RESUMEN
This study was designed to develop a model of serum thymidine kinase 1 protein (STK1p) concentration in combination with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) to predict the risk of benign pulmonary nodules progressing into lung cancer within three years in a large screening population. The study included a retrospective cohort of 6,841 individuals aged > 30 years who had LDCT-detected pulmonary nodules, but no cancer history or baseline cancer. The outcome was a lung cancer diagnosis recorded within three years after the first detection of pulmonary nodules. The adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator was used to select candidate predictors and fit a logistic model. The model was validated internally by examining discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration (calibration plot)) and net benefit. A web application was developed based on the model. The results showed that the proportion of incident lung cancer cases was 0.79% (n=52). Predictors selected for the model were STK1p and three LDCT parameters (nodule size, type, and count). The AUC of the model was 0.91 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.86, 0.96). The model had satisfactory discrimination at internal validation (AUC: 0.90 (0.84, 0.96)) and in subgroups (AUC=0.69-0.93). The high-risk group identified by the model exhibited a significantly higher three-year lung cancer risk than the low-risk group (odds ratio (OR): 66.03 (95% CI: 30.49, 162.98)). We concluded that the novel model of STK1p and LDCT parameters together can be used to accurately predict the three-year risk of lung cancer in people with pulmonary nodules.
RESUMEN
Objective: The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram, using serum thymidine kinase 1 protein (STK1p) combined with ultrasonography parameters, to early predict central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) pre-surgery. Methods: Patients with PTC pre-surgery in January 2021 to February 2023 were divided into three cohorts: the observation cohort (CLNM, n = 140), the control cohort (NCLNM, n = 128), and the external verification cohort (CLNM, n = 50; NCLNM, n = 50). STK1p was detected by an enzyme immunodot-blot chemiluminescence analyzer and clinical parameters were evaluated by ultrasonography. Results: A suitable risk threshold value for STK1p of 1.7 pmol/L was selected for predicting CLNM risk by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Multivariate analysis identified the following six independent risk factors for CLNM: maximum tumor size >1 cm [odds ratio (OR) = 2.406, 95% confidence interval (CI) (1.279-4.526), p = 0.006]; capsule invasion [OR = 2.664, 95% CI (1.324-5.360), p = 0.006]; irregular margin [OR = 2.922; 95% CI (1.397-6.111), p = 0.004]; CLN flow signal [OR = 3.618, 95% CI (1.631-8.027), p = 0.002]; tumor-foci number ≥2 [OR = 4.064, 95% CI (2.102-7.859), p < 0.001]; and STK1p ≥1.7 pmol/L [OR = 7.514, 95% CI (3.852-14.660), p < 0.001]. The constructed nomogram showed that the area under the ROC curve for the main dataset was 0.867 and that for the validation dataset was 0.830, exhibiting effectivity, and was recalculated to a total score of approximately 383. Through monitoring the response post-surgery, all patients were assessed as tumor-free at 12 months post-surgery, which was significantly associated with a reduction in STK1p to disease-free levels. Conclusion: We demonstrate for the first time that a novel nomogram including STK1p combined with ultrasonography can assist in the clinical prevention of CLNM, by facilitating timely, individualized prophylactic CLNM dissection, thereby reducing the risk of secondary surgery and the probability of recurrence.