Vulnerability to climate change of United States marine mammal stocks in the western North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean.

Climate change and climate variability are affecting marine mammal species and these impacts are projected to continue in the coming decades. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species using currently available information. We conducted a trait-based climate vulnerability assessment using expert elicitation for 108 marine mammal stocks and stock groups in the western North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea. Our approach combined the exposure (projected change in environmental conditions) and sensitivity (ability to tolerate and adapt to changing conditions) of marine mammal stocks to estimate vulnerability to climate change, and categorize stocks with a vulnerability index. The climate vulnerability score was very high for 44% (n = 47) of these stocks, high for 29% (n = 31), moderate for 20% (n = 22), and low for 7% (n = 8). The majority of stocks (n = 78; 72%) scored very high exposure, whereas 24% (n = 26) scored high, and 4% (n = 4) scored moderate. The sensitivity score was very high for 33% (n = 36) of these stocks, high for 18% (n = 19), moderate for 34% (n = 37), and low for 15% (n = 16). Vulnerability results were summarized for stocks in five taxonomic groups: pinnipeds (n = 4; 25% high, 75% moderate), mysticetes (n = 7; 29% very high, 57% high, 14% moderate), ziphiids (n = 8; 13% very high, 50% high, 38% moderate), delphinids (n = 84; 52% very high, 23% high, 15% moderate, 10% low), and other odontocetes (n = 5; 60% high, 40% moderate). Factors including temperature, ocean pH, and dissolved oxygen were the primary drivers of high climate exposure, with effects mediated through prey and habitat parameters. We quantified sources of uncertainty by bootstrapping vulnerability scores, conducting leave-one-out analyses of individual attributes and individual scorers, and through scoring data quality for each attribute. These results provide information for researchers, managers, and the public on marine mammal responses to climate change to enhance the development of more effective marine mammal management, restoration, and conservation activities that address current and future environmental variation and biological responses due to climate change.

An adaptive framework for selecting environmental monitoring protocols to support ocean renewable energy development.

Offshore renewable energy developments (OREDs) are projected to become common in the United States over the next two decades. There are both a need and an opportunity to guide efforts to identify and track impacts to the marine ecosystem resulting from these installations. A monitoring framework and standardized protocols that can be applied to multiple types of ORED would streamline scientific study, management, and permitting at these sites. We propose an adaptive and reactive framework based on indicators of the likely changes to the marine ecosystem due to ORED. We developed decision trees to identify suites of impacts at two scales (demonstration and commercial) depending on energy (wind, tidal, and wave), structure (e.g., turbine), and foundation type (e.g., monopile). Impacts were categorized by ecosystem component (benthic habitat and resources, fish and fisheries, avian species, marine mammals, and sea turtles) and monitoring objectives were developed for each. We present a case study at a commercial-scale wind farm and develop a monitoring plan for this development that addresses both local and national environmental concerns. In addition, framework has provided a starting point for identifying global research needs and objectives for understanding of the potential effects of ORED on the marine environment.

The distribution of manta rays in the western North Atlantic Ocean off the eastern United States.

In 2018, the giant manta ray was listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. We integrated decades of sightings and survey effort data from multiple sources in a comprehensive species distribution modeling (SDM) framework to evaluate the distribution of giant manta rays off the eastern United States, including the Gulf of Mexico. Manta rays were most commonly detected at productive nearshore and shelf-edge upwelling zones at surface thermal frontal boundaries within a temperature range of approximately 20-30 °C. SDMs predicted highest nearshore occurrence off northeastern Florida during April, with the distribution extending northward along the shelf-edge as temperatures warm, leading to higher occurrences north of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina from June to October, and then south of Savannah, Georgia from November to March as temperatures cool. In the Gulf of Mexico, the highest nearshore occurrence was predicted around the Mississippi River delta from April to June and again from October to November. SDM predictions will allow resource managers to more effectively protect manta rays from fisheries bycatch, boat strikes, oil and gas activities, contaminants and pollutants, and other threats.

Swim speed, behavior, and movement of North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis) in coastal waters of northeastern Florida, USA.

In a portion of the coastal waters of northeastern Florida, North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis) occur close to shore from December through March. These waters are included within the designated critical habitat for right whales. Data on swim speed, behavior, and direction of movement--with photo-identification of individual whales--were gathered by a volunteer sighting network working alongside experienced scientists and supplemented by aerial observations. In seven years (2001-2007), 109 tracking periods or "follows" were conducted on right whales during 600 hours of observation from shore-based observers. The whales were categorized as mother-calf pairs, singles and non-mother-calf pairs, and groups of 3 or more individuals. Sample size and amount of information obtained was largest for mother-calf pairs. Swim speeds varied within and across observation periods, individuals, and categories. One category, singles and non mother-calf pairs, was significantly different from the other two--and had the largest variability and the fastest swim speeds. Median swim speed for all categories was 1.3 km/h (0.7 kn), with examples that suggest swim speeds differ between within-habitat movement and migration-mode travel. Within-habitat right whales often travel back-and-forth in a north-south, along-coast, direction, which may cause an individual to pass by a given point on several occasions, potentially increasing anthropogenic risk exposure (e.g., vessel collision, fishing gear entanglement, harassment). At times, mothers and calves engaged in lengthy stationary periods (up to 7.5 h) that included rest, nursing, and play. These mother-calf interactions have implications for communication, learning, and survival. Overall, these behaviors are relevant to population status, distribution, calving success, correlation to environmental parameters, survey efficacy, and human-impacts mitigation. These observations contribute important parameters to conservation biology, predictive modeling, and management. However, while we often search for predictions, patterns, and means, the message here is also about variability and the behavioral characteristics of individual whales.

Using hierarchical bayes to understand movement, health, and survival in the endangered north atlantic right whale.

Body condition is an indicator of health, and it plays a key role in many vital processes for mammalian species. While evidence of individual body condition can be obtained, these observations provide just brief glimpses into the health state of the animal. An analytical framework is needed for understanding how health of animals changes over space and time.Through knowledge of individual health we can better understand the status of populations. This is particularly important in endangered species, where the consequences of disruption of critical biological functions can push groups of animals rapidly toward extinction. Here we built a state-space model that provides estimates of movement, health, and survival. We assimilated 30+ years of photographic evidence of body condition and three additional visual health parameters in individual North Atlantic right whales, together with survey data, to infer the true health status as it changes over space and time. We also included the effect of reproductive status and entanglement status on health. At the population level, we estimated differential movement patterns in males and females. At the individual level, we estimated the likely animal locations each month. We estimated the relationship between observed and latent health status. Observations of body condition, skin condition, cyamid infestation on the blowholes, and rake marks all provided measures of the true underlying health. The resulting time series of individual health highlight both normal variations in health status and how anthropogenic stressors can affect the health and, ultimately, the survival of individuals. This modeling approach provides information for monitoring of health in right whales, as well as a framework for integrating observational data at the level of individuals up through the health status of the population. This framework can be broadly applied to a variety of systems - terrestrial and marine - where sporadic observations of individuals exist.