Approximate Bayesian inference for multivariate point pattern analysis in disease mapping.

We present a novel approach for analysing multivariate case-control georeferenced data in a Bayesian disease mapping context using stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) and the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) for model fitting. In particular, we propose smooth terms based on SPDE models to estimate the underlying spatial variation as well as risk associated to pollution sources. Log-Gaussian Cox processes are used to estimate the intensity of the cases and controls, to account for risk factors and include a term to measure spatial residual variation. Each intensity is modelled on a baseline spatial effect (estimated from both controls and cases), a disease-specific spatial term and the effects of some covariates. By fitting these models, the residual spatial terms can be easily compared to detect high-risk areas not explained by the covariates. Three different types of effects to model exposure to pollution sources are considered on the distance to the source: a fixed effect, a smooth term to model non-linear effects by means of a discrete random walk of order one and a Gaussian process in one dimension with a Matérn covariance function. Spatial terms are modelled using a Gaussian process in two dimensions with a Matérn covariance function and are approximated using an approach based on solving an SPDE through INLA. Finally, this new framework is applied to a dataset of three different types of cancer and a set of controls from Alcalá de Henares (Madrid, Spain). Covariates available include the distance to several polluting industries and socioeconomic indicators. Our findings point to a possible risk increase due to the proximity to some of these industries.

Massive application of the SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic test: simulation of its effect on the evolution of the epidemic in Spain.

In Spain, the epidemic curve caused by COVID-19 has reached its peak in the last days of March. The implementation of the blockade derived from the declaration of the state of alarm on 14th March has raised a discussion on how and when to deal with the unblocking. In this paper, we intend to add information that may help by using epidemic simulation techniques with stochastic individual contact models and several extensions.

Long-term trends in pancreatic cancer mortality in Spain (1952-2012).

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic cancer is acquiring increasing prominence as a cause of cancer death in the population. The purpose of this study was to analyze long-term pancreatic cancer mortality trends in Spain and evaluate the independent effects of age, death period and birth cohort on these trends. METHODS: Population and mortality data for the period 1952-2012 were obtained from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Pancreatic cancer deaths were identified using the International Classification of Diseases ICD-6 to ICD-9 (157 code) and ICD-10 (C25 code). Age-specific and age-adjusted mortality rates were computed by sex, region and five-year period. Changes in pancreatic cancer mortality trends were evaluated using joinpoint regression analyses by sex and region. Age-period-cohort log-linear models were fitted separately for each sex, and segmented regression models were used to detect changes in period- and cohort-effect curvatures. RESULTS: In men, rates increased by 4.1% per annum from 1975 until the mid-1980s and by 1.1% thereafter. In women, there was an increase of 3.6% per annum until the late 1980s, and 1.4% per annum from 1987 to 2012. With reference to the cohort effects, there was an increase in mortality until the generations born in the 1950s in men and a subsequent decline detected by the change point in 1960. A similar trend was observed in women, but the change point occurred 10 years later than in men. CONCLUSIONS: Pancreatic cancer mortality increased over the study period in both sexes and all regions. An important rise in rates -around 4% annually- was registered until the 1980s, and upward trends were more moderate subsequently. The differences among sexes in trends in younger generations may be linked to different past prevalence of exposure to some risk factors, particularly tobacco, which underwent an earlier decrease in men than in women.

Compositional analysis of topsoil metals and its associations with cancer mortality using spatial misaligned data.

The presence of toxic metals in soil per se, and in soil impacted by mining, industry, agriculture and urbanisation in particular, is a major concern for both human health and ecotoxicology. The dual aim of this study was: to ascertain whether topsoil composition could influence the spatial distribution of mortality due to different types of cancer and to identify possible errors committed by epidemiological studies which analyse soil composition data as a closed number system. We conducted an ecological cancer mortality study, covering 861,440 cancer deaths (27 cancer sites) in 7917 Spanish mainland towns, from 1999 to 2008. Topsoil levels of Al, As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn were determined by ICP-MS at 13,317 sampling points. We transformed the topsoil data in two ways, i.e. log transformation and centred logratio transformation. Principal factor analysis was performed to obtain independent latent factors for the transformed variables. To estimate the effect on mortality of topsoil factor loadings, we fitted Besag, York and Mollié models embedded in geostatistical-spatial models. This model included soil sample locations and town centroids (non-aligned data), fitted using the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) as a tool for Bayesian inference and stochastic partial differential equations (SPDE). All results were adjusted for socio-demographic variables. The results indicated that soil composition could have an influence on the spatial distribution and mortality patterns of cancer. The analysis adjusted for socio-demographic variables showed excess male mortality due to digestive system tumours in areas with soils containing higher Cd, Pb, Zn, Mn and Cu concentrations, bladder cancer in areas with soils containing higher Cd concentrations, and brain cancer in areas with soils containing As. In both sexes, cancer of oesophagus was associated with soils containing a higher lead content, while lung cancer was associated with soils containing a higher copper content. Stress should be laid on the importance of taking into account the compositional nature of the data in this type of analysis.

Industrial pollution and cancer in Spain: An important public health issue.

Cancer can be caused by exposure to air pollution released by industrial facilities. The European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register (E-PRTR) has made it possible to study exposure to industrial pollution. This study seeks to describe the industrial emissions in the vicinity of Spanish towns and their temporal changes, and review our experience studying industrial pollution and cancer. Data on industrial pollutant sources (2007-2010) were obtained from the E-PRTR registries. Population exposure was estimated by the distance from towns to industrial facilities. We calculated the amount of carcinogens emitted into the air in the proximity (<5km) of towns and show them in municipal maps. We summarized the most relevant results and conclusions reported by ecological E-PRTR-based on studies of cancer mortality and industrial pollution in Spain and the limitations and result interpretations of these types of studies. There are high amounts of carcinogen emissions in the proximity of towns in the southwest, east and north of the country and the total amount of emitted carcinogens is considerable (e.g. 20Mt of arsenic, 63Mt of chromium and 9Mt of cadmium). Although the emissions of some carcinogens in the proximity of certain towns were reduced during the study period, emissions of benzene, dioxins+furans and polychlorinated biphenyls rose. Moreover, the average population of towns lying within a 5km radius from emission sources of carcinogens included in the International Agency for Research on Cancer list of carcinogens was 9 million persons. On the other hand, the results of the reviewed studies suggest that those Spanish regions exposed to the pollution released by certain types of industrial facilities have around 17% cancer excess mortality when compared with those unexposed. Moreover, excess mortality is focused on digestive and respiratory tract cancers, leukemias, prostate, breast and ovarian cancers. Despite their limitations, ecological studies are a useful tool in environmental epidemiology, not only for proposing etiological hypotheses about the risk of living close to industrial pollutant sources, but also for providing data to account for situations of higher mortality in specific areas. Nevertheless, the reduction of emissions should be a goal, with special relevance given to establishing limits for known carcinogens and other toxic substances in the environs of population centers, as well as industry-specific emission limits.

Association between residential proximity to environmental pollution sources and childhood renal tumors.

BACKGROUND: Few risk factors for childhood renal tumors are well established. While a small fraction of cases might be attributable to susceptibility genes and congenital anomalies, the role of environmental factors needs to be assessed. OBJECTIVES: To explore the possible association between residential proximity to environmental pollution sources (industrial and urban areas, and agricultural crops) and childhood renal cancer, taking into account industrial groups and toxic substances released. METHODS: We conducted a population-based case-control study of childhood renal cancer in Spain, including 213 incident cases gathered from the Spanish Registry of Childhood Tumors (period 1996-2011), and 1278 controls individually matched by year of birth, sex, and region of residence. Distances were computed from the respective subject's residences to the 1271 industries, the 30 urban areas with ≥75,000 inhabitants, and the agricultural crops located in the study area. Using logistic regression, odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) for categories of distance to pollution sources were calculated, with adjustment for matching variables and socioeconomic confounders. RESULTS: Excess risk (OR; 95%CI) of childhood renal tumors was observed for children living near (≤2.5km) industrial installations as a whole (1.97; 1.13-3.42) - particularly glass and mineral fibers (2.69; 1.19-6.08), galvanization (2.66; 1.14-6.22), hazardous waste (2.59; 1.25-5.37), ceramic (2.35; 1.06-5.21), surface treatment of metals (2.25; 1.24-4.08), organic chemical industry (2.22; 1.15-4.26), food and beverage sector (2.19; 1.18-4.07), urban and waste-water treatment plants (2.14; 1.07-4.30), and production and processing of metals (1.98; 1.03-3.82) -, and in the proximity of agricultural crops (3.16; 1.54-8.89 for children with percentage of crop surface ≥24.35% in a 1-km buffer around their residences). CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides some epidemiological evidence that living near certain industrial areas and agricultural crops may be a risk factor for childhood renal cancer.

Residential proximity to environmental pollution sources and risk of rare tumors in children.

BACKGROUND: Few epidemiologic studies have explored risk factors for rare tumors in children, and the role of environmental factors needs to be assessed. OBJECTIVES: To ascertain the effect of residential proximity to both industrial and urban areas on childhood cancer risk, taking industrial groups into account. METHODS: We conducted a population-based case-control study of five childhood cancers in Spain (retinoblastoma, hepatic tumors, soft tissue sarcomas, germ cell tumors, and other epithelial neoplasms/melanomas), including 557 incident cases from the Spanish Registry of Childhood Tumors (period 1996-2011), and 3342 controls individually matched by year of birth, sex, and region of residence. Distances were computed from the residences to the 1271 industries and the 30 urban areas with ≥75,000 inhabitants located in the study area. Using logistic regression, odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) for categories of distance to industrial and urban pollution sources were calculated, with adjustment for matching variables and socioeconomic confounders. RESULTS: Children living near industrial and urban areas as a whole showed no excess risk for any of the tumors analyzed. However, isolated statistical associations (OR; 95%CI) were found between retinoblastoma and proximity to industries involved in glass and mineral fibers (2.49; 1.01-6.12 at 3km) and organic chemical industries (2.54; 1.10-5.90 at 2km). Moreover, soft tissue sarcomas registered the lower risks in the environs of industries as a whole (0.59; 0.38-0.93 at 4km). CONCLUSIONS: We have found isolated statistical associations between retinoblastoma and proximity to industries involved in glass and mineral fibers and organic chemical industries.

Agricultural crop exposure and risk of childhood cancer: new findings from a case-control study in Spain.

BACKGROUND: Childhood cancer is the main cause of disease-related death in children in Spain. Although little is known about the etiology, environmental factors are potential explanations for a fraction of the cases. Previous studies have shown pesticides to be associated with childhood cancer. The difficulty of collecting personal environmental exposure data is an important limitation; this lack of information about pesticides motivates the development of new methods to subrogate this exposure. We developed a crop exposure index based on geographic information to study the relationship between exposure to different types of crops and risk of childhood tumors. METHODS: We conducted a population-based case-control study of childhood cancer covering 3350 cases and 20,365 controls in two Spanish regions. We used CORINE Land Cover to obtain data about agricultural land use. We created a 1 km buffer around every child and calculated the percentage of crop surface within the buffer (Global Crop Index) for total crops and for individual types of crops. We fitted mixed multiple unconditional logistic regression models by diagnostic group. RESULTS: We found excess of risk among children living in the proximity of crops. For total crops our results showed excesses of risk for almost all diagnostic groups and increasing risk with increasing crop index value. Analyses by region and individual type of crop also showed excess of risk. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that living in the proximity of cultivated land could be a risk factor for several types of cancer in children.

The end of the decline in cervical cancer mortality in Spain: trends across the period 1981-2012.

BACKGROUND: In Spain, cervical cancer prevention is based on opportunistic screening, due to the disease's traditionally low incidence and mortality rates. Changes in sexual behaviour, tourism and migration have, however, modified the probability of exposure to human papilloma virus among Spaniards. This study thus sought to evaluate recent cervical cancer mortality trends in Spain. METHODS: We used annual female population figures and individual records of deaths certified as cancer of cervix, reclassifying deaths recorded as unspecified uterine cancer to correct coding quality problems. Joinpoint models were fitted to estimate change points in trends, as well as the annual (APC) and average annual percentage change. Log-linear Poisson models were also used to study age-period-cohort effects on mortality trends and their change points. RESULTS: 1981 marked the beginning of a decline in cervical cancer mortality (APC(1981-2003): -3.2; 95% CI:-3.4;-3.0) that ended in 2003, with rates reaching a plateau in the last decade (APC2003-2012: 0.1; 95% CI:-0.9; 1.2). This trend, which was observable among women aged 45-46 years (APC(2003-2012): 1.4; 95% CI:-0.1;2.9) and over 65 years (APC(2003-2012): -0.1; 95% CI:-1.9;1.7), was clearest in Spain's Mediterranean and Southern regions. CONCLUSIONS: The positive influence of opportunistic screening is not strong enough to further reduce cervical cancer mortality rates in the country. Our results suggest that the Spanish Health Authorities should reform current prevention programmes and surveillance strategies in order to confront the challenges posed by cervical cancer.

Childhood leukemia and residential proximity to industrial and urban sites.

BACKGROUND: Few risk factors for the childhood leukemia are well established. While a small fraction of cases of childhood leukemia might be partially attributable to some diseases or ionizing radiation exposure, the role of industrial and urban pollution also needs to be assessed. OBJECTIVES: To ascertain the possible effect of residential proximity to both industrial and urban areas on childhood leukemia, taking into account industrial groups and toxic substances released. METHODS: We conducted a population-based case-control study of childhood leukemia in Spain, covering 638 incident cases gathered from the Spanish Registry of Childhood Tumors and for those Autonomous Regions with 100% coverage (period 1990-2011), and 13,188 controls, individually matched by year of birth, sex, and autonomous region of residence. Distances were computed from the respective subject's residences to the 1068 industries and the 157 urban areas with ≥10,000 inhabitants, located in the study area. Using logistic regression, odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) for categories of distance to industrial and urban pollution sources were calculated, with adjustment for matching variables. RESULTS: Excess risk of childhood leukemia was observed for children living near (≤2.5 km) industries (OR=1.31; 95%CI=1.03-1.67) - particularly glass and mineral fibers (OR=2.42; 95%CI=1.49-3.92), surface treatment using organic solvents (OR=1.87; 95%CI=1.24-2.83), galvanization (OR=1.86; 95%CI=1.07-3.21), production and processing of metals (OR=1.69; 95%CI=1.22-2.34), and surface treatment of metals (OR=1.62; 95%CI=1.22-2.15) - , and urban areas (OR=1.36; 95%CI=1.02-1.80). CONCLUSIONS: Our study furnishes some evidence that living in the proximity of industrial and urban sites may be a risk factor for childhood leukemia.

Changes in period and cohort effects on haematological cancer mortality in Spain, 1952-2006.

BACKGROUND: In contrast to other haematological cancers, mortality from non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and multiple myeloma increased dramatically during the second half of the 20th century in most developed countries. This widespread upward trend remains controversial, as it may be attributable either to progressive improvements in diagnosis and certification or to increasing exposures to little-known but relevant risk factors. METHODS: To assess the relative contribution of these factors, we analysed the independent effects of age, death period, and birth cohort on haematological cancer mortality rates in Spain across the period 1952-2006. Weighted joinpoint regression analyses were performed to detect and estimate changes in period and cohort curvatures. RESULTS: Although mortality rates were consistently higher among men, trends across periods and cohorts were virtually identical in both sexes. There was an early period trend reversal in the 1960s for Hodgkin's disease and leukaemia, which was delayed to the 1980s for multiple myeloma and the 1990s for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Birth cohort patterns showed a first downturn for generations born in the 1900s and 1910s for all haematological cancers, and a second trend reversal for more recent cohorts born in the 1950s and 1960s for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and leukaemia. CONCLUSIONS: The sustained decline in Hodgkin's disease mortality and the levelling off in leukaemia seem to be driven by an early period effect linked to improvements in disease treatment, whereas the steep upward trends in non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and multiple myeloma mortality in Spain are more likely explained by a cohort effect linked to better diagnosis and death certification in the elderly. The consistent male excess mortality across all calendar periods and age groups points to the importance of possible sex-related genetic markers of susceptibility in haematological cancers.

Breast and prostate cancer: an analysis of common epidemiological features in mortality trends in Spain.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer in women and prostate cancer are the first and second leading tumour respectively in terms of incidence world-wide. Our objective is to ascertain the similarities and differences between mortality trends in breast cancer among women and prostate cancer in Spain using age-period-cohort models, and analyse the correlation between incidence of breast and prostate cancer at cancer registries locally and world-wide. METHODS: We analysed the independent effects of age, period of death and birth cohort on mortality rates for breast cancer in women and prostate cancer in Spain across the period 1952-2011. Segmented regression analyses were performed to detect and estimate changes in period and cohort curvatures. Correlation among age-adjusted incidence rates at 246 population cancer registries world-wide was analysed for the period 2003-2007. RESULTS: The mortality trend displayed common characteristics in terms of the annual number of deaths due to these tumours, their adjusted mortality rates and the change points detected in the cohort and period effects. The trend in incidence was very different to that in mortality, due to early detection and progressive improvement in survival. Correlation between the incidence rates of both tumours recorded by registries around the world proved to be a generalised phenomenon. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that breast cancer mortality in women and prostate cancer mortality and their trends in Spain display visible similarities in terms of the number of deaths due to these tumours, their adjusted mortality rates and the changes experienced by mortality over time. The effects of advances in the diagnosis of both tumours correspond to a decline in mortality which becomes evident after a lag of approximately eight years. Correlation between breast and prostate cancer incidence rates is very high in Spain and at registries on all continents.

Time trends in municipal distribution patterns of cancer mortality in Spain.

BACKGROUND: New disease mapping techniques widely used in small-area studies enable disease distribution patterns to be identified and have become extremely popular in the field of public health. This paper reports on trends in the geographical mortality patterns of the most frequent cancers in Spain, over a period of 20 years. METHODS: We studied the municipal spatial pattern of stomach, colorectal, lung, breast, prostate and urinary bladder cancer mortality in Spain across four quinquennia, spanning the period 1989-2008. Case data were broken down by town (8073 municipalities), period and sex. Expected cases for each town were calculated using reference rates for each five-year period. For map plotting purposes, smoothed municipal relative risks were calculated using the conditional autoregressive model proposed by Besag, York and Mollié, with independent data for each quinquennium. We evaluated the presence of spatial patterns in maps on the basis of models, calculating the variance in relative risk corresponding to the structured spatial component and the unstructured component, as well as the proportion of variance explained by the structured spatial component. RESULTS: The mortality patterns observed for stomach, colorectal and lung cancer were maintained over the 20 years covered by the study. Prostate cancer and the tumours studied in women showed no defined spatial pattern, with the single exception of stomach cancer. The trend in spatial fractional variance indicated the possibility of a change in the spatial pattern in breast, bladder and colorectal cancer in women during the last five-year period. The paper goes on to discuss ways in which spatio-temporal data are depicted in the case of cancer, and review the risk factors that may possibly influence the respective tumours' spatial patterns. CONCLUSION: In men, the marked geographical patterns of stomach, colorectal, lung and bladder cancer remained stable over time. Breast, colorectal and bladder cancer in women show signs of the possible appearance of a spatial pattern in Spain and should therefore be monitored.

Trends in oral cavity, pharyngeal, oesophageal and gastric cancer mortality rates in Spain, 1952-2006: an age-period-cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Although oral cavity, pharyngeal, oesophageal and gastric cancers share some risk factors, no comparative analysis of mortality rate trends in these illnesses has been undertaken in Spain. This study aimed to evaluate the independent effects of age, death period and birth cohort on the mortality rates of these tumours. METHODS: Specific and age-adjusted mortality rates by tumour and sex were analysed. Age-period-cohort log-linear models were fitted separately for each tumour and sex, and segmented regression models were used to detect changes in period- and cohort-effect curvatures. RESULTS: Among men, the period-effect curvatures for oral cavity/pharyngeal and oesophageal cancers displayed a mortality trend that rose until 1995 and then declined. Among women, oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer mortality increased throughout the study period whereas oesophageal cancer mortality decreased after 1970. Stomach cancer mortality decreased in both sexes from 1965 onwards. Lastly, the cohort-effect curvature showed a certain degree of similarity for all three tumours in both sexes, which was greater among oral cavity, pharyngeal and oesophageal cancers, with a change point in evidence, after which risk of death increased in cohorts born from the 1910-1920s onwards and decreased among the 1950-1960 cohorts and successive generations. This latter feature was likewise observed for stomach cancer. CONCLUSIONS: While the similarities of the cohort effects in oral cavity/pharyngeal, oesophageal and gastric tumours support the implication of shared risk factors, the more marked changes in cohort-effect curvature for oral cavity/pharyngeal and oesophageal cancer could be due to the greater influence of some risk factors in their aetiology, such as smoking and alcohol consumption. The increase in oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer mortality in women deserves further study.

Air quality modeling and mortality impact of fine particles reduction policies in Spain.

BACKGROUND: In recent years, Spain has implemented a number of air quality control measures that are expected to lead to a future reduction in fine particle concentrations and an ensuing positive impact on public health. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the impact on mortality attributable to a reduction in fine particle levels in Spain in 2014 in relation to the estimated level for 2007. METHODS: To estimate exposure, we constructed fine particle distribution models for Spain for 2007 (reference scenario) and 2014 (projected scenario) with a spatial resolution of 16×16km(2). In a second step, we used the concentration-response functions proposed by cohort studies carried out in Europe (European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects and Rome longitudinal cohort) and North America (American Cancer Society cohort, Harvard Six Cities study and Canadian national cohort) to calculate the number of attributable annual deaths corresponding to all causes, all non-accidental causes, ischemic heart disease and lung cancer among persons aged over 25 years (2005-2007 mortality rate data). We examined the effect of the Spanish demographic shift in our analysis using 2007 and 2012 population figures. RESULTS: Our model suggested that there would be a mean overall reduction in fine particle levels of 1µg/m(3) by 2014. Taking into account 2007 population data, between 8 and 15 all-cause deaths per 100,000 population could be postponed annually by the expected reduction in fine particle levels. For specific subgroups, estimates varied from 10 to 30 deaths for all non-accidental causes, from 1 to 5 for lung cancer, and from 2 to 6 for ischemic heart disease. The expected burden of preventable mortality would be even higher in the future due to the Spanish population growth. Taking into account the population older than 30 years in 2012, the absolute mortality impact estimate would increase approximately by 18%. CONCLUSIONS: Effective implementation of air quality measures in Spain, in a scenario with a short-term projection, would amount to an appreciable decline in fine particle concentrations, and this, in turn, would lead to notable health-related benefits. Recent European cohort studies strengthen the evidence of an association between long-term exposure to fine particles and health effects, and could enhance the health impact quantification in Europe. Air quality models can contribute to improved assessment of air pollution health impact estimates, particularly in study areas without air pollution monitoring data.

Pleural cancer mortality in Spain: time-trends and updating of predictions up to 2020.

BACKGROUND: A total of 2,514,346 metric tons (Mt) of asbestos were imported into Spain from 1906 until the ban on asbestos in 2002. Our objective was to study pleural cancer mortality trends as an indicator of mesothelioma mortality and update mortality predictions for the periods 2011-2015 and 2016-2020 in Spain. METHODS: Log-linear Poisson models were fitted to study the effect of age, period of death and birth cohort (APC) on mortality trends. Change points in cohort- and period-effect curvatures were assessed using segmented regression. Fractional power-link APC models were used to predict mortality until 2020. In addition, an alternative model based on national asbestos consumption figures was also used to perform long-term predictions. RESULTS: Pleural cancer deaths increased across the study period, rising from 491 in 1976-1980 to 1,249 in 2006-2010. Predictions for the five-year period 2016-2020 indicated a total of 1,319 pleural cancer deaths (264 deaths/year). Forecasts up to 2020 indicated that this increase would continue, though the age-adjusted rates showed a levelling-off in male mortality from 2001 to 2005, corresponding to the lower risk in post-1960 generations. Among women, rates were lower and the mortality trend was also different, indicating that occupational exposure was possibly the single factor having most influence on pleural cancer mortality. CONCLUSION: The cancer mortality-related consequences of human exposure to asbestos are set to persist and remain in evidence until the last surviving members of the exposed cohorts have disappeared. It can thus be assumed that occupationally-related deaths due to pleural mesothelioma will continue to occur in Spain until at least 2040.

Mortality of congenital osteochondrodysplasias: a nationwide registry-based study.

Osteochondrodysplasias are a heterogeneous group of more than 200 entities, characterized by abnormalities of cartilage, bone growth, and skeletal development. The aim of this study was to assess temporal and spatial changes in overall mortality due to these disorders in Spain, using data from a nationwide registry. Annual deaths showing osteochondrodysplasias as the underlying cause of death were selected using the International Classification of Diseases-9th revision (ICD-9) codes for the period 1981 through 1998, and ICD-10 codes for the period 1999 through 2008. Age-adjusted mortality rates were calculated by sex, and geographic analysis was performed by municipality. A total of 679 deaths were recorded (53% men). Age-adjusted mortality rates went from 0.09 (0.06, 0.12) per 100,000 population in 1981 to 0.05 (0.03, 0.08) per 100,000 population in 2008. A changing trend in the age-standardized mortality rate was in evidence, with an annual increase of 2.4% (-0.4, 5.2) from 1981 to 1994, and an annual decrease of -7.3% (-10.9, -3.5) from 1995 onwards. Geographic analysis showed some places situated in the west and south of Spain with greater risk of mortality. There is a need to identify risk factors and to increase overall knowledge about the life expectancy and epidemiology of osteochondrodysplasias.

Lead, mercury and cadmium in umbilical cord blood and its association with parental epidemiological variables and birth factors.

BACKGROUND: In Spain, few studies have evaluated prenatal exposure to heavy metals. The objective of this study was to describe lead, mercury and cadmium concentrations in blood from a sample of newborn-mother-father trios, as well as to investigate the association between metals in cord blood and parental variables. We also explored the relationship between cord blood metal concentrations and child characteristics at birth. METHODS: Metal correlations among family members were assessed using Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient. Linear regression was used to explore the association between parental variables and log-transformed cord blood lead and cord blood mercury concentrations. In the case of cadmium, tobit regression was used due to the existence of samples below the detection limit. The association between cord blood metal concentrations and child characteristics at birth was evaluated using linear regression. RESULTS: Geometric means for lead, mercury and cadmium were 14.09 µg/L, 6.72 µg/L and 0.27 µg/L in newborns; 19.80 µg/L, 3.90 µg/L and 0.53 µg/L in pregnant women; and 33.00 µg/L, 5.38 µg/L and 0.49 µg/L in men. Positive correlations were found between metal concentrations among members of the trio. Lead and cadmium concentrations were 15% and 22% higher in newborns from mothers who smoked during pregnancy, while mercury concentrations were 25% higher in newborns from mothers with greater fish intake. Cord-blood lead levels showed seasonal periodicity, with lower concentrations observed in winter. Cord blood cadmium concentrations over 0.29 µg/L were associated with lower 1-minute and 5-minute Apgar scores. CONCLUSIONS: These results reinforce the need to establish biomonitoring programs in Spain, and provide support for tobacco smoke and fish consumption as important preventable sources of heavy metal exposure in newborns. Additionally, our findings support the hypothesis that cadmium exposure might be deleterious to fetal development.

Analysis of matched geographical areas to study potential links between environmental exposure to oil refineries and non-Hodgkin lymphoma mortality in Spain.

BACKGROUND: Emissions from refineries include a wide range of substances, such as chrome, lead, nickel, zinc, arsenic, cadmium, benzene, dioxins and furans, all of which are recognized by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) as carcinogens.Various studies have shown an association between non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) and residence in the vicinity of industrial areas; however, evidence of specific association between refineries and residence in the vicinity has been suggested but not yet established.The aim of this study is to investigate potential links between environmental exposure to emissions from refineries and non-Hodgkin lymphoma mortality in Spain.The spatial distribution of NHL in Spain has an unusual pattern with regions some showing higher risk than others. METHODS: We designed an analysis of matched geographical areas to examine non-Hodgkin lymphoma mortality in the vicinity of the 10 refineries sited in Spain over the period 1997-2006. Population exposure to refineries was estimated on the basis of distance from town of residence to the facility in a 10 km buffer.We defined 10 km radius areas to perform the matching, accounting for population density, level of industrialization and socio-demographic factors of the area using principal components analysis.For the matched towns we evaluated the risk of NHL mortality associated with residence in the vicinity of the refineries and with different regions using mixed Poisson models. Then we study the residuals to assess a possible risk trend with distance. RESULTS: Relative risks (RRs) associated with exposure showed similar values for women and for men, 1.09 (0.97-1.24) and 1.12 (0.99-1.27). RRs for two regions were statistically significant: Canary Islands showed an excess of risk of 1.35 (1.05-1.72) for women and 1.50 (1.18-1.92) for men, whilst Galicia showed an excess of risk of 1.35 (1.04-1.75) for men, but not significant excess for women. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest a possible increased risk of NHL mortality among populations residing in the vicinity of refineries; however, a potential distance trend has not been shown. Regional effects in the Canary Islands and Galicia are significantly greater than the regional average.

Towns with extremely low mortality due to ischemic heart disease in Spain.

BACKGROUND: The cause of coronary disease inframortality in Spain is unknown. The aim of this study is to identify Spanish towns with very low ischemic heart disease mortality, describe their health and social characteristics, and analyze the relationship with a series of contextual factors. METHODS: We obtained the number of deaths registered for each of 8,122 Spanish towns in the periods 1989-1998 and 1999-2003. Expected deaths, standardized mortality ratio (SMR), smoothed Relative Risk (RR), and Posterior Probability (PP) of RR > 1 were calculated using Bayesian hierarchical models. Inframortality was defined as any town that displayed an RR below the 10th percentile, an SMR of under 1 for both sexes, and a PP of RR > 1 less than or equal to 0.002 for male and 0.005 for female mortality, during the two periods covered. All the remaining towns, except for those with high mortality classified as "tourist towns", were selected as controls. The association among socioeconomic, health, dietary, lifestyle and vascular risk factors was analyzed using sequential mixed logistic regression models, with province as the random-effects variable. RESULTS: We identified 32 towns in which ischemic heart disease mortality was half the national rate and four times lower than the European Union rate, situated in lightly populated provinces spread across the northern half of Spain, and revealed a surprising pattern of geographic aggegation for 23 of the 32 towns. Variables related with inframortality were: a less aged population (OR 0.93, 95% CI 0.89-0.99); a contextual dietary pattern marked by a high fish content (OR 2.13, 95% CI 1.38-3.28) and wine consumption (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.08-2.07); and a low prevalence of obesity (OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.22-1.01); and, in the case of towns of over 1000 inhabitants, a higher physician-population ratio (OR 3.80, 95% CI 1.17-12.3). CONCLUSIONS: Results indicate that dietary and health care factors have an influence on inframortality. The geographical aggregation suggests that other factors with a spatial pattern, e.g., genetic or environmental might also be implicated. These results will have to be confirmed by studies in situ, with objective measurements at an individual level.