Higher Molecular Injury at Diagnosis of Acute Cellular Rejection Increases the Risk of Lung Allograft Failure: A Clinical Trial.

Rationale: The association of acute cellular rejection (ACR) with chronic lung allograft dysfunction (CLAD) in lung transplant recipients has primarily been described before consensus recommendations incorporating restrictive phenotypes. Furthermore, the association of the degree of molecular allograft injury during ACR with CLAD or death remains undefined. Objectives: To investigate the association of ACR with the risk of CLAD or death and to further investigate if this risk depends on the degree of molecular allograft injury. Methods: This multicenter, prospective cohort study included 188 lung transplant recipients. Subjects underwent serial plasma collections for donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) at prespecified time points and bronchoscopy. Multivariable Cox proportional-hazards analysis was conducted to analyze the association of ACR with subsequent CLAD or death as well as the association of dd-cfDNA during ACR with risk of CLAD or death. Additional outcomes analyses were performed with episodes of ACR categorized as "high risk" (dd-cfDNA ⩾ 1%) and "low risk" (dd-cfDNA < 1%). Measurements and Main Results: In multivariable analysis, ACR was associated with the composite outcome of CLAD or death (hazard ratio [HR], 2.07 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.05-4.10]; P = 0.036). Elevated dd-cfDNA ⩾ 1% at ACR diagnosis was independently associated with increased risk of CLAD or death (HR, 3.32; 95% CI, 1.31-8.40; P = 0.012). Patients with high-risk ACR were at increased risk of CLAD or death (HR, 3.13; 95% CI, 1.41-6.93; P = 0.005), whereas patients with low-risk status ACR were not. Conclusions: Patients with ACR are at higher risk of CLAD or death, but this may depend on the degree of underlying allograft injury at the molecular level. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02423070).

Cell-Free DNA Maps Tissue Injury and Correlates with Disease Severity in Lung Transplant Candidates.

Rationale: Plasma cell-free DNA levels correlate with disease severity in many conditions. Pretransplant cell-free DNA may risk stratify lung transplant candidates for post-transplant complications. Objectives: To evaluate if pretransplant cell-free DNA levels and tissue sources identify patients at high risk of primary graft dysfunction and other pre- and post-transplant outcomes. Methods: This multicenter, prospective cohort study recruited 186 lung transplant candidates. Pretransplant plasma samples were collected to measure cell-free DNA. Bisulfite sequencing was performed to identify the tissue sources of cell-free DNA. Multivariable regression models determined the association between cell-free DNA levels and the primary outcome of primary graft dysfunction and other transplant outcomes, including Lung Allocation Score, chronic lung allograft dysfunction, and death. Measurements and Main Results: Transplant candidates had twofold greater cell-free DNA levels than healthy control patients (median [interquartile range], 23.7 ng/ml [15.1-35.6] vs. 12.9 ng/ml [9.9-18.4]; P < 0.0001), primarily originating from inflammatory innate immune cells. Cell-free DNA levels and tissue sources differed by native lung disease category and correlated with the Lung Allocation Score (P < 0.001). High pretransplant cell-free DNA increased the risk of primary graft dysfunction (odds ratio, 1.60; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.09-2.46; P = 0.0220), and death (hazard ratio, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.07-1.92; P = 0.0171) but not chronic lung allograft dysfunction (hazard ratio, 1.37; 95% CI, 0.97-1.94; P = 0.0767). Conclusions: Lung transplant candidates demonstrate a heightened degree of tissue injury with elevated cell-free DNA, primarily originating from innate immune cells. Pretransplant plasma cell-free DNA levels predict post-transplant complications.

Comparison of donor-derived cell-free DNA between single versus double lung transplant recipients.

Plasma donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) is a sensitive biomarker for the diagnosis of acute rejection in lung transplant recipients; however, differences in dd-cfDNA levels between single and double lung transplant remains unknown. We performed an observational analysis that included 221 patients from two prospective cohort studies who had serial measurements of plasma dd-cfDNA at the time of bronchoscopy and pulmonary function testing, and compared dd-cfDNA between single and double lung transplant recipients across a range of disease states. Levels of dd-cfDNA were lower for single vs. double lung transplant in stable controls (median [IQR]: 0.15% [0.07, 0.44] vs. 0.46% [0.23, 0.74], p < .01) and acute rejection (1.06% [0.75, 2.32] vs. 1.78% [1.18, 5.73], p = .05). Doubling dd-cfDNA for single lung transplant to account for differences in lung mass eliminated this difference. The area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) for the detection of acute rejection was 0.89 and 0.86 for single and double lung transplant, respectively. The optimal dd-cfDNA threshold for the detection of acute rejection was 0.54% in single lung and 1.1% in double lung transplant. In conclusion, accounting for differences in dd-cfDNA in single versus double lung transplant is key for the interpretation of dd-cfDNA testing in research and clinical settings.

Preintubation Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score for Predicting COVID-19 Mortality: External Validation Using Electronic Health Record From 86 U.S. Healthcare Systems to Appraise Current Ventilator Triage Algorithms.

OBJECTIVES: Prior research has hypothesized the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score to be a poor predictor of mortality in mechanically ventilated patients with COVID-19. Yet, several U.S. states have proposed SOFA-based algorithms for ventilator triage during crisis standards of care. Using a large cohort of mechanically ventilated patients with COVID-19, we externally validated the predictive capacity of the preintubation SOFA score for mortality prediction with and without other commonly used algorithm elements. DESIGN: Multicenter, retrospective cohort study using electronic health record data. SETTING: Eighty-six U.S. health systems. PATIENTS: Patients with COVID-19 hospitalized between January 1, 2020, and February 14, 2021, and subsequently initiated on mechanical ventilation. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Among 15,122 mechanically ventilated patients with COVID-19, SOFA score alone demonstrated poor discriminant accuracy for inhospital mortality in mechanically ventilated patients using the validation cohort (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.66; 95% CI, 0.65-0.67). Discriminant accuracy was even poorer using SOFA score categories (AUC, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.54-0.55). Age alone demonstrated greater discriminant accuracy for inhospital mortality than SOFA score (AUC, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.69-0.72). Discriminant accuracy for mortality improved upon addition of age to the continuous SOFA score (AUC, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.73-0.76) and categorized SOFA score (AUC, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.71-0.73) models, respectively. The addition of comorbidities did not substantially increase model discrimination. Of 36 U.S. states with crisis standards of care guidelines containing ventilator triage algorithms, 31 (86%) feature the SOFA score. Of these, 25 (81%) rely heavily on the SOFA score (12 exclusively propose SOFA; 13 place highest weight on SOFA or propose SOFA with one other variable). CONCLUSIONS: In a U.S. cohort of over 15,000 ventilated patients with COVID-19, the SOFA score displayed poor predictive accuracy for short-term mortality. Our findings warrant reappraisal of the SOFA score's implementation and weightage in existing ventilator triage pathways in current U.S. crisis standards of care guidelines.

Organizing pneumonia is associated with molecular allograft injury and the development of antibody-mediated rejection.

BACKGROUND: The association between organizing pneumonia (OP) after lung transplantation with the development of acute rejection (AR) remains undefined. In addition, molecular allograft injury, as measured by donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA), during episodes of OP and its relationship to episodes of AR, chronic lung allograft dysfunction (CLAD), or death is unknown. METHODS: This multicenter, prospective cohort study collected serial plasma samples from 188 lung transplant recipients for dd-cfDNA at the time of bronchoscopy with biopsy. Multivariable Cox regression was used to analyze the association between OP with the development of AR (antibody-mediated rejection (AMR) and acute cellular rejection (ACR)), CLAD, and death. Multivariable models were performed to test the association of dd-cfDNA at OP with the risk of AR, CLAD, or death. RESULTS: In multivariable analysis, OP was associated with increased risk of AMR (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.26, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-4.92, p = 0.040) but not ACR (HR = 1.29, 95% CI: 0.66-2.5, p = 0.45) or the composite outcome of CLAD or death (HR = 0.88, 95% CI, 0.47-1.65, p = 0.69). Median levels of dd-cfDNA were higher in OP compared to stable controls (1.33% vs 0.43%, p = 0.0006). Multivariable analysis demonstrated that levels of dd-cfDNA at diagnosis of OP were associated with increased risk of both AMR (HR = 1.29, 95% CI 1.03-1.62, p = 0.030) and death (HR = 1.16, 95% CI, 1.02-1.31, p = 0.026). CONCLUSIONS: OP is independently associated with an increased risk of AMR but not CLAD or death. The degree of molecular allograft injury at the diagnosis of OP may further predict the risk of AMR and death.

Baseline Lung Allograft Dysfunction After Bilateral Lung Transplantation Is Associated With an Increased Risk of Death: Results From a Multicenter Cohort Study.

Background: A prior single-center, retrospective cohort study identified baseline lung allograft dysfunction (BLAD) as a risk factor for death in bilateral lung transplant recipients. In this multicenter prospective cohort study, we test the association of BLAD with death in bilateral lung transplant recipients, identify clinical risk factors for BLAD, and assess its association with allograft injury on the molecular level. Methods: This multicenter, prospective cohort study included 173 bilateral lung transplant recipients that underwent serial pulmonary function testing and plasma collection for donor-derived cell-free DNA at prespecified time points. BLAD was defined as failure to achieve ≥80% predicted for both forced expiratory volume in 1 s and forced vital capacity after lung transplant, on 2 consecutive measurements at least 3 mo apart. Results: BLAD was associated with increased risk of death (hazard ratio, 1.97; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-3.69; P = 0.03) but not chronic lung allograft dysfunction alone (hazard ratio, 1.60; 95% CI, 0.87-2.95; P = 0.13). Recipient obesity (odds ratio, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.15-2.80; P = 0.04) and donor age (odds ratio, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.02-1.05; P = 0.004) increased the risk of developing BLAD. Patients with BLAD did not demonstrate higher log10(donor-derived cell-free DNA) levels compared with no BLAD (slope [SE]: -0.0095 [0.0007] versus -0.0109 [0.0007]; P = 0.15). Conclusions: BLAD is associated with an increased risk of death following lung transplantation, representing an important posttransplant outcome with valuable prognostic significance; however, early allograft specific injury on the molecular level does not increase the risk of BLAD, supporting further mechanistic insight into disease pathophysiology.

Extreme elevations of donor-derived cell-free DNA increases the risk of chronic lung allograft dysfunction and death, even without clinical manifestations of disease.

BACKGROUND: Lung transplant recipients are traditionally monitored with pulmonary function testing (PFT) and lung biopsy to detect post-transplant complications and guide treatment. Plasma donor-derived cell free DNA (dd-cfDNA) is a novel molecular approach of assessing allograft injury, including subclinical allograft dysfunction. The aim of this study was to determine if episodes of extreme molecular injury (EMI) in lung transplant recipients increases the risk of chronic lung allograft dysfunction (CLAD) or death. METHODS: This multicenter prospective cohort study included 238 lung transplant recipients. Serial plasma samples were collected for dd-cfDNA measurement by shotgun sequencing. EMI was defined as a dd-cfDNA above the third quartile of levels observed for acute rejection (dd-cfDNA level of ≥5% occurring after 45 days post-transplant). EMI was categorized as Secondary if associated with co-existing acute rejection, infection or PFT decline; or Primary if not associated with these conditions. RESULTS: EMI developed in 16% of patients at a median 343.5 (IQR: 177.3-535.5) days post-transplant. Over 50% of EMI episodes were classified as Primary. EMI was associated with an increased risk of severe CLAD or death (HR: 2.78, 95% CI: 1.26-6.22, p = 0.012). The risk remained consistent for the Primary EMI subgroup (HR: 2.34, 95% CI 1.18-4.85, p = 0.015). Time to first EMI episode was a significant predictor of the likelihood of developing CLAD or death (AUC=0.856, 95% CI=0.805-0.908, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Episodes of EMI in lung transplant recipients are often isolated and may not be detectable with traditional clinical monitoring approaches. EMI is associated with an increased risk of severe CLAD or death, independent of concomitant transplant complications.

Impact of Surge Strain and Pandemic Progression on Prognostication by an Established COVID-19-Specific Severity Score.

IMPORTANCE: Many U.S. State crisis standards of care (CSC) guidelines incorporated Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), a sepsis-related severity score, in pandemic triage algorithms. However, SOFA performed poorly in COVID-19. Although disease-specific scores may perform better, their prognostic utility over time and in overcrowded care settings remains unclear. OBJECTIVES: We evaluated prognostication by the modified 4C (m4C) score, a COVID-19-specific prognosticator that demonstrated good predictive capacity early in the pandemic, as a potential tool to standardize triage across time and hospital-surge environments. DESIGN: Retrospective observational cohort study. SETTING: Two hundred eighty-one U.S. hospitals in an administrative healthcare dataset. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 298,379 hospitalized adults with COVID-19 were identified from March 1, 2020, to January 31, 2022. m4C scores were calculated from admission diagnosis codes, vital signs, and laboratory values. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Hospital-surge index, a severity-weighted measure of COVID-19 caseload, was calculated for each hospital-month. Discrimination of in-hospital mortality by m4C and surge index-adjusted models was measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC). Calibration was assessed by training models on early pandemic waves and measuring fit (deviation from bisector) in subsequent waves. RESULTS: From March 2020 to January 2022, 298,379 adults with COVID-19 were admitted across 281 U.S. hospitals. m4C adequately discriminated mortality in wave 1 (AUC 0.779 [95% CI, 0.769-0.789]); discrimination was lower in subsequent waves (wave 2: 0.772 [95% CI, 0.765-0.779]; wave 3: 0.746 [95% CI, 0.743-0.750]; delta: 0.707 [95% CI, 0.702-0.712]; omicron: 0.729 [95% CI, 0.721-0.738]). m4C demonstrated reduced calibration in contemporaneous waves that persisted despite periodic recalibration. Performance characteristics were similar with and without adjustment for surge. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Mortality prediction by the m4C score remained robust to surge strain, making it attractive for when triage is most needed. However, score performance has deteriorated in recent waves. CSC guidelines relying on defined prognosticators, especially for dynamic disease processes like COVID-19, warrant frequent reappraisal to ensure appropriate resource allocation.

The ISHLT chronic lung allograft dysfunction consensus criteria are applicable to pulmonary chronic graft-versus-host disease.

Pulmonary chronic graft-versus-host disease (PcGVHD) is a devastating complication of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HCT). The 2014 National Institutes of Health cGVHD consensus criteria (NIH criteria) only captures bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS). In this study, we adapted the 2019 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation (ISHLT) criteria of chronic lung allograft dysfunction (CLAD) to define novel phenotypes of PcGVHD and compared the performance of this criteria with the NIH criteria to identify patients with high-risk PcGVHD. We reviewed consecutive patients in a cGVHD natural history protocol (#NCT00092235) and adapted the 2019 CLAD criteria (the adapted criteria) to define PcGVHD as post-HCT forced expiratory volume at 1 second < 80% predicted value, with 4 phenotypes: obstructive, restrictive, mixed obstructive/restrictive, and undefined. An independent adjudication committee evaluated subjects for diagnosis and phenotyping. We identified 166 (47.4%) patients who met the adapted criteria, including obstruction (n = 12, 3.4%), restriction (n = 67, 19.1%), mixed obstruction/restriction (n = 47, 13.4%), and undefined (n = 40, 11.4%). In these patients, less than half (n = 78) met the NIH criteria for BOS (NIH+); the rest (n = 88) did not (NIH-). The NIH- subjects showed increased risk of death compared with those without PcGVHD (hazard ratio = 1.88, 95% confidence interval = 1.20-2.95; P = .006) that was similar to NIH+ subjects (P = .678). Our study demonstrated the potential of the adapted criteria in identifying patients with high-risk PcGVHD that have been missed by the NIH criteria. The adapted criteria could become a valuable tool to better phenotype and study lung disease in cGVHD.

Donor-derived cell-free DNA accurately detects acute rejection in lung transplant patients, a multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Acute rejection, which includes antibody-mediated rejection and acute cellular rejection, is a risk factor for lung allograft loss. Lung transplant patients often undergo surveillance transbronchial biopsies to detect and treat acute rejection before irreversible chronic rejection develops. Limitations of this approach include its invasiveness and high interobserver variability. We tested the performance of percent donor-derived cell-free DNA (%ddcfDNA), a non-invasive blood test, to detect acute rejection. METHODS: This multicenter cohort study monitored 148 lung transplant subjects over a median of 19.6 months. We collected serial plasma samples contemporaneously with TBBx to measure %ddcfDNA. Clinical data was collected to adjudicate for acute rejection. The primary analysis consisted of computing the area-under-the-receiver-operating-characteristic-curve of %ddcfDNA to detect acute rejection. Secondary analysis determined %ddcfDNA rule-out thresholds for acute rejection. RESULTS: ddcfDNA levels were high after transplant surgery and decayed logarithmically. With acute rejection, ddcfDNA levels rose six-fold higher than controls. ddcfDNA levels also correlated with severity of lung function decline and histological grading of rejection. %ddcfDNA area-under-the-receiver-operating-characteristic-curve for acute rejection, AMR, and ACR were 0.89, 0.93, and 0.83, respectively. ddcfDNA levels of <0.5% and <1.0% showed a negative predictive value of 96% and 90% for acute rejection, respectively. Histopathology detected one-third of episodes with ddcfDNA levels ≥1.0%, even though >90% of these events were coincident to clinical complications missed by histopathology. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that %ddcfDNA reliably detects acute rejection and other clinical complications potentially missed by histopathology, lending support to its use as a non-invasive marker of allograft injury.

Epidemiology of asthma.

There is no illness more in need of epidemiological study than asthma. Despite significant advances in our understanding of the pathophysiology, course, and management of this disease, its prevalence, morbidity, and mortality appear to be on the rise, and the reasons are not entirely clear. Historically, epidemiological studies of asthma have suffered from the lack of a standardized definition of the disease and the lack of a ;;gold standard'' with which to compare objective measures for diagnosing the illness. Recent studies have overcome some of these difficulties to provide solid epidemiological data on asthma from a global perspective. International studies have demonstrated that asthma prevalence varies significantly worldwide, with Western, English-speaking countries having the highest prevalence rates. In the United States, the prevalence of asthma has increased by nearly 75% in the past 2 decades. Young children, blacks, and Hispanics tend to be disproportionately affected by the disease. Asthma morbidity, as measured by emergency department visits, hospitalizations, and medication usage has been increasing worldwide, and asthma mortality, although still rare, has been increasing as well. Epidemiological studies have provided important information regarding the etiology and risk factors for asthma. The disease is emerging as a prototypical illness for the alliance of genetic and environmental disease determinants. Some of the most important conclusions relate to the developing immune system and the timing of certain allergic or infectious exposures that may predispose the child to develop asthma. Indeed, advances in epidemiological study will be critical if we are to intervene and reverse some of asthma's disturbing trends.