Pangenome-spanning epistasis and coselection analysis via de Bruijn graphs.

Studies of bacterial adaptation and evolution are hampered by the difficulty of measuring traits such as virulence, drug resistance, and transmissibility in large populations. In contrast, it is now feasible to obtain high-quality complete assemblies of many bacterial genomes thanks to scalable high-accuracy long-read sequencing technologies. To exploit this opportunity, we introduce a phenotype- and alignment-free method for discovering coselected and epistatically interacting genomic variation from genome assemblies covering both core and accessory parts of genomes. Our approach uses a compact colored de Bruijn graph to approximate the intragenome distances between pairs of loci for a collection of bacterial genomes to account for the impacts of linkage disequilibrium (LD). We demonstrate the versatility of our approach to efficiently identify associations between loci linked with drug resistance and adaptation to the hospital niche in the major human bacterial pathogens Streptococcus pneumoniae and Enterococcus faecalis.

Recent approaches in computational modelling for controlling pathogen threats.

In this review, we assess the status of computational modelling of pathogens. We focus on three disparate but interlinked research areas that produce models with very different spatial and temporal scope. First, we examine antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Many mechanisms of AMR are not well understood. As a result, it is hard to measure the current incidence of AMR, predict the future incidence, and design strategies to preserve existing antibiotic effectiveness. Next, we look at how to choose the finite number of bacterial strains that can be included in a vaccine. To do this, we need to understand what happens to vaccine and non-vaccine strains after vaccination programmes. Finally, we look at within-host modelling of antibody dynamics. The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic produced huge amounts of antibody data, prompting improvements in this area of modelling. We finish by discussing the challenges that persist in understanding these complex biological systems.

Optimising machine learning prediction of minimum inhibitory concentrations in Klebsiella pneumoniae.

Minimum Inhibitory Concentrations (MICs) are the gold standard for quantitatively measuring antibiotic resistance. However, lab-based MIC determination can be time-consuming and suffers from low reproducibility, and interpretation as sensitive or resistant relies on guidelines which change over time. Genome sequencing and machine learning promise to allow in silico MIC prediction as an alternative approach which overcomes some of these difficulties, albeit the interpretation of MIC is still needed. Nevertheless, precisely how we should handle MIC data when dealing with predictive models remains unclear, since they are measured semi-quantitatively, with varying resolution, and are typically also left- and right-censored within varying ranges. We therefore investigated genome-based prediction of MICs in the pathogen Klebsiella pneumoniae using 4367 genomes with both simulated semi-quantitative traits and real MICs. As we were focused on clinical interpretation, we used interpretable rather than black-box machine learning models, namely, Elastic Net, Random Forests, and linear mixed models. Simulated traits were generated accounting for oligogenic, polygenic, and homoplastic genetic effects with different levels of heritability. Then we assessed how model prediction accuracy was affected when MICs were framed as regression and classification. Our results showed that treating the MICs differently depending on the number of concentration levels of antibiotic available was the most promising learning strategy. Specifically, to optimise both prediction accuracy and inference of the correct causal variants, we recommend considering the MICs as continuous and framing the learning problem as a regression when the number of observed antibiotic concentration levels is large, whereas with a smaller number of concentration levels they should be treated as a categorical variable and the learning problem should be framed as a classification. Our findings also underline how predictive models can be improved when prior biological knowledge is taken into account, due to the varying genetic architecture of each antibiotic resistance trait. Finally, we emphasise that incrementing the population database is pivotal for the future clinical implementation of these models to support routine machine-learning based diagnostics.

Inter-species gene flow drives ongoing evolution of Streptococcus pyogenes and Streptococcus dysgalactiae subsp. equisimilis.

Streptococcus dysgalactiae subsp. equisimilis (SDSE) is an emerging cause of human infection with invasive disease incidence and clinical manifestations comparable to the closely related species, Streptococcus pyogenes. Through systematic genomic analyses of 501 disseminated SDSE strains, we demonstrate extensive overlap between the genomes of SDSE and S. pyogenes. More than 75% of core genes are shared between the two species with one third demonstrating evidence of cross-species recombination. Twenty-five percent of mobile genetic element (MGE) clusters and 16 of 55 SDSE MGE insertion regions were shared across species. Assessing potential cross-protection from leading S. pyogenes vaccine candidates on SDSE, 12/34 preclinical vaccine antigen genes were shown to be present in >99% of isolates of both species. Relevant to possible vaccine evasion, six vaccine candidate genes demonstrated evidence of inter-species recombination. These findings demonstrate previously unappreciated levels of genomic overlap between these closely related pathogens with implications for streptococcal pathobiology, disease surveillance and prevention.