Cost-effectiveness of population-wide genomic screening for Lynch Syndrome and Polygenic Risk Scores to inform Colorectal Cancer screening.

INTRODUCTION: Genomic screening to identify individuals with Lynch Syndrome (LS) and those with a high polygenic risk score (PRS) promises to personalize Colorectal Cancer (CRC) screening. Understanding its clinical and economic impact is needed to inform screening guidelines and reimbursement policies. METHODS: We developed a Markov model to simulate individuals over a lifetime. We compared LS+PRS genomic screening to standard of care (SOC) for a cohort of US adults at age 30. The Markov model included health states of "no CRC", CRC stages (A-D) and death. We estimated incidence, mortality, and discounted economic outcomes of the population under different interventions. RESULTS: Screening 1000 individuals for LS+PRS resulted in 1.36 fewer CRC cases and 0.65 fewer deaths compared to SOC. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was $124,415 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY); screening had a 69% probability of being cost-effective using a willingness to pay threshold of $150,000/QALY. Setting the PRS threshold at the 90th percentile of the LS+PRS screening program to define individuals at high risk was most likely to be cost-effective compared to 95th, 85th, and 80th percentiles. CONCLUSION: Population-level LS+PRS screening is marginally cost-effective and a threshold of 90th percentile is more likely to be cost-effective than other thresholds.

Population Genomic Screening for Three Common Hereditary Conditions : A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The cost-effectiveness of screening the U.S. population for Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Tier 1 genomic conditions is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of simultaneous genomic screening for Lynch syndrome (LS), hereditary breast and ovarian cancer syndrome (HBOC), and familial hypercholesterolemia (FH). DESIGN: Decision analytic Markov model. DATA SOURCES: Published literature. TARGET POPULATION: Separate age-based cohorts (ages 20 to 60 years at time of screening) of racially and ethnically representative U.S. adults. TIME HORIZON: Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE: U.S. health care payer. INTERVENTION: Population genomic screening using clinical sequencing with a restricted panel of high-evidence genes, cascade testing of first-degree relatives, and recommended preventive interventions for identified probands. OUTCOME MEASURES: Incident breast, ovarian, and colorectal cancer cases; incident cardiovascular events; quality-adjusted survival; and costs. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: Screening 100 000 unselected 30-year-olds resulted in 101 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 77 to 127) fewer overall cancer cases and 15 (95% UI, 4 to 28) fewer cardiovascular events and an increase of 495 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (95% UI, 401 to 757) at an incremental cost of $33.9 million (95% UI, $27.0 million to $41.1 million). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $68 600 per QALY gained (95% UI, $41 800 to $88 900). RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: Screening 30-, 40-, and 50-year-old cohorts was cost-effective in 99%, 88%, and 19% of probabilistic simulations, respectively, at a $100 000-per-QALY threshold. The test costs at which screening 30-, 40-, and 50-year-olds reached the $100 000-per-QALY threshold were $413, $290, and $166, respectively. Variant prevalence and adherence to preventive interventions were also highly influential parameters. LIMITATIONS: Population averages for model inputs, which were derived predominantly from European populations, vary across ancestries and health care environments. CONCLUSION: Population genomic screening with a restricted panel of high-evidence genes associated with 3 CDC Tier 1 conditions is likely to be cost-effective in U.S. adults younger than 40 years if the testing cost is relatively low and probands have access to preventive interventions. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Human Genome Research Institute.

Implementation of pharmacogenomic clinical decision support for health systems: a cost-utility analysis.

We constructed a cost-effectiveness model to assess the clinical and economic value of a CDS alert program that provides pharmacogenomic (PGx) testing results, compared to no alert program in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and atrial fibrillation (AF), from a health system perspective. We defaulted that 20% of 500,000 health-system members between the ages of 55 and 65 received PGx testing for CYP2C19 (ACS-clopidogrel) and CYP2C9, CYP4F2 and VKORC1 (AF-warfarin) annually. Clinical events, costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were calculated over 20 years with an annual discount rate of 3%. In total, 3169 alerts would be fired. The CDS alert program would help avoid 16 major clinical events and 6 deaths for ACS; and 2 clinical events and 0.9 deaths for AF. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $39,477/QALY. A PGx-CDS alert program was cost-effective, under a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/QALY gained, compared to no alert program.

Cost-effectiveness of population-wide genomic screening for Lynch syndrome in the United States.

PURPOSE: Genomic screening for Lynch syndrome (LS) could prevent colorectal cancer (CRC) by identifying high-risk patients and instituting intensive CRC screening. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of a population-wide LS genomic screening vs family history-based screening alone in an unselected US population. METHODS: We developed a decision-analytic Markov model including health states for precancer, stage-specific CRC, and death and assumed an inexpensive test cost of $200. We conducted sensitivity and threshold analyses to evaluate model uncertainty. RESULTS: Screening unselected 30-year-olds for LS variants resulted in 48 (95% credible range [CR] = 35-63) fewer overall CRC cases per 100,000 screened individuals, leading to 187 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs; 95% CR = 123-260) gained at an incremental cost of $24.6 million (95% CR = $20.3 million-$29.1 million). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $132,200, with an 8% and 71% probability of being cost-effective at $100,000 and $150,000 per QALY willingness-to-pay thresholds, respectively. CONCLUSION: Population LS screening may be cost-effective in younger patient populations under a $150,000 willingness-to-pay per QALY threshold and with a relatively inexpensive test cost. Further reductions in testing costs and/or the inclusion of LS testing within a broader multiplex screening panel are needed for screening to become highly cost-effective.

Utilization of low- and high-value health care by individuals with and without cognitive impairment.

OBJECTIVES: Cognitive impairment and dementia have rising prevalence and impact the health care utilization and lives of older adults. Receipt of low-value (LV) care and underutilization of high-value (HV) care by individuals with these cognitive disorders may have negative consequences for patient health, health system efficiency, and societal welfare. Evidence on health care value among cognitively impaired individuals is limited; we thus ascertained receipt of LV and HV health care in older adults with normal cognition, cognitive impairment without dementia (CIND), and dementia. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study of Health and Retirement Study data linked to Medicare claims (1996-2018). METHODS: We examined the association between cognitive decline and the receipt of 5 LV and 7 HV services vs individuals with no change in cognition. RESULTS: Receipt of LV care ranged from 4% to 13% regardless of cognitive status. Cognitive decline (from unimpaired to either CIND or dementia) was associated with decreased probability of receipt of 1 LV service (colorectal cancer screening at 85 years and older [5-percentage-point reduction; P = .047]) and 3 HV services (glucose-lowering drugs [7-percentage-point reduction; P = .029], statins [32-percentage-point reduction; P = .045], and antiresorptive therapy [61-percentage-point reduction; P = .019]). CONCLUSIONS: LV service receipt is wasteful and may be harmful, but it was not consistently associated with cognitive status. Lack of HV care for those with cognitive impairment could be a missed opportunity to improve well-being or reduce preventable adverse events. Our results suggest opportunities for improving the quality of care received by all older adults, including those with cognitive impairment.

Combining Asian-European Genome-Wide Association Studies of Colorectal Cancer Improves Risk Prediction Across Race and Ethnicity.

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have great potential to guide precision colorectal cancer (CRC) prevention by identifying those at higher risk to undertake targeted screening. However, current PRS using European ancestry data have sub-optimal performance in non-European ancestry populations, limiting their utility among these populations. Towards addressing this deficiency, we expanded PRS development for CRC by incorporating Asian ancestry data (21,731 cases; 47,444 controls) into European ancestry training datasets (78,473 cases; 107,143 controls). The AUC estimates (95% CI) of PRS were 0.63(0.62-0.64), 0.59(0.57-0.61), 0.62(0.60-0.63), and 0.65(0.63-0.66) in independent datasets including 1,681-3,651 cases and 8,696-115,105 controls of Asian, Black/African American, Latinx/Hispanic, and non-Hispanic White, respectively. They were significantly better than the European-centric PRS in all four major US racial and ethnic groups (p-values<0.05). Further inclusion of non-European ancestry populations, especially Black/African American and Latinx/Hispanic, is needed to improve the risk prediction and enhance equity in applying PRS in clinical practice.

Combining Asian and European genome-wide association studies of colorectal cancer improves risk prediction across racial and ethnic populations.

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have great potential to guide precision colorectal cancer (CRC) prevention by identifying those at higher risk to undertake targeted screening. However, current PRS using European ancestry data have sub-optimal performance in non-European ancestry populations, limiting their utility among these populations. Towards addressing this deficiency, we expand PRS development for CRC by incorporating Asian ancestry data (21,731 cases; 47,444 controls) into European ancestry training datasets (78,473 cases; 107,143 controls). The AUC estimates (95% CI) of PRS are 0.63(0.62-0.64), 0.59(0.57-0.61), 0.62(0.60-0.63), and 0.65(0.63-0.66) in independent datasets including 1681-3651 cases and 8696-115,105 controls of Asian, Black/African American, Latinx/Hispanic, and non-Hispanic White, respectively. They are significantly better than the European-centric PRS in all four major US racial and ethnic groups (p-values < 0.05). Further inclusion of non-European ancestry populations, especially Black/African American and Latinx/Hispanic, is needed to improve the risk prediction and enhance equity in applying PRS in clinical practice.

Health care resource utilization and costs associated with atrial fibrillation and rural-urban disparities.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) imposes substantial health care and economic burden on health care systems and patients. Previous studies failed to examine health care resource utilization (HCRU) and costs among patients with incident AF and potential disparity with regard to geographic location. OBJECTIVES: To examine HCRU and costs among patients with incident AF compared with patients without AF and examine whether a geographic disparity exists. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study. We selected patients with AF and patients without AF from IBM/Watson MarketScan Research Databases 2014-2019. HCRU and costs were collected 12 months following an AF index date. We used 2-part models with bootstrapping to obtain the marginal estimates and CIs. Rural status was identified based on Metropolitan Statistical Area. We adjusted for age, sex, plan type, US region, and comorbidities. RESULTS: Among 156,732 patients with AF and 3,398,490 patients without AF, patients with AF had 9.04 (95% CI = 8.96-9.12) more outpatient visits, 0.82 (95% CI = 0.81-0.83) more emergency department (ED) visits, 0.33 (95% CI = 0.33-0.34) more inpatient admission, and $15,095 (95% CI = 14,871-15,324) higher total costs, compared with patients without AF. Among patients with AF, rural patients had 1.99 fewer (95% CI = -2.26 to -1.71) outpatient visits and 0.05 (95% CI = 0.02-0.08) more ED visits than urban patients. Overall, rural patients with AF had decreased total costs compared with urban patients (mean = $751; 95% CI = -1,227 to -228). CONCLUSIONS: Incident AF was associated with substantial burden of health care resources and an economic burden, and the burden was not equally distributed across patients in urban vs rural settings. DISCLOSURES: Dr Hansen reports grants from the National Science Foundation during the conduct of the study.

Ross Procedure in Neonate and Infant Populations: A Meta-Analysis Review.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to perform a meta-analysis of early and late outcomes of the Ross/Ross-Konno procedures in neonates/infants. METHODS: A meta-analysis was performed in accordance with PRISMA guidelines. We used Ovid versions of MEDLINE/PubMed for relevant studies and included those that reported Ross/Ross-Konno operations in neonates/infants and at least one of the predetermined clinical outcomes. I2 and double arcsine methods assessed the heterogeneity between pooled estimates. We used a random-effect model to account for heterogeneity with MetaXL. We calculated point estimates of a pooled estimates along with its 95% CI. RESULTS: 587 neonate/infant patients were included with median age of 87.5 days old. The follow-up range was five days to 23 years. Early mortality reported in 25 studies with pooled estimates of 18.3% (95% CI: 13.6%-23.5%). Estimates ranged from 0% to 50% with relatively substantial heterogeneity (P = .01, I2 = 48.6%). Late mortality reported in 22 studies with pooled incidence of 9.7% (95% CI: 5.9%-14.3%). Estimates ranged from 0% to 53% with relatively substantial heterogeneity (P = .01, I2 = 46.1%). Autograft reintervention reported in 18 studies with pooled estimate of 19.2% (95% CI: 7.3%-34.5%). Estimates ranged from 0% to 81.8% with high heterogeneity (P < .001, I2 = 90.5%). Right ventricle-to-pulmonary artery conduit reintervention reported in 16 studies with pooled estimates of 32.0% (95% CI: 20.9%-44.12%). Estimates ranged from 0% to 92.3% with high heterogeneity (P < .001, I2 = 75.9%). CONCLUSIONS: The data suggest that the Ross/Ross-Konno procedure in neonates/infants still carries significant risk of early/late mortality and autograft/conduit reintervention. The high variability of results among centers confirms the need for surgical expertise and good patient selection. Prospective multicenter studies are warranted to investigate the rate of autograft reintervention and the impact on long-term survival in this specific population.

Pharmacist-led interventions to improve medication adherence in older adults: A meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: As pharmacists work to ensure reimbursement for chronic disease management services on the national level, evidence of their impact on important health metrics, such as medication adherence, is needed. However, summative evidence is lacking on the effectiveness of pharmacists to improve medication adherence in older adults. The objective was to assess the effectiveness of pharmacist-led interventions on medication adherence in older adults (65+ years). DESIGN/SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: Using a systematic review and meta-analytic approach, a comprehensive search of publications in PubMed, Scopus, CINAHL, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Google Scholar was conducted through April 2, 2020 for randomized clinical trials of pharmacist-led interventions to improve medication adherence in older adults. A standardized mean difference effect size (Cohen's d) was calculated for medication adherence in each study. Study effect sizes were pooled using a random-effects model, with effect sizes weighted by inverse of its total variance. MEASUREMENTS: Medication adherence using any method of measurement. RESULTS: Among 40 unique randomized trials of pharmacist-led interventions with data from 8822 unique patients (mean age, range: 65-85 years), the mean effect size was 0.57 (k = 40; 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 0.38-0.76). When two outlier studies were excluded from the analysis, the mean effect size reduced to 0.41 (k = 38; 95% CI: 0.27-0.54). A sensitivity analysis of medication adherence outcome by time point resulted in a mean effect size of 0.64 at 3 months (k = 12; 95% CI: 0.32-0.97), 0.30 at 6 months (k = 13; 95% CI: 0.11-0.48), 0.22 at 12 months (k = 12; 95% CI: 0.08-0.37), and 0.36 for outcome time points beyond 12 months (k = 5; 95% CI: 0.02-0.70). CONCLUSION: This meta-analysis found a significant improvement in medication adherence among older adults receiving pharmacist-led interventions. Implementation of pharmacist-led interventions supported by Medicare reimbursement could ensure older adults' access to effective medication adherence support.

Estimating Long-Term Health Utility Scores and Expenditures for Cardiovascular Disease From the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey.

BACKGROUND: Long-term health utility scores and costs used in cost-effectiveness analyses of cardiovascular disease prevention and management can be inconsistent, outdated, or invalid for the diverse population of the United States. Our aim was to develop a user friendly, standardized, publicly available code and catalog to derive more valid long-term values for health utility and expenditures following cardiovascular disease events. METHODS: Individual-level Short Form-12 version 2 health-related quality of life and expenditure data were obtained from the pooled 2011 to 2016 Medical Expenditure Panel Surveys. We developed code using the R programming language to estimate preference-weighted Short Form-6D utility scores from the Short Form-12 for quality-adjusted life year calculations and predict annual health care expenditures. Result predictors included cardiovascular disease diagnosis (myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, heart failure, cardiac dysrhythmias, angina pectoris, and peripheral artery disease), sociodemographic factors, and comorbidity variables. RESULTS: The cardiovascular disease diagnoses with the lowest utility scores were heart failure (0.635 [95% CI, 0.615-0.655]), angina pectoris (0.649 [95% CI, 0.630-0.667]), and ischemic stroke (0.649 [95% CI, 0.635-0.663]). The highest annual expenditures were for heart failure ($20 764 [95% CI, $17 500-$24 027]), angina pectoris ($18 428 [95% CI, $16 102-$20 754]), and ischemic stroke ($16 925 [95% CI, $15 672-$20 616]). CONCLUSIONS: The developed code and catalog may improve the quality and comparability of cost-effectiveness analyses by providing standardized methods for extracting long-term health utility scores and expenditures from Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data, which are more current and representative of the US population than previous sources.

Estimated Health Care Utilization and Expenditures in Individuals With Heart Failure From the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) constitutes a growing burden for public health and the US health care system. While the prevalence of HF is increasing, differences in health care utilization and expenditures within various sociodemographic groups remain poorly defined. METHODS: We used the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey to assess annual health care utilization and expenditures from 2012 to 2017. Health care utilization was based on the annual frequency of various health care encounters. Annual total and out-of-pocket expenditures were evaluated for hospital inpatient stays, emergency room visits, outpatient visits, office-based medical provider visits, prescribed medicines, dental visits, home health aid visits, and other medical expenses. We performed univariable and multivariable regression analysis based on patient characteristics including sociodemographic and comorbidity variables. RESULTS: Our results showed that total health care expenditures among patients with HF were $21 177 (95% CI, $18 819-$24 736) per year as compared with $5652 (95% CI, $5469-$5837) in those without HF (P<0.001). Total expenditures within the population with HF were primarily being driven by expenditures associated with inpatient hospitalizations. Increasing number of comorbid conditions was associated with significant increases in total health care expenditures. Older age, female sex, earlier study years, number of comorbidities, higher level of education, and increasing family income brackets independently raised out-of-pocket expenditures. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings of increased health care utilization and expenditures based on sex, age, increasing number of comorbidities, wealthier income status, and increased education attainment level may be used for efforts aimed at better distributing health care resources to improve health outcomes in HF.