Climate drives the geography of marine consumption by changing predator communities.

The global distribution of primary production and consumption by humans (fisheries) is well-documented, but we have no map linking the central ecological process of consumption within food webs to temperature and other ecological drivers. Using standardized assays that span 105° of latitude on four continents, we show that rates of bait consumption by generalist predators in shallow marine ecosystems are tightly linked to both temperature and the composition of consumer assemblages. Unexpectedly, rates of consumption peaked at midlatitudes (25 to 35°) in both Northern and Southern Hemispheres across both seagrass and unvegetated sediment habitats. This pattern contrasts with terrestrial systems, where biotic interactions reportedly weaken away from the equator, but it parallels an emerging pattern of a subtropical peak in marine biodiversity. The higher consumption at midlatitudes was closely related to the type of consumers present, which explained rates of consumption better than consumer density, biomass, species diversity, or habitat. Indeed, the apparent effect of temperature on consumption was mostly driven by temperature-associated turnover in consumer community composition. Our findings reinforce the key influence of climate warming on altered species composition and highlight its implications for the functioning of Earth's ecosystems.

The value of estuarine producers to fisheries: A case study of Richmond River Estuary.

Nutrient input from estuarine producers underpins coastal fisheries production and knowing which producers are the most responsible for fish diet helps effectively protect and restore coastal ecosystems. Focussing on the Richmond River in Australia as a case study, we sampled the main estuarine producers and estimated their proportional contributions of nutritional input to seven commercially important fisheries species using Bayesian isotope mixing models. We valued the dietary input of estuarine producers to the commercial fisheries by combining dietary contribution estimates with total annual catch data from commercial fishers. A conservative estimate is that estuarine producers in the Richmond River Estuary contribute at least 82 725 kg (78%) of the total annual catch of the seven commercially important fish with an estimated annual value of $AU 450 117. Sea mullet and Mud crab contributed 95% of the total catch, and 93% of the total value assigned to estuarine producers. The two highest valued estuarine producers were tidal marsh (Juncus kraussii) $AU 82 432 and seagrass (Zostera capricorni) $AU 65 423. This study demonstrates the substantial role of estuarine producers to commercial fisheries production and the fisheries economy more broadly. With large areas of estuarine producers under threat globally from land clearing for agriculture, aquaculture and urbanisation, the results presented here provide evidence to support the value of coastal habitats and benefits of their preservation and restoration.

Blueprint for the ideal microplastic effect study: Critical issues of current experimental approaches and envisioning a path forward.

This article presents a novel conceptual blueprint for an 'ideal', i.e., ecologically relevant, microplastic effect study. The blueprint considers how microplastics should be characterized and applied in laboratory experiments, and how biological responses should be measured to assure unbiased data that reliably reflect the effects of microplastics on aquatic biota. This 'ideal' experiment, although practically unachievable, serves as a backdrop to improve specific aspects of experimental research on microplastic effects. In addition, a systematic and quantitative literature review identified and quantified departures of published experiments from the proposed 'ideal' design. These departures are related mainly to the experimental design of microplastic effect studies failing to mimic natural environments, and experiments with limited potential to be scaled-up to ecosystem level. To produce a valid and generalizable assessment of the effect of microplastics on biota, a quantitative meta-analysis was performed that incorporated the departure of studies from the 'ideal' experiment (a measure of experimental quality) and inverse variance (a measure of the study precision) as weighting coefficients. Greater weights were assigned to experiments with higher quality and/or with lower variance in the response variables. This double-weighting captures jointly the technical quality, ecological relevance and precision of estimates provided in each study. The blueprint and associated meta-analysis provide an improved baseline for the design of ecologically relevant and technically sound experiments to understand the effects of microplastics on single species, populations and, ultimately, entire ecosystems.

Assessing the potential for sea-based macroalgae cultivation and its application for nutrient removal in the Baltic Sea.

Marine eutrophication is a pervasive and growing threat to global sustainability. Macroalgal cultivation is a promising circular economy solution to achieve nutrient reduction and food security. However, the location of production hotspots is not well known. In this paper the production potential of macroalgae of high commercial value was predicted across the Baltic Sea region. In addition, the nutrient limitation within and adjacent to macroalgal farms was investigated to suggest optimal site-specific configuration of farms. The production potential of Saccharina latissima was largely driven by salinity and the highest production yields are expected in the westernmost Baltic Sea areas where salinity is >23. The direct and interactive effects of light availability, temperature, salinity and nutrient concentrations regulated the predicted changes in the production of Ulva intestinalis and Fucus vesiculosus. The western and southern Baltic Sea exhibited the highest farming potential for these species, with promising areas also in the eastern Baltic Sea. Macroalgal farming did not induce significant nutrient limitation. The expected spatial propagation of nutrient limitation caused by macroalgal farming was less than 100-250 m. Higher propagation distances were found in areas of low nutrient and low water exchange (e.g. offshore areas in the Baltic Proper) and smaller distances in areas of high nutrient and high water exchange (e.g. western Baltic Sea and Gulf of Riga). The generated maps provide the most sought-after input to support blue growth initiatives that foster the sustainable development of macroalgal cultivation and reduction of in situ nutrient loads in the Baltic Sea.

From ecosystems to socio-economic benefits: A systematic review of coastal ecosystem services in the Baltic Sea.

Seagrass meadows, algal forests and mussel beds are widely regarded as foundation species that support communities providing valuable ecosystem services in many coastal regions; however, quantitative evidence of the relationship is scarce. Using the Baltic Sea as a case study, a region of significant socio-economic importance in the northern hemisphere, we systematically synthesized the primary literature and summarized the current knowledge on ecosystem services derived from seagrass, macroalgae, and mussels (see animated video summary of the manuscript: Video abstract). We found 1740 individual ecosystem service records (ESR), 61% of which were related to macroalgae, 26% to mussel beds and 13% to seagrass meadows. The most frequently reported ecosystem services were raw material (533 ESR), habitat provision (262 ESR) and regulation of pollutants (215 ESR). Toxins (356 ESR) and nutrients (302 ESR) were the most well-documented pressures to services provided by coastal ecosystems. Next, we assessed the current state of knowledge as well as knowledge transfer of ecosystem services to policies through natural, social, human and economic dimensions, using a systematic scoring tool, the Eco-GAME matrix. We found good quantitative information about how ecosystems generated the service but almost no knowledge of how they translate into socio-economic benefits (8 out of 657 papers, 1.2%). While we are aware that research on Baltic Sea socio-economic benefits does exist, the link with ecosystems providing the service is mostly missing. To close this knowledge gap, we need a better analytical framework that is capable of directly linking existing quantitative information about ecosystem service generation with human benefit.

Integrating experimental and distribution data to predict future species patterns.

Predictive species distribution models are mostly based on statistical dependence between environmental and distributional data and therefore may fail to account for physiological limits and biological interactions that are fundamental when modelling species distributions under future climate conditions. Here, we developed a state-of-the-art method integrating biological theory with survey and experimental data in a way that allows us to explicitly model both physical tolerance limits of species and inherent natural variability in regional conditions and thereby improve the reliability of species distribution predictions under future climate conditions. By using a macroalga-herbivore association (Fucus vesiculosus - Idotea balthica) as a case study, we illustrated how salinity reduction and temperature increase under future climate conditions may significantly reduce the occurrence and biomass of these important coastal species. Moreover, we showed that the reduction of herbivore occurrence is linked to reduction of their host macroalgae. Spatial predictive modelling and experimental biology have been traditionally seen as separate fields but stronger interlinkages between these disciplines can improve species distribution projections under climate change. Experiments enable qualitative prior knowledge to be defined and identify cause-effect relationships, and thereby better foresee alterations in ecosystem structure and functioning under future climate conditions that are not necessarily seen in projections based on non-causal statistical relationships alone.

Environmental niche separation between native and non-native benthic invertebrate species: Case study of the northern Baltic Sea.

Knowledge and understanding of geographic distributions of species is crucial for many aspects in ecology, conservation, policy making and management. In order to reach such an understanding, it is important to know abiotic variables that impact and drive distributions of native and non-native species. We used an existing long-term macrobenthos database for species presence-absence information and biomass estimates at different environmental gradients in the northern Baltic Sea. Region specific abiotic variables (e.g. salinity, depth) were derived from previously constructed bathymetric and hydrodynamic models. Multidimensional ordination techniques were then applied to investigate potential niche space separation between all native and non-native invertebrates in the northern Baltic Sea. Such an approach allowed to obtain data rich and robust estimates of the current native and non-native species distributions and outline important abiotic parameters influencing the observed pattern. The results showed clear niche space separation between native and non-native species. Non-native species were situated in an environmental space characterized by reduced salinity, high temperatures, high proportion of soft seabed and decreased depth and wave exposure whereas native species displayed an opposite pattern. Different placement of native and non-native species along the studied environmental niche space is likely to be explained by the differences in their evolutionary history, human mediated activities and geological youth of the Baltic Sea. The results of this study can provide early warnings and effectively outline coastal areas in the northern Baltic Sea that are prone to further range expansion of non-native species as climate change is expected to significantly reduce salinity and increase temperature in wide coastal areas, both supporting the disappearance of native and appearance of non-native species.