Cost-effectiveness of approaches to cervical cancer screening in Malawi: comparison of frequencies, lesion treatment techniques, and risk-stratified approaches.

BACKGROUND: Recently-updated global guidelines for cervical cancer screening incorporated new technologies-most significantly, the inclusion of HPV DNA detection as a primary screening test-but leave many implementation decisions at countries' discretion. We sought to develop recommendations for Malawi as a test case since it has the second-highest cervical cancer burden globally and high HIV prevalence. We incorporated updated epidemiologic data, the full range of ablation methods recommended, and a more nuanced representation of how HIV status intersects with cervical cancer risk and exposure to screening to model outcomes of different approaches to screening. METHODS: Using a Markov model, we estimate the relative health outcomes and costs of different approaches to cervical cancer screening among Malawian women. The model was parameterized using published data, and focused on comparing "triage" approaches-i.e., lesion treatment (cryotherapy or thermocoagulation) at differing frequencies and varying by HIV status. Health outcomes were quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and deaths averted. The model was built using TreeAge Pro software. RESULTS: Thermocoagulation was more cost-effective than cryotherapy at all screening frequencies. Screening women once per decade would avert substantially more deaths than screening only once per lifetime, at relatively little additional cost. Moreover, at this frequency, it would be advisable to ensure that all women who screen positive receive treatment (rather than investing in further increases in screening frequency): for a similar gain in QALYs, it would cost more than four times as much to implement once-per-5 years screening with only 50% of women treated versus once-per-decade screening with 100% of women treated. Stratified screening schedules by HIV status was found to be an optimal approach. CONCLUSIONS: These results add new evidence about cost-effective approaches to cervical cancer screening in low-income countries. At relatively infrequent screening intervals, if resources are limited, it would be more cost-effective to invest in scaling up thermocoagulation for treatment before increasing the recommended screening frequency. In Malawi or countries in a similar stage of the HIV epidemic, a stratified approach that prioritizes more frequent screening for women living with HIV may be more cost-effective than population-wide recommendations that are HIV status neutral.

Association Between the ACA Medicaid Expansions and Changes in Cardiovascular Risk Factors Among Low-Income Individuals.

BACKGROUND: Evidence is limited as to whether the introduction of the Affordable Care Act (ACA)'s Medicaid expansions was associated with improvements in cardiovascular risk factors at the population level. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between the ACA Medicaid expansions and changes in cardiovascular risk factors among low-income individuals during the first 3 years of the implementation of the ACA Medicaid expansions at the national level. DESIGN: A quasi-experimental difference-in-differences (DID) analysis to compare outcomes before (2005-2012) and after (2015-2016) the implementation of the ACA Medicaid expansions between individuals in states that expanded Medicaid and individuals in non-expansion states. PARTICIPANTS: A nationally representative sample of individuals aged 19-64 years with family incomes below 138% of the federal poverty level from the 2005-2016 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). INTERVENTION: ACA Medicaid expansions. MAIN MEASURES: Cardiovascular risk factors included (1) systolic and diastolic blood pressure, (2) hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) level, and (3) cholesterol levels (low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol). KEY RESULTS: A total of 9177 low-income individuals were included in our analysis. We found that the ACA Medicaid expansions were associated with a lower systolic blood pressure (DID estimate, - 3.03 mmHg; 95% CI, - 5.33 mmHg to - 0.73 mmHg; P = 0.01; P = 0.03 after adjustment for multiple comparisons) and lower HbA1c level (DID estimate, - 0.14 percentage points [pp]; 95% CI, - 0.24 pp to - 0.03 pp; P = 0.01; P = 0.03 after adjustment for multiple comparisons). We found no evidence that diastolic blood pressure and cholesterol levels changed following the ACA Medicaid expansions. CONCLUSION: Using the nationally representative data of individuals who were affected by the ACA, we found that the ACA Medicaid expansions were associated with a modest improvement in cardiovascular risk factors related to hypertension and diabetes during the first 3 years of implementation.

Readmission Rates for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Under the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program: an Interrupted Time Series Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Hospital readmission rates decreased for myocardial infarction (AMI), heart failure (CHF), and pneumonia with implementation of the first phase of the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP). It is not established whether readmissions fell for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), an HRRP condition added in 2014. OBJECTIVE: We sought to determine whether HRRP penalties influenced COPD readmissions among Medicare, Medicaid, or privately insured patients. DESIGN: We analyzed a retrospective cohort, evaluating readmissions across implementation periods for HRRP penalties ("pre-HRRP" January 2010-April 2011, "implementation" May 2011-September 2012, "partial penalty" October 2012-September 2014, and "full penalty" October 2014-December 2016). PATIENTS: We assessed discharged patients ≥ 40 years old with COPD versus those with HRRP Phase 1 conditions (AMI, CHF, and pneumonia) or non-HRRP residual diagnoses in the Nationwide Readmissions Database. INTERVENTIONS: HRRP was announced and implemented during this period, forming a natural experiment. MEASUREMENTS: We calculated differences-in-differences (DID) for 30-day COPD versus HRRP Phase 1 and non-HRRP readmissions. KEY RESULTS: COPD discharges for 1.2 million Medicare enrollees were compared with 22 million non-HRRP and 3.4 million HRRP Phase 1 discharges. COPD readmissions decreased from 19 to 17% over the study. This reduction was significantly greater than non-HRRP conditions (DID - 0.41%), but not HRRP Phase 1 (DID + 0.02%). A parallel trend was observed in the privately insured, with significant reduction compared with non-HRRP (DID - 0.83%), but not HRRP Phase 1 conditions (DID - 0.45%). Non-significant reductions occurred in Medicaid (DID - 0.52% vs. non-HRRP and - 0.21% vs. Phase 1 conditions). CONCLUSIONS: In Medicare, HRRP implementation was associated with reductions in COPD readmissions compared with non-HRRP controls but not versus other HRRP conditions. Parallel findings were observed in commercial insurance, but not in Medicaid. Condition-specific penalties may not reduce readmissions further than existing HRRP trends.

Comorbidity and thirty-day hospital readmission odds in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a comparison of the Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity indices.

BACKGROUND: Readmissions following exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are prevalent and costly. Multimorbidity is common in COPD and understanding how comorbidity influences readmission risk will enable health systems to manage these complex patients. OBJECTIVES: We compared two commonly used comorbidity indices published by Charlson and Elixhauser regarding their ability to estimate readmission odds in COPD and determine which one provided a superior model. METHODS: We analyzed discharge records for COPD from the Nationwide Readmissions Database spanning 2010 to 2016. Inclusion and readmission criteria from the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program were utilized. Elixhauser and Charlson Comorbidity Index scores were calculated from published methodology. A mixed-effects logistic regression model with random intercepts for hospital clusters was fit for each comorbidity index, including year, patient-level, and hospital-level covariates to estimate odds of thirty-day readmissions. Sensitivity analyses included testing age inclusion thresholds and model stability across time. RESULTS: In analysis of 1.6 million COPD discharges, readmission odds increased by 9% for each half standard deviation increase of Charlson Index scores and 13% per half standard deviation increase of Elixhauser Index scores. Model fit was slightly better for the Elixhauser Index using information criteria. Model parameters were stable in our sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Both comorbidity indices provide meaningful information in prediction readmission odds in COPD with slightly better model fit in the Elixhauser model. Incorporation of comorbidity information into risk prediction models and hospital discharge planning may be informative to mitigate readmissions.

Sources of Success in California's Individual Marketplace under the Affordable Care Act.

When passed in 2010, the Affordable Care Act (ACA) became the greatest piece of health care reform in the United States since the creation of Medicare and Medicaid. In the 9 years since its passage, the law has ushered in a drastic decrease in the number of uninsured Americans and has encouraged delivery system innovation. However, the ACA has not been uniformly embraced, and states differ in their implementation of the law and in their individual health insurance marketplace's successfulness. Furthermore, under the Trump administration the law's future and the stability of the individual market have been uncertain. Throughout, however, California has been a leader. Today, the state's marketplace, known as Covered California, offers comprehensive, standardized health plans to over 1.3 million consumers. California's success with the ACA is largely attributable to its historical receptiveness to health reform; its early adoption of the law; its decision to have Covered California operate as an active purchaser, help shape the plans sold through the marketplace, and design a consumer-friendly enrollment experience; its engagement with stakeholders and community partners to encourage enrollment; and Covered California's commitment to continually innovate, improve, and anticipate the needs of the individual market as the law moves forward.

The Affordable Care Act's Impacts on Access to Insurance and Health Care for Low-Income Populations.

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) expands access to health insurance in the United States, and, to date, an estimated 20 million previously uninsured individuals have gained coverage. Understanding the law's impact on coverage, access, utilization, and health outcomes, especially among low-income populations, is critical to informing ongoing debates about its effectiveness and implementation. Early findings indicate that there have been significant reductions in the rate of uninsurance among the poor and among those who live in Medicaid expansion states. In addition, the law has been associated with increased health care access, affordability, and use of preventive and outpatient services among low-income populations, though impacts on inpatient utilization and health outcomes have been less conclusive. Although these early findings are generally consistent with past coverage expansions, continued monitoring of these domains is essential to understand the long-term impact of the law for underserved populations.

The California Health Policy Research Program - supporting policy making through evidence and responsive research.

This article explores the creation, design, and execution of a university-based collaboration to provide responsive research and evidence to a group of diverse health care, labor, and consumer stakeholders through convening a funded series of deliberative meetings, research briefs, peer-reviewed journal articles, ad hoc data analyses, and policy analyses. Funded by the California Endowment, the California Health Policy Research Program was created by researchers at the University of California, Berkeley Center for Labor Research and Education, and the UCLA Center for Health Policy Research. The collaboration not only allowed new research and analyses to be used by stakeholders and policy makers in decision making but also allowed university researchers to receive input on the important health policy issues of the day. The guidance of stakeholders in the research and policy analysis process was vital in driving meaningful results during an important time in health policy making in California. The manuscript discusses lessons learned in building relationships with stakeholders; meeting research and analytic needs; engaging stakeholders and policy makers; building capacity for quick-turnaround data collection and analysis, dissemination and publication; and maintaining the collaboration.

Racial Differences in Treatment Intensity at the End of Life Among Older Adults with Heart Failure: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study.

Background: Black Americans experience the highest prevalence of heart failure (HF) and the worst clinical outcomes of any racial or ethnic group, but little is known about end-of-life care for this population. Objective: Compare treatment intensity between Black and White older adults with HF near the end of life. Design: Negative binomial and logistic regression analyses of pooled, cross-sectional data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). Setting/Subjects: A total of 1607 U.S. adults aged 65 years and older with HF who identify as Black or White, and whose proxy informant participated in an HRS exit interview between 2002 and 2016. Measurements: We compared four common measures of treatment intensity at the end of life (number of hospital admissions, receipt of care in an intensive care unit (ICU), utilization of life support, and whether the decedent died in a hospital) between Black and White HF patients, controlling for demographic, social, and health characteristics. Results: Racial identity was not significantly associated with the number of hospital admissions or admission to an ICU in the last 24 months of life. However, Black HF patients were more likely to spend time on life support (odds ratio [OR] = 2.16, confidence interval [CI] = 1.35-3.44, p = 0.00) and more likely to die in a hospital (OR = 1.53, CI = 1.03-2.28, p = 0.04) than White HF patients. Conclusion: Black HF patients were more likely to die in a hospital and to spend time on life support than White HF patients. Thoughtful and consistent engagement with HF patients regarding treatment preferences is an important step in addressing inequities.

Are HPV vaccination services accessible to high-risk communities? A spatial analysis of HPV-associated cancer and Chlamydia rates and safety-net clinics.

PURPOSE: While HPV vaccines can greatly benefit adolescents and young women from high-risk areas, little is known about whether safety-net immunization services are geographically accessible to communities at greatest risk for HPV-associated diseases. We explore the spatial relationship between areas with high HPV risk and proximity to safety-net clinics from an ecologic perspective. METHODS: We used cancer registry data and Chlamydia surveillance data to identify neighborhoods within Los Angeles County with high risk for HPV-associated cancers. We examined proximity to safety-net clinics among neighborhoods with the highest risk. Proximity was measured as the shortest distance between each neighborhood center and the nearest clinic and having a clinic within 3 miles of each neighborhood center. RESULTS: The average 5-year non-age-adjusted rates were 1,940 cases per 100,000 for Chlamydia and 60 per 100,000 for HPV-associated cancers. A large majority, 349 of 386 neighborhoods with high HPV-associated cancer rates and 532 of 537 neighborhoods with high Chlamydia rates, had a clinic within 3 miles of the neighborhood center. Clinics were more likely to be located within close proximity to high-risk neighborhoods in the inner city. High-risk neighborhoods outside of this urban core area were less likely to be near accessible clinics. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of high-risk neighborhoods were geographically near safety-net clinics with HPV vaccination services. Due to low rates of vaccination, these findings suggest that while services are geographically accessible, additional efforts are needed to improve uptake. Programs aimed to increase awareness about the vaccine and to link underserved groups to vaccination services are warranted.

Expenditures for the care of HIV-infected patients in rural areas in China's antiretroviral therapy programs.

BACKGROUND: The Chinese government has provided health services to those infected by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) under the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) care policy since 2003. Detailed research on the actual expenditures and costs for providing care to patients with AIDS is needed for future financial planning of AIDS health care services and possible reform of HIV/AIDS-related policy. The purpose of the current study was to determine the actual expenditures and factors influencing costs for untreated AIDS patients in a rural area of China after initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) under the national Free Care Program (China CARES). METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted in Yunnan and Shanxi Provinces, where HAART and all medical care are provided free to HIV-positive patients. Health expenditures and costs in the first treatment year were collected from medical records and prescriptions at local hospitals between January and June 2007. Multivariate linear regression was used to determine the factors associated with the actual expenditures in the first antiretroviral (ARV) treatment year. RESULTS: Five ARV regimens are commonly used in China CARES: zidovudine (AZT) + lamivudine (3TC) + nevirapine (NVP), stavudine (D4T) + 3TC + efavirenz (EFV), D4T + 3TC + NVP, didanosine (DDI) + 3TC + NVP and combivir + EFV. The mean annual expenditure per person for ARV medications was US$2,242 (US$1 = 7 Chinese Yuan (CNY)) among 276 participants. The total costs for treating all adverse drug events (ADEs) and opportunistic infections (OIs) were US$29,703 and US$23,031, respectively. The expenses for treatment of peripheral neuritis and cytomegalovirus (CMV) infections were the highest among those patients with ADEs and OIs, respectively. On the basis of multivariate linear regression, CD4 cell counts (100-199 cells/µL versus <100 cells/µL, P = 0.02; and ≥200 cells/µL versus <100 cells/µL, P < 0.004), residence in Mangshi County (P < 0.0001), ADEs (P = 0.04) and OIs (P = 0.02) were significantly associated with total expenditures in the first ARV treatment year. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to determine the actual costs of HIV treatment in rural areas of China. Costs for ARV drugs represented the major portion of HIV medical expenditures. Initiating HAART in patients with higher CD4 cell count levels is likely to reduce treatment expenses for ADEs and OIs in patients with AIDS.

The role of Medicaid managed care interventions in Chlamydia screening by physicians.

BACKGROUND: Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) guidelines call for annual screening of all sexually active young females. In previous studies, Medicaid health maintenance organizations (HMOs) did not consistently recommend CT and other sexually transmitted disease guidelines, but physicians with HMO practices were more likely to comply with guidelines than those without HMO practices. This study examines the relationship between HMO interventions and physician adherence to annual (CT) screening guidelines for sexually active young (ages 15-25) females. METHODS: Medicaid HMOs (N = 17) of California were surveyed regarding their interventions to increase physician adherence with national CT screening guidelines in 2002. Primary care physicians (N = 941) who contracted with these HMOs were also surveyed on their frequency (always/usually) of CT screening. Data were analyzed using logistic regression models. RESULTS: HMO-reported recommendations for CT screening and other interventions were associated with significantly higher odds of frequent CT screening by contracted physicians in unadjusted models. HMO recommendations to screen young females increased the odds of frequent CT screening, but other interventions were no longer significantly associated after controlling for physician characteristics. Physicians also had higher odds of reporting frequent CT screening if they had received training in the past, had received feedback from their contracted HMOs, or reported having access to national CT screening guidelines. Physician gender, specialty, years of clinical experience, and other factors were also significantly associated with the odds of frequency of CT screening. DISCUSSION: Improving physician adherence with CT screening guidelines requires a refinement of current approaches with targeted interventions that are tailored to the characteristics of physicians. In addition, interventions are more likely to be effective if provided in formats that are perceived and acknowledged by physicians.

Financial impact of California's new law to increase HIV screening by mandating insurance coverage.

To increase HIV testing, in 2008 California's governor signed the first piece of legislation in the USA to require private health plans to cover the cost of HIV testing regardless of whether testing is related to a primary diagnosis. This study assesses the impacts of the bill on coverage, testing rate, and cost for 22,190,000 Californians. All targeted individuals had some form of coverage for HIV testing before the mandate. If minimum expansion of coverage occurs, overall expenditures on HIV testing are projected to increase by US$554,000 in the year following the adoption of the law. If testing broadens to comply with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) testing guidelines, annual expenditures are projected to increase by US$10,151,000. This policy change could serve as a step toward making HIV testing a routine screening test. However, the impact of this mandate largely depends on people's awareness and willingness to adopt the CDC guidelines.

The Effect Of The Affordable Care Act On Cancer Detection Among The Near-Elderly.

During the period 2014-16 the Affordable Care Act (ACA) dramatically reduced rates of uninsurance and underinsurance in the United States. In this study we estimated the effects of these coverage increases on cancer detection among the near-elderly population (ages 60-64). Using 2010-16 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program data, we estimated that the ACA increased cancer detection among this population. We found that 45 percent of the jump in cancer detection that occurs when people reach Medicare eligibility age was eliminated by the ACA coverage expansions. The ACA coverage expansions had large effects on cancers with and without routine screening tests, and 68 percent of newly detected cancers were early- and middle-stage cancers. In addition, the empirical strategy used to identify the effects of the ACA on cancer detection confirmed the role of health insurance as the key mechanism to explain Medicare's effects on health care use and health outcomes as described in the prior literature. Our results highlight the importance of the ACA, Medicare, and health insurance coverage generally for disease detection.

Effect of Training Pediatric Clinicians in Human Papillomavirus Communication Strategies on Human Papillomavirus Vaccination Rates: A Cluster Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Missed opportunities for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination during pediatric health care visits are common. Objectives: To evaluate the effect of online communication training for clinicians on missed opportunities for HPV vaccination rates overall and at well-child care (WCC) visits and visits for acute or chronic illness (hereafter referred to as acute or chronic visits) and on adolescent HPV vaccination rates. Design, Setting, and Participants: From December 26, 2018, to July 30, 2019, a longitudinal cluster randomized clinical trial allocated practices to communication training vs standard of care in staggered 6-month periods. A total of 48 primary care pediatric practices in 19 states were recruited from the American Academy of Pediatrics Pediatric Research in Office Settings network. Participants were clinicians in intervention practices. Outcomes were evaluated for all 11- to 17-year-old adolescents attending 24 intervention practices (188 clinicians) and 24 control practices (177 clinicians). Analyses were as randomized and performed on an intent-to-treat basis, accounting for clustering by practice. Interventions: Three sequential online educational modules were developed to help participating clinicians communicate with parents about the HPV vaccine. Weekly text messages were sent to participating clinicians to reinforce learning. Statisticians were blinded to group assignment. Main Outcomes and Measures: Main outcomes were missed opportunities for HPV vaccination overall and for HPV vaccine initiation and subsequent doses at WCC and acute or chronic visits (visit-level outcome). Secondary outcomes were HPV vaccination rates (person-level outcome). Outcomes were compared during the intervention vs baseline. Results: Altogether, 122 of 188 clinicians in intervention practices participated; of these, 120, 119, and 116 clinicians completed training modules 1, 2, and 3, respectively. During the intervention period, 29 206 adolescents (14 664 girls [50.2%]; mean [SD] age, 14.2 [2.0] years) made 15 888 WCC and 28 123 acute or chronic visits to intervention practices; 33 914 adolescents (17 069 girls [50.3%]; mean [SD] age, 14.2 [2.0] years) made 17 910 WCC and 35 281 acute or chronic visits to control practices. Intervention practices reduced missed opportunities overall by 2.4 percentage points (-2.4%; 95% CI, -3.5% to -1.2%) more than controls. Intervention practices reduced missed opportunities for vaccine initiation during WCC visits by 6.8 percentage points (-6.8%; 95% CI, -9.7% to -3.9%) more than controls. The intervention had no effect on missed opportunities for subsequent doses of the HPV vaccine or at acute or chronic visits. Adolescents in intervention practices had a 3.4-percentage point (95% CI, 0.6%-6.2%) greater improvement in HPV vaccine initiation compared with adolescents in control practices. Conclusions and Relevance: This scalable, online communication training increased HPV vaccination, particularly HPV vaccine initiation at WCC visits. Results support dissemination of this intervention. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03599557.

The effect of neonatal intensive care level and hospital volume on mortality of very low birth weight infants.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the adjusted effect of hospital level of care and volume on mortality of very low birth weight (VLBW) infants in the state of California, where deregionalization of perinatal care has occurred. RESEARCH DESIGN: Secondary data analysis of California maternal-infant hospital discharge data from 1997 to 2002 was performed. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the odds of mortality among VLBW infants by hospital level of neonatal intensive care and volume of VLBW deliveries, in the context of differences in antenatal and delivery factors by hospital site of delivery. RESULTS: Both maternal and fetal antenatal risk profiles and delivery characteristics vary by hospital site of delivery. After risk adjustment, lower-level, lower-volume units were associated with a higher odds of mortality. The highest odds of mortality occurred in level-1 units with < or =10 VLBW deliveries per year (odds ratio, 1.69; 95% confidence interval, 1.43-1.99). In isolation, hospital volume, rather than level of care, had the greater effect. CONCLUSIONS: Although deregionalization of perinatal services may increase access to care for high-risk mothers and newborns, its impact on hospital volume may outweigh its potential benefit.

Estimated cost impacts of law to expand coverage for self-management education to children with asthma in California.

BACKGROUND: The California Legislature requires health maintenance organizations (HMOs) to expand coverage for pediatric asthma self-management educational services under two scenarios: education in clinic settings (to include group education) for symptomatic children; education in clinic and community settings (to include home- or school-based education) for children with uncontrolled asthma. Objective. This study aims to determine the impacts of the bill on coverage, utilization, and costs. METHODS: The study population includes 503,000 children ages 1-17 years with symptomatic asthma and 134,000 children with uncontrolled asthma insured by California HMOs. The net effects of the expansion of coverage on costs were estimated after factoring in both the new costs associated with increases in utilization of expanded asthma self-management education as well as the cost savings resulting from reduced asthma-related emergency room visits and hospitalizations. RESULTS: All children enrolled in HMOs in California are covered for clinic-based individual asthma self-management education, though alternative methods, such as group health education classes, and home- or school-based education services are less frequently or not covered at all by HMOs. The cost estimate for expansion of clinic-based education services to children with symptomatic asthma was approximately $5 million; and expansion of clinic and community-based education services to children with uncontrolled asthma was approximately $1 million annually if utilization increased by 10%. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that expansion of coverage for pediatric asthma self-management education is not very costly, especially for children with uncontrolled asthma given the potential improvements in asthma outcomes. Further evaluation of feasibility for implementation of community-based education is needed.

Out-of-pocket spending and financial burden among low income adults after Medicaid expansions in the United States: quasi-experimental difference-in-difference study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between expansion of the Medicaid program under the Affordable Care Act and changes in healthcare spending among low income adults during the first four years of the policy implementation (2014-17). DESIGN: Quasi-experimental difference-in-difference analysis to examine out-of-pocket spending and financial burden among low income adults after Medicaid expansions. SETTING: United States. PARTICIPANTS: A nationally representative sample of individuals aged 19-64 years, with family incomes below 138% of the federal poverty level, from the 2010-17 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Four annual healthcare spending outcomes: out-of-pocket spending; premium contributions; out-of-pocket plus premium spending; and catastrophic financial burden (defined as out-of-pocket plus premium spending exceeding 40% of post-subsistence income). P values were adjusted for multiple comparisons. RESULTS: 37 819 adults were included in the study. Healthcare spending did not change in the first two years, but Medicaid expansions were associated with lower out-of-pocket spending (adjusted percentage change -28.0% (95% confidence interval -38.4% to -15.8%); adjusted absolute change -$122 (£93; €110); adjusted P<0.001), lower out-of-pocket plus premium spending (-29.0% (-40.5% to -15.3%); -$442; adjusted P<0.001), and lower probability of experiencing a catastrophic financial burden (adjusted percentage point change -4.7 (-7.9 to -1.4); adjusted P=0.01) in years three to four. No evidence was found to indicate that premium contributions changed after the Medicaid expansions. CONCLUSION: Medicaid expansions under the Affordable Care Act were associated with lower out-of-pocket spending and a lower likelihood of catastrophic financial burden for low income adults in the third and fourth years of the act's implementation. These findings suggest that the act has been successful nationally in improving financial risk protection against medical bills among low income adults.

Factors Associated with Differential Readmission Diagnoses Following Acute Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

BACKGROUND: Readmissions after exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are penalized under the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP). Understanding attributable diagnoses at readmission would improve readmission reduction strategies. OBJECTIVES: Determine factors that portend 30-day readmissions attributable to COPD versus non-COPD diagnoses among patients discharged following COPD exacerbations. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We analyzed COPD discharges in the Nationwide Readmissions Database from 2010 to 2016 using inclusion and readmission definitions in HRRP. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: We evaluated readmission odds for COPD versus non-COPD returns using a multilevel, multinomial logistic regression model. Patient-level covariates included age, sex, community characteristics, payer, discharge disposition, and Elixhauser Comorbidity Index. Hospital-level covariates included hospital ownership, teaching status, volume of annual discharges, and proportion of Medicaid patients. RESULTS: Of 1,622,983 (a weighted effective sample of 3,743,164) eligible COPD hospitalizations, 17.25% were readmitted within 30 days (7.69% for COPD and 9.56% for other diagnoses). Sepsis, heart failure, and respiratory infections were the most common non-COPD return diagnoses. Patients readmitted for COPD were younger with fewer comorbidities than patients readmitted for non-COPD. COPD returns were more prevalent the first two days after discharge than non-COPD returns. Comorbidity was a stronger driver for non-COPD (odds ratio [OR] 1.19) than COPD (OR 1.04) readmissions. CONCLUSION: Thirty-day readmissions following COPD exacerbations are common, and 55% of them are attributable to non-COPD diagnoses at the time of return. Higher burden of comorbidity is observed among non-COPD than COPD rehospitalizations. Readmission reduction efforts should focus intensively on factors beyond COPD disease management to reduce readmissions considerably by aggressively attempting to mitigate comorbid conditions.

Towards universal health coverage: lessons from 10 years of healthcare reform in China.

Universal health coverage (UHC) is driving the global health agenda. Many countries have embarked on national policy reforms towards this goal, including China. In 2009, the Chinese government launched a new round of healthcare reform towards UHC, aiming to provide universal coverage of basic healthcare by the end of 2020. The year of 2019 marks the 10th anniversary of China's most recent healthcare reform. Sharing China's experience is especially timely for other countries pursuing reforms to achieve UHC. This study describes the social, economic and health context in China, and then reviews the overall progress of healthcare reform (1949 to present), with a focus on the most recent (2009) round of healthcare reform. The study comprehensively analyses key reform initiatives and major achievements according to four aspects: health insurance system, drug supply and security system, medical service system and public health service system. Lessons learnt from China may have important implications for other nations, including continued political support, increased health financing and a strong primary healthcare system as basis.

Assessing and forecasting population health: integrating knowledge and beliefs in a comprehensive framework.

A comprehensive population health-forecasting model has the potential to interject new and valuable information about the future health status of the population based on current conditions, socioeconomic and demographic trends, and potential changes in policies and programs. Our Health Forecasting Model uses a continuous-time microsimulation framework to simulate individuals' lifetime histories by using birth, risk exposures, disease incidence, and death rates to mark changes in the state of the individual. The model generates a reference forecast of future health in California, including details on physical activity, obesity, coronary heart disease, all-cause mortality, and medical expenditures. We use the model to answer specific research questions, inform debate on important policy issues in public health, support community advocacy, and provide analysis on the long-term impact of proposed changes in policies and programs, thus informing stakeholders at all levels and supporting decisions that can improve the health of populations.