Solution to Detect, Classify, and Report Illicit Online Marketing and Sales of Controlled Substances via Twitter: Using Machine Learning and Web Forensics to Combat Digital Opioid Access.

BACKGROUND: On December 6 and 7, 2017, the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) hosted its first Code-a-Thon event aimed at leveraging technology and data-driven solutions to help combat the opioid epidemic. The authors­an interdisciplinary team from academia, the private sector, and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention­participated in the Code-a-Thon as part of the prevention track. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop and deploy a methodology using machine learning to accurately detect the marketing and sale of opioids by illicit online sellers via Twitter as part of participation at the HHS Opioid Code-a-Thon event. METHODS: Tweets were collected from the Twitter public application programming interface stream filtered for common prescription opioid keywords in conjunction with participation in the Code-a-Thon from November 15, 2017 to December 5, 2017. An unsupervised machine learning­based approach was developed and used during the Code-a-Thon competition (24 hours) to obtain a summary of the content of the tweets to isolate those clusters associated with illegal online marketing and sale using a biterm topic model (BTM). After isolating relevant tweets, hyperlinks associated with these tweets were reviewed to assess the characteristics of illegal online sellers. RESULTS: We collected and analyzed 213,041 tweets over the course of the Code-a-Thon containing keywords codeine, percocet, vicodin, oxycontin, oxycodone, fentanyl, and hydrocodone. Using BTM, 0.32% (692/213,041) tweets were identified as being associated with illegal online marketing and sale of prescription opioids. After removing duplicates and dead links, we identified 34 unique "live" tweets, with 44% (15/34) directing consumers to illicit online pharmacies, 32% (11/34) linked to individual drug sellers, and 21% (7/34) used by marketing affiliates. In addition to offering the "no prescription" sale of opioids, many of these vendors also sold other controlled substances and illicit drugs. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study are in line with prior studies that have identified social media platforms, including Twitter, as a potential conduit for supply and sale of illicit opioids. To translate these results into action, authors also developed a prototype wireframe for the purposes of detecting, classifying, and reporting illicit online pharmacy tweets selling controlled substances illegally to the US Food and Drug Administration and the US Drug Enforcement Agency. Further development of solutions based on these methods has the potential to proactively alert regulators and law enforcement agencies of illegal opioid sales, while also making the online environment safer for the public.

Twitter-Based Detection of Illegal Online Sale of Prescription Opioid.

OBJECTIVES: To deploy a methodology accurately identifying tweets marketing the illegal online sale of controlled substances. METHODS: We first collected tweets from the Twitter public application program interface stream filtered for prescription opioid keywords. We then used unsupervised machine learning (specifically, topic modeling) to identify topics associated with illegal online marketing and sales. Finally, we conducted Web forensic analyses to characterize different types of online vendors. We analyzed 619 937 tweets containing the keywords codeine, Percocet, fentanyl, Vicodin, Oxycontin, oxycodone, and hydrocodone over a 5-month period from June to November 2015. RESULTS: A total of 1778 tweets (< 1%) were identified as marketing the sale of controlled substances online; 90% had imbedded hyperlinks, but only 46 were "live" at the time of the evaluation. Seven distinct URLs linked to Web sites marketing or illegally selling controlled substances online. CONCLUSIONS: Our methodology can identify illegal online sale of prescription opioids from large volumes of tweets. Our results indicate that controlled substances are trafficked online via different strategies and vendors. Public Health Implications. Our methodology can be used to identify illegal online sellers in criminal violation of the Ryan Haight Online Pharmacy Consumer Protection Act.

Detection of illicit online sales of fentanyls via Twitter.

A counterfeit fentanyl crisis is currently underway in the United States.  Counterfeit versions of commonly abused prescription drugs laced with fentanyl are being manufactured, distributed, and sold globally, leading to an increase in overdose and death in countries like the United States and Canada.  Despite concerns from the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency regarding covert and overt sale of fentanyls online, no study has examined the role of the Internet and social media on fentanyl illegal marketing and direct-to-consumer access.  In response, this study collected and analyzed five months of Twitter data (from June-November 2015) filtered for the keyword "fentanyl" using Amazon Web Services.  We then analyzed 28,711 fentanyl-related tweets using text filtering and a machine learning approach called a Biterm Topic Model (BTM) to detect underlying latent patterns or "topics" present in the corpus of tweets.  Using this approach we detected a subset of 771 tweets marketing the sale of fentanyls online and then filtered this down to nine unique tweets containing hyperlinks to external websites.  Six hyperlinks were associated with online fentanyl classified ads, 2 with illicit online pharmacies, and 1 could not be classified due to traffic redirection.  Importantly, the one illicit online pharmacy detected was still accessible and offered the sale of fentanyls and other controlled substances direct-to-consumers with no prescription required at the time of publication of this study.   Overall, we detected a relatively small sample of Tweets promoting illegal online sale of fentanyls.  However, the detection of even a few online sellers represents a public health danger and a direct violation of law that demands further study.

Exploring trends of nonmedical use of prescription drugs and polydrug abuse in the Twittersphere using unsupervised machine learning.

INTRODUCTION: Nonmedical use of prescription medications/drugs (NMUPD) is a serious public health threat, particularly in relation to the prescription opioid analgesics abuse epidemic. While attention to this problem has been growing, there remains an urgent need to develop novel strategies in the field of "digital epidemiology" to better identify, analyze and understand trends in NMUPD behavior. METHODS: We conducted surveillance of the popular microblogging site Twitter by collecting 11 million tweets filtered for three commonly abused prescription opioid analgesic drugs Percocet® (acetaminophen/oxycodone), OxyContin® (oxycodone), and Oxycodone. Unsupervised machine learning was applied on the subset of tweets for each analgesic drug to discover underlying latent themes regarding risk behavior. A two-step process of obtaining themes, and filtering out unwanted tweets was carried out in three subsequent rounds of machine learning. RESULTS: Using this methodology, 2.3M tweets were identified that contained content relevant to analgesic NMUPD. The underlying themes were identified for each drug and the most representative tweets of each theme were annotated for NMUPD behavioral risk factors. The primary themes identified evidence high levels of social media discussion about polydrug abuse on Twitter. This included specific mention of various polydrug combinations including use of other classes of prescription drugs, and illicit drug abuse. CONCLUSIONS: This study presents a methodology to filter Twitter content for NMUPD behavior, while also identifying underlying themes with minimal human intervention. Results from the study track accurately with the inclusion/exclusion criteria used to isolate NMUPD-related risk behaviors of interest and also provides insight on NMUPD behavior that has a high level of social media engagement. Results suggest that this could be a viable methodology for use in big data substance abuse surveillance, data collection, and analysis in comparison to other studies that rely upon content analysis and human coding schemes.

Prediction and Characterization of High-Activity Events in Social Media Triggered by Real-World News.

On-line social networks publish information on a high volume of real-world events almost instantly, becoming a primary source for breaking news. Some of these real-world events can end up having a very strong impact on on-line social networks. The effect of such events can be analyzed from several perspectives, one of them being the intensity and characteristics of the collective activity that it produces in the social platform. We research 5,234 real-world news events encompassing 43 million messages discussed on the Twitter microblogging service for approximately 1 year. We show empirically that exogenous news events naturally create collective patterns of bursty behavior in combination with long periods of inactivity in the network. This type of behavior agrees with other patterns previously observed in other types of natural collective phenomena, as well as in individual human communications. In addition, we propose a methodology to classify news events according to the different levels of intensity in activity that they produce. In particular, we analyze the most highly active events and observe a consistent and strikingly different collective reaction from users when they are exposed to such events. This reaction is independent of an event's reach and scope. We further observe that extremely high-activity events have characteristics that are quite distinguishable at the beginning stages of their outbreak. This allows us to predict with high precision, the top 8% of events that will have the most impact in the social network by just using the first 5% of the information of an event's lifetime evolution. This strongly implies that high-activity events are naturally prioritized collectively by the social network, engaging users early on, way before they are brought to the mainstream audience.