Randomized Trial of BCG Vaccine to Protect against Covid-19 in Health Care Workers.

BACKGROUND: The bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine has immunomodulatory "off-target" effects that have been hypothesized to protect against coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). METHODS: In this international, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, we randomly assigned health care workers to receive the BCG-Denmark vaccine or saline placebo and followed them for 12 months. Symptomatic Covid-19 and severe Covid-19, the primary outcomes, were assessed at 6 months; the primary analyses involved the modified intention-to-treat population, which was restricted to participants with a negative test for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 at baseline. RESULTS: A total of 3988 participants underwent randomization; recruitment ceased before the planned sample size was reached owing to the availability of Covid-19 vaccines. The modified intention-to-treat population included 84.9% of the participants who underwent randomization: 1703 in the BCG group and 1683 in the placebo group. The estimated risk of symptomatic Covid-19 by 6 months was 14.7% in the BCG group and 12.3% in the placebo group (risk difference, 2.4 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.7 to 5.5; P = 0.13). The risk of severe Covid-19 by 6 months was 7.6% in the BCG group and 6.5% in the placebo group (risk difference, 1.1 percentage points; 95% CI, -1.2 to 3.5; P = 0.34); the majority of participants who met the trial definition of severe Covid-19 were not hospitalized but were unable to work for at least 3 consecutive days. In supplementary and sensitivity analyses that used less conservative censoring rules, the risk differences were similar but the confidence intervals were narrower. There were five hospitalizations due to Covid-19 in each group (including one death in the placebo group). The hazard ratio for any Covid-19 episode in the BCG group as compared with the placebo group was 1.23 (95% CI, 0.96 to 1.59). No safety concerns were identified. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccination with BCG-Denmark did not result in a lower risk of Covid-19 among health care workers than placebo. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and others; BRACE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04327206.).

BECC438b TLR4 agonist supports unique immune response profiles from nasal and muscular DTaP pertussis vaccines in murine challenge models.

The protection afforded by acellular pertussis vaccines wanes over time, and there is a need to develop improved vaccine formulations. Options to improve the vaccines involve the utilization of different adjuvants and administration via different routes. While intramuscular (IM) vaccination provides a robust systemic immune response, intranasal (IN) vaccination theoretically induces a localized immune response within the nasal cavity. In the case of a Bordetella pertussis infection, IN vaccination results in an immune response that is similar to natural infection, which provides the longest duration of protection. Current acellular formulations utilize an alum adjuvant, and antibody levels wane over time. To overcome the current limitations with the acellular vaccine, we incorporated a novel TLR4 agonist, BECC438b, into both IM and IN acellular formulations to determine its ability to protect against infection in a murine airway challenge model. Following immunization and challenge, we observed that DTaP + BECC438b reduced bacterial burden within the lung and trachea for both administration routes when compared with mock-vaccinated and challenged (MVC) mice. Interestingly, IN administration of DTaP + BECC438b induced a Th1-polarized immune response, while IM vaccination polarized toward a Th2 immune response. RNA sequencing analysis of the lung demonstrated that DTaP + BECC438b activates biological pathways similar to natural infection. Additionally, IN administration of DTaP + BECC438b activated the expression of genes involved in a multitude of pathways associated with the immune system. Overall, these data suggest that BECC438b adjuvant and the IN vaccination route can impact efficacy and responses of pertussis vaccines in pre-clinical mouse models.

Handling missing data when estimating causal effects with Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation.

Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) is increasingly used for doubly robust causal inference, but how missing data should be handled when using TMLE with data-adaptive approaches is unclear. Based on the Victorian Adolescent Health Cohort Study, we conducted a simulation study to evaluate eight missing data methods in this context: complete-case analysis, extended TMLE incorporating outcome-missingness model, missing covariate missing indicator method, five multiple imputation (MI) approaches using parametric or machine-learning models. Six scenarios were considered, varying in exposure/outcome generation models (presence of confounder-confounder interactions) and missingness mechanisms (whether outcome influenced missingness in other variables and presence of interaction/non-linear terms in missingness models). Complete-case analysis and extended TMLE had small biases when outcome did not influence missingness in other variables. Parametric MI without interactions had large bias when exposure/outcome generation models included interactions. Parametric MI including interactions performed best in bias and variance reduction across all settings, except when missingness models included a non-linear term. When choosing a method to handle missing data in the context of TMLE, researchers must consider the missingness mechanism and, for MI, compatibility with the analysis method. In many settings, a parametric MI approach that incorporates interactions and non-linearities is expected to perform well.

Functional Outcomes After Transanal Total Mesorectal Excision (taTME) for Rectal Cancer: Results from the Phase II North American Multicenter Prospective Observational Trial.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate fecal incontinence and defecatory, urinary, and sexual functional outcomes after taTME. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Proctectomy for rectal cancer may result in alterations in defecatory, urinary, and sexual function that persist beyond 12 months. The recent multicenter Phase II taTME trial demonstrated the safety of taTME in patients with stage I-III tumors. METHODS: Prospectively registered self-reported questionnaires were collected from 100 taTME patients. Fecal continence (FIQL, Wexner), defecatory function (COREFO), urinary function (IPSS), and sexual function (FSFI-female, IIEF-male) were assessed preoperatively (PQ), 3-4 months post-ileostomy closure (FQ1), and 12-18 months post-taTME (FQ2). RESULTS: Among 83 patients who responded at all three time points, FIQL, Wexner, and COREFO significantly worsened post-ileostomy closure. Between FQ1 and FQ2, FIQL lifestyle and coping, Wexner, and COREFO incontinence, social impact, frequency, and need for medication significantly improved, while FIQL depression and embarrassment did not change. IPSS did not change relative to preoperative scores. For females, FSFI declined for desire, orgasm, and satisfaction between PQ and FQ1, and did not improve between FQ1 and FQ2. In males, IIEF declined with no change between FQ1 and FQ2. CONCLUSIONS: Although taTME resulted in initial decline in defecatory function and fecal continence, most functional domains improved by 12 months after ileostomy closure, without returning to preoperative status. Urinary function was preserved while sexual function declined without improvement by 18 months post-taTME. Our results address patient expectations and inform shared decision-making regarding taTME.

Combinatorial treatment rescues tumour-microenvironment-mediated attenuation of MALT1 inhibitors in B-cell lymphomas.

Activated B-cell-like diffuse large B-cell lymphomas (ABC-DLBCLs) are characterized by constitutive activation of nuclear factor κB driven by the B-cell receptor (BCR) and Toll-like receptor (TLR) pathways. However, BCR-pathway-targeted therapies have limited impact on DLBCLs. Here we used >1,100 DLBCL patient samples to determine immune and extracellular matrix cues in the lymphoid tumour microenvironment (Ly-TME) and built representative synthetic-hydrogel-based B-cell-lymphoma organoids accordingly. We demonstrate that Ly-TME cellular and biophysical factors amplify the BCR-MYD88-TLR9 multiprotein supercomplex and induce cooperative signalling pathways in ABC-DLBCL cells, which reduce the efficacy of compounds targeting the BCR pathway members Bruton tyrosine kinase and mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue lymphoma translocation protein 1 (MALT1). Combinatorial inhibition of multiple aberrant signalling pathways induced higher antitumour efficacy in lymphoid organoids and implanted ABC-DLBCL patient tumours in vivo. Our studies define the complex crosstalk between malignant ABC-DLBCL cells and Ly-TME, and provide rational combinatorial therapies that rescue Ly-TME-mediated attenuation of treatment response to MALT1 inhibitors.

Overcoming aggregation with laser heated nanoelectrospray mass spectrometry: thermal stability and pathways for loss of bicarbonate from carbonic anhydrase II.

Variable temperature electrospray mass spectrometry is useful for multiplexed measurements of the thermal stabilities of biomolecules, but the ionization process can be disrupted by aggregation-prone proteins/complexes that have irreversible unfolding transitions. Resistively heating solutions containing a mixture of bovine carbonic anhydrase II (BCAII), a CO2 fixing enzyme involved in many biochemical pathways, and cytochrome c leads to complete loss of carbonic anhydrase signal and a significant reduction in cytochrome c signal above ∼72 °C due to aggregation. In contrast, when the tips of borosilicate glass nanoelectrospray emitters are heated with a laser, complete thermal denaturation curves for both proteins are obtained in <1 minute. The simultaneous measurements of the melting temperature of BCAII and BCAII bound to bicarbonate reveal that the bicarbonate stabilizes the folded form of this protein by ∼6.4 °C. Moreover, the temperature dependences of different bicarbonate loss pathways are obtained. Although protein analytes are directly heated by the laser for only 140 ms, heat conduction further up the emitter leads to a total analyte heating time of ∼41 s. Pulsed laser heating experiments could reduce this time to ∼0.5 s for protein aggregation that occurs on a faster time scale. Laser heating provides a powerful method for studying the detailed mechanisms of cofactor/ligand loss with increasing temperature and promises a new tool for studying the effect of ligands, drugs, growth conditions, buffer additives, or other treatments on the stabilities of aggregation-prone biomolecules.

Electronic Structure and Photophysics of Low Spin d5 Metallocenes.

The electronic structure and photophysics of two low spin metallocenes, decamethylmanganocene (MnCp*2) and decamethylrhenocene (ReCp*2), were investigated to probe their promise as photoredox reagents. Computational studies support the assignment of 2E2 ground state configurations and low energy ligand-to-metal charge transfer transitions for both complexes. Weak emission is observed at room temperature for ReCp*2 with τ = 1.8 ns in pentane, whereas MnCp*2 is not emissive. Calculation of the excited state reduction potentials for both metallocenes reveal their potential potency as excited state reductants (E°'([MnCp*2]+/0*) = -3.38 V and E°'([ReCp*2]+/0*) = -2.61 V vs Fc+/0). Comparatively, both complexes exhibit mild potentials for photo-oxidative processes (E°'([MnCp*2]0*/-) = -0.18 V and E°'([ReCp*2]0*/-) = -0.20 V vs Fc+/0). These results showcase the rich electronic structure of low spin d5 metallocenes and their promise as excited state reductants.

Advancing randomized controlled trial methodologies: The place of innovative trial design in eating disorders research.

Randomized controlled trials can be used to generate evidence on the efficacy and safety of new treatments in eating disorders research. Many of the trials previously conducted in this area have been deemed to be of low quality, in part due to a number of practical constraints. This article provides an overview of established and more innovative clinical trial designs, accompanied by pertinent examples, to highlight how design choices can enhance flexibility and improve efficiency of both resource allocation and participant involvement. Trial designs include individually randomized, cluster randomized, and designs with randomizations at multiple time points and/or addressing several research questions (master protocol studies). Design features include the use of adaptations and considerations for pragmatic or registry-based trials. The appropriate choice of trial design, together with rigorous trial conduct, reporting and analysis, can establish high-quality evidence to advance knowledge in the field. It is anticipated that this article will provide a broad and contemporary introduction to trial designs and will help researchers make informed trial design choices for improved testing of new interventions in eating disorders. PUBLIC SIGNIFICANCE: There is a paucity of high quality randomized controlled trials that have been conducted in eating disorders, highlighting the need to identify where efficiency gains in trial design may be possible to advance the eating disorder research field. We provide an overview of some key trial designs and features which may offer solutions to practical constraints and increase trial efficiency.

Recoverability and estimation of causal effects under typical multivariable missingness mechanisms.

In the context of missing data, the identifiability or "recoverability" of the average causal effect (ACE) depends not only on the usual causal assumptions but also on missingness assumptions that can be depicted by adding variable-specific missingness indicators to causal diagrams, creating missingness directed acyclic graphs (m-DAGs). Previous research described canonical m-DAGs, representing typical multivariable missingness mechanisms in epidemiological studies, and examined mathematically the recoverability of the ACE in each case. However, this work assumed no effect modification and did not investigate methods for estimation across such scenarios. Here, we extend this research by determining the recoverability of the ACE in settings with effect modification and conducting a simulation study to evaluate the performance of widely used missing data methods when estimating the ACE using correctly specified g-computation. Methods assessed were complete case analysis (CCA) and various implementations of multiple imputation (MI) with varying degrees of compatibility with the outcome model used in g-computation. Simulations were based on an example from the Victorian Adolescent Health Cohort Study (VAHCS), where interest was in estimating the ACE of adolescent cannabis use on mental health in young adulthood. We found that the ACE is recoverable when no incomplete variable (exposure, outcome, or confounder) causes its own missingness, and nonrecoverable otherwise, in simplified versions of 10 canonical m-DAGs that excluded unmeasured common causes of missingness indicators. Despite this nonrecoverability, simulations showed that MI approaches that are compatible with the outcome model in g-computation may enable approximately unbiased estimation across all canonical m-DAGs considered, except when the outcome causes its own missingness or causes the missingness of a variable that causes its own missingness. In the latter settings, researchers may need to consider sensitivity analysis methods incorporating external information (e.g., delta-adjustment methods). The VAHCS case study illustrates the practical implications of these findings.

A comparison of strategies for selecting auxiliary variables for multiple imputation.

Multiple imputation (MI) is a popular method for handling missing data. Auxiliary variables can be added to the imputation model(s) to improve MI estimates. However, the choice of which auxiliary variables to include is not always straightforward. Several data-driven auxiliary variable selection strategies have been proposed, but there has been limited evaluation of their performance. Using a simulation study we evaluated the performance of eight auxiliary variable selection strategies: (1, 2) two versions of selection based on correlations in the observed data; (3) selection using hypothesis tests of the "missing completely at random" assumption; (4) replacing auxiliary variables with their principal components; (5, 6) forward and forward stepwise selection; (7) forward selection based on the estimated fraction of missing information; and (8) selection via the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). A complete case analysis and an MI analysis using all auxiliary variables (the "full model") were included for comparison. We also applied all strategies to a motivating case study. The full model outperformed all auxiliary variable selection strategies in the simulation study, with the LASSO strategy the best performing auxiliary variable selection strategy overall. All MI analysis strategies that we were able to apply to the case study led to similar estimates, although computational time was substantially reduced when variable selection was employed. This study provides further support for adopting an inclusive auxiliary variable strategy where possible. Auxiliary variable selection using the LASSO may be a promising alternative when the full model fails or is too burdensome.

Bacterial lipopolysaccharide inhibits colonic carrier-mediated uptake of thiamin pyrophosphate: roles for TLR4 receptor and NF-κB/P38/JNK signaling pathway.

This study investigated the effect of the bacterial endotoxin lipopolysaccharide (LPS) on colonic uptake of thiamin pyrophosphate (TPP), the biologically active form of vitamin B1 that is generated by gut microbiota. We used three complementary models in our study: in vitro (human-derived colonic epithelial NCM460), ex vivo (human differentiated colonoid monolayers), and in vivo (mouse colonic tissue). The results showed that exposure of NCM460 cells to LPS leads to a significant inhibition of carrier-mediated TPP uptake as well as in decreased expression of the colonic TPP transporter (cTPPT) protein, mRNA, and heterologous nuclear RNA (hnRNA) compared with untreated controls. Similarly, exposure of human differentiated colonoid monolayers and mice to LPS caused significant inhibition in colonic carrier-mediated TPP uptake and in cTPPT protein, mRNA, and hnRNA expression. The effect of LPS on colonic TPP uptake and cTTPT expression was also found to be associated with a significant reduction in activity of the SLC44A4 promoter as well as in decreased expression of the nuclear factor Elf-3 (E74-like ETS transcription factor 3), which is needed for promoter activity. Finally, we found that knocking down the Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) and blocking the nuclear factor kappa B (NF-κB), JNK, and p38 signaling pathways with the use of pharmacological inhibitors lead to significant abrogation in the degree of LPS-mediated inhibition in TPP uptake and cTPPT expression. These results demonstrated that exposure of colonic epithelia to LPS inhibits colonic TPP uptake via transcriptional mechanism(s) and that the effect is mediated via TLR4 receptor and NF-κB/p38/JNK signaling pathways.NEW & NOTEWORTHY This study examined the effect of the bacterial lipopolysaccharide (LPS) on the colonic uptake of thiamin pyrophosphate (TPP), the biologically active form of vitamin B1. Three complementary models were used: in vitro (human NCM460 cells), ex vivo (human colonoids), and in vivo (mice). The results showed LPS to significantly suppress TPP uptake and the expression of its transporter, and that these effects are mediated via the membrane TLR4 receptor, and involve the NF-κB/p38/JNK signaling pathways.

Evaluating Antibody Mediated Protection against Alpha, Beta, and Delta SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern in K18-hACE2 Transgenic Mice.

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VoC) are impacting responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we utilized passive immunization using human convalescent plasma (HCP) obtained from a critically ill COVID-19 patient in the early pandemic to study the efficacy of polyclonal antibodies generated to ancestral SARS-CoV-2 against the Alpha, Beta, and Delta VoC in the K18 human angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (hACE2) transgenic mouse model. HCP protected mice from challenge with the original WA-1 SARS-CoV-2 strain; however, only partially protected mice challenged with the Alpha VoC (60% survival) and failed to save Beta challenged mice from succumbing to disease. HCP treatment groups had elevated receptor binding domain (RBD) and nucleocapsid IgG titers in the serum; however, Beta VoC viral RNA burden in the lung and brain was not decreased due to HCP treatment. While mice could be protected from WA-1 or Alpha challenge with a single dose of HCP, six doses of HCP could not decrease mortality of Delta challenged mice. Overall, these data demonstrate that VoC have enhanced immune evasion and this work underscores the need for in vivo models to evaluate future emerging strains. IMPORTANCE Emerging SARS-CoV-2 VoC are posing new problems regarding vaccine and monoclonal antibody efficacy. To better understand immune evasion tactics of the VoC, we utilized passive immunization to study the effect of early-pandemic SARS-CoV-2 HCP against, Alpha, Beta, and Delta VoC. We observed that HCP from a human infected with the original SARS-CoV-2 was unable to control lethality of Alpha, Beta, or Delta VoC in the K18-hACE2 transgenic mouse model of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our findings demonstrate that passive immunization can be used as a model to evaluate immune evasion of emerging VoC strains.

The peptidoglycan-associated protein NapA plays an important role in the envelope integrity and in the pathogenesis of the lyme disease spirochete.

The bacterial pathogen responsible for causing Lyme disease, Borrelia burgdorferi, is an atypical Gram-negative spirochete that is transmitted to humans via the bite of an infected Ixodes tick. In diderms, peptidoglycan (PG) is sandwiched between the inner and outer membrane of the cell envelope. In many other Gram-negative bacteria, PG is bound by protein(s), which provide both structural integrity and continuity between envelope layers. Here, we present evidence of a peptidoglycan-associated protein (PAP) in B. burgdorferi. Using an unbiased proteomics approach, we identified Neutrophil Attracting Protein A (NapA) as a PAP. Interestingly, NapA is a Dps homologue, which typically functions to bind and protect cellular DNA from damage during times of stress. While B. burgdorferi NapA is known to be involved in the oxidative stress response, it lacks the critical residues necessary for DNA binding. Biochemical and cellular studies demonstrate that NapA is localized to the B. burgdorferi periplasm and is indeed a PAP. Cryo-electron microscopy indicates that mutant bacteria, unable to produce NapA, have structural abnormalities. Defects in cell-wall integrity impact growth rate and cause the napA mutant to be more susceptible to osmotic and PG-specific stresses. NapA-linked PG is secreted in outer membrane vesicles and augments IL-17 production, relative to PG alone. Using microfluidics, we demonstrate that NapA acts as a molecular beacon-exacerbating the pathogenic properties of B. burgdorferi PG. These studies further our understanding of the B. burgdorferi cell envelope, provide critical information that underlies its pathogenesis, and highlight how a highly conserved bacterial protein can evolve mechanistically, while maintaining biological function.

Mental health in young adults born extremely preterm or extremely low birthweight with contemporary neonatal intensive care.

BACKGROUND: For infants born in the contemporary era of neonatal care, little is known about adult mental health outcomes of extremely preterm birth (EP; <28 weeks' gestation) or extremely low birthweight (ELBW; <1000 g). This study aimed to compare attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), anxiety, mood, and substance use disorder prevalence in young adults born EP/ELBW and normal birthweight (NBW; >2499 g) controls, and to compare change in prevalence of mental health symptoms and disorders from 18 to 25 years. METHODS: Participants were a prospective geographical cohort of 297 consecutive survivors born EP/ELBW during 1991-1992 and 260 NBW controls. At age 25 years, 174 EP/ELBW and 139 NBW participants completed the Adult ADHD Rating Scale, Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Disorders, Beck Anxiety Inventory, and Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale-Revised. Data from follow-up at 18 years were also utilized. Multiple imputation was used to account for attrition. RESULTS: Mental health outcomes at 25 years were similar between groups: prevalence rates were ADHD 7% v. 5%; anxiety 32% v. 27%; mood 38% v. 35%; substance use 12% v. 14% in the EP/ELBW and NBW groups, respectively. In both groups, ADHD declined between 18 and 25 years [odds ratio (OR) per year = 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.79-0.95], and generalized anxiety disorder and major depressive episode became more common (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.10-1.35 per year; OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.10-1.30 respectively). CONCLUSIONS: This contemporary EP/ELBW cohort has comparable young adult mental health outcomes to controls, and similar patterns of change in mental health from late adolescence.

Umbilical Cord Blood Cell Clearance Post-Infusion in Immune-Competent Children with Cerebral Palsy.

Umbilical cord blood cells have therapeutic potential for neurological disorders, through a paracrine mechanism of action. A greater understanding of the safety and immunological effects of allogeneic donor cord blood cells in the context of a healthy recipient immune system, such as in cerebral palsy, is needed. This study aimed to determine how quickly donor cord blood cells were cleared from the circulation in children with cerebral palsy who received a single intravenous infusion of 12/12 human leucocyte antigen (HLA)-matched sibling cord blood cells. Twelve participants with cerebral palsy aged 2-12 years received cord blood cell infusions as part of a phase I trial of umbilical blood infusion for cerebral palsy. Digital droplet PCR analysis of DNA copy number variants specific to donor and recipient was used to assess donor DNA clearance at five timepoints post-infusion, a surrogate measure of cell clearance. Donor cells were cleared by 3 months post-infusion in 11/12 participants. When detected, donor DNA was at a fraction of 0.01-0.31% of total DNA with no signs of graft-versus-host disease in any participant. The donor DNA clearance times provided by this study have important implications for understanding the safety of allogeneic cord blood cell infusion for cerebral palsy and translational tissue engineering or regenerative medicine research in other disorders.

TreEAT trial: Protocol for a randomized controlled trial investigating the efficacy and safety of early introduction of tree nuts for the prevention of tree nut allergy in infants with peanut allergy.

INTRODUCTION: Children with peanut allergy are at increased risk of developing tree nut allergies, which can be severe and for most lifelong. Introduction of peanut in the first year of life can reduce the risk of peanut allergy; however, prevention strategies for tree nut allergies have not been established. We aimed to test the efficacy and safety of a novel strategy, a supervised multi-nut oral food challenge (OFC) compared with standard care for tree nut allergy prevention in infants at high risk of developing tree nut allergy, TreEAT. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: TreEAT is a 2-armed, open-label, randomized, controlled trial (RCT). Infants (n = 212) aged 4-11 months with peanut allergy will be randomized 1:1 at peanut allergy diagnosis to either a hospital-based multi-tree nut (almond, cashew, hazelnut, and walnut) OFC using multi-nut butter or standard care (home introduction of individual tree nuts). All infants will be assessed at age 18 months, with questionnaires and SPT to peanut and tree nuts. Peanut and tree nut OFCs will be performed as required to determine the allergy status for each nut. The primary outcome is tree nut allergy at age 18 months. Secondary outcomes include peanut allergy resolution, proportion, and severity of adverse events related to tree nut ingestion, number and frequency of tree nuts ingested, quality of life and parental anxiety, and allergy-related healthcare visits from randomization to 18 months of age. Analyses will be performed on an intention-to-treat basis. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: TreEAT was approved by the Royal Children's Hospital Human Research Ethics Committee (#70489). Outcomes will be presented at scientific conferences and disseminated through publication. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT04801823.

Handling misclassified stratification variables in the analysis of randomised trials with continuous outcomes.

Many trials use stratified randomisation, where participants are randomised within strata defined by one or more baseline covariates. While it is important to adjust for stratification variables in the analysis, the appropriate method of adjustment is unclear when stratification variables are affected by misclassification and hence some participants are randomised in the incorrect stratum. We conducted a simulation study to compare methods of adjusting for stratification variables affected by misclassification in the analysis of continuous outcomes when all or only some stratification errors are discovered, and when the treatment effect or treatment-by-covariate interaction effect is of interest. The data were analysed using linear regression with no adjustment, adjustment for the strata used to perform the randomisation (randomisation strata), adjustment for the strata if all errors are corrected (true strata), and adjustment for the strata after some errors are discovered and corrected (updated strata). The unadjusted model performed poorly in all settings. Adjusting for the true strata was optimal, while the relative performance of adjusting for the randomisation strata or the updated strata varied depending on the setting. As the true strata are unlikely to be known with certainty in practice, we recommend using the updated strata for adjustment and performing subgroup analyses, provided the discovery of errors is unlikely to depend on treatment group, as expected in blinded trials. Greater transparency is needed in the reporting of stratification errors and how they were addressed in the analysis.

On the use of multiple imputation to address data missing by design as well as unintended missing data in case-cohort studies with a binary endpoint.

BACKGROUND: Case-cohort studies are conducted within cohort studies, with the defining feature that collection of exposure data is limited to a subset of the cohort, leading to a large proportion of missing data by design. Standard analysis uses inverse probability weighting (IPW) to address this intended missing data, but little research has been conducted into how best to perform analysis when there is also unintended missingness. Multiple imputation (MI) has become a default standard for handling unintended missingness and is typically used in combination with IPW to handle the intended missingness due to the case-control sampling. Alternatively, MI could be used to handle both the intended and unintended missingness. While the performance of an MI-only approach has been investigated in the context of a case-cohort study with a time-to-event outcome, it is unclear how this approach performs with a binary outcome. METHODS: We conducted a simulation study to assess and compare the performance of approaches using only MI, only IPW, and a combination of MI and IPW, for handling intended and unintended missingness in the case-cohort setting. We also applied the approaches to a case study. RESULTS: Our results show that the combined approach is approximately unbiased for estimation of the exposure effect when the sample size is large, and was the least biased with small sample sizes, while MI-only and IPW-only exhibited larger biases in both sample size settings. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that a combined MI/IPW approach should be preferred to handle intended and unintended missing data in case-cohort studies with binary outcomes.

Should multiple imputation be stratified by exposure group when estimating causal effects via outcome regression in observational studies?

BACKGROUND: Despite recent advances in causal inference methods, outcome regression remains the most widely used approach for estimating causal effects in epidemiological studies with a single-point exposure and outcome. Missing data are common in these studies, and complete-case analysis (CCA) and multiple imputation (MI) are two frequently used methods for handling them. In randomised controlled trials (RCTs), it has been shown that MI should be conducted separately by treatment group. In observational studies, causal inference is now understood as the task of emulating an RCT, which raises the question of whether MI should be conducted by exposure group in such studies. METHODS: We addressed this question by evaluating the performance of seven methods for handling missing data when estimating causal effects with outcome regression. We conducted an extensive simulation study based on an illustrative case study from the Victorian Adolescent Health Cohort Study, assessing a range of scenarios, including seven outcome generation models with exposure-confounder interactions of differing strength. RESULTS: The simulation results showed that MI by exposure group led to the least bias when the size of the smallest exposure group was relatively large, followed by MI approaches that included the exposure-confounder interactions. CONCLUSIONS: The findings from our simulation study, which was designed based on a real case study, suggest that current practice for the conduct of MI in causal inference may need to shift to stratifying by exposure group where feasible, or otherwise including exposure-confounder interactions in the imputation model.

Weight loss post-allogeneic stem cell transplant is associated with increased transplant-related mortality.

PURPOSE: Allogeneic stem cell transplant (allo-HSCT) patients are at risk of malnutrition and weight loss from impaired oral intake resulting from gastrointestinal toxicities, dysgeusia, and psychological effects. METHODS: A retrospective review of 264 adult patients transplanted at Princess Margaret Cancer Centre who achieved relapse-free survival up to 3 months after allo-HSCT was performed. RESULTS: Overall incidence of patients who experienced WL (WL) ≥ 10% from HSCT to 3-month post-transplant was 45.9% and from HSCT to 6 months was 56.6%. Patients with ≥ 10% WL from allo-HSCT at 3 months and 6 months had similar 2-year overall survival (OS) compared to those with < 10% WL, 55.7% vs 62.8% (HR = 1.38, p = 0.11) and 71.1% vs 77.2% (HR = 1.37, p = 0.27), respectively. Patients with ≥ 10% WL 3 and 6 months from allo-HSCT also had similar 2-year relapse-free survival (RFS) compared to those with < 10% WL, 48.1% vs 55.8% (HR = 1.26, p = 0.22), and 62.7% vs 69.8% (HR = 1.29, p = 0.31), respectively. The 2-year transplant-related mortality (TRM) was higher for those with ≥ 10% WL from allo-HSCT to 3 months, 35.4% vs 16.9% (HR = 2.39, p = 0.0007) and 6 months, 22% vs 8% (HR = 3.1, p = 0.0034). Although statistical significance was not observed for OS or RFS, patients who experienced ≥ 10% WL 3- and 6-months post allo-HSCT experienced higher 2-year TRM. These results highlight the importance of early intervention and close monitoring of weight post allo-HSCT. CONCLUSION: Approaches to WL post allo-HSCT should be multifaceted and include members of the interdisciplinary team in order to decrease TRM.