Undiagnosed type 2 diabetes is common - intensified screening of established risk groups is imperative in Sweden: the SDPP cohort.

BACKGROUND: Undiagnosed type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a global problem. Current strategies for diagnosis in Sweden include screening individuals within primary healthcare who are of high risk, such as those with hypertension, obesity, prediabetes, family history of diabetes, or those who smoke daily. In this study, we aimed to estimate the proportion of individuals with undiagnosed T2D in Stockholm County and factors associated with T2D being diagnosed by healthcare. This information could improve strategies for detection. METHODS: We used data from the Stockholm Diabetes Prevention Programme (SDPP) cohort together with information from national and regional registers. Individuals without T2D aged 35-56 years at baseline were followed up after two ten-year periods. The proportion of diagnosed T2D was based on register information for 7664 individuals during period 1 and for 5148 during period 2. Undiagnosed T2D was assessed by oral glucose tolerance tests at the end of each period. With logistic regression, we analysed factors associated with being diagnosed among individuals with T2D. RESULTS: At the end of the first period, the proportion of individuals with T2D who had been diagnosed with T2D or not was similar (54.0% undiagnosed). At the end of the second period, the proportion of individuals with T2D was generally higher, but they were less likely to be undiagnosed (43.5%). The likelihood of being diagnosed was in adjusted analyses associated with overweight (OR=1.85; 95% CI 1.22-2.80), obesity (OR=2.73; 95% CI 1.76-4.23), higher fasting blood glucose (OR=2.11; 95% CI 1.67-2.66), and self-estimated poor general health (OR=2.42; 95% CI 1.07-5.45). Socioeconomic factors were not associated with being diagnosed among individuals with T2D. Most individuals (>71%) who developed T2D belonged to risk groups defined by having at least two of the prominent risk factors obesity, hypertension, daily smoking, prediabetes, or family history of T2D, including individuals with T2D who had not been diagnosed by healthcare. CONCLUSIONS: Nearly half of individuals who develop T2D during 10 years in Stockholm County are undiagnosed, emphasizing a need for intensified screening of T2D within primary healthcare. Screening can be targeted to individuals who have at least two prominent risk factors.

The influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on physical activity in Stockholm County - Evidence from time series models of smartphone measured daily steps data spanning over 3 years.

BACKGROUND: It has been reported that physical activity levels decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic. Previous studies often relied on self-reported physical activity, which has low accuracy. Studies based on objectively measured physical activity have had short data collection periods, thereby not allowing the consideration of pre-pandemic levels of physical activity or the influence over the different waves of the pandemic. METHODS: In this study, we utilize smartphone-measured step data from a nonprobability sample in Stockholm County, Sweden, where measures to limit the spread of COVID-19 differed from those in many other countries. The results are based on 522 individuals and 532,739 person-days with step data spanning from 2019 to 2021. Generalized additive models were fitted for each individual, and meta-regression was used to combine the results from individual models. RESULTS: Daily steps decreased during the first wave but increased during the third wave compared to individual pre-pandemic levels. The decrease in daily steps occurred primarily in young individuals and those with occupations allowing remote work. Individuals of retirement age on the contrary increased their daily steps during the same period. CONCLUSIONS: This study reveal that the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic was temporary and that younger age and the possibility of working from home were associated with a decreasing trend in physical activity.

Educational inequalities in blood pressure across the adult life course: Evidence from a 20-year follow-up study.

AIM: High blood pressure (BP) is a key contributor to the burden of disease. This study aimed to assess: a) educational differences across the entire BP distribution, and b) educational differences in the trajectories of BP across the adult life course. METHOD: Longitudinal data from the Stockholm Diabetes Prevention Program was analysed using quantile regression and linear mixed effects models. Models were adjusted for age, sex, lifestyle, and BP medication. RESULTS: Lower educational level was associated with higher systolic BP (SBP) at all follow-up periods. Age and sex adjusted mean SBP was 2.49 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.10, 3.87), 3.95 (95% CI 2.45, 5.45) and 2.61 (95% CI 1.09, 4.13) mmHg higher for people with pre-secondary education compared with post-secondary at baseline, 10 years and 20 years follow-up, respectively. Quantile regressions revealed that the inequalities could be observed across the entire BP continuum. Longitudinally analysed, people with pre-secondary education had 3.01 (95% CI 1.91-4.11) mmHg higher SBP than those with post-secondary education, age and sex adjusted. No significant convergence or divergence of the educational gaps in SBP was observed. Educational differences remained even after adjusting for lifestyle and BP medication. CONCLUSIONS: These results imply that public health interventions should aim to bring about distributional shifts in blood pressure, rather than exclusively focusing on hypertensive people, if they are to effectively minimize the educational disparities in blood pressure and its consequences.

Individual and neighborhood risk factors of hospital admission and death during the COVID-19 pandemic: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) disproportionately affects minority populations in the USA. Sweden - like other Nordic countries - have less income and wealth inequality but lacks data on the socioeconomic impact on the risk of adverse outcomes due to COVID-19. METHODS: This population-wide study from March 2020 to March 2022 included all adults in Stockholm, except those in nursing homes or receiving in-home care. Data sources include hospitals, primary care (individual diagnoses), the Swedish National Tax Agency (death dates), the Total Population Register "RTB" (sex, age, birth country), the Household Register (size of household), the Integrated Database For Labor Market Research "LISA" (educational level, income, and occupation), and SmiNet (COVID data). Individual exposures include education, income, type of work and ability to work from home, living area and living conditions as well as the individual country of origin and co-morbidities. Additionally, we have data on the risks associated with living areas. We used a Cox proportional hazards model and logistic regression to estimate associations. Area-level covariates were used in a principal component analysis to generate a measurement of neighborhood deprivation. As outcomes, we used hospitalization and death due to COVID-19. RESULTS: Among the 1,782,125 persons, male sex, comorbidities, higher age, and not being born in Sweden increase the risk of hospitalization and death. So does lower education and lower income, the lowest incomes doubled the risk of death from COVID-19. Area estimates, where the model includes individual risks, show that high population density and a high percentage of foreign-born inhabitants increased the risk of hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: Segregation and deprivation are public health issues elucidated by COVID-19. Neighborhood deprivation, prevalent in Stockholm, adds to individual risks and is associated with hospitalization and death. This finding is paramount for governments, agencies, and healthcare institutions interested in targeted interventions.

Should Nicotine Replacement Therapy be Provided Free of Charge? A Cost-Utility Analysis in Sweden.

INTRODUCTION: Treatment with nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) during an attempt to quit smoking increases the likelihood of success by about 55%. However, out-of-pocket payment for NRT can hinder its use. AIMS AND METHODS: This study aims therefore to assess the cost-effectiveness of subsidizing NRT in Sweden. A homogeneous cohort-based Markov model was used to assess the lifetime costs and effects of subsidized NRT from a payer and societal perspective. Data to populate the model were retrieved from the literature, and selected parameters were varied in deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to assess robustness of model outputs. Costs are presented in USD, year 2021. RESULTS: A 12-week treatment with NRT was estimated to cost USD 632 (474-790) per person. From a societal perspective, subsidized NRT was a cost-saving alternative in 98.5% of the simulations. NRT is cost-saving across all ages, but the health and economic gains are somewhat larger among younger smokers from a societal perspective. When a payer perspective was used, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was estimated at 14 480 (11 721-18 515) USD per QALY which was cost-effective at a willingness to pay of 50 000 USD per QALY in 100 % of the simulations. Results were robust with realistic changes in the inputs during scenario and sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Subsidizing NRT is potentially a cost-saving smoking cessation strategy from a societal perspective and cost-effective from a payer perspective. IMPLICATIONS: This study found that subsidizing NRT is potentially a cost-saving smoking cessation policy alternative compared to current practice from a societal perspective. From a healthcare payer perspective, subsidizing NRT is estimated to cost USD 14 480 to gain an extra QALY. NRT is cost-saving across all ages, but the health and economic gains are somewhat larger among younger smokers from a societal perspective. Moreover, subsidizing NRT removes the financial barriers that are mostly faced by socioeconomically disadvantaged smokers which might reduce health inequalities. Thus, future economic evaluations should further investigate the health inequality impacts with methods that are more suitable for this.

Long-term Air Pollution Exposure and Pneumonia-related Mortality in a Large Pooled European Cohort.

Rationale: Ambient air pollution exposure has been linked to mortality from chronic cardiorespiratory diseases, while evidence on respiratory infections remains more limited. Objectives: We examined the association between long-term exposure to air pollution and pneumonia-related mortality in adults in a pool of eight European cohorts. Methods: Within the multicenter project ELAPSE (Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe), we pooled data from eight cohorts among six European countries. Annual mean residential concentrations in 2010 for fine particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC), and ozone were estimated using Europe-wide hybrid land-use regression models. We applied stratified Cox proportional hazard models to investigate the associations between air pollution and pneumonia, influenza, and acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) mortality. Measurements and Main Results: Of 325,367 participants, 712 died from pneumonia and influenza combined, 682 from pneumonia, and 695 from ALRI during a mean follow-up of 19.5 years. NO2 and BC were associated with 10-12% increases in pneumonia and influenza combined mortality, but 95% confidence intervals included unity (hazard ratios, 1.12 [0.99-1.26] per 10 µg/m3 for NO2; 1.10 [0.97-1.24] per 0.5 10-5m-1 for BC). Associations with pneumonia and ALRI mortality were almost identical. We detected effect modification suggesting stronger associations with NO2 or BC in overweight, employed, or currently smoking participants compared with normal weight, unemployed, or nonsmoking participants. Conclusions: Long-term exposure to combustion-related air pollutants NO2 and BC may be associated with mortality from lower respiratory infections, but larger studies are needed to estimate these associations more precisely.

Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and bladder cancer incidence in a pooled European cohort: the ELAPSE project.

BACKGROUND: The evidence linking ambient air pollution to bladder cancer is limited and mixed. METHODS: We assessed the associations of bladder cancer incidence with residential exposure to fine particles (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC), warm season ozone (O3) and eight PM2.5 elemental components (copper, iron, potassium, nickel, sulfur, silicon, vanadium, and zinc) in a pooled cohort (N = 302,493). Exposures were primarily assessed based on 2010 measurements and back-extrapolated to the baseline years. We applied Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for individual- and area-level potential confounders. RESULTS: During an average of 18.2 years follow-up, 967 bladder cancer cases occurred. We observed a positive though statistically non-significant association between PM2.5 and bladder cancer incidence. Hazard Ratios (HR) were 1.09 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.93-1.27) per 5 µg/m3 for 2010 exposure and 1.06 (95% CI: 0.99-1.14) for baseline exposure. Effect estimates for NO2, BC and O3 were close to unity. A positive association was observed with PM2.5 zinc (HR 1.08; 95% CI: 1.00-1.16 per 10 ng/m3). CONCLUSIONS: We found suggestive evidence of an association between long-term PM2.5 mass exposure and bladder cancer, strengthening the evidence from the few previous studies. The association with zinc in PM2.5 suggests the importance of industrial emissions.

Characterization of data-driven clusters in diabetes-free adults and their utility for risk stratification of type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: The prevention of type 2 diabetes is challenging due to the variable effects of risk factors at an individual level. Data-driven methods could be useful to detect more homogeneous groups based on risk factor variability. The aim of this study was to derive characteristic phenotypes using cluster analysis of common risk factors and to assess their utility to stratify the risk of type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Data on 7317 diabetes-free adults from Sweden were used in the main analysis and on 2332 diabetes-free adults from Mexico for external validation. Clusters were based on sex, family history of diabetes, educational attainment, fasting blood glucose and insulin levels, estimated insulin resistance and ß-cell function, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and BMI. The risk of type 2 diabetes was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models. The predictive accuracy and long-term stability of the clusters were then compared to different definitions of prediabetes. RESULTS: Six risk phenotypes were identified independently in both cohorts: very low-risk (VLR), low-risk low ß-cell function (LRLB), low-risk high ß-cell function (LRHB), high-risk high blood pressure (HRHBP), high-risk ß-cell failure (HRBF), and high-risk insulin-resistant (HRIR). Compared to the LRHB cluster, the VLR and LRLB clusters showed a lower risk, while the HRHBP, HRBF, and HRIR clusters showed a higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes. The high-risk clusters, as a group, had a better predictive accuracy than prediabetes and adequate stability after 20 years. CONCLUSIONS: Phenotypes derived using cluster analysis were useful in stratifying the risk of type 2 diabetes among diabetes-free adults in two independent cohorts. These results could be used to develop more precise public health interventions.

Fruit and vegetable intake and risk of prediabetes and type 2 diabetes: results from a 20-year long prospective cohort study in Swedish men and women.

PURPOSE: To investigate the association between fruit and vegetable intake (FVI) and the risk of developing prediabetes and type 2 diabetes (T2D) in a Swedish prospective cohort study. METHODS: Subjects were 6961 men and women aged 35-56 years old at baseline, participating in the Stockholm Diabetes Prevention Program cohort. By design, the cohort was enriched by 50% with subjects that had family history of diabetes. Anthropometric measurements, oral glucose tolerance tests and questionnaires on lifestyle and dietary factors were carried out at baseline and two follow-up occasions. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios with 95% CIs. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up time of 20 ± 4 years, 1024 subjects developed T2D and 870 prediabetes. After adjustments for confounders, the highest tertile of total FVI was associated with a lower risk of developing T2D in men (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.60-0.96). There was also an inverse association between total fruit intake and prediabetes risk in men, with the HR for the highest tertile being 0.76 (95% CI 0.58-1.00). As for subtypes, higher intake of apples/pears was inversely associated with T2D risk in both sexes, whereas higher intakes of banana, cabbage and tomato were positively associated with T2D or prediabetes risk in either men or women. CONCLUSION: We found an inverse association between higher total FVI and T2D risk and between higher fruit intake and prediabetes risk, in men but not in women. Certain fruit and vegetable subtypes showed varying results and require further investigation.

Long term exposure to air pollution and kidney parenchyma cancer - Effects of low-level air pollution: a Study in Europe (ELAPSE).

BACKGROUND: Particulate matter (PM) is classified as a group 1 human carcinogen. Previous experimental studies suggest that particles in diesel exhaust induce oxidative stress, inflammation and DNA damage in kidney cells, but the evidence from population studies linking air pollution to kidney cancer is limited. METHODS: We pooled six European cohorts (N = 302,493) to assess the association of residential exposure to fine particles (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC), warm season ozone (O3) and eight elemental components of PM2.5 (copper, iron, potassium, nickel, sulfur, silicon, vanadium, and zinc) with cancer of the kidney parenchyma. The main exposure model was developed for year 2010. We defined kidney parenchyma cancer according to the International Classification of Diseases 9th and 10th Revision codes 189.0 and C64. We applied Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for potential confounders at the individual and area-level. RESULTS: The participants were followed from baseline (1985-2005) to 2011-2015. A total of 847 cases occurred during 5,497,514 person-years of follow-up (average 18.2 years). Median (5-95%) exposure levels of NO2, PM2.5, BC and O3 were 24.1 µg/m3 (12.8-39.2), 15.3 µg/m3 (8.6-19.2), 1.6 10-5 m-1 (0.7-2.1), and 87.0 µg/m3 (70.3-97.4), respectively. The results of the fully adjusted linear analyses showed a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.03 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.92, 1.15) per 10 µg/m³ NO2, 1.04 (95% CI: 0.88, 1.21) per 5 µg/m³ PM2.5, 0.99 (95% CI: 0.89, 1.11) per 0.5 10-5 m-1 BCE, and 0.88 (95% CI: 0.76, 1.02) per 10 µg/m³ O3. We did not find associations between any of the elemental components of PM2.5 and cancer of the kidney parenchyma. CONCLUSION: We did not observe an association between long-term ambient air pollution exposure and incidence of kidney parenchyma cancer.