Reassessing potential economic value and health impact of effective Shigella vaccines.

The gram-negative bacterium Shigella is a leading cause of diarrheal morbidity and mortality in children in low- and middle-income countries. Several promising vaccine candidates are in late stages of clinical development against this increasingly antibiotic-resistant pathogen. However, considering the increasingly crowded and costly paediatric immunization schedule, and likely advent of other important new vaccines, it is unclear whether introduction of a Shigella vaccine would represent a high priority for international agencies or health ministries in low- and middle-income countries. To determine whether there is a compelling public health value proposition for a Shigella vaccine, we used the World Health Organization's Full Value of Vaccine Assessment analytic framework and formulated five broad scientific, policy, economic and commercial-related propositions regarding the development of a Shigella vaccine. We also explored the current regulatory, clinical, policy and commercial challenges to a Shigella-containing combination vaccine development and adoption. Through a series of literature reviews, expert consultations, social science field studies and model-based analyses, we addressed each of these propositions. As described in a series of separate publications that are synthesized here, we concluded that the economic and public health value of a Shigella vaccine may be greater than previously recognized, particularly if it is found to also be effective against less severe forms of diarrheal disease and childhood stunting. The decision by pharmaceutical companies to develop a standalone vaccine or a multipathogen combination will be a key factor in determining its relative prioritization by various stakeholders in low- and middle-income countries.

La bactérie à Gram négatif Shigella est l'une des principales causes de morbidité et de mortalité diarrhéiques chez les enfants des pays à revenu faible et intermédiaire. Plusieurs candidats vaccins prometteurs sont en phase avancée de conception clinique contre cet agent pathogène qui connaît une antibiorésistance croissante. Toutefois, compte tenu du calendrier de vaccination pédiatrique de plus en plus chargé et coûteux et de l'arrivée probable d'autres nouveaux vaccins importants, il n'est pas certain que la mise sur le marché d'un vaccin contre Shigella constitue une priorité élevée pour les agences internationales ou les ministères de la Santé des pays à revenu faible ou intermédiaire. Pour déterminer l'existence d'un intérêt convaincant en matière de santé publique pour un vaccin contre Shigella, nous avons utilisé le cadre analytique du cadre d'évaluation de la valeur totale des vaccins de l'Organisation mondiale de la santé et formulé cinq propositions scientifiques, politiques, économiques et commerciales générales concernant la conception d'un vaccin contre Shigella. Nous avons également étudié les défis en matière réglementaire, clinique, politique et commerciale qui se posent actuellement à la mise au point et à l'adoption d'un vaccin combiné contenant des Shigella. Nous avons abordé chacune de ces propositions au moyen d'une série d'analyses documentaires, de consultations d'experts, d'études de terrain en sciences sociales et d'analyses basées sur des modèles. Comme décrit dans une série de publications distinctes résumées ici, nous avons conclu que la valeur économique et sur le plan de la santé publique d'un vaccin contre Shigella pourrait être plus importante que ce qui était considéré précédemment, en particulier s'il s'avère que ce vaccin s'avère également efficace contre les formes moins sévères de maladies diarrhéiques et de retard de croissance chez l'enfant. La décision d'entreprises pharmaceutiques de mettre au point un vaccin autonome ou une combinaison de plusieurs agents pathogènes sera un facteur clé dans la détermination de sa priorité relative par les différentes parties prenantes dans les pays à revenu faible et intermédiaire.

La bacteria gramnegativa Shigella es una de las principales causas de morbilidad y mortalidad por diarrea en niños de países de ingresos bajos y medios. Varias vacunas candidatas y prometedoras se encuentran en las últimas fases de desarrollo clínico contra este patógeno cada vez más resistente a los antibióticos. Sin embargo, teniendo en cuenta el esquema de inmunización pediátrica, cada vez más saturado y costoso, y la probable llegada de otras vacunas nuevas importantes, no está claro si la introducción de una vacuna contra la Shigella representaría una alta prioridad para los organismos internacionales o los ministerios de salud de los países de ingresos bajos y medios. Para determinar si existe una propuesta de valor de salud pública convincente para una vacuna contra la Shigella, utilizamos el marco de análisis Full Value of Vaccine Assessment de la Organización Mundial de la Salud y formulamos cinco amplias propuestas científicas, políticas, económicas y comerciales relacionadas con el desarrollo de una vacuna contra la Shigella. También exploramos los actuales desafíos reglamentarios, clínicos, políticos y comerciales para el desarrollo y la adopción de una vacuna combinada que contenga Shigella. Mediante una serie de revisiones bibliográficas, consultas a expertos, estudios de campo de ciencias sociales y análisis basados en modelos, abordamos cada una de estas proposiciones. Como se describe en una serie de publicaciones separadas que se sintetizan aquí, llegamos a la conclusión de que el valor económico y de salud pública de una vacuna contra la Shigella puede ser mayor de lo que se reconocía anteriormente, en particular si se descubre que también es eficaz contra formas menos graves de enfermedad diarreica y retraso del crecimiento infantil. La decisión de las empresas farmacéuticas de desarrollar una vacuna independiente o una combinación multipatógena será un factor clave a la hora de determinar su prioridad relativa por parte de las diversas partes interesadas en los países de ingresos bajos y medios.

Testing Pneumonia Vaccines in the Elderly: Determining a Case Definition for Pneumococcal Pneumonia in the Absence of a Gold Standard.

Clinical assessments of vaccines to prevent pneumococcal community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) require sensitive and specific case definitions, but there is no gold standard diagnostic test. To develop a new case definition suitable for vaccine efficacy studies, we applied latent class analysis (LCA) to the results from 7 diagnostic tests for pneumococcal etiology on clinical specimens from 323 elderly persons with radiologically confirmed pneumonia enrolled in the Finnish Community-Acquired Pneumonia Epidemiology study during 2005-2007. Compared with the conventional use of LCA, which is mainly to determine sensitivities and specificities of different tests, we instead used LCA as an appropriate instrument to predict the probability of pneumococcal etiology for each CAP case based on individual test profiles, and we used the predictions to minimize the sample size that would be needed for a vaccine efficacy trial. When compared with the conventional laboratory criteria of encapsulated pneumococci in culture, in blood culture or high-quality sputum culture, or urine antigen positivity, our optimized case definition for pneumococcal CAP resulted in a trial sample size that was almost 20,000 subjects smaller. We believe that the novel application of LCA detailed here to determine a case definition for pneumococcal CAP could also be similarly applied to other diseases without a gold standard.

lytA Quantitative PCR on Sputum and Nasopharyngeal Swab Samples for Detection of Pneumococcal Pneumonia among the Elderly.

Real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) assay of sputum or nasopharyngeal specimens has shown promising results in the detection of pneumococcal community-acquired pneumonia (PncCAP). We applied qPCR for the autolysin gene (lytA) and compared sputum and nasopharyngeal swab (NPS) pneumococcal loads in elderly patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), and specifically in patients with PncCAP, to those in patient groups with other respiratory diseases. We studied patients aged ≥65 years with radiologically confirmed CAP, clinical CAP not retrospectively radiologically confirmed, other acute respiratory infections, or stable chronic lung disease. Pneumococcal etiology of CAP was ascertained by using a combination of multiple diagnostic methods. We analyzed sputum and NPS specimens by lytA qPCR with 104 pneumococcal genome equivalents (GE)/ml as a cutoff for positivity. Among PncCAP patients, lytA qPCR detected pneumococci in 94% of the sputum samples and in large quantities (mean, 6.82 ± 1.02 log10 GE/ml) but less frequently in NPS (44%) and in smaller quantities (5.55 ± 0.92 log10 GE/ml). In all other patient groups, ≤10% of the sputum samples and <5% of the NPS samples were lytA qPCR positive; but when they were positive, the sputum pneumococcal loads were similar to those in the PncCAP patients, suggesting a pneumococcal etiology in these patients. This was supported by other pneumococcal assay results. Overall, sputum lytA qPCR positivity was more common in PncCAP patients than in the other patient groups, but the quantitative results were mainly similar. NPS lytA qPCR was less sensitive than sputum lytA qPCR in detecting PncCAP.

Healthcare-seeking behaviour of primary caregivers for acute otitis media in children aged 6 months to <30 months in Panama: results of a cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: Acute otitis media (AOM) is the most common bacterial childhood infection. However, caregivers with children having mild episodes often do not seek healthcare services, which may lead to an under-appreciation of the disease experienced by the community. The objectives of this survey were to estimate the proportion of primary caregivers who went to a healthcare facility when they suspected that their child aged 6 to <30 months was having an AOM episode during the past 6 months and to assess what factors influenced their decision. METHODS: This observational, cross-sectional survey of primary caregivers (≥18 years), with at least one child aged 6 to <30 months was performed in 19 healthcare facilities in Panama (March to May 2013). A 28-item paper questionnaire was administered to assess demographic data, AOM symptoms, as well as potential healthcare-seeking behaviour and factors influencing this behaviour. Potential confounding effects were individually assessed using Chi-squared or Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel tests, and all together in logistic regression models. RESULTS: The total number of eligible participants was 1330 (mean age 28.5 ± 8.0 years). Of these, 245 participants had at least one child whom they suspected had an AOM episode during the past 6 months. Of the 245 participants, 213 (86.9%) sought healthcare at a facility. Several factors were associated with healthcare usage: perceived severity of illness (p = 0.001), occupational status of the caregiver (p = 0.002), household income (p = 0.016) and length of time since the last suspected AOM episode (p = 0.032). CONCLUSIONS: When confronted with a child with obvious symptoms of AOM, the majority of caregivers reported seeking healthcare. This behaviour appeared to be associated with factors related to the severity of the illness, the length of time since the last episode, as well as with the income and occupational status of the caregivers themselves. As many episodes of AOM present with non-specific respiratory symptoms, our results apply only to caregivers who were confronted with children with an obvious symptom.

Efficacy of pneumococcal nontypable Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV) in young Latin American children: A double-blind randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between pneumococcal conjugate vaccine-induced antibody responses and protection against community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and acute otitis media (AOM) is unclear. This study assessed the impact of the ten-valent pneumococcal nontypable Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV) on these end points. The primary objective was to demonstrate vaccine efficacy (VE) in a per-protocol analysis against likely bacterial CAP (B-CAP: radiologically confirmed CAP with alveolar consolidation/pleural effusion on chest X-ray, or non-alveolar infiltrates and C-reactive protein ≥ 40 µg/ml); other protocol-specified outcomes were also assessed. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This phase III double-blind randomized controlled study was conducted between 28 June 2007 and 28 July 2011 in Argentine, Panamanian, and Colombian populations with good access to health care. Approximately 24,000 infants received PHiD-CV or hepatitis control vaccine (hepatitis B for primary vaccination, hepatitis A at booster) at 2, 4, 6, and 15-18 mo of age. Interim analysis of the primary end point was planned when 535 first B-CAP episodes, occurring ≥2 wk after dose 3, were identified in the per-protocol cohort. After a mean follow-up of 23 mo (PHiD-CV, n = 10,295; control, n = 10,201), per-protocol VE was 22.0% (95% CI: 7.7, 34.2; one-sided p = 0.002) against B-CAP (conclusive for primary objective) and 25.7% (95% CI: 8.4%, 39.6%) against World Health Organization-defined consolidated CAP. Intent-to-treat VE was 18.2% (95% CI: 5.5%, 29.1%) against B-CAP and 23.4% (95% CI: 8.8%, 35.7%) against consolidated CAP. End-of-study per-protocol analyses were performed after a mean follow-up of 28-30 mo for CAP and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) (PHiD-CV, n = 10,211; control, n = 10,140) and AOM (n = 3,010 and 2,979, respectively). Per-protocol VE was 16.1% (95% CI: -1.1%, 30.4%; one-sided p = 0.032) against clinically confirmed AOM, 67.1% (95% CI: 17.0%, 86.9%) against vaccine serotype clinically confirmed AOM, 100% (95% CI: 74.3%, 100%) against vaccine serotype IPD, and 65.0% (95% CI: 11.1%, 86.2%) against any IPD. Results were consistent between intent-to-treat and per-protocol analyses. Serious adverse events were reported for 21.5% (95% CI: 20.7%, 22.2%) and 22.6% (95% CI: 21.9%, 23.4%) of PHiD-CV and control recipients, respectively. There were 19 deaths (n = 11,798; 0.16%) in the PHiD-CV group and 26 deaths (n = 11,799; 0.22%) in the control group. A significant study limitation was the lower than expected number of captured AOM cases. CONCLUSIONS: Efficacy was demonstrated against a broad range of pneumococcal diseases commonly encountered in young children in clinical practice. TRIAL REGISTRATION: www.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00466947.

Incidence and etiology of community-acquired pneumonia in the elderly in a prospective population-based study.

BACKGROUND: We conducted a prospective population-based epidemiological study to prepare a setting for documentation of the efficacy of novel vaccines against pneumococcal (Pnc) community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in the elderly. Specific objectives were to demonstrate setting feasibility, to construct a case definition for Pnc CAP, and to estimate its incidence. METHODS: We prospectively enrolled patients with clinical and radiological findings compatible with CAP at municipal on-call clinics serving an elderly population (age ≥ 65 y) of approximately 29,500. Sputum, urine, nasopharyngeal swab (NPS), and blood samples were analyzed using diverse methods for the identification of Pnc (culture, PCR, antigen tests, serology) and of other pathogens. The following case definition for Pnc CAP was derived: encapsulated Pnc in blood culture or in high-quality sputum culture or at least 2 of the following: positive urine Pnc antigen; ≥ 2-fold increase in serum anti-PsaA or anti-CbpA antibodies; encapsulated Pnc culture or LytA PCR in either sputum or NPS. RESULTS: We enrolled 490 clinical CAP patients during the 2-y follow-up, 53% of all clinical CAP patients in the source population; 323 were radiologically confirmed. The incidence of radiologically confirmed CAP was 5.5/1000 person-y (95% confidence interval (CI) 4.9-6.1) and 10.5/1000 person-y when adjusted for non-captured patients. The proportion of radiologically confirmed CAP caused by Pnc was estimated at 17%; i.e. 0.95/1000 person-y (95% CI 0.7-1.2) and 1.8 when adjusted for non-captured patients. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and documented a feasible methodology for capturing endpoints in a vaccine trial for the prevention of pneumonia. CAP incidence in the elderly population remains considerable and Streptococcus pneumoniae was one of the most commonly detected causative agents.

Haemophilus influenzae type b as an important cause of culture-positive acute otitis media in young children in Thailand: a tympanocentesis-based, multi-center, cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Streptococcus pneumoniae (S. pneumoniae) and Haemophilus influenzae (H. influenzae) are considered major causes of bacterial acute otitis media (AOM) worldwide, but data from Asia on primary causes of AOM are limited. This tympanocentesis-based, multi-center, cross-sectional study assessed bacterial etiology and antimicrobial susceptibility of AOM in Thailand. METHODS: Children 3 to 59 months presenting with AOM (< 72 hours of onset) who had not received prescribed antibiotics, or subjects who received prescribed antibiotics but remained symptomatic after 48-72 hours (treatment failures), were eligible. Study visits were conducted from April 2008 to August 2009. Bacteria were identified from middle ear fluid collected by tympanocentesis or spontaneous otorrhea swab sampling (< 20% of cases). S. pneumoniae and H. influenzae serotypes were determined and antimicrobial resistance was also assessed. RESULTS: Of the 123 enrolled children, 112 were included in analysis and 48% of the 118 samples were positive for S. pneumoniae (23% (27/118)), H. influenzae (18% (21/118)), Moraxella catarrhalis (6% (7/118)) or Streptococcus pyogenes (3% (4/118)). The most common pneumococcal serotypes were 19F (26%) and 14 (22%). The majority of H. influenzae isolates were encapsulated (18/21), with 13 type b (Hib) representing 62% of all H. influenzae isolate or 11% of all samples (13/118), and there were only 3 non-typeable isolates. Despite high antibiotic resistance, amoxicillin/clavulanate susceptibility was high. No pneumococcal vaccine use was reported. CONCLUSIONS: S. pneumoniae and H. influenzae, both frequently antibiotic resistant, were leading causes of bacterial AOM and there was an unexpectedly high burden of Hib in this population unvaccinated by any Hib conjugate vaccine. Conjugate vaccines effective against pneumococcus and H. influenzae could potentially reduce the burden of AOM in this population.

Bacterial etiology of empyema thoracis and parapneumonic pleural effusion in Thai children aged less than 16 years.

This study aimed to identify the bacterial etiology of empyema thoracis or parapneumonic pleural effusions in Thai children, with a focus on pneumococcus. This hospital-based, descriptive study included children aged < or = 16 years, diagnosed with empyema thoracis or parapneumonic pleural effusion, from whom a pleural fluid (PF) sample was taken between January 2008 and November 2009. PF and blood samples were cultured and PF samples were also tested by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) to assess whether evidence of an infection might be identified among culture-negative samples. Serotyping of Streptococcus pneumoniae-positive samples was performed by molecular techniques and Quellung reaction. In this study, 29 children with empyema thoracis and 42 children with parapneumonic pleural effusion were enrolled. Potentially pathogenic bacteria were cultured in 13/71 samples at local or central laboratories; the most common bacteria were Staphylococcus aureus (8 children) and S. pneumoniae (2 children). Molecular techniques detected one or more targeted respiratory pathogens in 18/71 PF samples. S. pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae were identified by PCR in 13 and 6 children, respectively; PCR for S. aureus was not performed. The pneumococcal serotypes identified were 1, 3, 5, 6A/B, 9A/V, 14, 15A, 19F and 23A. This study shows that among Thai children with empyema thoracis and parapneumonic pleural effusions, S. aureus and S. pneumoniae were the most common pathogens identified by culture and PCR, respectively. These findings confirmed that molecular techniques are more sensitive for identification of S. pneumoniae and H. influenzae and enhance detection of important bacterial causes of empyema.

Lassa fever vaccine use cases and demand: Perspectives from select West African experts.

Lassa fever (LF) is a zoonotic viral hemorrhagic disease endemic to several West African countries. Approximately 300-500,000 cases occur annually across all ages with 10-20% case fatality rates. A LF vaccine is a recognized public health priority, with several candidates entering clinical trials. However, the perspectives of regional experts regarding critical vaccine properties, ideal delivery methods, and priority target populations remain unclear. Using a mixed methods approach with a standardized questionnaire, we individually interviewed 8 West African stakeholders, each with extensive knowledge and experience of LF. They strongly favored the use of a mass, proactive campaign strategy to immunize a wide age range of people in high-risk areas, including pregnant women and health care workers. We estimated that these and other plausible delivery scenarios could result in an initial demand of anywhere from 1 to 100 million doses, with most demand coming from Nigeria. These findings may help inform LF vaccine development and deployment efforts.

Facilitating the development of urgently required combination vaccines.

The essence of a vaccine lies in its ability to elicit a set of immune responses specifically directed at a particular pathogen. Accordingly, vaccines were historically designed, developed, registered, recommended, procured, and administered as monopathogen formulations. Nonetheless, the control and elimination of an astonishing number of diseases was realised only after several once-separate vaccines were provided as combinations. Unfortunately, the current superabundance of recommended and pipeline vaccines is now at odds with the number of acceptable vaccine administrations and feasible health-care visits for vaccine recipients and health-care providers. Yet, few new combinations are in development because, in addition to the scientific and manufacturing hurdles intrinsic to coformulation, developers face a gauntlet of regulatory, policy, and commercialisation obstacles in a milieu still largely designed for monopathogen vaccines. We argue here that national policy makers and public health agencies should prospectively identify and advocate for the development of new multipathogen combination vaccines, and suggest ways to accelerate the regulatory pathways to licensure of combinations and other concrete, innovative steps to mitigate current obstacles.

The role of vaccines in reducing antimicrobial resistance: A review of potential impact of vaccines on AMR and insights across 16 vaccines and pathogens.

In 2019, an estimated 4.95 million deaths were linked to antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Vaccines can prevent many of these deaths by averting both drug-sensitive and resistant infections, reducing antibiotic usage, and lowering the likelihood of developing resistance genes. However, their role in mitigating AMR is currently underutilized. This article builds upon previous research that utilizes Vaccine Value Profiles-tools that assess the health, socioeconomic, and societal impact of pathogens-to inform vaccine development. We analyze the effects of 16 pathogens, covered by Vaccine Value Profiles, on AMR, and explore how vaccines could reduce AMR. The article also provides insights into vaccine development and usage. Vaccines are crucial in lessening the impact of infectious diseases and curbing the development of AMR. To fully realize their potential, vaccines must be more prominently featured in the overall strategy to combat AMR. This requires ongoing investment in research and development of new vaccines and the implementation of additional prevention and control measures to address this global threat effectively.

The 2022 Vaccines Against Shigella and Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (VASE) Conference: Summary of breakout workshops.

The global public health nonprofit organization PATH hosted the third Vaccines Against Shigella and Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (VASE) Conference in Washington, DC, from November 29 to December 1, 2022. This international gathering focused on cutting-edge research related to the development of vaccines against neglected diarrheal pathogens including Shigella, enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC), Campylobacter, and non-typhoidal Salmonella. In addition to the conference's plenary content, the agenda featured ten breakout workshops on topics of importance to the enteric vaccine field. This unique aspect of VASE Conferences allows focused groups of attendees to engage in in-depth discussions on subjects of interest to the enteric vaccine development community. In 2022, the workshops covered a range of topics. Two focused on the public health value of enteric vaccines, with one examining how to translate evidence into policy and the other on the value proposition of potential combination vaccines against bacterial enteric pathogens. Two more workshops explored new tools for the development and evaluation of vaccines, with the first on integrating antigen/antibody technologies for mucosal vaccine and immunoprophylactic development, and the second on adjuvants specifically for Shigella vaccines for children in low- and middle-income countries. Another pair of workshops covered the status of vaccines against two emerging enteric pathogens, Campylobacter and invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella. The remaining four workshops examined the assessment of vaccine impact on acute and long-term morbidity. These included discussions on the nature and severity of intestinal inflammation; cellular immunity and immunological memory in ETEC and Shigella infections; clinical and microbiologic endpoints for Shigella vaccine efficacy studies in children; and intricacies of protective immunity to enteric pathogens. This article provides a brief summary of the presentations and discussions at each workshop in order to share these sessions with the broader enteric vaccine field.

The 2022 Vaccines Against Shigella and Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (VASE) Conference: Summary of abstract-based presentations.

The global nonprofit organization PATH hosted the third Vaccines Against Shigella and Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (VASE) Conference in Washington, DC, on November 29 to December 1, 2022. With a combination of plenary sessions and posters, keynote presentations, and breakout workshops, the 2022 VASE Conference featured key updates on research related to the development of vaccines against neglected diarrheal pathogens including Shigella, enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC), Campylobacter, and Salmonella. The presentations and discussions highlighted the significant impact of these diarrheal pathogens, particularly on the health of infants and young children in low- and middle-income countries, reflecting the urgent need for the development and licensure of new enteric vaccines. Oral and poster presentations at the VASE Conference explored a range of topics, including: the global burden and clinical presentation of disease, epidemiology, and the impact of interventions; the assessment of the value of vaccines against enteric pathogens; preclinical evaluations of vaccine candidates and models of enteric diseases; vaccine candidates in clinical trials and human challenge models; host parameters and genomics that predict responses to infection and disease; the application of new omics technologies for characterization of emerging pathogens and host responses; novel adjuvants, vaccine delivery platforms, and immunization strategies; and strategies for combination/co-administered vaccines. The conference agenda also featured ten breakout workshop sessions on topics of importance to the enteric vaccine field, which are summarized separately. This article reviews key points and highlighted research presented in each of the plenary conference sessions and poster presentations at the 2022 VASE Conference.

Potential impact and cost-effectiveness of Shigella vaccination in 102 low-income and middle-income countries in children aged 5 years or younger: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Vaccine impact and cost-effectiveness models have mostly focused on acute burden. Shigella-attributable moderate-to-severe diarrhoea has been shown to be associated with childhood linear growth faltering. Evidence also links less severe diarrhoea to linear growth faltering. As Shigella vaccines are in late stages of clinical development, we aimed to estimate the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of vaccination against Shigella burden that includes stunting and the acute burden attributable to less severe diarrhoea and moderate-to-severe diarrhoea. METHODS: We used a simulation model to estimate Shigella burden and potential vaccination in children aged 5 years or younger from 102 low-income to middle-income countries from 2025 to 2044. Our model included stunting associated with Shigella-related moderate-to-severe diarrhoea and less severe diarrhoea and we explored vaccination impact on health and economic outcomes. FINDINGS: We estimate 109 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39-204) Shigella-attributable stunting cases and 1·4 million (0·8-2·1) deaths in unvaccinated children over 20 years. We project that Shigella vaccination could avert 43 million (13-92) stunting cases and 590 000 (297 000-983 000) deaths over 20 years. The overall mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was US$849 (95% uncertainty interval 423-1575; median $790 [IQR 635-1005]) per disability-adjusted life-year averted. Vaccination was most cost-effective in the WHO African region and in low-income countries. Including the burden of Shigella-related less severe diarrhoea improved mean ICERs by 47-48% for these groups and substantially improved ICERs for other regions. INTERPRETATION: Our model suggests that Shigella vaccination would be a cost-effective intervention, with a substantial impact in specific countries and regions. Other regions could potentially benefit upon the inclusion of the burden of Shigella-related stunting and less severe diarrhoea in the analysis. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Wellcome Trust.

Projecting the long-term economic benefits of reducing Shigella-attributable linear growth faltering with a potential vaccine: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Linear growth is an important outcome of child development with implications for economic productivity. Enteric infections, particularly Shigella, have been linked to linear growth faltering (LGF). However, benefits from potential reductions in LGF are rarely included in economic analyses of enteric infections. We aimed to quantify the economic benefits of vaccination related to reduced Shigella-attributable disease and associated LGF compared with the net costs of a vaccine programme. METHODS: In this benefit-cost analysis, we modelled productivity benefits in 102 low-income and middle-income countries that had recent stunting estimates available, at least one Shigella-attributable death annually, and available economic data, particularly on gross national income and growth rate projections. We modelled benefits strictly related to linear growth improvements and no other benefits associated with reducing diarrhoeal burden. The effect size in each country was calculated as shifts in height-for-age Z score (HAZ), representing population average changes for preventing Shigella-attributable less-severe diarrhoea and moderate-to-severe diarrhoea separately for children younger than 5 years. Benefits data were calculated per country and combined with estimated net costs of the vaccine programme in the form of benefit-cost ratios (BCRs); BCRs above parity, or $1 in benefits per $1 in costs (with a 10% margin representing borderline results: 1·10:1), were considered cost-beneficial. Countries were aggregated for analysis by WHO region, World Bank income category, and eligibility for support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. FINDINGS: In the base-case scenario, all regions exhibited cost-beneficial results, with the South-East Asia region and Gavi-eligible countries exhibiting the highest BCRs (21·67 for the South-East Asia region and 14·45 for Gavi-eligible countries), and the Eastern Mediterranean region yielding the lowest BCRs (2·90). All regions exhibited cost-beneficial results from vaccination, except in more conservative scenarios (eg, those assuming early retirement ages and higher discount rates). Our findings were sensitive to assumed returns for increased height, assumptions about vaccine efficacy against linear growth detriments, the anticipated shift in HAZ, and discount rate. Incorporating the productivity benefits of LGF reduction into existing cost-effectiveness estimates resulted in longer-term cost-savings in nearly all regions. INTERPRETATION: LGF is a secondary outcome of Shigella infection and reduction in LGF is not often quantified as a health or economic benefit of vaccination. However, even under conservative assumptions, a Shigella vaccine only moderately effective against LGF could pay for itself from productivity gains alone in some regions. We recommend that LGF be considered in future models assessing the economic and health impacts of interventions preventing enteric infections. Further research is needed on vaccine efficacy against LGF to inform such models. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust.

Challenges and opportunities in developing a Shigella-containing combination vaccine for children in low- and middle-income countries: Report of an expert convening.

The gram-negative bacterium Shigella is an enteric pathogen responsible for significant morbidity and mortality due primarily to severe diarrhea and dysentery, mainly among children younger than five years of age living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Long considered a priority target for vaccine development, recent scientific advances have led to a number of promising Shigella vaccine candidates now entering advanced stages of clinical testing. Yet, there is no guarantee that even a highly efficacious Shigella vaccine will be recommended, prioritized, purchased, and widely adopted-especially if it requires additional doses in the immunization schedule and/or visits within the immunization program. This uncertainty is due to a variety of factors, including continuing declines in Shigella-specific and overall diarrheal disease mortality rates, the increasing complexity and cost of infant immunization programs in LMICs, and the recent availability of other high-priority vaccines. Since combining a Shigella vaccine with an existing infant vaccine would conceivably increase its attractiveness, there is a need to systematically consider the challenges determining the public health value, clinical development, manufacturing, licensure, policy recommendations, and financing for a Shigella-containing combination vaccine. The international non-governmental health organization PATH convened an independent panel of 34 subject matter experts across academic, industry, philanthropic, and global health sectors to discuss hypothetical combinations of a notional parenteral Shigella vaccine with three existing vaccines in order to begin exploring the challenges associated with their development. The resulting insights and recommendations from this meeting contribute to PATH's broader effort to evaluate the public health value of potential Shigella vaccines. They may also help guide future combination vaccine development efforts more broadly.

Vaccine value profile for Shigella.

Shigella is the leading bacterial cause of diarrhoea and the second leading cause of diarrhoeal mortality among all ages. It also exhibits increasing levels of antibiotic resistance. The greatest burden is among children under five in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). As such, a priority strategic goal of the World Health Organization (WHO) is the development of a safe, effective and affordable vaccine to reduce morbidity and mortality from Shigella-attributable dysentery and diarrhea, including long term outcomes associated with chronic inflammation and growth faltering, in children under 5 years of age in LMICs. In addition, a safe and effective Shigella vaccine is of potential interest to travellers and military both to prevent acute disease and rarer, long-term sequelae. An effective Shigella vaccine is also anticipated to reduce antibiotic use and thereby help diminish further emergence of enteric pathogens resistant to antimicrobials. The most advanced vaccine candidates are multivalent, parenteral formulations in Phase 2 and Phase 3 clinical studies. They rely on O-antigen-polysaccharide protein conjugate technologies or, alternatively, outer membrane vesicles expressing penta-acylated lipopolysaccharide that has been detoxified. Other parenteral and oral formulations, many delivering a broader array of Shigella antigens, are at earlier stages of clinical development. These formulations are being assessed in alignment with the WHO Preferred Product Characteristics, which call for a 1 to 2 dose primary immunization series given during the first 12 months of life, ideally starting at 6 months of age. This 'Vaccine Value Profile' (VVP) for Shigella is intended to provide a high-level, holistic assessment of the information and data that are currently available to inform the potential public health, economic and societal value of pipeline vaccines and vaccine-like products. This VVP was developed by a working group of subject matter experts from academia, non-profit organizations, government agencies and multi-lateral organizations. All contributors have extensive expertise on various elements of the Shigella VVP and collectively aimed to identify current research and knowledge gaps. The VVP was developed using only existing and publicly available information.

Vaccine value profile for enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC).

Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) is one of the leading bacterial causes of diarrhoea, especially among children in low-resource settings, and travellers and military personnel from high-income countries. WHO's primary strategic goal for ETEC vaccine development is to develop a safe, effective, and affordable ETEC vaccine that reduces mortality and morbidity due to moderate-to-severe diarrhoeal disease in infants and children under 5 years of age in LMICs, as well as the long-term negative health impact on infant physical and cognitive development resulting from infection with this enteric pathogen. An effective ETEC vaccine will also likely reduce the need for antibiotic treatment and help limit the further emergence of antimicrobial resistance bacterial pathogens. The lead ETEC vaccine candidate, ETVAX, has shown field efficacy in travellers and has moved into field efficacy testing in LMIC infants and children. A Phase 3 efficacy study in LMIC infants is projected to start in 2024 and plans for a Phase 3 trial in travellers are under discussion with the U.S. FDA. Licensing for both travel and LMIC indications is projected to be feasible in the next 5-8 years. Given increasing recognition of its negative impact on child health and development in LMICs and predominance as the leading etiology of travellers' diarrhoea (TD), a standalone vaccine for ETEC is more cost-effective than vaccines targeting other TD pathogens, and a viable commercial market also exists. In contrast, combination of an ETEC vaccine with other vaccines for childhood pathogens in LMICs would maximize protection in a more cost-effective manner than a series of stand-alone vaccines. This 'Vaccine Value Profile' (VVP) for ETEC is intended to provide a high-level, holistic assessment of available data to inform the potential public health, economic and societal value of pipeline vaccines and vaccine-like products. This VVP was developed by a working group of subject matter experts from academia, non-profit organizations, public private partnerships, and multi-lateral organizations. All contributors have extensive expertise on various elements of the ETEC VVP and collectively aimed to identify current research and knowledge gaps. The VVP was developed using only existing and publicly available information.

Exploring Shigella vaccine priorities and preferences: Results from a mixed-methods study in low- and middle-income settings.

Background: Shigella is the leading bacterial cause of diarrheal mortality in children and can cause long-term effects on growth and development. No licensed Shigella vaccines currently exist but several promising candidates are in development and could be available in the next five years. Despite Shigella being a well-known public health target of the World Health Organization for decades, given current burden estimates and competing preventable disease priorities in low-income settings, whether the availability of an effective Shigella vaccine will lead to its prioritization and widespread introduction among countries at highest risk is unknown. Methods: We conducted a mixed-methods study of national stakeholders and healthcare providers in five countries in Asia and Africa and regional stakeholders in the Pan American Health Organization to identify preferences and priorities for forthcoming Shigella vaccines. Results: In our study of 89 individuals, diarrhea was the most frequently mentioned serious health concern for children under five years. Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) was more often considered very concerning than diarrhea or stunting. Shigella awareness was high but not considered a serious health concern by most stakeholders. Most participants were willing to consider adding a new vaccine to the routine immunization schedule but expressed reservations about a Shigella vaccine because of lower perceived burden relative to other preventable diseases and an already crowded schedule; interest was highest among national stakeholders in countries receiving more financial support for immunization. The priority of a Shigella vaccine rose when participants considered vaccine impacts on reducing stunting and AMR. Participants strongly preferred oral and combination vaccines compared to injectable and a single-antigen presentations, citing greater perceived community acceptability. Conclusions: This study provides a critical opportunity to hear directly from country and regional stakeholders about health priorities and preferences around new vaccines. These findings should inform ongoing Shigella vaccine development efforts and eventual vaccine introduction and implementation planning.