Simple and statistically sound recommendations for analysing physical theories.

Physical theories that depend on many parameters or are tested against data from many different experiments pose unique challenges to statistical inference. Many models in particle physics, astrophysics and cosmology fall into one or both of these categories. These issues are often sidestepped with statistically unsound ad hoc methods, involving intersection of parameter intervals estimated by multiple experiments, and random or grid sampling of model parameters. Whilst these methods are easy to apply, they exhibit pathologies even in low-dimensional parameter spaces, and quickly become problematic to use and interpret in higher dimensions. In this article we give clear guidance for going beyond these procedures, suggesting where possible simple methods for performing statistically sound inference, and recommendations of readily-available software tools and standards that can assist in doing so. Our aim is to provide any physicists lacking comprehensive statistical training with recommendations for reaching correct scientific conclusions, with only a modest increase in analysis burden. Our examples can be reproduced with the code publicly available at Zenodo.

Directly Detecting Sub-GeV Dark Matter with Electrons from Nuclear Scattering.

Dark matter (DM) particles with mass in the sub-GeV range are an attractive alternative to heavier weakly interacting massive particles, but direct detection of such light particles is challenging. If, however, DM-nucleus scattering leads to ionization of the recoiling atom, the resulting electron may be detected even if the nuclear recoil is unobservable. We demonstrate that including this effect significantly enhances direct detection sensitivity to sub-GeV DM. Existing experiments set world-leading limits, and future experiments may probe the cross sections relevant for thermal freeze-out.

Strong Constraints on Self-Interacting Dark Matter with Light Mediators.

Coupling dark matter to light new particles is an attractive way to combine thermal production with strong velocity-dependent self-interactions. Here we point out that in such models the dark matter annihilation rate is generically enhanced by the Sommerfeld effect, and we derive the resulting constraints from the cosmic microwave background and other indirect detection probes. For the frequently studied case of s-wave annihilation, these constraints exclude the entire parameter space where the self-interactions are large enough to address the small-scale problems of structure formation.

A facility to search for hidden particles at the CERN SPS: the SHiP physics case.

This paper describes the physics case for a new fixed target facility at CERN SPS. The SHiP (search for hidden particles) experiment is intended to hunt for new physics in the largely unexplored domain of very weakly interacting particles with masses below the Fermi scale, inaccessible to the LHC experiments, and to study tau neutrino physics. The same proton beam setup can be used later to look for decays of tau-leptons with lepton flavour number non-conservation, [Formula: see text] and to search for weakly-interacting sub-GeV dark matter candidates. We discuss the evidence for physics beyond the standard model and describe interactions between new particles and four different portals-scalars, vectors, fermions or axion-like particles. We discuss motivations for different models, manifesting themselves via these interactions, and how they can be probed with the SHiP experiment and present several case studies. The prospects to search for relatively light SUSY and composite particles at SHiP are also discussed. We demonstrate that the SHiP experiment has a unique potential to discover new physics and can directly probe a number of solutions of beyond the standard model puzzles, such as neutrino masses, baryon asymmetry of the Universe, dark matter, and inflation.

Global analyses of Higgs portal singlet dark matter models using GAMBIT.

We present global analyses of effective Higgs portal dark matter models in the frequentist and Bayesian statistical frameworks. Complementing earlier studies of the scalar Higgs portal, we use GAMBIT to determine the preferred mass and coupling ranges for models with vector, Majorana and Dirac fermion dark matter. We also assess the relative plausibility of all four models using Bayesian model comparison. Our analysis includes up-to-date likelihood functions for the dark matter relic density, invisible Higgs decays, and direct and indirect searches for weakly-interacting dark matter including the latest XENON1T data. We also account for important uncertainties arising from the local density and velocity distribution of dark matter, nuclear matrix elements relevant to direct detection, and Standard Model masses and couplings. In all Higgs portal models, we find parameter regions that can explain all of dark matter and give a good fit to all data. The case of vector dark matter requires the most tuning and is therefore slightly disfavoured from a Bayesian point of view. In the case of fermionic dark matter, we find a strong preference for including a CP-violating phase that allows suppression of constraints from direct detection experiments, with odds in favour of CP violation of the order of 100:1. Finally, we present DDCalc 2.0.0, a tool for calculating direct detection observables and likelihoods for arbitrary non-relativistic effective operators.

Impact of vacuum stability, perturbativity and XENON1T on global fits of Z 2 and Z 3 scalar singlet dark matter.

Scalar singlet dark matter is one of the simplest and most predictive realisations of the WIMP (weakly-interacting massive particle) idea. Although the model is constrained from all directions by the latest experimental data, it still has viable regions of parameter space. Another compelling aspect of scalar singlets is their ability to stabilise the electroweak vacuum. Indeed, models of scalar dark matter are not low-energy effective theories, but can be valid all the way to the Planck scale. Using the GAMBIT framework, we present the first global fit to include both the low-energy experimental constraints and the theoretical constraints from UV physics, considering models with a scalar singlet charged under either a Z 2 or a Z 3 symmetry. We show that if the model is to satisfy all experimental constraints, completely stabilise the electroweak vacuum up to high scales, and also remain perturbative to those scales, one is driven to a relatively small region of parameter space. This region has a Higgs-portal coupling slightly less than 1, a dark matter mass of 1-2 TeV and a spin-independent nuclear scattering cross-section around 10 - 45 cm 2 .

Status of the scalar singlet dark matter model.

One of the simplest viable models for dark matter is an additional neutral scalar, stabilised by a Z 2 symmetry. Using the GAMBIT package and combining results from four independent samplers, we present Bayesian and frequentist global fits of this model. We vary the singlet mass and coupling along with 13 nuisance parameters, including nuclear uncertainties relevant for direct detection, the local dark matter density, and selected quark masses and couplings. We include the dark matter relic density measured by Planck, direct searches with LUX, PandaX, SuperCDMS and XENON100, limits on invisible Higgs decays from the Large Hadron Collider, searches for high-energy neutrinos from dark matter annihilation in the Sun with IceCube, and searches for gamma rays from annihilation in dwarf galaxies with the Fermi-LAT. Viable solutions remain at couplings of order unity, for singlet masses between the Higgs mass and about 300 GeV, and at masses above ∼ 1 TeV. Only in the latter case can the scalar singlet constitute all of dark matter. Frequentist analysis shows that the low-mass resonance region, where the singlet is about half the mass of the Higgs, can also account for all of dark matter, and remains viable. However, Bayesian considerations show this region to be rather fine-tuned.