Development and external validation study of a melanoma risk prediction model incorporating clinically assessed naevi and solar lentigines.

BACKGROUND: Melanoma risk prediction models could be useful for matching preventive interventions to patients' risk. OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a model for incident first-primary cutaneous melanoma using clinically assessed risk factors. METHODS: We used unconditional logistic regression with backward selection from the Australian Melanoma Family Study (461 cases and 329 controls) in which age, sex and city of recruitment were kept in each step, and we externally validated it using the Leeds Melanoma Case-Control Study (960 cases and 513 controls). Candidate predictors included clinically assessed whole-body naevi and solar lentigines, and self-assessed pigmentation phenotype, sun exposure, family history and history of keratinocyte cancer. We evaluated the predictive strength and discrimination of the model risk factors using odds per age- and sex-adjusted SD (OPERA) and the area under curve (AUC), and calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. RESULTS: The final model included the number of naevi ≥ 2 mm in diameter on the whole body, solar lentigines on the upper back (a six-level scale), hair colour at age 18 years and personal history of keratinocyte cancer. Naevi was the strongest risk factor; the OPERA was 3·51 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2·71-4·54] in the Australian study and 2·56 (95% CI 2·23-2·95) in the Leeds study. The AUC was 0·79 (95% CI 0·76-0·83) in the Australian study and 0·73 (95% CI 0·70-0·75) in the Leeds study. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test P-value was 0·30 in the Australian study and < 0·001 in the Leeds study. CONCLUSIONS: This model had good discrimination and could be used by clinicians to stratify patients by melanoma risk for the targeting of preventive interventions. What's already known about this topic? Melanoma risk prediction models may be useful in prevention by tailoring interventions to personalized risk levels. For reasons of feasibility, time and cost many melanoma prediction models use self-assessed risk factors. However, individuals tend to underestimate their naevus numbers. What does this study add? We present a melanoma risk prediction model, which includes clinically-assessed whole-body naevi and solar lentigines, and self-assessed risk factors including pigmentation phenotype and history of keratinocyte cancer. This model performs well on discrimination, the model's ability to distinguish between individuals with and without melanoma, and may assist clinicians to stratify patients by melanoma risk for targeted preventive interventions.

Associations of pigmentary and naevus phenotype with melanoma risk in two populations with comparable ancestry but contrasting levels of ambient sun exposure.

BACKGROUND: People at high risk of developing melanoma are usually identified by pigmentary and naevus phenotypes. OBJECTIVE: We examined whether associations of these phenotypes with melanoma risk differed by ambient sun exposure or participant characteristics in two population-based, case-control studies with comparable ancestry but different ambient sun exposure. METHODS: Data were analysed from 616 cases and 496 controls from the Australian Melanoma Family Study and 2012 cases and 504 controls from the Leeds (UK) case-control study. Questionnaire, interview and dermatological skin examination data were collected using the same measurement protocols. Relative risks were estimated as odds ratios using unconditional logistic regression, adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS: Hair and skin colour were the strongest pigmentary phenotype risk factors. All associations of pigmentary phenotype with melanoma risk were similar across countries. The median number of clinically assessed naevi was approximately three times higher in Australia than Leeds, but the relative risks for melanoma associated with each additional common or dysplastic naevus were higher for Leeds than Australia, especially for naevi on the upper and lower limbs. Higher naevus counts on the head and neck were associated with a stronger relative risk for melanoma for women than men. The two countries had similar relative risks for melanoma based on self-reported naevus density categories, but personal perceptions of naevus number differed by country. There was no consistent evidence of interactions between phenotypes on risk. CONCLUSIONS: Classifying people at high risk of melanoma based on their number of naevi should ideally take into account their country of residence, type of counts (clinical or self-reported), body site on which the naevus counts are measured and sex. The presence of naevi may be a stronger indicator of a genetic predisposition in the UK than in Australia based on less opportunity for sun exposure to influence naevus development.

Novel associations between blood DNA methylation and body mass index in middle-aged and older adults.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: There is increasing evidence of a relationship between blood DNA methylation and body mass index (BMI). We aimed to assess associations of BMI with individual methylation measures (CpGs) through a cross-sectional genome-wide DNA methylation association study and a longitudinal analysis of repeated measurements over time. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Using the Illumina Infinium HumanMethylation450 BeadChip, DNA methylation measures were determined in baseline peripheral blood samples from 5361 adults recruited to the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS) and selected for nested case-control studies, 2586 because they were subsequently diagnosed with cancer (cases) and 2775 as controls. For a subset of 1088 controls, these measures were repeated using blood samples collected at wave 2 follow-up, a median of 11 years later; weight was measured at both time points. Associations between BMI and blood DNA methylation were assessed using linear mixed-effects regression models adjusted for batch effects and potential confounders. These were applied to cases and controls separately, with results combined through fixed-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Cross-sectional analysis identified 310 CpGs associated with BMI with P<1.0 × 10-7, 225 of which had not been reported previously. Of these 225 novel associations, 172 were replicated (P<0.05) using the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. We also replicated using MCCS data (P<0.05) 335 of 392 associations previously reported with P<1.0 × 10-7, including 60 that had not been replicated before. Associations between change in BMI and change in methylation were observed for 34 of the 310 strongest signals in our cross-sectional analysis, including 7 that had not been replicated using the ARIC study. CONCLUSIONS: Together, these findings suggest that BMI is associated with blood DNA methylation at a large number of CpGs across the genome, several of which are located in or near genes involved in ATP-binding cassette transportation, tumour necrosis factor signalling, insulin resistance and lipid metabolism.

Predictors and consequences of health anxiety symptoms: a novel twin modeling study.

OBJECTIVE: The question of how to best conceptualize health anxiety (HA) from a diagnostic and etiological perspective remains debated. The aim was to examine the relationship between HA and the symptoms of anxiety and obsessive-compulsive-related disorders in a normative twin population. METHOD: Four hundred and ninety-six monozygotic adult twin pairs from the Australian Twin Registry participated in the study (age, 34.4 ± 7.72 years; 59% females). Validated scales were used to assess each domain. We applied a twin regression methodology-ICE FALCON-to determine whether there was evidence consistent with 'causal' relationships between HA and other symptoms by fitting and comparing model estimates. RESULTS: Estimates were consistent with higher levels of obsessing ('unwanted thoughts') (P = 0.008), social anxiety (P = 0.03), and body dysmorphic symptoms (P = 0.008) causing higher levels of HA symptoms, and with higher levels of HA symptoms causing higher levels of physical/somatic anxiety symptoms (P = 0.001). CONCLUSION: Obsessional thoughts, body dysmorphic concerns, and social anxiety symptoms may have a causal influence on HA. To report physical/somatic anxiety appears to be a consequence of the underlying presence of HA-related fears. Should our results be confirmed by longitudinal studies, the evaluation and treatment of HA may benefit from the consideration of these identified risk factors.

Multigene testing of moderate-risk genes: be mindful of the missense.

BACKGROUND: Moderate-risk genes have not been extensively studied, and missense substitutions in them are generally returned to patients as variants of uncertain significance lacking clearly defined risk estimates. The fraction of early-onset breast cancer cases carrying moderate-risk genotypes and quantitative methods for flagging variants for further analysis have not been established. METHODS: We evaluated rare missense substitutions identified from a mutation screen of ATM, CHEK2, MRE11A, RAD50, NBN, RAD51, RINT1, XRCC2 and BARD1 in 1297 cases of early-onset breast cancer and 1121 controls via scores from Align-Grantham Variation Grantham Deviation (GVGD), combined annotation dependent depletion (CADD), multivariate analysis of protein polymorphism (MAPP) and PolyPhen-2. We also evaluated subjects by polygenotype from 18 breast cancer risk SNPs. From these analyses, we estimated the fraction of cases and controls that reach a breast cancer OR≥2.5 threshold. RESULTS: Analysis of mutation screening data from the nine genes revealed that 7.5% of cases and 2.4% of controls were carriers of at least one rare variant with an average OR≥2.5. 2.1% of cases and 1.2% of controls had a polygenotype with an average OR≥2.5. CONCLUSIONS: Among early-onset breast cancer cases, 9.6% had a genotype associated with an increased risk sufficient to affect clinical management recommendations. Over two-thirds of variants conferring this level of risk were rare missense substitutions in moderate-risk genes. Placement in the estimated OR≥2.5 group by at least two of these missense analysis programs should be used to prioritise variants for further study. Panel testing often creates more heat than light; quantitative approaches to variant prioritisation and classification may facilitate more efficient clinical classification of variants.

Mould-sensitized adults have lower Th2 cytokines and a higher prevalence of asthma than those sensitized to other aeroallergens.

BACKGROUND: Evidence suggests that specific allergen sensitizations are associated with different allergic diseases which may reflect different underlying immune profiles. We aimed to examine the cytokine profiles of individuals sensitized to eight common aeroallergens. METHODS: We used data from the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study a population-based cohort study of 45-year-olds. Serum cytokines (IL-4, IL-5, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, TNF-α) were measured in 1157 subjects using the LINCOplex assays. Participants underwent skin prick testing for house dust mite, cat, grasses and moulds. Multivariable linear regression was used to compare serum cytokine levels between sensitized and nonatopic subjects. RESULTS: The prevalence of allergic sensitization to any aeroallergen was 51% (95% CI 47-54). Being sensitized to any aeroallergen was strongly associated with current asthma (OR = 3.7, 95% CI 2.6-5.3), and being sensitized to any moulds was associated with a very high risk of current asthma (OR = 6.40, 95% CI 4.06-10.1). The geometric mean (GM) levels of Th2 cytokines (IL-4, IL-5 and IL-6) for adults sensitized to Cladosporium were significantly lower than the levels for nonatopic individuals (IL-4 ratio of GMs = 0.25, 95% CI 0.10-0.62, P = 0.003; IL-5 GM = 0.55, 95% CI 0.30-0.99, P = 0.05; and IL-6 GM = 0.50, 95% CI 0.24-1.07, P = 0.07). Individuals sensitized to other aeroallergens all showed elevated Th2 cytokine levels. CONCLUSION: Our study is the first large population-based study to demonstrate reduced Th2 cytokines levels in people sensitized to mould. Underlying biological mechanisms driving allergic inflammatory responses in adults sensitized to moulds may differ from those sensitized to other aeroallergens. These findings suggest that it may be necessary to tailor treatments in individuals sensitized to moulds compared with other aeroallergens in order to optimize outcomes.

Identification of STOML2 as a putative novel asthma risk gene associated with IL6R.

BACKGROUND: Functional variants in the interleukin-6 receptor gene (IL6R) are associated with asthma risk. We hypothesized that genes co-expressed with IL6R might also be regulated by genetic polymorphisms that are associated with asthma risk. The aim of this study was to identify such genes. METHODS: To identify genes whose expression was correlated with that of IL6R, we analyzed gene expression levels generated for 373 human lymphoblastoid cell lines by the Geuvadis consortium and for 38 hematopoietic cell types by the Differentiation Map Portal (DMAP) project. Genes correlated with IL6R were then screened for nearby single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that were significantly associated with both variation in gene expression levels (eSNPs) and asthma risk. RESULTS: We identified 90 genes with expression levels correlated with those of IL6R and that also had a nearby eSNP associated with disease risk in a published asthma GWAS (N = 20 776). For 16 (18%) genes, the association between the eSNP and asthma risk replicated with the same direction of effect in a further independent published asthma GWAS (N = 27 378). Among the top replicated associations (FDR < 0.05) were eSNPs for four known (IL18R1, IL18RAP, BCL6, and STAT6) and one putative novel asthma risk gene, stomatin-like protein 2 (STOML2). The expression of STOML2 was negatively correlated with IL6R, while eSNPs that increased the expression of STOML2 were associated with an increased asthma risk. CONCLUSION: The expression of STOML2, a gene that plays a key role in mitochondrial function and T-cell activation, is associated with both IL-6 signaling and asthma risk.

The effects of stress-tension on depression and anxiety symptoms: evidence from a novel twin modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Negative mood states are composed of symptoms of depression and anxiety, and by a third factor related to stress, tension and irritability. We sought to clarify the nature of the relationships between the factors by studying twin pairs. METHOD: A total of 503 monozygotic twin pairs completed the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales (DASS), an instrument that assesses symptoms of depression, anxiety and stress-tension. We applied a recently developed twin regression methodology - Inference about Causation from Examination of FAmiliaL CONfounding (ICE FALCON) - to test for evidence consistent with the existence of 'causal' influences between the DASS factors. RESULTS: There was evidence consistent with the stress-tension factor having a causal influence on both the depression (p < 0.0001) and anxiety factors (p = 0.001), and for the depression factor having a causal influence on the anxiety factor (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest a critical role for stress-tension in the structure of negative mood states, and that interventions that target it may be particularly effective in reducing depression and anxiety symptoms.

Rare mutations in XRCC2 increase the risk of breast cancer.

An exome-sequencing study of families with multiple breast-cancer-affected individuals identified two families with XRCC2 mutations, one with a protein-truncating mutation and one with a probably deleterious missense mutation. We performed a population-based case-control mutation-screening study that identified six probably pathogenic coding variants in 1,308 cases with early-onset breast cancer and no variants in 1,120 controls (the severity grading was p < 0.02). We also performed additional mutation screening in 689 multiple-case families. We identified ten breast-cancer-affected families with protein-truncating or probably deleterious rare missense variants in XRCC2. Our identification of XRCC2 as a breast cancer susceptibility gene thus increases the proportion of breast cancers that are associated with homologous recombination-DNA-repair dysfunction and Fanconi anemia and could therefore benefit from specific targeted treatments such as PARP (poly ADP ribose polymerase) inhibitors. This study demonstrates the power of massively parallel sequencing for discovering susceptibility genes for common, complex diseases.

Increased COX-2 expression in epithelial and stromal cells of high mammographic density tissues and in a xenograft model of mammographic density.

Mammographic density (MD) adjusted for age and body mass index is one of the strongest known risk factors for breast cancer. Given the high attributable risk of MD for breast cancer, chemoprevention with a safe and available agent that reduces MD and breast cancer risk would be beneficial. Cox-2 has been implicated in MD-related breast cancer risk, and was increased in stromal cells in high MD tissues in one study. Our study assessed differential Cox-2 expression in epithelial and stromal cells in paired samples of high and low MD human breast tissue, and in a validated xenograft biochamber model of MD. We also examined the effects of endocrine treatment upon Cox-2 expression in high and low MD tissues in the MD xenograft model. Paired high and low MD human breast tissue samples were immunostained for Cox-2, then assessed for differential expression and staining intensity in epithelial and stromal cells. High and low MD human breast tissues were separately maintained in biochambers in mice treated with Tamoxifen, oestrogen or placebo implants, then assessed for percentage Cox-2 staining in epithelial and stromal cells. Percentage Cox-2 staining was greater for both epithelial (p = 0.01) and stromal cells (p < 0.0001) of high compared with low MD breast tissues. In high MD biochamber tissues, percentage Cox-2 staining was greater in stromal cells of oestrogen-treated versus placebo-treated tissues (p = 0.05).

Hi-Plex targeted sequencing is effective using DNA derived from archival dried blood spots.

Many genetic epidemiology resources have collected dried blood spots (predominantly as Guthrie Cards) as an economical and efficient means of archiving sources of DNA, conferring great value to genetic screening methods that are compatible with this medium. We applied Hi-Plex to screen the breast cancer predisposition gene PALB2 in 93 Guthrie Card-derived DNA specimens previously characterized for PALB2 genetic variants via DNA derived from lymphoblastoid cell lines, whole blood, and buffy coat. Of the 93 archival Guthrie Card-derived DNAs, 92 (99%) were processed successfully and sequenced using approximately half of a MiSeq run. From these 92 DNAs, all 59 known variants were detected and no false-positive variant calls were yielded. Fully 98.13% of amplicons (5417/5520) were represented within 15-fold of the median coverage (2786 reads), and 99.98% of amplicons (5519/5520) were represented at a depth of 10 read-pairs or greater. With Hi-Plex, we show for the first time that a High-Plex amplicon-based massively parallel sequencing (MPS) system can be applied effectively to DNA prepared from dried blood spot archival specimens and, as such, can dramatically increase the scopes of both method and resource.

Reproductive risk factors and oestrogen/progesterone receptor-negative breast cancer in the Breast Cancer Family Registry.

BACKGROUND: Oestrogen receptor (ER)- and progesterone receptor (PR)-negative (ER-PR-) breast cancer is associated with poorer prognosis compared with other breast cancer subtypes. High parity has been associated with an increased risk of ER-PR- cancer, but emerging evidence suggests that breastfeeding may reduce this risk. Whether this potential breastfeeding benefit extends to women at high risk of breast cancer remains critical to understand for prevention. METHODS: Using population-based ascertained cases (n=4011) and controls (2997) from the Breast Cancer Family Registry, we examined reproductive risk factors in relation to ER and PR status. RESULTS: High parity (≥3 live births) without breastfeeding was positively associated only with ER-PR- tumours (odds ratio (OR)=1.57, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.10-2.24); there was no association with parity in women who breastfed (OR=0.93, 95% CI 0.71-1.22). Across all race/ethnicities, associations for ER-PR- cancer were higher among women who did not breastfeed than among women who did. Oral contraceptive (OC) use before 1975 was associated with an increased risk of ER-PR- cancer only (OR=1.32, 95% CI 1.04-1.67). For women who began OC use in 1975 or later there was no increased risk. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support that there are modifiable factors for ER-PR- breast cancer and that breastfeeding in particular may mitigate the increased risk of ER-PR- cancers seen from multiparity.

FGF receptor genes and breast cancer susceptibility: results from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer is one of the most common malignancies in women. Genome-wide association studies have identified FGFR2 as a breast cancer susceptibility gene. Common variation in other fibroblast growth factor (FGF) receptors might also modify risk. We tested this hypothesis by studying genotyped single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and imputed SNPs in FGFR1, FGFR3, FGFR4 and FGFRL1 in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. METHODS: Data were combined from 49 studies, including 53 835 cases and 50 156 controls, of which 89 050 (46 450 cases and 42 600 controls) were of European ancestry, 12 893 (6269 cases and 6624 controls) of Asian and 2048 (1116 cases and 932 controls) of African ancestry. Associations with risk of breast cancer, overall and by disease sub-type, were assessed using unconditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Little evidence of association with breast cancer risk was observed for SNPs in the FGF receptor genes. The strongest evidence in European women was for rs743682 in FGFR3; the estimated per-allele odds ratio was 1.05 (95% confidence interval=1.02-1.09, P=0.0020), which is substantially lower than that observed for SNPs in FGFR2. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that common variants in the other FGF receptors are not associated with risk of breast cancer to the degree observed for FGFR2.

Mammographic density-a review on the current understanding of its association with breast cancer.

There has been considerable recent interest in the genetic, biological and epidemiological basis of mammographic density (MD), and the search for causative links between MD and breast cancer (BC) risk. This report will critically review the current literature on MD and summarize the current evidence for its association with BC. Keywords 'mammographic dens*', 'dense mammary tissue' or 'percent dens*' were used to search the existing literature in English on PubMed and Medline. All reports were critically analyzed. The data were assigned to one of the following aspects of MD: general association with BC, its relationship with the breast hormonal milieu, the cellular basis of MD, the generic variations of MD, and its significance in the clinical setting. MD adjusted for age, and BMI is associated with increased risk of BC diagnosis, advanced tumour stage at diagnosis and increased risk of both local recurrence and second primary cancers. The MD measures that predict BC risk have high heritability, and to date several genetic markers associated with BC risk have been found to also be associated with these MD risk predictors. Change in MD could be a predictor of the extent of chemoprevention with tamoxifen. Although the biological and genetic pathways that determine and perhaps modulate MD remain largely unresolved, significant inroads are being made into the understanding of MD, which may lead to benefits in clinical screening, assessment and treatment strategies. This review provides a timely update on the current understanding of MD's association with BC risk.

Estimating risks for variants of unknown significance according to their predicted pathogenicity classes with application to BRCA1.

Sequence-based testing of disease-susceptibility genes has identified many variants of unknown significance (VUSs) whose pathogenicity is unknown at the time of their measurement. Female breast cancer cases aged 20-49 years at diagnosis and who have VUSs in BRCA1 and no mutations in BRCA2 have previously been identified through the population-based Los Angeles County Cancer Surveillance Program. These nominal BRCA1 VUSs have been classified as "low," "medium," and "high" risk by four classification methods: Align-GVGD, Polyphen, Grantham matrix scores, and sequence conservation in mammalian species. Average hazard ratios (HRs) for classes of variants, i.e., the age-specific incidences of cancer for carriers of such variants divided by the population incidences, were estimated from the cancer family histories of first- and second-degree relatives of the index cases using modified segregation analysis. The study sample comprised 270 index cases and 4,543 of their relatives. There was weak evidence that the risk of breast cancer increases with the degree of sequence conservation (P = 0.03) and that missense variants at highly conserved sites are associated with a 5.6-fold (95 % confidence interval 1.4-22.2; P = 0.05) increased incidence of breast cancer. An upper bound of 2.3 is given for the average breast cancer HRs corresponding to variants classified as "low risk" by any of the four VUS classification methods. In summary, we have given a method to estimate cancer risks for groups of VUSs by combining existing classification methods with traditional penetrance analyses. This analysis suggests that classification methods for BRCA1 variants based on sequence conservation might be useful in a clinical setting. We have shown in principle that our method can be used to classify VUSs into clinically useful risk categories, but our specific findings should not be put into clinical practice unless confirmed by larger studies.

Effects of Tamoxifen and oestrogen on histology and radiographic density in high and low mammographic density human breast tissues maintained in murine tissue engineering chambers.

Mammographic density (MD) is a strong risk factor for breast cancer. It is altered by exogenous endocrine treatments, including hormone replacement therapy and Tamoxifen. Such agents also modify breast cancer (BC) risk. However, the biomolecular basis of how systemic endocrine therapy modifies MD and MD-associated BC risk is poorly understood. This study aims to determine whether our xenograft biochamber model can be used to study the effectiveness of therapies aimed at modulating MD, by examine the effects of Tamoxifen and oestrogen on histologic and radiographic changes in high and low MD tissues maintained within the biochamber model. High and low MD human tissues were precisely sampled under radiographic guidance from prophylactic mastectomy fresh specimens of high-risk women, then inserted into separate vascularized murine biochambers. The murine hosts were concurrently implanted with Tamoxifen, oestrogen or placebo pellets, and the high and low MD biochamber tissues maintained in the murine host environment for 3 months, before the high and low MD biochamber tissues were harvested for histologic and radiographic analyses. The radiographic density of high MD tissue maintained in murine biochambers was decreased in Tamoxifen-treated mice compared to oestrogen-treated mice (p = 0.02). Tamoxifen treatment of high MD tissue in SCID mice led to a decrease in stromal (p = 0.009), and an increase in adipose (p = 0.023) percent areas, compared to placebo-treated mice. No histologic or radiographic differences were observed in low MD biochamber tissue with any treatment. High MD biochamber tissues maintained in mice implanted with Tamoxifen, oestrogen or placebo pellets had dynamic and measurable histologic compositional and radiographic changes. This further validates the dynamic nature of the MD xenograft model, and suggests the biochamber model may be useful for assessing the underlying molecular pathways of Tamoxifen-reduced MD, and in testing of other pharmacologic interventions in a preclinical model of high MD.

Estimating single nucleotide polymorphism associations using pedigree data: applications to breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Pedigrees with multiple genotyped family members have been underutilised in breast cancer (BC) genetic-association studies. We developed a pedigree-based analytical framework to characterise single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) associations with BC risk using data from 736 BC families ascertained through multiple affected individuals. On average, eight family members had been genotyped for 24 SNPs previously associated with BC. METHODS: Breast cancer incidence was modelled on the basis of SNP effects and residual polygenic effects. Relative risk (RR) estimates were obtained by maximising the retrospective likelihood (RL) of observing the family genotypes conditional on all disease phenotypes. Models were extended to assess parent-of-origin effects (POEs). RESULTS: Thirteen SNPs were significantly associated with BC under the pedigree RL approach. This approach yielded estimates consistent with those from large population-based studies. Logistic regression models ignoring pedigree structure generally gave larger RRs and association P-values. SNP rs3817198 in LSP1, previously shown to exhibit POE, yielded maternal and paternal RR estimates that were similar to those previously reported (paternal RR=1.12 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.99-1.27), P=0.081, one-sided P=0.04; maternal RR=0.94 (95% CI: 0.84-1.06), P=0.33). No other SNP exhibited POE. CONCLUSION: Our pedigree-based methods provide a valuable and efficient tool for characterising genetic associations with BC risk or other diseases and can complement population-based studies.

Prospective validation of the breast cancer risk prediction model BOADICEA and a batch-mode version BOADICEACentre.

BACKGROUND: Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm (BOADICEA) is a risk prediction algorithm that can be used to compute estimates of age-specific risk of breast cancer. It is uncertain whether BOADICEA performs adequately for populations outside the United Kingdom. METHODS: Using a batch mode version of BOADICEA that we developed (BOADICEACentre), we calculated the cumulative 10-year invasive breast cancer risk for 4176 Australian women of European ancestry unaffected at baseline from 1601 case and control families in the Australian Breast Cancer Family Registry. Based on 115 incident breast cancers, we investigated calibration, discrimination (using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves) and accuracy at the individual level. RESULTS: The ratio of expected to observed number of breast cancers was 0.92 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.76-1.10). The E/O ratios by subgroups of the participant's relationship to the index case and by the reported number of affected relatives ranged between 0.83 and 0.98 and all 95% CIs included 1.00. The area under the ROC curve was 0.70 (95% CI 0.66-0.75) and there was no evidence of systematic under- or over-dispersion (P=0.2). CONCLUSION: BOADICEA is well calibrated for Australian women, and had good discrimination and accuracy at the individual level.

Tumour morphology predicts PALB2 germline mutation status.

BACKGROUND: Population-based studies of breast cancer have estimated that at least some PALB2 mutations are associated with high breast cancer risk. For women carrying PALB2 mutations, knowing their carrier status could be useful in directing them towards effective cancer risk management and therapeutic strategies. We sought to determine whether morphological features of breast tumours can predict PALB2 germline mutation status. METHODS: Systematic pathology review was conducted on breast tumours from 28 female carriers of PALB2 mutations (non-carriers of other known high-risk mutations, recruited through various resources with varying ascertainment) and on breast tumours from a population-based sample of 828 Australian women diagnosed before the age of 60 years (which included 40 BRCA1 and 18 BRCA2 mutation carriers). Tumour morphological features of the 28 PALB2 mutation carriers were compared with those of 770 women without high-risk mutations. RESULTS: Tumours arising in PALB2 mutation carriers were associated with minimal sclerosis (odds ratio (OR)=19.7; 95% confidence interval (CI)=6.0-64.6; P=5 × 10(-7)). Minimal sclerosis was also a feature that distinguished PALB2 mutation carriers from BRCA1 (P=0.05) and BRCA2 (P=0.04) mutation carriers. CONCLUSION: This study identified minimal sclerosis to be a predictor of germline PALB2 mutation status. Morphological review can therefore facilitate the identification of women most likely to carry mutations in PALB2.