RESUMEN
Systematic reviews and meta-analyses are essential tools in contemporary evidence-based medicine, synthesizing evidence from various sources to better inform clinical decision-making. However, the conclusions from different meta-analyses on the same topic can be discrepant, which has raised concerns about their reliability. One reason is that the result of a meta-analysis is sensitive to factors such as study inclusion/exclusion criteria and model assumptions. The arm-based meta-analysis model is growing in importance due to its advantage of including single-arm studies and historical controls with estimation efficiency and its flexibility in drawing conclusions with both marginal and conditional effect measures. Despite its benefits, the inference may heavily depend on the heterogeneity parameters that reflect design and model assumptions. This article aims to evaluate the robustness of meta-analyses using the arm-based model within a Bayesian framework. Specifically, we develop a tipping point analysis of the between-arm correlation parameter to assess the robustness of meta-analysis results. Additionally, we introduce some visualization tools to intuitively display its impact on meta-analysis results. We demonstrate the application of these tools in three real-world meta-analyses, one of which includes single-arm studies.
Asunto(s)
Teorema de Bayes , Medicina Basada en la Evidencia , Metaanálisis como Asunto , Humanos , Medicina Basada en la Evidencia/métodos , Medicina Basada en la Evidencia/normas , Medicina Basada en la Evidencia/estadística & datos numéricos , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , Revisiones Sistemáticas como Asunto/métodos , Modelos Estadísticos , AlgoritmosRESUMEN
About 1 in 9 older adults over 65 has Alzheimer's disease (AD), many of whom also have multiple other chronic conditions such as hypertension and diabetes, necessitating careful monitoring through laboratory tests. Understanding the patterns of laboratory tests in this population aids our understanding and management of these chronic conditions along with AD. In this study, we used an unimodal cosinor model to assess the seasonality of lab tests using electronic health record (EHR) data from 34,303 AD patients from the OneFlorida+ Clinical Research Consortium. We observed significant seasonal fluctuations-higher in winter in lab tests such as glucose, neutrophils per 100 white blood cells (WBC), and WBC. Notably, certain leukocyte types like eosinophils, lymphocytes, and monocytes are elevated during summer, likely reflecting seasonal respiratory diseases and allergens. Seasonality is more pronounced in older patients and varies by gender. Our findings suggest that recognizing these patterns and adjusting reference intervals for seasonality would allow healthcare providers to enhance diagnostic precision, tailor care, and potentially improve patient outcomes.