Decadal trends in the ocean carbon sink.

Measurements show large decadal variability in the rate of [Formula: see text] accumulation in the atmosphere that is not driven by [Formula: see text] emissions. The decade of the 1990s experienced enhanced carbon accumulation in the atmosphere relative to emissions, while in the 2000s, the atmospheric growth rate slowed, even though emissions grew rapidly. These variations are driven by natural sources and sinks of [Formula: see text] due to the ocean and the terrestrial biosphere. In this study, we compare three independent methods for estimating oceanic [Formula: see text] uptake and find that the ocean carbon sink could be responsible for up to 40% of the observed decadal variability in atmospheric [Formula: see text] accumulation. Data-based estimates of the ocean carbon sink from [Formula: see text] mapping methods and decadal ocean inverse models generally agree on the magnitude and sign of decadal variability in the ocean [Formula: see text] sink at both global and regional scales. Simulations with ocean biogeochemical models confirm that climate variability drove the observed decadal trends in ocean [Formula: see text] uptake, but also demonstrate that the sensitivity of ocean [Formula: see text] uptake to climate variability may be too weak in models. Furthermore, all estimates point toward coherent decadal variability in the oceanic and terrestrial [Formula: see text] sinks, and this variability is not well-matched by current global vegetation models. Reconciling these differences will help to constrain the sensitivity of oceanic and terrestrial [Formula: see text] uptake to climate variability and lead to improved climate projections and decadal climate predictions.

Atlantic hurricane surge response to geoengineering.

Devastating floods due to Atlantic hurricanes are relatively rare events. However, the frequency of the most intense storms is likely to increase with rises in sea surface temperatures. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection cools the tropics relative to the polar regions, including the hurricane Main Development Region in the Atlantic, suggesting that geoengineering may mitigate hurricanes. We examine this hypothesis using eight earth system model simulations of climate under the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G3 and G4 schemes that use stratospheric aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. Global mean temperature increases are greatly ameliorated by geoengineering, and tropical temperature increases are at most half of those temperature increases in the RCP4.5. However, sulfate injection would have to double (to nearly 10 teragrams of SO2 per year) between 2020 and 2070 to balance the RCP4.5, approximately the equivalent of a 1991 Pinatubo eruption every 2 y, with consequent implications for stratospheric ozone. We project changes in storm frequencies using a temperature-dependent generalized extreme value statistical model calibrated by historical storm surges and observed temperatures since 1923. The number of storm surge events as big as the one caused by the 2005 Katrina hurricane are reduced by about 50% compared with no geoengineering, but this reduction is only marginally statistically significant. Nevertheless, when sea level rise differences in 2070 between the RCP4.5 and geoengineering are factored into coastal flood risk, we find that expected flood levels are reduced by about 40 cm for 5-y events and about halved for 50-y surges.

Promoting a culture change in junior and youth sport in New Zealand.

This paper provides insight into the evolution of a project designed to address longstanding adult attitudes and behavioural issues in junior and youth sport in New Zealand. The project was funded by Sport New Zealand (Sport NZ) and implemented by Aktive, a charitable trust that works with national and regional partners to fund and deliver community sport in Auckland. Aktive collaborated with a team of junior and youth sport researchers, adopting a pragmatic, mixed methods design-based research (DBR) approach to co-design an educational delivery framework aimed at influencing attitudes and assumptions underpinning coaches, parents, and community sport leaders' behaviours. Transformative learning principles informed the delivery framework with the project reaching 4,222 participants. Research evaluations included multiple case studies, surveys, semi-structured interviews, and focus groups, which confirmed awareness of problematic beliefs. The programme expanded to Regional Sport Organisations (RSOs) and National Sport Organisations (NSOs) culminating in a nationwide rollout. The study highlights the effectiveness of theoretically informed adult behaviour change programmes in junior and youth sport, the benefits of programmes being underpinned by a rigorous pedagogical approach, and the benefits of sport organisations and researchers collaborating to design and deliver sustainable change initiatives that address belief systems underpinning current issues.

The Effects of Carbon Dioxide Removal on the Carbon Cycle.

Increasing atmospheric CO2 is having detrimental effects on the Earth system. Societies have recognized that anthropogenic CO2 release must be rapidly reduced to avoid potentially catastrophic impacts. Achieving this via emissions reductions alone will be very difficult. Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) has been suggested to complement and compensate for insufficient emissions reductions, through increasing natural carbon sinks, engineering new carbon sinks, or combining natural uptake with engineered storage. Here, we review the carbon cycle responses to different CDR approaches and highlight the often-overlooked interaction and feedbacks between carbon reservoirs that ultimately determines CDR efficacy. We also identify future research that will be needed if CDR is to play a role in climate change mitigation, these include coordinated studies to better understand (i) the underlying mechanisms of each method, (ii) how they could be explicitly simulated, (iii) how reversible changes in the climate and carbon cycle are, and (iv) how to evaluate and monitor CDR.

The exposure of the Great Barrier Reef to ocean acidification.

The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is founded on reef-building corals. Corals build their exoskeleton with aragonite, but ocean acidification is lowering the aragonite saturation state of seawater (Ωa). The downscaling of ocean acidification projections from global to GBR scales requires the set of regional drivers controlling Ωa to be resolved. Here we use a regional coupled circulation-biogeochemical model and observations to estimate the Ωa experienced by the 3,581 reefs of the GBR, and to apportion the contributions of the hydrological cycle, regional hydrodynamics and metabolism on Ωa variability. We find more detail, and a greater range (1.43), than previously compiled coarse maps of Ωa of the region (0.4), or in observations (1.0). Most of the variability in Ωa is due to processes upstream of the reef in question. As a result, future decline in Ωa is likely to be steeper on the GBR than currently projected by the IPCC assessment report.