The Alberta Infant Motor Scale as an Outcomes Measure of Gross Motor Abilities after Early Complex Cardiac Surgery.

To address the research hypothesis that the Alberta Infant Motor Scale (AIMS) completed following complex cardiac surgery (CCS) is a useful outcomes measure this study determined: (1) AIMS scores at age 8 months after CCS; (2) predictive validity of AIMS at 8 months for Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development-III Gross Motor-scaled scores (GMSS) and diagnosis of cerebral palsy (CP) at 21 months; and (3) predictive demographic and surgical variables of AIMS scores. A prospective cohort study of 250/271 (92.3%) surviving children from Northern Alberta (born 2009-2020) who had CCS at age < 6 months determined AIMS scores at age mean (SD) 8.6 (2.4) and the GMSS at 21.9 (3.8) months. Gross motor delay was defined as AIMS < 5th percentile and GMSS as < 4 (-2SD). Predictions using multiple logistic regressions were expressed as Odds Ratios (OR) and 95% Confidence Interval (CI). Of children, 100/250 (40%) had AIMS < 5th predicting GMSS < 4 (n = 43); sensitivity, specificity, positive, and negative predictive values were 88%, 71%, 40%, and 97%. Hospitalization days were independently associated with AIMS < 5th, OR 1.02 (95% CI 1.007, 1.032; p = 0.005). Excluding hospital days, ventilation days independently predicted AIMS < 5th, OR 1.08 (95% CI 1.038, 1.125, p < 0.001. Gross motor delay determine by AIMS scores of < 5th percentile occurred in 40% of survivors with good prediction of continued delay. Delay determined by AIMS was predicted by longer hospitalization and ventilation; further investigations about the causes are required. AIMS results provide opportunity for early motor intervention.

Differences in gross motor and fine motor outcomes for toddlers after early complex cardiac surgery.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether gross motor scores of toddlers after complex cardiac surgery were different from fine motor scores and were adequately represented by motor composite scores and, whether acute care predictors and chronic childhood health markers of gross motor scores differed from those of fine motor. METHODS: This prospective inception-cohort outcomes study included 171 toddlers after complex cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass at age <6 months, born in Northern Alberta from 2009 to 2019, and without known chromosomal abnormalities. At a mean (standard deviation) age of 21.7 (3.7) months, the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development-III determined motor composite and scaled scores (normative values, 100 (15), 10 (3), respectively). The same variables from surgery and assessment were analysed using multivariate regression to predict gross and fine motor scores; results expressed as effect size (95% confidence interval) with % variance. RESULTS: Composite, fine, and gross motor scores were 89.7 (14.2), 9.4 (2.5), and 7.2 (2.7), respectively. Predictive variables accounted for 21.2% of the variance for fine motor, and 36.9% for gross motor. Multivariate analysis for gross motor scores included toddlers need for cardiac medication, effect size (95% confidence interval) -0.801 (-1.62, -0.02), gastrostomy, -1.35 (-2.39, -0.319), and single ventricle, -0.93 (-1.71, -0.15). These same variables did not predict fine motor scores. CONCLUSION: Gross motor skills commonly were lower than fine motor skills for toddlers after complex cardiac surgery. Predictors for gross motor scores differed from fine motor scores. Separate reporting of gross motor scores could lead to improved identification of predictors of delay and to optimised early intervention.

The level and trend of road traffic injuries attributable mortality rate in Iran, 1990-2015: a story of successful regulations and a roadmap to design future policies.

BACKGROUND: Road-Traffic-Injuries (RTIs) are predicted to rise up to the fifth leading cause of worldwide death by 2030 and Iran has the third highest RTIs mortality among higher-middle income countries. Although the high mortality of RTI in Iran is a warning, it provides the opportunity to indirectly assess the implemented RTI-related regulations' effectiveness via high-resolution relevant statistics and, hence, Iran could serve as a guide for countries with similar context. In order to do so, we utilized this study to report the time and spatial trends of RTIs-related mortality in different age and sex groups and road user classes in Iran. METHODS: Based on the national death-registration-system (DRS), cemeteries data, and the demographic characteristics, and after addressing incompleteness, we estimated mortality rates using spatiotemporal and Gaussian process regression models. We assessed Pearson seatbelt and helmet use and RTIs-attributable Age-Standardized-Morality-Rate (ASMR) associations. We also predicted RTIs-death-numbers, 2012-2020, by fitting a Generalized Additive Model to assess the status of achieving relevant sustainable development goal (SDG), namely reducing the number of RTIs-related deaths by half. RESULTS: Overall RTIs-attributable death and ASMR at the national level increased from 12.64 [95% UI, 9.52-16.86] to 29.1 [22.76-37.14] per 100,000 people in the time period of 1990-2015. The trend consisted of an increasing segment in 1990-2003 followed by a decreasing part till 2015. The highest percentage of death belonged to the three-or-more-wheels motorized vehicles. Pedestrian injuries percentage increased significantly and the highest mortality rate occurred in 85 years and older individuals. Low prevalence of seatbelt and helmet use were observed in provinces with higher than the median ASMR due to the relevant cause of each. RTIs-attributable death number is expected to reduce by 15.99% till 2020 which is lower than the established SDG goal. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the observed substantial moderation in the RTI-ASMR, Iran is till among the leading countries in terms of the highest mortality rates in the world. The enforced regulations including speed limitations (particularly for elder pedestrians) and mandatory use of seatbelt and helmet (for young adult and male drivers) had a considerable effect on ASMR, nevertheless, the RTI burden reduction needs to be sustained and enhanced.

Geographical and socioeconomic inequalities in female breast cancer incidence and mortality in Iran: A Bayesian spatial analysis of registry data.

BACKGROUND: In Iran, trends in breast cancer incidence and mortality have generally been monitored at national level. The purpose of this study is to examine province-level disparities in age-standardised breast cancer incidence versus mortality from 2000 to 2010 and their association with socioeconomic status. METHODS: In this study, data from Iran's national cancer and death registry systems, and covariates from census and household expenditure surveys were used. We estimated the age-standardised incidence and mortality rates in women aged more than 30 years for all 31 provinces in the consecutive time intervals 2000-2003, 2004-2007 and 2008-2010 using a Bayesian spatial model. RESULTS: Mean age-standardised breast cancer incidence across provinces increased over time from 15.0 per 100,000 people (95% credible interval 12.0,18.3) in 2000-2003 to 39.6 (34.5,45.1) in 2008-2010. The mean breast cancer mortality rate declined from 10.9 (8.3,13.8) to 9.9 (7.5,12.5) deaths per 100,000 people in the same period. When grouped by wealth index quintiles, provinces in the highest quintile had higher levels of incidence and mortality. In the wealthiest quintile, reductions in mortality over time were larger than those observed among provinces in the poorest quintile. Relative breast cancer mortality decreased by 16.7% in the highest quintile compared to 10.8% in the lowest quintile. CONCLUSIONS: Breast cancer incidence has increased over time, with lower incidence in the poorest provinces likely driven by underdiagnoses or late-stage diagnosis. Although the reported mortality rate is still higher in wealthier provinces, the larger decline over time in these provinces indicates a possible future reversal, with the most deprived provinces having higher mortality rates. Ongoing analysis of incidence and mortality at sub-national level is crucial in addressing inequalities in healthcare systems and public health both in Iran and elsewhere.

Epidemiology of Hepatitis B in Iran from 2000 to 2016: A Systematic Review and Meta-Regression Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis B infection is the major risk factor for liver cancer in Iran. There is no comprehensive population-based study on the prevalence of hepatitis B by regional distribution. Moreover, systematic reviews of hepatitis B prevalence lack knowledge of some regions. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of hepatitis B and its temporal trends over 17 years by sex, age and geographical distribution. METHODS: We used the Iranian Blood Donors data in addition to systematic reviews on population-based studies at national and provincial levels and statistical methods (A two-stage spatio-temporal model and crosswalk approach) to address the missing points of hepatitis B prevalence among the general population. The direct age-standardized approach was applied using Iran's national population in 2016. RESULTS: At national level, age-standardized hepatitis B prevalence in Iran decreased from 3.02% (95% uncertainty interval; 2.26 to 3.96) in 2000 to 1.09% (95% uncertainty interval; 0.85 to 1.37) in 2016, with a total -64.84% change. Hepatitis B prevalence was more than 1.3 times greater in males than females in 2016. Overall, the prevalence of hepatitis B increased with increasing age. At provincial level, in 2016, the province with the highest prevalence had a nearly 11-time greater rate compared to the lowest prevalence. The declining annual percent change (APC) of the prevalence trend varied between -11.53% to -0.5% at provincial level from 2000 to 2016. Only one province did not witness a downward trend in which the APC was 0.5% (95% UI:0.47-0.54). CONCLUSION: The downward trend in prevalence of hepatitis B infection indicates the effectiveness of strategies and preventive measures adapted in Iran. Nevertheless, we need to eradicate this infection. In this regard, re-evaluating preventive measures, especially in high-risk age groups of the population, is recommended.

Evaluation of the Trends of Stomach Cancer Incidence in Districts of Iran from 2000-2010: Application of a Random Effects Markov Model.

BACKGROUND: Stomach cancer is the fifth most common cancer and the third leading cause of death among cancers throughout the world. Therefore, stomach cancer outcomes can affect health systems at the national and international levels. Although stomach cancer mortality and incidence rates have decreased in developed countries, these indicators have a raising trend in East Asian developing countries, particularity in Iran. In this study, we aimed to determine the time trend of age-standardized rates of stomach cancer in different districts of Iran from 2000 to 2010. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Cases of cancer were registered using a pathology-based system during 2000-2007 and with a population-based system since 2008 in Iran. In this study, we collected information about the incidence of stomach cancer during a 10 year period for 31 provinces and 376 districts, with a total of 49,917 cases. We employed two statistical approaches (a random effects and a random effects Markov model) for modeling the incidence of stomach cancer in different districts of Iran during the studied period. RESULTS: The random effects model showed that the incidence rate of stomach cancer among males and females had an increasing trend and it increased by 2.38 and 0.87 persons every year, respectively. However, after adjusting for previous responses, the random effects Markov model showed an increasing rate of 1.53 and 0.75 for males and females, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study revealed that there are significant differences between different areas of Iran in terms of age-standardized incidence rates of stomach cancer. Our study suggests that a random effects Markov model can adjust for effects of previous. responses.