Impact of International Monetary Fund programs on child health.

Parental education is located at the center of global efforts to improve child health. In a developing-country context, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) plays a crucial role in determining how governments allocate scarce resources to education and public health interventions. Under reforms mandated by IMF structural adjustment programs, it may become harder for parents to reap the benefits of their education due to wage contraction, welfare retrenchment, and generalized social insecurity. This study assesses how the protective effect of education changes under IMF programs, and thus how parents' ability to guard their children's health is affected by structural adjustment. We combine cross-sectional stratified data (countries, 67; children, 1,941,734) from the Demographic and Health Surveys and the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys. The sample represents ∼2.8 billion (about 50%) of the world's population in year 2000. Based on multilevel models, our findings reveal that programs reduce the protective effect of parental education on child health, especially in rural areas. For instance, in the absence of IMF programs, living in an household with educated parents reduces the odds of child malnourishment by 38% [odds ratio (OR), 0.62; 95% CI, 0.66-0.58]; in the presence of programs, this drops to 21% (OR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.86-0.74). In other words, the presence of IMF conditionality decreases the protective effect of parents' education on child malnourishment by no less than 17%. We observe similar adverse effects in sanitation, shelter, and health care access (including immunization), but a beneficial effect in countering water deprivation.

Education and mortality in three Eastern European populations: findings from the PrivMort retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The aim of the study is 2-fold. Firstly, it attempts to investigate the potential impact of major political and economic changes on inequalities in all-cause mortality among men and women with different levels of education in three Eastern European countries. Secondly, to identify changes in contribution of smoking and drinking to educational differences in all-cause mortality. Study covers the period from 1982 to 2013. METHODS: Data were collected in 2013-14 as a part of the PrivMort retrospective cohort study. Participants in Russia, Belarus and Hungary provided information on their educational attainment, health-related behaviors and vital statistics of their close relatives (N = 179 691). Odds ratios for mortality and relative indices of inequality (RII) were estimated for individuals aged 20-65 years, stratifying by three levels of educational attainment: higher, secondary and less than secondary education. RESULTS: Those in lower educational groups were significantly more likely to die, through most time periods and sub-groups. The RII increased over time in all countries and both genders, except for Hungarian men. Alcohol consumption and smoking have increasingly contributed to educational inequalities in mortality during this period. CONCLUSION: Educational inequalities in mortality in these Eastern European countries have increased during recent decades. Smoking and alcohol consumption, two major health-related behaviors, made a significant contribution to these increases in inequality.

Cross-country evidence on the social determinants of the post-socialist mortality crisis in Europe: a review and performance-based hierarchy of variables.

An unprecedented mortality crisis befell the former socialist countries between 1989 and 1995, representing one of the greatest demographic shocks of the period after the Second World War. While it is likely that country-level variation in the post-socialist mortality crisis in Eastern Europe can be explained by a constellation of political and socio-economic factors, no comprehensive review of the existing scholarly attempts at explaining these factors exists. We review 39 cross-national multi-variable peer reviewed studies of social determinants of mortality in post-socialist Europe in order to assess the social factors behind the post-socialist mortality crisis, determine the gaps in the existing literature and to make suggestions for future research. We propose a novel methodology to determine the relative importance of variables based on the ratio of significant to insignificant findings for each variable. The literature identifies inequality, welfare payments, religious composition, democracy, economic performance and unemployment as the leading factors that have a significant influence on mortality outcomes. Existing cross-country studies fail to establish a definitive connection between mortality and diets, drinking patterns, liberalisation, trust, health expenditure and war. We also point out that the level of analysis is not a neutral methodological choice but might influence the results themselves.

How structural adjustment programs affect inequality: A disaggregated analysis of IMF conditionality, 1980-2014.

This article highlights an important yet insufficiently understood international-level determinant of inequality in the developing world: structural adjustment programs by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Studying a panel of 135 countries for the period 1980 to 2014, we examine income inequality using multivariate regression analysis corrected for non-random selection into both IMF programs and associated policy reforms (known as 'conditionality'). We find that, overall, policy reforms mandated by the IMF increase income inequality in borrowing countries. We also test specific pathways linking IMF programs to inequality by disaggregating conditionality by issue area. Our analyses indicate adverse distributional consequences for four policy areas: fiscal policy reforms that restrain government expenditure, external sector reforms stipulating trade and capital account liberalization, financial sector reforms entailing inflation-control measures, and reforms that restrict external debt. These effects occur one year after the incidence of an IMF program, and persist in the medium term. Taken together, our findings suggest that the IMF's recent attention to inequality neglects the multiple ways through which the organization's own policy advice has contributed to inequality in the developing world.

Smoking and Mortality in Eastern Europe: Results From the PrivMort Retrospective Cohort Study of 177 376 Individuals.

Background: The estimated prevalence of smoking and proportion of deaths due to tobacco in Eastern European countries are among the highest in the world. Existing estimates of mortality attributable to smoking in the region are mostly indirect. The aim of this analysis was to calculate the proportion of tobacco-attributed deaths in three Eastern European countries using individual level cohort data. Methods: The PrivMort project established a cohort of relatives of participants in population sample surveys in Russia, Belarus and Hungary. Survey participants provided data on smoking habits and vital statistics of their close relatives between 1982 and 2013. Population attributable risk fractions (PARF) in men (n = 99528) and women (n = 77848) aged 40-79 years were calculated from the prevalence rates of smoking and hazard ratios of mortality for smokers versus non-smokers. Trends in PARF over four 8-year time periods (1982-1989, 1990-1997, 1998-2005, and 2006-2013) were examined. Results: In men in the most recent period (2006-2013), the proportions of deaths attributable to tobacco were 23% in Russia, 22% in Belarus, and 22% in Hungary. The respective estimates in women were lower (2%, 2%, and 13%), possibly due to underestimation of smoking prevalence. PARF estimates have declined slightly since the early 1990s in men but increased in women. Conclusions: Consistently with existing indirect estimates, our results based on individual level cohort data suggest that over one fifth of all deaths in men aged 40-79 years are attributable to tobacco. While these proportions are lower in women, the increasing trend is a major concern. Implications: This is the first large scale, individual-level cohort study that estimated the mortality attributable to tobacco smoking directly in Eastern European population samples. The results confirm previous indirect estimates and show that more than 20% of all deaths in Eastern European men can be attributed to tobacco. The study also confirms the increasing trend in smoking-related deaths among women. These findings emphasize the importance of targeted policy interventions in Eastern European countries.

Ethnicity and place: the geography of diabetes inequalities under a strong welfare state.

Background: The Nordic 'health paradox' designates the seemingly puzzling empirical reality in which, despite the presence of strong welfare policies targeting structural inequalities, distinct health disparities persist in Scandinavian societies. In Norway, previous research has shown that inequalities in diabetes prevalence are particularly salient, notably between ethnic groups. These have often been attributed to lifestyle, socioeconomic factors, or genetics. No previous research has sought to investigate the sociospatial mediation of diabetes inequities. Methods: In this article, we examine the social geography of diabetes in Oslo to examine whether the link between ethnicity and diabetes is confounded by place. We use data from the 2002 Oslo Health Study (n = 17 325) to fit logistic regression models, assessing whether contextual factors, such as the concentration of fast food outlets, predict self-reported diabetes outcomes after controlling for relevant individual level covariates. We also test for spatial autocorrelation in the geographical distribution of diabetes. Results: The findings suggest that the organisation of urban space and the spatial distribution of health-related resources exert an independent effect on diabetes prevalence, controlling for ethnicity and other covariates. Living on the east side of Oslo increases the odds of suffering from diabetes by almost 60%, whilst living in a neighbourhood characterized by a relative concentration of fast food and relative absence of healthy food shops and physical exercise facilities increases the odds by 30%. Conclusion: Spatial context and toxic environments contribute to diabetes inequalities in Oslo, Norway. Future research and policy-making should take the geography of health disparities into account.

Mortality in Transition: Study Protocol of the PrivMort Project, a multilevel convenience cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Previous research using routine data identified rapid mass privatisation as an important driver of mortality crisis following the collapse of Communism in Central and Eastern Europe. However, existing studies on the mortality crisis relying on individual level or routine data cannot assess both distal (societal) and proximal (individual) causes of mortality simultaneously. The aim of the PrivMort Project is to overcome these limitations and to investigate the role of societal factors (particularly rapid mass privatisation) and individual-level factors (e.g. alcohol consumption) in the mortality changes in post-communist countries. METHODS: The PrivMort conducts large-sample surveys in Russia, Belarus and Hungary. The approach is unique in comparing towns that have undergone rapid privatisation of their key industrial enterprises with those that experienced more gradual forms of privatisation, employing a multi-level retrospective cohort design that combines data on the industrial characteristics of the towns, socio-economic descriptions of the communities, settlement-level data, individual socio-economic characteristics, and individuals' health behaviour. It then incorporates data on mortality of different types of relatives of survey respondents, employing a retrospective demographic approach, which enables linkage of historical patterns of mortality to exposures, based on experiences of family members. By May 2016, 63,073 respondents provided information on themselves and 205,607 relatives, of whom 102,971 had died. The settlement-level dataset contains information on 539 settlements and 12,082 enterprises in these settlements in Russia, 96 settlements and 271 enterprises in Belarus, and 52 settlement and 148 enterprises in Hungary. DISCUSSION: In addition to reinforcing existing evidence linking smoking, hazardous drinking and unemployment to mortality, the PrivMort dataset will investigate the variation in transition experiences for individual respondents and their families across settlements characterized by differing contextual factors, including industrial characteristics, simultaneously providing information about how excess mortality is distributed across settlements with various privatization strategies.

The persistence of cliques in the post-communist state. The case of deniability in drug reimbursement policy in Poland.

This article explores a key question in political sociology: Can post-communist policy-making be described with classical theories of the Western state or do we need a theory of the specificity of the post-communist state? In so doing, we consider Janine Wedel's clique theory, concerned with informal social actors and processes in post-communist transition. We conducted a case study of drug reimbursement policy in Poland, using 109 stakeholder interviews, official documents and media coverage. Drawing on 'sensitizing concepts' from Wedel's theory, especially the notion of 'deniability', we developed an explanation of why Poland's reimbursement policy combined suboptimal outcomes, procedural irregularities with limited accountability of key stakeholders. We argue that deniability was created through four main mechanisms: (1) blurred boundaries between different types of state authority allowing for the dispersion of blame for controversial policy decisions; (2) bridging different sectors by 'institutional nomads', who often escaped existing conflicts of interest regulations; (3) institutional nomads' 'flexible' methods of influence premised on managing roles and representations; and (4) coordination of resources and influence by elite cliques monopolizing exclusive policy expertise. Overall, the greatest power over drug reimbursement was often associated with lowest accountability. We suggest, therefore, that the clique theory can be generalized from its home domain of explanation in foreign aid and privatizations to more technologically advanced policies in Poland and other post-communist countries. This conclusion is not identical, however, with arguing the uniqueness of the post-communist state. Rather, we show potential for using Wedel's account to analyse policy-making in Western democracies and indicate scope for its possible integration with the classical theories of the state.

Islamist insurgency and the war against polio: a cross-national analysis of the political determinants of polio.

BACKGROUND: There is widespread agreement that civil war obstructs efforts to eradicate polio. It is suggested that Islamist insurgents have a particularly negative effect on vaccination programmes, but this claim is controversial. METHODS: We analyse cross-national data for the period 2003-14 using negative binomial regressions to investigate the relationship between Islamist and non-Islamist insurgency and the global distribution of polio. The dependent variable is the annual number of polio cases in a country according to the WHO. Insurgency is operationalized as armed conflict between the state and an insurgent organization resulting in ≥25 battle deaths per year according to the Uppsala Conflict Data Programme. Insurgencies are divided into Islamist and non-Islamist insurgencies. We control for other possible explanatory variables. RESULTS: Islamist insurgency did not have a significant positive relationship with polio throughout the whole period. But in the past few years - since the assassination of Osama bin Laden in 2011- Islamist insurgency has had a strong effect on where polio cases occur. The evidence for a relationship between non-Islamist insurgency and polio is less compelling and where there is a relationship it is either spurious or driven by ecological fallacy. CONCLUSIONS: Only particular forms of internal armed conflict - those prosecuted by Islamist insurgents - explain the current global distribution of polio. The variation over time in the relationship between Islamist insurgency and polio suggests that Islamist insurgent's hostility to polio vaccinations programmes is not the result of their theology, as the core tenets of Islam have not changed over the period of the study. Rather, our analysis indicates that it is a plausibly a reaction to the counterinsurgency strategies used against Islamist insurgents. The assassination of Osama bin Laden and the use of drone strikes seemingly vindicated Islamist insurgents' suspicions that immunization drives are a cover for espionage activities.

How do economic crises affect migrants' risk of infectious disease? A systematic-narrative review.

BACKGROUND: It is not well understood how economic crises affect infectious disease incidence and prevalence, particularly among vulnerable groups. Using a susceptible-infected-recovered framework, we systematically reviewed literature on the impact of the economic crises on infectious disease risks in migrants in Europe, focusing principally on HIV, TB, hepatitis and other STIs. METHODS: We conducted two searches in PubMed/Medline, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Google Scholar, websites of key organizations and grey literature to identify how economic changes affect migrant populations and infectious disease. We perform a narrative synthesis in order to map critical pathways and identify hypotheses for subsequent research. RESULTS: The systematic review on links between economic crises and migrant health identified 653 studies through database searching; only seven met the inclusion criteria. Fourteen items were identified through further searches. The systematic review on links between economic crises and infectious disease identified 480 studies through database searching; 19 met the inclusion criteria. Eight items were identified through further searches. The reviews show that migrant populations in Europe appear disproportionately at risk of specific infectious diseases, and that economic crises and subsequent responses have tended to exacerbate such risks. Recessions lead to unemployment, impoverishment and other risk factors that can be linked to the transmissibility of disease among migrants. Austerity measures that lead to cuts in prevention and treatment programmes further exacerbate infectious disease risks among migrants. Non-governmental health service providers occasionally stepped in to cater to specific populations that include migrants. CONCLUSIONS: There is evidence that migrants are especially vulnerable to infectious disease during economic crises. Ring-fenced funding of prevention programs, including screening and treatment, is important for addressing this vulnerability.

Newborn blood spot screening for sickle cell disease by using tandem mass spectrometry: implementation of a protocol to identify only the disease states of sickle cell disease.

BACKGROUND: The currently recommended technologies of HPLC and isoelectric focusing for newborn blood spot screening for sickle cell disease (SCD) identify both the disease and carrier states, resulting in large numbers of infants being followed up unnecessarily. Analysis of blood spot tryptic peptides performed by using tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS) is an alternative technology to detect hemoglobin (Hb) variant disorders. METHODS: We analyzed 2154 residual newborn blood spots and 675 newborn blood spots from infants with Hb variants by using MS/MS after trypsin digestion. Screening cutoffs were developed by using the ratio between the variant peptide-to-wild-type peptide abundance for HbS, C, D(Punjab), O(Arab), Lepore, and E peptides. A postanalytical data analysis protocol was developed using these cutoffs to detect only the disease states of SCD and not to identify carrier states. A parallel study of 13 249 newborn blood spots from a high-prevalence SCD area were analyzed by both MS/MS and HPLC. RESULTS: Screening cutoffs developed distinguished the infants with the disease states of SCD, infants who were carriers of SCD, and infants with normal Hb. In the parallel study no false-negative results were identified, and all clinically relevant cases were correctly identified using the MS/MS protocol. Unblinding the data revealed a total of 328 carrier infants that were successfully excluded by the protocol. CONCLUSIONS: The screening protocol developed correctly identified infants with the disease states of SCD. Furthermore, large numbers of sickle cell carrier infants were successfully not identified, thereby avoiding unnecessary follow-up testing and referral for genetic counseling.

The political economy of farmers' suicides in India: indebted cash-crop farmers with marginal landholdings explain state-level variation in suicide rates.

BACKGROUND: A recent Lancet article reported the first reliable estimates of suicide rates in India. National-level suicide rates are among the highest in the world, but suicide rates vary sharply between states and the causes of these differences are disputed. We test whether differences in the structure of agricultural production explain inter-state variation in suicides rates. This hypothesis is supported by a large number of qualitative studies, which argue that the liberalization of the agricultural sector in the early-1990s led to an agrarian crisis and that consequently farmers with certain socioeconomic characteristics-cash crops cultivators, with marginal landholdings, and debts-are at particular risk of committing suicide. The recent Lancet study, however, contends that there is no evidence to support this hypothesis. METHODS: We report scatter diagrams and linear regression models that combine the new state-level suicide rate estimates and the proportion of marginal farmers, cash crop cultivation, and indebted farmers. RESULTS: When we include all variables in the regression equation there is a significant positive relationship between the percentage of marginal farmers, cash crop production, and indebted farmers, and suicide rates. This model accounts for almost 75% of inter-state variation in suicide rates. If the proportion of marginal farmers, cash crops, or indebted farmers were reduced by 1%, the suicide rate--suicides per 100,000 per year--would fall by 0 · 437, 0 · 518 or 0 · 549 respectively, when all other variables are held constant. CONCLUSIONS: Even if the Indian state is unable to enact land reforms due to the power of local elites, interventions to stabilize the price of cash crops and relieve indebted farmers may be effective at reducing suicide rates.

Hazardous alcohol consumption in slow- and fast-privatized Russian industrial towns.

Hazardous drinking, defined as the consumption of homemade, unofficially made alcohol and non-beverages, is prevalent and accounts for a high proportion of alcohol-related deaths in Russia. Individual-level characteristics are important explanations of hazardous drinking, but they are unlikely to explain spatial variation in this type of alcohol consumption. Areas that attracted insufficient attention in the research of hazardous drinking are the legacy of industrialization and the speed of economic reforms, mainly through the privatization policy of major enterprises in the 1990s. Applying mixed-effects logistic regressions to a unique dataset from 30 industrial towns in the European part of Russia, we find that in addition to individual-level characteristics such as gender, age, marital status, education, social isolation, labor market status, and material deprivation, the types of towns where informants' relatives resided such as industrial structure and speed of privatization also accounted for the variance in hazardous alcohol consumption among both male and female populations of the analyzed towns.

Initially High Correlation between Air Pollution and COVID-19 Mortality Declined to Zero as the Pandemic Progressed: There Is No Evidence for a Causal Link between Air Pollution and COVID-19 Vulnerability.

Wu et al. found a strong positive association between cumulative daily county-level COVID-19 mortality and long-term average PM2.5 concentrations for data up until September 2020. We replicated the results of Wu et al. and extended the analysis up until May 2022. The association between PM2.5 concentration and cumulative COVID-19 mortality fell sharply after September 2020. Using the data available from Wu et al.'s "updated_data" branch up until May 2022, we found that the effect of a 1 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 was associated with only a +0.603% mortality difference. The 95% CI of this difference was between -0.560% and +1.78%, narrow bounds that include zero, with the upper bound far below the Wu et al. estimate. Short-term trends in the initial spread of COVID-19, not a long-term epidemiologic association, caused an early correlation between air pollution and COVID-19 mortality.

Structural adjustment programmes and infectious disease mortality.

International financial organisations like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) play a central role in shaping the developmental trajectories of fiscally distressed countries through their conditional lending schemes, known as 'structural adjustment programmes'. These programmes entail wide-ranging domestic policy reforms that influence local health and welfare systems. Using novel panel data from 187 countries between 1990 and 2017 and an instrumental variable technique, we find that IMF programmes lead to over 70 excess deaths from respiratory diseases and tuberculosis per 100,000 population and that IMF-mandated privatisation reforms lead to over 90 excess deaths per 100,000 population. Thus structural adjustment programmes, as currently designed and implemented, are harmful to population health and increase global infectious disease burdens.

Mass incarceration can explain population increases in TB and multidrug-resistant TB in European and central Asian countries.

Several microlevel studies have pinpointed prisons as an important site for tuberculosis (TB) and multidrug-resistant TB in European and central Asian countries. To date, no comparative analyses have examined whether rises in incarceration rates can account for puzzling differences in TB trends among overall populations. Using longitudinal TB and cross-sectional multidrug-resistant TB data for 26 eastern European and central Asian countries, we examined whether and to what degree increases in incarceration account for differences in population TB and multidrug-resistant TB burdens. We find that each percentage point increase in incarceration rates relates to an increased TB incidence of 0.34% (population attributable risk, 95% C.I.: 0.10-0.58%, P < 0.01), after controlling for TB infrastructure; HIV prevalence; and several surveillance, economic, demographic, and political indicators. Net increases in incarceration account for a 20.5% increase in TB incidence or nearly three-fifths of the average total increase in TB incidence in the countries studied from 1991 to 2002. Although the number of prisoners is a significant determinant of differences in TB incidence and multidrug-resistant TB prevalence among countries, the rate of prison growth is a larger determinant of these outcomes, and its effect is exacerbated but not confounded by HIV. Differences in incarceration rates are a major determinant of differences in population TB outcomes among eastern European and central Asian countries, and treatment expansion alone does not appear to resolve the effect of mass incarceration on TB incidence.

Punitive Social Policy and Vital Inequality.

Geographical inequalities in life and death are among the world's most pronounced in the United States. However, the driving forces behind this macroscopic variation in population health outcomes remain surprisingly understudied, both empirically and theoretically. The present article steps into this breach by assessing a number of theoretically informed hypotheses surrounding the underlying causes of such spatial heterogeneity. Above and beyond a range of usual suspects, such as poverty, unemployment, and ethno-racial disparities, we find that a hitherto neglected explanans is prison incarceration. In particular, through the use of previously unavailable county-level panel data and a compound instrumentation technique suited to isolating exogenous treatment variation, high imprisonment rates are shown to substantially increase the population-wide risk of premature death. Our findings contribute to the political economy of population health by relating the rise of the carceral state to the amplification of geographically anchored unequal life chances.