Large-scale phenotyping of patients with long COVID post-hospitalization reveals mechanistic subtypes of disease.

One in ten severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infections result in prolonged symptoms termed long coronavirus disease (COVID), yet disease phenotypes and mechanisms are poorly understood1. Here we profiled 368 plasma proteins in 657 participants ≥3 months following hospitalization. Of these, 426 had at least one long COVID symptom and 233 had fully recovered. Elevated markers of myeloid inflammation and complement activation were associated with long COVID. IL-1R2, MATN2 and COLEC12 were associated with cardiorespiratory symptoms, fatigue and anxiety/depression; MATN2, CSF3 and C1QA were elevated in gastrointestinal symptoms and C1QA was elevated in cognitive impairment. Additional markers of alterations in nerve tissue repair (SPON-1 and NFASC) were elevated in those with cognitive impairment and SCG3, suggestive of brain-gut axis disturbance, was elevated in gastrointestinal symptoms. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) was persistently elevated in some individuals with long COVID, but virus was not detected in sputum. Analysis of inflammatory markers in nasal fluids showed no association with symptoms. Our study aimed to understand inflammatory processes that underlie long COVID and was not designed for biomarker discovery. Our findings suggest that specific inflammatory pathways related to tissue damage are implicated in subtypes of long COVID, which might be targeted in future therapeutic trials.

Changes in hospital mortality in patients with cancer during the COVID-19 pandemic (ISARIC-CCP-UK): a prospective, multicentre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Patients with cancer are at greater risk of dying from COVID-19 than many other patient groups. However, how this risk evolved during the pandemic remains unclear. We aimed to determine, on the basis of the UK national pandemic protocol, how factors influencing hospital mortality from COVID-19 could differentially affect patients undergoing cancer treatment. We also examined changes in hospital mortality and escalation of care in patients on cancer treatment during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study of patients aged older than 19 years and admitted to 306 health-care facilities in the UK with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, who were enrolled in the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol (CCP) across the UK from April 23, 2020, to Feb 28, 2022; this analysis included all patients in the complete dataset when the study closed. The primary outcome was 30-day in-hospital mortality, comparing patients on cancer treatment and those without cancer. The study was approved by the South Central-Oxford C Research Ethics Committee in England (Ref: 13/SC/0149) and the Scotland A Research Ethics Committee (Ref 20/SS/0028), and is registered on the ISRCTN Registry (ISRCTN66726260). FINDINGS: 177 871 eligible adult patients either with no history of cancer (n=171 303) or on cancer treatment (n=6568) were enrolled; 93 205 (52·4%) were male, 84 418 (47·5%) were female, and in 248 (13·9%) sex or gender details were not specified or data were missing. Patients were followed up for a median of 13 (IQR 6-21) days. Of the 6568 patients receiving cancer treatment, 2080 (31·7%) died at 30 days, compared with 30 901 (18·0%) of 171 303 patients without cancer. Patients aged younger than 50 years on cancer treatment had the highest age-adjusted relative risk (hazard ratio [HR] 5·2 [95% CI 4·0-6·6], p<0·0001; vs 50-69 years 2·4 [2·2-2·6], p<0·0001; 70-79 years 1·8 [1·6-2·0], p<0·0001; and >80 years 1·5 [1·3-1·6], p<0·0001) but a lower absolute risk (51 [6·7%] of 763 patients <50 years died compared with 459 [30·2%] of 1522 patients aged >80 years). In-hospital mortality decreased for all patients during the pandemic but was higher for patients on cancer treatment than for those without cancer throughout the study period. INTERPRETATION: People with cancer have a higher risk of mortality from COVID-19 than those without cancer. Patients younger than 50 years with cancer treatment have the highest relative risk of death. Continued action is needed to mitigate the poor outcomes in patients with cancer, such as through optimising vaccination, long-acting passive immunisation, and early access to therapeutics. These findings underscore the importance of the ISARIC-WHO pandemic preparedness initiative. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research and the Medical Research Council.

Long-term Outcomes following Resection of Adenocarcinoma Arising from Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm (A-IPMN) versus Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma (PDAC): A Propensity-score Matched Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the present study was to compare long-term post-resection oncological outcomes between A-IPMN and PDAC. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Knowledge of long term oncological outcomes (e.g recurrence and survival data) comparing between adenocarcinoma arising from intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (A-IPMN) and pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is scarce. METHODS: Patients undergoing pancreatic resection (2010-2020) for A-IPMN were identified retrospectively from 18 academic pancreatic centres and compared with PDAC patients from the same time-period. Propensity-score matching (PSM) was performed and survival and recurrence were compared between A-IPMN and PDAC. RESULTS: 459 A-IPMN patients (median age,70; M:F,250:209) were compared with 476 PDAC patients (median age,69; M:F,262:214). A-IPMN patients had lower T-stage, lymphovascular invasion (51.4%vs. 75.6%), perineural invasion (55.8%vs. 71.2%), lymph node positivity (47.3vs. 72.3%) and R1 resection (38.6%vs. 56.3%) compared to PDAC(P<0.001). The median survival and time-to-recurrence for A-IPMN versus PDAC were 39.0 versus19.5months (P<0.001) and 33.1 versus 14.8months (P<0.001), respectively (median follow-up,78 vs.73 months). Ten-year overall survival for A-IPMN was 34.6%(27/78) and PDAC was 9%(6/67). A-IPMN had higher rates of peritoneal (23.0 vs. 9.1%, P<0.001) and lung recurrence (27.8% vs. 15.6%, P<0.001) but lower rates of locoregional recurrence (39.7% vs. 57.8%; P<0.001). Matched analysis demonstrated inferior overall survival (P=0.005), inferior disease-free survival (P=0.003) and higher locoregional recurrence (P<0.001) in PDAC compared to A-IPMN but no significant difference in systemic recurrence rates (P=0.695). CONCLUSIONS: PDACs have inferior survival and higher recurrence rates compared to A-IPMN in matched cohorts. Locoregional recurrence is higher in PDAC but systemic recurrence rates are comparable and constituted by their own distinctive site-specific recurrence patterns.

Precursor Epithelial Subtypes of Adenocarcinoma Arising from Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms (A-IPMN): Clinicopathological Features, Recurrence and Response to Adjuvant Chemotherapy.

BACKGROUND: The clinico-oncological outcomes of precursor epithelial subtypes of adenocarcinoma arising from intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (A-IPMN) are limited to small cohort studies. Differences in recurrence patterns and response to adjuvant chemotherapy between A-IPMN subtypes are unknown. METHODS: Clincopathological features, recurrence patterns and long-term outcomes of patients undergoing pancreatic resection (2010-2020) for A-IPMN were reported from 18 academic pancreatic centres worldwide. Precursor epithelial subtype groups were compared using uni- and multivariate analysis. RESULTS: In total, 297 patients were included (median age, 70 years; male, 78.9%), including 54 (18.2%) gastric, 111 (37.3%) pancreatobiliary, 80 (26.9%) intestinal and 52 (17.5%) mixed subtypes. Gastric, pancreaticobiliary and mixed subtypes had comparable clinicopathological features, yet the outcomes were significantly less favourable than the intestinal subtype. The median time to recurrence in gastric, pancreatobiliary, intestinal and mixed subtypes were 32, 30, 61 and 33 months. Gastric and pancreatobiliary subtypes had worse overall recurrence (p = 0.048 and p = 0.049, respectively) compared with the intestinal subtype but gastric and pancreatobiliary subtypes had comparable outcomes. Adjuvant chemotherapy was associated with improved survival in the pancreatobiliary subtype (p = 0.049) but not gastric (p = 0.992), intestinal (p = 0.852) or mixed subtypes (p = 0.723). In multivariate survival analysis, adjuvant chemotherapy was associated with a lower likelihood of death in pancreatobiliary subtype, albeit with borderline significance [hazard ratio (HR) 0.56; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.31-1.01; p = 0.058]. CONCLUSIONS: Gastric, pancreatobiliary and mixed subtypes have comparable recurrence and survival outcomes, which are inferior to the more indolent intestinal subtype. Pancreatobiliary subtype may respond to adjuvant chemotherapy and further research is warranted to determine the most appropriate adjuvant chemotherapy regimens for each subtype.

Adjuvant chemotherapy for adenocarcinoma arising from intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasia: multicentre ADENO-IPMN study.

BACKGROUND: The clinical impact of adjuvant chemotherapy after resection for adenocarcinoma arising from intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasia is unclear. The aim of this study was to identify factors related to receipt of adjuvant chemotherapy and its impact on recurrence and survival. METHODS: This was a multicentre retrospective study of patients undergoing pancreatic resection for adenocarcinoma arising from intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasia between January 2010 and December 2020 at 18 centres. Recurrence and survival outcomes for patients who did and did not receive adjuvant chemotherapy were compared using propensity score matching. RESULTS: Of 459 patients who underwent pancreatic resection, 275 (59.9%) received adjuvant chemotherapy (gemcitabine 51.3%, gemcitabine-capecitabine 21.8%, FOLFIRINOX 8.0%, other 18.9%). Median follow-up was 78 months. The overall recurrence rate was 45.5% and the median time to recurrence was 33 months. In univariable analysis in the matched cohort, adjuvant chemotherapy was not associated with reduced overall (P = 0.713), locoregional (P = 0.283) or systemic (P = 0.592) recurrence, disease-free survival (P = 0.284) or overall survival (P = 0.455). Adjuvant chemotherapy was not associated with reduced site-specific recurrence. In multivariable analysis, there was no association between adjuvant chemotherapy and overall recurrence (HR 0.89, 95% c.i. 0.57 to 1.40), disease-free survival (HR 0.86, 0.59 to 1.30) or overall survival (HR 0.77, 0.50 to 1.20). Adjuvant chemotherapy was not associated with reduced recurrence in any high-risk subgroup (for example, lymph node-positive, higher AJCC stage, poor differentiation). No particular chemotherapy regimen resulted in superior outcomes. CONCLUSION: Chemotherapy following resection of adenocarcinoma arising from intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasia does not appear to influence recurrence rates, recurrence patterns or survival.

Inequities in global cancer surgery: Challenges and solutions.

The disparity in access to and quality of surgical cancer care between high and low resource settings impacts immediate and long-term oncological outcomes. With cancer incidence and mortality set to increase rapidly in the next few decades, we examine the factors leading to inequities in global cancer surgery, and look at potential solutions to overcome these challenges.

Preoperative nutrition therapy in people undergoing gastrointestinal surgery.

BACKGROUND: Poor preoperative nutritional status has been consistently linked to an increase in postoperative complications and worse surgical outcomes. We updated a review first published in 2012. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of preoperative nutritional therapy compared to usual care in people undergoing gastrointestinal surgery. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, Embase, three other databases and two trial registries on 28 March 2023. We searched reference lists of included studies. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of people undergoing gastrointestinal surgery and receiving preoperative nutritional therapy, including parenteral nutrition, enteral nutrition or oral nutrition supplements, compared to usual care. We only included nutritional therapy that contained macronutrients (protein, carbohydrate and fat) and micronutrients, and excluded studies that evaluated single nutrients. We included studies regardless of the nutritional status of participants, that is, well-nourished participants, participants at risk of malnutrition, or mixed populations. We excluded studies in people undergoing pancreatic and liver surgery. Our primary outcomes were non-infectious complications, infectious complications and length of hospital stay. Our secondary outcomes were nutritional aspects, quality of life, change in macronutrient intake, biochemical parameters, 30-day perioperative mortality and adverse effects. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We used standard Cochrane methodology. We assessed risk of bias using the RoB 1 tool and applied the GRADE criteria to assess the certainty of evidence. MAIN RESULTS: We included 16 RCTs reporting 19 comparisons (2164 participants). Seven studies were new for this update. Participants' ages ranged from 21 to 79 years, and 62% were men. Three RCTs used parenteral nutrition, two used enteral nutrition, eight used immune-enhancing nutrition and six used standard oral nutrition supplements. All studies included mixed groups of well-nourished and malnourished participants; they used different methods to identify malnutrition and reported this in different ways. Not all the included studies were conducted within an Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS) programme, which is now current clinical practice in most hospitals undertaking GI surgery. We were concerned about risk of bias in all the studies and 14 studies were at high risk of bias due to lack of blinding. We are uncertain if parenteral nutrition has any effect on the number of participants who had a non-infectious complication (risk ratio (RR) 0.61, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.36 to 1.02; 3 RCTs, 260 participants; very low-certainty evidence); infectious complication (RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.53 to 1.80; 3 RCTs, 260 participants; very low-certainty evidence) or length of hospital stay (mean difference (MD) 5.49 days, 95% CI 0.02 to 10.96; 2 RCTs, 135 participants; very low-certainty evidence). None of the enteral nutrition studies reported non-infectious complications as an outcome. The evidence is very uncertain about the effect of enteral nutrition on the number of participants with infectious complications after surgery (RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.59 to 1.38; 2 RCTs, 126 participants; very low-certainty evidence) or length of hospital stay (MD 5.10 days, 95% CI -1.03 to 11.23; 2 RCTs, 126 participants; very low-certainty evidence). Immune-enhancing nutrition compared to controls may result in little to no effect on the number of participants experiencing a non-infectious complication (RR 0.79, 95% CI 0.62 to 1.00; 8 RCTs, 1020 participants; low-certainty evidence), infectious complications (RR 0.74, 95% CI 0.53 to 1.04; 7 RCTs, 925 participants; low-certainty evidence) or length of hospital stay (MD -1.22 days, 95% CI -2.80 to 0.35; 6 RCTs, 688 participants; low-certainty evidence). Standard oral nutrition supplements may result in little to no effect on number of participants with a non-infectious complication (RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.20; 5 RCTs, 473 participants; low-certainty evidence) or the length of hospital stay (MD -0.65 days, 95% CI -2.33 to 1.03; 3 RCTs, 299 participants; low-certainty evidence). The evidence is very uncertain about the effect of oral nutrition supplements on the number of participants with an infectious complication (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.60 to 1.27; 5 RCTs, 473 participants; very low-certainty evidence). Sensitivity analysis based on malnourished and weight-losing participants found oral nutrition supplements may result in a slight reduction in infections (RR 0.58, 95% CI 0.40 to 0.85; 2 RCTs, 184 participants). Studies reported some secondary outcomes, but not consistently. Complications associated with central venous catheters occurred in RCTs involving parenteral nutrition. Adverse events in the enteral nutrition, immune-enhancing nutrition and standard oral nutrition supplements RCTs included nausea, vomiting, diarrhoea and abdominal pain. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: We were unable to determine if parenteral nutrition, enteral nutrition, immune-enhancing nutrition or standard oral nutrition supplements have any effect on the clinical outcomes due to very low-certainty evidence. There is some evidence that standard oral nutrition supplements may have no effect on complications. Sensitivity analysis showed standard oral nutrition supplements probably reduced infections in weight-losing or malnourished participants. Further high-quality multicentre research considering the ERAS programme is required and further research in low- and middle-income countries is needed.

Residual Lung Abnormalities after COVID-19 Hospitalization: Interim Analysis of the UKILD Post-COVID-19 Study.

Rationale: Shared symptoms and genetic architecture between coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and lung fibrosis suggest severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection may lead to progressive lung damage. Objectives: The UK Interstitial Lung Disease Consortium (UKILD) post-COVID-19 study interim analysis was planned to estimate the prevalence of residual lung abnormalities in people hospitalized with COVID-19 on the basis of risk strata. Methods: The PHOSP-COVID-19 (Post-Hospitalization COVID-19) study was used to capture routine and research follow-up within 240 days from discharge. Thoracic computed tomography linked by PHOSP-COVID-19 identifiers was scored for the percentage of residual lung abnormalities (ground-glass opacities and reticulations). Risk factors in linked computed tomography were estimated with Bayesian binomial regression, and risk strata were generated. Numbers within strata were used to estimate posthospitalization prevalence using Bayesian binomial distributions. Sensitivity analysis was restricted to participants with protocol-driven research follow-up. Measurements and Main Results: The interim cohort comprised 3,700 people. Of 209 subjects with linked computed tomography (median, 119 d; interquartile range, 83-155), 166 people (79.4%) had more than 10% involvement of residual lung abnormalities. Risk factors included abnormal chest X-ray (risk ratio [RR], 1.21; 95% credible interval [CrI], 1.05-1.40), percent predicted DlCO less than 80% (RR, 1.25; 95% CrI, 1.00-1.56), and severe admission requiring ventilation support (RR, 1.27; 95% CrI, 1.07-1.55). In the remaining 3,491 people, moderate to very high risk of residual lung abnormalities was classified at 7.8%, and posthospitalization prevalence was estimated at 8.5% (95% CrI, 7.6-9.5), rising to 11.7% (95% CrI, 10.3-13.1) in the sensitivity analysis. Conclusions: Residual lung abnormalities were estimated in up to 11% of people discharged after COVID-19-related hospitalization. Health services should monitor at-risk individuals to elucidate long-term functional implications.

Outcome of COVID-19 in hospitalised immunocompromised patients: An analysis of the WHO ISARIC CCP-UK prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Immunocompromised patients may be at higher risk of mortality if hospitalised with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) compared with immunocompetent patients. However, previous studies have been contradictory. We aimed to determine whether immunocompromised patients were at greater risk of in-hospital death and how this risk changed over the pandemic. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We included patients > = 19 years with symptomatic community-acquired COVID-19 recruited to the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK prospective cohort study. We defined immunocompromise as immunosuppressant medication preadmission, cancer treatment, organ transplant, HIV, or congenital immunodeficiency. We used logistic regression to compare the risk of death in both groups, adjusting for age, sex, deprivation, ethnicity, vaccination, and comorbidities. We used Bayesian logistic regression to explore mortality over time. Between 17 January 2020 and 28 February 2022, we recruited 156,552 eligible patients, of whom 21,954 (14%) were immunocompromised. In total, 29% (n = 6,499) of immunocompromised and 21% (n = 28,608) of immunocompetent patients died in hospital. The odds of in-hospital mortality were elevated for immunocompromised patients (adjusted OR 1.44, 95% CI [1.39, 1.50], p < 0.001). Not all immunocompromising conditions had the same risk, for example, patients on active cancer treatment were less likely to have their care escalated to intensive care (adjusted OR 0.77, 95% CI [0.7, 0.85], p < 0.001) or ventilation (adjusted OR 0.65, 95% CI [0.56, 0.76], p < 0.001). However, cancer patients were more likely to die (adjusted OR 2.0, 95% CI [1.87, 2.15], p < 0.001). Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, socioeconomic deprivation, comorbidities, and vaccination status. As the pandemic progressed, in-hospital mortality reduced more slowly for immunocompromised patients than for immunocompetent patients. This was particularly evident with increasing age: the probability of the reduction in hospital mortality being less for immunocompromised patients aged 50 to 69 years was 88% for men and 83% for women, and for those >80 years was 99% for men and 98% for women. The study is limited by a lack of detailed drug data prior to admission, including steroid doses, meaning that we may have incorrectly categorised some immunocompromised patients as immunocompetent. CONCLUSIONS: Immunocompromised patients remain at elevated risk of death from COVID-19. Targeted measures such as additional vaccine doses, monoclonal antibodies, and nonpharmaceutical preventive interventions should be continually encouraged for this patient group. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN 66726260.

Risk of Recurrence after Surgical Resection for Adenocarcinoma Arising from Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasia (IPMN) with Patterns of Distribution and Treatment: An International, Multicentre, Observational Study.

OBJECTIVE: This international multicentre cohort study aims to identify recurrence patterns and treatment of first and second recurrence in a large cohort of patients after pancreatic resection for adenocarcinoma arising from IPMN. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Recurrence patterns and treatment of recurrence post resection of adenocarcinoma arising from IPMN are poorly explored. METHOD: Patients undergoing pancreatic resection for adenocarcinoma from IPMN between January 2010 to December 2020 at 18 pancreatic centres were identified. Survival analysis was performed by the Kaplan-Meier log rank test and multivariable logistic regression by Cox-Proportional Hazards modelling. Endpoints were recurrence (time-to, location, and pattern of recurrence) and survival (overall survival and adjusted for treatment provided). RESULTS: Four hundred and fifty-nine patients were included (median, 70 y; IQR, 64-76; male, 54 percent) with a median follow-up of 26.3 months (IQR, 13.0-48.1 mo). Recurrence occurred in 209 patients (45.5 percent; median time to recurrence, 32.8 months, early recurrence [within 1 y], 23.2 percent). Eighty-three (18.1 percent) patients experienced a local regional recurrence and 164 (35.7 percent) patients experienced distant recurrence. Adjuvant chemotherapy was not associated with reduction in recurrence (HR 1.09;P=0.669) One hundred and twenty patients with recurrence received further treatment. The median survival with and without additional treatment was 27.0 and 14.6 months (P<0.001), with no significant difference between treatment modalities. There was no significant difference in survival between location of recurrence (P=0.401). CONCLUSION: Recurrence after pancreatic resection for adenocarcinoma arising from IPMN is frequent with a quarter of patients recurring within 12 months. Treatment of recurrence is associated with improved overall survival and should be considered.

Genome-wide analysis identifies gallstone-susceptibility loci including genes regulating gastrointestinal motility.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified several risk loci for gallstone disease. As with most polygenic traits, it is likely that many genetic determinants are undiscovered. The aim of this study was to identify genetic variants that represent new targets for gallstone research and treatment. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We performed a GWAS of 28,627 gallstone cases and 348,373 controls in the UK Biobank, replicated findings in a Scottish cohort (1089 cases, 5228 controls), and conducted a GWA meta-analysis (43,639 cases, 506,798 controls) with the FinnGen cohort. We assessed pathway enrichment using gene-based then gene-set analysis and tissue expression of identified genes in Genotype-Tissue Expression project data. We constructed a polygenic risk score (PRS) and evaluated phenotypic traits associated with the score. Seventy-five risk loci were identified (p < 5 × 10-8 ), of which 46 were new. Pathway enrichment revealed associations with lipid homeostasis, glucuronidation, phospholipid metabolism, and gastrointestinal motility. Anoctamin 1 (ANO1) and transmembrane Protein 147 (TMEM147), both in novel, replicated loci, are expressed in the gallbladder and gastrointestinal tract. Both regulate gastrointestinal motility. The gallstone risk allele rs7599-A leads to suppression of hepatic TMEM147 expression, suggesting that the protein protects against gallstone formation. The highest decile of the PRS demonstrated a 6-fold increased odds of gallstones compared with the lowest decile. The PRS was strongly associated with increased body mass index, serum liver enzymes, and C-reactive protein concentrations, and decreased lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: This GWAS demonstrates the polygenic nature of gallstone risk and identifies 46 novel susceptibility loci. We implicate genes influencing gastrointestinal motility in the pathogenesis of gallstones.

Prognostic models for surgical-site infection in gastrointestinal surgery: systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Identification of patients at high risk of surgical-site infection may allow clinicians to target interventions and monitoring to minimize associated morbidity. The aim of this systematic review was to identify and evaluate prognostic tools for the prediction of surgical-site infection in gastrointestinal surgery. METHODS: This systematic review sought to identify original studies describing the development and validation of prognostic models for 30-day SSI after gastrointestinal surgery (PROSPERO: CRD42022311019). MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, and IEEE Xplore were searched from 1 January 2000 to 24 February 2022. Studies were excluded if prognostic models included postoperative parameters or were procedure specific. A narrative synthesis was performed, with sample-size sufficiency, discriminative ability (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve), and prognostic accuracy compared. RESULTS: Of 2249 records reviewed, 23 eligible prognostic models were identified. A total of 13 (57 per cent) reported no internal validation and only 4 (17 per cent) had undergone external validation. Most identified operative contamination (57 per cent, 13 of 23) and duration (52 per cent, 12 of 23) as important predictors; however, there remained substantial heterogeneity in other predictors identified (range 2-28). All models demonstrated a high risk of bias due to the analytic approach, with overall low applicability to an undifferentiated gastrointestinal surgical population. Model discrimination was reported in most studies (83 per cent, 19 of 23); however, calibration (22 per cent, 5 of 23) and prognostic accuracy (17 per cent, 4 of 23) were infrequently assessed. Of externally validated models (of which there were four), none displayed 'good' discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve greater than or equal to 0.7). CONCLUSION: The risk of surgical-site infection after gastrointestinal surgery is insufficiently described by existing risk-prediction tools, which are not suitable for routine use. Novel risk-stratification tools are required to target perioperative interventions and mitigate modifiable risk factors.

This study is about finding ways to predict if someone will get an infection after having surgery on their stomach and intestines. If doctors know who is at high risk of getting an infection, they can take steps to prevent it and help the patient recover faster. The researchers looked at all the recent studies that have tried to predict who might get an infection after surgery. They found 23 studies that were good enough to look at in more detail. The researchers found that the studies they looked at were not very good at predicting who might get an infection. Most of the studies did not even check if their predictions were accurate. The few studies that did check were not very good at it. This means that doctors cannot use these predictions to help their patients. This means that doctors need to find better ways to predict who might get an infection after surgery on their stomach and intestines. If they can do this, they can help their patients recover faster and avoid problems like infections.

Comparison of UK paediatric SARS-CoV-2 admissions across the first and second pandemic waves.

BACKGROUND: We hypothesised that the clinical characteristics of hospitalised children and young people (CYP) with SARS-CoV-2 in the UK second wave (W2) would differ from the first wave (W1) due to the alpha variant (B.1.1.7), school reopening and relaxation of shielding. METHODS: Prospective multicentre observational cohort study of patients <19 years hospitalised in the UK with SARS-CoV-2 between 17/01/20 and 31/01/21. Clinical characteristics were compared between W1 and W2 (W1 = 17/01/20-31/07/20,W2 = 01/08/20-31/01/21). RESULTS: 2044 CYP < 19 years from 187 hospitals. 427/2044 (20.6%) with asymptomatic/incidental SARS-CoV-2 were excluded from main analysis. 16.0% (248/1548) of symptomatic CYP were admitted to critical care and 0.8% (12/1504) died. 5.6% (91/1617) of symptomatic CYP had Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C). After excluding CYP with MIS-C, patients in W2 had lower Paediatric Early Warning Scores (PEWS, composite vital sign score), lower antibiotic use and less respiratory and cardiovascular support than W1. The proportion of CYP admitted to critical care was unchanged. 58.0% (938/1617) of symptomatic CYP had no reported comorbidity. Patients without co-morbidities were younger (42.4%, 398/938, <1 year), had lower PEWS, shorter length of stay and less respiratory support. CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence of increased disease severity in W2 vs W1. A large proportion of hospitalised CYP had no comorbidity. IMPACT: No evidence of increased severity of COVID-19 admissions amongst children and young people (CYP) in the second vs first wave in the UK, despite changes in variant, relaxation of shielding and return to face-to-face schooling. CYP with no comorbidities made up a significant proportion of those admitted. However, they had shorter length of stays and lower treatment requirements than CYP with comorbidities once those with MIS-C were excluded. At least 20% of CYP admitted in this cohort had asymptomatic/incidental SARS-CoV-2 infection. This paper was presented to SAGE to inform CYP vaccination policy in the UK.

Picture Cards Versus Physical Examination: A Proof-of-Concept Study to Improve the SOSAS Survey Tool.

INTRODUCTION: The Surgeons OverSeas Assessment of Surgical Needs (SOSAS) survey tool is used to determine the unmet surgical needs in the community and has been validated in several countries. A major weakness is the absence of an objective assessment to verify patient-reported surgically treatable conditions. The goal of this study was to determine whether a picture portfolio, a tool previously shown to improve parental recognition of their child's congenital deformity, could improve the accuracy of the SOSAS tool by how it compares with physical examination. This study focused on children as many surgical conditions in them require prompt treatment but are often not promptly diagnosed. METHODS: We conducted a descriptive cross-sectional community-based study to determine the prevalence of congenital and acquired surgical conditions among children and adults in a mixed rural-urban area of Lagos, Southwest Nigeria. The picture portfolio was administered only to children and the surgical conditions to be assessed were predetermined using an e-Delphi process among pediatric surgeons. The modified The Surgeons OverSeas Assessment of Surgical Needs-Nigeria Survey Tool (SOSAS-NST) was administered to household members to collect other relevant data. Data were analyzed using the REDCap analytic tool. RESULTS: Eight hundred and fifty-six households were surveyed. There were 1984 adults (49.5%) and 2027 children (50.5%). Thirty-six children met the predetermined criteria for the picture portfolio-hydrocephalus (n = 1); lymphatic malformation (n = 1); umbilical hernia (n = 14); Hydrocele (n = 5); inguinal hernia (n = 10) and undescended testes (n = 5). The picture portfolio predicted all correctly except a case of undescended testis that was mistaken for a hernia. The sensitivity of the picture portfolio was therefore 35/36 or 97.2%. CONCLUSIONS: The SOSAS-NST has improved on the original SOSAS tool and within the limits of the small numbers, the picture portfolio has a high accuracy in predicting diagnosis in children in lieu of physical examination.

Educational impact and recommendations from implementation of student-led clinical trial recruitment: a mixed-methods study.

Medical students have an essential role in medical research, yet often lack opportunities for involvement within randomised trials. This study aimed to understand the educational impact of clinical trial recruitment for medical students. Tracking wound infection with smartphone technology (TWIST) was a randomised controlled trial that included adult patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery across two university teaching hospitals. All recruiters underwent prerecruitment training based on 'Generating Student Recruiters for Randomised Trials' principles, and completed prerecruitment and postrecruitment surveys. Respondent agreement with statements were assessed using 5-point Likert scales (from 1 ('strongly disagree') to 5 ('strongly agree')). Quantitative data were analysed using paired t-tests to compare differences pre-involvement and post-involvement. Thematic content analysis was performed on free-text data to generate recommendations for future student research involvement. Of 492 patients recruited to TWIST between 26 July 2016 and 4 March 2020, 86.0% (n=423) were recruited by medical students. Following introduction of student co-investigators (n=31), the overall monthly recruitment rate tripled (4.8-15.7 patients). 96.8% of recruiters (n=30/31) completed both surveys, and all respondents reported significant improvement in clinical and academic competencies. Three higher-level thematic domains emerged from the qualitative analysis: (1) engagement, (2) preparation and (3) ongoing support. Student recruitment in clinical trials is feasible and accelerates recruitment to clinical trials. Students demonstrated novel clinical research competencies and increased their likelihood of future involvement. Adequate training, support and selection of suitable trials are essential for future student involvement in randomised trials.

Characterisation of in-hospital complications associated with COVID-19 using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK: a prospective, multicentre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is a multisystem disease and patients who survive might have in-hospital complications. These complications are likely to have important short-term and long-term consequences for patients, health-care utilisation, health-care system preparedness, and society amidst the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Our aim was to characterise the extent and effect of COVID-19 complications, particularly in those who survive, using the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK. METHODS: We did a prospective, multicentre cohort study in 302 UK health-care facilities. Adult patients aged 19 years or older, with confirmed or highly suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection leading to COVID-19 were included in the study. The primary outcome of this study was the incidence of in-hospital complications, defined as organ-specific diagnoses occurring alone or in addition to any hallmarks of COVID-19 illness. We used multilevel logistic regression and survival models to explore associations between these outcomes and in-hospital complications, age, and pre-existing comorbidities. FINDINGS: Between Jan 17 and Aug 4, 2020, 80 388 patients were included in the study. Of the patients admitted to hospital for management of COVID-19, 49·7% (36 367 of 73 197) had at least one complication. The mean age of our cohort was 71·1 years (SD 18·7), with 56·0% (41 025 of 73 197) being male and 81·0% (59 289 of 73 197) having at least one comorbidity. Males and those aged older than 60 years were most likely to have a complication (aged ≥60 years: 54·5% [16 579 of 30 416] in males and 48·2% [11 707 of 24 288] in females; aged <60 years: 48·8% [5179 of 10 609] in males and 36·6% [2814 of 7689] in females). Renal (24·3%, 17 752 of 73 197), complex respiratory (18·4%, 13 486 of 73 197), and systemic (16·3%, 11 895 of 73 197) complications were the most frequent. Cardiovascular (12·3%, 8973 of 73 197), neurological (4·3%, 3115 of 73 197), and gastrointestinal or liver (0·8%, 7901 of 73 197) complications were also reported. INTERPRETATION: Complications and worse functional outcomes in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 are high, even in young, previously healthy individuals. Acute complications are associated with reduced ability to self-care at discharge, with neurological complications being associated with the worst functional outcomes. COVID-19 complications are likely to cause a substantial strain on health and social care in the coming years. These data will help in the design and provision of services aimed at the post-hospitalisation care of patients with COVID-19. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research and the UK Medical Research Council.

Prospective validation of the 4C prognostic models for adults hospitalised with COVID-19 using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol.

PURPOSE: To prospectively validate two risk scores to predict mortality (4C Mortality) and in-hospital deterioration (4C Deterioration) among adults hospitalised with COVID-19. METHODS: Prospective observational cohort study of adults (age ≥18 years) with confirmed or highly suspected COVID-19 recruited into the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) study in 306 hospitals across England, Scotland and Wales. Patients were recruited between 27 August 2020 and 17 February 2021, with at least 4 weeks follow-up before final data extraction. The main outcome measures were discrimination and calibration of models for in-hospital deterioration (defined as any requirement of ventilatory support or critical care, or death) and mortality, incorporating predefined subgroups. RESULTS: 76 588 participants were included, of whom 27 352 (37.4%) deteriorated and 12 581 (17.4%) died. Both the 4C Mortality (0.78 (0.77 to 0.78)) and 4C Deterioration scores (pooled C-statistic 0.76 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.77)) demonstrated consistent discrimination across all nine National Health Service regions, with similar performance metrics to the original validation cohorts. Calibration remained stable (4C Mortality: pooled slope 1.09, pooled calibration-in-the-large 0.12; 4C Deterioration: 1.00, -0.04), with no need for temporal recalibration during the second UK pandemic wave of hospital admissions. CONCLUSION: Both 4C risk stratification models demonstrate consistent performance to predict clinical deterioration and mortality in a large prospective second wave validation cohort of UK patients. Despite recent advances in the treatment and management of adults hospitalised with COVID-19, both scores can continue to inform clinical decision making. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN66726260.

Perioperative interventions to reduce pancreatic fistula following pancreatoduodenectomy: meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Data on interventions to reduce postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) following pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) are conflicting. The aim of this study was to assimilate data from RCTs. METHODS: MEDLINE and Embase databases were searched systematically for RCTs evaluating interventions to reduce all grades of POPF or clinically relevant (CR) POPF after PD. Meta-analysis was undertaken for interventions investigated in multiple studies. A post hoc analysis of negative RCTs assessed whether these had appropriate statistical power. RESULTS: Among 22 interventions (7512 patients, 55 studies), 12 were assessed by multiple studies, and subjected to meta-analysis. Of these, external pancreatic duct drainage was the only intervention associated with reduced rates of both CR-POPF (odds ratio (OR) 0.40, 95 per cent c.i. 0.20 to 0.80) and all-POPF (OR 0.42, 0.25 to 0.70). Ulinastatin was associated with reduced rates of CR-POPF (OR 0.24, 0.06 to 0.93). Invagination (versus duct-to-mucosa) pancreatojejunostomy was associated with reduced rates of all-POPF (OR 0.60, 0.40 to 0.90). Most negative RCTs were found to be underpowered, with post hoc power calculations indicating that interventions would need to reduce the POPF rate to 1 per cent or less in order to achieve 80 per cent power in 16 of 34 (all-POPF) and 19 of 25 (CR-POPF) studies respectively. CONCLUSION: This meta-analysis supports a role for several interventions to reduce POPF after PD. RCTs in this field were often relatively small and underpowered, especially those evaluating CR-POPF.

Acute kidney injury in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 from the ISARIC WHO CCP-UK Study: a prospective, multicentre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study investigated adults hospitalized with COVID-19 and hypothesized that risk factors for AKI would include comorbidities and non-White race. METHODS: A prospective multicentre cohort study was performed using patients admitted to 254 UK hospitals with COVID-19 between 17 January 2020 and 5 December 2020. RESULTS: Of 85 687 patients, 2198 (2.6%) received acute kidney replacement therapy (KRT). Of 41 294 patients with biochemistry data, 13 000 (31.5%) had biochemical AKI: 8562 stage 1 (65.9%), 2609 stage 2 (20.1%) and 1829 stage 3 (14.1%). The main risk factors for KRT were chronic kidney disease (CKD) [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 3.41: 95% confidence interval 3.06-3.81], male sex (aOR 2.43: 2.18-2.71) and Black race (aOR 2.17: 1.79-2.63). The main risk factors for biochemical AKI were admission respiratory rate >30 breaths per minute (aOR 1.68: 1.56-1.81), CKD (aOR 1.66: 1.57-1.76) and Black race (aOR 1.44: 1.28-1.61). There was a gradated rise in the risk of 28-day mortality by increasing severity of AKI: stage 1 aOR 1.58 (1.49-1.67), stage 2 aOR 2.41 (2.20-2.64), stage 3 aOR 3.50 (3.14-3.91) and KRT aOR 3.06 (2.75-3.39). AKI rates peaked in April 2020 and the subsequent fall in rates could not be explained by the use of dexamethasone or remdesivir. CONCLUSIONS: AKI is common in adults hospitalized with COVID-19 and it is associated with a heightened risk of mortality. Although the rates of AKI have fallen from the early months of the pandemic, high-risk patients should have their kidney function and fluid status monitored closely.

Device-assessed sleep and physical activity in individuals recovering from a hospital admission for COVID-19: a multicentre study.

BACKGROUND: The number of individuals recovering from severe COVID-19 is increasing rapidly. However, little is known about physical behaviours that make up the 24-h cycle within these individuals. This study aimed to describe physical behaviours following hospital admission for COVID-19 at eight months post-discharge including associations with acute illness severity and ongoing symptoms. METHODS: One thousand seventy-seven patients with COVID-19 discharged from hospital between March and November 2020 were recruited. Using a 14-day wear protocol, wrist-worn accelerometers were sent to participants after a five-month follow-up assessment. Acute illness severity was assessed by the WHO clinical progression scale, and the severity of ongoing symptoms was assessed using four previously reported data-driven clinical recovery clusters. Two existing control populations of office workers and individuals with type 2 diabetes were comparators. RESULTS: Valid accelerometer data from 253 women and 462 men were included. Women engaged in a mean ± SD of 14.9 ± 14.7 min/day of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA), with 12.1 ± 1.7 h/day spent inactive and 7.2 ± 1.1 h/day asleep. The values for men were 21.0 ± 22.3 and 12.6 ± 1.7 h /day and 6.9 ± 1.1 h/day, respectively. Over 60% of women and men did not have any days containing a 30-min bout of MVPA. Variability in sleep timing was approximately 2 h in men and women. More severe acute illness was associated with lower total activity and MVPA in recovery. The very severe recovery cluster was associated with fewer days/week containing continuous bouts of MVPA, longer total sleep time, and higher variability in sleep timing. Patients post-hospitalisation with COVID-19 had lower levels of physical activity, greater sleep variability, and lower sleep efficiency than a similarly aged cohort of office workers or those with type 2 diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Those recovering from a hospital admission for COVID-19 have low levels of physical activity and disrupted patterns of sleep several months after discharge. Our comparative cohorts indicate that the long-term impact of COVID-19 on physical behaviours is significant.