Economic evaluation of short treatment for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, Ethiopia and South Africa: the STREAM trial.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate cost changes for health systems and participants, resulting from switching to short treatment regimens for multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis. METHODS: We compared the costs to health systems and participants of long (20 to 22 months) and short (9 to 11 months) MDR tuberculosis regimens in Ethiopia and South Africa. Cost data were collected from participants in the STREAM phase-III randomized controlled trial and we estimated health-system costs using bottom-up and top-down approaches. A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed by calculating the incremental cost per unfavourable outcome avoided. FINDINGS: Health-care costs per participant in South Africa were 8340.7 United States dollars (US$) with the long and US$ 6618.0 with the short regimen; in Ethiopia, they were US$ 6096.6 and US$ 4552.3, respectively. The largest component of the saving was medication costs in South Africa (67%; US$ 1157.0 of total US$ 1722.8) and social support costs in Ethiopia (35%, US$ 545.2 of total US$ 1544.3). In Ethiopia, trial participants on the short regimen reported lower expenditure for supplementary food (mean reduction per participant: US$ 225.5) and increased working hours (i.e. 667 additional hours over 132 weeks). The probability that the short regimen was cost-effective was greater than 95% when the value placed on avoiding an unfavourable outcome was less than US$ 19 000 in Ethiopia and less than US$ 14 500 in South Africa. CONCLUSION: The short MDR tuberculosis treatment regimen was associated with a substantial reduction in health-system costs and a lower financial burden for participants.

Reducing delays to multidrug-resistant tuberculosis case detection through a revised routine surveillance system.

BACKGROUND: Implementation of an effective Tuberculosis Routine Surveillance System in low-income countries like Tanzania is problematic, despite being an essential tool for the detection and effective monitoring of drug resistant tuberculosis. Long delays in specimen transportation from the facilities to reference laboratory and results dissemination back to the health facilities, result in poor patient management, particularly where multidrug-resistant tuberculosis disease is present. METHODS: Following a detailed qualitative study, a pilot intervention of a revised Tuberculosis Routine Surveillance System was implemented in Mwanza region, Tanzania. This included the use of rapid molecular methods for the detection of both tuberculosis and drug resistance using Xpert MTB/RIF in some Mwanza sites, the use of Xpert MTB/RIF and Line Probe Assay at the Central Tuberculosis Reference Laboratory, a revised communication strategy and interventions to address the issue of poor form completion. A before and after comparison of the intervention on the number of drug resistant tuberculosis cases identified and the time taken for results feedback to the requesting site was reported. RESULTS: The revised system for previously treated cases tested at the Central Reference Laboratory was able to obtain the following findings; the number of cases tested increased from 75 in 2016 to 185 in 2017. The times for specimen transportation from health facilities to the reference laboratory were reduced by 22% (from 9 to 7 days). The median time for the district to receive results was reduced by 36% (from 11 to 7 days). Overall the number of drug resistant tuberculosis cases starting treatment increased by 67% (from 12 to 20). CONCLUSION: Detection of drug resistance could significantly be enhanced, and delays reduced by introduction of new technologies and improved routine surveillance system, including better communication using mobile applications such as 'WhatsApp' and close follow-ups. A larger scale study is now merited to ascertain if these benefits are robust across different contexts.

Modelling the impact of chest X-ray and alternative triage approaches prior to seeking a tuberculosis diagnosis.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis is a major challenge to health in the developing world. Triage prior to diagnostic testing could potentially reduce the volume of tests and costs associated with using the more accurate, but costly, Xpert MTB/RIF assay. An effective methodology to predict the impact of introducing triage prior to tuberculosis diagnostic testing could be useful in helping to guide policy. METHODS: The development and use of operational modelling to project the impact on case detection and health system costs of alternative triage approaches for tuberculosis, with or without X-ray, based on data from Porto Alegre City, Brazil. RESULTS: Most of the triage approaches modelled without X-ray were predicted to provide no significant benefit. One approach based on an artificial neural network applied to patient and symptom characteristics was projected to increase case detection (82% vs. 75%) compared to microscopy, and reduce costs compared to Xpert without triage. In addition, use of X-ray before diagnostic testing for HIV-negative patients could maintain diagnostic yield of using Xpert without triage, and reduce costs. CONCLUSION: A model for the impact assessment of alternative triage approaches has been tested. The results from using the approach demonstrate its usefulness in informing policy in a typical high burden setting for tuberculosis.

Modeling the patient and health system impacts of alternative xpert® MTB/RIF algorithms for the diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: To reduce global tuberculosis (TB) burden, the active disease must be diagnosed quickly and accurately and patients should be treated and cured. In Ethiopia, TB diagnosis mainly relies on spot-morning-spot (SMS) sputum sample smear analysis using Ziehl-Neelsen staining techniques (ZN). Since 2014 targeted use of xpert has been implemented. New diagnostic techniques have higher sensitivity and are likely to detect more cases if routinely implemented. The objective of our study was to project the effects of alternative diagnostic algorithms on the patient, health system, and costs, and identify cost-effective algorithms that increase TB case detection in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. METHODS: An observational quantitative modeling framework was applied using the Virtual Implementation approach. The model was designed to represent the operational and epidemiological context of Addis Ababa, the capital city of Ethiopia. We compared eight diagnostic algorithm with ZN microscopy, light emitting diode (LED) fluorescence microscopy and Xpert MTB/RIF. Interventions with an annualized cost per averted disability adjusted life year (DALY) of less than the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita are considered cost-effective interventions. RESULTS: With a cost lower than the average per-capita GDP (US$690 for Ethiopia) for each averted disability adjusted life year (DALY), three of the modeled algorithms are cost-effective. Implementing them would have important patient, health system, and population-level effects in the context of Addis Ababa ❖ The full roll-out of Xpert MTB/RIF as the primary test for all presumptive TB cases would avert 91170 DALYs (95% credible interval [CrI] 54888 - 127448) with an additional health system cost of US$ 11.6 million over the next 10 years. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) is $370 per DALY averted. ❖ Same day LED fluorescence microscopy for all presumptive TB cases combined with Xpert MTB/RIF targeted to HIV-positive and High multidrug resistant (MDR) risk groups would avert 73600 DALYs( 95% CrI 48373 - 99214) with an additional cost of US$5.1 million over the next 10 years. The ICER is $169per DALY averted. ❖ Same-day LED fluorescence microscopy for all presumptive TB cases (and no Xpert MTB/RIF) would avert 43580 DALYs with a reduction cost of US$ 0.2 million over the next 10years. The ICER is $13 per DALY averted. CONCLUSIONS: The full roll-out of Xpert MTB/RIF is predicted to be the best option to substantially reduce the TB burden in Addis Ababa and is considered cost effective. However, the investment cost to implement this is far beyond the budget of the national TB control program. Targeted use of Xpert MTB/RIF for HIV positive and high MDR risk groups with same-day LED fluorescence microscopy for all other presumptive TB cases is an affordable alternative.

Developments in Impact Assessment of New Diagnostic Algorithms for Tuberculosis Control.

A modified presentation of the impact assessment framework is proposed that improves accessibility while continuing to provide a checklist of the evidence needed to support policy decisions on the implementation of new tools for the diagnosis of tuberculosis.

Operational modelling to guide implementation and scale-up of diagnostic tests within the health system: exploring opportunities for parasitic disease diagnostics based on example application for tuberculosis.

Research and innovation in the diagnosis of infectious and parasitic diseases has led to the development of several promising diagnostic tools, for example in malaria there is extensive literature concerning the use of rapid diagnostic tests. This means policymakers in many low and middle income countries need to make difficult decisions about which of the recommended tools and approaches to implement and scale-up. The test characteristics (e.g. sensitivity and specificity) of the tools alone are not a sufficient basis on which to make these decisions as policymakers need to also consider the best combination of tools, whether the new tools should complement or replace existing diagnostics and who should be tested. Diagnostic strategies need dovetailing to different epidemiology and structural resource constraints (e.g. existing diagnostic pathways, human resources and laboratory capacity). We propose operational modelling to assist with these complex decisions. Projections of patient, health system and cost impacts are essential and operational modelling of the relevant elements of the health system could provide these projections and support rational decisions. We demonstrate how the technique of operational modelling applied in the developing world to support decisions on diagnostics for tuberculosis, could in a parallel way, provide useful insights to support implementation of appropriate diagnostic innovations for parasitic diseases.

Clinical Impact of the Line Probe Assay and Xpert® MTB/RIF Assay in the Presumptive Diagnosis of Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis in Brazil: A Pragmatic Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND: Rapid molecular methods such as the line probe assay (LPA) and Xpert® MTB/RIF assay (Xpert) have been recommended by the World Health Organization for drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) diagnosis. We conducted an interventional trial in DR-TB reference centers in Brazil to evaluate the impact of the use of LPA and Xpert. METHODS: Patients with DR-TB were eligible if their drug susceptibility testing results were available to the treating physician at the time of consultation. The standard reference MGITTM 960 was compared with Xpert (arm 1) and LPA (arm 2). Effectiveness was considered as the start of the appropriate TB regimen that matched drug susceptibility testing (DST) and the proportions of culture conversion and favorable treatment outcomes after 6 months. RESULTS: A higher rate of empirical treatment was observed with MGIT alone than with the Xpert assay (97.0% vs. 45.0%) and LPA (98.2% vs. 67.5%). Patients started appropriate TB treatment more quickly than those in the MGIT group (median 15.0 vs. 40.5 days; p<0.01) in arm 1. Compared to the MGIT group, culture conversion after 6 months was higher for Xpert in arm 1 (90.9% vs. 79.3%, p=0.39) and LPA in arm 2 (80.0% vs. 83.0%, p=0.81). CONCLUSIONS: In the Xpert arm, there was a significant reduction in days to the start of appropriate anti-TB treatment and a trend towards greater culture conversion in the sixth month.

Routine surveillance for the identification of drug resistant Tuberculosis in Tanzania: A cross-sectional study of stakeholders' perceptions.

BACKGROUND: Routine surveillance is required to monitor the performance of tuberculosis diagnostic programme and is essential for the rapid detection of drug resistance. The main objective of this study was to explore the effectiveness and stakeholder perception of the current routine surveillance system for previously treated tuberculosis cases in Tanzania with a view to identify interventions to improve and accelerate positive patient outcomes. METHODS: A study using quantitative and qualitative methods of data collection including in-depth interviews and focus group discussions with health care service providers was conducted in four regions. Quantitative data were extracted from the routine databases to assess performance. RESULTS: Quantitative findings from 2011 to 2013 showed 2,750 specimens from previously treated TB cases were received at the reference laboratory. The number increased year on year, but even in the most recent year was only 61% of that expected. The median and interquartile range of turnaround time in days from specimen reception to results reported for smear microscopy, culture and drug susceptibility testing were 1(1, 1), 61(43, 71) and 129(72, 170) respectively. Contaminated specimens were reported in 3.6% of cases. The qualitative analysis showed the system of sending specimens using postal services was seen to be efficient by participants. However, there were many challenges and significant delays in specimens reaching the reference laboratory associated with lack of funds to transfer specimens, weak form completion, inadequate training and poor supervision. These all adversely affected the implementation of the routine surveillance system. CONCLUSIONS: Many issues limit the effectiveness of the routine surveillance system in Tanzania. Priority areas for strengthening are; specimen transportation, supervision and availability of commodities. A pilot study of a revised routine surveillance system that takes into account the observations from this study alongside improved access to drug susceptibility testing using Xpert MTB/RIF should be considered.

Use of GeneXpert and the role of an expert panel in improving clinical diagnosis of smear-negative tuberculosis cases.

SETTING: A high proportion of notified tuberculosis cases in the Philippines are clinically diagnosed (63%) as opposed to bacteriologically confirmed. Better understanding of this phenomenon is required to improve tuberculosis control. OBJECTIVES: To determine the percentage of smear negative presumptive tuberculosis patients that would be diagnosed by GeneXpert; compare clinical characteristics of patients diagnosed as tuberculosis cases; and review the impact that the current single government physician and a reconstituted Tuberculosis Diagnostic committee (expert panel) may have on tuberculosis over-diagnosis. DESIGN: This a cross-sectional study of 152 patients 15-85 years old with two negative Direct Sputum Smear Microscopy results, with abnormal chest X-ray who underwent GeneXpert testing and review by an expert panel. RESULTS: Thirty-two percent (48/152) of the sample were Xpert positive and 93% (97/104) of GeneXpert negatives were clinically diagnosed by a single physician. Typical symptoms and X-ray findings were higher in bacteriologically confirmed tuberculosis. When compared to the GeneXpert results the Expert panel's sensitivity for active tuberculosis was high (97.5%, 39/40), specificity was low (40.2%, 35/87). CONCLUSION: Using the GeneXpert would increase the level of bacteriologically confirmed tuberculosis substantially among presumptive tuberculosis. An expert panel will greatly reduce over-diagnosis usually seen when a decision is made by a single physician.

Clinical Impact of the Line Probe Assay and Xpert® MTB/RIF Assay in the Presumptive Diagnosis of Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis in Brazil: A Pragmatic Clinical Trial

ABSTRACT Background: Rapid molecular methods such as the line probe assay (LPA) and Xpert® MTB/RIF assay (Xpert) have been recommended by the World Health Organization for drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) diagnosis. We conducted an interventional trial in DR-TB reference centers in Brazil to evaluate the impact of the use of LPA and Xpert. Methods: Patients with DR-TB were eligible if their drug susceptibility testing results were available to the treating physician at the time of consultation. The standard reference MGITTM 960 was compared with Xpert (arm 1) and LPA (arm 2). Effectiveness was considered as the start of the appropriate TB regimen that matched drug susceptibility testing (DST) and the proportions of culture conversion and favorable treatment outcomes after 6 months. Results: A higher rate of empirical treatment was observed with MGIT alone than with the Xpert assay (97.0% vs. 45.0%) and LPA (98.2% vs. 67.5%). Patients started appropriate TB treatment more quickly than those in the MGIT group (median 15.0 vs. 40.5 days; p<0.01) in arm 1. Compared to the MGIT group, culture conversion after 6 months was higher for Xpert in arm 1 (90.9% vs. 79.3%, p=0.39) and LPA in arm 2 (80.0% vs. 83.0%, p=0.81). Conclusions: In the Xpert arm, there was a significant reduction in days to the start of appropriate anti-TB treatment and a trend towards greater culture conversion in the sixth month.

Economic evaluation of a shortened standardised treatment regimen of antituberculosis drugs for patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (STREAM): study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) poses a serious financial challenge to health systems and patients. The current treatment for patients with MDR-TB takes up to 24 months to complete. Evidence for a shorter regimen which differs from the standard WHO recommended MDR-TB regimen and typically lasts between 9 and 12 months has been reported from Bangladesh. This evaluation aims to assess the economic impact of a shortened regimen on patients and health systems. This evaluation is innovative as it combines patient and health system costs, as well as operational modelling in assessing the impact. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: An economic evaluation nested in a clinical trial with 2 arms will be performed at 4 facilities. The primary outcome measure is incremental cost to the health system of the study regimen compared with the control regimen. Secondary outcome measures are mean incremental costs incurred by patients by treatment outcome; patient costs by category (direct medical costs, transport, food and accommodation costs, and cost of guardians/accompanying persons and lost time); health systems cost by category and drugs; and costs related to serious adverse events. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study has been evaluated and approved by the Ethics Advisory Group of the International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease; South African Medical Research Ethics Committee; Wits Health Consortium Protocol Review Committee; University of the Witwatersrand Human Research Ethics Committee; University of Kwazulu-Natal Biomedical Research Ethics Committee; St Peter TB Specialized Hospital Ethical Review Committee; AHRI-ALERT Ethical Review Committee, and all participants will provide written informed consent. The results of the economic evaluation will be published in a peer-reviewed journal. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN78372190.

Infectious disease and health systems modelling for local decision making to control neglected tropical diseases.

Most neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) have complex life cycles and are challenging to control. The "2020 goals" of control and elimination as a public health programme for a number of NTDs are the subject of significant international efforts and investments. Beyond 2020 there will be a drive to maintain these gains and to push for true local elimination of transmission. However, these diseases are affected by variations in vectors, human demography, access to water and sanitation, access to interventions and local health systems. We therefore argue that there will be a need to develop local quantitative expertise to support elimination efforts. If available now, quantitative analyses would provide updated estimates of the burden of disease, assist in the design of locally appropriate control programmes, estimate the effectiveness of current interventions and support 'real-time' updates to local operations. Such quantitative tools are increasingly available at an international scale for NTDs, but are rarely tailored to local scenarios. Localised expertise not only provides an opportunity for more relevant analyses, but also has a greater chance of developing positive feedback between data collection and analysis by demonstrating the value of data. This is essential as rational program design relies on good quality data collection. It is also likely that if such infrastructure is provided for NTDs there will be an additional impact on the health system more broadly. Locally tailored quantitative analyses can help achieve sustainable and effective control of NTDs, but also underpin the development of local health care systems.

Do high rates of empirical treatment undermine the potential effect of new diagnostic tests for tuberculosis in high-burden settings?

In tuberculosis-endemic settings, patients are often treated empirically, meaning that they are placed on treatment based on clinical symptoms or tests that do not provide a microbiological diagnosis (eg, chest radiography). New tests for tuberculosis, such as the Xpert MTB/RIF assay (Cepheid, Sunnyvale, CA, USA), are being implemented at substantial cost. To inform policy and rationally drive implementation, data are needed for how these tests affect morbidity, mortality, transmission, and population-level tuberculosis burden. If people diagnosed by use of new diagnostics would have received empirical treatment a few days later anyway, then the incremental benefit might be small. Will new diagnostics substantially improve outcomes and disease burden, or simply displace empirical treatment? Will the extent and accuracy of empirical treatment change with the introduction of a new test? In this Personal View, we review emerging data for how empirical treatment is frequently same-day, and might still be the predominant form of treatment in high-burden settings, even after Xpert implementation; and how Xpert might displace so-called true-positive, rather than false-positive, empirical treatment. We suggest types of studies needed to accurately assess the effect of new tuberculosis tests and the role of empirical treatment in real-world settings. Until such questions can be addressed, and empirical treatment is appropriately characterised, we postulate that the estimated population-level effect of new tests such as Xpert might be substantially overestimated.

Assessment of the patient, health system, and population effects of Xpert MTB/RIF and alternative diagnostics for tuberculosis in Tanzania: an integrated modelling approach.

BACKGROUND: Several promising new diagnostic methods and algorithms for tuberculosis have been endorsed by WHO. National tuberculosis programmes now face the decision on which methods to implement and where to place them in the diagnostic algorithm. METHODS: We used an integrated model to assess the effects of different algorithms of Xpert MTB/RIF and light-emitting diode (LED) fluorescence microscopy in Tanzania. To understand the effects of new diagnostics from the patient, health system, and population perspective, the model incorporated and linked a detailed operational component and a transmission component. The model was designed to represent the operational and epidemiological context of Tanzania and was used to compare the effects and cost-effectiveness of different diagnostic options. FINDINGS: Among the diagnostic options considered, we identified three strategies as cost effective in Tanzania. Full scale-up of Xpert would have the greatest population-level effect with the highest incremental cost: 346 000 disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted with an additional cost of US$36·9 million over 10 years. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of Xpert scale-up ($169 per DALY averted, 95% credible interval [CrI] 104-265) is below the willingness-to-pay threshold ($599) for Tanzania. Same-day LED fluorescence microscopy is the next most effective strategy with an ICER of $45 (95% CrI 25-74), followed by LED fluorescence microscopy with an ICER of $29 (6-59). Compared with same-day LED fluorescence microscopy and Xpert full rollout, targeted use of Xpert in presumptive tuberculosis cases with HIV infection, either as an initial diagnostic test or as a follow-on test to microscopy, would produce DALY gains at a higher incremental cost and therefore is dominated in the context of Tanzania. INTERPRETATION: For Tanzania, this integrated modelling approach predicts that full rollout of Xpert is a cost-effective option for tuberculosis diagnosis and has the potential to substantially reduce the national tuberculosis burden. It also estimates the substantial level of funding that will need to be mobilised to translate this into clinical practice. This approach could be adapted and replicated in other developing countries to inform rational health policy formulation.

Modelling the impacts of new diagnostic tools for tuberculosis in developing countries to enhance policy decisions.

The introduction and scale-up of new tools for the diagnosis of Tuberculosis (TB) in developing countries has the potential to make a huge difference to the lives of millions of people living in poverty. To achieve this, policy makers need the information to make the right decisions about which new tools to implement and where in the diagnostic algorithm to apply them most effectively. These decisions are difficult as the new tools are often expensive to implement and use, and the health system and patient impacts uncertain, particularly in developing countries where there is a high burden of TB. The authors demonstrate that a discrete event simulation model could play a significant part in improving and informing these decisions. The feasibility of linking the discrete event simulation to a dynamic epidemiology model is also explored in order to take account of longer term impacts on the incidence of TB. Results from two diagnostic districts in Tanzania are used to illustrate how the approach could be used to improve decisions.