The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on community non-SARS-CoV-2 respiratory infections in preschool children.

BACKGROUND: Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the pandemic were mainly studied for severe outcomes. Among children, most of the burden of respiratory infections is related to infections which are not medically attended. The perspective on infections in the community setting is necessary to understand the effects of the pandemic on non-pharmaceutical interventions. METHODS: In the unique prospective LoewenKIDS cohort study, we compared the true monthly incidence of self-reported acute respiratory infections (ARI) in about 350 participants (aged 3-4 years old) between October 2019 to March 2020 (pre-pandemic period) and October 2020 to March 2021 (pandemic period). Parents reported children's symptoms using a diary. Parents were asked to take a nasal swab of their child during all respiratory symptoms. We analysed 718 swabs using Multiplex PCR for 25 common respiratory viruses and bacteria. RESULTS: During the pre-pandemic period, on average 44.6% (95% CI: 39.5-49.8%) of children acquired at least one ARI per month compared to 19.9% (95% CI: 11.1-28.7%) during the pandemic period (Incidence Rate Ratio = 0.47; 95% CI: 0.41-0.54). The detection of influenza virus decreased absolute by 96%, respiratory syncytial virus by 65%, metapneumovirus by 95%, parainfluenza virus by 100%, human enterovirus by 96% and human bocavirus by 70% when comparing the pre-pandemic to the pandemic period. However, rhinoviruses were nearly unaffected by NPI. Co-detection (detection of more than one virus in a single symptomatic swab) was common in the pre-pandemic period (222 of 390 samples with viral detection; 56.9%) and substantially less common during the pandemic period (46 of 216 samples; 21.3%). CONCLUSION: Non-pharmaceutical interventions strongly reduced the incidence of all respiratory infections in preschool children but did not affect rhinovirus.

Effects of incomplete inter-hospital network data on the assessment of transmission dynamics of hospital-acquired infections.

In the year 2020, there were 105 different statutory insurance companies in Germany with heterogeneous regional coverage. Obtaining data from all insurance companies is challenging, so that it is likely that projects will have to rely on data not covering the whole population. Consequently, the study of epidemic spread in hospital referral networks using data-driven models may be biased. We studied this bias using data from three German regional insurance companies covering four federal states: AOK (historically "general local health insurance company", but currently only the abbreviation is used) Lower Saxony (in Federal State of Lower Saxony), AOK Bavaria (in Bavaria), and AOK PLUS (in Thuringia and Saxony). To understand how incomplete data influence network characteristics and related epidemic simulations, we created sampled datasets by randomly dropping a proportion of patients from the full datasets and replacing them with random copies of the remaining patients to obtain scale-up datasets to the original size. For the sampled and scale-up datasets, we calculated several commonly used network measures, and compared them to those derived from the original data. We found that the network measures (degree, strength and closeness) were rather sensitive to incompleteness. Infection prevalence as an outcome from the applied susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) model was fairly robust against incompleteness. At incompleteness levels as high as 90% of the original datasets the prevalence estimation bias was below 5% in scale-up datasets. Consequently, a coverage as low as 10% of the local population of the federal state population was sufficient to maintain the relative bias in prevalence below 10% for a wide range of transmission parameters as encountered in clinical settings. Our findings are reassuring that despite incomplete coverage of the population, German health insurance data can be used to study effects of patient traffic between institutions on the spread of pathogens within healthcare networks.

Relevance of intra-hospital patient movements for the spread of healthcare-associated infections within hospitals - a mathematical modeling study.

The aim of this study is to analyze patient movement patterns between hospital departments to derive the underlying intra-hospital movement network, and to assess if movement patterns differ between patients at high or low risk of colonization. For that purpose, we analyzed patient electronic medical record data from five hospitals to extract information on risk stratification and patient intra-hospital movements. Movement patterns were visualized as networks, and network centrality measures were calculated. Next, using an agent-based model where agents represent patients and intra-hospital patient movements were explicitly modeled, we simulated the spread of multidrug resistant enterobacteriacae (MDR-E) inside a hospital. Risk stratification of patients according to certain ICD-10 codes revealed that length of stay, patient age, and mean number of movements per admission were higher in the high-risk groups. Movement networks in all hospitals displayed a high variability among departments concerning their network centrality and connectedness with a few highly connected departments and many weakly connected peripheral departments. Simulating the spread of a pathogen in one hospital network showed positive correlation between department prevalence and network centrality measures. This study highlights the importance of intra-hospital patient movements and their possible impact on pathogen spread. Targeting interventions to departments of higher (weighted) degree may help to control the spread of MDR-E. Moreover, when the colonization status of patients coming from different departments is unknown, a ranking system based on department centralities may be used to design more effective interventions that mitigate pathogen spread.

Individual social contact data and population mobility data as early markers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics during the first wave in Germany-an analysis based on the COVIMOD study.

BACKGROUND: The effect of contact reduction measures on infectious disease transmission can only be assessed indirectly and with considerable delay. However, individual social contact data and population mobility data can offer near real-time proxy information. The aim of this study is to compare social contact data and population mobility data with respect to their ability to reflect transmission dynamics during the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Germany. METHODS: We quantified the change in social contact patterns derived from self-reported contact survey data collected by the German COVIMOD study from 04/2020 to 06/2020 (compared to the pre-pandemic period from previous studies) and estimated the percentage mean reduction over time. We compared these results as well as the percentage mean reduction in population mobility data (corrected for pre-pandemic mobility) with and without the introduction of scaling factors and specific weights for different types of contacts and mobility to the relative reduction in transmission dynamics measured by changes in R values provided by the German Public Health Institute. RESULTS: We observed the largest reduction in social contacts (90%, compared to pre-pandemic data) in late April corresponding to the strictest contact reduction measures. Thereafter, the reduction in contacts dropped continuously to a minimum of 73% in late June. Relative reduction of infection dynamics derived from contact survey data underestimated the one based on reported R values in the time of strictest contact reduction measures but reflected it well thereafter. Relative reduction of infection dynamics derived from mobility data overestimated the one based on reported R values considerably throughout the study. After the introduction of a scaling factor, specific weights for different types of contacts and mobility reduced the mean absolute percentage error considerably; in all analyses, estimates based on contact data reflected measured R values better than those based on mobility. CONCLUSIONS: Contact survey data reflected infection dynamics better than population mobility data, indicating that both data sources cover different dimensions of infection dynamics. The use of contact type-specific weights reduced the mean absolute percentage errors to less than 1%. Measuring the changes in mobility alone is not sufficient for understanding the changes in transmission dynamics triggered by public health measures.

Modelling pathogen spread in a healthcare network: Indirect patient movements.

Inter-hospital patient transfers (direct transfers) between healthcare facilities have been shown to contribute to the spread of pathogens in a healthcare network. However, the impact of indirect transfers (patients re-admitted from the community to the same or different hospital) is not well studied. This work aims to study the contribution of indirect transfers to the spread of pathogens in a healthcare network. To address this aim, a hybrid network-deterministic model to simulate the spread of multiresistant pathogens in a healthcare system was developed for the region of Lower Saxony (Germany). The model accounts for both, direct and indirect transfers of patients. Intra-hospital pathogen transmission is governed by a SIS model expressed by a system of ordinary differential equations. Our results show that the proposed model reproduces the basic properties of healthcare-associated pathogen spread. They also show the importance of indirect transfers: restricting the pathogen spread to direct transfers only leads to 4.2% system wide prevalence. However, adding indirect transfers leads to an increase in the overall prevalence by a factor of 4 (18%). In addition, we demonstrated that the final prevalence in the individual healthcare facilities depends on average length of stay in a way described by a non-linear concave function. Moreover, we demonstrate that the network parameters of the model may be derived from administrative admission/discharge records. In particular, they are sufficient to obtain inter-hospital transfer probabilities, and to express the patients' transfers as a Markov process. Using the proposed model, we show that indirect transfers of patients are equally or even more important as direct transfers for the spread of pathogens in a healthcare network.

[Occurrence of bronchial asthma and age at initial asthma diagnosis-first results of the German National Cohort]. / Häufigkeit von Asthma bronchiale und Alter bei der Erstdiagnose ­ erste Ergebnisse der NAKO Gesundheitsstudie.

BACKGROUND: Asthma is one of the most common chronic diseases in both children and adults. Asthma first occurring in adulthood (adult-onset asthma, AOA) is associated with poorer prognosis compared to childhood-onset asthma (COA), which urgently calls for more research in this area. The aim of this work was to analyze the data on asthma collected in the German National Cohort and compare it with the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults (DEGS), in particular regarding AOA. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Our analysis was based on the dataset of the main questionnaire at mid-term of the German National Cohort baseline examination, comprising 101,723 participants. Variables considered in the analyses were self-reported diagnosis of asthma, age at first diagnosis, asthma treatment in the past 12 months, age, and sex. RESULTS: In the midterm dataset, 8.7% of women and 7.0% of men in the German National Cohort reported that they had ever been diagnosed with asthma. Approximately one third of participants with asthma received their initial diagnosis before their 18th birthday. COA affected 2.2% of women and 2.8% of men, whereas AOA affected 6.5% of women and 4.2% of men. During the previous 12 months, 33% of COA cases and 60% of AOA cases were medically treated. CONCLUSION: The proportion of persons affected by asthma in the German National Cohort, as well as observed patterns regarding age and gender, corresponds to other data sources such as DEGS. However, in our analysis, the proportion of individuals with AOA was higher than described in the literature. The increase in cumulative asthma diagnoses with age is markedly steeper in younger participants, indicating a rising trend over time.

[Self-reported infections in the German National Cohort (GNC) in the context of the current research landscape]. / Selbst berichtete Infektionen in der NAKO Gesundheitsstudie ­ Einordnung in die gegenwärtige Forschungslandschaft.

BACKGROUND: Infectious diseases continue to play an important role for disease perception, health-economic considerations and public health in Germany. In recent years, infectious diseases have been linked to the development of non-communicable diseases. Analyses of the German National Cohort (GNC) may provide deeper insights into this issue and pave the way for new targeted approaches in disease prevention. OBJECTIVES: The aim was to describe the tools used to assess infectious diseases and to present initial data on infectious disease frequencies, as well as to relate the GNC assessment tools to data collection methods in other studies in Germany. METHODS: As part of the baseline examination, questions regarding infectious diseases were administered using both an interview and a self-administered touchscreen questionnaire. Data from the initial 101,787 GNC participants were analysed. RESULTS: In the interview, 0.2% (HIV/AIDS) to 8.6% (shingles) of respondents reported ever having a medical diagnosis of shingles, postherpetic neuralgia (in cases where shingles was reported), hepatitis B/C, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis or sepsis if treated in hospital. In the questionnaire, 12% (cystitis) to 81% (upper respiratory tract infections) of respondents reported having experienced at least one occurrence of upper or lower respiratory tract infections, gastrointestinal infections, cystitis or fever within the past 12 months. OUTLOOK: The cross-sectional analyses of data and tools presented here - for example on determinants of susceptibility to self-reported infections - can be anticipated from the year 2021 onward. Beyond that, more extensive research into infectious disease epidemiology will follow, particularly once analyses of GNC biological materials have been performed.

Reduction of cervical cancer incidence within a primary HPV screening pilot project (WOLPHSCREEN) in Wolfsburg, Germany.

BACKGROUND: Randomised controlled trials showed human papillomavirus (HPV)-based screening leads to a significant reduction in cervical cancer incidence compared with cytology-based screening only. METHODS: Non-hysterectomised participants ≥30 years underwent co-testing with Papanicolaou (Pap) smear and HR-HPV testing (Hybrid Capture 2; HC2). Women with normal findings had their next screening round after 5 years, and HC2+ and Pap abnormal cases were immediately referred for colposcopy, while cases with discordant findings had repeat testing after 12 months with referral to colposcopy in cases with persistent positive findings. RESULTS: Twenty-six thousand six hundred and twenty-four women were recruited between February 2006 and December 2016. Two hundred and seventy-four CIN3+ cases were diagnosed (270 HPV+, 4 HPV-), including 31 invasive cervical cancers (29 HPV+, 2 HPV-). No CIN3+ was detected in HPV- women with abnormal cytology. We observed a significant decline in the 5-year incidence of CIN3+ (from 0.96% [95% CI 0.85-1.09%] to 0.16% [95% CI 0.10-0.25%]; p < 0.0001) and cervical cancer (from 0.10% [95% CI 0.07%-0.15%] to 0.025% [95% CI 0.01-0.08%]; p = 0.01) between the first and subsequent rounds. Approximately 90% (246/274) of CIN3+ cases were diagnosed at first colposcopy. CONCLUSIONS: The decline in disease rates with 5-yearly co-testing seems mainly attributable to HPV testing since no CIN3+ occurred in HPV-/Pap+ women.

Herpes zoster incidence in Germany - an indirect validation study for self-reported disease data from pretest studies of the population-based German National Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Until now, herpes zoster (HZ)-related disease burden in Germany has been estimated based on health insurance data and clinical findings. However, the validity of self-reported HZ is unclear. This study investigated the validity of self-reported herpes zoster (HZ) and its complication postherpetic neuralgia (PHN) using data from the pretest studies of the German National Cohort (GNC) in comparison with estimates based on health insurance data. METHODS: Data of 4751 participants aged between 20 and 69 years from two pretest studies of the GNC carried out in 2011 and 2012 were used. Based on self-reports of physician-diagnosed HZ and PHN, age- and sex-specific HZ incidence rates and PHN proportions were estimated. For comparison, estimates based on statutory health insurance data from the German population were considered. RESULTS: Eleven percent (95%-CI, 10.4 to 12.3, n = 539) of the participants reported at least one HZ episode in their lifetime. Our estimated age-specific HZ incidence rates were lower than previous estimates based on statutory health insurance data. The PHN proportion in participants older than 50 years was 5.9% (1.9 to 13.9%), which was in line with estimates based on health insurance data. CONCLUSION: As age- and sex-specific patterns were comparable with that in health insurance data, self-reported diagnosis of HZ seems to be a valid instrument for overall disease trends. Possible reasons for observed differences in incidence rates are recall bias in self-reported data or overestimation in health insurance data.

Influence of demographic changes on the impact of vaccination against varicella and herpes zoster in Germany - a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies suggest that reduced exposure to varicella might lead to an increased risk for herpes zoster (HZ). Reduction of exposure to varicella is a consequence of varicella vaccination but also of demographic changes. We analyzed how the combination of vaccination programs and demographic dynamics will affect the epidemiology of varicella and HZ in Germany over the next 50 years. METHODS: We used a deterministic dynamic compartmental model to assess the impact of different varicella and HZ vaccination strategies on varicella and HZ epidemiology in three demographic scenarios, namely the projected population for Germany, the projected population additionally accounting for increased immigration as observed in 2015/2016, and a stationary population. RESULTS: Projected demographic changes alone result in an increase of annual HZ cases by 18.3% and a decrease of varicella cases by 45.7% between 1990 and 2060. Independently of the demographic scenario, varicella vaccination reduces the cumulative number of varicella cases until 2060 by approximately 70%, but also increases HZ cases by 10%. Unlike the currently licensed live attenuated HZ vaccine, the new subunit vaccine candidate might completely counteract this effect. Relative vaccine effects were consistent across all demographic scenarios. CONCLUSION: Demographic dynamics will be a major determinant of HZ epidemiology in the next 50 years. While stationary population models are appropriate for assessing vaccination impact, models incorporating realistic population structures allow a direct comparison to surveillance data and can thus provide additional input for immunization decision-making and resource planning.

Time trends of chronic HBV infection over prior decades - A global analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Information on trends in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) prevalence across countries is lacking. We studied changes in chronic HBV infection over previous decades by country, and assessed patterns of change between and within WHO-defined regions. METHODS: Based on data from a published systematic review on chronic HBV, we applied a linear model on the logit scale to assess time trends in country-specific prevalence. Estimated HBsAg prevalence in 2000 and relative changes in prevalence over time were evaluated by country and region. RESULTS: Sufficient data were available for 50 countries, mostly showing reductions in prevalence over time. Various degrees of heterogeneity were observed within regions, with a relatively homogenous pattern in the Eastern Mediterranean region with strong decreases in HBsAg prevalence. Europe showed a mixed pattern: higher and stable chronic HBsAg prevalence in Eastern, and constantly low prevalence in Western Europe. In Africa, some countries demonstrated no change in prevalence; increases were seen in Uganda (odds ratio 1.05 per year; 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.06), Nigeria (1.02; 1.02-1.02), Senegal (1.01; 1.01-1.02), and South Africa (1.02; 1.01-1.02). With some exceptions, country-patterns overlapped among countries of South East Asian and Western Pacific regions, characterized by low-medium HBsAg decreases, most prominent in China and Malaysia. CONCLUSIONS: Most countries experienced decreases in HBsAg prevalence. Dynamics varied, even within regions; decreases occurred mostly before the direct effects of childhood vaccination may have manifested. These findings together with stable and increasing HBsAg prevalence in some countries of Africa and Eastern Europe indicate the need for further tailored country-specific prevention. LAY SUMMARY: This study investigated time trends in prevalence of chronic HBV infection in 50 countries worldwide over the last decade, by estimating relative changes in prevalence. Results show decreases in chronic HBV infection in most countries; no changes or increases in prevalence are noted in some African countries. Reasons for time changes need to be investigated further; based on the results, various prevention measures have contributed to reductions, and further tailored HBV prevention is required to combat the disease on a global level.

Evaluation of vaccination herd immunity effects for anogenital warts in a low coverage setting with human papillomavirus vaccine-an interrupted time series analysis from 2005 to 2010 using health insurance data.

BACKGROUND: Shortly after the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine recommendation and hence the reimbursement of vaccination costs for the respective age groups in Germany in 2007, changes in the incidence of anogenital warts (AGWs) were observed, but it was not clear at what level the incidence would stabilize and to what extent herd immunity would be present. Given the relatively low HPV vaccination coverage in Germany, we aimed to assess potential vaccination herd immunity effects in the German setting. METHODS: A retrospective open cohort study with data from more than nine million statutory health insurance members from 2005 to 2010 was conducted. AGW cases were identified using ICD-10-codes. The incidence of AGWs was estimated by age, sex, and calendar quarter. Age and sex specific incidence rate ratios were estimated comparing the years 2009-2010 (post-vaccination period) with 2005-2007 (pre-vaccination period). RESULTS: Incidence rate ratio of AGWs for the post-vaccination period compared to the pre-vaccination period showed a u-shaped decrease among the 14- to 24-year-old females and males which corresponds well with the reported HPV vaccination uptake in 2008. A maximum reduction of up to 60% was observed for the 16- to 20-year-old females and slightly less pronounced (up to 50%) for the 16- and 18-year-old males. Age groups outside of the range 14-24 years demonstrated no decrease. The decrease of incidence occurred in both sexes early after the vaccine recommendation and stabilized at lower levels in 2009-2010. CONCLUSIONS: A relative reduction of up to 50% among males of approximately similar age groups as that of females receiving the HPV vaccination suggests herd protection resulting from assortative mixing by age. The early decrease among males can be reduced over time due to partner change.

Cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus vaccination in Germany.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in addition to the current cervical cancer screening programme in Germany using a dynamic transmission model. METHODS: Based on a mathematical model simulating the transmission dynamics and the natural history of HPV infection and associated diseases (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, cervical cancer, and genital warts), we estimated the epidemiological and economic consequences of HPV vaccination with both the quadrivalent and bivalent vaccines. In our base case analysis, we assessed the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating 12-year-old girls with a 3-dose schedule. In sensitivity analysis, we also evaluated the use of a 2-dose schedule and assessed the impact of vaccinating boys. RESULTS: From a health care payer perspective, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of a 3-dose schedule were €34,249 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) for the bivalent and €14,711 per QALY for the quadrivalent vaccine. Inclusion of indirect costs decreased ICERs by up to 40%. When adopting a health care payer perspective, ICERs of a 2-dose approach decreased to €19,450 per QALY for the bivalent and to €3645 per QALY for the quadrivalent vaccine. From a societal perspective, a 2-dose approach using the quadrivalent vaccine was a cost-saving strategy while using the bivalent vaccine resulted in an ICER of €13,248 per QALY. Irrespective of the perspective adopted, additional vaccination of boys resulted in ICERs exceeding €50,000 per QALY, except for scenarios with low coverage (20%) in girls. CONCLUSIONS: Our model results suggest that routine HPV vaccination of 12-year-old girls with three doses is likely to be cost-effective in Germany. Due to the additional impact on genital warts, the quadrivalent vaccine appeared to be more cost-effective than the bivalent vaccine. A 2-dose schedule of the quadrivalent vaccine might even lead to cost savings when adopting a societal perspective. The cost-effectiveness of additional vaccination of boys was highly dependent on the coverage in girls.

Estimations of worldwide prevalence of chronic hepatitis B virus infection: a systematic review of data published between 1965 and 2013.

BACKGROUND: The quantification of the burden of disease attributable to hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and the adaptation of prevention and control measures requires knowledge on its prevalence in the general population. For most countries such data are not routinely available. We estimated the national, regional, and global prevalence of chronic HBV infection. METHODS: For this systematic review and pooled analysis, we searched for data on prevalence of chronic HBV infection published between Jan 1, 1965, and Oct 23, 2013, in the databases Medline, Embase, CAB Abstracts (Global health), Popline, and Web of Science. We included studies reporting the hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) serological marker of chronic HBV infection in non-high-risk groups and extracted data into a customised database. For each country, we calculated HBsAg prevalence estimates and 95% CIs weighted by study size. We extrapolated prevalence estimates to population sizes in 2010 to obtain the number of individuals with chronic HBV infection. FINDINGS: Of the 17,029 records screened, 1800 report on the prevalence of HBsAg covering 161 countries were included. HBsAg seroprevalence was 3·61% (95% CI 3·61-3·61) worldwide with highest endemicity in countries of the African region (total 8·83%, 8·82-8·83) and Western Pacific region (total 5·26%, 5·26-5·26). Within WHO regions, prevalence ranged from 0·20% (0·19-0·21; Mexico) to 13·55% (9·00-19·89; Haiti) in the Americas, to 0·48% (0·12-1·90; the Seychelles) to 22·38% (20·10-24·83; South Sudan) in the African region. We estimated that in 2010, globally, about 248 million individuals were HBsAg positive. INTERPRETATION: This first global assessment of country-level population prevalence of chronic HBV infection found a wide variation between countries and highlights the need for continued prevention and control strategies and the collection of reliable epidemiologic data using standardised methodology. FUNDING: World Health Organization.

Ebola risk perception in Germany, 2014.

Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks have occurred during the past 5 decades, but none has affected European countries like the 2014 epidemic in West Africa. We used an online questionnaire to investigate risk perceptions in Germany during this epidemic peak. Our questionnaire covered risk perceptions, knowledge about transmission routes, media use, reactions to the outbreak, attitudes toward measures to prevent the spread of EVD and vaccination against EVD, and willingness to volunteer for aid missions. Of 974 participants, 29% indicated that they worried about EVD, 4% correctly stated virus transmission routes, and 75% incorrectly rated airborne transmission and transmission by asymptomatic patients as possible. Many indicated that if a patient were flown to Germany for treatment in a nearby hospital, they would adapt preventive behavior. Although most participants were not worried about EVD at the current stage of the epidemic, misperceptions regarding transmission were common and could trigger inappropriate behavior changes.

Systematic review of models assessing the economic value of routine varicella and herpes zoster vaccination in high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: A systematic review was conducted to assess the cost-effectiveness of routine varicella and herpes zoster (HZ) vaccination in high-income countries estimated by modelling studies. METHODS: A PubMed search was performed to identify relevant studies published before October 2013. Studies were included in the review if they (i) evaluated the cost-effectiveness of routine childhood or adolescent varicella vaccination and/or HZ vaccination targeting the elderly, and if they (ii) reported results for high-income countries. RESULTS: A total of 38 model-based studies were identified that fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Routine childhood or adolescent varicella vaccination was cost-effective or cost-saving from a payer perspective and always cost-saving from a societal perspective when ignoring its potential impact on HZ incidence due to reduced or absent exogenous boosting. The inclusion of the potential impact of childhood varicella vaccination on HZ led to net quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) losses or incremental cost-effectiveness ratios exceeding commonly accepted thresholds. Additional HZ vaccination could partially mitigate this effect. Studies focusing only on the evaluation of HZ vaccination reported a wide range of results depending on the selected target age-group and the vaccine price, but most found HZ vaccination to be a cost-effective or marginally cost-effective intervention. Cost-effectiveness of HZ vaccination was strongly dependent on the age at vaccination, the price of the vaccine, the assumed duration of protection and the applied cost per QALY threshold. CONCLUSIONS: While HZ vaccination is mostly considered cost-effective, cost-effectiveness of varicella vaccination primarily depends on the in- or exclusion of exogenous boosting in the model. As a consequence, clarification on the role of exogenous boosting is crucial for decision-making regarding varicella vaccination.

Regional patient transfer patterns matter for the spread of hospital-acquired pathogens.

Pathogens typically responsible for hospital-acquired infections (HAIs) constitute a major threat to healthcare systems worldwide. They spread via hospital (or hospital-community) networks by readmissions or patient transfers. Therefore, knowledge of these networks is essential to develop and test strategies to mitigate and control the HAI spread. Until now, no methods for comparing healthcare networks across different systems were proposed. Based on healthcare insurance data from four German federal states (Bavaria, Lower Saxony, Saxony and Thuringia), we constructed hospital networks and compared them in a systematic approach regarding population, hospital characteristics, and patient transfer patterns. Direct patient transfers between hospitals had only a limited impact on HAI spread. Whereas, with low colonization clearance rates, readmissions to the same hospitals posed the biggest transmission risk of all inter-hospital transfers. We then generated hospital-community networks, in which patients either stay in communities or in hospitals. We found that network characteristics affect the final prevalence and the time to reach it. However, depending on the characteristics of the pathogen (colonization clearance rate and transmission rate or even the relationship between transmission rate in hospitals and in the community), the studied networks performed differently. The differences were not large, but justify further studies.

University Students' Financial Situation During COVID-19 and Anxiety and Depressive Symptoms: Results of the COVID-19 German Student Well-Being Study (C19 GSWS).

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a major impact on students' financial situation as well as on their mental health. Aim: To examine the reported change in the financial situation of German university students before and across two time points of the COVID-19 pandemic and to evaluate its associations with anxiety and depressive symptoms. Methods: We used data from the cross-sectional COVID-19 German Student Well-being Study conducted at five German universities (N = 7203). Linear regression models were used to analyze associations between a reported change in financial situation and anxiety and depressive symptoms. Results: Twenty-eight percent of the participants reported to have a worsened financial situation at the time of the survey compared to the time prior to the pandemic. A worsened financial situation at the time of the survey as compared to prior to the pandemic was associated with higher levels of anxiety and depressive symptoms reported in all three depression and anxiety scales [a 1.46 point increase on the CES-D 8 scale (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.19; 1.73), a 0.37-point increase in PHQ-2 (95% CI: 0.28; 0.46), and a 0.45-point increase in GAD-2 (95% CI: 0.35; 0.55)]. An improved financial situation, on the other hand, was associated with lower levels of anxiety and depressive symptoms. As for the second change, comparing the current financial situation with the situation during the first wave of the pandemic, the associations with anxiety and depressive symptoms were broadly similar. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that students are a vulnerable population in need of mental and financial support during times of crisis. Future research is needed to obtain insights into potential long-term effects of the pandemic on students' mental health.

Changes in incidence of anogenital warts diagnoses after the introduction of human papillomavirus vaccination in Germany-an ecologic study.

In a large health insurance database in Germany, incidence of anogenital warts among 15- to 19-year-old females decreased from 316/100,000 person-years in 2007 to 242 in 2008 (23% reduction, P = 0.0001). The decrease started between the first and second quarter of 2007 (human papillomavirus vaccination was introduced in March 2007).

The effect of re-directed patient flow in combination with targeted infection control measures on the spread of multi-drug-resistant Enterobacteriaceae in the German health-care system: a mathematical modelling approach.

OBJECTIVE: The introduction of multi-drug-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (MDR-E) by colonized patients transferred from high-prevalence countries has led to several large outbreaks of MDR-E in low-prevalence countries, with the risk of propagated spread to the community. The goal of this study was to derive a strategy to counteract the spread of MDR-E at the regional health-care network level. METHODS: We used a hybrid ordinary differential equation and network model built based on German health insurance data to evaluate whether the re-direction of patient flow in combination with targeted infection control measures can counteract the spread of MDR-E in the German health-care system. We applied pragmatic re-direction strategies focusing on a reduced choice of hospitals for subsequent stays after initial hospitalization but not manipulating direct transfers because these are most likely determined by medical needs. RESULTS: The re-direction strategies alone did not reduce the system-wide spread of MDR-E (system-wide prevalence of MDR-E is 18.7% vs. 25.7%/29.9%). In contrast, targeted hospital-based infection control measures restricted to institutions with the highest institutional basic reproduction numbers in the network were identified as an effective tool for reducing system-wide prevalence (system-wide prevalence of MDR-E is 18.7% vs. 9.3%). If these measures were applied to the top one-third of hospitals, the system-wide prevalence could be reduced by approximately 80% (system-wide prevalence of 18.7% vs. 3.5% for one-third of patients subjected to interventions). A combination of this hospital-based intervention and patient re-direction strategies could not improve the effectiveness of the hospital-based approach (system-wide prevalence of MDR-E is 9.3% vs. 14.2%/14.3%). CONCLUSIONS: The pragmatic patient re-direction strategies were not capable of restricting the spread of MDR-E in a simulation of the German health-care system; in contrast, hospital-based interventions focusing on institutions identified based on network transmission patterns seem to be a promising approach for sustainable reduction of the spread of MDR-E through the German population.