Imputation of Missing Covariates in Randomized Controlled Trials with Continuous Outcomes: Simple, Unbiased and Efficient Methods.

The literature on dealing with missing covariates in nonrandomized studies advocates the use of sophisticated methods like multiple imputation (MI) and maximum likelihood (ML)-based approaches over simple methods. However, these methods are not necessarily optimal in terms of bias and efficiency of treatment effect estimation in randomized studies, where the covariate of interest (treatment group) is independent of all baseline (pre-randomization) covariates due to randomization. This has been shown in the literature, but only for missingness on a single baseline covariate. Here, we extend the situation to multiple baseline covariates with missingness and evaluate the performance of MI and ML compared with simple alternative methods under various missingness scenarios in RCTs with a quantitative outcome. We first derive asymptotic relative efficiencies of the simple methods under the missing completely at random (MCAR) scenario and then perform a simulation study for non-MCAR scenarios. Finally, a trial on chronic low back pain is used to illustrate the implementation of the methods. The results show that all simple methods give unbiased treatment effect estimation but with increased mean squared residual. It also turns out that mean imputation and the missing-indicator method are most efficient under all covariate missingness scenarios and perform at least as well as MI and LM in each scenario.

Imputation of missing covariate in randomized controlled trials with a continuous outcome: Scoping review and new results.

In this article, we first review the literature on dealing with missing values on a covariate in randomized studies and summarize what has been done and what is lacking to date. We then investigate the situation with a continuous outcome and a missing binary covariate in more details through simulations, comparing the performance of multiple imputation (MI) with various simple alternative methods. This is finally extended to the case of time-to-event outcome. The simulations consider five different missingness scenarios: missing completely at random (MCAR), at random (MAR) with missingness depending only on the treatment, and missing not at random (MNAR) with missingness depending on the covariate itself (MNAR1), missingness depending on both the treatment and covariate (MNAR2), and missingness depending on the treatment, covariate and their interaction (MNAR3). Here, we distinguish two different cases: (1) when the covariate is measured before randomization (best practice), where only MCAR and MNAR1 are plausible, and (2) when it is measured after randomization but before treatment (which sometimes occurs in nonpharmaceutical research), where the other three missingness mechanisms can also occur. The proposed methods are compared based on the treatment effect estimate and its standard error. The simulation results suggest that the patterns of results are very similar for all missingness scenarios in case (1) and also in case (2) except for MNAR3. Furthermore, in each scenario for continuous outcome, there is at least one simple method that performs at least as well as MI, while for time-to-event outcome MI is best.

FGD-PET/CT three months after (chemo)radiotherapy for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma spares considerable number of patients from a salvage neck dissection.

PURPOSE: In the last decades FDG-PET/CT is increasingly used in combination with the standard diagnostic modalities (MRI + US-FNA) to identify residual neck disease (RND) after (chemo)radiotherapy for head-and-neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). The purpose of the current study is to identify the impact of increasing use of FDG-PET/CT on the accuracy of patient selection for salvage neck dissection (SND). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between 2008 and 2022, 908 consecutive patients with node-positive HNSCC were treated with (chemo)radiotherapy in our institution. PRIMARY ENDPOINT: positive predictive value (PPV) of FDG-PET/CT for pathologic-confirmed RND (pRND) after SND, compared to the standard of care; MRI + US-FNA. Secondary endpoints: oncologic outcomes. RESULTS: Of the entire group, 130 patients (14 %) received SND. Of them only 53 patients (41 %) had pRND at the SND-specimens. The PPV of FDG-PET/CT for the detection of pRND was considerably better, compared to MRI + US-FNA; 89 % and 65 %, respectively. If FDG-PET/CT showed metabolic CR, these patients did not undergo SND. The NPV was 97.5 %, as only 2.5 % of these patients developed delayed regional failure. FDG-PET/CT considerably improved the accuracy of patient selection for SND, as significantly more patients treated in the second period, compared to first period of the study (n = 454 each) still had vital tumor at SND-specimen (53 % and 31 %, p = 0.008). Regional recurrence free-survival, DFS, OS and HNSCC-death were significantly worse in patients with pRND (p < 0.05) CONCLUSIONS: Incorporating FDG-PET/CT into the diagnostic pathway for the response evaluation after (chemo)radiotherapy significantly improved the accuracy of patient selection for SND and spared considerable number of patients (>20 %) from unnecessary SND. For patients with metabolic CR, SND can safely be omitted while for patients with no metabolic CR, SND is strongly advocated.

A multicentric randomized controlled phase III trial of adaptive and 18F-FDG-PET-guided dose-redistribution in locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (ARTFORCE).

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: This multicenter randomized phase III trial evaluated whether locoregional control of patients with LAHNSCC could be improved by fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography (FDG-PET)-guided dose-escalation while minimizing the risk of increasing toxicity using a dose-redistribution and scheduled adaptation strategy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients with T3-4-N0-3-M0 LAHNSCC were randomly assigned (1:1) to either receive a dose distribution ranging from 64-84 Gy/35 fractions with adaptation at the 10thfraction (rRT) or conventional 70 Gy/35 fractions (cRT). Both arms received concurrent three-cycle 100 mg/m2cisplatin. Primary endpoints were 2-year locoregional control (LRC) and toxicity. Primary analysis was based on the intention-to-treat principle. RESULTS: Due to slow accrual, the study was prematurely closed (at 84 %) after randomizing 221 eligible patients between 2012 and 2019 to receive rRT (N = 109) or cRT (N = 112). The 2-year LRC estimate difference of 81 % (95 %CI 74-89 %) vs. 74 % (66-83 %) in the rRT and cRT arm, respectively, was not found statistically significant (HR 0.75, 95 %CI 0.43-1.31,P=.31). Toxicity prevalence and incidence rates were similar between trial arms, with exception for a significant increased grade ≥ 3 pharyngolaryngeal stenoses incidence rate in the rRT arm (0 versus 4 %,P=.05). In post-hoc subgroup analyses, rRT improved LRC for patients with N0-1 disease (HR 0.21, 95 %CI 0.05-0.93) and oropharyngeal cancer (0.31, 0.10-0.95), regardless of HPV. CONCLUSION: Adaptive and dose redistributed radiotherapy enabled dose-escalation with similar toxicity rates compared to conventional radiotherapy. While FDG-PET-guided dose-escalation did overall not lead to significant tumor control or survival improvements, post-hoc results showed improved locoregional control for patients with N0-1 disease or oropharyngeal cancer treated with rRT.

Online Adaptive MRI-Guided Radiotherapy for Primary Tumor and Lymph Node Boosting in Rectal Cancer.

The purpose of this study was to characterize the motion and define the required treatment margins of the pathological mesorectal lymph nodes (GTVln) for two online adaptive MRI-guided strategies for sequential boosting. Secondly, we determine the margins required for the primary gross tumor volume (GTVprim). Twenty-eight patients treated on a 1.5T MR-Linac were included in the study. On T2-weighted images for adaptation (MRIadapt) before and verification after irradiation (MRIpost) of five treatment fractions per patient, the GTVln and GTVprim were delineated. With online adaptive MRI-guided radiotherapy, daily plan adaptation can be performed through the use of two different strategies. In an adapt-to-shape (ATS) workflow the interfraction motion is effectively corrected by redelineation and the only relevant motion is intrafraction motion, while in an adapt-to-position (ATP) workflow the margin (for GTVln) is dominated by interfraction motion. The margin required for GTVprim will be identical to the ATS workflow, assuming each fraction would be perfectly matched on GTVprim. The intrafraction motion was calculated between MRIadapt and MRIpost for the GTVln and GTVprim separately. The interfraction motion of the GTVln was calculated with respect to the position of GTVprim, assuming each fraction would be perfectly matched on GTVprim. PTV margins were calculated for each strategy using the Van Herk recipe. For GTVln we randomly sampled the original dataset 20 times, with each subset containing a single randomly selected lymph node for each patient. The resulting margins for ATS ranged between 3 and 4 mm (LR), 3 and 5 mm (CC) and 5 and 6 mm (AP) based on the 20 randomly sampled datasets for GTVln. For ATP, the margins for GTVln were 10-12 mm in LR and AP and 16-19 mm in CC. The margins for ATS for GTVprim were 1.7 mm (LR), 4.7 mm (CC) and 3.2 mm anterior and 5.6 mm posterior. Daily delineation using ATS of both target volumes results in the smallest margins and is therefore recommended for safe dose escalation to the primary tumor and lymph nodes.

High-dose alkylating chemotherapy in BRCA-altered triple-negative breast cancer: the randomized phase III NeoTN trial.

Exploratory analyses of high-dose alkylating chemotherapy trials have suggested that BRCA1 or BRCA2-pathway altered (BRCA-altered) breast cancer might be particularly sensitive to this type of treatment. In this study, patients with BRCA-altered tumors who had received three initial courses of dose-dense doxorubicin and cyclophosphamide (ddAC), were randomized between a fourth ddAC course followed by high-dose carboplatin-thiotepa-cyclophosphamide or conventional chemotherapy (initially ddAC only or ddAC-capecitabine/decetaxel [CD] depending on MRI response, after amendment ddAC-carboplatin/paclitaxel [CP] for everyone). The primary endpoint was the neoadjuvant response index (NRI). Secondary endpoints included recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS). In total, 122 patients were randomized. No difference in NRI-score distribution (p = 0.41) was found. A statistically non-significant RFS difference was found (HR 0.54; 95% CI 0.23-1.25; p = 0.15). Exploratory RFS analyses showed benefit in stage III (n = 35; HR 0.16; 95% CI 0.03-0.75), but not stage II (n = 86; HR 1.00; 95% CI 0.30-3.30) patients. For stage III, 4-year RFS was 46% (95% CI 24-87%), 71% (95% CI 48-100%) and 88% (95% CI 74-100%), for ddAC/ddAC-CD, ddAC-CP and high-dose chemotherapy, respectively. No significant differences were found between high-dose and conventional chemotherapy in stage II-III, triple-negative, BRCA-altered breast cancer patients. Further research is needed to establish if there are patients with stage III, triple negative BRCA-altered breast cancer for whom outcomes can be improved with high-dose alkylating chemotherapy or whether the current standard neoadjuvant therapy including carboplatin and an immune checkpoint inhibitor is sufficient. Trial Registration: NCT01057069.