Use of 2-Stage Modeling to Identify How Colorectal Cancer Risk Changes With Period and Cohort.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence rates have decreased among adults aged 50 years or older while increasing in adults under age 50 years. Understanding these trends is challenging because of the multiple related time scales of age, diagnosis period, and birth cohort. We analyzed incidence rates of rectal, distal colon, and proximal colon cancer for individuals aged 20 years or more from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program for diagnosis years 1978-2017. We used a 2-stage generalized linear model to determine age, period, and cohort effects for CRC incidence. We first estimated birth cohort effects among people under age 45 years. We used these results to specify prior distributions for cohort effects in a Bayesian model to estimate period effects among people aged 45 years or more. There was no evidence of period effects for people under age 45 years. Risks of rectal and distal colon cancer increased for later birth cohorts. Compared with the 1943-1952 birth cohort, the 1983-1992 birth cohort had 2.2 times the risk of rectal cancer, 1.9 times the risk of distal colon cancer, and 1.3 times the risk of proximal colon cancer. For people aged ≥45 years, period effects showed declines in CRC risk that were attributable to screening.

Prevalence and correlates of internalized stigma among adults with HIV and major depressive disorder in rural Malawi.

Internalized stigma is common among individuals with sexually transmitted infections such as HIV and among those with mental health conditions such as major depressive disorder (MDD). As part of a cluster randomized trial, we investigated the prevalence and correlates of internalized stigma among adults living with comorbid HIV and MDD in rural Malawi (n = 339). We found heightened stigma toward HIV and mental illness among those in the cohort: more than half of respondents (54%) endorsed negative perceptions associated with each health condition. Internalized HIV-related stigma was higher among those with no education (p = 0.04), younger adults (p = 0.03), and those with less social support (p = 0.001). Mental illness-related stigma was elevated among those with no source of income (p = 0.001), and it was also strongly associated with HIV-related stigma (p < 0.001). Our findings highlight potential avenues for reducing internalized stigma associated with high-prevalence health conditions in Malawi.Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT04777006.

Changes in In-Person, Audio-Only, and Video Visits in California's Federally Qualified Health Centers, 2019-2022.

This study assesses telehealth visit trends among California federally qualified health centers from 2019 to 2022.

Syndromic Surveillance 2.0: Emerging Global Surveillance Strategies for Infectious Disease Epidemics.

The U.S. Army has a long history of preventing, detecting, and treating infectious diseases. Like other organizations and agencies involved in public health, the Army is increasingly interested in syndromic surveillance strategies-those designed to identify outbreaks before clinical data are available. Researchers use various methods to identify surveillance strategies across the globe, investigate these strategies' benefits and limitations, and recommend actions to aid the Army in their efforts to detect emerging epidemics and pandemics.

Intimate Partner Violence and HIV Prevention Among Sexual Minority Men: Protocol for a Prospective Mixed Methods Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Sexual minority men experience intimate partner violence (IPV) at rates similar to those reported by heterosexual women in the United States. Previous studies linked both IPV victimization and perpetration to HIV risk and seroconversion; however, less is known about the impact of IPV on HIV testing, sexually transmitted infection (STI) testing, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) uptake, and the persistence of PrEP use among sexual minority men experiencing IPV. Although prior work suggests that IPV may influence HIV prevention behavior, experiences of IPV are so highly varied among sexual minority men (eg, forms, frequency, and severity; steady vs casual partnerships; perpetration vs receipt; and sexual vs physical vs psychological violence) that additional research is needed to better understand the impact that IPV has on HIV risk and protective behaviors to develop more effective interventions for sexual minority men. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to contribute to our understanding of the antecedents of IPV and the direct and indirect pathways between perpetration and receipt of IPV and HIV or STI risk behavior, STIs, and use of PrEP among sexual minority men experiencing IPV. METHODS: This mixed methods study has 2 phases: phase 1 involved formative qualitative interviews with 23 sexual minority men experiencing IPV and 10 key stakeholders or providers of services to sexual minority men experiencing IPV to inform the content of a subsequent web-based cohort study, and phase 2 involves the recruitment of a web-based cohort study of 500 currently partnered HIV-negative sexual minority men who reside in Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-identified Ending the HIV Epidemic priority jurisdictions across the United States. Participants will be followed for 24 months. They will be assessed through a full survey and asked to self-collect and return biospecimen kits assessing HIV, STIs, and PrEP use at 0, 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. They will also be asked to complete abbreviated surveys to assess for self-reported changes in key study variables at 3, 9, 15, and 21 months. RESULTS: Phase 1 was launched in May 2021, and the phase 1 qualitative interviews began in December 2021 and were concluded in March 2022 after a diversity of experiences and perceptions were gathered and no new ideas emerged in the interviews. Rapid analysis of the qualitative interviews took place between March 2022 and June 2022. Phase 2 recruitment of the full cohort began in August 2022 and is planned to continue through February 2024. CONCLUSIONS: This mixed methods study will contribute valuable insights into the association that IPV has with HIV risk and protective behaviors among sexual minority men. The findings from this study will be used to inform the development or adaptation of HIV and IPV prevention interventions for sexual minority men experiencing IPV. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/41453.

Real-time predictions of the 2018-2019 Ebola virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo using Hawkes point process models.

As of June 16, 2019, an Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak has led to 2136 reported cases in the northeastern region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). As this outbreak continues to threaten the lives and livelihoods of people already suffering from civil strife and armed conflict, relatively simple mathematical models and their short-term predictions have the potential to inform Ebola response efforts in real time. We applied recently developed non-parametrically estimated Hawkes point processes to model the expected cumulative case count using daily case counts from May 3, 2018, to June 16, 2019, initially reported by the Ministry of Health of DRC and later confirmed in World Health Organization situation reports. We generated probabilistic estimates of the ongoing EVD outbreak in DRC extending both before and after June 16, 2019, and evaluated their accuracy by comparing forecasted vs. actual outbreak sizes, out-of-sample log-likelihood scores and the error per day in the median forecast. The median estimated outbreak sizes for the prospective thee-, six-, and nine-week projections made using data up to June 16, 2019, were, respectively, 2317 (95% PI: 2222, 2464); 2440 (95% PI: 2250, 2790); and 2544 (95% PI: 2273, 3205). The nine-week projection experienced some degradation with a daily error in the median forecast of 6.73 cases, while the six- and three-week projections were more reliable, with corresponding errors of 4.96 and 4.85 cases per day, respectively. Our findings suggest the Hawkes point process may serve as an easily-applied statistical model to predict EVD outbreak trajectories in near real-time to better inform decision-making and resource allocation during Ebola response efforts.