Point Prevalence Estimates of Activity-Limiting Long-term Symptoms Among United States Adults ≥1 Month After Reported Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection, 1 November 2021.

BACKGROUND: Although most adults infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) fully recover, a proportion have ongoing symptoms, or post-COVID conditions (PCC), after infection. The objective of this analysis was to estimate the number of United States (US) adults with activity-limiting PCC on 1 November 2021. METHODS: We modeled the prevalence of PCC using reported infections occurring from 1 February 2020 to 30 September 2021, and population-based, household survey data on new activity-limiting symptoms ≥1 month following SARS-CoV-2 infection. From these data sources, we estimated the number and proportion of US adults with activity-limiting PCC on 1 November 2021 as 95% uncertainty intervals, stratified by sex and age. Sensitivity analyses adjusted for underascertainment of infections and uncertainty about symptom duration. RESULTS: On 1 November 2021, at least 3.0-5.0 million US adults, or 1.2%-1.9% of the US adult population, were estimated to have activity-limiting PCC of ≥1 month's duration. Population prevalence was higher in females (1.4%-2.2%) than males. The estimated prevalence after adjusting for underascertainment of infections was 1.7%-3.8%. CONCLUSIONS: Millions of US adults were estimated to have activity-limiting PCC. These estimates can support future efforts to address the impact of PCC on the US population.

Standard-dose versus MF59-adjuvanted, high-dose or recombinant-hemagglutinin influenza vaccine immunogenicity in older adults: comparison of A(H3N2) antibody response by prior season's vaccine status.

BACKGROUND: Annual influenza vaccination is recommended for older adults but repeated vaccination with standard-dose influenza vaccine has been linked to reduced immunogenicity and effectiveness, especially against A(H3N2) viruses. METHODS: Community-dwelling Hong Kong adults aged 65-82 years were randomly allocated to receive 2017/18 standard-dose quadrivalent, MF59-adjuvanted trivalent, high-dose trivalent, and recombinant-HA quadrivalent vaccination. Antibody response to unchanged A(H3N2) vaccine antigen was compared among participants with and without self-reported prior year (2016/17) standard-dose vaccination. RESULTS: Mean fold rise (MFR) in antibody titers from Day 0 to Day 30 by hemagglutination inhibition and virus microneutralization assays were lower among 2017/18 standard-dose and enhanced vaccine recipients with (range, 1.7-3.0) vs. without (range, 4.3-14.3) prior 2016/17 vaccination. MFR was significantly reduced by about one half to four fifths for previously vaccinated recipients of standard-dose and all three enhanced vaccines (ß range, 0.21-0.48). Among prior-year vaccinated older adults, enhanced vaccines induced higher 1.43 to 2.39-fold geometric mean titers and 1.28 to 1.74-fold MFR vs. standard-dose vaccine by microneutralization assay. CONCLUSIONS: In the context of unchanged A(H3N2) vaccine strain, prior-year vaccination was associated with reduced antibody response among both standard-dose and enhanced influenza vaccine recipients. Enhanced vaccines improved antibody response among older adults with prior-year standard-dose vaccination.

High Influenza Incidence and Disease Severity Among Children and Adolescents Aged <18 Years - United States, 2022-23 Season.

During the 2022-23 influenza season, early increases in influenza activity, co-circulation of influenza with other respiratory viruses, and high influenza-associated hospitalization rates, particularly among children and adolescents, were observed. This report describes the 2022-23 influenza season among children and adolescents aged <18 years, including the seasonal severity assessment; estimates of U.S. influenza-associated medical visits, hospitalizations, and deaths; and characteristics of influenza-associated hospitalizations. The 2022-23 influenza season had high severity among children and adolescents compared with thresholds based on previous seasons' influenza-associated outpatient visits, hospitalization rates, and deaths. Nationally, the incidences of influenza-associated outpatient visits and hospitalization for the 2022-23 season were similar for children aged <5 years and higher for children and adolescents aged 5-17 years compared with previous seasons. Peak influenza-associated outpatient and hospitalization activity occurred in late November and early December. Among children and adolescents hospitalized with influenza during the 2022-23 season in hospitals participating in the Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network, a lower proportion were vaccinated (18.3%) compared with previous seasons (35.8%-41.8%). Early influenza circulation, before many children and adolescents had been vaccinated, might have contributed to the high hospitalization rates during the 2022-23 season. Among symptomatic hospitalized patients, receipt of influenza antiviral treatment (64.9%) was lower than during pre-COVID-19 pandemic seasons (80.8%-87.1%). CDC recommends that all persons aged ≥6 months without contraindications should receive the annual influenza vaccine, ideally by the end of October.

Use of At-Home COVID-19 Tests - United States, August 23, 2021-March 12, 2022.

COVID-19 testing provides information regarding exposure and transmission risks, guides preventative measures (e.g., if and when to start and end isolation and quarantine), identifies opportunities for appropriate treatments, and helps assess disease prevalence (1). At-home rapid COVID-19 antigen tests (at-home tests) are a convenient and accessible alternative to laboratory-based diagnostic nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 (2-4). With the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta) and B.1.1.529 (Omicron) variants in 2021, demand for at-home tests increased† (5). At-home tests are commonly used for school- or employer-mandated testing and for confirmation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a COVID-19-like illness or following exposure (6). Mandated COVID-19 reporting requirements omit at-home tests, and there are no standard processes for test takers or manufacturers to share results with appropriate health officials (2). Therefore, with increased COVID-19 at-home test use, laboratory-based reporting systems might increasingly underreport the actual incidence of infection. Data from a cross-sectional, nonprobability-based online survey (August 23, 2021-March 12, 2022) of U.S. adults aged ≥18 years were used to estimate self-reported at-home test use over time, and by demographic characteristics, geography, symptoms/syndromes, and reasons for testing. From the Delta-predominant period (August 23-December 11, 2021) to the Omicron-predominant period (December 19, 2021-March 12, 2022)§ (7), at-home test use among respondents with self-reported COVID-19-like illness¶ more than tripled from 5.7% to 20.1%. The two most commonly reported reasons for testing among persons who used an at-home test were COVID-19 exposure (39.4%) and COVID-19-like symptoms (28.9%). At-home test use differed by race (e.g., self-identified as White [5.9%] versus self-identified as Black [2.8%]), age (adults aged 30-39 years [6.4%] versus adults aged ≥75 years [3.6%]), household income (>$150,000 [9.5%] versus $50,000-$74,999 [4.7%]), education (postgraduate degree [8.4%] versus high school or less [3.5%]), and geography (New England division [9.6%] versus West South Central division [3.7%]). COVID-19 testing, including at-home tests, along with prevention measures, such as quarantine and isolation when warranted, wearing a well-fitted mask when recommended after a positive test or known exposure, and staying up to date with vaccination,** can help reduce the spread of COVID-19. Further, providing reliable and low-cost or free at-home test kits to underserved populations with otherwise limited access to COVID-19 testing could assist with continued prevention efforts.

Trends in Disease Severity and Health Care Utilization During the Early Omicron Variant Period Compared with Previous SARS-CoV-2 High Transmission Periods - United States, December 2020-January 2022.

The B.1.1.529 (Omicron) variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, was first clinically identified in the United States on December 1, 2021, and spread rapidly. By late December, it became the predominant strain, and by January 15, 2022, it represented 99.5% of sequenced specimens in the United States* (1). The Omicron variant has been shown to be more transmissible and less virulent than previously circulating variants (2,3). To better understand the severity of disease and health care utilization associated with the emergence of the Omicron variant in the United States, CDC examined data from three surveillance systems and a large health care database to assess multiple indicators across three high-COVID-19 transmission periods: December 1, 2020-February 28, 2021 (winter 2020-21); July 15-October 31, 2021 (SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 [Delta] predominance); and December 19, 2021-January 15, 2022 (Omicron predominance). The highest daily 7-day moving average to date of cases (798,976 daily cases during January 9-15, 2022), emergency department (ED) visits (48,238), and admissions (21,586) were reported during the Omicron period, however, the highest daily 7-day moving average of deaths (1,854) was lower than during previous periods. During the Omicron period, a maximum of 20.6% of staffed inpatient beds were in use for COVID-19 patients, 3.4 and 7.2 percentage points higher than during the winter 2020-21 and Delta periods, respectively. However, intensive care unit (ICU) bed use did not increase to the same degree: 30.4% of staffed ICU beds were in use for COVID-19 patients during the Omicron period, 0.5 percentage points lower than during the winter 2020-21 period and 1.2 percentage points higher than during the Delta period. The ratio of peak ED visits to cases (event-to-case ratios) (87 per 1,000 cases), hospital admissions (27 per 1,000 cases), and deaths (nine per 1,000 cases [lagged by 3 weeks]) during the Omicron period were lower than those observed during the winter 2020-21 (92, 68, and 16 respectively) and Delta (167, 78, and 13, respectively) periods. Further, among hospitalized COVID-19 patients from 199 U.S. hospitals, the mean length of stay and percentages who were admitted to an ICU, received invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), and died while in the hospital were lower during the Omicron period than during previous periods. COVID-19 disease severity appears to be lower during the Omicron period than during previous periods of high transmission, likely related to higher vaccination coverage,† which reduces disease severity (4), lower virulence of the Omicron variant (3,5,6), and infection-acquired immunity (3,7). Although disease severity appears lower with the Omicron variant, the high volume of ED visits and hospitalizations can strain local health care systems in the United States, and the average daily number of deaths remains substantial.§ This underscores the importance of national emergency preparedness, specifically, hospital surge capacity and the ability to adequately staff local health care systems. In addition, being up to date on vaccination and following other recommended prevention strategies are critical to preventing infections, severe illness, or death from COVID-19.

Influenza Activity and Composition of the 2022-23 Influenza Vaccine - United States, 2021-22 Season.

Before the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, influenza activity in the United States typically began to increase in the fall and peaked in February. During the 2021-22 season, influenza activity began to increase in November and remained elevated until mid-June, featuring two distinct waves, with A(H3N2) viruses predominating for the entire season. This report summarizes influenza activity during October 3, 2021-June 11, 2022, in the United States and describes the composition of the Northern Hemisphere 2022-23 influenza vaccine. Although influenza activity is decreasing and circulation during summer is typically low, remaining vigilant for influenza infections, performing testing for seasonal influenza viruses, and monitoring for novel influenza A virus infections are important. An outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) is ongoing; health care providers and persons with exposure to sick or infected birds should remain vigilant for onset of symptoms consistent with influenza. Receiving a seasonal influenza vaccine each year remains the best way to protect against seasonal influenza and its potentially severe consequences.

Estimated Incidence of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Illness and Hospitalization-United States, February-September 2020.

BACKGROUND: In the United States, laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is nationally notifiable. However, reported case counts are recognized to be less than the true number of cases because detection and reporting are incomplete and can vary by disease severity, geography, and over time. METHODS: To estimate the cumulative incidence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections, symptomatic illnesses, and hospitalizations, we adapted a simple probabilistic multiplier model. Laboratory-confirmed case counts that were reported nationally were adjusted for sources of underdetection based on testing practices in inpatient and outpatient settings and assay sensitivity. RESULTS: We estimated that through the end of September, 1 of every 2.5 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 2.0-3.1) hospitalized infections and 1 of every 7.1 (95% UI: 5.8-9.0) nonhospitalized illnesses may have been nationally reported. Applying these multipliers to reported SARS-CoV-2 cases along with data on the prevalence of asymptomatic infection from published systematic reviews, we estimate that 2.4 million hospitalizations, 44.8 million symptomatic illnesses, and 52.9 million total infections may have occurred in the US population from 27 February-30 September 2020. CONCLUSIONS: These preliminary estimates help demonstrate the societal and healthcare burdens of the COVID-19 pandemic and can help inform resource allocation and mitigation planning.

Burden of Influenza-Associated Respiratory Hospitalizations, Vietnam, 2014-2016.

Influenza burden estimates are essential to informing prevention and control policies. To complement recent influenza vaccine production capacity in Vietnam, we used acute respiratory infection (ARI) hospitalization data, severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) surveillance data, and provincial population data from 4 provinces representing Vietnam's major regions during 2014-2016 to calculate provincial and national influenza-associated ARI and SARI hospitalization rates. We determined the proportion of ARI admissions meeting the World Health Organization SARI case definition through medical record review. The mean influenza-associated hospitalization rates per 100,000 population were 218 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 197-238) for ARI and 134 (95% UI 119-149) for SARI. Influenza-associated SARI hospitalization rates per 100,000 population were highest among children <5 years of age (1,123; 95% UI 946-1,301) and adults >65 years of age (207; 95% UI 186-227), underscoring the need for prevention and control measures, such as vaccination, in these at-risk populations.

Global Seasonal Influenza Mortality Estimates: A Comparison of 3 Different Approaches.

Prior to updating global influenza-associated mortality estimates, the World Health Organization convened a consultation in July 2017 to understand differences in methodology and implications for results of 3 influenza mortality projects from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Netherlands Institute for Health Service Research's Global Pandemic Mortality Project II (GLaMOR), and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). The expert panel reviewed estimates and discussed differences in data sources, analysis, and modeling assumptions. We performed a comparison analysis of the estimates. Influenza-associated respiratory death counts were comparable between CDC and GLaMOR; the IHME estimate was considerably lower. The greatest country-specific influenza-associated fold differences in mortality rate between CDC and IHME estimates and between GLaMOR and IHME estimates were among countries in Southeast Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean region. The data envelope used for the calculation was one of the major differences (CDC and GLaMOR: all respiratory deaths; IHME: lower-respiratory infection deaths). With the assumption that there is only one cause of death for each death, IHME estimates a fraction of the full influenza-associated respiratory mortality that is measured by the other 2 groups. Wide variability of parameters was observed. Continued coordination between groups could assist with better understanding of methodological differences and new approaches to estimating influenza deaths globally.

Comparative Reactogenicity of Enhanced Influenza Vaccines in Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: We analyzed data from a randomized controlled trial on the reactogenicity of 3 enhanced influenza vaccines compared with standard-dose (SD) inactivated influenza vaccine. METHODS: We enrolled community-dwelling older adults in Hong Kong, and we randomly allocated them to receive 2017-2018 northern hemisphere formulations of SD vaccine (FluQuadri; Sanofi Pasteur), MF59-adjuvanted vaccine (FLUAD; Seqirus), high-dose (HD) vaccine (Fluzone High-Dose; Sanofi Pasteur), or recombinant hemagglutinin vaccine (Flublok; Sanofi Pasteur). Local and systemic reactions were evaluated at days 1, 3, 7, and 14 after vaccination. RESULTS: Reported reactions were generally mild and short-lived. Systemic reactions occurred in similar proportions of participants by vaccine. Some local reactions were slightly more frequently reported among recipients of the MF59-adjuvanted and HD vaccines than among SD vaccine recipients. Participants reporting feverishness 1 day after vaccination had mean fold rises in postvaccination hemagglutination inhibition titers that were 1.85-fold higher (95% confidence interval, 1.01-3.38) for A(H1N1) than in those who did not report feverishness. CONCLUSIONS: Some acute local reactions were more frequent after vaccination with MF59-adjuvanted and HD influenza vaccines, compared with SD inactivated influenza vaccine, whereas systemic symptoms occurred at similar frequencies in all groups. The association between feverishness and immunogenicity should be further investigated in a larger population. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT03330132.

Comparative Immunogenicity of Several Enhanced Influenza Vaccine Options for Older Adults: A Randomized, Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Enhanced influenza vaccines may improve protection for older adults, but comparative immunogenicity data are limited. Our objective was to examine immune responses to enhanced influenza vaccines, compared to standard-dose vaccines, in community-dwelling older adults. METHODS: Community-dwelling older adults aged 65-82 years in Hong Kong were randomly allocated (October 2017-January 2018) to receive 2017-2018 Northern hemisphere formulations of a standard-dose quadrivalent vaccine, MF59-adjuvanted trivalent vaccine, high-dose trivalent vaccine, or recombinant-hemagglutinin (rHA) quadrivalent vaccine. Sera collected from 200 recipients of each vaccine before and at 30-days postvaccination were assessed for antibodies to egg-propagated vaccine strains by hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) and to cell-propagated A/Hong Kong/4801/2014(H3N2) virus by microneutralization (MN). Influenza-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T cell responses were assessed in 20 participants per group. RESULTS: Mean fold rises (MFR) in HAI titers to egg-propagated A(H1N1) and A(H3N2) and the MFR in MN to cell-propagated A(H3N2) were statistically significantly higher in the enhanced vaccine groups, compared to the standard-dose vaccine. The MFR in MN to cell-propagated A(H3N2) was highest among rHA recipients (4.7), followed by high-dose (3.4) and MF59-adjuvanted (2.9) recipients, compared to standard-dose recipients (2.3). Similarly, the ratio of postvaccination MN titers among rHA recipients to cell-propagated A(H3N2) recipients was 2.57-fold higher than the standard-dose vaccine, which was statistically higher than the high-dose (1.33-fold) and MF59-adjuvanted (1.43-fold) recipient ratios. Enhanced vaccines also resulted in the boosting of T-cell responses. CONCLUSIONS: In this head-to-head comparison, older adults receiving enhanced vaccines showed improved humoral and cell-mediated immune responses, compared to standard-dose vaccine recipients. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT03330132.

Seasonal Influenza and Avian Influenza A(H5N1) Virus Surveillance among Inpatients and Outpatients, East Jakarta, Indonesia, 2011-2014.

During October 2011-September 2014, we screened respiratory specimens for seasonal and avian influenza A(H5N1) virus infections among outpatients with influenza-like illness and inpatients with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) in East Jakarta, an Indonesia district with high incidence of H5N1 virus infection among poultry. In total, 31% (1,875/6,008) of influenza-like illness case-patients and 15% (571/3,811) of SARI case-patients tested positive for influenza virus. Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, influenza A(H3N2), and influenza B virus infections were detected in all 3 years, and the epidemic season extended from November through May. Although 28% (2,810/10,135) of case-patients reported exposure to poultry, only 1 SARI case-patient with an H5N1 virus infection was detected. Therefore, targeted screening among case-patients with high-risk poultry exposures (e.g., a recent visit to a live bird market or close proximity to sick or dead poultry) may be a more efficient routine surveillance strategy for H5N1 virus in these types of settings.

Estimates of global seasonal influenza-associated respiratory mortality: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of influenza-associated mortality are important for national and international decision making on public health priorities. Previous estimates of 250 000-500 000 annual influenza deaths are outdated. We updated the estimated number of global annual influenza-associated respiratory deaths using country-specific influenza-associated excess respiratory mortality estimates from 1999-2015. METHODS: We estimated country-specific influenza-associated respiratory excess mortality rates (EMR) for 33 countries using time series log-linear regression models with vital death records and influenza surveillance data. To extrapolate estimates to countries without data, we divided countries into three analytic divisions for three age groups (<65 years, 65-74 years, and ≥75 years) using WHO Global Health Estimate (GHE) respiratory infection mortality rates. We calculated mortality rate ratios (MRR) to account for differences in risk of influenza death across countries by comparing GHE respiratory infection mortality rates from countries without EMR estimates with those with estimates. To calculate death estimates for individual countries within each age-specific analytic division, we multiplied randomly selected mean annual EMRs by the country's MRR and population. Global 95% credible interval (CrI) estimates were obtained from the posterior distribution of the sum of country-specific estimates to represent the range of possible influenza-associated deaths in a season or year. We calculated influenza-associated deaths for children younger than 5 years for 92 countries with high rates of mortality due to respiratory infection using the same methods. FINDINGS: EMR-contributing countries represented 57% of the global population. The estimated mean annual influenza-associated respiratory EMR ranged from 0·1 to 6·4 per 100 000 individuals for people younger than 65 years, 2·9 to 44·0 per 100 000 individuals for people aged between 65 and 74 years, and 17·9 to 223·5 per 100 000 for people older than 75 years. We estimated that 291 243-645 832 seasonal influenza-associated respiratory deaths (4·0-8·8 per 100 000 individuals) occur annually. The highest mortality rates were estimated in sub-Saharan Africa (2·8-16·5 per 100 000 individuals), southeast Asia (3·5-9·2 per 100 000 individuals), and among people aged 75 years or older (51·3-99·4 per 100 000 individuals). For 92 countries, we estimated that among children younger than 5 years, 9243-105 690 influenza-associated respiratory deaths occur annually. INTERPRETATION: These global influenza-associated respiratory mortality estimates are higher than previously reported, suggesting that previous estimates might have underestimated disease burden. The contribution of non-respiratory causes of death to global influenza-associated mortality should be investigated. FUNDING: None.

Clusters of Human Infection and Human-to-Human Transmission of Avian Influenza A(H7N9) Virus, 2013-2017.

To detect changes in human-to-human transmission of influenza A(H7N9) virus, we analyzed characteristics of 40 clusters of case-patients during 5 epidemics in China in 2013-2017. Similarities in number and size of clusters and proportion of clusters with probable human-to-human transmission across all epidemics suggest no change in human-to-human transmission risk.

Effectiveness of an educational intervention to improve antibiotic dispensing practices for acute respiratory illness among drug sellers in pharmacies, a pilot study in Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Inappropriate dispensing of antibiotics for acute respiratory illness (ARI) is common among drug sellers in Bangladesh. In this study, we evaluated the impact of an educational intervention to promote guidelines for better ARI management among drug sellers. METHODS: From June 2012 to December 2013, we conducted baseline and post-intervention surveys on dispensing practices in 100 pharmacies within Dhaka city. In these surveys, drug sellers participated in 6 standardized role-playing scenarios led by study staffs acting as caregivers of ARI patients and drug sellers were blinded to these surveys. After the baseline survey, we developed ARI guidelines and facilitated a one-day educational intervention about ARI management for drug sellers. Our guidelines only recommended antibiotics for children with complicated ARI. Finally, we conducted the six month post-intervention survey using the same scenarios to record changes in drug dispensing practices. RESULTS: Only 2/3 of participating pharmacies were licensed and few (11%) of drug sellers had pharmacy training. All the drug sellers were male, had a median age of 34 years (IQR 28-41). For children, dispensing of antibiotics for uncomplicated ARI decreased (30% baseline vs. 21% post-intervention; p = 0.04), but drug sellers were equally likely to dispense antibiotics for complicated ARI (15% baseline vs. 17% post-intervention; p = 0.6) and referrals to physicians for complicated ARIs decreased (70% baseline vs. 58% post-intervention; p = 0.03). For adults, antibiotic dispensing remained similar for uncomplicated ARI (48% baseline vs. 40% post-intervention; p = 0.1) but increased among those with complicated ARI (44% baseline vs. 78% post-intervention; p < 0.001). Although our evidence-based guidelines recommended against prescribing antihistamines for children, drug sellers continued to sell similar amounts for uncomplicated ARI (33% baseline vs. 32% post-intervention; p = 0.9). CONCLUSIONS: Despite the intervention, drug sellers continued to frequently dispense antibiotics for ARI, except for children with uncomplicated ARI. Pairing educational interventions among drug sellers with raising awareness about proper antibiotic use among general population should be further explored. In addition, annual licensing and an reaccreditation system with comprehensive monitoring should be enforced, using penalties for non-compliant pharmacies as possible incentives for appropriate dispensing practices.

Preliminary Epidemiology of Human Infections with Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H7N9) Virus, China, 2017.

We compared the characteristics of cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) A(H7N9) virus infections in China. HPAI A(H7N9) case-patients were more likely to have had exposure to sick and dead poultry in rural areas and were hospitalized earlier than were LPAI A(H7N9) case-patients.

Evaluating Hospital-Based Surveillance for Outbreak Detection in Bangladesh: Analysis of Healthcare Utilization Data.

BACKGROUND: The International Health Regulations outline core requirements to ensure the detection of public health threats of international concern. Assessing the capacity of surveillance systems to detect these threats is crucial for evaluating a country's ability to meet these requirements. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We propose a framework to evaluate the sensitivity and representativeness of hospital-based surveillance and apply it to severe neurological infectious diseases and fatal respiratory infectious diseases in Bangladesh. We identified cases in selected communities within surveillance hospital catchment areas using key informant and house-to-house surveys and ascertained where cases had sought care. We estimated the probability of surveillance detecting different sized outbreaks by distance from the surveillance hospital and compared characteristics of cases identified in the community and cases attending surveillance hospitals. We estimated that surveillance detected 26% (95% CI 18%-33%) of severe neurological disease cases and 18% (95% CI 16%-21%) of fatal respiratory disease cases residing at 10 km distance from a surveillance hospital. Detection probabilities decreased markedly with distance. The probability of detecting small outbreaks (three cases) dropped below 50% at distances greater than 26 km for severe neurological disease and at distances greater than 7 km for fatal respiratory disease. Characteristics of cases attending surveillance hospitals were largely representative of all cases; however, neurological disease cases aged <5 y or from the lowest socioeconomic group and fatal respiratory disease cases aged ≥60 y were underrepresented. Our estimates of outbreak detection rely on suspected cases that attend a surveillance hospital receiving laboratory confirmation of disease and being reported to the surveillance system. The extent to which this occurs will depend on disease characteristics (e.g., severity and symptom specificity) and surveillance resources. CONCLUSION: We present a new approach to evaluating the sensitivity and representativeness of hospital-based surveillance, making it possible to predict its ability to detect emerging threats.

Increase in Human Infections with Avian Influenza A(H7N9) Virus During the Fifth Epidemic - China, October 2016-February 2017.

During March 2013-February 24, 2017, annual epidemics of avian influenza A(H7N9) in China resulted in 1,258 avian influenza A(H7N9) virus infections in humans being reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) by the National Health and Family Planning Commission of China and other regional sources (1). During the first four epidemics, 88% of patients developed pneumonia, 68% were admitted to an intensive care unit, and 41% died (2). Candidate vaccine viruses (CVVs) were developed, and vaccine was manufactured based on representative viruses detected after the emergence of A(H7N9) virus in humans in 2013. During the ongoing fifth epidemic (beginning October 1, 2016),* 460 human infections with A(H7N9) virus have been reported, including 453 in mainland China, six associated with travel to mainland China from Hong Kong (four cases), Macao (one) and Taiwan (one), and one in an asymptomatic poultry worker in Macao (1). Although the clinical characteristics and risk factors for human infections do not appear to have changed (2,3), the reported human infections during the fifth epidemic represent a significant increase compared with the first four epidemics, which resulted in 135 (first epidemic), 320 (second), 226 (third), and 119 (fourth epidemic) human infections (2). Most human infections continue to result in severe respiratory illness and have been associated with poultry exposure. Although some limited human-to-human spread continues to be identified, no sustained human-to-human A(H7N9) transmission has been observed (2,3).

Update: Increase in Human Infections with Novel Asian Lineage Avian Influenza A(H7N9) Viruses During the Fifth Epidemic - China, October 1, 2016-August 7, 2017.

Among all influenza viruses assessed using CDC's Influenza Risk Assessment Tool (IRAT), the Asian lineage avian influenza A(H7N9) virus (Asian H7N9), first reported in China in March 2013,* is ranked as the influenza virus with the highest potential pandemic risk (1). During October 1, 2016-August 7, 2017, the National Health and Family Planning Commission of China; CDC, Taiwan; the Hong Kong Centre for Health Protection; and the Macao CDC reported 759 human infections with Asian H7N9 viruses, including 281 deaths, to the World Health Organization (WHO), making this the largest of the five epidemics of Asian H7N9 infections that have occurred since 2013 (Figure 1). This report summarizes new viral and epidemiologic features identified during the fifth epidemic of Asian H7N9 in China and summarizes ongoing measures to enhance pandemic preparedness. Infections in humans and poultry were reported from most areas of China, including provinces bordering other countries, indicating extensive, ongoing geographic spread. The risk to the general public is very low and most human infections were, and continue to be, associated with poultry exposure, especially at live bird markets in mainland China. Throughout the first four epidemics of Asian H7N9 infections, only low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses were detected among human, poultry, and environmental specimens and samples. During the fifth epidemic, mutations were detected among some Asian H7N9 viruses, identifying the emergence of high pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses as well as viruses with reduced susceptibility to influenza antiviral medications recommended for treatment. Furthermore, the fifth-epidemic viruses diverged genetically into two separate lineages (Pearl River Delta lineage and Yangtze River Delta lineage), with Yangtze River Delta lineage viruses emerging as antigenically different compared with those from earlier epidemics. Because of its pandemic potential, candidate vaccine viruses (CVV) were produced in 2013 that have been used to make vaccines against Asian H7N9 viruses circulating at that time. CDC is working with partners to enhance surveillance for Asian H7N9 viruses in humans and poultry, to improve laboratory capability to detect and characterize H7N9 viruses, and to develop, test and distribute new CVV that could be used for vaccine production if a vaccine is needed.

Assessing Change in Avian Influenza A(H7N9) Virus Infections During the Fourth Epidemic - China, September 2015-August 2016.

Since human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus were first reported by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) in March 2013 (1), mainland China has experienced four influenza A(H7N9) virus epidemics. Prior investigations demonstrated that age and sex distribution, clinical features, and exposure history of A(H7N9) virus human infections reported during the first three epidemics were similar (2). In this report, epidemiology and virology data from the most recent, fourth epidemic (September 2015-August 2016) were compared with those from the three earlier epidemics. Whereas age and sex distribution and exposure history in the fourth epidemic were similar to those in the first three epidemics, the fourth epidemic demonstrated a greater proportion of infected persons living in rural areas, a continued spread of the virus to new areas, and a longer epidemic period. The genetic markers of mammalian adaptation and antiviral resistance remained similar across each epidemic, and viruses from the fourth epidemic remained antigenically well matched to current candidate vaccine viruses. Although there is no evidence of increased human-to-human transmissibility of A(H7N9) viruses, the continued geographic spread, identification of novel reassortant viruses, and pandemic potential of the virus underscore the importance of rigorous A(H7N9) virus surveillance and continued risk assessment in China and neighboring countries.