Enhanced DNA repair through droplet formation and p53 oscillations.

Living organisms are constantly exposed to DNA damage, and optimal repair is therefore crucial. A characteristic hallmark of the response is the formation of sub-compartments around the site of damage, known as foci. Following multiple DNA breaks, the transcription factor p53 exhibits oscillations in its nuclear concentration, but how this dynamics can affect the repair remains unknown. Here, we formulate a theory for foci formation through droplet condensation and discover how oscillations in p53, with its specific periodicity and amplitude, optimize the repair process by preventing Ostwald ripening and distributing protein material in space and time. Based on the theory predictions, we reveal experimentally that the oscillatory dynamics of p53 does enhance the repair efficiency. These results connect the dynamical signaling of p53 with the microscopic repair process and create a new paradigm for the interplay of complex dynamics and phase transitions in biology.

Machine-learning vs. logistic regression for preoperative prediction of medical morbidity after fast-track hip and knee arthroplasty-a comparative study.

BACKGROUND: Machine-learning models may improve prediction of length of stay (LOS) and morbidity after surgery. However, few studies include fast-track programs, and most rely on administrative coding with limited follow-up and information on perioperative care. This study investigates potential benefits of a machine-learning model for prediction of postoperative morbidity in fast-track total hip (THA) and knee arthroplasty (TKA). METHODS: Cohort study in consecutive unselected primary THA/TKA between 2014-2017 from seven Danish centers with established fast-track protocols. Preoperative comorbidity and prescribed medication were recorded prospectively and information on length of stay and readmissions was obtained through the Danish National Patient Registry and medical records. We used a machine-learning model (Boosted Decision Trees) based on boosted decision trees with 33 preoperative variables for predicting "medical" morbidity leading to LOS > 4 days or 90-days readmissions and compared to a logistical regression model based on the same variables. We also evaluated two parsimonious models, using the ten most important variables in the full machine-learning and logistic regression models. Data collected between 2014-2016 (n:18,013) was used for model training and data from 2017 (n:3913) was used for testing. Model performances were analyzed using precision, area under receiver operating (AUROC) and precision recall curves (AUPRC), as well as the Mathews Correlation Coefficient. Variable importance was analyzed using Shapley Additive Explanations values. RESULTS: Using a threshold of 20% "risk-patients" (n:782), precision, AUROC and AUPRC were 13.6%, 76.3% and 15.5% vs. 12.4%, 74.7% and 15.6% for the machine-learning and logistic regression model, respectively. The parsimonious machine-learning model performed better than the full logistic regression model. Of the top ten variables, eight were shared between the machine-learning and logistic regression models, but with a considerable age-related variation in importance of specific types of medication. CONCLUSION: A machine-learning model using preoperative characteristics and prescriptions slightly improved identification of patients in high-risk of "medical" complications after fast-track THA and TKA compared to a logistic regression model. Such algorithms could help find a manageable population of patients who may benefit most from intensified perioperative care.

Four simple rules that are sufficient to generate the mammalian blastocyst.

Early mammalian development is both highly regulative and self-organizing. It involves the interplay of cell position, predetermined gene regulatory networks, and environmental interactions to generate the physical arrangement of the blastocyst with precise timing. However, this process occurs in the absence of maternal information and in the presence of transcriptional stochasticity. How does the preimplantation embryo ensure robust, reproducible development in this context? It utilizes a versatile toolbox that includes complex intracellular networks coupled to cell-cell communication, segregation by differential adhesion, and apoptosis. Here, we ask whether a minimal set of developmental rules based on this toolbox is sufficient for successful blastocyst development, and to what extent these rules can explain mutant and experimental phenotypes. We implemented experimentally reported mechanisms for polarity, cell-cell signaling, adhesion, and apoptosis as a set of developmental rules in an agent-based in silico model of physically interacting cells. We find that this model quantitatively reproduces specific mutant phenotypes and provides an explanation for the emergence of heterogeneity without requiring any initial transcriptional variation. It also suggests that a fixed time point for the cells' competence of fibroblast growth factor (FGF)/extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) sets an embryonic clock that enables certain scaling phenomena, a concept that we evaluate quantitatively by manipulating embryos in vitro. Based on these observations, we conclude that the minimal set of rules enables the embryo to experiment with stochastic gene expression and could provide the robustness necessary for the evolutionary diversification of the preimplantation gene regulatory network.

Impact of Zygosity on Bimodal Phenotype Distributions.

Allele number, or zygosity, is a clear determinant of gene expression in diploid cells. However, the relationship between the number of copies of a gene and its expression can be hard to anticipate, especially when the gene in question is embedded in a regulatory circuit that contains feedback. Here, we study this question making use of the natural genetic variability of human populations, which allows us to compare the expression profiles of a receptor protein in natural killer cells among donors infected with human cytomegalovirus with one or two copies of the allele. Crucially, the distribution of gene expression in many of the donors is bimodal, which indicates the presence of a positive feedback loop somewhere in the regulatory environment of the gene. Three separate gene-circuit models differing in the location of the positive feedback loop with respect to the gene can all reproduce the homozygous data. However, when the resulting fitted models are applied to the hemizygous donors, one model (the one with the positive feedback located at the level of gene transcription) is superior in describing the experimentally observed gene-expression profile. In that way, our work shows that zygosity can help us relate the structure and function of gene regulatory networks.

Excitable human dynamics driven by extrinsic events in massive communities.

Using empirical data from a social media site (Twitter) and on trading volumes of financial securities, we analyze the correlated human activity in massive social organizations. The activity, typically excited by real-world events and measured by the occurrence rate of international brand names and trading volumes, is characterized by intermittent fluctuations with bursts of high activity separated by quiescent periods. These fluctuations are broadly distributed with an inverse cubic tail and have long-range temporal correlations with a power spectrum. We describe the activity by a stochastic point process and derive the distribution of activity levels from the corresponding stochastic differential equation. The distribution and the corresponding power spectrum are fully consistent with the empirical observations.

Structure of a functional amyloid protein subunit computed using sequence variation.

Functional amyloid fibers, called curli, play a critical role in adhesion and invasion of many bacteria. Unlike pathological amyloids, curli structures are formed by polypeptide sequences whose amyloid structure has been selected for during evolution. This important distinction provides us with an opportunity to obtain structural insights from an unexpected source: the covariation of amino acids in sequences of different curli proteins. We used recently developed methods to extract amino acid contacts from a multiple sequence alignment of homologues of the curli subunit protein, CsgA. Together with an efficient force field, these contacts allow us to determine structural models of CsgA. We find that CsgA forms a ß-helical structure, where each turn corresponds to previously identified repeat sequences in CsgA. The proposed structure is validated by previously measured solid-state NMR, electron microscopy, and X-ray diffraction data and agrees with an earlier proposed model derived by complementary means.

The length distribution of frangible biofilaments.

A number of different proteins possess the ability to polymerize into filamentous structures. Certain classes of such assemblies can have key functional roles in the cell, such as providing the structural basis for the cytoskeleton in the case of actin and tubulin, while others are implicated in the development of many pathological conditions, including Alzheimer's and Parkinson's diseases. In general, the fragmentation of such structures changes the total number of filament ends, which act as growth sites, and hence is a key feature of the dynamics of filamentous growth phenomena. In this paper, we present an analytical study of the master equation of breakable filament assembly and derive closed-form expressions for the time evolution of the filament length distribution for both open and closed systems with infinite and finite monomer supply, respectively. We use this theoretical framework to analyse experimental data for length distributions of insulin amyloid fibrils and show that our theory allows insights into the microscopic mechanisms of biofilament assembly to be obtained beyond those available from the conventional analysis of filament mass only.

Dynamics of the DNA repair proteins WRN and BLM in the nucleoplasm and nucleoli.

We have investigated the mobility of two EGFP-tagged DNA repair proteins, WRN and BLM. In particular, we focused on the dynamics in two locations, the nucleoli and the nucleoplasm. We found that both WRN and BLM use a "DNA-scanning" mechanism, with rapid binding-unbinding to DNA resulting in effective diffusion. In the nucleoplasm WRN and BLM have effective diffusion coefficients of 1.62 and 1.34 µm(2)/s, respectively. Likewise, the dynamics in the nucleoli are also best described by effective diffusion, but with diffusion coefficients a factor of ten lower than in the nucleoplasm. From this large reduction in diffusion coefficient we were able to classify WRN and BLM as DNA damage scanners. In addition to WRN and BLM we also classified other DNA damage proteins and found they all fall into one of two categories. Either they are scanners, similar to WRN and BLM, with very low diffusion coefficients, suggesting a scanning mechanism, or they are almost freely diffusing, suggesting that they interact with DNA only after initiation of a DNA damage response.

Entrainment of noise-induced and limit cycle oscillators under weak noise.

Theoretical models that describe oscillations in biological systems are often either a limit cycle oscillator, where the deterministic nonlinear dynamics gives sustained periodic oscillations, or a noise-induced oscillator, where a fixed point is linearly stable with complex eigenvalues, and addition of noise gives oscillations around the fixed point with fluctuating amplitude. We investigate how each class of models behaves under the external periodic forcing, taking the well-studied van der Pol equation as an example. We find that when the forcing is additive, the noise-induced oscillator can show only one-to-one entrainment to the external frequency, in contrast to the limit cycle oscillator which is known to entrain to any ratio. When the external forcing is multiplicative, on the other hand, the noise-induced oscillator can show entrainment to a few ratios other than one-to-one, while the limit cycle oscillator shows entrain to any ratio. The noise blurs the entrainment in general, but clear entrainment regions for limit cycles can be identified as long as the noise is not too strong.

Coupled oscillator cooperativity as a control mechanism in chronobiology.

Control of dynamical processes is vital for maintaining correct cell regulation and cell-fate decisions. Numerous regulatory networks show oscillatory behavior; however, our knowledge of how one oscillator behaves when stimulated by two or more external oscillatory signals is still missing. We explore this problem by constructing a synthetic oscillatory system in yeast and stimulate it with two external oscillatory signals. Letting model verification and prediction operate in a tight interplay with experimental observations, we find that stimulation with two external signals expands the plateau of entrainment and reduces the fluctuations of oscillations. Furthermore, by adjusting the phase differences of external signals, one can control the amplitude of oscillations, which is understood through the signal delay of the unperturbed oscillatory network. With this we reveal a direct amplitude dependency of downstream gene transcription. Taken together, these results suggest a new path to control oscillatory systems by coupled oscillator cooperativity.

Population genetics in compressible flows.

We study competition between two biological species advected by a compressible velocity field. Individuals are treated as discrete Lagrangian particles that reproduce or die in a density-dependent fashion. In the absence of a velocity field and fitness advantage, number fluctuations lead to a coarsening dynamics typical of the stochastic Fisher equation. We investigate three examples of compressible advecting fields: a shell model of turbulence, a sinusoidal velocity field and a linear velocity sink. In all cases, advection leads to a striking drop in the fixation time, as well as a large reduction in the global carrying capacity. We find localization on convergence zones, and very rapid extinction compared to well-mixed populations. For a linear velocity sink, one finds a bimodal distribution of fixation times. The long-lived states in this case are demixed configurations with a single interface, whose location depends on the fitness advantage.

Switching between oscillations and homeostasis in competing negative and positive feedback motifs.

We analyze a class of network motifs in which a short, two-node positive feedback motif is inserted in a three-node negative feedback loop. We demonstrate that such networks can undergo a bifurcation to a state where a stable fixed point and a stable limit cycle coexist. At the bifurcation point the period of the oscillations diverges. Further, intrinsic noise can make the system switch between oscillatory state and the stationary state spontaneously. We find that this switching also occurs in previous models of circadian clocks that use this combination of positive and negative feedbacks. Our results suggest that real-life circadian systems may need specific regulation to prevent or minimize such switching events.

Temperature Controls Onset and Period of NF-κB Oscillations and can Lead to Chaotic Dynamics.

The transcription factor NF-κB plays a vital role in the control of the immune system, and following stimulation with TNF-α its nuclear concentration shows oscillatory behaviour. How environmental factors, in particular temperature, can control the oscillations and thereby affect gene stimulation is still remains to be resolved question. In this work, we reveal that the period of the oscillations decreases with increasing temperature. We investigate this using a mathematical model, and by applying results from statistical physics, we introduce temperature dependency to all rates, resulting in a remarkable correspondence between model and experiments. Our model predicts how temperature affects downstream protein production and find a crossover, where high affinity genes upregulates at high temperatures. Finally, we show how or that oscillatory temperatures can entrain NF-κB oscillations and lead to chaotic dynamics presenting a simple path to chaotic conditions in cellular biology.

Biophysical Modeling of Dopaminergic Denervation Landscapes in the Striatum Reveals New Therapeutic Strategy.

Parkinson's disease (PD) results from a loss of dopaminergic neurons. What triggers the break-down of neuronal signaling, and how this might be compensated, is not understood. The age of onset, progression and symptoms vary between patients, and our understanding of the clinical variability remains incomplete. In this study, we investigate this, by characterizing the dopaminergic landscape in healthy and denervated striatum, using biophysical modeling. Based on currently proposed mechanisms, we model three distinct denervation patterns, and show how this affect the dopaminergic network. Depending on the denervation pattern, we show how local and global differences arise in the activity of striatal neurons. Finally, we use the mathematical formalism to suggest a cellular strategy for maintaining normal dopamine (DA) signaling following neuronal denervation. This strategy is characterized by dual enhancement of both the release and uptake capacity of DA in the remaining neurons. Overall, our results derive a new conceptual framework for the impaired dopaminergic signaling related to PD and offers testable predictions for future research directions.

Spatial heterogeneity affects predictions from early-curve fitting of pandemic outbreaks: a case study using population data from Denmark.

The modelling of pandemics has become a critical aspect in modern society. Even though artificial intelligence can help the forecast, the implementation of ordinary differential equations which estimate the time development in the number of susceptible, (exposed), infected and recovered (SIR/SEIR) individuals is still important in order to understand the stage of the pandemic. These models are based on simplified assumptions which constitute approximations, but to what extent this are erroneous is not understood since many factors can affect the development. In this paper, we introduce an agent-based model including spatial clustering and heterogeneities in connectivity and infection strength. Based on Danish population data, we estimate how this impacts the early prediction of a pandemic and compare this to the long-term development. Our results show that early phase SEIR model predictions overestimate the peak number of infected and the equilibrium level by at least a factor of two. These results are robust to variations of parameters influencing connection distances and independent of the distribution of infection rates.

Spatiotemporal model of cellular mechanotransduction via Rho and YAP.

How cells sense and respond to mechanical stimuli remains an open question. Recent advances have identified the translocation of Yes-associated protein (YAP) between nucleus and cytoplasm as a central mechanism for sensing mechanical forces and regulating mechanotransduction. We formulate a spatiotemporal model of the mechanotransduction signalling pathway that includes coupling of YAP with the cell force-generation machinery through the Rho family of GTPases. Considering the active and inactive forms of a single Rho protein (GTP/GDP-bound) and of YAP (non-phosphorylated/phosphorylated), we study the cross-talk between cell polarization due to active Rho and YAP activation through its nuclear localization. For fixed mechanical stimuli, our model predicts stationary nuclear-to-cytoplasmic YAP ratios consistent with experimental data at varying adhesive cell area. We further predict damped and even sustained oscillations in the YAP nuclear-to-cytoplasmic ratio by accounting for recently reported positive and negative YAP-Rho feedback. Extending the framework to time-varying mechanical stimuli that simulate cyclic stretching and compression, we show that the YAP nuclear-to-cytoplasmic ratio's time dependence follows that of the cyclic mechanical stimulus. The model presents one of the first frameworks for understanding spatiotemporal YAP mechanotransduction, providing several predictions of possible YAP localization dynamics, and suggesting new directions for experimental and theoretical studies.

A tale of two rhythms: Locked clocks and chaos in biology.

The fundamental mechanisms that control and regulate biological organisms exhibit a surprising level of complexity. Oscillators are perhaps the simplest motifs that produce time-varying dynamics and are ubiquitous in biological systems. It is also known that such biological oscillators interact with each other-for instance, circadian oscillators affect the cell cycle, and somitogenesis clock proteins in adjacent cells affect each other in developing embryos. Therefore, it is vital to understand the effects that can emerge from non-linear interaction between oscillations. Here, we show how oscillations typically arise in biology and take the reader on a tour through the great variety in dynamics that can emerge even from a single pair of coupled oscillators. We explain how chaotic dynamics can emerge and outline the methods of detecting this in experimental time traces. Finally, we discuss the potential role of such complex dynamical features in biological systems.

A Wnt oscillator model for somitogenesis.

We propose a model for the segmentation clock in vertebrate somitogenesis, based on the Wnt signaling pathway. The core of the model is a negative feedback loop centered around the Axin2 protein. Axin2 is activated by beta-catenin, which in turn is degraded by a complex of GSK3beta and Axin2. The model produces oscillatory states of the involved constituents with typical time periods of a few hours (ultradian oscillations). The oscillations are robust to changes in parameter values and are often spiky, where low concentration values of beta-catenin are interrupted by sharp peaks. Necessary for the oscillations is the saturated degradation of Axin2. Somite formation in chick and mouse embryos is controlled by a spatial Wnt gradient which we introduce in the model through a time-dependent decrease in Wnt3a ligand level. We find that the oscillations disappear as the ligand concentration decreases, in agreement with observations on embryos.

Chaos in disease outbreaks among prey.

Epidemics are highly unpredictable, and so are real-world population dynamics. In this paper, we examine a dynamical model of an ecosystem with one predator and two prey species of which one carries a disease. We find that the system behaves chaotically for a wide range of parameters. Using the allometric mass scaling of animal and disease lifetimes, we predict chaos if (a) the disease is infectious enough to persist, and (b) it affects the larger prey species. This provides another example of chaos in a Lotka-Volterra system and a possible explanation for the apparent randomness of epizootic outbreaks.

Modeling proteasome dynamics in Parkinson's disease.

In Parkinson's disease (PD), there is evidence that alpha-synuclein (alphaSN) aggregation is coupled to dysfunctional or overburdened protein quality control systems, in particular the ubiquitin-proteasome system. Here, we develop a simple dynamical model for the on-going conflict between alphaSN aggregation and the maintenance of a functional proteasome in the healthy cell, based on the premise that proteasomal activity can be titrated out by mature alphaSN fibrils and their protofilament precursors. In the presence of excess proteasomes the cell easily maintains homeostasis. However, when the ratio between the available proteasome and the alphaSN protofilaments is reduced below a threshold level, we predict a collapse of homeostasis and onset of oscillations in the proteasome concentration. Depleted proteasome opens for accumulation of oligomers. Our analysis suggests that the onset of PD is associated with a proteasome population that becomes occupied in periodic degradation of aggregates. This behavior is found to be the general state of a proteasome/chaperone system under pressure, and suggests new interpretations of other diseases where protein aggregation could stress elements of the protein quality control system.