Associations Between Extreme Temperatures and Cardiovascular Cause-Specific Mortality: Results From 27 Countries.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. Existing studies on the association between temperatures and cardiovascular deaths have been limited in geographic zones and have generally considered associations with total cardiovascular deaths rather than cause-specific cardiovascular deaths. METHODS: We used unified data collection protocols within the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Network to assemble a database of daily counts of specific cardiovascular causes of death from 567 cities in 27 countries across 5 continents in overlapping periods ranging from 1979 to 2019. City-specific daily ambient temperatures were obtained from weather stations and climate reanalysis models. To investigate cardiovascular mortality associations with extreme hot and cold temperatures, we fit case-crossover models in each city and then used a mixed-effects meta-analytic framework to pool individual city estimates. Extreme temperature percentiles were compared with the minimum mortality temperature in each location. Excess deaths were calculated for a range of extreme temperature days. RESULTS: The analyses included deaths from any cardiovascular cause (32 154 935), ischemic heart disease (11 745 880), stroke (9 351 312), heart failure (3 673 723), and arrhythmia (670 859). At extreme temperature percentiles, heat (99th percentile) and cold (1st percentile) were associated with higher risk of dying from any cardiovascular cause, ischemic heart disease, stroke, and heart failure as compared to the minimum mortality temperature, which is the temperature associated with least mortality. Across a range of extreme temperatures, hot days (above 97.5th percentile) and cold days (below 2.5th percentile) accounted for 2.2 (95% empirical CI [eCI], 2.1-2.3) and 9.1 (95% eCI, 8.9-9.2) excess deaths for every 1000 cardiovascular deaths, respectively. Heart failure was associated with the highest excess deaths proportion from extreme hot and cold days with 2.6 (95% eCI, 2.4-2.8) and 12.8 (95% eCI, 12.2-13.1) for every 1000 heart failure deaths, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Across a large, multinational sample, exposure to extreme hot and cold temperatures was associated with a greater risk of mortality from multiple common cardiovascular conditions. The intersections between extreme temperatures and cardiovascular health need to be thoroughly characterized in the present day-and especially under a changing climate.

Possibility of refining carotenoid geometrical isomer analysis utilizing DFT-based quantum chemical calculations.

We performed quantum chemical calculations based on the density functional theory (DFT) for the all-E- and several Z-isomers of three commercially important carotenoids (lycopene, ß-carotene, and astaxanthin) and theoretically obtained the UV-Vis spectrum, response factor (determined from absorption intensities of the all-E- and the Z-isomers), and Q-ratio for each carotenoid isomer. The calculated spectra reproduced the experimental spectral shapes (e.g., the appearance of the Z-peaks and the blue shift of the main peaks for the Z-isomers) very well. The calculated response factors and Q-ratios also showed good agreement with reported values. Notably, response factors, which are difficult to determine experimentally, were well reproduced. These results suggest that quantum chemical calculations can be an effective tool for refining quantitative analysis and obtaining spectral data for carotenoids for which standards are difficult to obtain.

Identification of differentially methylated regions associated with both liver fibrosis and hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Liver fibrosis is a major risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We have previously reported that differentially methylated regions (DMRs) are correlated with the fibrosis stages of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). In this study, the methylation levels of those DMRs in liver fibrosis and subsequent HCC were examined. METHODS: The methylation levels of DMRs were investigated using alcoholic cirrhosis and HCC (GSE60753). The data of hepatitis C virus-infected cirrhosis and HCC (GSE60753), and two datasets (GSE56588 and GSE89852) were used for replication analyses. The transcriptional analyses were performed using GSE114564, GSE94660, and GSE142530. RESULTS: Hypomethylated DMR and increased transcriptional level of zinc finger and BTB domain containing 38 (ZBTB38) were observed in HCC. Hypermethylated DMRs, and increased transcriptional levels of forkhead box K1 (FOXK1) and zinc finger CCCH-type containing 3 (ZC3H3) were observed in HCC. The methylation levels of DMR of kazrin, periplakin interacting protein (KAZN) and its expression levels were gradually decreased as cirrhosis progressed to HCC. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in the methylation and transcriptional levels of ZBTB38, ZC3H3, FOXK1, and KAZN are important for the development of fibrosis and HCC; and are therefore potential therapeutic targets and diagnostic tools for cirrhosis and HCC.

Distribution of Fibrosis-4 index and vibration-controlled transient elastography-derived liver stiffness measurement for patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease in health check-up.

AIMS: The multisociety consensus nomenclature has introduced steatotic liver disease (SLD) with diverse subclassifications, which are metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), metabolic dysfunction and alcohol-associated steatotic liver disease (MetALD), alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD), specific etiology, and cryptogenic. We investigated their prevalence, as per the new definition, in individuals undergoing health check-ups. Additionally, we analyzed the distribution of Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index and vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE)-derived liver stiffness measurement (LSM) for MASLD. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, 6530 subjects undergoing a health check-up in Japan were included. Conventional B-mode ultrasound was carried out on all 6530 subjects, and those with MASLD underwent VCTE. RESULTS: The prevalence of SLD was 39.5%, comprising MASLD 28.7%, MetALD 8.6%, ALD 1.2%, specific etiology SLD 0.3%, and cryptogenic SLD 0.7%. Subjects with VCTE-derived LSM ≥8 kPa constituted 2.1% of MASLD. FIB-4 ≥1.3 showed that the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value for diagnosing VCTE-derived LSM ≥8 kPa were 60.6%, 77.0%, 5.3%, and 98.9%, respectively. The referral rate to specialists was 23.8% using FIB-4 ≥1.30. "FIB-4 ≥1.3 in subjects <65 years and FIB-4 ≥2.0 in subjects ≥65 years" showed higher PPV (6.7%) and lower referral rate (17.1%) compared with FIB-4 ≥1.3, but the sensitivity (54.5%) did not show adequate diagnostic capability as a noninvasive test for diagnosing VCTE-derived LSM ≥8 kPa. CONCLUSIONS: Acknowledging the selection bias in hepatology centers, we undertook this prospective health check-up study. Although the FIB-4 index proves to be a convenient marker, it might not perform well as a primary screening tool for liver fibrosis in the general population (UMIN Clinical Trials Registry No. UMIN000035188).

Random forest analysis of the relative importance of meteorological indicators for heatstroke cases in Japan based on the degree of severity and place of occurrence.

Heatstroke is a serious health concern in Japan. To reduce heatstroke risk, the government of Japan implemented the "Heatstroke Alert" nationwide in 2021, employing the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) as a criterion. Although the WBGT is a useful meteorological indicator for assessing the risk of heatstroke, other important meteorological indicators must also be investigated. Therefore, using a random forest approach, this study analyzed the relative importance of several meteorological indicators, including those representing heat acclimatization, for each of the 47 Japanese prefectures. Using the generalized linear model, important meteorological indicators were employed as explanatory variables in the heatstroke prediction model to determine the predictive meteorological indicator. Heatstroke cases were evaluated separately by the degree of severity and the place of occurrence. The results showed that the relative temperature (RelTemp), which represents heat acclimatization and was calculated considering past temperature history, was the most predictive (i.e., provided the best goodness of fit) concerning the degree of severity, place of occurrence, and prefectures. RelTemp can be a complementary indicator of WBGT in countries and regions such as Japan, where seasonal differences in heat acclimatization must be considered. In addition, the findings of this study contribute to the development of a more accurate assessment of heatstroke risk.

Influence of liver stiffness heterogeneity on staging fibrosis in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Despite that hepatic fibrosis often affects the liver globally, spatial distribution can be heterogeneous. This study aimed to investigate the effect of liver stiffness (LS) heterogeneity on concordance between MR elastography (MRE)-based fibrosis staging and biopsy staging in patients with NAFLD. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We retrospectively evaluated data from 155 NAFLD patients who underwent liver biopsy and 3 Tesla MRE and undertook a retrospective validation study of 169 NAFLD patients at three hepatology centers. Heterogeneity of stiffness was assessed by measuring the range between minimum and maximum MRE-based LS measurement (LSM). Variability of LSM was defined as the stiffness range divided by the maximum stiffness value. The cohort was divided into two groups (homogenous or heterogeneous), according to whether variability was below or above the average for the training cohort. Based on histopathology and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, optimum LSM thresholds were determined for MRE-based fibrosis staging of stage 4 (4.43, kPa; AUROC, 0.89) and stage ≥3 (3.93, kPa; AUROC, 0.89). In total, 53 had LSM above the threshold for stage 4. Within this group, 30 had a biopsy stage of <4. In 86.7% of these discordant cases, variability of LSM was classified as heterogeneous. In MRE-based LSM stage ≥3, 88.9% of discordant cases were classified as heterogeneous. Results of the validation cohort were similar to those of the training cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Discordance between biopsy- and MRE-based fibrosis staging is associated with heterogeneity in LSM, as depicted with MRE.

Meta-analysis of the diagnostic accuracy of serum type IV collagen 7S concentration for the staging of liver fibrosis in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

AIM: We aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of the measurement of serum type IV collagen 7S (T4C7S) concentration for the staging of liver fibrosis in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). METHODS: A systematic search or published works was carried out using the PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science Core Collection databases for studies of the accuracy of serum T4C7S concentration for the staging of fibrosis using Fibrosis stage (F)0-4 in patients with NAFLD diagnosed by liver biopsy. RESULTS: Nine articles describing 1475 participants with NAFLD were included. For fibrosis ≥F1, with n = 849, summary estimates of sensitivity of 0.79, specificity of 0.69, and area under the curve (AUC) of 0.80 were obtained using a median T7C4S cut-off value of 4.6 ng/ml. For fibrosis ≥F2, with n = 1,090, summary estimates of sensitivity of 0.78, specificity of 0.78, and AUC of 0.84 were obtained using a median cut-off value of 4.9 ng/ml. For fibrosis ≥F3, with n = 1311 participants and a median cut-off value of 5.4 ng/ml, a pooled sensitivity of 0.82, specificity of 0.81, and AUC of 0.83 were obtained. For fibrosis ≥F4, with n = 753 and a median cut-off value of 6.6 ng/ml, a pooled sensitivity of 0.85, specificity of 0.81, and AUC of 0.85 were obtained. CONCLUSIONS: Serum T4C7S concentration was found to be an accurate method of staging liver fibrosis in patients with NAFLD.

M-PAST score is better than MAST score for the diagnosis of active fibrotic nonalcoholic steatohepatitis.

BACKGROUND: Clinical trials enroll patients with active fibrotic nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) (nonalcoholic fatty liver disease [NAFLD] activity score ≥ 4) and significant fibrosis (F ≥ 2); however, screening failure rates are high following biopsy. We developed new scores to identify active fibrotic NASH using FibroScan and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). METHODS: We undertook prospective primary (n = 176), retrospective validation (n = 169), and University of California San Diego (UCSD; n = 234) studies of liver biopsy-proven NAFLD. Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) using FibroScan or magnetic resonance elastography (MRE), controlled attenuation parameter (CAP), or proton density fat fraction (PDFF), and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) were combined to develop a two-step strategy-FibroScan-based LSM followed by CAP with AST (F-CAST) and MRE-based LSM followed by PDFF with AST (M-PAST)-and compared with FibroScan-AST (FAST) and MRI-AST (MAST) for diagnosing active fibrotic NASH. Each model was categorized using rule-in and rule-out criteria. RESULTS: Areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of F-CAST (0.826) and M-PAST (0.832) were significantly higher than those of FAST (0.744, p = 0.004) and MAST (0.710, p < 0.001). Following the rule-in criteria, positive predictive values of F-CAST (81.8%) and M-PAST (81.8%) were higher than those of FAST (73.5%) and MAST (70.0%). Following the rule-out criteria, negative predictive values of F-CAST (90.5%) and M-PAST (90.9%) were higher than those of FAST (84.0%) and MAST (73.9%). In the validation and UCSD cohorts, AUROCs did not differ significantly between F-CAST and FAST, but M-PAST had a higher diagnostic performance than MAST. CONCLUSIONS: The two-step strategy, especially M-PAST, showed reliability of rule-in/-out for active fibrotic NASH, with better predictive performance compared with MAST. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (number, UMIN000012757).

Real-world assessment of SmartExam, a novel FibroScan computational method: A retrospective single-center cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: SmartExam is a novel computational method compatible with FibroScan that uses a software called SmartDepth and continuous controlled attenuation parameter measurements to evaluate liver fibrosis and steatosis. This retrospective study compared the diagnostic accuracy of conventional and SmartExam-equipped FibroScan for liver stiffness measurement (LSM). METHODS: The liver stiffness and the associated controlled attenuation parameters of 167 patients were measured using conventional and SmartExam-Equipped FibroScan as well as reference methods like magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) and magnetic resonance imaging-based proton density fat fraction (MRI-PDFF) measurements to assess its diagnostic performance. M or XL probes were selected based on the probe-to-liver capsule distance for all FibroScan examinations. RESULTS: The liver stiffness and controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) correlation coefficients calculated from conventional and SmartExam-equipped FibroScan were 0.97 and 0.82, respectively. Using MRE/MRI-PDFF as a reference and the DeLong test for analysis, LSM and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for CAP measured by conventional and SmartExam-equipped FibroScan showed no significant difference. However, the SmartExam-equipped FibroScan measurement (33.6 s) took 1.4 times longer than conventional FibroScan (23.2 s). CONCLUSIONS: SmartExam has a high diagnostic performance comparable with that of conventional FibroScan. Because the results of the conventional and SmartExam-equipped FibroScan were strongly correlated, it can be considered useful for assessing the fibrosis stage and steatosis grade of the liver in clinical practice, with less variability but little longer measurement time compared with the conventional FibroScan.

Prediction of climate change impacts on heatstroke cases in Japan's 47 prefectures with the effect of long-term heat adaptation.

One of the negative consequences of increased air temperatures due to global warming is the associated increase in heat-related mortality and morbidity. Studies that focused on future predictions of heat-related morbidity do not consider the effect of long-term heat adaptation measures, nor do they use evidence-based methods. Therefore, this study aimed to predict the future heatstroke cases for all 47 prefectures of Japan, by considering long-term heat adaptation by translating current geographical differences in heat adaptation to future temporal heat adaptation. Predictions were conducted for age groups of 7-17, 18-64, and ≥65 years. The prediction period was set to a base period (1981-2000), mid-21st century (2031-2050), and the end of the 21st century (2081-2100). We found that the average heatstroke incidence (number of patients with heatstroke transported by ambulance per population) in Japan under five representative climate models and three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios increased by 2.92- for 7-17 years, 3.66- for 18-64 years, and 3.26-fold for ≥65 years at the end of the 21st century without heat adaptation. The corresponding numbers were 1.57 for 7-17 years, 1.77 for 18-64 years, and 1.69 for ≥65 years with heat adaptation. Furthermore, the average number of patients with heatstroke transported by ambulance (NPHTA) under all climate models and GHG emissions scenarios increased by 1.02- for 7-17 years, 1.76- for 18-64 years, and 5.50-fold for ≥65 years at the end of 21st century without heat adaptation, where demographic changes were considered. The corresponding numbers were 0.55 for 7-17 years, 0.82 for 18-64 years, and 2.74 for ≥65 years with heat adaptation. The heatstroke incidence, as well as the NPHTA, substantially decreased when heat adaptation was considered. Our method could be applicable to other regions across the globe.

Potential effect of heat adaptation on association between number of heatstroke patients transported by ambulance and wet bulb globe temperature in Japan.

This study analyzed the association between heatstroke incidence and daily maximum wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) for all 47 prefectures in Japan by age group and severity using time-series analysis, controlling for confounders, such as seasonality and long-term trends. With the obtained association, the relative risk between the reference WBGT (defined as the value at which heatstroke starts to increase) and the daily maximum WBGT at 30 °C (RRwbgt30) of each prefecture were calculated. For the heatstroke data, the daily number of heatstroke patients transported by ambulance at the prefecture level, provided by the Fire and Disaster Management Agency, was utilized. The analysis was conducted for age groups of 7-17 y, 18-64 y, and ≥65 y, and for severity of Deceased, Severe, Moderate (combined as DSM), and Mild. The analysis period was set from May 1 to September 30, 2015-2019. Finally, the correlation between RRwbgt30 and the average daily maximum WBGT during the analysis period (aveWBGTms) of each prefecture was analyzed to examine the regionality of heatstroke incidence. The result showed that RRwbgt30 is negatively correlated with aveWBGTms for the age group 18-64 y and ≥65 y (except for the age group 7-17 y) and for severity. The natural logarithm of the RRwbgt30 of all 47 prefectures ranged from 2.0 to 8.2 for the age group 7-17 y, 1.1 to 4.0 for the age group 18-64 y, 1.8 to 6.0 for the age group ≥65 y, and 1.0 to 3.6 for DSM, and 0.9 to 4.0 for Mild. This regionality can be attributed to the effects of heat adaptation, where people in hotter regions are accustomed to implementing measures against hot environments and are more heat acclimatized than people in cooler regions.

Daily temperature effects on under-five mortality in a tropical climate country and the role of local characteristics.

BACKGROUND: Climate change and its subsequent effects on temperature have raised global public health concerns. Although numerous epidemiological studies have shown the adverse health effects of temperature, the association remains unclear for children aged below five years old and those in tropical climate regions. METHODS: We conducted a two-stage time-stratified case-crossover study to examine the association between temperature and under-five mortality, spanning the period from 2014 to 2018 across all six regions in Malaysia. In the first stage, we estimated region-specific temperature-mortality associations using a conditional Poisson regression and distributed lag nonlinear models. We used a multivariate meta-regression model to pool the region-specific estimates and examine the potential role of local characteristics in the association, which includes geographical information, demographics, socioeconomic status, long-term temperature metrics, and healthcare access by region. RESULTS: Temperature in Malaysia ranged from 22 °C to 31 °C, with a mean of 27.6 °C. No clear seasonality was observed in under-five mortality. We found no strong evidence of the association between temperature and under-five mortality, with an "M-" shaped exposure-response curve. The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) was identified at 27.1 °C. Among several local characteristics, only education level and hospital bed rates reduced the residual heterogeneity in the association. However, effect modification by these variables were not significant. CONCLUSION: This study suggests a null association between temperature and under-five mortality in Malaysia, which has a tropical climate. The "M-" shaped pattern suggests that under-fives may be vulnerable to temperature changes, even with a small temperature change in reference to the MMT. However, the weak risks with a large uncertainty at extreme temperatures remained inconclusive. Potential roles of education level and hospital bed rate were statistically inconclusive.

Association between ambient temperature and cause-specific cardiovascular disease admissions in Japan: A nationwide study.

BACKGROUND: Substantial evidence suggests that non-optimal temperatures can increase the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and morbidity; however, limited studies have reported inconsistent results for hospital admissions depending on study locations, which also lack national-level investigations on cause-specific CVDs. METHODS: We performed a two-stage meta-regression analysis to examine the short-term associations between temperature and acute CVD hospital admissions by specific categories [i.e., ischemic heart disease (IHD), heart failure (HF), and stroke] in 47 prefectures of Japan from 2011 to 2018. First, we estimated the prefecture-specific associations using a time-stratified case-crossover design with a distributed lag nonlinear model. We then used a multivariate meta-regression model to obtain national average associations. RESULTS: During the study period, a total of 4,611,984 CVD admissions were reported. We found cold temperatures significantly increased the risk of total CVD admissions and cause-specific categories. Compared with the minimum hospitalization temperature (MHT) at the 98th percentile of temperature (29.9 °C), the cumulative relative risks (RRs) for cold (5th percentile, 1.7 °C) and heat (99th percentile, 30.5 °C) on total CVD were 1.226 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.195, 1.258] and 1.000 (95% CI: 0.998, 1.002), respectively. The RR for cold on HF [RR = 1.571 (95% CI: 1.487, 1.660)] was higher than those of IHD [RR = 1.119 (95% CI: 1.040, 1.204)] and stroke [RR = 1.107 (95% CI: 1.062, 1.155)], comparing to their cause-specific MHTs. We also observed that extreme heat increased the risk of HF with RR of 1.030 (95% CI: 1.007, 1.054). Subgroup analysis showed that the age group ≥85 years was more vulnerable to these non-optimal temperature risks. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicated that cold and heat exposure could increase the risk of hospital admissions for CVD, varying depending on the cause-specific categories, which may provide new evidence to reduce the burden of CVD.

Long-term trends in mortality risk associated with short-term exposure to air pollution in 10 Japanese cities between 1977 and 2015.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Short-term associations between air pollution and mortality have been well reported in Japan, but the historical changes in mortality risk remain unknown. We examined temporal changes in the mortality risks associated with short-term exposure to four criteria air pollutants in selected Japanese cities. METHODS: We collected daily mortality data for non-accidental causes (n = 5,748,206), cardiovascular (n = 1,938,743) and respiratory diseases (n = 777,266), and air pollutants (sulfur dioxide [SO2], nitrogen dioxide [NO2], suspended particulate matter [SPM], and oxidants [Ox]) in 10 cities from 1977 to 2015. We performed two-stage analysis with 5-year stratification to estimate the relative risk (RR) of mortality per 10-unit increase in the 2-day moving average of air pollutant concentrations. In the first stage, city-specific associations were assessed using a quasi-Poisson generalized linear regression model. In the second stage, city-specific estimates were pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. Linear trend and ratio of relative risks (RRR) were computed to examine temporal changes. RESULTS: When stratifying the analysis by every 5 years, average concentrations in each sub-period decreased for SO2, NO2, and SPM (14.2-2.3 ppb, 29.4-17.5 ppb, 52.1-20.6 µg/m3, respectively) but increased for Ox (29.1-39.1 ppb) over the study period. We found evidence of a negative linear trend in the risk of cardiovascular mortality associated with SPM across sub-periods. However, the risks of non-accidental and respiratory mortality per 10-unit increase in SPM concentration were significantly higher in the most recent period than in the earliest period. Other gaseous pollutants did not show such temporal risk change. The risks posed by these pollutants were slightly to moderately heterogeneous in the different cities. CONCLUSIONS: The mortality risks associated with short-term exposure to SPM changed, with different trends by cause of death, in 10 cities over 39 years whereas the risks for other gaseous pollutants were relatively stable.

Coarse Particulate Air Pollution and Daily Mortality: A Global Study in 205 Cities.

Rationale: The associations between ambient coarse particulate matter (PM2.5-10) and daily mortality are not fully understood on a global scale. Objectives: To evaluate the short-term associations between PM2.5-10 and total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries/regions worldwide. Methods: We collected daily mortality (total, cardiovascular, and respiratory) and air pollution data from 205 cities in 20 countries/regions. Concentrations of PM2.5-10 were computed as the difference between inhalable and fine PM. A two-stage time-series analytic approach was applied, with overdispersed generalized linear models and multilevel meta-analysis. We fitted two-pollutant models to test the independent effect of PM2.5-10 from copollutants (fine PM, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, ozone, and carbon monoxide). Exposure-response relationship curves were pooled, and regional analyses were conducted. Measurements and Main Results: A 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5-10 concentration on lag 0-1 day was associated with increments of 0.51% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.18%-0.84%), 0.43% (95% CI, 0.15%-0.71%), and 0.41% (95% CI, 0.06%-0.77%) in total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. The associations varied by country and region. These associations were robust to adjustment by all copollutants in two-pollutant models, especially for PM2.5. The exposure-response curves for total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality were positive, with steeper slopes at lower exposure ranges and without discernible thresholds. Conclusions: This study provides novel global evidence on the robust and independent associations between short-term exposure to ambient PM2.5-10 and total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, suggesting the need to establish a unique guideline or regulatory limit for daily concentrations of PM2.5-10.

Positive Association of Aggression with Ambient Temperature.

Background: Relatively little attention has been paid to the potential effects of rising temperatures on changes in human behavior that lead to health and social consequences, including aggression. This study investigated the association between ambient temperature and aggression using assault death data from Seoul, South Korea (1991-2020). Methods: We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover analysis based on conditional logistic regression to control for relevant covariates. The exposure-response curve was explored, and stratified analyses were conducted by season and sociodemographic characteristics. Results: The overall risk of assault deaths significantly increased by 1.4% per 1°C increase in ambient temperature. A positive curvilinear relationship was observed between ambient temperature and assault deaths, which flattened out at 23.6°C during the warm season. Furthermore, risk increases were higher in males, teenagers, and those with the least education. Conclusion: This study highlighted the importance of understanding the impact of rising temperatures on aggression in the context of climate change and public health.

Hot weather and heat extremes: health risks.

Hot ambient conditions and associated heat stress can increase mortality and morbidity, as well as increase adverse pregnancy outcomes and negatively affect mental health. High heat stress can also reduce physical work capacity and motor-cognitive performances, with consequences for productivity, and increase the risk of occupational health problems. Almost half of the global population and more than 1 billion workers are exposed to high heat episodes and about a third of all exposed workers have negative health effects. However, excess deaths and many heat-related health risks are preventable, with appropriate heat action plans involving behavioural strategies and biophysical solutions. Extreme heat events are becoming permanent features of summer seasons worldwide, causing many excess deaths. Heat-related morbidity and mortality are projected to increase further as climate change progresses, with greater risk associated with higher degrees of global warming. Particularly in tropical regions, increased warming might mean that physiological limits related to heat tolerance (survival) will be reached regularly and more often in coming decades. Climate change is interacting with other trends, such as population growth and ageing, urbanisation, and socioeconomic development, that can either exacerbate or ameliorate heat-related hazards. Urban temperatures are further enhanced by anthropogenic heat from vehicular transport and heat waste from buildings. Although there is some evidence of adaptation to increasing temperatures in high-income countries, projections of a hotter future suggest that without investment in research and risk management actions, heat-related morbidity and mortality are likely to increase.

Reducing the health effects of hot weather and heat extremes: from personal cooling strategies to green cities.

Heat extremes (ie, heatwaves) already have a serious impact on human health, with ageing, poverty, and chronic illnesses as aggravating factors. As the global community seeks to contend with even hotter weather in the future as a consequence of global climate change, there is a pressing need to better understand the most effective prevention and response measures that can be implemented, particularly in low-resource settings. In this Series paper, we describe how a future reliance on air conditioning is unsustainable and further marginalises the communities most vulnerable to the heat. We then show that a more holistic understanding of the thermal environment at the landscape and urban, building, and individual scales supports the identification of numerous sustainable opportunities to keep people cooler. We summarise the benefits (eg, effectiveness) and limitations of each identified cooling strategy, and recommend optimal interventions for settings such as aged care homes, slums, workplaces, mass gatherings, refugee camps, and playing sport. The integration of this information into well communicated heat action plans with robust surveillance and monitoring is essential for reducing the adverse health consequences of current and future extreme heat.

Ambient Particulate Air Pollution and Daily Mortality in 652 Cities.

BACKGROUND: The systematic evaluation of the results of time-series studies of air pollution is challenged by differences in model specification and publication bias. METHODS: We evaluated the associations of inhalable particulate matter (PM) with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 µm or less (PM10) and fine PM with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 µm or less (PM2.5) with daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries or regions. Daily data on mortality and air pollution were collected from 652 cities in 24 countries or regions. We used overdispersed generalized additive models with random-effects meta-analysis to investigate the associations. Two-pollutant models were fitted to test the robustness of the associations. Concentration-response curves from each city were pooled to allow global estimates to be derived. RESULTS: On average, an increase of 10 µg per cubic meter in the 2-day moving average of PM10 concentration, which represents the average over the current and previous day, was associated with increases of 0.44% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.39 to 0.50) in daily all-cause mortality, 0.36% (95% CI, 0.30 to 0.43) in daily cardiovascular mortality, and 0.47% (95% CI, 0.35 to 0.58) in daily respiratory mortality. The corresponding increases in daily mortality for the same change in PM2.5 concentration were 0.68% (95% CI, 0.59 to 0.77), 0.55% (95% CI, 0.45 to 0.66), and 0.74% (95% CI, 0.53 to 0.95). These associations remained significant after adjustment for gaseous pollutants. Associations were stronger in locations with lower annual mean PM concentrations and higher annual mean temperatures. The pooled concentration-response curves showed a consistent increase in daily mortality with increasing PM concentration, with steeper slopes at lower PM concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: Our data show independent associations between short-term exposure to PM10 and PM2.5 and daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality in more than 600 cities across the globe. These data reinforce the evidence of a link between mortality and PM concentration established in regional and local studies. (Funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and others.).

Direct Comparison of US and MR Elastography for Staging Liver Fibrosis in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: As alternatives to the expensive liver biopsy for assessing liver fibrosis stage in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), we directly compared the diagnostic abilities of magnetic resonance elastography (MRE), vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE), and two-dimensional shear wave elastography (2D-SWE). METHODS: Overall, 231 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD were included. Intra- and inter-observer reproducibility was analyzed using intraclass correlation coefficient in a sub-group of 70 participants, in whom liver stiffness measurement (LSM) was performed by an elastography expert and an ultrasound expert who was an elastography trainee on the same day. RESULTS: Valid LSMs were obtained for 227, 220, 204, and 201 patients using MRE, VCTE, 2D-SWE, and all three modalities combined, respectively. Although the area under the curve did not differ between the modalities for detecting stage ≥1, ≥2, and ≥3 liver fibrosis, it was higher for MRE than VCTE and 2D-SWE for stage 4. Sex was a significant predictor of discordance between VCTE and liver fibrosis stage. Skin-capsule distance and the ratio of the interquartile range of liver stiffness to the median were significantly associated with discordance between 2D-SWE and liver fibrosis stage. However, no factors were associated with discordance between MRE and liver fibrosis stage. Intra- and inter-observer reproducibility in detecting liver fibrosis was higher for MRE than VCTE and 2D-SWE. CONCLUSIONS: MRE, VCTE, and 2D-SWE demonstrated excellent diagnostic accuracy in detecting liver fibrosis in patients with NAFLD. MRE demonstrated the highest diagnostic accuracy for stage 4 detection and intra- and inter-observer reproducibility. UMIN Clinical Trials Registry No. UMIN000031491.