survival rates were 99% and 93%. In the multivariable analysis only MIB-1 proliferation index (Ki-67) ≥10% (HR 12.3, CI 1.1-139.5, p = 0.043), ≥4 mitoses per 10 high power fields (HR 36.5, CI 1.2-1103.7, p = 0.039) and tumor size larger than 10 cm (HR 81.8, CI 1.7-4016.8, p = 0.027) were independently associated with adverse outcome. CONCLUSION: A high proliferation rate by MIB-1 IHC was associated with impaired outcome. Upon this, we established a new score using mitosis, necrosis, size of the tumor and MIB-1, which performed better than the traditional scores in our data set. This prognostic score could help to better evaluate outcome of SFTP, but requires external validation.

Night-to-night variability of obstructive sleep apnea.

One night of a sleep study is the standard for diagnosis and exclusion of obstructive sleep apnea. Single testing requires high sensitivity of the test method and a stable disease of interest to warrant a low rate of false-negative tests. Obstructive sleep apnea is diagnosed and graded by conventional thresholds of apneas and hypopneas per hour of sleep, and treatment is usually initiated in the presence of symptoms. The aim of this study was to assess night-to-night variability of obstructive sleep apnea to reassess the current practice. Seventy-seven patients previously diagnosed with obstructive sleep apnea, randomised to continuous positive airway pressure withdrawal within four trials, performed nightly pulse-oximetry over 2 weeks while off continuous positive airway pressure. The main outcome of interest was the coefficient of variation of the oxygen desaturation index marking night-to-night variability in obstructive sleep apnea. Obstructive sleep apnea was categorised according to conventional thresholds using oxygen desaturation index (no obstructive sleep apnea: <5 per h; mild: 5-15 per h; moderate: 15-30 per h; and severe: >30 per h). High night-to-night variability of obstructive sleep apnea was evidenced by a coefficient of variation of oxygen desaturation index of 31.1% (SD 16.5). Differences in oxygen desaturation index of >10 per h between nights were found in 84.4% and shifts in obstructive sleep apnea severity category in 77.9% of patients. The probability of missing moderate obstructive sleep apnea was up to 60%. Variability was higher in less severe obstructive sleep apnea. Obstructive sleep apnea shows a considerable night-to-night variability. Single-night diagnostic sleep studies are prone to miscategorise obstructive sleep apnea if arbitrary thresholds are used. Thus, treatment decisions should be based less on the conventional derivatives from sleep studies, especially in patients with less severe obstructive sleep apnea. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: www.controlled-trials.com (ISRCTN 93153804, ISRCTN 73047833) and www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01332175 & NCT02050425).

Body height and mortality - mortality follow-up of four Swiss surveys.

BACKGROUND: Adult body height is largely determined by genetics, but also by dietary factors, which in turn depend on socioeconomic status and lifestyle. We examined the association between adult body height and mortality in Switzerland, a country with three main language regions with different cultural background. METHODS: We included 16,831 men and 18,654 women, who participated in Swiss population-based health surveys conducted 1977-1993 and who were followed up until end of 2008. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were computed to examine the association of body height with overall, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality. RESULTS: We observed a positive association between adult body height and all-cause mortality in women (HR=1.34, 95% CI 1.10-1.62, tallest vs. average women). In men, mortality risk decreased with increasing height, with shortest men tending to have higher (1.06, 0.94-1.19) and tallest men a lower (0.94, 0.77-1.14) risk compared with men of average height (p-trend 0.0001). Body height was associated with cancer mortality in women, such that tallest women had a higher risk of dying from cancer than women of average height (1.37, 1.02-1.84), but there was no such association in men (0.95, 0.69-1.30). In both sexes, height was not associated with cardiovascular mortality in a statistically significant manner. CONCLUSION: Our study does not support an inverse association of body height with all-cause mortality. On the contrary, our data suggests a higher overall risk in taller women, mainly driven by a positive association between body height and cancer mortality.

Multiple Score Comparison: a network meta-analysis approach to comparison and external validation of prognostic scores.

BACKGROUND: Prediction models and prognostic scores have been increasingly popular in both clinical practice and clinical research settings, for example to aid in risk-based decision making or control for confounding. In many medical fields, a large number of prognostic scores are available, but practitioners may find it difficult to choose between them due to lack of external validation as well as lack of comparisons between them. METHODS: Borrowing methodology from network meta-analysis, we describe an approach to Multiple Score Comparison meta-analysis (MSC) which permits concurrent external validation and comparisons of prognostic scores using individual patient data (IPD) arising from a large-scale international collaboration. We describe the challenges in adapting network meta-analysis to the MSC setting, for instance the need to explicitly include correlations between the scores on a cohort level, and how to deal with many multi-score studies. We propose first using IPD to make cohort-level aggregate discrimination or calibration scores, comparing all to a common comparator. Then, standard network meta-analysis techniques can be applied, taking care to consider correlation structures in cohorts with multiple scores. Transitivity, consistency and heterogeneity are also examined. RESULTS: We provide a clinical application, comparing prognostic scores for 3-year mortality in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease using data from a large-scale collaborative initiative. We focus on the discriminative properties of the prognostic scores. Our results show clear differences in performance, with ADO and eBODE showing higher discrimination with respect to mortality than other considered scores. The assumptions of transitivity and local and global consistency were not violated. Heterogeneity was small. CONCLUSIONS: We applied a network meta-analytic methodology to externally validate and concurrently compare the prognostic properties of clinical scores. Our large-scale external validation indicates that the scores with the best discriminative properties to predict 3 year mortality in patients with COPD are ADO and eBODE.