Seattle proportional risk model in GISSI-HF: Estimated benefit of ICD in patients with EF less than 50.

BACKGROUND: The Seattle Proportional Risk Model (SPRM) estimates the proportion of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in heart failure (HF) patients, identifying those most likely to benefit from implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy (those with ≥50% estimated proportion of SCD). The GISSI-HF trial tested fish oil and rosuvastatin in HF patients. We used the SPRM to evaluate its accuracy in this cohort in predicting potential ICD benefit in patients with EF ≤50% and an SPRM-predicted proportion of SCD either ≥50% or <50%. METHODS: The SPRM was estimated in patients with EF ≤50% and in a logistic regression model comparing SCD with non-SCD. RESULTS: We evaluated 6,750 patients with EF ≤50%. There were 1,892 all-cause deaths, including 610 SCDs. Fifty percent of EF ≤35% patients and 43% with EF 36% to 50% had an SPRM of ≥50%. The SPRM (OR: 1.92, P < 0.0001) accurately predicted the risk of SCD vs non-SCD with an estimated proportion of SCD of 44% vs the observed proportion of 41% at 1 year. By traditional criteria for ICD implantation (EF ≤35%, NYHA class II or III), 64.5% of GISSI-HF patients would be eligible, with an estimated ICD benefit of 0.81. By SPRM >50%, 47.8% may be eligible, including 30.2% with EF >35%. GISSI-HF participants with EF ≤35% with SPRM ≥50% had an estimated ICD HR of 0.64, comparable to patients with EF 36% to 50% with SPRM ≥50% (HR: 0.65). CONCLUSIONS: The SPRM discriminated SCD vs non-SCD in GISSI-HF, both in patients with EF ≤35% and with EF 36% to 50%. The comparable estimated ICD benefit in patients with EF ≤35% and EF 36% to 50% supports the use of a proportional risk model for shared decision making with patients being considered for primary prevention ICD therapy.

Sudden Cardiac Death in Heart Failure: A 20-Year Perspective From a Mediterranean Cohort.

BACKGROUND: The prediction of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in heart failure (HF) remains an unmet need. The aim of our study was to assess the prevalence of SCD over 20 years in outpatients with HF managed in a Mediterranean multidisciplinary HF Clinic, and to compare the proportion of SCD (SCD/all-cause death) to the expected proportional occurrence based on the validated Seattle Proportional Risk Model (SPRM) score. METHODS AND RESULTS: This prospective observational registry study included 2772 outpatients with HF admitted between August 2001 and May 2021. Patients were included when the cause of death was known and SPRM score was available. Over the 20-year study period, 1351 patients (48.7%) died during a median follow-up period of 3.8 years (interquartile range 1.6-7.6). Among these patients, the proportion of SCD out of the total of deaths was 13.6%, whereas the predicted by SPRM was 39.6%. This lower proportion of SCD was observed independently of left ventricular ejection fraction, ischemic etiology, and the presence of an implantable cardiac defibrillator. CONCLUSIONS: In a Mediterranean cohort of outpatients with HF, the proportion of SCD was lower than expected based on the SPRM score. Future studies should investigate to what extend epidemiological and guideline-directed medical therapy patterns influence SCD.

Perioperative management of acetabular and pelvic fractures: evidence-based recommendations.

PURPOSE: The American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons does not currently provide clinical practice guidelines for management of PAF. Accordingly, this article aims to review and consolidate the relevant historical and recent literature in important topics pertaining to perioperative management of PAF. METHODS: A thorough literature review using PubMed, Cochrane and Embase databases was performed to assess preoperative, intraoperative and postoperative management of PAF fracture. Topics reviewed included: time from injury to definitive fixation, the role of inferior vena cava filters (IVCF), tranexamic acid (TXA) use, intraopoperative cell salvage, incisional negative pressure wound therapy (NPWT), intraoperative antibiotic powder use, heterotopic ossification prophylaxis, and pre- and postoperative venous thromboembolism (VTE) prophylaxis. RESULTS: A total of 126 articles pertaining to the preoperative, intraoperative and postoperative management of PAF were reviewed. Articles reviewed by topic include 13 articles pertaining to time to fixation, 23 on IVCF use, 14 on VTE prophylaxis, 20 on TXA use, 10 on cell salvage, 10 on iNPWT 14 on intraoperative antibiotic powder and 20 on HO prophylaxis. An additional eight articles were reviewed to describe background information. Five articles provided information for two or more treatment modalities and were therefore included in multiple categories when tabulating the number of articles reviewed per topic. CONCLUSION: The literature supports the use of radiation therapy for HO prophylaxis, early (< 5 days from injury) surgical intervention and the routine use of intraoperative TXA. The literature does not support the routine use of iNPWT or IVCF. There is inadequate information to make a recommendation regarding the use of cell salvage and wound infiltration with antibiotic powder. While the routine use of chemical VTE prophylaxis is recommended, there is insufficient evidence to recommend the optimal agent and duration of therapy.

Can machine learning models predict failure of revision total hip arthroplasty?

INTRODUCTION: Revision total hip arthroplasty (THA) represents a technically demanding surgical procedure which is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Understanding risk factors for failure of revision THA is of clinical importance to identify at-risk patients. This study aimed to develop and validate novel machine learning algorithms for the prediction of re-revision surgery for patients following revision total hip arthroplasty. METHODS: A total of 2588 consecutive patients that underwent revision THA was evaluated, including 408 patients (15.7%) with confirmed re-revision THA. Electronic patient records were manually reviewed to identify patient demographics, implant characteristics and surgical variables that may be associated with re-revision THA. Machine learning algorithms were developed to predict re-revision THA and these models were assessed by discrimination, calibration and decision curve analysis. RESULTS: The strongest predictors for re-revision THA as predicted by the four validated machine learning models were the American Society of Anaesthesiology score, obesity (> 35 kg/m2) and indication for revision THA. The four machine learning models all achieved excellent performance across discrimination (AUC > 0.80), calibration and decision curve analysis. Higher net benefits for all machine learning models were demonstrated, when compared to the default strategies of changing management for all patients or no patients. CONCLUSION: This study developed four machine learning models for the prediction of re-revision surgery for patients following revision total hip arthroplasty. The study findings show excellent model performance, highlighting the potential of these computational models to assist in preoperative patient optimization and counselling to improve revision THA patient outcomes. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III, case-control retrospective analysis.

Artificial neural networks for the prediction of transfusion rates in primary total hip arthroplasty.

BACKGROUND: Despite advancements in total hip arthroplasty (THA) and the increased utilization of tranexamic acid, acute blood loss anemia necessitating allogeneic blood transfusion persists as a post-operative complication. The prevalence of allogeneic blood transfusion in primary THA has been reported to be as high as 9%. Therefore, this study aimed to develop and validate novel machine learning models for the prediction of transfusion rates following primary total hip arthroplasty. METHODS: A total of 7265 consecutive patients who underwent primary total hip arthroplasty were evaluated using a single tertiary referral institution database. Patient charts were manually reviewed to identify patient demographics and surgical variables that may be associated with transfusion rates. Four state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms were developed to predict transfusion rates following primary THA, and these models were assessed by discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis. RESULTS: The factors most significantly associated with transfusion rates include tranexamic acid usage, bleeding disorders, and pre-operative hematocrit (< 33%). The four machine learning models all achieved excellent performance across discrimination (AUC > 0.78), calibration, and decision curve analysis. CONCLUSION: This study developed machine learning models for the prediction of patient-specific transfusion rates following primary total hip arthroplasty. The results represent a novel application of machine learning, and has the potential to improve outcomes and pre-operative planning. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: III, case-control retrospective analysis.

An updated systematic review on heart failure treatments for patients with renal impairment: the tide is not turning.

Advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) frequently aggravates heart failure (HF). However, these patients have inherently been excluded from most HF trials. We aim to provide updated estimates of the representation of patients with advanced CKD and the provision of baseline renal function indices in HF trials with a focused interest on the landmark trials. Updated systematic review was performed from the inception of MEDLINE to 31 December 2019 to identify all chronic HF randomized trials published in the three major cardiology and medical journals, respectively, which included mortality endpoint. The included studies were analysed based on the representativeness of the advanced CKD population and the reporting of baseline renal function. A total of 187 eligible randomized trials with 322,374 participants were included in our analysis. One hundred and six trials (56.7%) had exclusion criteria related to renal function, which remained a continuing trend-55.1% (27/49) from inception-2000, 53.4% (39/73) from 2001-2010 and 61.5% (40/65) from 2011 (P = 0.64). The exclusion criteria, however, have become less restrictive. There was a temporal improvement in the likelihood of HF trials in providing baseline renal function indices (28.6% from inception-2000 versus 53.4% from 2001-2010 and 83.1% from 2011, P < 0.001). Concordant findings were observed in the landmark trials. Patients with advanced CKD remain underrepresented in HF trials in the contemporary era, even though the exclusion criteria have become less restrictive, and the quality of renal function monitoring has improved. The continued underrepresentation of patients with advanced CKD in HF trials merits measured broadening of eligibility in further trial studies.

Artificial intelligence algorithms accurately predict prolonged length of stay following revision total knee arthroplasty.

PURPOSE: Although the average length of hospital stay following revision total knee arthroplasty (TKA) has decreased over recent years due to improved perioperative and intraoperative techniques and planning, prolonged length of stay (LOS) continues to be a substantial driver of hospital costs. The purpose of this study was to develop and validate artificial intelligence algorithms for the prediction of prolonged length of stay for patients following revision TKA. METHODS: A total of 2512 consecutive patients who underwent revision TKA were evaluated. Those patients with a length of stay greater than 75th percentile for all length of stays were defined as patients with prolonged LOS. Three artificial intelligence algorithms were developed to predict prolonged LOS following revision TKA and these models were assessed by discrimination, calibration and decision curve analysis. RESULTS: The strongest predictors for prolonged length of stay following revision TKA were age (> 75 years; p < 0.001), Charlson Comorbidity Index (> 6; p < 0.001) and body mass index (> 35 kg/m2; p < 0.001). The three artificial intelligence algorithms all achieved excellent performance across discrimination (AUC > 0.84) and decision curve analysis (p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: The study findings demonstrate excellent performance on discrimination, calibration and decision curve analysis for all three candidate algorithms. This highlights the potential of these artificial intelligence algorithms to assist in the preoperative identification of patients with an increased risk of prolonged LOS following revision TKA, which may aid in strategic discharge planning. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: IV.

The Significance of Race/Ethnicity and Income in Predicting Preoperative Patient-Reported Outcome Measures in Primary Total Joint Arthroplasty.

BACKGROUND: Utilization of total joint arthroplasty (TJA) by minorities is disproportionately low compared to Whites. Contributing factors include poorer outcomes, lower expectations, and decreased access to care. This study aimed to evaluate if race and income were predictive of preoperative patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) and the likelihood of achieving the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) following TJA. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed 1,371 patients who underwent primary TJA between January 2018 and March 2021 in a single healthcare system. Preoperative and postoperative PROM scores were collected for Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) Mental Health, PROMIS Physical Function (PF10a), and either Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) or Hip disability and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (HOOS). Demographic and comorbidity data were included as explanatory variables. Multivariable regression was used to analyze the association between predictive variables and PROM scores. RESULTS: Mean preoperative PROM scores were lower for non-Whites compared to Whites. Increased median household income was associated with higher preoperative PROM scores. Non-White race was associated with lower PROMIS Mental Health and KOOS, but not PF10a or HOOS scores. Only non-White race was associated with a decreased likelihood of achieving MCID for PF10a. Neither race nor income was predictive of achieving MCID for KOOS and HOOS. CONCLUSION: Non-White race/ethnicity and lower income were associated with lower preoperative PROMs prior to primary TJA. Continued research is necessary to identify the causes of this discrepancy and correct this disparity.

The Performance of Diagnostic Tests for Identifying Periprosthetic Joint Infection After Failed Partial Knee Arthroplasty.

BACKGROUND: Indications for unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA) and patello-femoral arthroplasty are expanding. Despite the lower published infection rates for UKA and patello-femoral arthroplasty than total knee arthroplasty, periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) remains a devastating complication and diagnostic thresholds for commonly utilized tests have not been investigated recently. Thus, this study evaluated if diagnostic thresholds for PJI in patients who had a failed partial knee arthroplasty (PKA) align more closely with previously reported thresholds specific to UKA or the 2018 International Consensus Meeting on Musculoskeletal Infection. METHODS: We identified 109 knees in 100 patients that underwent PKA with eventual conversion to total knee arthroplasty within a single healthcare system from 2000 to 2021. Synovial fluid nucleated cell count and synovial polymorphonuclear percentage in addition to preoperative serum erythrocyte sedimentation rate, serum C-reactive protein, and serum white blood cell count were compared with Student's t-tests between septic and aseptic cases. Receiver operating characteristic curves and Youden's index were used to assess diagnostic performance and the optimal cutoff point of each test. RESULTS: Synovial nucleated cell count, synovial polymorphonuclear percentage, and serum C-reactive protein demonstrated excellent discrimination for diagnosing PJI with an area under the curve of 0.97 and lower cutoff values than the previously determined UKA specific criteria. Serum erythrocyte sedimentation rateESR demonstrated good ability with an area under the curve of 0.89. CONCLUSION: Serum and synovial fluid diagnostic thresholds for PJI in PKAs align more closely with the thresholds established by the 2018 International Consensus Meeting as compared to previously proposed thresholds specific to UKA. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III, retrospective comparative study.

Prognostic usefulness of planar 123I-MIBG scintigraphic images of myocardial sympathetic innervation in congestive heart failure: Follow-Up data from ADMIRE-HF.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate whether planar 123I-MIBG myocardial scintigraphy predicts risk of death in heart failure (HF) patients up to 5 years after imaging. METHODS AND RESULTS: Subjects from ADMIRE-HF were followed for approximately 5 years after imaging (964 subjects, median follow-up 62.7 months). Subjects were stratified according to the heart/mediastinum (H/M) ratio (< 1.60 vs ≥ 1.60) on planar 123I-MIBG scintigraphic images obtained at baseline in ADMIRE-HF. Cox proportional hazards models and Kaplan-Meier analyses were used to evaluate time to death, cardiac death, or arrhythmic events for subjects stratified by H/M ratio, baseline left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF: < 25% and 25 to ≤ 35%), and by H/M strata within LVEF strata. All-cause mortality was 38.4% vs 20.9% and cardiac mortality was 16.8% vs 4.5%, in subjects with H/M < 1.60 vs ≥ 1.60, respectively (P < 0.05 for both comparisons). Subjects with preserved sympathetic innervation of the myocardium (H/M ≥ 1.60) were at significantly lower risk of all-cause and cardiac death, arrhythmic events, sudden cardiac death, or potentially life-threatening arrhythmias. Within LVEF strata, a trend toward a higher mortality for subjects with H/M < 1.60 was observed reaching significance for LVEF 25 to ≤ 35% only. CONCLUSIONS: During a median follow-up of 62.7 months, patients with H/M ≥ 1.60 were at significantly lower risk of death and arrhythmic events independently of LVEF values.

Time trends in sudden cardiac death risk in heart failure patients with cardiac resynchronization therapy: a systematic review.

AIMS: While data from randomized trials suggest a declining incidence of sudden cardiac death (SCD) among heart failure patients, the extent to which such a trend is present among patients with cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) has not been evaluated. We therefore assessed changes in SCD incidence, and associated factors, in CRT recipients over the last 20 years. METHODS AND RESULTS: Literature search from inception to 30 April 2018 for observational and randomized studies involving CRT patients, with or without defibrillator, providing specific cause-of-death data. Sudden cardiac death was the primary endpoint. For each study, rate of SCD per 1000 patient-years of follow-up was calculated. Trend line graphs were subsequently constructed to assess change in SCD rates over time, which were further analysed by device type, patient characteristics, and medical therapy. Fifty-three studies, comprising 22 351 patients with 60 879 patient-years of follow-up and a total of 585 SCD, were included. There was a gradual decrease in SCD rates since the early 2000s in both randomized and observational studies, with rates falling more than four-fold. The rate of decline in SCD was steeper than that of all-cause mortality, and accordingly, the proportion of deaths which were due to SCD declined over the years. The magnitude of absolute decline in SCD was more prominent among CRT-pacemaker (CRT-P) patients compared to those receiving CRT-defibrillator (CRT-D), with the difference in SCD rates between CRT-P and CRT-D decreasing considerably over time. There was a progressive increase in age, use of beta-blockers, and left ventricular ejection fraction, and conversely, a decrease in QRS duration and antiarrhythmic drug use. CONCLUSION: Sudden cardiac death rates have progressively declined in the CRT heart failure population over time, with the difference between CRT-D vs. CRT-P recipients narrowing considerably.

Regional Implicit Bias Does Not Account for Racial Disparity in Total Joint Arthroplasty Utilization.

BACKGROUND: Racial disparities surrounding the utilization of total hip and total knee arthroplasty (THA, TKA) are well documented. The Implicit Association Test (IAT) is a validated tool used to measure implicit and explicit bias. The purpose of this study is to evaluate if variations in IAT scores by geographical region in the United States (US) correspond with regional variations in THA and TKA utilization by blacks compared to whites. METHODS: Data from the US Census and National Inpatient Sample from 2012 to 2014 were used to calculate THA and TKA utilization rates among Medicare-aged blacks and whites. Data were aggregated by US Census Bureau Division. Regional implicit bias was assessed by calculating a weighted average of IAT scores for each division. RESULTS: Across all geographic regions and years, the surveyed population demonstrated an implicit bias favoring whites over blacks. The population adjusted ratio of white-to-black utilization of THA and TKA by geographic division varied between 0.86-1.85 and 0.87-2.01, respectively. The difference in utilization between geographic divisions reached statistical significance (P < .001). No correlation was found between the IAT scores and race-specific utilization ratios among geographic divisions. CONCLUSION: Implicit bias as measured by regional IAT did not reflect THA and TKA utilization disparities. The racial disparity in utilization of THA and TKA significantly varied between divisions. The observed disparity was greater in divisions with a relatively higher proportion of blacks. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate the impact of implicit bias on utilization of THA and TKA.

Modeling defibrillation benefit for survival among cardiac resynchronization therapy defibrillator recipients.

BACKGROUND: Patients with heart failure having a low expected probability of arrhythmic death may not benefit from implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs). OBJECTIVE: The objective was to validate models to identify cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) candidates who may not require CRT devices with ICD functionality. METHODS: Heart failure (HF) patients with CRT-Ds and non-CRT ICDs from the National Cardiovascular Data Registry and others with no device from 3 separate registries and 3 heart failure trials were analyzed using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression for survival with the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM; estimates overall mortality) and the Seattle Proportional Risk Model (SPRM; estimates proportional risk of arrhythmic death). RESULTS: Among 60,185 patients (age 68.6 ±â€¯11.3 years, 31.9% female) meeting CRT-D criteria, 38,348 had CRT-Ds, 11,389 had non-CRT ICDs, and 10,448 had no device. CRT-D patients had a prominent adjusted survival benefit (HR 0.52, 95% CI 0.50-0.55, P < .0001 versus no device). CRT-D patients with SHFM-predicted 4-year survival ≥81% (median) and a low SPRM-predicted probability of an arrhythmic mode of death ≤42% (median) had an absolute adjusted risk reduction attributable to ICD functionality of just 0.95%/year with the majority of survival benefit (70%) attributable to CRT pacing. In contrast, CRT-D patients with SHFM-predicted survival median had substantially more ICD-attributable benefit (absolute risk reduction of 2.6%/year combined; P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: The SPRM and SHFM identified a quarter of real-world, primary prevention CRT-D patients with minimal benefit from ICD functionality. Further studies to evaluate CRT pacemakers in these low-risk CRT candidates are indicated.

Prediction of sudden cardiac death in Japanese heart failure patients: international validation of the Seattle Proportional Risk Model.

AIMS: Heart failure (HF) is associated with an increased risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). This study sought to demonstrate the incidence of SCD within a multicentre Japanese registry of HF patients hospitalized for acute decompensation, and externally validate the Seattle Proportional Risk Model (SPRM). METHODS AND RESULTS: We consecutively registered 2240 acute HF patients from academic institutions in Tokyo, Japan. The discrimination and calibration of the SPRM were assessed by the c-statistic, Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic, and visual plotting among non-survivors. Patient-level SPRM predictions and implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) benefit [ICD estimated hazard ratio (HR), derived from the Cox proportional hazards model in the Sudden Cardiac Death in Heart Failure Trial (SCD-HeFT)] was calculated. During the 2-year follow-up, 356 deaths (15.9%) occurred, which included 76 adjudicated SCDs (3.4%) and 280 non-SCDs (12.5%). The SPRM showed acceptable discrimination [c-index = 0.63; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56-0.70], similar to that of original SPRM-derivation cohort. The calibration plot showed reasonable conformance. Among HF patients with reduced ejection fraction (EF; < 40%), SPRM showed improved discrimination compared with the ICD eligibility criteria (e.g. New York Heart Association functional Class II-III with EF ≤ 35%): c-index = 0.53 (95% CI 0.42-0.63) vs. 0.65 (95% CI 0.55-0.75) for SPRM. Finally, in the subgroup of 246 patients with both EF ≤ 35% and SPRM-predicted risk of ≥ 42.0% (SCD-HeFT defined ICD benefit threshold), mean ICD estimated HR was 0.70 (30% reduction of all-cause mortality by ICD). CONCLUSION: The cumulative incidence of SCD was 3.4% in Japanese HF registry. The SPRM performed reasonably well in Japanese patients and may aid in improving SCD prediction.

Tranexamic acid with a pre-operative suspension of anticoagulation decreases operative time and blood transfusion in the treatment of pelvic and acetabulum fractures.

PURPOSE: The purpose was to evaluate the impact of intra-operative administration of tranexamic acid (TXA) and pre-operative discontinuation of prophylactic chemoprophylaxis in patients undergoing internal fixation of pelvic or acetabular fractures on the need for subsequent blood transfusion. Operative time and the incidence of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE) were also assessed. METHODS: Data from a single level one trauma centre was retrospectively reviewed from January 2014 to December 2017 to identify pelvic ring or acetabular fractures managed operatively. Patients who did not receive their scheduled dose of chemoprophylaxis prior to surgery but who did receive intra-operative TXA were identified as the treatment group. Due to the interaction of VTE prophylaxis and TXA, the variables were analyzed using an interaction effect to account for administration of both individually and concomitantly. RESULTS: One hundred fifty-nine patients were included. The treatment group experienced a 20.7% reduction in blood product transfusion (regression coefficient (RC): - 0.207, p = 0.047, 95%CI: - 0.412 to - 0.003) and an average of 36 minutes (RC): - 36.90, p = 0.045, 95%CI: - 72.943 to - 0.841) reduction in surgical time as compared to controls. The treatment group did not experience differential rates of PE or DVT (RC: 1.302, p = 0.749, 95%CI: 0.259-6.546) or PE (RC: 1.024, p = 0.983, 95%CI: 0.114-9.208). CONCLUSIONS: In the study population, the combination of holding pre-operative chemoprophylaxis and administering intra-operative TXA is a safe and effective combination in reducing operative time and blood product transfusions.

Validation and Recalibration of Seattle Heart Failure Model in Japanese Acute Heart Failure Patients.

BACKGROUND: Precise risk stratification in heart failure (HF) patients enables clinicians to tailor the intensity of their management. The Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM), which uses conventional clinical variables for its prediction, is widely used. We aimed to externally validate SHFM in Japanese HF patients with a recent episode of acute decompensation requiring hospital admission. METHODS AND RESULTS: SHFM was applied to 2470 HF patients registered in the West Tokyo Heart Failure and National Cerebral And Cardiovascular Center Acute Decompensated Heart Failure databases from 2006 to 2016. Discrimination and calibration were assessed with the use of the c-statistic and calibration plots, respectively, in HF patients with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF; <40%) and preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF; ≥40%). In a perfectly calibrated model, the slope and intercept would be 1.0 and 0.0, respectively. The method of intercept recalibration was used to update the model. The registered patients (mean age 74 ± 13 y) were predominantly men (62%). Overall, 572 patients (23.2%) died during a mean follow-up of 2.1 years. Among HFrEF patients, SHFM showed good discrimination (c-statistic = 0.75) but miscalibration, tending to overestimate 1-year survival (slope = 0.78; intercept = -0.22). Among HFpEF patients, SHFM showed modest discrimination (c-statistic = 0.69) and calibration, tending to underestimate 1-year survival (slope = 1.18; intercept = 0.16). Intercept recalibration (replacing the baseline survival function) successfully updated the model for HFrEF (slope = 1.03; intercept = -0.04) but not for HFpEF patients. CONCLUSIONS: In Japanese acute HF patients, SHFM showed adequate performance after recalibration among HFrEF patients. Using prediction models to tailor the care for HF patients may improve the allocation of medical resources.

Significance of incidental intra-articular and peri-articular FDG avid foci on PET/CT.

BACKGROUND: Positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) is a useful imaging adjunct in patients with sarcoma. Intra-articular and peri-articular 18F-fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose (FDG) avid lesions are often discovered incidentally. PURPOSE: To describe the etiology, appearance, and standardized uptake values (SUV) of incidentally detected FDG avid intra-articular and peri-articular foci in patients with sarcoma. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The institutional sarcoma database between November 2011 and November 2016 was retrospectively reviewed. Patients were included if a PET/CT scan was performed and an FDG avid intra-articular or peri-articular focus was found that was distinct from the primary sarcoma. RESULTS: The majority of FDG avid foci represented benign, non-physiologic conditions such as osteoarthritis, enthesopathy, bursitis, and post-surgical changes. Six patients each had radiographic features consistent with tenosynovial giant cell tumor (TSGCT) and metastatic disease, respectively. Lower SUV, bilateral findings, and the absence of metastatic disease elsewhere were associated with benign etiologies. There was a statistically significant difference between the mean SUV measured in patients with TSGCT and those with benign, non-physiologic conditions ( P < 0.001). The difference between the benign, non-physiologic cohort and the cohort with widespread metastatic disease did not reach statistical significance ( P = 0.07). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with soft-tissue or osseous sarcomas, isolated FDG avid intra-articular or peri-articular foci without additional metastatic lesions likely represent benign processes. Isolated intra-articular or peri-articular foci with significantly elevated SUV measurements were favored to represent TSGCT in this series.

Opioid Disorders Are Associated With Thromboemboli Following Primary Total Knee Arthroplasty.

BACKGROUND: Opioid use disorder (OUD) is defined as a problematic pattern of opioid abuse and dependency leading to problems or distress. The purpose of this study is to investigate whether OUD patients undergoing primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA) have higher rates of venous thromboembolisms (VTEs), readmissions, and costs of care. METHODS: Patients undergoing TKA with OUD were identified and matched to controls in a 1:4 ratio according to age, gender, comorbidity index, and comorbidities within the Medicare database. Ninety-day VTEs, 90-day readmissions, and costs of care were compared. A P-value less than .01 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: The study yielded 54,480 patients with (n = 10,929) and without (n = 43,551) OUD undergoing primary TKA. Matching was successful as there were no significant differences in baseline characteristics. OUD patients were found to have greater odds of VTEs (odds ratio 2.27, P < .0001) 90 days following primary TKA. OUD patients were found to have greater odds of 90-day readmissions (odds ratio 1.39, P < .0001) in addition to incurring higher day of surgery ($13,360.73 vs $11,911.94, P < .0001) and 90-day costs ($18,380.89 vs $15,565.57, P < .0001) compared to controls. CONCLUSION: After adjusting for confounders, this analysis of 54,480 patients identified that patients with OUD have higher rates of VTEs, readmissions, and costs following primary TKA. In addition to using these data to help educate and counsel patients, the study should be used to help further regulate and control opioid prescriptions written by healthcare professionals.

Sleep Apnea Increases Ninety-Day Complications and Cost Following Primary Total Joint Arthroplasty.

BACKGROUND: Sleep apnea (SA) negatively affects bone mineralization, cognition, and immunity. There is paucity in the literature regarding the impact of SA on total joint arthroplasty (TJA). The purpose of this study is to compare complications in patients with and without SA undergoing either total knee (TKA) or total hip arthroplasty (THA). METHODS: A retrospective review from 2005 to 2014 was conducted using the Medicare Standard Analytical Files. Patients with and without SA on the day of the primary TJA were queried using the International Classification of Diseases, ninth revision codes. Patients were matched by age, gender, Charlson Comorbidity Index), and body mass index. Patients were followed for 2 years after their surgery. Ninety-day medical complications, complications related to implant, readmission rates, length of stay, and 1-year mortality were quantified and compared. Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) with their respective 95% confidence interval and P values. RESULTS: After the random matching process there were 529,240 patients (female = 271,656, male = 252,106, unknown = 5478) with (TKA = 189,968, THA = 74,652) and without (TKA = 189,968, THA = 74,652) SA who underwent primary TJA between 2005 and 2014. Patients with SA had greater odds of developing medical complications following TKA (OR 3.71) or THA (OR 2.48). CONCLUSION: The study illustrates an increased risk of developing postoperative complications in patients with SA following primary TJA. Surgeons should educate patients on these adverse effects and encourage the use of continuous positive airway pressure which has been shown to mitigate many postoperative complications.

Prophylactic inferior vena cava filters for operative pelvic fractures: a twelve year experience.

INTRODUCTION: Conflicting evidence exists regarding the role of inferior vena cava filters (IVCFs) in the prevention of pulmonary embolism. The aim of this study was to review an institutional policy of prophylactic IVCF placement in all operative pelvic and acetabular fractures as a means of preventing PE by comparing it to a historical prepolicy period of significantly less aggressive IVCF placement. METHODS: The trauma registry of a single level 1 trauma center was retrospectively queried for all pelvic or acetabular fractures for the prepolicy and intervention periods as defined as January 2003-December 2008 and January 2009-December 2014, respectively-yielding 231 patients for analysis. The primary and secondary outcomes measured were the incidence of PE and deep vein thrombosis. RESULTS: The rate of prophylactic IVCF insertion significantly increased during the study period (p < 0.001). The incidence of pulmonary embolism (1.8% vs. 5.1%, p = 0.351) and DVT (19.3% vs. 10.3%, p = 0.231) were not significantly different when comparing the prepolicy and intervention cohorts. In patients with operative fractures, a nonsignificant trend of increasing incidence of DVTs was appreciated in patients with a prophylactic IVCF versus those without prophylactic IVCF (13 vs. 2, p = 0.222). DISCUSSION: A policy of increased use of prophylactic IVCFs in patients with operative pelvic and acetabular fractures failed to reduce the incidence of PE or DVT. In contrast, several case reports and institutional series have published several risks associated with IVCF placement including failure to retrieve temporary IVCF. CONCLUSION: The benefit of prophylactic IVCF in this patient population is unclear.