A Two-Stage Approach for Bayesian Joint Models of Longitudinal and Survival Data: Correcting Bias with Informative Prior.

Joint models of longitudinal and survival outcomes have gained much popularity in recent years, both in applications and in methodological development. This type of modelling is usually characterised by two submodels, one longitudinal (e.g., mixed-effects model) and one survival (e.g., Cox model), which are connected by some common term. Naturally, sharing information makes the inferential process highly time-consuming. In particular, the Bayesian framework requires even more time for Markov chains to reach stationarity. Hence, in order to reduce the modelling complexity while maintaining the accuracy of the estimates, we propose a two-stage strategy that first fits the longitudinal submodel and then plug the shared information into the survival submodel. Unlike a standard two-stage approach, we apply a correction by incorporating an individual and multiplicative fixed-effect with informative prior into the survival submodel. Based on simulation studies and sensitivity analyses, we empirically compare our proposal with joint specification and standard two-stage approaches. The results show that our methodology is very promising, since it reduces the estimation bias compared to the other two-stage method and requires less processing time than the joint specification approach.

New insights from GWAS on BMI-related growth traits in a longitudinal cohort of admixed children with Native American and European ancestry.

Body-mass index (BMI) is a hallmark of adiposity. In contrast with adulthood, the genetic architecture of BMI during childhood is poorly understood. The few genome-wide association studies (GWAS) on children have been performed almost exclusively in Europeans and at single ages. We performed cross-sectional and longitudinal GWAS for BMI-related traits on 904 admixed children with mostly Mapuche Native American and European ancestries. We found regulatory variants of the immune gene HLA-DQB3 strongly associated with BMI at 1.5 - 2.5 years old. A variant in the sex-determining gene DMRT1 was associated with the age at adiposity rebound (Age-AR) in girls (P = 9.8 × 10 - 9 ). BMI was significantly higher in Mapuche than in Europeans between 5.5 and 16.5 years old. Finally, Age-AR was significantly lower (P = 0.004 ) by 1.94 years and BMI at AR was significantly higher (P = 0.04 ) by 1.2 kg/ m 2 , in Mapuche children compared with Europeans.