Chest computed tomography for staging renal tumours: validation and simplification of a risk prediction model from a large contemporary retrospective cohort.

OBJECTIVES: To externally validate a nomogram recently proposed by Larcher et al. (BJU Int. 2017; 120: 490) and to develop a simplified model with comparable accuracy to guide on the need for staging chest computed tomography (CT) for patients with new renal masses. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We analysed the data of 1082 consecutive patients with unilateral enhancing renal masses referred to urology multidisciplinary team meetings at two centres between 2011 and 2017. All patients underwent a staging chest CT at diagnosis. We fitted multivariable logistic regression models and tested the Larcher model performance using area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC), calibration and decision curve analysis. RESULTS: Forty-two patients (3.9%) had a positive chest CT. The Larcher nomogram had an AUC of 83.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 77.1-90.6), but was only moderately well calibrated (calibration-in-the-large = -0.61, slope = 0.82). Specifically, the nomogram overestimated the risk of positive chest CT, and the magnitude of miscalibration increased with increasing predicted risks. Using a stepwise backward approach, a new model was developed including tumour size, nodal stage and systemic symptoms. Compared with the Larcher model, the new model had a similar AUC (82.7% [95% CI 75.5-90.0]), but improved calibration and clinical net benefit. The predicted risk of positive chest CT was <1% in the low-risk group and 1.9-79.9% in the high-risk group. CONCLUSION: The Larcher nomogram is an accurate prediction tool that was moderately well calibrated with our dataset. However, our simplified model has similar accuracy and uses more objective variables available from referral, so may be easier to incorporate into clinical practice. The low-risk group from our model (tumour size ≤4 cm and no systemic symptoms) had a risk of positive chest CT <1%, suggesting these patients may forego chest CT.

Major Urological Cancer Surgery for Patients is Safe and Surgical Training Should Be Encouraged During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Multicentre Analysis of 30-day Outcomes.

COVID-19 has resulted in the deferral of major surgery for genitourinary (GU) cancers with the exception of cancers with a high risk of progression. We report outcomes for major GU cancer operations, namely radical prostatectomy (RP), radical cystectomy (RC), radical nephrectomy (RN), partial nephrectomy (PN), and nephroureterectomy performed at 13 major GU cancer centres across the UK between March 1 and May 5, 2020. A total of 598 such operations were performed. Four patients (0.7%) developed COVID-19 postoperatively. There was no COVID-19-related mortality at 30 d. A minimally invasive approach was used in 499 cases (83.4%). A total of 228 cases (38.1%) were described as training procedures. Training case status was not associated with a higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score (p = 0.194) or hospital length of stay (LOS; p > 0.05 for all operation types). The risk of contracting COVID-19 was not associated with longer hospital LOS (p = 0.146), training case status (p = 0.588), higher ASA score (p = 0.295), or type of hospital site (p = 0.303). Our results suggest that major surgery for urological cancers remains safe and training should be encouraged during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic provided appropriate countermeasures are taken. These real-life data are important for policy-makers and clinicians when counselling patients during the current pandemic. PATIENT SUMMARY: We collected outcome data for major operations for prostate, bladder, and kidney cancers during the COVID-19 pandemic. These surgeries remain safe and training should be encouraged during the ongoing pandemic provided appropriate countermeasures are taken. Our real-life results are important for policy-makers and clinicians when counselling patients during the COVID-19 pandemic.