Development and internal validation of a clinical risk score to predict incident renal and pulmonary tumours in people with tuberous sclerosis complex.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to develop and internally validate a clinical risk score to predict incident renal angiomyolipoma (AML) and pulmonary lymphangioleiomyomatosis (LAM) in people with tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC). STUDY DESIGN: Data from 2420 participants in the TSC Alliance Natural History Database were leveraged for these analyses. Logistic regression was used to predict AML and LAM development using 10 early-onset clinical manifestations of TSC as potential predictors, in addition to sex and genetic mutation. For our models, we divided AML into three separate outcomes: presence or absence of AML, unilateral or bilateral and whether any are ≥3 cm in diameter. The resulting regression models were turned into clinical risk scores which were then internally validated using bootstrap resampling, measuring discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: The lowest clinical risk scores predicted a risk of AML and LAM of 1% and 0%, while the highest scores predicted a risk of 99% and 73%, respectively. Calibration was excellent for all three AML outcomes and good for LAM. Discrimination ranged from good to strong. C-statistics of 0.84, 0.83, 0.83 and 0.92 were seen for AML, bilateral AML, AML with a lesion≥3 cm and LAM, respectively. CONCLUSION: Our work is an important step towards identifying individuals who could benefit from preventative strategies as well as more versus less frequent screening imaging. We expect that our work will allow for more personalised medicine in people with TSC. External validation of the risk scores will be important to confirm the robustness of our findings.

Implications for driving based on the risk of seizures after ischaemic stroke.

BACKGROUND: In addition to other stroke-related deficits, the risk of seizures may impact driving ability after stroke. METHODS: We analysed data from a multicentre international cohort, including 4452 adults with acute ischaemic stroke and no prior seizures. We calculated the Chance of Occurrence of Seizure in the next Year (COSY) according to the SeLECT2.0 prognostic model. We considered COSY<20% safe for private and <2% for professional driving, aligning with commonly used cut-offs. RESULTS: Seizure risks in the next year were mainly influenced by the baseline risk-stratified according to the SeLECT2.0 score and, to a lesser extent, by the poststroke seizure-free interval (SFI). Those without acute symptomatic seizures (SeLECT2.0 0-6 points) had low COSY (0.7%-11%) immediately after stroke, not requiring an SFI. In stroke survivors with acute symptomatic seizures (SeLECT2.0 3-13 points), COSY after a 3-month SFI ranged from 2% to 92%, showing substantial interindividual variability. Stroke survivors with acute symptomatic status epilepticus (SeLECT2.0 7-13 points) had the highest risk (14%-92%). CONCLUSIONS: Personalised prognostic models, such as SeLECT2.0, may offer better guidance for poststroke driving decisions than generic SFIs. Our findings provide practical tools, including a smartphone-based or web-based application, to assess seizure risks and determine appropriate SFIs for safe driving.

Epilepsy surgery in adults older than 50 years: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Despite the general safety and efficacy of epilepsy surgery, there is evidence that epilepsy surgery remains underutilized. Although there are an increasing number of studies reporting epilepsy surgery in older adults, there is no consensus on whether epilepsy surgery is efficacious or safe for this population. Our objective was to systematically assess the efficacy as well as safety of resective surgery in people aged 50 years or older with drug-resistant epilepsy. METHODS: We considered studies that examine the efficacy and safety of epilepsy surgery in adults aged 50 years and older. Study eligibility was limited to studies carried out after 1990, with a minimum of 10 participants and 6 months of follow-up. We searched the following databases for published studies: Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, PsychInfo, and Web of Science Conference Proceedings Citation Index - Science. The risk of bias of each included study was independently assessed by two reviewers using the MINORS (Methodological Index for Non-Randomized Studies) instrument. RESULTS: Eleven case series and 14 cohort studies met the criteria for inclusion, for a total of 1111 older adults who underwent epilepsy surgery along with 4111 adults younger than 50 years as control groups. The pooled cumulative incidence of older adults achieving seizure freedom after resective surgery was 70.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 65.3-74.7). There was no evident difference in the incidence of seizure freedom among older adults as compared to younger adults (risk ratio [RR] = 1.05, 95% CI = .97-1.14) in cohort studies. The pooled cumulative incidence of perioperative complications in older adults was 26.2% (95% CI = 21.3-31.7). Among them, 7.5% (95% CI = 5.8-9.5) experienced major complications. Older adults were significantly more at risk of experiencing any complication than younger adults (RR = 2.8, 95% CI = 1.5-5.4). SIGNIFICANCE: Despite important considerations, epilepsy surgery may be considered appropriate among carefully selected individuals older than 50 years.

Comparison of three frailty measures for predicting hospitalization and mortality in the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have compared different measures of frailty for predicting adverse outcomes. It remains unknown which frailty measurement approach best predicts healthcare utilization such as hospitalization and mortality. AIMS: This study aims to compare three approaches to measuring frailty-grip strength, frailty phenotype, and frailty index-in predicting hospitalization and mortality among middle-aged and older Canadians. METHODS: We analyzed baseline and the first 3-year follow-up data for 30,097 participants aged 45 to 85 years from the comprehensive cohort of the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging (CLSA). Using separate logistic regression models adjusted for multimorbidity, age and biological sex, we predicted participants' risks for overnight hospitalization in the past 12 months and mortality, at the first 3-year follow-up, using each of the three frailty measurements at baseline. Model discrimination was assessed using Harrell's c-statistic and calibration assessed using calibration plots. RESULTS: The predictive performance of all three measures of frailty were roughly similar when predicting overnight hospitalization and mortality risk among CLSA participants. Model discrimination measured using c-statistics ranged from 0.67 to 0.69 for hospitalization and 0.79 to 0.80 for mortality. All measures of frailty yielded strong model calibration. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: All three measures of frailty had similar predictive performance. Discrimination was modest for predicting hospitalization and superior in predicting mortality. This likely reflects the objective nature of mortality as an outcome and the challenges in reducing the complex concept of healthcare utilization to a single variable such as any overnight hospitalization.

Teratogenesis, Perinatal, and Neurodevelopmental Outcomes After In Utero Exposure to Antiseizure Medication: Practice Guideline From the AAN, AES, and SMFM.

This practice guideline provides updated evidence-based conclusions and recommendations regarding the effects of antiseizure medications (ASMs) and folic acid supplementation on the prevalence of major congenital malformations (MCMs), adverse perinatal outcomes, and neurodevelopmental outcomes in children born to people with epilepsy of childbearing potential (PWECP). A multidisciplinary panel conducted a systematic review and developed practice recommendations following the process outlined in the 2017 edition of the American Academy of Neurology Clinical Practice Guideline Process Manual. The systematic review includes studies through August 2022. Recommendations are supported by structured rationales that integrate evidence from the systematic review, related evidence, principles of care, and inferences from evidence. The following are some of the major recommendations. When treating PWECP, clinicians should recommend ASMs and doses that optimize both seizure control and fetal outcomes should pregnancy occur, at the earliest possible opportunity preconceptionally. Clinicians must minimize the occurrence of convulsive seizures in PWECP during pregnancy to minimize potential risks to the birth parent and to the fetus. Once a PWECP is already pregnant, clinicians should exercise caution in attempting to remove or replace an ASM that is effective in controlling generalized tonic-clonic or focal-to-bilateral tonic-clonic seizures. Clinicians must consider using lamotrigine, levetiracetam, or oxcarbazepine in PWECP when appropriate based on the patient's epilepsy syndrome, likelihood of achieving seizure control, and comorbidities, to minimize the risk of MCMs. Clinicians must avoid the use of valproic acid in PWECP to minimize the risk of MCMs or neural tube defects (NTDs), if clinically feasible. Clinicians should avoid the use of valproic acid or topiramate in PWECP to minimize the risk of offspring being born small for gestational age, if clinically feasible. To reduce the risk of poor neurodevelopmental outcomes, including autism spectrum disorder and lower IQ, in children born to PWECP, clinicians must avoid the use of valproic acid in PWECP, if clinically feasible. Clinicians should prescribe at least 0.4 mg of folic acid supplementation daily preconceptionally and during pregnancy to any PWECP treated with an ASM to decrease the risk of NTDs and possibly improve neurodevelopmental outcomes in the offspring.