Tobacco control within and beyond WHO MPOWER: outcomes from Taiwan SimSmoke.

INTRODUCTION: Adult smoking prevalence in Taiwan rapidly declined from 26.5% in 2005 to 20.0% in 2015. Nevertheless, future projections on smoking-attributable deaths and current per capita consumption do not paint an equally bright picture. METHODS: We used SimSmoke, a tobacco control simulation model to assess the impact of tax increases and other policies by predicting past and projecting over future decades smoking rates and smoking-attributable mortality. RESULTS: The model accurately depicts the decline in smoking prevalence observed in Taiwan from 2000 to 2015. Nonetheless, under the 'status quo' scenario, smoking-attributable mortality is projected to continue growing, peaking at 26 602 annual deaths in 2039 and cumulative deaths >1 million by 2044. By comparing projections with current policies with a counterfactual scenario based on the 2000 policy levels, SimSmoke estimates that tobacco control in Taiwan has been able to reduce smoking prevalence by 30% in 2015 with 450 000 fewer smoking-attributable deaths by 2060. Modified scenarios show that doubling the retail price of cigarettes and fully implementing the remaining MPOWER measures would avert approximately 45 000 lives by 2040 and 130 000 by 2060. CONCLUSIONS: Tobacco will be a leading cause of death in Taiwan for the coming decades, showing yet again the long-term consequences of smoking on public health. The MPOWER package, even if adopted at the highest level with a large tax increase, is unlikely to reduce smoking prevalence to the endgame goal of 5% in the next five decades.

The effect of the market opening on trends in smoking rates in Taiwan.

OBJECTIVES: To examine smoking rates before and after the opening of the market to foreign imports. METHODS: Consumer surveys of Monopoly Bureau, National Health Interview Survey and official tobacco consumption, production and import data were used to calculate smoking rates, cigarette consumption, and the market share of imports. Age-adjusted smoking rates were used to compare trends before and after the market opening. RESULTS: The market share of the imports reached half in 2001 from 2% before opening. Compared to projected rates, smoking rates in 2001 for all and younger males, and all and younger females were increased by 12, 6, 202, and 249%, respectively, over and above the projected trends. The ratio of smoking rates between younger and older adults became larger, from 0.62 to 0.74 in males and from 0.32 to 0.98 in females. Per capita consumption increased after the market opening, particularly when large increases in smuggled cigarettes were considered. CONCLUSIONS: The finding that the market opening triggered an increase in smoking rates is contrary to the assertion by U.S. cigarette producers that importation would only make smokers switch brands. Younger adults and females were more affected, reflecting their higher sensitivity to the appeal from foreign cigarettes. Because of the marketing strategy of imports, more young people smoked, at an earlier age. Experience from Taiwan revealed that after the initial increase in smoking rates, the opening had galvanized the anti-smoking sentiments, legitimized and strengthened tobacco control policies and tempered the severity of the adverse impact.