Evolution of the United States Energy System and Related Emissions under Varying Social and Technological Development Paradigms: Plausible Scenarios for Use in Robust Decision Making.

The energy system is the primary source of air pollution. Thus, evolution of the energy system into the future will affect society's ability to maintain air quality. Anticipating this evolution is difficult because of inherent uncertainty in predicting future energy demand, fuel use, and technology adoption. We apply scenario planning to address this uncertainty, developing four very different visions of the future. Stakeholder engagement suggested that technological progress and social attitudes toward the environment are critical and uncertain factors for determining future emissions. Combining transformative and static assumptions about these factors yields a matrix of four scenarios that encompass a wide range of outcomes. We implement these scenarios in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) model. Results suggest that both shifting attitudes and technology transformation may lead to emission reductions relative to the present, even without additional policies. Emission caps, such as the Cross-State Air-Pollution Rule, are most effective at protecting against future emission increases. An important outcome of this work is the scenario-implementation approach, which uses technology-specific discount rates to encourage scenario-specific technology and fuel choices. End-use energy demands are modified to approximate societal changes. This implementation allows the model to respond to perturbations in manners consistent with each scenario.

Illustrating anticipatory life cycle assessment for emerging photovoltaic technologies.

Current research policy and strategy documents recommend applying life cycle assessment (LCA) early in research and development (R&D) to guide emerging technologies toward decreased environmental burden. However, existing LCA practices are ill-suited to support these recommendations. Barriers related to data availability, rapid technology change, and isolation of environmental from technical research inhibit application of LCA to developing technologies. Overcoming these challenges requires methodological advances that help identify environmental opportunities prior to large R&D investments. Such an anticipatory approach to LCA requires synthesis of social, environmental, and technical knowledge beyond the capabilities of current practices. This paper introduces a novel framework for anticipatory LCA that incorporates technology forecasting, risk research, social engagement, and comparative impact assessment, then applies this framework to photovoltaic (PV) technologies. These examples illustrate the potential for anticipatory LCA to prioritize research questions and help guide environmentally responsible innovation of emerging technologies.

Do single-use medical devices containing biopolymers reduce the environmental impacts of surgical procedures compared with their plastic equivalents?

Background While petroleum-based plastics are extensively used in health care, recent developments in biopolymer manufacturing have created new opportunities for increased integration of biopolymers into medical products, devices and services. This study compared the environmental impacts of single-use disposable devices with increased biopolymer content versus typically manufactured devices in hysterectomy. Methods A comparative life cycle assessment of single-use disposable medical products containing plastic(s) versus the same single-use medical devices with biopolymers substituted for plastic(s) at Magee-Women's Hospital (Magee) in Pittsburgh, PA and the products used in four types of hysterectomies that contained plastics potentially suitable for biopolymer substitution. Magee is a 360-bed teaching hospital, which performs approximately 1400 hysterectomies annually. Results There are life cycle environmental impact tradeoffs when substituting biopolymers for petroplastics in procedures such as hysterectomies. The substitution of biopolymers for petroleum-based plastics increased smog-related impacts by approximately 900% for laparoscopic and robotic hysterectomies, and increased ozone depletion-related impacts by approximately 125% for laparoscopic and robotic hysterectomies. Conversely, biopolymers reduced life cycle human health impacts, acidification and cumulative energy demand for the four hysterectomy procedures. The integration of biopolymers into medical products is correlated with reductions in carcinogenic impacts, non-carcinogenic impacts and respiratory effects. However, the significant agricultural inputs associated with manufacturing biopolymers exacerbate environmental impacts of products and devices made using biopolymers. Conclusions The integration of biopolymers into medical products is correlated with reductions in carcinogenic impacts, non-carcinogenic impacts and respiratory effects; however, the significant agricultural inputs associated with manufacturing biopolymers exacerbate environmental impacts.

Toward zero waste: composting and recycling for sustainable venue based events.

This study evaluated seven different waste management strategies for venue-based events and characterized the impacts of event waste management via waste audits and the Waste Reduction Model (WARM). The seven waste management scenarios included traditional waste handling methods (e.g. recycle and landfill) and management of the waste stream via composting, including purchasing where only compostable food service items were used during the events. Waste audits were conducted at four Arizona State University (ASU) baseball games, including a three game series. The findings demonstrate a tradeoff among CO2 equivalent emissions, energy use, and landfill diversion rates. Of the seven waste management scenarios assessed, the recycling scenarios provide the greatest reductions in CO2 eq. emissions and energy use because of the retention of high value materials but are compounded by the difficulty in managing a two or three bin collection system. The compost only scenario achieves complete landfill diversion but does not perform as well with respect to CO2 eq. emissions or energy. The three game series was used to test the impact of staffed bins on contamination rates; the first game served as a baseline, the second game employed staffed bins, and the third game had non staffed bins to determine the effect of staffing on contamination rates. Contamination rates in both the recycling and compost bins were tracked throughout the series. Contamination rates were reduced from 34% in the first game to 11% on the second night (with the staffed bins) and 23% contamination rates at the third game.