From raw data to a score: comparing quantitative methods that construct multi-level composite implementation strength scores of family planning programs in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Data that capture implementation strength can be combined in multiple ways across content and health system levels to create a summary measure that can help us to explore and compare program implementation across facility catchment areas. Summary indices can make it easier for national policymakers to understand and address variation in strength of program implementation across jurisdictions. In this paper, we describe the development of an index that we used to describe the district-level strength of implementation of Malawi's national family planning program. METHODS: To develop the index, we used data collected during a 2017 national, health facility and community health worker Implementation Strength Assessment survey in Malawi to test different methods to combine indicators within and then across domains (4 methods-simple additive, weighted additive, principal components analysis, exploratory factor analysis) and combine scores across health facility and community health worker levels (2 methods-simple average and mixed effects model) to create a catchment area-level summary score for each health facility in Malawi. We explored how well each model captures variation and predicts couple-years protection and how feasible it is to conduct each type of analysis and the resulting interpretability. RESULTS: We found little difference in how the four methods combined indicator data at the individual and combined levels of the health system. However, there were major differences when combining scores across health system levels to obtain a score at the health facility catchment area level. The scores resulting from the mixed effects model were able to better discriminate differences between catchment area scores compared to the simple average method. The scores using the mixed effects combination method also demonstrated more of a dose-response relationship with couple-years protection. CONCLUSIONS: The summary measure that was calculated from the mixed effects combination method captured the variation of strength of implementation of Malawi's national family planning program at the health facility catchment area level. However, the best method for creating an index should be based on the pros and cons listed, not least, analyst capacity and ease of interpretability of findings. Ultimately, the resulting summary measure can aid decision-makers in understanding the combined effect of multiple aspects of programs being implemented in their health system and comparing the strengths of programs across geographies.

Strengthening Community-Based Vital Events Reporting for Real-Time Monitoring of Under-Five Mortality: Lessons Learned from the Balaka and Salima Districts in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Malawi ratified a compulsory birth and death registration system in 2009. Until it captures complete coverage of vital events, Malawi relies on other data sources to calculate mortality estimates. We tested a community-based method to estimate annual under-five mortality rates (U5MR) through the Real-Time Monitoring of Under-Five Mortality (RMM) project in Malawi. We implemented RMM in two phases, and conducted an independent evaluation of phase one after 21 months of implementation. We present results of the phase two validation that covers the full project time span, and compare the results to those of the phase one validation. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We assessed the completeness of the counts of births and deaths and the accuracy of disaggregated U5MR from the community-based method against a retrospective full pregnancy history for rolling twelve-month periods after the independent evaluation. We used full pregnancy histories collected through household interviews carried out between November 2013 and January 2014 as the validation data source. Health Surveillance Agents (HSAs) across the 160 catchment areas submitted routine reports on pregnancies, births, and deaths consistently. However, for the 15-month implementation period post-evaluation, average completeness of birth event reporting was 76%, whereas average completeness of death event reporting was 67% relative to that expected from a comparable pregnancy history. HSAs underestimated the U5MR by an average of 21% relative to that estimated from a comparable pregnancy history. CONCLUSIONS: On a medium scale, the community-based RMM method in Malawi produced substantial underestimates of annualized U5MR relative to those obtained from a full pregnancy history, despite the additional incentives and quality-control activities. We were not able to achieve an optimum level of incentive and support to make the system work while ensuring sustainability. Lessons learned from the implementation of RMM can inform programs supporting community-based interventions through HSAs in Malawi.

Independent Evaluation of the integrated Community Case Management of Childhood Illness Strategy in Malawi Using a National Evaluation Platform Design.

We evaluated the impact of integrated community case management of childhood illness (iCCM) on careseeking for childhood illness and child mortality in Malawi, using a National Evaluation Platform dose-response design with 27 districts as units of analysis. "Dose" variables included density of iCCM providers, drug availability, and supervision, measured through a cross-sectional cellular telephone survey of all iCCM-trained providers. "Response" variables were changes between 2010 and 2014 in careseeking and mortality in children aged 2-59 months, measured through household surveys. iCCM implementation strength was not associated with changes in careseeking or mortality. There were fewer than one iCCM-ready provider per 1,000 under-five children per district. About 70% of sick children were taken outside the home for care in both 2010 and 2014. Careseeking from iCCM providers increased over time from about 2% to 10%; careseeking from other providers fell by a similar amount. Likely contributors to the failure to find impact include low density of iCCM providers, geographic targeting of iCCM to "hard-to-reach" areas although women did not identify distance from a provider as a barrier to health care, and displacement of facility careseeking by iCCM careseeking. This suggests that targeting iCCM solely based on geographic barriers may need to be reconsidered.

Malawi and Millennium Development Goal 4: a Countdown to 2015 country case study.

BACKGROUND: Several years in advance of the 2015 endpoint for the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), Malawi was already thought to be one of the few countries in sub-Saharan Africa likely to meet the MDG 4 target of reducing under-5 mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Countdown to 2015 therefore selected the Malawi National Statistical Office to lead an in-depth country case study, aimed mainly at explaining the country's success in improving child survival. METHODS: We estimated child and neonatal mortality for the years 2000-14 using five district-representative household surveys. The study included recalculation of coverage indicators for that period, and used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to attribute the child lives saved in the years from 2000 to 2013 to various interventions. We documented the adoption and implementation of policies and programmes affecting the health of women and children, and developed estimates of financing. FINDINGS: The estimated mortality rate in children younger than 5 years declined substantially in the study period, from 247 deaths (90% CI 234-262) per 1000 livebirths in 1990 to 71 deaths (58-83) in 2013, with an annual rate of decline of 5·4%. The most rapid mortality decline occurred in the 1-59 months age group; neonatal mortality declined more slowly (from 50 to 23 deaths per 1000 livebirths), representing an annual rate of decline of 3·3%. Nearly half of the coverage indicators have increased by more than 20 percentage points between 2000 and 2014. Results from the LiST analysis show that about 280,000 children's lives were saved between 2000 and 2013, attributable to interventions including treatment for diarrhoea, pneumonia, and malaria (23%), insecticide-treated bednets (20%), vaccines (17%), reductions in wasting (11%) and stunting (9%), facility birth care (7%), and prevention and treatment of HIV (7%). The amount of funding allocated to the health sector has increased substantially, particularly to child health and HIV and from external sources, but remains below internationally agreed targets. Key policies to address the major causes of child mortality and deliver high-impact interventions at scale throughout Malawi began in the late 1990s and intensified in the latter half of the 2000s and into the 2010s, backed by health-sector-wide policies to improve women's and children's health. INTERPRETATION: This case study confirmed that Malawi had achieved MDG 4 for child survival by 2013. Our findings suggest that this was achieved mainly through the scale-up of interventions that are effective against the major causes of child deaths (malaria, pneumonia, and diarrhoea), programmes to reduce child undernutrition and mother-to-child transmission of HIV, and some improvements in the quality of care provided around birth. The Government of Malawi was among the first in sub-Saharan Africa to adopt evidence-based policies and implement programmes at scale to prevent unnecessary child deaths. Much remains to be done, building on this success and extending it to higher proportions of the population and targeting continued high neonatal mortality rates. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, WHO, The World Bank, Government of Australia, Government of Canada, Government of Norway, Government of Sweden, Government of the UK, and UNICEF.

Monitoring child mortality through community health worker reporting of births and deaths in Malawi: validation against a household mortality survey.

BACKGROUND: The rate of decline in child mortality is too slow in most African countries to achieve the Millennium Development Goal of reducing under-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Effective strategies to monitor child mortality are needed where accurate vital registration data are lacking to help governments assess and report on progress in child survival. We present results from a test of a mortality monitoring approach based on recording of births and deaths by specially trained community health workers (CHWs) in Malawi. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Government-employed community health workers in Malawi are responsible for maintaining a Village Health Register, in which they record births and deaths that occur in their catchment area. We expanded on this system to provide additional training, supervision and incentives. We tested the equivalence between child mortality rates obtained from data on births and deaths collected by 160 randomly-selected and trained CHWs over twenty months in two districts to those computed through a standard household mortality survey. CHW reports produced an under-five mortality rate that was 84% (95%CI: [0.71,1.00]) of the household survey mortality rate and statistically equivalent to it. However, CHW data consistently underestimated under-five mortality, with levels of under-estimation increasing over time. Under-five deaths were more likely to be missed than births. Neonatal and infant deaths were more likely to be missed than older deaths. CONCLUSION: This first test of the accuracy and completeness of vital events data reported by CHWs in Malawi as a strategy for monitoring child mortality shows promising results but underestimated child mortality and was not stable over the four periods assessed. Given the Malawi government's commitment to strengthen its vital registration system, we are working with the Ministry of Health to implement a revised version of the approach that provides increased support to CHWs.