Biomarkers for Prediction of Alcohol-Related Liver Cirrhosis: A General Population-Based Swedish Study of 537,250 Individuals.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The study sought to examine which biomarkers have the best predictive capabilities for future alcohol-related liver cirrhosis (ARLC) in a general population setting. METHOD: This population-based cohort study includes approximately 35% of the inhabitants of Stockholm County who had left a blood sample at an outpatient visit in primary care or occupational health screening from 1985 to 1996. All subjects with a blood sample measurement of alanine aminotransferase and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) were included, exclusions were made for persons with known liver disease. We ascertained incident ARLC by linkage to Swedish national health registers between to the end of 2011. Associations between biomarkers and incident ARLC were analyzed with Cox regression models and discrimination was assessed using C-statistics. RESULTS: In all, 537,230 adult subjects were included. The mean age was 45 years and 53% were men. During a mean follow-up of 19.0 years, 2725 (0.51%) subjects developed ARLC. The biomarkers with the highest discrimination (C-index) for incident ARLC at 5 years were: AST (0.89), mean corpuscular volume (0.88), and γ-glutamyltransferase (0.81). Scoring systems including Fibrosis-4 (0.86) and the AST/alanine aminotransferase ratio (0.81) performed similarly well. The negative predictive value for ARLC was generally high (∼99.6%) across biomarkers, using routine clinical cutoffs to identify pathological values. However, positive predictive values were generally low (0.6%-15.9%). CONCLUSIONS: Biomarkers commonly used in primary care settings are highly associated with incident ARLC in the general population. Elevation of these commonly available biomarkers should prompt consideration of further investigation of a possible high level of alcohol consumption.

Surgical removal of tonsils and risk of COVID-19: a nested case-control study using data from UK Biobank and AMORIS Cohort.

BACKGROUND: To investigate the association between surgical removal of tonsils and risk of COVID-19 with different severity. METHODS: Through a nested case-control study during January 31st to December 31st 2020, including 58,888 participants of the UK Biobank, we investigated the association of tonsillectomy with the future risk of mild and severe COVID-19, using binomial logistic regression. We further examined the associations of such surgery with blood inflammatory, lipid and metabolic biomarkers to understand potential mechanisms. Finally, we replicated the analysis of severe COVID-19 in the Swedish AMORIS Cohort (n = 451,960). RESULTS: Tonsillectomy was associated with a lower risk of mild (odds ratio [95% confidence interval]: 0.80 [0.75-0.86]) and severe (0.87 [0.77-0.98]) COVID-19 in the UK Biobank. The associations did not differ substantially by sex, age, Townsend deprivation index, or polygenic risk score for critically ill COVID-19. Levels of blood inflammatory, lipid and metabolic biomarkers did, however, not differ greatly by history of surgical removal of tonsils. An inverse association between tonsillectomy and severe COVID-19 was also observed in the AMORIS Cohort, primarily among older individuals (> 70 years) and those with ≤ 12 years of education. CONCLUSIONS: Surgical removal of tonsils may be associated with a lower risk of COVID-19. This association is unlikely attributed to alterations in common blood inflammatory, lipid and metabolic biomarkers.

A Capture-Recapture-based Ascertainment Probability Weighting Method for Effect Estimation With Under-ascertained Outcomes.

Outcome under-ascertainment, characterized by the incomplete identification or reporting of cases, poses a substantial challenge in epidemiologic research. While capture-recapture methods can estimate unknown case numbers, their role in estimating exposure effects in observational studies is not well established. This paper presents an ascertainment probability weighting framework that integrates capture-recapture and propensity score weighting. We propose a nonparametric estimator of effects on binary outcomes that combines exposure propensity scores with data from two conditionally independent outcome measurements to simultaneously adjust for confounding and under-ascertainment. Demonstrating its practical application, we apply the method to estimate the relationship between health care work and coronavirus disease 2019 testing in a Swedish region. We find that ascertainment probability weighting greatly influences the estimated association compared to conventional inverse probability weighting, underscoring the importance of accounting for under-ascertainment in studies with limited outcome data coverage. We conclude with practical guidelines for the method's implementation, discussing its strengths, limitations, and suitable scenarios for application.

Kidney function, uric acid, and risk of atrial fibrillation: experience from the AMORIS cohort.

BACKGROUND: Uric acid closely relates to both kidney disease and atrial fibrillation (AF), yet the extent to which it influences the kidney-AF association remains uncertain. We examined the relationship between kidney function and risk of AF, accounting for uric acid levels. METHODS: A total of 308,509 individuals in the Swedish Apolipoprotein-Related Mortality Risk (AMORIS) cohort were included and their serum creatinine and uric acid were measured during 1985-1996. Ten-year incident AF was identified via linkage with the national registers. Glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (ml/min/1.73 m2) was calculated with the 2009 Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation. Hyperuricemia was defined as > 420 µmol/L for men and > 360 µmol/L for women. RESULTS: Over a mean follow-up of 9.4 years, 10,007 (3.2%) incident AF cases occurred. After adjusting for age, sex, cardiovascular diseases, total cholesterol, triglycerides, and glucose, individuals with low eGFR (< 30 and 30-59 ml/min/1.73 m2 ) had a higher risk of AF compared to those with normal eGFR (60-89) (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.72, 95% confidence interval (CI):1.29-2.30; HR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.03-1.18, respectively). After further adjusting for uric acid levels, the association disappeared (HR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.72-1.30; HR = 0.93, 95% CI: 0.86-1.00, respectively). When stratifying by hyperuricemia yes/no, eGFR < 30 ml/min/1.73 m2 was associated with higher AF risk in a small group of individuals without hyperuricemia (HR = 2.58, 95% CI: 1.64-4.07). CONCLUSION: Uric acid largely accounted for the relationship between eGFR and AF in this study. However, in individuals without hyperuricemia, eGFR in the lowest range (< 30 ml/min/1.73 m2) was still associated with increased risk of AF.

Sociodemographic differences in the response to changes in COVID-19 testing guidelines.

During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, Sweden emphasized voluntary guidelines over mandates. We exploited a rapid change and reversal of the Public Health Agency of Sweden's COVID-19 testing guidelines for vaccinated and recently infected individuals as a quasi-experiment to examine sociodemographic differences in the response to changes in pandemic guidelines. We analyzed daily polymerase chain reaction tests from 1 October 2021 to 15 December 2021, for vaccinated or recently infected adults (≥20 years; n = 1 596 321) from three Swedish regions (Stockholm, Örebro, and Dalarna). Using interrupted time series analysis, we estimated abrupt changes in testing rates at the two dates when the guidelines were changed (1 November and 22 November). Stratified analysis and meta-regression were employed to explore sociodemographic differences in the strength of the response to the guideline changes. Testing rates declined substantially when guideline against testing of vaccinated and recently infected individuals came into effect on 1 November [testing rate ratio: 0.50 (95% confidence interval, CI 0.41, 0.61)], and increased again from these lowered levels by a similar amount upon its reversal on 22 November [testing rate ratio: 2.19 (95% CI: 1.69, 2.85)]. Being Sweden-born, having higher household income, or higher education, were all associated with a stronger adherent response to the guideline changes. Adjusting for stratum-specific baseline testing rates and test-positivity did not influence the results. Our findings suggest that the population was responsive to the rapid changes in testing guidelines, but with clear sociodemographic differences in the strength of the response.

HbA1c trajectories over 3 years in people with type 2 diabetes starting second-line glucose-lowering therapy: The prospective global DISCOVER study.

AIM: To identify distinct HbA1c trajectories in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) starting second-line glucose-lowering therapy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: DISCOVER was a 3-year observational study of individuals with T2D beginning second-line glucose-lowering therapy. Data were collected at initiation of second-line treatment (baseline) and at 6, 12, 24 and 36 months. Latent class growth modelling was used to identify groups with distinct HbA1c trajectories. RESULTS: After exclusions, 9295 participants were assessed. Four distinct HbA1c trajectories were identified. Mean HbA1c levels decreased between baseline and 6 months in all groups; 72.4% of participants showed stable good levels of glycaemic control over the remainder of follow-up, 18.0% showed stable moderate levels of glycaemic control and 2.9% showed stable poor levels of glycaemic control. Only 6.7% of participants showed highly improved glycaemic control at month 6 and stable control over the rest of follow-up. For all groups, dual oral therapy use decreased over time, compensated for by the increasing use of other treatment regimens. Use of injectable agents increased over time in groups with moderate and poor glycaemic control. Logistic regression models suggested that participants from high-income countries were more probable to be in the stable good trajectory group. CONCLUSIONS: Most people receiving second-line glucose-lowering treatment in this global cohort achieved stable good or highly improved long-term glycaemic control. One-fifth of participants showed moderate or poor glycaemic control during follow-up. Further large-scale studies are required to characterize possible factors associated with patterns of glycaemic control to inform personalized diabetes treatment.

Lipid levels in midlife and risk of atrial fibrillation over 3 decades-Experience from the Swedish AMORIS cohort: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The role of cholesterol levels in the development of atrial fibrillation (AF) is still controversial. In addition, whether and to what extent apolipoproteins are associated with the risk of AF is rarely studied. In this study, we aimed to investigate the association between blood lipid levels in midlife and subsequent risk of new-onset AF. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This population-based study included 65,136 individuals aged 45 to 60 years without overt cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) from the Swedish Apolipoprotein-Related Mortality Risk (AMORIS) cohort. Lipids were measured in 1985 to 1996, and individuals were followed until December 31, 2019 for incident AF (i.e., study outcome). Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox regression, adjusting for age, sex, and socioeconomic status. Over a mean follow-up of 24.2 years (standard deviation 7.5, range 0.2 to 35.9), 13,871 (21.3%) incident AF cases occurred. Higher levels of total cholesterol (TC) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) were statistically significantly associated with a lower risk of AF during the first 5 years of follow-up (HR = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.41 to 0.99, p = 0.013; HR = 0.64, 95% CI: 0.45 to 0.92, p = 0.016), but not thereafter (HR ranging from 0.94 [95% CI: 0.89 to 1.00, p = 0.038] to 0.96 [95% CI: 0.77 to 1.19, p > 0.05]). Lower levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and apolipoprotein A-I (ApoA-I) and higher triglycerides (TG)/HDL-C ratio were statistically significantly associated with a higher risk of AF during the entire follow-up (HR ranging from 1.13 [95% CI: 1.07 to 1.19, p < 0.001] to 1.53 [95% CI: 1.12 to 2.00, p = 0.007]). Apolipoprotein B (ApoB)/ApoA-I ratio was not associated with AF risk. The observed associations were similar among those who developed incident heart failure (HF)/coronary heart disease (CHD) and those who did not. The main limitations of this study include lack of adjustments for lifestyle factors and high blood pressure leading to potential residual confounding. CONCLUSIONS: High TC and LDL-C in midlife was associated with a lower risk of AF, but this association was present only within 5 years from lipid measurement and not thereafter. On the contrary, low HDL-C and ApoA-I and high TG/HDL-C ratio were associated with an increased risk of AF over almost 35 years of follow-up. ApoB/ApoA-I ratio was not associated with AF risk.

Incidence rates and predictors of microvascular and macrovascular complications in patients with type 2 diabetes: Results from the longitudinal global discover study.

BACKGROUND: Micro- and macrovascular complications are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D). We sought to understand the global incidence rates and predictors of these complications. METHODS: We examined the incidence of vascular complications over 3 years of follow-up in the DISCOVER study-a global, observational study of people with T2D initiating second-line glucose-lowering therapy. Hierarchical Cox proportional hazards regression models examined factors associated with development of micro- and macrovascular complications during follow-up. RESULTS: Among 11,357 people with T2D from 33 countries (mean age 56.9 ± 11.7 years, T2D duration 5.7 ± 5.1 years, HbA1c 8.4 ± 1.7%), 19.0% had a microvascular complication at enrolment (most commonly neuropathy), and 13.2% had a macrovascular complication (most commonly coronary disease). Over 3 years of follow-up, 16.0% developed an incident microvascular complication, and 6.6% had an incident macrovascular complication. At the end of 3 years of follow-up, 31.5% of patients had at least one microvascular complication, and 16.6% had at least one macrovascular complication. Higher HbA1c and smoking were associated with greater risk of both incident micro- and macrovascular complications. Known macrovascular complications at baseline was the strongest predictor for development of new microvascular complications (HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.21 -1.61) and new macrovascular complications (HR 3.39, 95% CI 2.84 -4.06). CONCLUSIONS: In this global study, both the prevalence and 3-year incidence of vascular complications were high in patients with relatively short T2D duration, highlighting the need for early risk-factor modification.

Long-term risk of a major cardiovascular event by apoB, apoA-1, and the apoB/apoA-1 ratio-Experience from the Swedish AMORIS cohort: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Elevated apolipoprotein B (apoB) and elevated apoB/apoA-1 ratio increase the risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke, whereas high apoA-1 is protective. We study how these apolipoproteins are associated with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), whether apoA-1 contributes to this association, and whether abnormal values occur decades before such events develop. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In the Swedish AMORIS (Apolipoprotein-related MOrtality RISk) cohort study, 137,100 men and women aged 25-84 years were followed an average 17.8 years. ApoB, apoA-1, and the apoB/apoA-1 ratio were analysed in relation to MACEs (non-fatal MI, stroke, and cardiovascular [CV] mortality), yielding 22,473 events. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using Cox regression. Kaplan-Meier estimates were used to investigate the relationship of MACEs with increasing quintiles of the apoB/apoA-1 ratio in all age groups for both sexes. In nested case-control analyses, cases were randomly matched to age- and sex-matched controls, yielding population trajectories for apolipoproteins. Increased level of apoB and increased apoB/apoA-1 ratio were associated with risk of MACE and all clinical sub-components in both men and women across all ages (10th versus first decile in both sexes combined: HR 1.7 for MACE and 2.7 for non-fatal MI). Decreased values of apoA-1 potentiated the impact of apoB at all levels of apoB (on average across apoB range: 40% increase in HR for MACE and 72% increase in HR for non-fatal MI), indicating that the apoB/apoA-1 ratio covers a broader range of persons with dyslipidaemia at risk than apoB alone. In both men and women, MACEs occurred earlier on average for each increasing quintile of the apoB/apoA-1 ratio. Individuals with the highest levels of apoB/apoA-1 ratio experienced CV events on average several years earlier than those with lower ratios. Higher apoB/apoA-1 ratio in cases of MACE versus controls was seen already about 20 years before the event. A limitation of this study was that adjustment for tobacco smoking and hypertension was only possible in a small validation study. CONCLUSIONS: An imbalance between apoB and apoA-1 resulting in an increased apoB/apoA-1 ratio is strongly associated with the outcome MACE and its sub-components, in both men and women of all ages. An increased apoB/apoA-1 ratio already 2 decades before events calls for early recognition and primary prevention. Simple evidence-based cut values should be considered in future cardiovascular guidelines.

Association between serum markers of the humoral immune system and inflammation in the Swedish AMORIS study.

BACKGROUND: Although the onset of inflammatory cascades may profoundly influence the nature of antibody responses, the interplay between inflammatory and humoral (antibody) immune markers remains unclear. Thus, we explored the reciprocity between the humoral immune system and inflammation and assessed how external socio-demographic factors may influence these interactions. From the AMORIS cohort, 5513 individuals were identified with baseline measurements of serum humoral immune [immunoglobulin G, A & M (IgG, IgA, IgM)] and inflammation (C-reactive protein (CRP), albumin, haptoglobin, white blood cells (WBC), iron and total iron-binding capacity) markers measured on the same day. Correlation analysis, principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering were used to evaluate biomarkers correlation, variation and associations. Multivariate analysis of variance was used to assess associations between biomarkers and educational level, socio-economic status, sex and age. RESULTS: Frequently used serum markers for inflammation, CRP, haptoglobin and white blood cells, correlated together. Hierarchical clustering and principal component analysis confirmed the interaction between these main biological responses, showing an acute response component (CRP, Haptoglobin, WBC, IgM) and adaptive response component (Albumin, Iron, TIBC, IgA, IgG). A socioeconomic gradient associated with worse health outcomes was observed, specifically low educational level, older age and male sex were associated with serum levels that indicated infection and inflammation. CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate that serum markers of the humoral immune system and inflammation closely interact in response to infection or inflammation. Clustering analysis presented two main immune response components: an acute and an adaptive response, comprising markers of both biological pathways. Future studies should shift from single internal marker assessment to multiple humoral and inflammation serum markers combined, when assessing risk of clinical outcomes such as cancer.

Ability of Noninvasive Scoring Systems to Identify Individuals in the Population at Risk for Severe Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Noninvasive scoring systems are used to identify persons with advanced liver fibrosis. We investigated the ability of scoring systems to identify individuals in the general population at risk for future liver-related events. METHODS: We collected data from the Swedish Apolipoprotein Mortality Risk cohort on persons 35 to 79 years old who had blood samples collected from 1985 through 1996. We collected APRI (n = 127,302), BARD (n = 75,303), FIB-4 (n = 126,941), Forns (n = 122,419), and the nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) fibrosis scores (NFS, n = 13,160). We ascertained incident cases of cirrhosis or complications by linking Swedish health data registers. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for severe liver disease at 5, 10, and a maximum follow-up time of 27 years. The predictive ability of the scores was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve and C-statistics analyses. Our specific aims were to investigate the predictive capabilities of scoring systems for fatal and nonfatal liver disease, determine which scoring system has the highest level of accuracy, and investigate the predictive abilities of the scoring systems in persons with a higher probability of NAFLD at baseline. RESULTS: A similar proportion of individuals evaluated by each scoring system developed cirrhosis or complications thereof (1.0%-1.4%). The incidence of any outcome was increased in intermediate- and high-risk groups compared with low-risk groups, with HRs at 10 years in the high-risk group ranging from 1.67 for the BARD score to 45.9 for the APRI score. The predictive abilities of all scoring systems decreased with time and were higher in men. All scoring systems were more accurate in persons with risk factors for NAFLD at baseline, with AUROCs reaching 0.83. CONCLUSIONS: Higher scores from noninvasive scoring systems to evaluate fibrosis are associated with an increased risk of cirrhosis in a general population, but their predictive ability is modest. Performance was better when patients were followed for shorter time periods and in persons with a higher risk of NAFLD, with AUROC values reaching 0.83. New scoring systems are needed to evaluate risk of fibrosis in the general population and in primary care.

Impaired fasting glucose: a risk factor for atrial fibrillation and heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Dysglycaemia is associated with overall cardiovascular disease even at prediabetes levels. The aim of this study was to explore the association between glucose levels and future risk of developing atrial fibrillation and heart failure, respectively. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study subjects from the Swedish AMORIS-cohort with fasting glucose from health examinations 1985-1996 without previous cardiovascular disease (N = 294,057) were followed to 31 December 2011 for incident atrial fibrillation or heart failure. Cox proportional hazard models with attained age as timescale and adjustments for sex, cholesterol, triglycerides, and socioeconomic status were used to estimate hazard ratios by glucose categorized groups (normal glucose 3.9-6.0 mmol/L, impaired fasting glucose; 6.1-6.9 mmol/L, undiagnosed diabetes ≥ 7.0 mmol/L, and diagnosed diabetes). RESULTS: During a mean follow-up time of 19.1 years 28,233 individuals developed atrial fibrillation and 25,604 developed heart failure. The HR for atrial fibrillation was 1.19 (95% confidence interval 1.13-1.26) for impaired fasting glucose, 1.23 (1.15-1.32) for undiagnosed diabetes and 1.30 (1.21-1.41) for diagnosed diabetes. Corresponding figures for heart failure were; 1.40 (1.33-1.48), 2.11 (1.99-2.23), 2.22 (2.08-2.36) respectively. In a subset with BMI data (19%), these associations were attenuated and for atrial fibrillation only remained statistically significant among subjects with diagnosed diabetes (HR 1.25; 1.02-1.53). CONCLUSIONS: Fasting glucose at prediabetes levels is associated with development of atrial fibrillation and heart failure. To some extent increased BMI may drive this association.

Lipids, Apolipoproteins, and the Risk of Parkinson Disease.

RATIONALE: A complete picture of the associations of the most common lipid fractions, including total cholesterol (TC), LDL-C (low-density lipoprotein cholesterol), HDL-C (high-density lipoprotein cholesterol), triglycerides, and apolipoproteins, with the risk of Parkinson disease (PD), is lacking. OBJECTIVE: To assess the associations of lipids and apolipoproteins with the future risk of PD. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the AMORIS (Apolipoprotein-Related Mortality Risk) Study, we enrolled ≈600 000 participants during 1985 to 1996 in Stockholm, Sweden, with repeated measurements of TC, LDL-C, HDL-C, triglycerides, ApoB (apolipoprotein B), and ApoA-I (apolipoprotein A-I). The cohort was followed until the end of 2011, and incident cases of PD were identified through the Swedish Patient Register. We first used Cox models to estimate the associations of these biomarkers with later risk of PD. We further applied a Mendelian randomization analysis for TC, LDL-C, and triglycerides using the GWAS (Genome-wide association study) summary statistics from the public PD GWAS data and 23andMe PD cohorts with >800 000 individuals. One SD increase of TC was associated with a lower hazard of PD (hazard ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.87-0.94). Similar associations were observed for LDL-C (hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.88-0.98), triglycerides (hazard ratio, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.90-0.97), and ApoB (hazard ratio, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.85-0.97). A clear dose-response relation was also noted when using these biomarkers as categorical variables. A causal inverse association of TC, LDL-C, and triglycerides with PD risk was further suggested by the Mendelian randomization analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings reinforce that higher levels of TC, LDL-C, and triglycerides are associated with a lower future risk of PD and further suggest that these associations may be causal. The findings for ApoB in relation to PD risk are novel, and whether such association is causal needs to be examined.

Prevalence and progression of chronic kidney disease among patients with type 2 diabetes: Insights from the DISCOVER study.

We report the prevalence and change in severity of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in DISCOVER, a global, 3-year, prospective, observational study of patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) initiating second-line glucose-lowering therapy. CKD stages were defined according to estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Overall, 7843 patients from 35 countries had a baseline serum creatinine measurement. Of these (56.7% male; mean age: 58.1 years; mean eGFR: 87.5 mL/min/1.73 m2 ), baseline prevalence estimates for stage 0-1, 2, 3 and 4-5 CKD were 51.4%, 37.7%, 9.4% and 1.4%, respectively. A total of 5819 patients (74.2%) also had at least one follow-up serum creatinine measurement (median time between measurements: 2.9 years, interquartile range: 1.9-3.0 years). Mean eGFR decreased slightly to 85.7 mL/min/1.73 m2 over follow-up. CKD progression (increase of ≥1 stage) occurred in 15.7% of patients, and regression (decrease of ≥1 stage) in 12.0%. In summary, a substantial proportion of patients with T2D developed CKD or had CKD progression after the initiation of second-line therapy. Renal function should be regularly monitored in these patients, to ensure early CKD diagnosis and treatment.

Global patterns of comprehensive cardiovascular risk factor control in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: Insights from the DISCOVER study.

AIM: To investigate global patterns of cardiovascular risk factor control in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D). METHODS: DISCOVER is an international, observational cohort study of patients with T2D beginning second-line glucose-lowering therapy. Risk factor management was examined among eligible patients (ie, those with the risk factor) at study baseline. Inter-country variability was estimated using median odds ratios (MORs). RESULTS: Among 14 343 patients with T2D from 34 countries, the mean age was 57.4 ± 12.0 years and the median (interquartile range) duration of T2D was 4.2 (2.0-8.0) years; 11.8% had documented atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Among eligible patients, blood pressure was controlled in 67.5% (9284/13756), statins were prescribed in 43.7% (5775/13208), angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin II receptor blockers were prescribed in 55.6% (5292/9512), aspirin was prescribed in 53.3% of those with established ASCVD (876/1645), and 84.4% (12 102/14343) were non-smoking. Only 21.5% of patients (3088/14343) had optimal risk factor management (defined as control of all eligible measures), with wide inter-country variability (10%-44%), even after adjusting for patient and site differences (MOR 1.47, 95% confidence interval 1.24-1.66). CONCLUSION: Globally, comprehensive control of ASCVD risk factors is not being achieved in most patients, with wide variability among countries unaccounted for by patient and site differences. Better country-specific strategies are needed to implement comprehensive cardiovascular risk factor control consistently in patients with T2D to improve long-term outcomes.

Elevated Apolipoprotein B/A-1 Ratio is Associated With an Increased Risk of Aortic Stenosis: Experience From the AMORIS Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Lipoproteins are associated with acquired aortic valve stenosis (AS). This study investigated whether an elevated apolipoprotein (apo)B/apoA-1 ratio was associated with an increased risk of AS and if this association was influenced by a history of a major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) defined as stroke, myocardial infarction or revascularisation. METHODS: A study was undertaken of 131,816 individuals, aged ≥30 years, from the Swedish Apolipoprotein MOrtality RISk (AMORIS) cohort, with measurements of apolipoproteins B and A-1 at health examinations during 1985-1996. RESULTS: There were fewer women and the average age was 4 years older in the highest apoB/apoA-1 quintile compared with the lowest. Being overweight, having reduced renal function and diabetes mellitus were more frequent. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride and apolipoprotein B levels were higher in the top apoB/apoA-1 quintile. During follow-up through 2011, non-rheumatic aortic valve disease was diagnosed in 2,999 individuals (2.3%). Using ICD-10 codes from 1997, AS was identified in 1,887 patients. An elevated apoB/apoA-1 ratio was associated with an increased incidence of aortic valve disease after multivariable adjustment [hazard ratio (HR) (95% CI) for the fifth vs first quintile of 1.28 (1.09-1.50)]. Restricting the analyses to incident AS during 1997-2011 yielded an HR of 1.41 (1.15-1.72). This increased incidence was primarily seen in women and individuals aged ≥65 years. History of MACE did not influence these associations. CONCLUSIONS: An elevated apoB/apoA-1 ratio was associated with an increased incidence of AS, particularly in women and individuals aged ≥65 years, regardless of previous MACE.

Repeated FIB-4 measurements can help identify individuals at risk of severe liver disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: It is unclear whether the identification of individuals at risk of cirrhosis using non-invasive tests can be improved by repeated measurements. Herein, we tested whether repeated measurements of fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) could improve the identification of individuals at risk of severe liver disease. METHODS: Data were derived from the population-based Swedish AMORIS cohort with baseline examinations from 1985-1996. FIB-4 was calculated at 2 time points within 5 years. Thereafter, we associated changes in FIB-4 with outcomes. Incident severe liver disease data was ascertained through linkage to Swedish national registers until 2011. Hazard ratios (HRs) and CIs for outcomes were calculated using Cox regression. RESULTS: Of 126,942 individuals with available FIB-4 data, 40,729 (32.1%) underwent a second test within 5 years (mean interval 2.4 years). During 613,376 person-years of follow-up, 581 severe liver disease events were documented (0.95/1,000 person-years). An increase of 1 unit in FIB-4 was associated with an elevated risk of severe liver disease (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.81; 95% CI 1.67-1.96). Transitioning from a low- or intermediate- to a high-risk group was associated with an increased risk of severe liver disease compared with those consistently in the low-risk group (aHR 7.99 and 8.64, respectively). A particularly increased risk of severe liver disease was found in individuals defined as high risk at both tests (aHR 17.04; 95% CI 11.67-24.88). However, almost half of all events occurred in those consistently in the low-risk group. CONCLUSIONS: Repeated testing of FIB-4 within 5 years improves the identification of individuals at an increased risk of severe liver disease in the general population. However, the sensitivity is comparatively low and improved tests are needed for screening in a general population or primary care setting. LAY SUMMARY: The fibrosis-4 scoring system is often used to estimate the risk of advanced fibrosis in liver diseases. Herein, we found that changes in this score over time are associated with the risk of future severe liver disease in a population-based cohort. However, even if the prediction is improved by repeated testing, the overall ability of the score to predict future events is relatively low.

Peripheral immune biomarkers and neurodegenerative diseases: A prospective cohort study with 20 years of follow-up.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the associations of several blood immune biomarkers with the future risks of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and Parkinson disease in a prospective cohort study with 20 years of follow-up. METHODS: The Swedish Apolipoprotein-Related Mortality Risk study is a longitudinal cohort study including 812,073 participants with repeated blood biomarker measurements between 1985 and 1996 and a follow-up until 2011. Using a Cox model, we first estimated hazard ratios of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and Parkinson disease in relation to leukocytes, immunoglobulin G, haptoglobin, and uric acid. We further described the temporal changes of these biomarkers during the 20 years prior to the diagnosis of these diseases. RESULTS: A total of 585 incident cases of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and 3,769 incident cases of Parkinson disease were identified during the follow-up. Increasing concentrations of leukocytes, haptoglobin, and uric acid were associated with a lower risk of Parkinson disease. No statistically significant association was, however, noted between the studied biomarkers and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. Parkinson disease patients appeared to have lower levels of leukocytes and haptoglobin between 20 and 10 years before diagnosis and lower levels of uric acid during the 20 years before diagnosis, compared to controls, although statistically significant differences were only noted during parts of the respective time intervals after multivariable adjustment. No clear differences were noted between patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and controls. INTERPRETATION: If verified in studies of independent populations, our findings may suggest a different role of systemic inflammation on the risk of Parkinson disease compared to amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. ANN NEUROL 2019;86:913-926.

Glycaemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes initiating second-line therapy: Results from the global DISCOVER study programme.

AIM: To assess glycaemic control and factors associated with poor glycaemic control at initiation of second-line therapy in the DISCOVER programme. MATERIALS AND METHODS: DISCOVER (NCT02322762 and NCT02226822) comprises two similar prospective observational studies of 15 992 people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) initiating second-line glucose-lowering therapy in 38 countries across six regions (Africa, Americas, South-East Asia, Eastern Mediterranean, Europe and Western Pacific). Data were collected using a standardized case report form. Glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) levels were measured according to standard clinical practice in each country, and factors associated with poor glycaemic control (HbA1c >8.0%) were evaluated using hierarchical regression models. RESULTS: HbA1c levels were available for 80.9% of patients (across-region range [ARR] 57.5%-97.5%); 92.2% (ARR 59.2%-99.1%) of patients had either HbA1c or fasting plasma glucose levels available. The mean HbA1c was 8.3% (ARR 7.9%-8.7%). In total, 26.7% of patients had an HbA1c level ≥9.0%, with the highest proportions in South-East Asia (35.6%). Factors associated with having HbA1c >8.0% at initiation of second-line therapy included low education level, low country income, and longer time since T2D diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: The poor levels of glycaemic control at initiation of second-line therapy suggest that intensification of glucose-lowering treatment is delayed in many patients with T2D. In some countries, HbA1c levels are not routinely measured. These findings highlight an urgent need for interventions to improve monitoring and management of glycaemic control worldwide, particularly in lower-middle- and upper-middle-income countries.

A Swedish primary healthcare prevention programme focusing on promotion of physical activity and a healthy lifestyle reduced cardiovascular events and mortality: 22-year follow-up of 5761 study participants and a reference group.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate long-term risk of first cardiovascular (CV) events, CV deaths and all-cause deaths in community-dwelling participants of a cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention programme delivered in a primary care setting. METHODS: Individuals who visited a primary healthcare service in Sollentuna (Sweden) and agreed to participate in the programme between 1988 and 1993 were followed. They had at least one CV risk factor but no prior myocardial infarction and received support to increase physical activity using the programme Physical Activity on Prescription and to adopt health-promoting behaviours including cooking classes, weight reduction, smoking cessation and stress management. Participants (n=5761) were compared with a randomly selected, propensity score-matched reference group from the general population in Stockholm County (n=34 556). All individuals were followed in Swedish registers until December 2011. RESULTS: In the intervention group and the reference group there were 698 (12.1%) and 4647 (13.4%) first CV events, 308 (5.3%) and 2261 (6.5%) CV deaths, and 919 (16.5%) and 6405 (18.5%) all-cause deaths, respectively, during a mean follow-up of 22 years. The HR (95% CI) in the intervention group compared with the reference group was 0.88 (0.81 to 0.95) for first CV events, 0.79 (0.70 to 0.89) for CV deaths and 0.83 (0.78 to 0.89) for all-cause deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Participation in a CVD prevention programme in primary healthcare focusing on promotion of physical activity and healthy lifestyle was associated with lower risk of CV events (12%), CV deaths (21%) and all-cause deaths (17%) after two decades. Promoting physical activity and healthy living in the primary healthcare setting may prevent CVD.