COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2 BA.1/BA.2 lineages among adults and adolescents in a multicentre primary care study, Europe, December 2021 to June 2022.

BackgroundScarce European data in early 2021 suggested lower vaccine effectiveness (VE) against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron lineages than previous variants.AimWe aimed to estimate primary series (PS) and first booster VE against symptomatic BA.1/BA.2 infection and investigate potential biases.MethodsThis European test-negative multicentre study tested primary care patients with acute respiratory symptoms for SARS-CoV-2 in the BA.1/BA.2-dominant period. We estimated PS and booster VE among adults and adolescents (PS only) for all products combined and for Comirnaty alone, by time since vaccination, age and chronic condition. We investigated potential bias due to correlation between COVID-19 and influenza vaccination and explored effect modification and confounding by prior SARS-CoV-2 infection.ResultsAmong adults, PS VE was 37% (95% CI: 24-47%) overall and 60% (95% CI: 44-72%), 43% (95% CI: 26-55%) and 29% (95% CI: 13-43%) < 90, 90-179 and ≥ 180 days post vaccination, respectively. Booster VE was 42% (95% CI: 32-51%) overall and 56% (95% CI: 47-64%), 22% (95% CI: 2-38%) and 3% (95% CI: -78% to 48%), respectively. Primary series VE was similar among adolescents. Restricting analyses to Comirnaty had little impact. Vaccine effectiveness was higher among older adults. There was no signal of bias due to correlation between COVID-19 and influenza vaccination. Confounding by previous infection was low, but sample size precluded definite assessment of effect modification.ConclusionPrimary series and booster VE against symptomatic infection with BA.1/BA.2 ranged from 37% to 42%, with similar waning post vaccination. Comprehensive data on previous SARS-CoV-2 infection would help disentangle vaccine- and infection-induced immunity.

Seroprevalence of Specific SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies during Omicron BA.5 Wave, Portugal, April-June 2022.

After the rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 BA.5 Omicron lineage in Portugal, we developed a seroepidemiologic survey based on a sample of 3,825 residents. Results indicated that from April 27 through June 8, 2022, the estimated seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid or spike IgG was 95.8%, which indicates a high level of protection.

Comparative Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccines in Preventing Infections and Disease Progression from SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.5 and BA.2, Portugal.

We estimated comparative primary and booster vaccine effectiveness (VE) of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.5 and BA.2 lineages against infection and disease progression. During April-June 2022, we implemented a case-case and cohort study and classified lineages using whole-genome sequencing or spike gene target failure. For the case-case study, we estimated the adjusted odds ratios (aORs) of vaccination using a logistic regression. For the cohort study, we estimated VE against disease progression using a penalized logistic regression. We observed no reduced VE for primary (aOR 1.07 [95% CI 0.93-1.23]) or booster (aOR 0.96 [95% CI 0.84-1.09]) vaccination against BA.5 infection. Among BA.5 case-patients, booster VE against progression to hospitalization was lower than that among BA.2 case-patients (VE 77% [95% CI 49%-90%] vs. VE 93% [95% CI 86%-97%]). Although booster vaccination is less effective against BA.5 than against BA.2, it offers substantial protection against progression from BA.5 infection to severe disease.

Vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 hospitalisation in adults (≥ 20 years) during Alpha- and Delta-dominant circulation: I-MOVE-COVID-19 and VEBIS SARI VE networks, Europe, 2021.

IntroductionTwo large multicentre European hospital networks have estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19 since 2021.AimWe aimed to measure VE against PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 in hospitalised severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) patients ≥ 20 years, combining data from these networks during Alpha (March-June)- and Delta (June-December)-dominant periods, 2021.MethodsForty-six participating hospitals across 14 countries follow a similar generic protocol using the test-negative case-control design. We defined complete primary series vaccination (PSV) as two doses of a two-dose or one of a single-dose vaccine ≥ 14 days before onset.ResultsWe included 1,087 cases (538 controls) and 1,669 cases (1,442 controls) in the Alpha- and Delta-dominant periods, respectively. During the Alpha period, VE against hospitalisation with SARS-CoV2 for complete Comirnaty PSV was 85% (95% CI: 69-92) overall and 75% (95% CI: 42-90) in those aged ≥ 80 years. During the Delta period, among SARI patients ≥ 20 years with symptom onset ≥ 150 days from last PSV dose, VE for complete Comirnaty PSV was 54% (95% CI: 18-74). Among those receiving Comirnaty PSV and mRNA booster (any product) ≥ 150 days after last PSV dose, VE was 91% (95% CI: 57-98). In time-since-vaccination analysis, complete all-product PSV VE was > 90% in those with their last dose < 90 days before onset; ≥ 70% in those 90-179 days before onset.ConclusionsOur results from this EU multi-country hospital setting showed that VE for complete PSV alone was higher in the Alpha- than the Delta-dominant period, and addition of a first booster dose during the latter period increased VE to over 90%.

Vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 hospitalisation in adults (≥ 20 years) during Omicron-dominant circulation: I-MOVE-COVID-19 and VEBIS SARI VE networks, Europe, 2021 to 2022.

IntroductionThe I-MOVE-COVID-19 and VEBIS hospital networks have been measuring COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) in participating European countries since early 2021.AimWe aimed to measure VE against PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 in patients ≥ 20 years hospitalised with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) from December 2021 to July 2022 (Omicron-dominant period).MethodsIn both networks, 46 hospitals (13 countries) follow a similar test-negative case-control protocol. We defined complete primary series vaccination (PSV) and first booster dose vaccination as last dose of either vaccine received ≥ 14 days before symptom onset (stratifying first booster into received < 150 and ≥ 150 days after last PSV dose). We measured VE overall, by vaccine category/product, age group and time since first mRNA booster dose, adjusting by site as a fixed effect, and by swab date, age, sex, and presence/absence of at least one commonly collected chronic condition.ResultsWe included 2,779 cases and 2,362 controls. The VE of all vaccine products combined against hospitalisation for laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 was 43% (95% CI: 29-54) for complete PSV (with last dose received ≥ 150 days before onset), while it was 59% (95% CI: 51-66) after addition of one booster dose. The VE was 85% (95% CI: 78-89), 70% (95% CI: 61-77) and 36% (95% CI: 17-51) for those with onset 14-59 days, 60-119 days and 120-179 days after booster vaccination, respectively.ConclusionsOur results suggest that, during the Omicron period, observed VE against SARI hospitalisation improved with first mRNA booster dose, particularly for those having symptom onset < 120 days after first booster dose.

Monitoring COVID-19 and Influenza: The Added Value of a Severe Acute Respiratory Infection Surveillance System in Portugal.

Background: Severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) surveillance is recommended to assess the severity of respiratory infections disease. In 2021, the National Institute of Health Doutor Ricardo Jorge, in collaboration with two general hospitals, implemented a SARI sentinel surveillance system based on electronic health registries. We describe its application in the 2021/2022 season and compare the evolution of SARI cases with the COVID-19 and influenza activity in two regions of Portugal. Methods: The main outcome of interest was the weekly incidence of patients hospitalized due to SARI, reported within the surveillance system. SARI cases were defined as patients containing ICD-10 codes for influenza-like illness, cardiovascular diagnosis, respiratory diagnosis, and respiratory infection in their primary admission diagnosis. Independent variables included weekly COVID-19 and influenza incidence in the North and Lisbon and Tagus Valley regions. Pearson and cross-correlations between SARI cases, COVID-19 incidence and influenza incidence were estimated. Results: A high correlation between SARI cases or hospitalizations due to respiratory infection and COVID-19 incidence was obtained (ρ = 0.78 and ρ = 0.82, respectively). SARI cases detected the COVID-19 epidemic peak a week earlier. A weak correlation was observed between SARI and influenza cases (ρ = -0.20). However, if restricted to hospitalizations due to cardiovascular diagnosis, a moderate correlation was observed (ρ = 0.37). Moreover, hospitalizations due to cardiovascular diagnosis detected the increase of influenza epidemic activity a week earlier. Conclusion: In the 2021/2022 season, the Portuguese SARI sentinel surveillance system pilot was able to early detect the COVID-19 epidemic peak and the increase of influenza activity. Although cardiovascular manifestations associated with influenza infection are known, more seasons of surveillance are needed, to confirm the potential use of cardiovascular hospitalizations as an indicator of influenza activity.

Comparative Effectiveness of Coronavirus Vaccine in Preventing Breakthrough Infections among Vaccinated Persons Infected with Delta and Alpha Variants.

We developed a case-case study to compare mRNA vaccine effectiveness against Delta versus Alpha coronavirus variants. We used data on 2,097 case-patients with PCR-positive severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infections reported in Portugal during May-July 2021. We estimated the odds of vaccine breakthrough infection in Delta-infected versus Alpha-infected patients by using conditional logistic regression adjusted for age group and sex and matched by the week of diagnosis. We compared reverse-transcription PCR cycle threshold values by vaccination status and variant as an indirect measure of viral load. We found significantly higher odds of vaccine breakthrough infection in Delta-infected patients than in Alpha-infected patients (odds ratio 1.96 [95% CI 1.22-3.14]), suggesting lower effectiveness of the mRNA vaccines in preventing infection with the Delta variant. We estimated lower mean cycle threshold values for the Delta cases (mean difference -2.10 [95% CI -2.74 to -1.47]), suggesting higher infectiousness than the Alpha variant.

Impact of stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions applied during the second and third COVID-19 epidemic waves in Portugal, 9 November 2020 to 10 February 2021: an ecological study.

BackgroundNon-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented worldwide to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2.AimTo evaluate the impact of tiered NPIs and a nationwide lockdown on reduction of COVID-19 incidence during the second and third epidemic waves in Portugal.MethodsSurveillance data on laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases were used to conduct an interrupted time series analysis to estimate changes in daily incidence during a second wave tiered NPI period (9 November-18 December 2020), and a third wave lockdown period without (15-21 January 2021) and with school closure (22 January-10 February 2021).ResultsSignificant changes in trends were observed for the overall incidence rate; declining trends were observed for tiered NPIs (-1.9% per day; incidence rate ratio (IRR): 0.981; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.973-0.989) and a lockdown period without (-3.4% per day; IRR: 0.966; 95% CI: 0.935-0.998) and with school closure (-10.3% per day, IRR: 0.897; 95% CI: 0.846-0.951). Absolute effects associated with tiered NPIs and a lockdown on a subsequent 14-day period yielded 137 cases and 437 cases per 100,000 population potentially averted, respectively.ConclusionOur results indicate that tiered NPIs implemented during the second wave caused a decline in COVID-19 incidence, although modest. Moreover, a third wave lockdown without school closure was effective in reducing COVID-19 incidence, but the addition of school closure provided the strongest effect. These findings emphasise the importance of early and assertive decision-making to control the pandemic.

COVID-19 mRNA vaccine effectiveness (second and first booster dose) against hospitalisation and death during Omicron BA.5 circulation: cohort study based on electronic health records, Portugal, May to July 2022.

We measured vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19-related severe outcomes in elderly people in Portugal between May and July 2022. In ≥ 80 year-olds, the second booster dose VE was 81% (95% CI: 75-85) and 82% (95% CI: 77-85), respectively, against COVID-19-related hospitalisation and death. The first booster dose VE was 63% (95% CI: 55-70) in ≥ 80 year-olds and 74% (95% CI: 66-80) in 60-79 year-olds against hospitalisation, and 63% (95% CI: 57-69) and 65% (95% CI: 54-74) against death.

Estimation of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation in individuals aged ≥ 65 years using electronic health registries; a pilot study in four EU/EEA countries, October 2021 to March 2022.

By employing a common protocol and data from electronic health registries in Denmark, Navarre (Spain), Norway and Portugal, we estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) against hospitalisation due to COVID-19 in individuals aged ≥ 65 years old, without previous documented infection, between October 2021 and March 2022. VE was higher in 65-79-year-olds compared with ≥ 80-year-olds and in those who received a booster compared with those who were primary vaccinated. VE remained high (ca 80%) between ≥ 12 and < 24 weeks after the first booster administration, and after Omicron became dominant.

No effect modification of influenza virus vaccine effectiveness by age or chronic condition was observed in the 2010/11 to 2017/18 seasons.

PURPOSE: Most European influenza vaccine strategies target individuals at higher risk of complications, which include, among others, individuals aged ≥65 years and with chronic conditions. These individuals not only have a high-risk of post-infection complications but also could have lower capacity of acquiring adequate vaccine-induced protection. As such, chronic conditions and age could modify the effect of vaccines. This study aimed at assessing the potential effect modification of influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) by age and chronic conditions. METHODS: We used eight-season data from the Portuguese vaccine effectiveness study. Every season, physicians at primary care units recruited patients with influenza-like illness. Clinical data and swabs were collected for Reverse Transverse Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) detection of influenza. Trivalent inactivated IVE was estimated as 1 - odds ratio (OR) of being vaccinated in cases (RT-PCR positive for influenza) versus negative controls. ORs were obtained using a multivariable conditional logistic regression model, paired by week of onset within each season. Confounders were assessed by designing a specific causal diagram. Age (< 65 or ≥65 years) and chronic conditions (diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic renal disease, chronic hepatic disease, obesity, chronic respiratory disease, and congenital or acquired immunodeficiency) were studied as effect modifiers by including an interaction term in the regression models. Significance was established at 5%. RESULTS: Point estimates indicate a higher IVE in the chronic condition strata compared to that in the no chronic condition strata. Regarding age, different results were obtained considering the virus type and (sub)type. When comparing the ≥65 years with the <65 years of age strata, we observed a higher IVE against A(H1N1)pdm09, an equal IVE against A(H3N2) and a lower IVE against B virus. However, all interaction terms were statistically insignificant, and this may be due to a small sample size. CONCLUSION: The potential effect modification of age or chronic condition was not observed within our study.

mRNA vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19-related hospitalisations and deaths in older adults: a cohort study based on data linkage of national health registries in Portugal, February to August 2021.

Through deterministic data linkage of health registries, mRNA vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19-related hospitalisations and deaths was measured in 1,880,351 older adults. VE against hospitalisations was 94% (95% confidence interval (CI): 88-97) and 82% (95% CI: 72-89) for those 65-79 and ≥ 80 years old, with no evidence of waning 98 days after dose two. VE against mortality was 96% (95% CI: 92-98) and 81% (95% CI: 74-87) in these two age groups.

Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in adults aged 65 years and older in primary care: I-MOVE-COVID-19 project, Europe, December 2020 to May 2021.

We measured COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection at primary care/outpatient level among adults ≥ 65 years old using a multicentre test-negative design in eight European countries. We included 592 SARS-CoV-2 cases and 4,372 test-negative controls in the main analysis. The VE was 62% (95% CI: 45-74) for one dose only and 89% (95% CI: 79-94) for complete vaccination. COVID-19 vaccines provide good protection against COVID-19 presentation at primary care/outpatient level, particularly among fully vaccinated individuals.

Healthcare use in patients with multimorbidity.

BACKGROUND: The existence of multiple chronic conditions in the same patient is a public health problem increasingly recognized as relevant to health systems. Individuals with multimorbidity have additional health needs, which imply a heavy burden in healthcare use. It is estimated that between 70% and 80% of the total health expenditure is used with chronic conditions. Patients with multimorbidity are responsible for up to 75% of primary care appointments. These patients are also high hospital users, with up to 14.6 times more risk of hospitalization. METHODS: This study analyses the association between healthcare use and multimorbidity in the Portuguese population aged 25-74 years old. The association between socioeconomic variables and healthcare use was studied, based on data from the first Portuguese Health Examination Survey using a logistic regression model, stratified by sex and adjusted for socioeconomic confounding variables. RESULTS: In patients with multimorbidity, there was a greater use of primary healthcare consultations, medical or surgical specialist consultations and hospitalizations. An association was established between female, older age groups and lower educational levels, and increased healthcare use. When adjusted to socioeconomic variables, the likelihood of using healthcare services can be as high as 3.5 times, when compared to patients without chronic conditions. CONCLUSION: Our results show a greater healthcare use in multimorbidity patients, both in primary and hospital care. The availability of scientific evidence regarding the use of healthcare services by multimorbidity patients may support health policy changes, which could allow a more efficient management of these patients.

Understanding influenza vaccination among Portuguese elderly: the social ecological framework.

This study intended to identify and quantify the social ecological model (SEM) levels associated to seasonal IV uptake in the Portuguese elderly population. Data from the 2014 National Health Survey was restricted to individuals aged 65+ years (n = 5669). Twenty-three independent variables were allocated to the SEM levels: individual, interpersonal, organizational, community and policy. Sex stratified and age adjusted analysis using Poisson regression were performed for each level and for a fitted full model. Relative reduction in pseudo R magnitude measured marginal contribution of each level. For men and women, older groups (85+ vs. 65-69; men, PR = 1.59 and women, PR = 1.56); having 3+ chronic conditions (men, PR = 1.39 and women, PR = 1.35); previous 4 weeks GP and outpatient visits were associated to higher IV uptake. For men, only 2 SEM levels were associated (individual and organizational) while for women the community level was also relevant. Main marginal contribution came from individual (17.9% and 16.3%) and organizational (30.7% and 22.7%) levels. This study highlights the importance of individual characteristics, access and use of health care services for the IV uptake and the sex differential behaviour.

The first Portuguese National Health Examination Survey (2015): design, planning and implementation.

BACKGROUND: In Health Examination Surveys interview information is complemented with objective information, providing more accurate indicators than self-reported data. We report the study design, planning and implementation of the first Portuguese Health Examination Survey (INSEF). METHODS: INSEF was a cross-sectional population-based study representative at regional and national level. Individuals aged between 25 and 74 years old, residing in Portugal were selected from the national health users' registry through multi-stage stratified probabilistic sampling. Sample size was set at 4200 individuals. Data was collected in primary care units and included blood pressure, height, weight, hip and waist measurements, blood collection for lipid profile, HbA1c and blood count and a general health questionnaire. European HES procedures were followed. RESULTS: A total of 4911 individuals agreed to participate (43.9% participation rate). Participation rate varied by region, sex and age group, being lower in Lisbon and Tagus Valley (32.8%), for men (41.8%) and for those aged 25-34 years old (36%). CONCLUSIONS: INSEF has set up an experienced national and regional structure for HES implementation. Nationally representative quality epidemiological data is now available for public health monitoring, planning and research.

Elder abuse victimization patterns: latent class analysis using perpetrators and abusive behaviours.

BACKGROUND: Research on elder abuse has defined it as a multidimensional construct that encompasses a set of different abusive behaviours, victims, perpetrators and settings. The array of possible elder abuse configurations is difficult to capture. This study sought to identify victimization patterns that represent distinct elder abuse configurations based on specific abusive behaviours and on the relationship with the perpetrator; it also sought to determine the association between these latent classes with victims' characteristics. METHOD: Data comes from two elder abuse surveys: a representative sample of community-dwelling adults and a convenience sample of older adults reporting elder abuse to four state and NGOs institutions. Latent Class Analysis (LCA) was used to categorize victimization in the population-based (N = 245) and in the victims' sample (N = 510) using 7 items measuring physical, psychological and financial abuse, and appointed perpetrators. Association tests were conducted to determine differences and similarities of victims' characteristics between the different obtained classes. RESULTS: The LCA procedure identified six different latent classes of victimization experiences in each of the samples, which were statistically and plausibly distinct. In the population-based survey: verbal abuse by others (29%); psychological abuse from children/grandchildren (18%); overlooked by others (18%); stolen by others (15%); verbal Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) (14%) and physical and psychological IPV (6%). In the victims' survey: physical abuse by children/grandchildren (29%); physical IPV (26%); psychological abuse by children/grandchildren (18%); polyvictimization by others (16%); physical abuse by others (6%) and physical and psychological IPV (4%). In the victims survey the 6 groups significantly differ in age, gender, civil status, living arrangements, perceived social support and functional status. CONCLUSIONS: The results support the possibility of the multidimensionality of elder abuse not being accounted by the "classical" abuse typologies. Elder abuse victims seeking help may represent a distinct group from that included in population-based prevalence studies. The appointed perpetrators may be the most meaningful and relevant aspect in distinguishing victimization experiences. Further research is needed to develop tailored interventions to specific elder abuse cases and enhance successful outcomes.

Impact of national influenza vaccination strategy in severe influenza outcomes among the high-risk Portuguese population.

BACKGROUND: All aged individuals with a chronic condition and those with 65 and more years are at increased risk of severe influenza post-infection complications. There is limited research on cases averted by the yearly vaccination programs in high-risk individuals. The objective was to estimate the impact of trivalent seasonal influenza vaccination on averted hospitalizations and death among the high-risk population in Portugal. METHODS: The impact of trivalent seasonal influenza vaccination was estimated using vaccine coverage, vaccine effectiveness and the number of influenza-related hospitalizations and deaths. The number of averted events (NAE), prevented fraction (PF) and number needed to vaccinate (NVN) were estimated for seasons 2014/15 to 2016/17. RESULTS: The vaccination strategy averted on average approximately 1833 hospitalizations and 383 deaths per season. Highest NAE was observed in the ≥65 years population (85% of hospitalizations and 95% deaths) and in the 2016/17 season (1957 hospitalizations and 439 deaths). On average, seasonal vaccination prevented 21% of hospitalizations in the population aged 65 and more, and 18.5% in the population with chronic conditions. The vaccination also prevented 29% and 19.5% of deaths in each group of the high-risk population. It would be needed to vaccinate 3360 high-risk individuals, to prevent one hospitalization and 60,471 high-risk individuals to prevent one death. CONCLUSION: The yearly influenza vaccination campaigns had a sustained positive benefit for the high-risk population, reducing hospitalizations and deaths. These results can support public health plans toward increased vaccine coverage in high-risk groups.

Differential self-report error by socioeconomic status in hypertension and hypercholesterolemia: INSEF 2015 study.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to compare self-reported and examination-based prevalence of hypertension and hypercholesterolemia in Portugal in 2015 and to identify factors associated with the measurement error in self-reports. METHODS: We used data from the Portuguese National Health Examination Survey (n = 4911), that combines personal interview, blood collection and, physical examination. Sensitivity and specificity of self-reported hypertension and hypercholesterolemia were calculated. Poisson regression was used to estimate prevalence ratios (PRs) of underreport of hypertension and hypercholesterolemia according to sex, age, socioeconomic status (education and income) and general practitioner (GP) consultation in the past year. RESULTS: Sensitivity of self-reports was 69.8% for hypertension and 38.2% for hypercholesterolemia. Underreport of hypertension was associated with male gender (PR = 1.54), lack of GP consultation (PR = 1.70) and being 25-44 years old (PR = 2.45) or 45-54 years old (PR = 2.37). Underreport of hypercholesterolemia was associated with lack of GP consultation (PR = 1.15), younger age (PR = 1.83 for 25-44 age group and PR = 1.52 for 45-54 age group), secondary (PR = 1.30) and higher (PR = 1.27) education. CONCLUSION: Self-reported data underestimate prevalence of hypertension and hypercholesterolemia. Magnitude of measurement error in self-reports varies by health conditions and population characteristics. Adding objective measurements to self-reported questionnaires improve data accuracy allowing better understanding of socioeconomic inequalities in health.

Impact of influenza vaccination programmes among the elderly population on primary care, Portugal, Spain and the Netherlands: 2015/16 to 2017/18 influenza seasons.

BackgroundTo increase the acceptability of influenza vaccine, it is important to quantify the overall benefits of the vaccination programme.AimTo assess the impact of influenza vaccination in Portugal, Spain and the Netherlands, we estimated the number of medically attended influenza-confirmed cases (MAICC) in primary care averted in the seasons 2015/16 to 2017/18 among those ≥ 65 years.MethodsWe used an ecological approach to estimate vaccination impact. We compared the number of observed MAICC (n) to the estimated number that would have occurred without the vaccination programme (N). To estimate N, we used: (i) MAICC estimated from influenza surveillance systems, (ii) vaccine coverage, (iii) pooled (sub)type-specific influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates for seasons 2015/16 to 2017/18, weighted by the proportion of virus circulation in each season and country. We estimated the number of MAICC averted (NAE) and the prevented fraction (PF) by the vaccination programme.ResultsThe annual average of NAE in the population ≥ 65 years was 33, 58 and 204 MAICC per 100,000 in Portugal, Spain and the Netherlands, respectively. On average, influenza vaccination prevented 10.7%, 10.9% and 14.2% of potential influenza MAICC each season in these countries. The lowest PF was in 2016/17 (4.9-6.1%) with an NAE ranging from 24 to 69 per 100,000.ConclusionsOur results suggest that influenza vaccination programmes reduced a substantial number of MAICC. Together with studies on hospitalisations and deaths averted by influenza vaccination programmes, this will contribute to the evaluation of the impact of vaccination strategies and strengthen public health communication.