Accelerating Progress Towards the 2030 Neglected Tropical Diseases Targets: How Can Quantitative Modeling Support Programmatic Decisions?

Over the past decade, considerable progress has been made in the control, elimination, and eradication of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Despite these advances, most NTD programs have recently experienced important setbacks; for example, NTD interventions were some of the most frequently and severely impacted by service disruptions due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Mathematical modeling can help inform selection of interventions to meet the targets set out in the NTD road map 2021-2030, and such studies should prioritize questions that are relevant for decision-makers, especially those designing, implementing, and evaluating national and subnational programs. In September 2022, the World Health Organization hosted a stakeholder meeting to identify such priority modeling questions across a range of NTDs and to consider how modeling could inform local decision making. Here, we summarize the outputs of the meeting, highlight common themes in the questions being asked, and discuss how quantitative modeling can support programmatic decisions that may accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets.

The interplay of metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease and viral hepatitis on liver disease severity: A large community-based study in a viral endemic area.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The prevalence of metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) and its interplay with hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) in terms of liver disease severity is elusive. METHODS: A mass surveillance program was conducted in a viral hepatitis endemic area. The objective was to identify MAFLD/non-MAFLD subjects with advanced liver disease. RESULTS: Two thousand two hundred and forty-two (41.7%) of the 5378 subjects were identified as having MAFLD, and 375 (7.0%) had advanced liver disease. The proportions of anti-HCV and HBsAg seropositivity were 19.3% and 9.7%, respectively. The proportions of advanced fibrosis in subjects with non-viral hepatitis (NBNC), HBV and HCV infection were 2.8%, 5.7% and 23.4%, respectively. Subjects with MAFLD had a significantly higher proportion of advanced fibrosis (8.7% vs 5.7%, P < 0.001). Factors associated with advanced fibrosis included age (odds ratio [OR]/95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.8/3.7-6.0, P < 0.001), male sex (OR/CI: 1.3/1.0-1.7, P = 0.019), anti-HCV seropositivity (OR/CI: 5.9/4.6-7.5, P = 0.019), MAFLD-lean metabolic dysregulation (MS) (OR/CI: 2.6/1.3-5.2, P = 0.005; compared with the non-MAFLD group) and MAFLD-diabetes (OR/CI: 1.5/1.1-2.1, P = 0.008; compared with the non-MAFLD group). MAFLD did not aggravate liver disease severity in patients with viral hepatitis. However, among NBNC subjects, factors associated with advanced liver disease included MAFLD-lean MS group (OR/CI: 9.1/2.4-34.6, P = 0.001; compared with non-MAFLD group) and MAFLD-DM group (OR/CI: 2.0/1.2-3.2, P = 0.004; compared with non-MAFLD group). CONCLUSIONS: MAFLD patients with diabetes and metabolic dysregulation had a higher risk of advanced liver disease. The effect was more significant in non-viral hepatitis subjects in a community level.

Economic evaluation of disease elimination: An extension to the net-benefit framework and application to human African trypanosomiasis.

The global health community has earmarked a number of diseases for elimination or eradication, and these goals have often been praised on the premise of long-run cost savings. However, decision makers must contend with a multitude of demands on health budgets in the short or medium term, and costs per case often rise as the burden of a disease falls, rendering such efforts beyond the cost-effective use of scarce resources. In addition, these decisions must be made in the presence of substantial uncertainty regarding the feasibility and costs of elimination or eradication efforts. Therefore, analytical frameworks are necessary to consider the additional effort for reaching global goals, like elimination or eradication, that are beyond the cost-effective use of country resources. We propose a modification to the net-benefit framework to consider the implications of switching from an optimal strategy, in terms of cost-per-burden averted, to a strategy with a higher likelihood of meeting the global target of elimination or eradication. We illustrate the properties of our framework by considering the economic case of efforts to eliminate the transmission of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), a vector-borne, parasitic disease in West and Central Africa, by 2030.

Impact of comorbidities on the serological response to COVID-19 vaccination in a Taiwanese cohort.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Vaccination against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is one of the best policies to control COVID-19 pandemic. The serological response to COVID-19 vaccination in Taiwanese patients with different comorbidities is elusive. METHODS: Uninfected subjects who received 3 doses of mRNA vaccines (BNT162b2 [Pfizer-BioNTech, BNT] and mRNA-1273 [Moderna]), viral vector-based vaccines (ChAdOx1-S (AZD1222, AZ) or protein subunit vaccines (Medigen COVID-19 vaccine) were prospectively enrolled. The SARS-CoV-2-IgG spike antibody level was determined within three months after the 3rd dose of vaccination. The Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) was applied to determine the association between vaccine titers and underlying comorbidities. RESULTS: A total of 824 subjects were enrolled in the current study. The proportions of CCI scores of 0-1, 2-3 and > 4 were 52.8% (n = 435), 31.3% (n = 258) and 15.9% (n = 131), respectively. The most commonly used vaccination combination was AZ-AZ-Moderna (39.2%), followed by Moderna-Moderna-Moderna (27.8%). The mean vaccination titer was 3.11 log BAU/mL after a median of 48 days after the 3rd dose. Factors associated with potentially effective neutralization capacity (IgG level ≥ 4160 AU/mL) included age ≥ 60 years (odds ratio [OR]/95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.50/0.34-0.72, P < 0.001), female sex (OR/CI: 1.85/1.30-2.63, P = 0.001), Moderna-Moderna-based vaccination (compared to AZ-AZ-based vaccination, OR/CI: 6.49/3.90-10.83, P < 0.001), BNT-BNT-based vaccination (compared to AZ-AZ-based vaccination, OR/CI: 7.91/1.82-34.3, P = 0.006) and a CCI score ≥ 4 (OR/CI: 0.53/0.34-0.82, P = 0.004). There was a decreasing trend in antibody titers with increasing CCI scores (trend P < 0.001). Linear regression analysis revealed that higher CCI scores (ß: - 0.083; 95% CI: - 0.094-0.011, P = 0.014) independently correlated with low IgG spike antibody levels. CONCLUSIONS: Subjects with more comorbidities had a poor serological response to 3 doses of COVID-19 vaccination.

Quantifying epidemiological drivers of gambiense human African Trypanosomiasis across the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) is a virulent disease declining in burden but still endemic in West and Central Africa. Although it is targeted for elimination of transmission by 2030, there remain numerous questions about the drivers of infection and how these vary geographically. In this study we focus on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which accounted for 84% of the global case burden in 2016, to explore changes in transmission across the country and elucidate factors which may have contributed to the persistence of disease or success of interventions in different regions. We present a Bayesian fitting methodology, applied to 168 endemic health zones (∼100,000 population size), which allows for calibration of a mechanistic gHAT model to case data (from the World Health Organization HAT Atlas) in an adaptive and automated framework. It was found that the model needed to capture improvements in passive detection to match observed trends in the data within former Bandundu and Bas Congo provinces indicating these regions have substantially reduced time to detection. Health zones in these provinces generally had longer burn-in periods during fitting due to additional model parameters. Posterior probability distributions were found for a range of fitted parameters in each health zone; these included the basic reproduction number estimates for pre-1998 (R0) which was inferred to be between 1 and 1.14, in line with previous gHAT estimates, with higher median values typically in health zones with more case reporting in the 2000s. Previously, it was not clear whether a fall in active case finding in the period contributed to the declining case numbers. The modelling here accounts for variable screening and suggests that underlying transmission has also reduced greatly-on average 96% in former Equateur, 93% in former Bas Congo and 89% in former Bandundu-Equateur and Bandundu having had the highest case burdens in 2000. This analysis also sets out a framework to enable future predictions for the country.

Body weight changes in treated hepatitis B patients switching to tenofovir alafenamide☆.

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: Switching to a tenofovir alafenamide (TAF)-containing regimen has been reported to be associated with body weight gain in human immunodeficiency virus-infected subjects. We aimed to investigate the body weight change and virological, hepatic, and renal outcomes of TAF switching among chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. METHODS: This retrospective study included 121 CHB patients who were switched to TAF after >12 months of treatment with another nucleot(s)ide analog (NUC). All patients were monitored for 12 months. RESULTS: The cohort was mostly Asian (96.7%) with a mean age of 55 years, 72% male, 14% cirrhosis, 21% HBeAg positive, and 75% with prior use of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate. At 12 months after TAF switching, their body weight significantly increased from 66.4 ± 11.8 to 67.8 ± 12.3 kg (p < 0.001), and 21.1% of the subjects had a ≥5% weight gain. Patients without diabetes or hypertension were more likely to have a body weight gain. Meanwhile, the complete viral suppression rate increased significantly from 89.3% to 96.2% (p = 0.016). The rate of alanine aminotransferase normalization also increased significantly from 71.1% to 87.6% (p < 0.001) by local criteria and from 58.7% to 70.2% (p = 0.029) by AASLD criteria. The mean eGFR (mL/min/1.73 m2) did not change (88.2 ± 18.8 vs. 87.2 ± 17.5, p = 0.28). However, for the subgroup with GFR <90 at TAF switching, there was a significant improvement in eGFR (72.9 ± 12.0 vs. 75.7 ± 14.2, p = 0.027). CONCLUSION: In real-world NUC-experienced CHB patients, unexpected body weight gain was observed after TAF switching. The mechanism needs to be investigated in the future.

Establishment of an outreach, grouping healthcare system to achieve microelimination of HCV for uremic patients in haemodialysis centres (ERASE-C).

OBJECTIVE: HCV prevails in uremic haemodialysis patients. The current study aimed to achieve HCV microelimination in haemodialysis centres through a comprehensive outreach programme. DESIGN: The ERASE-C Campaign is an outreach programme for the screening, diagnosis and group treatment of HCV encompassing 2323 uremic patients and 353 medical staff members from 18 haemodialysis centres. HCV-viremic subjects were linked to care for directly acting antiviral therapy or received on-site sofosbuvir/velpatasvir therapy. The objectives were HCV microelimination (>80% reduction of the HCV-viremic rate 24 weeks after the end of the campaign in centres with ≥90% of the HCV-viremic patients treated) and 'No-C HD' (no HCV-viremic subjects at the end of follow-up). RESULTS: At the preinterventional screening, 178 (7.7%) uremic patients and 2 (0.6%) staff members were HCV-viremic. Among them, 146 (83.9%) uremic patients received anti-HCV therapy (41 link-to-care; 105 on-site sofosbuvir/velpatasvir). The rates of sustained virological response (SVR12, undetectable HCV RNA 12 weeks after the end of treatment) in the full analysis set and per-protocol population were 89.5% (94/105) and 100% (86/86), respectively, in the on-site treatment group, which were comparable with the rates of 92.7% (38/41) and 100% (38/38), respectively, in the link-to-care group. Eventually, the HCV-viremic rate decreased to 0.9% (18/1,953), yielding an 88.3% reduction from baseline. HCV microelimination and 'No-C HD' were achieved in 92.3% (12/13) and 38.9% (7/18) of the haemodialysis centres, respectively. CONCLUSION: Outreach strategies with mass screenings and on-site group treatment greatly facilitated HCV microelimination in the haemodialysis population. CLINICALTRIALSGOV IDENTIFIER: NCT03803410 and NCT03891550.

Predicted Impact of COVID-19 on Neglected Tropical Disease Programs and the Opportunity for Innovation.

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, many key neglected tropical disease (NTD) activities have been postponed. This hindrance comes at a time when the NTDs are progressing towards their ambitious goals for 2030. Mathematical modelling on several NTDs, namely gambiense sleeping sickness, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH), trachoma, and visceral leishmaniasis, shows that the impact of this disruption will vary across the diseases. Programs face a risk of resurgence, which will be fastest in high-transmission areas. Furthermore, of the mass drug administration diseases, schistosomiasis, STH, and trachoma are likely to encounter faster resurgence. The case-finding diseases (gambiense sleeping sickness and visceral leishmaniasis) are likely to have fewer cases being detected but may face an increasing underlying rate of new infections. However, once programs are able to resume, there are ways to mitigate the impact and accelerate progress towards the 2030 goals.

Evolutionary seroepidemiology of viral hepatitis and the gap in hepatitis C care cascades among uraemic patients receiving haemodialysis in Taiwan-the Formosa-Like Group.

Uraemic patients undergoing haemodialysis are at high risk of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. We aimed to evaluate the evolutionary seroprevalence of viral hepatitis and the gap in HCV care cascades in this special population by a large-scale surveillance study in Taiwan. Uraemic patients on maintenance haemodialysis from 22 sites (FORMOSA-LIKE group) in 2012 (n = 1,680) and 2019 (n = 2,326) were recruited for this study. The distributions and sequential changes of viral hepatitis markers were analysed. The prevalence of anti-HCV antibody and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seropositivity was 13.6% (316/2326) and 11.5% (267/2326), respectively, in 2019 compared with 17.3% (290/1680, P = .002) and 13.6% (229/1680, P = .046), respectively, in 2012. The HCV-viremic rate among anti-HCV-seropositive patients was significantly lower in 2019 than in 2012 (56.3% [178/316] vs. 73.8% [214/290], P < .001). The HCV treatment rate increased from 2.3% (5/217) in 2012 to 21.7% (49/226) in 2019 (P < .001). In the sequential analysis of the 490 patients who participated in both screens, 17 of the 55 HCV-viremic patients became HCV RNA seronegative, including 13 by antivirals and four spontaneously. By contrast, one anti-HCV-seropositive but nonviremic patient became viremic, and six anti-HCV-seronegative patients became anti-HCV-seropositive in 2019. The annual incidence of new HCV was 0.2%/year. Seven HBsAg-seropositive patients experienced HBsAg loss (1.25%/year). Two patients had new anti-HBc seropositivity (new HBV exposure: 0.57%/year). The seroprevalence of viral hepatitis decreased in an 8-year follow-up but remained prevalent, and the treatment of HCV infection was underutilized in uraemic patients. Additional efforts are needed to enhance the HCV treatment uptake of uraemic patients. Clinical Trial IDs: NCT03803410, NCT01766895.

Seroreversion of hepatitis B surface antigen among subjects with resolved hepatitis B virus infection: A community-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) surface antigen (HBsAg) seroreversion usually occurs during immunosuppressive therapy. The risk and factors of HBsAg seroreversion from resolved HBV infection in the general population remained unclear. METHODS: This retrospective study enrolled subjects with resolved HBV infection and who had received at least two times of screening in a longitudinal community screening program. HBsAg, hepatitis B surface antibody (anti-HBs), and hepatitis C virus antibody (anti-HCV) were tested every time in all subjects. The primary endpoint was HBsAg seroreversion. RESULTS: Of the 7630 subjects enrolled, 5158 (67.6%) subjects had positive anti-HBs at baseline. HBsAg seroreversion occurred in 84 subjects during 42 815-person-year follow-up with an annual incidence of 0.2% and a 10-year cumulative risk of 1.9%. Anti-HBV treatment-experienced subjects had a significantly higher risk of HBsAg seroreversion than anti-HBV treatment-naive subjects (83/310 [26.8%] vs 1/7320 [0.01%], P < 0.001). Lower rates of positive anti-HBs and anti-HCV were observed in anti-HBV treatment-experienced subjects who developed HBsAg seroreversion. Both positive anti-HBs (hazard ratio/95% confidence interval: 0.56/0.348-0.903, P = 0.017) and positive anti-HCV (hazard ratio/95% confidence interval: 0.08/0.030-0.234, P < 0.001) were independent factors of HBsAg seroreversion in anti-HBV treatment-experienced subjects. Less than 5% of the HBsAg seroreverters had clinical hepatitis flare at HBsAg seroreversion. The HBsAg titer was low, and only transient reappeared in most of the HBsAg seroreverters. CONCLUSIONS: Subjects with resolved HBV infection were at a minimal risk of HBsAg seroreversion, unless with prior anti-HBV treatment experience. Fortunately, even with a reappearance of HBsAg, it was transient and clinically non-relevant.

Comorbidities in patients with chronic hepatitis C and hepatitis B on hemodialysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Hemodialysis patients are at increased risk of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Both HBV and HCV infections lead to risks of end-stage liver diseases and extrahepatic manifestations. This study aimed to investigate hepatic and extrahepatic comorbidities in hemodialysis patients with HBV or HCV infections compared with those without viral hepatitis. METHODS: A total of 1910 hemodialysis patients, including 159 HCV viremic patients (HCV group), 217 seropositive for HBV surface antigen (HBsAg, HBV group) and 1534 seronegative for both anti-HCV and HBsAg (non-B and non-C [NBNC] group), from 23 hemodialysis centers were enrolled. Comorbidities were classified into 10 categories by the International Classification of Diseases-10th Revision. RESULTS: Among the 1910 patients, the mean age was 64.6 years, and 52.7% were male patients. A total of 1834 (96%) patients had at least one comorbidity, and the mean number of comorbidities was 2.9 ± 1.5 per person. The three most common comorbidities were hypertension, diabetes, and ischemic heart diseases. The mean number of comorbidities per person was significantly higher in the HCV group (3.3 ± 1.7) than in the HBV (2.7 ± 1.5, P < 0.001) and NBNC groups (2.9 ± 1.5, P = 0.004), mainly due to the higher prevalence of ischemic heart disease, respiratory disorders, and mental/behavioral disorders. The HBV and NBNC groups exhibited comparable burdens of comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS: Hemodialysis patients had a high prevalence of multiple comorbidities. Hemodialysis patients with HCV exhibited a higher burden of comorbidities, especially ischemic heart diseases, respiratory disorders, and mental/behavioral disorders, than HBV and NBNC patients did.

Role of hepatitis D virus in persistent alanine aminotransferase abnormality among chronic hepatitis B patients treated with nucleotide/nucleoside analogues.

BACKGROUND: The biochemical response is a crucial indicator of prognosis in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients treated with nucleotide/nucleoside analogues (NAs). The impact of hepatitis D virus (HDV) infection on alanine aminotransferase normalization is elusive. METHODS: The longitudinal study recruited 1185 CHB patients who received NAs. These patients were tested for anti-HDV antibody and HDV RNA at the initiation of anti-hepatitis B virus (HBV) therapy and annually for patients who were HDV-seropositive. ALT levels were examined at the first and second year of anti-HBV therapy. ALT abnormality was defined as ALT levels above 40 IU/mL in both male and female, and the risk factors associated with ALT abnormality were analysed. RESULTS: Rates of seropositivity for anti-HDV and HDV RNA were 2.0% and 0.8% among 1185 NA-treated CHB patients, respectively. The strongest factor associated with ALT abnormality (>40 IU/mL) after first year treatment with NAs was HDV RNA seropositivity at year 1 (odds ratio [OR]/95% confidence interval [CI]: 31.44/3.49-283.56, P = 0.002), followed by liver cirrhosis (2.18/1.51-3.15, P < 0.001), detectable HBV DNA at year 1 (OR/CI: 1.99/1.36-2.92, P < 0.001), diabetes (OR/CI: 1.75/1.10-2.78, P = 0.02), body mass index (BMI) (OR/CI: 1.13/1.09-1.18, P < 0.001) and age (OR/CI: 0.97/0.96-0.98, P < 0.001). Among patients who were seronegative for HBV DNA at year 1, the strongest factor associated with ALT abnormality was HDV RNA seropositivity at year 1 (OR/CI: 30.00/3.28-274.05, P = 0.003), followed by liver cirrhosis (OR/CI: 1.83/1.21-2.75, P = 0.004), BMI (OR/CI: 1.16/1.11-1.21, P < 0.001) and age (OR/CI: 0.97/0.96-0.99, P < 0.001). Similarly, the impact of HDV RNA seropositivity on ALT abnormality was noted in patients without detectable HBV DNA but not in those with hepatitis B viremia at treatment year 2 (OR/CI: 10.16/1.33-77.74, P = 0.03). CONCLUSION: HDV infection played an important role in ALT abnormality in CHB patients receiving 1-year and 2-year NAs. The impact was particularly noted in patients who had successfully suppressed HBV DNA.

Hepatitis B-related outcomes following direct-acting antiviral therapy in Taiwanese patients with chronic HBV/HCV co-infection.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The outcome of HBV infection, including the dynamics of HBsAg and HBV virological reactivation, among patients coinfected with HCV receiving direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) remains unclear. Thus, we aimed to analyze HBV-related outcomes in these patients. METHODS: Serial HBsAg and HBV DNA levels were measured in 79 HBV/HCV-coinfected patients receiving DAAs (13 receiving anti-HBV nucleot(s)ide analog [NUC] therapy simultaneously). The endpoints included HBsAg dynamics and seroclearance, HBV reactivation (HBV DNA >1 log increase or >100 IU/ml if undetectable at baseline) and HBV-related clinical reactivation. RESULTS: HBsAg levels declined from a median of 73.3 IU/ml at baseline to 16.2 IU/ml at the end-of-DAA treatment and increased to 94.1 IU/ml at 12 months post-treatment. During a mean 11.1-months of follow-up, 8 (10.1%) patients experienced HBsAg seroclearance and 30 (38.0%) HBV reactivation (12-month cumulative incidence, 10.3% and 40.4%, respectively). Patients with pre-treatment HBsAg ≤10 IU/ml had a significantly higher rate of HBsAg seroclearance (hazard ratio [HR] 8.52; 95% CI 1.048-69.312) and lower risk of HBV reactivation than those with pre-treatment HBsAg >10 IU/ml (HR 2.88; 95% CI 1.057-7.844) in multivariate analyses. Six patients (4 cirrhotics) not receiving NUC therapy experienced HBV-related clinical reactivation; 3 of the 4 cirrhotics developed liver failure and 2 died despite immediate NUC therapy. Compared to untreated HBV-monoinfected patients, HBV/HCV-coinfected patients without NUC prophylaxis had a similar rate of HBsAg seroclearance, but a significantly higher risk of HBV reactivation following DAA therapy (HR 6.59; 95% CI 2.488-17.432). CONCLUSIONS: DAA-treated HBV/HCV-coinfected patients had significantly higher rates of HBV seroclearance, particularly among those with low pre-treatment HBsAg titer, but were at higher risk of HBV reactivation, particularly among those with higher pre-treatment HBsAg titer. Prophylactic anti-HBV therapy is essential for cirrhotic patients, irrespective of baseline HBV DNA levels. LAY SUMMARY: We studied outcomes relating to hepatitis B virus (HBV) in patients coinfected with both hepatitis B and C. Patients receiving direct-acting antiviral treatment for hepatitis C were more likely to experience seroclearance (or functional cure of HBV), but were also more likely to experience HBV reactivation, which can lead to hepatitis, liver failure and death. In coinfected cirrhotic patients being treated for HCV, prophylactic treatment for HBV is mandatory.

Improvement of hyperuricemia in chronic hepatitis C patients receiving directly acting antiviral agents.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Hepatitis C virus eradication via the use of antivirals ameliorates metabolic profiles. The changes in serum uric acid (SUA) levels in chronic hepatitis C patients who receive antivirals are not well understood. We aimed to address this issue by comparing the SUA changes before and after the achievement of a sustained virological response (which is defined as hepatitis C virus RNA seronegativity at 12 weeks after the end of treatment). METHODS: Two hundred and thirteen sustained virological response patients who were treated by directly acting antivirals were consecutively enrolled. Pretreatment and post-treatment SUA levels were compared. Hyperuricemia was defined as a uric acid level > 7.0 mg/dL in men and > 6.0 mg/dL in women. RESULTS: The SUA levels significantly decreased after treatment, as compared to the pretreatment levels (5.6 ± 1.5 vs 6.0 ± 1.7 mg/dL, respectively; P < 0.001). The proportion of hyperuricemia incidences significantly decreased after treatment (25.8% vs 35.7%, respectively; P = 0.001). The improvement was only observed in patients with a fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) < 6.5 (25.7% vs 37.1%, P = 0.001) but not in those patients with a FIB-4 â‰§ 6.5 (26.3% vs 28.9%, P = 1.00). A multivariate analysis revealed that the factor that was associated with significantly decreased SUA levels was FIB-4 < 6.5 (odds ratio [OR]/95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.22/1.04-9.95, P = 0.04) and estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 (OR/CI: 4.34/1.94-9.73, P < 0.001). There existed a trend of a higher proportion of patients with significant SUA improvement along with the decrement of FIB-4 (29.7%, 25%, and 10.5% in patients with FIB-4 < 3.25, 3.25-6.5, and > 6.5, respectively; trend P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: SUA levels were significantly decreased in chronic hepatitis C patients after viral eradication. The improvement was particularly enhanced in patients with mild liver disease.

Ribavirin facilitates early viral kinetics in chronic hepatitis C patients receiving daclatasvir/asunaprevir.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Ribavirin (RBV) remains crucial in difficult-to-cure chronic hepatitis C patients receiving directly acting antivirals (DAAs). The current study aimed to address whether RBV enhanced early viral kinetics in patients with DAAs. METHODS: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype-1b patients were allocated to daclatasvir/asunaprevir +weight-based RBV (1000-1200 mg/day) for 12-24 weeks. HCV RNA levels were compared at day 1, week 1, week 2, and week 4 of treatment. RESULTS: The sustained virological response rate was 100% (67/67) and 96.7% (59/61) in the RBV and non-RBV group, respectively. The HCV RNA levels at treatment week 2 (W2) were significantly lower in the RBV group than in the non-RBV group (0.42 ± 0.81 log IU/mL vs 0.79 ± 1.03 log IU/mL, P = 0.04). Among the intermediate responders who remained to have detectable RNA after W1 of treatment, patients with RBV had a significantly higher rate of undetectable HCV RNA (71.4% vs 36.0%, P = 0.003) and lower HCV RNA level at W2 (0.55 ± 0.89 log IU/mL vs 1.32 ± 1.04 log IU/mL, P = 0.001). A more significant magnitude of HCV RNA reduction was also noted from baseline to day 1 (3.15 ± 0.38 log IU/mL vs 2.80 ± 0.70 log IU/mL, P = 0.009) and W1 to W2 (1.40 ± 0.65 log IU/mL vs 0.88 ± 0.78 log IU/mL, P = 0.007) in the RBV group compared to the non-RBV group among the intermediate responders. Logistic regression analysis revealed that adding RBV independently predicted undetectable HCV RNA at W2 (odds ratio/confidence interval: 4.74/1.54-14.57, P = 0.007) in the intermediate responders. CONCLUSIONS: Adding RBV to DAAs improved early viral kinetic, in particular, for intermediate responders.

Serial serologic changes of hepatitis D virus in chronic hepatitis B patients receiving nucleos(t)ides analogues therapy.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The serial serologic changes of hepatitis D virus (HDV) infection among chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infected patients who received oral nucleotide/nucleoside analogues are elusive. METHODS: Serum anti-HDV and HDV RNA among chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients were tested at the time of initiating anti-HBV therapy and subsequently during the follow-up period. RESULTS: The seropositive rate of anti-HDV and HDV RNA among 2850 CHB patients, was 2.7% and 0.9%, respectively. Factors associated with anti-HDV seropositivity were platelet counts (odds ratio [OR]/95% confidence intervals [CI]: 0.995/0.992-0.999; P = 0.006), HBV DNA levels (OR/CI: 0.81/0.70-0.94; P = 0.005), and hepatitis B e-antigen (HBeAg) seropositivity (OR/CI: 0.22/0.05-0.95; P = 0.04). The only factor associated with HDV RNA positivity among anti-HDV seropositive patients was age (OR/CI: 0.95/0.90-1.00; P = 0.03). The spontaneous clearance rate of serum anti-HDV antibody was 3.0 per 100 person-years with a median follow-up period of 3.5 years (range 2-12 years), whereas the seroclearance rate of HDV RNA was 4.3 per 100 person-years among anti-HDV seropositive patients after a median follow-up period of 6.0 years (range 2-11 years). A baseline anti-HDV titer < 0.5 cut-off index was the only factor predictive of anti-HDV seroclearance (hazard ratio [HR]/CI: 30.11/3.73-242.85; P = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: HDV infection was not common among patients treated for HBV in Taiwan. Seroclearance of anti-HDV and HDV RNA did occur over time, albeit the chance is rare.

Early Fibrosis but Late Tumor Stage and Worse Outcomes in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients Without Hepatitis B or Hepatitis C.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The features of non-viral, nonalcohol hepatocellular carcinoma (NBNC-HCC) remain elusive. The aim of this study was to investigate this clinical characteristics and overall survival of NBNC-HCC compared to hepatitis B- (HBV-HCC) and hepatitis C-related (HCV-HCC) HCC. METHODS: We analyzed the etiologies, fibrosis stages, clinical data, and outcomes of newly diagnosed patients with HCC. RESULTS: A total of 1777 HCC patients were recruited, including 332 patients with NBNC-HCC, 682 patients with HBV-HCC, 680 patients with HCV-HCC, and 83 patients with HBV/HCV HCC. Patients with NBNC-HCC were older (69.9 ± 11.9 years). Patients with NBNC-HCC exhibited a higher prevalence of diabetes (43.9%) compared to the HBV-HCC (27.1%, p < 0.05) and HCV-HCC (30.2%, p < 0.05) groups. Compared to patients from the viral-related HCC groups, patients with NBNC-HCC exhibited a significantly lower fibrosis stage. NBNC-HCC patients exhibited a higher proportion of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) classification stage C and stage D compared to patients from the HBV-HCC and HCV-HCC groups. With a mean of 2.33 ± 2.31 years of follow-up, the median survival of patients with NBNC-HCC was 1.75 (95% CI 1.33-2.17) years, which was significantly lower than that of patients with HBV-HCC (p = 0.041) and HCV-HCC (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with NBNC-HCC have a higher risk of diabetes than patients with HCC of viral etiologies. Although patients with NBNC-HCC exhibited a milder fibrosis stage, their more advanced HCC stages and worse overall survival should be taken into consideration in clinical care.

Risk stratification of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease across body mass index in a community basis.

BACKGROUND: The features and risk analysis of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in a community-based setting remain elusive. The predictors between obese and lean subjects need further clarification. We aimed to assess the characteristics of NAFLD during a community screening. The associated metabolic abnormalities and cardiovascular risk assessment were also analyzed. METHODS: A total of 2483 subjects receiving multi-purpose health screening at 10 primary care centers were recruited. They received clinical assessment, including demographic data, laboratory examination, and abdominal sonography. RESULTS: The prevalence of NAFLD and metabolic syndrome were 44.5%, and 15.8%, respectively. Among those NAFLD subjects, 1212 (48.8%) subjects were obese (BMI≥ 24 kg/m2). There was an increasing trend of NAFLD according to age, ranging from 25.8% of those aged <30 years to 54.4% of those aged 50-70 years (P for trend< 0.0001). High insulin resistance (IR) was the significant predictive factor for NAFLD in both obese (odds ratio [OR] = 3.85, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.87-8.36, P = 0.0002) and lean subjects (OR = 2.52, 95% CI = 1.13-5.54, p = 0.02). The prevalence of high Framingham Risk Score (≥7.5%) was 56.7% (211/372) among the male subjects, which was significantly higher than that (26%, 191/734) of the females (P < 0.001). There was a significant increase of high Framingham Risk Score according to BMI, ranging from 23.1% of BMI<24 kg/m2 to 45% of BMI>27 kg/m2 (P for trend< 0.0001). CONCLUSION: IR is predictive of NAFLD irrespective of BMI. The cardiovascular risk may exist in lean NAFLD subjects.

Clusters of Circulating let-7 Family Tumor Suppressors Are Associated with Clinical Characteristics of Chronic Hepatitis C.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections can cause permanent liver-related diseases, including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Low mortality and incidence of HCC have been observed in patients with chronic hepatitis C undergoing direct-acting antiviral therapy. Tumor suppressive let-7 family members are down-regulated in HCC. The present study, therefore, aimed to investigate whether expression levels for the full spectrum of let-7 family members (let-7a, 7b, 7c, 7d, 7e, 7f, 7g, 7i, and miR-98) in the circulatory system are useful as surveillance biomarkers for liver-related diseases to monitor treatment efficacy during HCV infection. To this end, we measured the levels of mature circulating let-7 family members using quantitative reverse transcription-PCR in 236 patients with HCV infection, and 147 age- and sex-matched controls. Using hierarchical cluster analysis and principal component analysis, three clusters were obtained after measuring expression levels of let-7 family members in the patients and controls. Cluster 1 included let-7a/d/e/g, Cluster 2 comprised let-7b and let-7i, and Cluster 3 comprised let-7c/f/miR-98. Let-7b/c/g represented the three clusters and showed the best survival response to liver cancer when analyzed with respect to patient data. Therefore, considering the circulating levels of let7 b/c/g as representatives of the let-7 family may facilitate effective monitoring of liver-related disease.

Pretreatment Hepatitis B Viral Load Predicts Long-Term Hepatitis B Response After Anti-Hepatitis C Therapy in Hepatitis B/C Dual-Infected Patients.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to investigate the long-term outcomes in hepatitis B (HBV)/hepatitis C virus (HCV) dual-infected patients after anti-HCV therapy. METHODS: A total of 192 HBV/HCV dual-infected patients who had received pegylated interferon treatment were recruited. The investigation outcomes included HBV DNA ≥2000 IU/mL, with or without alanine aminotransferase (ALT) ≥2-fold the upper limit of normal, and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance. RESULTS: Four (2.1%) patients developed early HBV reactivation before the end of treatment. Fifty (26.6%) of the remaining patients had an episode of HBV DNA ≥2000 IU/mL in a mean follow-up of 68.8 months. The risk was 4.6 per 100 person years. Only 19 (10.1%) patients developed concomitant ALT flare with oral HBV antiviral therapy; the risk was 1.7 per 100 person years. Despite HBV flare, 67 (34.9%) patients had a favorable outcome of HBsAg seroclearance. The probability was 5.7 per 100 person years. A pretreatment HBV DNA level of 300 IU/mL served as an independent predictor for all the outcomes. The combined pretreatment HBV DNA level and HCV response further enhanced the prediction of HBV flare and HBsAg seroclearance. CONCLUSIONS: A pretreatment HBV DNA level of 300 IU/mL predicts HBV flare and HBsAg seroclearance after anti-HCV therapy.